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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade...
11 hours ago
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11 hours ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade deficit​. ----- Monday, February 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.5, up from 49.3 in December. 10:00 AM:...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Radio, Startups, History, Bally's, Dead Internet, Caesars
8 hours ago
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
5 hours ago
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5 hours ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022...
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches o3-mini: A Faster, More Affordable AI Reasoning Model OpenAI has just unveiled o3-mini, the latest addition to its "reasoning" model family.
2 days ago
Calculated Risk
Initial Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-high 2% Range From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)...
2 days ago
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2 days ago
From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate at +2.3%. We launched our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate at +2.3%, in line with the advance reading. [Jan 31st estimate] emphasis...
Musings on Markets
DeepSeek crashes the AI Party: Story Break, Change or Shift? I am going to start this post with a confession that my knowledge of the architecture and mechanics...
2 days ago
2
2 days ago
I am going to start this post with a confession that my knowledge of the architecture and mechanics of AI are pedestrian and that there will be things that I don't get right in this post. That said, DeepSeek's abrupt entry into the AI conversation has the potential to change the...
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
2 days ago
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2 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.54% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
The Diff
Capital-Intensity and Legibility Plus! AI as Half an Interface; Network Effects and Boycotts; OpenAI and Structure; Strategic...
2 days ago
2
2 days ago
Plus! AI as Half an Interface; Network Effects and Boycotts; OpenAI and Structure; Strategic Reserves; Meta says Yes to Jevons
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.4% in December; Spending increased 0.7% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased...
2 days ago
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2 days ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $92.0 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in December, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal...
The Diff
Test-Time Compute Scaling Drives the AI Jevons Paradox Plus! AI Price Discrimination; Openness; Disclosure; Arbitrage; Meta
3 days ago
Calculated Risk
BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.3% Annualized Rate in Q4 From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Advance Estimate) Real gross...
3 days ago
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3 days ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S....
Mazdak
U.S. Copyright Office Rules on AI: What It Means for Creators and Businesses Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming creative industries, but it has also raised serious...
4 days ago
Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.8% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below...
4 days ago
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4 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the November Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
Mazdak
OpenAI vs. DeepSeek: The AI Arms Race Heats Up The battle for artificial intelligence supremacy has taken a new turn, and it’s raising major...
4 days ago
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4 days ago
The battle for artificial intelligence supremacy has taken a new turn, and it’s raising major concerns about intellectual property, competition, and the future of AI development.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
4 days ago
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4 days ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 24, 2025....
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2025: Interest Rates, Inflation and Central Banks! It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more...
5 days ago
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5 days ago
It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more evidence on the limited power that central banks have to alter the trajectory of market interest rates. We started 2024 with the consensus wisdom that rates would drop during the year,...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024 From the MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024...
5 days ago
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5 days ago
From the MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024 Delinquency rates for mortgages backed by commercial properties increased during the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest commercial real...
The Diff
There is an "AI Factor," and It's Worth Hedging Plus! Sweeteners; The American Difference; AI Experiments; Media Relations; Sanctions are Hard,...
5 days ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
5 days ago
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5 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing...
Citation Needed
Trump’s Project 2025 ghostwriters Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked...
6 days ago
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6 days ago
Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked Trump devotees are writing policies at federal agencies.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 6.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar...
6 days ago
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6 days ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 18 January. ... 12-18 January 2025 (percentage change from...
The Diff
The New National Champions Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile;...
6 days ago
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
6 days ago
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6 days ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 698 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in December 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2025: The times they are a'changin'! In my first two data posts for 2025, I looked at the strong year that US equities had in 2024, but a...
a week ago
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a week ago
In my first two data posts for 2025, I looked at the strong year that US equities had in 2024, but a very good year for the overall market does not always translate into equivalent returns across segments of the market. In this post, I will remain focused on US equities, but I...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: No Change to Policy Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at...
a week ago
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a week ago
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to be on hold at the January, March and May meetings, with the next rate cut in May. From BofA: We...
Mazdak
How DeepSeek, a Chinese AI Startup, is Challenging the Titans of Silicon Valley In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western...
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
a week ago
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a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Tech Right, 10 bits, Smart Screens, AI, Gambling, Memes, Soviet Magic
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales,...
a week ago
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a week ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales, December Personal Income and Outlays and November Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, January 27th ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is...
Bits about Money
A very Chicago gamble Chicago and Bally's have teamed up in an investment offering.
a week ago
Calculated Risk
January Vehicle Forecast: Sales Decline to 15.6 million SAAR, Up 4% YoY From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay...
a week ago
5
a week ago
From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay content).  Brief excerpt: While demand in the middle of the month was negatively impacted by extreme weather conditions across most of the country, with a week remaining in January...
