Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Start 2025 With 4% Increase in January (pay site). There did not appear to be an end-of-month boost in demand, either as a rebound from the mid-month weather-related losses or pull-ahead volume in case of still-possible future tariff-related price increases. However, January’s gain marked the fourth straight year-over-year increase in volume and fifth consecutive for the seasonally adjusted annual rate. Click on graph for larger image. Sales in January (15.60 million SAAR) were down 7.1% from December, and up 3.8% from January 2024. Sales in January were at the consensus forecast. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. This was the best January since 2021.

From the Federal Reserve: The January 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The January 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the fourth quarter of 2024. tighter lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes. Meanwhile, banks reported stronger demand for C&I loans to large and middle-market firms, while demand for C&I loans to small firms remained basically unchanged. Furthermore, banks generally reported tighter standards and basically unchanged demand for commercial real estate (CRE) loans. unchanged lending standards and weaker demand across most categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans. In addition, standards reportedly tightened for credit card loans and remained basically unchanged for auto and other consumer loans, while demand weakened for credit card and other consumer loans but remained basically unchanged for auto loans. Further, banks reported basically unchanged lending standards and demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. This graph is for demand and shows that demand has been weak since late 2021. The left graph is from 1990 to 2014.  The right graph is from 2015 to Q4 2024.

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011” Brief excerpt: Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 3.4% year-over-year in December. Source: ICE Home Price Index (HPI) • Annual home price growth edged slightly higher in December, closing out the year at +3.4% • That marks the lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011 when the housing market was nearing its trough following the Great Financial Crisis • In fact, 2024’s growth was a full percentage point below the +4.4% growth seen in both 2014 and 2018, which were previously the lowest growth years in the past decade • The modest uptick in December’s annual home price growth rate was a result of softer price gains in late 2023 rolling out of the backward-looking 12-month window, rather than a strengthening of prices in December • On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose by 0.2% in the month, roughly equivalent November, and slightly below October, following the brief dip in 30-year rates to near 6% in the lead-up to the Fed’s 50 bps rate cut in September • If current seasonally adjusted monthly gains persist, the annual home price growth rate is poised to begin cooling again in the early months of 2025 There is much more in the mortgage monitor including an extensive analysis of the financial impact of the California wildfires. There is much more in the newsletter.

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.9% in January, up from 49.2% in December. The employment index was at 50.3%, up from 45.4% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 55.1%, up from 52.1%. Manufacturing PMI® at 50.9% January 2025 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January after 26 consecutive months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.9 percent in January, 1.7 percentage points higher compared to the seasonally adjusted 49.2 percent recorded in December. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 57th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index was in expansion territory for the third month after seven months of contraction, strengthening again to a reading of 55.1 percent, 3 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 52.1 percent recorded in December. The January reading of the Production Index (52.5 percent) is 2.6 percentage points higher than December’s seasonally adjusted figure of 49.9 percent. The index returned to expansion after eight months in contraction. The Prices Index continued in expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 54.9 percent, up 2.4 percentage points compared to the reading of 52.5 percent in December. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44.9 percent, down 1 percentage point compared to the 45.9 percent recorded in December. The Employment Index registered 50.3 percent, up 4.9 percentage points from December’s seasonally adjusted figure of 45.4 percent. emphasis added This suggests manufacturing expanded in January.  This was above the consensus forecast.