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Calculated Risk
Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate...
3 weeks ago
249

Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest A brief excerpt: When talking about the so-called “neutral” interest rate, many financial commentators, financial analysts, and even monetary policymakers talk about...
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Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.2% YoY as...
3 weeks ago
32

YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.2% YoY as of January 2025, down from 4.4% YoY in December. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
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Commoncog
The Story of Samsung How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s...
4 weeks ago
17

The Story of Samsung

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s economy.
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Mazdak
Microsoft Unveils Majorana 1: A Quantum Leap Towards the Future After 17 years of research and development, Microsoft has unveiled its first quantum...
2 weeks ago
16

Microsoft Unveils Majorana 1: A Quantum Leap Towards the Future

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
After 17 years of research and development, Microsoft has unveiled its first quantum processor—Majorana 1. This breakthrough has the potential to redefine the future of computing, promising industrial-scale problem-solving and scientific discovery at an unprecedented level.
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The Diff
AI Assistants Will Be Great (Especially for the Biggest Companies) Plus! Short Selling; Crypto Treasury Gresham's Law; The Joy of Higher Rates; Labor Substitution;...
4 weeks ago
16

AI Assistants Will Be Great (Especially for the Biggest Companies)

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Plus! Short Selling; Crypto Treasury Gresham's Law; The Joy of Higher Rates; Labor Substitution; Pricing Black Swans
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Moneyness
Ending the penny won't lead to more nickels Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing the penny because it is unprofitable,...
2 weeks ago
16

Ending the penny won't lead to more nickels

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing the penny because it is unprofitable, costing 3.69 cents to produce each one. In response, the lobbyists that earn big profits from the ongoing existence of the penny have come out in full force with dubious arguments for...
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Mazdak
Elon Musk’s $97.4 Billion Bid for OpenAI Elon Musk has once again made headlines with a massive $97.4 billion bid to take control of OpenAI,...
4 weeks ago
15

Elon Musk’s $97.4 Billion Bid for OpenAI

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Elon Musk has once again made headlines with a massive $97.4 billion bid to take control of OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT.
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Musings on Markets
Return on Equity, Earnings Yield and Market Efficiency: Back to Basics! While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by...
2 weeks ago
15

Return on Equity, Earnings Yield and Market Efficiency: Back to Basics!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by two events. The first was the response that I received to my last data update, where I looked at the profitability of businesses, and specifically at how a comparison of accounting...
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Commoncog
Outcome Orientation as a Cure for Information Overload A simple, effective — though not easy! — technique for solving information overload. Written from...
3 weeks ago
15

Outcome Orientation as a Cure for Information Overload

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
A simple, effective — though not easy! — technique for solving information overload. Written from practice.
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Problem With Money Isn't Money The Problem With Money is that it's complicated. To many minds, the solution to our core...
2 weeks ago
14

The Problem With Money Isn't Money

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The Problem With Money is that it's complicated. To many minds, the solution to our core economic problems is to return to sound money via either the gold standard, in which gold backs all currency, or by substituting bitcoin for gold, i.e. bitcoin becomes the coin of the...
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Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.9% Week-over-week, Up 29.2% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.9% week-over-week. Inventory always...
3 weeks ago
14

Housing Feb 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.9% Week-over-week, Up 29.2% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.9% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.2% from the bottom five weeks ago in January. The first graph shows the seasonal...
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Citation Needed
The crypto industry’s debanking smokescreen Cryptocurrency companies have co-opted legitimate concerns about banking discrimination to fight...
3 weeks ago
14

The crypto industry’s debanking smokescreen

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Cryptocurrency companies have co-opted legitimate concerns about banking discrimination to fight regulation — and Congress is buying it
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The Rational Walk
Primary Sources Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible...
3 weeks ago
13

Primary Sources

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible citizens.
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Not-So-Strange Paradox of American Power and Dysfunction Americans seem to have forgotten that we are not slaves to finance-tech profits as the sole divining...
3 weeks ago
13

The Not-So-Strange Paradox of American Power and Dysfunction

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Americans seem to have forgotten that we are not slaves to finance-tech profits as the sole divining rods to what happens next. A recent essay explores the paradox of American power: global reach amidst civic decline: The Strange Triumph of a Broken America: Why Power...
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Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory always...
4 weeks ago
13