Citation Needed
Issue 75 – Absolutely preposterous Trump horrifies even some of his crypto-steeped fans by launching a memecoin before his...
a week ago
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a week ago
Trump horrifies even some of his crypto-steeped fans by launching a memecoin before his inauguration, and a flurry of activity from the new administration signals what’s in store for the crypto world in the next four years.
The Diff
Venture Global as a Well-Structured Trade Plus! Agents; Capital Returns; Creator Underwriting; Crypto Plays; Airlines
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24...
a week ago
5
a week ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Sales in December (4.24 million SAAR) were up 2.2% from the previous month and were 9.3% above the December 2023 sales rate. This was the third consecutive...
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches Operator: The AI Agent That Works Autonomously (Why this could be the start of a new era for AI tools)
a week ago
Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a week ago
3
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Here are a few more local markets before the NAR releases December Existing Home sales tomorrow, Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. This will be the 3rd...
The Diff
Planting a Flag Plus! Buildouts; Growth and Churn; Targeting Tweaks; DeepSeek; European Banks
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 6,000 from the...
a week ago
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a week ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,500, an increase of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 212,750. emphasis added The...
Mazdak
LinkedIn Faces Lawsuit Over Alleged Data Use for AI Training In a rapidly evolving digital landscape, privacy and data usage are hot topics—and LinkedIn,...
a week ago
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a week ago
In a rapidly evolving digital landscape, privacy and data usage are hot topics—and LinkedIn, Microsoft’s business-focused social media platform, is at the center of the latest debate.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a week ago
6
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 215 thousand from 201 thousand last week. Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for January.
Mazdak
Meta's Oakley Smart Glasses, TikTok's Revenue Nearly Doubled YouTube's Last Year, Hidden Hashtags on... “What if Elon Musk or Larry Ellison bought TikTok?”
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders Bonds...
a week ago
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a week ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders Bonds were thus able to hold onto the gains from last week with some additional improvement today. The average mortgage lender wasn't eager to adjust rates, however, with the top tier...
The Diff
General-Purpose Technologies Revalue Natural Resources Plus! Meme Coins; Fees; Platforms; Opportunistic Offers; Private Accounting Fraud
a week ago
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a week ago
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a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release December Existing Home sales on Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million in...
Mazdak
TikTok, Netflix, and the Future of Media: Key Insights from 2024's Biggest Winners In 2024, the global media landscape experienced monumental shifts, with platforms like TikTok and...
a week ago
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a week ago
In 2024, the global media landscape experienced monumental shifts, with platforms like TikTok and Netflix setting unprecedented benchmarks in user engagement, ad revenue, and growth.
Calculated Risk
Monday Night Futures Tuesday: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair...
a week ago
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a week ago
Tuesday: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair value).
Citation Needed
No, Trump didn’t make $50 billion from his memecoin Journalists’ flawed math and ignorance of crypto markets turn tokens into fake fortunes
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 24.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always...
a week ago
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a week ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If the previous week was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has...
Mazdak
OpenAI’s Ph.D.-Level Super Agents The AI landscape is evolving at breakneck speed, and OpenAI is leading the charge.
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 7.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 January The U.S. hotel industry reported negative...
a week ago
18
a week ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 January The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 11 January. ... 5-11 January 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 49.2%...
Mazdak
Perplexity AI’s Bold Move to Merge with TikTok As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a...
a week ago
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a week ago
As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a surprising yet intriguing bidder to merge with TikTok US.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts Down 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December Part 1: Current...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025 The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, January 20th ----- All US...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, January 20th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day "Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter." Martin Luther King Jr. ----- Tuesday,...
Citation Needed
Issue 74 – Stop asking me questions like “where does the yield come from” Regulators and lawmakers eagerly prepare to abdicate any last traces of interest in the wellbeing of...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Regulators and lawmakers eagerly prepare to abdicate any last traces of interest in the wellbeing of everyday Americans as they suck up to the powerful billionaires who will soon be publicly calling the shots.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2025: The Party Continued (for US Equities) In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years,...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025. That rise was driven by a surge in US equity...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.0% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up...
2 weeks ago
16
2 weeks ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up three-tenths to 2.1% q/q saar. [Jan 17th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.6%...
Mazdak
Whatever Happens to TikTok, Big Tech is Coming for Its Millions of Creators TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing an uncertain future in the United States.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December,...
2 weeks ago
12
2 weeks ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December, unchanged from November’s preliminary pace and up 7.0% from last December’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a somewhat higher YOY % gain, reflecting this...
