The global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two decades of hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization anticipate. While everyone focuses on conflicts between nations, few look at the problems shared by nations. Richard Bonugli and I discuss both sets of problems in our latest podcast. The conflict sphere is dominated by the trade wars that are bubbling up here in the first inning of the global rebalancing of national interests and global trade/financial frameworks. Supporting these frameworks benefits participating nations until they don't, at which point they're jettisoned. The conviction that these frameworks, linch-pinned by the U.S. since the end of World War II in 1945, no longer serve America's core national security interests, is reaching a rough consensus, and as a result some describe the U.S. as a "rogue superpower." In other words, now that the U.S. is no longer the dumping ground for global surpluses of production, it's seen as "going rogue." There's a certain naivete in the notion that any nation acts selflessly for the good of all. All nation-states act in their own interests, just as global corporations act to optimize shareholder value and profits while proclaiming the wonderfulness of their products and services. Nations support cooperative arrangements when it benefits them, and exit those arrangements when they morph from benefit to burden. This rebalancing of cooperation and self-interest is taking place in the larger context of non-trade problems shared by all developed nations. Developing nations share many of these same problems as well: soaring debt loads, resource scarcities, corruption, mal-investment, high inflation, stagnating economies, aging populations, shrinking workforces, rising social costs and massive public health issues, many of which have been expanding rapidly behind the focus on trade and conflicting interests. The ubiquity of these issues is striking. In some ways, developed nations share more problems than they seem to realize. Consider the global rise of lifestyle diseases generated by dramatic shifts in diets and fitness. These manifest as metabolic disorders (prediabetes, diabetes) and a broad range of other chronic diseases such as heart disease and cancers. Metabolic disorders generated by changing lifestyles are now weighing heavily on nations around the world, from the U.S. and Mexico to China, India, the Mideast and beyond. The problems generated by aging populations and declining birthrates are also shared by many nations. The same is true of rising debt levels, both public and private, which threaten to destabilize economies via either ruinously high inflation or fiscal frugality, i.e. austerity. Here is total credit in the U.S., a sobering chart that mirrors the debt loads of many other nations--debt that is outstripping GDP and income as interest rates rise in the new era of global inflationary forces. The world's nations have awakened to the risks of becoming dependent on other nations for essential commodities, manufactured goods and markets. Tariffs may well be merely the at-bat players in the first innings. If history is any guide, outright bans on imports from selected nations will eventually be viewed as the only available option to rebalance national security priorities. The degrees of national dependence will become increasingly consequential as mercantilist nations that have relied on exports for growth will find markets for their exports shutting down, crippling domestic growth. Nations that attempt to become self-sufficient will find the demands for capital investment will pressure consumer spending, even as the decline of cheap imports institutionalizes inflation and price increases that outstrip wage increases. Stagflation will hinder both investment and consumer spending. Austerity will crimp fiscal borrowing and spending, and capital sloshing around the world seeking low-risk returns will face unprecedented challenges as capital controls proliferate and nations change the rules overnight. I often focus on scale because this is a limiting factor. While there may well be growth opportunities for investing in developing nations, the scale of capital sloshing around global markets will find the investment pipelines the equivalent of a straw: there is no way to deploy $100 billion in small markets and economies, never mind $1 trillion or $10 trillion. As Immanuel Wallerstein observed, Capitalism may no longer be attractive to capitalists as all these dynamics play out in a vast, inter-connected, unpredictable rebalancing of global interests and increasingly destabilizing attempts to solve complex, intractable problems with cobbled-together expediencies or doing more of what's already failed. There won't be any "saves" in this rebalancing, and so the global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two decades of hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization anticipate. New podcast: The Coming Global Recession will be Longer and Deeper than Most Analysts Anticipate (42 min) My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Larry M. ($70), for your splendidly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.   Thank you, Gordon L. ($70), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Alan D. 