Housing Feb 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.8% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. Inventory is now up 1.3% from the bottom four weeks ago. Inventory has been little changed over...
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FIRE v London
Jan ’25: Trump 2.0 begins Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January? We had a remarkable fracas about the...
3 weeks ago
13

Jan ’25: Trump 2.0 begins

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January? We had a remarkable fracas about the so-called “Pakistani grooming gangs” scandal here in the UK, with Elon Musk weighing in. At the time it seemed remarkable but one month later, as I write this, I am pleased to say I can’t...
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Citation Needed
Transcript of leaked call with Meteora’s Ben Chow A transcript of a leaked call between DefiTuna’s Moty Povolotski and Meteora’s Ben Chow
2 weeks ago
13

Transcript of leaked call with Meteora’s Ben Chow

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
A transcript of a leaked call between DefiTuna’s Moty Povolotski and Meteora’s Ben Chow
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The Diff
Uber's AV Bet on a Narrow Range of Competitors' ROI Outcomes Plus! The Grid, and Cross-Subsidies; Pricing AI; Owning the Login; Liquidity Premium; Supply Chains
3 weeks ago
13

Uber's AV Bet on a Narrow Range of Competitors' ROI Outcomes

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! The Grid, and Cross-Subsidies; Pricing AI; Owning the Login; Liquidity Premium; Supply Chains
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The Rational Walk
Staying the Course It is much easier for "know nothing" investors to stick with a dollar cost averaging program in the...
3 weeks ago
13

Staying the Course

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
It is much easier for "know nothing" investors to stick with a dollar cost averaging program in the long run.
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oftwominds-Charles...
Automation Institutionalizes Mediocrity Meanwhile, in the lived-in world, our quality of life is unraveling in myriad ways as...
3 weeks ago
13

Automation Institutionalizes Mediocrity

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Meanwhile, in the lived-in world, our quality of life is unraveling in myriad ways as algorithmically-driven under-competence and mediocrity are now the norm. When deployed by monopolies / cartels, automation institutionalizes mediocrity, and soon everyone forgets...
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Culture in 2050 By mid-century, changes in Berkshire Hathaway's voting control could make a breakup of the...
2 weeks ago
13

Berkshire Hathaway’s Culture in 2050

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
By mid-century, changes in Berkshire Hathaway's voting control could make a breakup of the conglomerate likely.
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FIRE v London
Buy to let: RIP Last year was the end of an era. I sold the Modern Flat, after owning it for over 20 years. A bit of...
2 weeks ago
13

Buy to let: RIP

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Last year was the end of an era. I sold the Modern Flat, after owning it for over 20 years. A bit of history I ended up with my Modern Flat in that common way that many ‘accidental’ landlords have. It was my first rung on the property ownership ladder. Until it was time to…...
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Commoncog
Let’s Talk Corruption How to think about corruption when talking about Asian businesses. Part 4 of the Asian Conglomerate...
2 weeks ago
13

Let’s Talk Corruption

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
How to think about corruption when talking about Asian businesses. Part 4 of the Asian Conglomerate series.
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Bits about Money
Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of...
6 days ago
13

Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of investigative journalism.
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The Diff
Don't Try to Build Another Berkshire Plus! Humans in the Loop; Humans in the Loop, Con't.; The Hardware/Software Burden; Custody;...
2 weeks ago
12

Don't Try to Build Another Berkshire

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Humans in the Loop; Humans in the Loop, Con't.; The Hardware/Software Burden; Custody; Unwinding a Bubble
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Tax Benefits of Self-Employment Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth...
2 weeks ago
12

The Tax Benefits of Self-Employment

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth understanding if you're exploring self-employment. It's tax preparation time, the secular equivalent of crawling around the temple on cobblestones littered with broken glass....
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New...
4 weeks ago
12

Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New Week Mortgage rates have been on a vacation from volatility since January 16th when they fell back toward 7% after hitting the highest levels since May 2024. Top tier 30yr fixed rates...
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Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up...
4 weeks ago
12

Sunday Night Futures

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 18 and DOW futures are up 88 (fair value). WTI futures at $71.00 per barrel and Brent at $74.66 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $83 - so WTI oil prices...
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The Diff
The Annoying Path to Privacy Herd Immunity Plus! Robots; Competition; Model Moderation; Eggs; Sentiment
2 weeks ago
12

The Annoying Path to Privacy Herd Immunity

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Robots; Competition; Model Moderation; Eggs; Sentiment
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Mazdak
Bybit’s $5.5 Billion Bank Run: A Turning Point for Crypto Security? In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, security is paramount.
2 weeks ago
12