The Diff
Meme Markets Plus! Equity Comp, Squared; Venture Debt; 5%; Crypto Leverage; Closed-End Funds
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million...
2 weeks ago
14
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in December were above expectations and starts in October and November were revised up. Total starts were down 4.4% in...
Mazdak
Biden Not to Block TikTok, Apple's Credit Card Dilemma, Google Says No to EU Rules, ... The Biden administration has decided not to enforce the law that could force TikTok to go dark in...
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts...
2 weeks ago
17
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts for December. The consensus is for 1.315 million SAAR, up from 1.289 million SAAR. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase...
Mazdak
Can Google’s Gemini Overtake ChatGPT in the AI Race? Google’s Gemini, the tech giant’s flagship AI chatbot, has been making headlines lately.
2 weeks ago
The Diff
Two Models of Forward-Deployed Engineers Plus! Corporate VC; The New AI Model; The New AI Model, Continued; The Long But Volatile March;...
2 weeks ago
Mazdak
Google Challenges EU’s New Disinformation Rules In a bold move that could reshape the future of content moderation, Google has informed the European...
2 weeks ago
16
2 weeks ago
In a bold move that could reshape the future of content moderation, Google has informed the European Union it will not incorporate fact-checking into its search results or YouTube rankings, despite the requirements of the EU’s new Disinformation Code of Practice.
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence "Edges Up" in January The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47,...
2 weeks ago
12
2 weeks ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47, up from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Edges Up Even as Market Risk Concerns...
Mazdak
Apple’s Credit Card Shakeup: A Look at the Future of Fintech Partnerships In 2019, Apple and Goldman Sachs partnered to launch the Apple Card, a bold move that combined...
2 weeks ago
18
2 weeks ago
In 2019, Apple and Goldman Sachs partnered to launch the Apple Card, a bold move that combined technology and finance to offer a seamless credit experience.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Homebuider Survey Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
2 weeks ago
16
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 215 thousand from 201 thousand last week. Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released.  The...
Mazdak
The $50 Billion TikTok Dilemma: ByteDance’s Next Move in the U.S. In the world of social media, few platforms have experienced a meteoric rise like TikTok.
2 weeks ago
Bits about Money
Bits about Money yearly recap and plans What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately" Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal...
2 weeks ago
17
2 weeks ago
Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew...
Mazdak
Bluesky’s Next Big Move: Introducing the Photo-Sharing App Flashes A new contender for the future of decentralized social media
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
2 weeks ago
16
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts...
Mazdak
Workspace AI Features Now Included for Free Google has just dropped a major announcement that’s set to reshape how we use AI-powered...
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in November The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
2 weeks ago
14
2 weeks ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.8% (down from 3.9% YoY in November), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (down slightly from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy...
Mazdak
Big Tech Layoffs, Musk Acquiring TikTok, ChatGPT's New Features, ... Meta is executing a strategic 5% workforce reduction, but this isn't your typical layoff.
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: CPI, NY Fed Mfg, Beige Book Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
2 weeks ago
15
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Consumer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be...
The Diff
Good Accounting is a Positive Externality Plus! Crossovers; Politics: Back on Meta; Structure; Gradual Tariffs; Property Rights
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
CPI Preview The Consumer Price Index for December is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for...
2 weeks ago
19
2 weeks ago
The Consumer Price Index for December is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.3% YoY. We expect a 0.25% increase in December...
The Diff
The Economics of Logos Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost...
2 weeks ago
22
2 weeks ago
Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost Avoidance; State AI Investment
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 weeks ago
19
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Commoncog
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota on Human-AI Symbiosis Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented...
2 weeks ago
21
2 weeks ago
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented approach to AI in real world domains.
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are...
2 weeks ago
25
2 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are unchanged and DOW futures are up 68 (fair value). WTI futures at $76.57 per barrel and Brent at $79.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $73, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Longreads Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in...
3 weeks ago
23
3 weeks ago
Longreads Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in doing what was previously thought to be impossible. It's not so much a unified theory of extreme effort as it is a comprehensive refutation of the existence of such theories. There...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 12, 2024 The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts. ----- Monday, January...
3 weeks ago
23
3 weeks ago
The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts. ----- Monday, January 13th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, January 14th ----- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December. Producer Price Index for December...
Mazdak
OpenAI Ventures into Robotics, Grok App Launch, Trump Convicted, and US Jobs Report Highlights Big robotics news from OpenAI 🤖
3 weeks ago
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2025: The Draw (and Danger) of Data For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
For the last four decades, I have spent the first week of each year collecting and analyzing data on publicly traded companies and sharing what I find with anyone who is interested. It is the end of the first full week in 2025, and my data update for the year is now up and...
