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The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a business outcome. Capital allocation matters because it allows you more skill, less luck, on the journey to a large outcome.
a year ago

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Outcome Orientation as a Cure for Information Overload

A simple, effective — though not easy! — technique for solving information overload. Written from practice.

4 days ago 8 votes
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More in finance

February 21st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Declining

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations. COVID Metrics  NowWeek AgoGoal Deaths per Week859953≤3501 1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023. Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2023 (low of 314 deaths), I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are once again below the goal. Weekly deaths are now decreasing following the winter pickup. And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of February 20th: This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has moving down recently. Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Moderate", down from "High" last week, according to the CDC.

21 hours ago 3 votes
Longreads + Open Thread

Types, Ellison, AI, YouTube, Private Credit, Globalization, Lending, Huawei

4 hours ago 1 votes
Berkshire Hathaway’s Culture in 2050

By mid-century, changes in Berkshire Hathaway's voting control could make a breakup of the conglomerate likely.

yesterday 5 votes
Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2%

From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14. Since then, our 1Q GDP tracker is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 4Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.2% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 21st] emphasis added From Goldman: [W]e lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate by 0.1pp to +2.1%. We left our Q4 past quarter tracking estimate unchanged at +2.1%. [Feb 19th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow [T]he GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent on February 19, unchanged from February 14 after rounding. [Feb 19th estimate]

yesterday 3 votes
Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth?

Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts

yesterday 3 votes