From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Fell 5.5% in December Pending home sales retracted 5.5% in December – following four consecutive months of increases – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions experienced month-over-month losses in transactions, with the most significant fall in the West. Year-over-year, contract signings reduced in all four U.S. regions, with the Midwest seeing the largest decrease. Year-over-year, pending transactions declined 5.0%. Last year’s cyclical low point occurred in July 2024 at 70.2. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. emphasis added Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in January and February.

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. Real GDP increased 2.8 percent in 2024 (from the 2023 annual level to the 2024 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in 2023. The increase in real GDP in 2024 reflected increases in consumer spending, investment, government spending, and exports. Imports increased. emphasis added PCE increased at a 4.2% annual rate, and residential investment increased at a 5.3% rate. The advance Q4 GDP report, with 2.3% annualized increase, was below expectations. I'll have more later ...

The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 212,500. The previous week was unrevised. Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and Year 2024 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.6% annualized in Q4. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 228 thousand from 223 thousand last week. Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 1.0% decrease in the index.