Calculated Risk
Goldman on Employment Report and FOMC A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well above consensus expectations. ... The household survey was also strong. The unemployment rate fell 0.15pp to 4.09%, reflecting a 478k gain in household employment and an unchanged...
Citation Needed
Issue 73 – Degen volunteer fire brigade Terra founder Do Kwon is finally extradited, the CFPB proposes crypto consumer protections, and...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Terra founder Do Kwon is finally extradited, the CFPB proposes crypto consumer protections, and Polymarket reaches new lows.
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.8% to 2.7% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three tenths to 1.8% q/q saar. The final estimate of 3Q GDP came in at 3.1% q/q saar, close to our tracking of 3.0%. [Jan 10th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP...
The Diff
The Loneliness Economy Wins Through Higher Sustained Productivity Growth Plus! Bond Vigilantes; Deeper AI Search; Analysts; Shareholder Votes; Networks are Expensive to...
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Comments on December Employment Report The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however,...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined.   The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate...
Mazdak
Google & Microsoft $1M donation to Trump inauguration fund, Microsoft job cuts, Amazon ad business... Google, Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI, and even Tim Cook are each donating $1M to President-elect Trump’s...
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
The Diff
Moderation, Inside and Out Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More...
3 weeks ago
23
3 weeks ago
Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More Round-Trips
Calculated Risk
December Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. From Goldman Sachs: We expect a below-consensus 125k increase in payrolls (vs. +160k consensus) in...
Commoncog
The 2024 Commoncog Recap Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
3 weeks ago
Mazdak
Meta's Shifting Approach to Politics and Content Moderation Meta is backtracking on its political content policy.
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 143,000, down from 146,000 jobs added in...
The Diff
Time Arbitrage and SaaS Pricing Power Plus! Search UX; Mining Crypto; Moderation; News is a Distribution Business; AI as UI
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings "Little Unchanged" at 8.1 million in November From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations were little changed at 5.3...
FIRE v London
Dec ’24 – 2024 in review And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024....
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024. I’ll follow the 7 point approach I’ve used for the last few years, starting with the wider market context. Q1 How did markets do? December saw falls across most asset classes –...
Mazdak
Trudeau's resignation, Dana White joining Meta's board, YouTube taking on TikTok, SuperIntelligence... After nearly a decade in leadership, Justin Trudeau announced his decision to step down as Prime...
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings, ISM Services From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week The bond...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week The bond market and interest rates have arrived at the first full week of the new year almost exactly where they left off before the X-mas/New Year holiday weeks. ... Although the past 2...
The Rational Walk
A Quarter Century of Investing Lessons learned from a quarter century of active investing, along with annual performance...
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 10% YoY in December This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
3 weeks ago
25
3 weeks ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 422 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
The Diff
Credentialism and the Money Illusion Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and...
3 weeks ago
25
3 weeks ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and Downside of Ads; Backcasting Returns
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 6th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory will...
3 weeks ago
25
3 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.   The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
4 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 5, 2024 The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday. ----- Monday, January 6th...
4 weeks ago
23
4 weeks ago
The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday. ----- Monday, January 6th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, January 7th ----- 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor...
Mazdak
Meta's Fake AI Profiles, the TikTok Ban, Telegram Updates, and Microsoft's $80 Billion AI Investment... Meta's AI Experiment: What Went Wrong?
4 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.80 million SAAR in December Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End...
4 weeks ago
24
4 weeks ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End 2024 With Long-Time High December, Q4 SAARs (pay site). December’s 6% year-over-year rise in the daily selling rate capped off a fourth quarter rebound after demand dropped in Q2...
The Diff
The Large- and Small-Home Market Advantages Plus! Who Bears Ban Risk?; Carvana and Short-Selling Economics; VC; Productivity; A More Normal...
4 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 49.3% in December (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3%...
4 weeks ago
24
4 weeks ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3% in December, up from 48.4% in November. The employment index was at 45.3%, down from 48.1% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 52.5%, up from 50.4%. Manufacturing...
Citation Needed
Elon Musk and the right’s war on Wikipedia The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part...
a month ago
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a month ago
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part of an intensifying campaign against free and open access information.
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
a month ago
22
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.56% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
The Diff
In Credit Underwriting, Better is Worse Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Mostly Unchanged in November From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending...
a month ago
24
a month ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November...
Citation Needed
Not just one bad apple: FTX's practices were business as usual in crypto Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret...
a month ago
37
a month ago
Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret acquisitions of “grey area” businesses, buying influence, and creative accounting.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 21 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
a month ago
24
a month ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 21 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 21 December. ... 15-21 December 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): Occupancy:...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The...
a month ago
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a month ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The Stoic Emperor, The Intelligent Investor, The Trail, and more.