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In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New Normal. In the cultural zeitgeist, the term Pod People refers to the novel and film franchise Invasion of the Body Snatchers, in which nomadic aliens reach Earth and spawn emotionless replicas of humans. The Pod People have been viewed as metaphors for Communism (the replacement of individuals with zombie-like Group-Think) and for conformity, i.e. social Group-Think. My meaning is entirely different: POD People refers to the present reality of Precariats in 2025, who live in a world of Precarity, Ordeals and Debasement (POD): precarity--insecure work and income; ordeals--finding affordable housing and healthcare (difficult for low-income wage earners), dealing with institutional bureaucracies, public and private; and debasement, what I call Anti-Progress, the debasement of goods and services across the spectrum of daily life, the incremental decline of quality and value, often in ways that are unseen yet consequential. The ranks of the POD People are swelling, expanding far beyond the working class deep into the middle class and upper middle class as secure employment becomes scarce, housing, healthcare and childcare become increasingly unaffordable, and the asset bubbles that have provided a veneer of financial security to the middle class are wobbling. The debasement of food and the digital world affect everyone. The nutrient content of our food has been declining for years, even as ultra-processed foods replace real foods due to the higher profitability of ultra-processed snacks and products. The debasement of the digital world manifests in many ways, debasing our mental and social health. What once worked is now an ordeal. Under-competence is now the norm, meaning fewer workers know how to fix what's broken. Regulatory thickets make what was once relatively smooth (obtaining a building permit, etc.) into months-long ordeals, and simple tasks now require extraordinary effort to get stuff fixed or restored. Medical appointments are now booked months in advance, replacement parts are no longer available--the list of debasement / Anti-Progress is essentially endless. In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New Normal. New podcast: Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0? (40 min) My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, CBT ($70), for your astoundingly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.   Thank you, SolarGirl ($70), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Doogie ($7/month), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.   Thank you, Earl H. ($70), for your superbly generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.

Denial doesn't end well, and the 'Economy of Denial' is destined to deconstruction. Even the most opinionated become circumspect when the discussion turns to The Addiction Economy, for the term The Addiction Economy calls things by their real name, which disrupts our protective shield of denial. Yes, denial, for ours is an Economy of Denial, where the surface stability of normalcy demands we avoid calling things by their real name at all costs, for that lays bare the core mechanisms of the Economy of Denial: addiction, extortion, deception. This is a jarring, disturbing mirror, for we see our own reflection. We become quiet when The Addiction Economy comes up, for the core concept here is that highly profitable addictions have been normalized to the degree that the majority of the populace is addicted but doesn't identify their addiction as an addiction because the words addiction and extortion have such negative connotations that they threaten both our sense of normalcy (i.e. belonging to the safe, stable, acceptable majority) and our self-pride that we're far above the poor lost souls who succumb to addiction. Addiction calls up images of illicit drugs and lost souls trapped in destructive dependency. Since discipline and will power are the highly valued engines of accomplishment, we view addicts with disdain, for their emotional craving for immediate comfort and solace has overwhelmed their rational will. This is why saying that we're addicted to our phones, social media, snacks, junk food, fast food, novelty, selfies, entertainment, the endless scroll of "news" and all things "money" is so disquieting, as all of these addictions have been normalized. Since "everyone does it," it can't be an addiction, right? The denial isn't just about recognizing behaviors as destructive dependencies; it's also a denial of the core dynamic of our economy, which is weaponizing and normalizing our instincts to overcome our rationality. As Charles Darwin observed, "The very essence of instinct is that it's followed independently of reason." It's natural to seek sources of immediate comfort and solace, and be drawn to sources of novelty, distraction, amusement and belonging that are socially approved. These are our instinctual, hard-wired drives for dopamine hits and endorphin highs. What The Addiction Economy does is exploit these instincts by engineering products and service to be so addictive that dependency is guaranteed. Given an immediate dopamine hit, rationality and will both dissipate into the ether, and the instinct to get another hit of comfort and solace increases. Bet you can't eat just one is the entire goal, and it's easily amplified / weaponized. But just as important as the weaponization is the narrative control of normalizing destructive dependencies: impulsively looking at our phone hundreds of times a day isn't like an addict seeking a hit; it's normal. Turning to snacks for dopamine hits isn't an addiction, it's normalized. Everyone snacks, all day long. This narrative control is so effective that anyone who refuses to get on board the addiction train is considered not just abnormal, but a threat because refusal is a way of saying "all of this is destructively addictive," i.e. calling things by their real name, and this brings us face to face with our own dependencies on these products and services to provide us comfort, amusement and solace. Just as the alcoholic cannot admit to being addicted to alcohol, we can't admit that our dependencies are dependencies. We rationalize it all away, for the rational mind cannot reverse our hard-wired instincts, but it is absolutely masterful at conjuring rationalizations. The same can be said for extortion, an ugly sounding word conjuring up images of sordid gangsters and helpless victims. That this is a core strategy of Corporate