Bybit’s $5.5 Billion Bank Run: A Turning Point for Crypto Security?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, security is paramount.
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oftwominds-Charles...
When Markets Misbehave Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the...
2 weeks ago
12

When Markets Misbehave

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the soundness of the hull and the level of self-reinforcing hubris. When Benoit Mandelbrot's book The (Mis)behavior of Markets was published in 2004, it was a revelation for many of...
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The Diff
How Many Layers in the AI Stack? Plus! Scale; Outsourcing Capital; Closed-Loop Generative AI; The Perks of Market Power; Labor...
3 weeks ago
12

How Many Layers in the AI Stack?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! Scale; Outsourcing Capital; Closed-Loop Generative AI; The Perks of Market Power; Labor Markets
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Musings on Markets
Data Update 8 for 2025: Debt, Taxes and Default - An Unholy Trifecta! There is a reason that every religion inveighs against borrowing money, driven by a history of...
2 weeks ago
12

Data Update 8 for 2025: Debt, Taxes and Default - An Unholy Trifecta!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
There is a reason that every religion inveighs against borrowing money, driven by a history of people and businesses, borrowing too much and then paying the price, but a special vitriol is reserved for the lenders, not the borrowers, for encouraging this behavior. At the same...
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Commoncog
Activist Investing in Asian Conglomerates How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators?...
a week ago
11

Activist Investing in Asian Conglomerates

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators? We examine the career of one activist investor, to see what that tells us about the Asian tycoons we’ve been studying.
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The Diff
Globalization, Regulatory Arbitrage, and Reshoring-on-Paper Plus! Antitrust Enforcement; Full-Stack; Decentralizing; Spoiler Bids; Platform Management
3 weeks ago
11

Globalization, Regulatory Arbitrage, and Reshoring-on-Paper

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! Antitrust Enforcement; Full-Stack; Decentralizing; Spoiler Bids; Platform Management
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Mazdak
YouTube’s AI Evolution: What’s Coming in 2025? YouTube is gearing up for a massive AI-driven transformation.
3 weeks ago
11

YouTube’s AI Evolution: What’s Coming in 2025?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
YouTube is gearing up for a massive AI-driven transformation.
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 The key reports this week are January Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, February...
3 weeks ago
11

Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The key reports this week are January Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, February 17th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of Washington's Birthday. ----- Tuesday, February 18th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey...
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The...
3 weeks ago
11

Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of -1.0, up from -12.6. NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 47, unchanged from 47 the previous month. Any number below 50...
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Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
4 weeks ago
11

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-February provides a snapshot of the current housing market. tells the tale! I’m watching...
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Calculated Risk
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress This testimony will be live here at 10:00 AM ET and also on C-SPAN 3. Report here. An excerpt: The...
3 weeks ago
11

Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
This testimony will be live here at 10:00 AM ET and also on C-SPAN 3. Report here. An excerpt: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate...
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Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
3 weeks ago
11

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
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Calculated Risk
CPI Preview The Consumer Price Index for January is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a...
3 weeks ago
11

CPI Preview

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The Consumer Price Index for January is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY. We expect a 0.34% increase in January...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
2 weeks ago
11

Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Housing Starts for January. The consensus is for 1.394 million SAAR, down from 1.499 million SAAR. Architecture Billings Index for January (a leading...
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Mazdak
Apple’s Next Big Bet? The Future of Robotics and the Smart Home For decades, Apple has been known for revolutionizing industries.
3 weeks ago
11

Apple’s Next Big Bet? The Future of Robotics and the Smart Home

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
For decades, Apple has been known for revolutionizing industries.
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Calculated Risk
Housing Starts and Recessions This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading...
2 weeks ago
11

Housing Starts and Recessions

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. Quintanilla quoted BESPOKE: “On a 12-month average basis, .. Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak .. Housing is the basis of one of my...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Education, Auto Theft, Optimizers, AI, Energy, Financial Engineering, Deep Research
3 weeks ago
10

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Education, Auto Theft, Optimizers, AI, Energy, Financial Engineering, Deep Research
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Calculated Risk
The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for...
2 weeks ago
10

The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates A brief excerpt: Housing economist Tom Lawler has written extensively on the neutral rate. He has argued that the neutral rate has increased back to...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: CPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 weeks ago
10