Calculated Risk
Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025? Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with...
a month ago
25
a month ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
Citation Needed
Issue 72 – A seat at the table The SEC is still busy even though it may soon be undermined, crypto industry capture of government...
a month ago
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a month ago
The SEC is still busy even though it may soon be undermined, crypto industry capture of government continues to worsen, and several media outlets botch their crypto reporting at a time it’s needed most.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Richmond Fed...
a month ago
29
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.
The Diff
Economic Lessons from the Last Few Singularities Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
a month ago
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
a month ago
21
a month ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
Mazdak
Can Quantum Break Crypto? Trump to Rescue TikTok? Tech in Defence ... Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Monday: New Home Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Ten Economic Questions for 2025 Chicago Fed National...
a month ago
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a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Ten Economic Questions for 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data. Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease. New Home Sales for November from...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! ----- Monday, December 23rd ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National...
a month ago
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a month ago
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! ----- Monday, December 23rd ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data. ----- Tuesday, December 24th ----- 8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.4%...
The Diff
The Nvidia Way is the Regular Way, Just Faster Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese...
a month ago
37
a month ago
Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese Characteristics
Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.8% YoY in November Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
a month ago
32
a month ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2024. CPI Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in November, down from 4.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
The Diff
Meta's Least-Untrusted Clone Model Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More...
a month ago
38
a month ago
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More YouTube AI IP
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase...
a month ago
29
a month ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase Since June 2021 Existing-home sales grew in November, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and remained steady in the...
Citation Needed
Businessweek: Crypto Got What It Wanted in November’s Election. Now What? The industry is now in a position to weaken financial rules that might protect consumers from the...
a month ago
The Diff
Infrastructure on top of Infrastructure Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous...
a month ago
46
a month ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous Consumption Baskets as Subtle Union-Busting; Second-Order Effects
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged in December The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46,...
a month ago
28
a month ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46, unchanged from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder sentiment held steady to end the year as high home...
Mazdak
Waymo in Japan, Veo 2 AI video, Snapchat Monetization ... Google DeepMind has upped the game in AI video generation.
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week...
a month ago
36
a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. In fact, on a few...
The Diff
What Would it Look Like if The Pod Shop Model Blew Up? Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 16th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 26.6% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week.  Inventory is now...
a month ago
39
a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week.  Inventory is now 7.7% below the peak for the year (8 weeks ago). Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Kotkin, Luttwak, Poker, DRW, PCs, Statistics, AI, Hamilton
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024 The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd...
a month ago
26
a month ago
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. ----- Monday, December 16th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
The Diff
That Top-of-Cycle Feeling Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.3% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to...
a month ago
22
a month ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to 3.0% q/q saar. Additionally, our 4Q US GDP tracker was unchanged at 2.1% q/q saar. [Dec 13th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final...
Mazdak
Big Tech Donating to Trump's Inaugural Fund, Teens' Online Habits, More Tech Updates Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on...
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Friday: No major economic releases scheduled Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • No...
a month ago
22
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • No major economic releases scheduled.
The Diff
Just Another Risk Asset Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
a month ago
23
a month ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence, Gemini 2.0, Amazon Autos and more Apple just redefined how we use Siri.
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q3 Flow of Funds Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
23
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for November from the BLS. The...
Musings on Markets
For the fun of it: An Open House for my Spring 2025 Classes I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me...
a month ago
52
a month ago
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me in the classes that I teach at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Since I teach these classes only in the spring, and the first sessions for each of the classes...
The Diff
How High Does AI's Revenue Per User Get? Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't...
a month ago
26
a month ago
Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't Scale Yet; Complete Markets; Legitimacy and Growth
Commoncog
Power and Asian Business The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
a month ago
55
a month ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
Mazdak
Google Quantum Computer, OpenAI Sora Video Generator and more ... Google just dropped a bombshell in quantum computing.
a month ago
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?) Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
a month ago
63
a month ago
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
Mazdak
Cloudflare 2024 Internet Report Analysis Join us as we break down Cloudflare's groundbreaking report and expose fascinating trends in...
a month ago
36
a month ago
Join us as we break down Cloudflare's groundbreaking report and expose fascinating trends in internet traffic, security, and adoption.
The Rational Walk
The Cost of Corporate Security The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that...
a month ago
54
a month ago
The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that justifies higher corporate spending to protect executives.
The Diff
Social Media as a Test of Human-in-the-Loop Generative AI Plus! Holdcos; Cash and Control; War Economies; In-Kind Dividends; Currency
a month ago