America is an ugly truth that we prefer to cloak with denial. I outlined this dynamic in Here Come the Chaos Monkeys: we took away the durability of your appliance, now pay us extra for an extended warranty. Deception is a core dynamic in the Economy of Denial, for to call it deception, i.e. by its real name, is to reveal the destructive nature of the economy. Deception plays out in multiple levels: products are labeled deceptively to con consumers into buying what they seek--a high-status product that enhances their self-worth in a society geared for downward mobility--with an inferior product intentionally packaged to claim something that isn't true. So the package of coffee is labeled "Kona Coffee," but the fine print reveals it is only 10% Kona coffee. The other 90% is cheap filler. The idea is obvious: label cheap coffee as being $50 per pound specialty coffee, and sell it to those who feel better about themselves drinking coffee that's labeled as high-status. The deception is universal: the once prestigious brand is now made cheaply as a commoditized product bound for the landfill, but the brand can still be milked for higher profit margins. Here's another example. I recently accompanied a friend seeking 100% cranberry juice at a Big Box retailer. A dizzying array of juices claimed to be 100% cranberry juice, but this was not the case; a careful reading of the label revealed that they were "100% juice" but not 100% cranberry juice; they were blends of cheaper juices. Only one brand had only cranberry juice in the list of ingredients. The rest were intentionally deceptive. The most important deception is the one protecting us from admitting that our economy doesn't just profit from deception, it's dependent on deception, in effect addicted to addiction, extortion and deception because if these were somehow extinguished, profits would collapse. Denial is the core dynamic of collapse. Refusing to call things by their real name is the core rationalization that enables us to avoid facing our economy's dependence on destructive dependencies. It's cute to call the weaponization of instinct The Attention Economy, but that doesn't change the fact that it's The Addiction Economy. Denial doesn't end well, and the Economy of Denial is destined to deconstruction. Our only option as individuals and households is Going Cold Turkey in our Addiction Economy. New podcast: Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0? (40 min) My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, CBT ($70), for your astoundingly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.   Thank you, SolarGirl ($70), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Doogie ($7/month), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.   Thank you, Earl H. ($70), for your superbly generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.

The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload, we're not even aware of the game until the extortion begins. Chaos Monkeys excel at distraction and extortion. They appear suddenly, leaping about in disorienting mayhem, selecting their targets among those dizzied by sensory overload and confusion. They may appear harmless, until they grab something of ours that is valuable or even essential, and then extort something they value in exchange for what they stole from us. Monkey steals tourist's phone, negotiates for food in exchange Here's how the extortion works in the larger world: you buy an accounting software program, and over the years you dutifully upgrade it from time to time, storing all your financial data in the program. Enter the Chaos Monkeys: you can no longer buy the software, now you must rent it via a monthly subscription. Wait--did you just grab my data, and are extorting me to pay you to get it back? Yes. Chaos Monkeys don't offer you higher quality goods or services; they take something away from you and extort a payment if you want it back.. This is--along with addiction--the business model of this era: take something away from you and then extort a payment to restore it. Distracted and disoriented by the chaos around us, we cave in to the extortion. What's being taken from us comes in many forms. The durability of basic appliances has been taken from us, and the extortion payment is "extended warranties." Wait a minute--didn't this product once have a multi-year warranty? Not any more. Now you have to pay extra for a warranty. The problem with the Chaos Monkeys Business Model is deeper than its crassness. The problem is the Chaos Monkeys Business Model erodes trust in the system, as everything is either designed to addict us or become essential enough that we can be extorted to pay more for what was once standard. The extortion is so blatant that it reveals the true nature of our economy and society. As with purposefully addictive products and services, we're nothing more than profit centers to the addiction dealers and the Chaos Monkey extortionists. One trust is eroded, the system starts collapsing under its immense weight of chaos, addiction and extortion. When everything is a con of one kind or another, then what's left? In terms of a functional social order, nothing. What isn't fake, a fraud, addictive, misrepresented or designed to extort future payments from us? The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload, we're not even aware of the game until the extortion begins: do you want what you once had back? Then pay up. New podcast: Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0? (40 min) My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Bruce ($3/month), for your most generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.   Thank you, Carl ($32.40), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, John H. ($75.61), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.   Thank you, Steven B. ($70), for your superbly generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.