Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.5, up from 49.3 in December. Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending. Light vehicle sales for January. Sales were at 16.8 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Wards expects vehicle sales to decrease to 15.6 million SAAR in January. Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS). Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 95 and DOW futures are down 470 (fair value). WTI futures at $74.05 per barrel and Brent at $76.39 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $72, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil prices are up about 3% year-over-year. Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.05 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.15 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.10 year-over-year.

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Start 2025 With 4% Increase in January (pay site). There did not appear to be an end-of-month boost in demand, either as a rebound from the mid-month weather-related losses or pull-ahead volume in case of still-possible future tariff-related price increases. However, January’s gain marked the fourth straight year-over-year increase in volume and fifth consecutive for the seasonally adjusted annual rate. Click on graph for larger image. Sales in January (15.60 million SAAR) were down 7.1% from December, and up 3.8% from January 2024. Sales in January were at the consensus forecast. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. This was the best January since 2021.

Topics, reading, and speakers.

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 January As expected with the MLK Day holiday, the U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 25 January. ... 119-25 January 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 54.3% (-3.4%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Click on graph for larger image. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue). Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. This is the weakest period of the year for hotel occupancy and the 4-week average will increase seasonally for the next few months.