Wednesday: CPI

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up...
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Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
3 weeks ago
10

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release January Existing Home sales on Friday, February 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million in...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The One True Test of AI Intelligence The point of this thought experiment is to reveal the true nature of our relationship with AI: we...
3 weeks ago
10

The One True Test of AI Intelligence

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The point of this thought experiment is to reveal the true nature of our relationship with AI: we only love it as a mindless slave that makes us rich. From the earliest days of artificial intelligence, what test proves AI equivalence with human intelligence has been the...
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.5% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 weeks ago
10

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.5% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to...
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2% From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14....
2 weeks ago
10

Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14. Since then, our 1Q GDP tracker is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 4Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.2% q/q saar...
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Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in January The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
3 weeks ago
10

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.6% (down from 3.7% YoY in December), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (down from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose...
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Calculated Risk
Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by...
3 weeks ago
10

Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low A brief excerpt: The first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and...
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Low 2% Range From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th] emphasis added From...
3 weeks ago
10

Q1 GDP Tracking: Low 2% Range

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th] emphasis added From Goldman: Following this morning’s retail sales and industrial production reports, we lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +2.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1...
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Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Record Inbound Traffic for January This was a new record for imports in January, eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) by 17%! some...
2 weeks ago
10

LA Ports: Record Inbound Traffic for January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
This was a new record for imports in January, eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) by 17%! some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or...
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.5% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 February The U.S. hotel industry reported negative...
3 weeks ago
10

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.5% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 February The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 8 February. ... 2-8 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 55.9%...
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Citation Needed
Issue 77 – Whenever presidents get involved, if they become angry, you don't want to be there A major crypto scandal tarnishes the reputation of Solana bigwigs, crypto influencers, and Argentine...
2 weeks ago
10

Issue 77 – Whenever presidents get involved, if they become angry, you don't want to be there

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
A major crypto scandal tarnishes the reputation of Solana bigwigs, crypto influencers, and Argentine President Javier Milei.
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
2 weeks ago
10

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 14,...
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 The key reports this week are January New Home sales, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income...
2 weeks ago
10

Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The key reports this week are January New Home sales, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for January, and Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, February 24th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index...
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Calculated Risk
Poor Weather Reduced Employment by About 90,000 in January The BLS reported 143 thousand non-farm jobs were added in January.   During the Winter months, I...
3 weeks ago
10

Poor Weather Reduced Employment by About 90,000 in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The BLS reported 143 thousand non-farm jobs were added in January.   During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report. The BLS reported 573 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. ...
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 213,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 weeks ago
10

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 213,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
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Calculated Risk
NY Fed Q4 Report: Household Debt Increased; High auto loan delinquency rates From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates...
3 weeks ago
10

NY Fed Q4 Report: Household Debt Increased; High auto loan delinquency rates

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates Remain Elevated for Auto and Credit Cards The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Retail sales for...
3 weeks ago
10

Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Retail sales for January is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a no change in retail sales. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January. The consensus is for a 0.3%...
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Calculated Risk
February 14th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Moving Sideways Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 weeks ago
10

February 14th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Moving Sideways

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Increased 0.5% in January; Core CPI increased 0.4% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a...
3 weeks ago
10

BLS: CPI Increased 0.5% in January; Core CPI increased 0.4%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, after rising 0.4 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index...
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Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.5% in January From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased...
3 weeks ago
10

Industrial Production Increased 0.5% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased 0.5 percent in January after moving up 1.0 percent in December. In January, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following...
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Musings on Markets
Data Update 7 for 2025: The End Game in Business! I am in the third week of the corporate finance class that I teach at NYU Stern, and my students...
3 weeks ago
10

Data Update 7 for 2025: The End Game in Business!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
I am in the third week of the corporate finance class that I teach at NYU Stern, and my students have been lulled into a false sense of complacency about what's coming, since I have not used a single metric or number in my class yet. In fact, we have spent almost four sessions...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Types, Ellison, AI, YouTube, Private Credit, Globalization, Lending, Huawei
2 weeks ago
10

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Types, Ellison, AI, YouTube, Private Credit, Globalization, Lending, Huawei
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The Diff
When and How Will AI Offer People Search? Plus! Consumption Patterns; Training Data; Grift Confluence; Marketing and Piracy; Convergence
a week ago
10

When and How Will AI Offer People Search?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Consumption Patterns; Training Data; Grift Confluence; Marketing and Piracy; Convergence
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increased in Weekly Survey; Purchase Applications Declined From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 weeks ago
10

MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increased in Weekly Survey; Purchase Applications Declined

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 7,...
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Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Decreased 0.9% in January On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and...
3 weeks ago
10

Retail Sales Decreased 0.9% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.2 percent from January 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
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Calculated Risk
FOMC Minutes: Concern about tariffs, "take time" on any additional Rate Cuts From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28–29, 2025. Excerpt: With...
2 weeks ago
10

FOMC Minutes: Concern about tariffs, "take time" on any additional Rate Cuts

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28–29, 2025. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although progress could remain...
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Calculated Risk
California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in...
2 weeks ago
10

California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: Here a few more local markets prior to the NAR release tomorrow. Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.09 million...
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The Diff
Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth? Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
2 weeks ago
10

Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
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Calculated Risk
February 21st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 weeks ago
10

February 21st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
3 weeks ago
9

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
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Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost Concerns" in February The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42,...
2 weeks ago
9

NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost Concerns" in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42, down from 47 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost...
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Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "Billings remain soft to start the new year" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
2 weeks ago
9

AIA: Architecture Billings "Billings remain soft to start the new year"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI January 2025: Architecture firm billings remain soft to start the new year The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score was 45.6 for the month, slightly above the...
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Moneyness
What do you do with memecoins? Apparently you collect them, says the SEC I have no idea if memecoins like dogecoin and fartcoin should be legally defined as securities, and...
a week ago
9

What do you do with memecoins? Apparently you collect them, says the SEC

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
I have no idea if memecoins like dogecoin and fartcoin should be legally defined as securities, and thus come under the purview of securities regulators like the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). Securities law is confusing. But what I do know is that the SEC's latest notion...
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Mazdak
Claude vs. ChatGPT: A Comprehensive Comparison In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational...
a week ago
9

Claude vs. ChatGPT: A Comprehensive Comparison

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational assistants—Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Although both are built on large language models, they diverge sharply in design philosophy, technical implementation, safety...
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Calculated Risk
By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's...
4 weeks ago
9

By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed...
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Mazdak
TikTok Becomes the First App to Reach $6 Billion in Annual Consumer Spending In 2024, the short-form video platform, along with its Chinese counterpart Douyin, became the first...
2 weeks ago
9

TikTok Becomes the First App to Reach $6 Billion in Annual Consumer Spending

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
In 2024, the short-form video platform, along with its Chinese counterpart Douyin, became the first non-game app to generate $6 billion in annual consumer spending.
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Q4 NY Fed...
3 weeks ago
9

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Part 2:...
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Calculated Risk
President Washington's Farewell Address I usually celebrate President Washington's birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief...
3 weeks ago
9

President Washington's Farewell Address

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
I usually celebrate President Washington's birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief excerpt: To the efficacy and permanency of your Union, a Government for the whole is indispensable. No alliances, however strict, between the parts can be an adequate substitute; they...
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Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
2 weeks ago
9

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,366,000. This is 9.8 percent below the revised December estimate of 1,515,000 and is 0.7 percent below the January 2024 rate of 1,376,000. Single-family housing starts in...
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Annual Report My thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual report and Warren Buffett's letter to shareholders.
a week ago
9

Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Annual Report

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
My thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual report and Warren Buffett's letter to shareholders.
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Moneyness
The end of El Salvador's bitcoin payments experiment Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use...
4 weeks ago
9

The end of El Salvador's bitcoin payments experiment

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use bitcoin for payments. Last month, four years later, it notched another record: it became the first country to rescind bitcoin's status as required tender. This backtracking was the...
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
2 weeks ago
9

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
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Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month...
a week ago
9

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.9% Annual Gain in December 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Corporations as Modern-Day Warlords Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an...
4 weeks ago
9

Corporations as Modern-Day Warlords

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an apology to all those whose blood pressure will skyrocket upon reading this thought experiment. As we all know, science--the real thing, not "science"--advances via informed...
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
2 weeks ago
9

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
3 weeks ago
9

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 224 thousand from 219 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for January from the BLS. The...
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Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage...
2 weeks ago
9

MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.47% of servicers’ portfolio...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
2 weeks ago
9

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 216 thousand from 213 thousand last week. manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a...
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The Diff
Filling Out Forms is Corvée Labor Plus! The Real News Business; Credit, Wealth, and Risk-Adjusted Returns; Less-Than-Truckload; Capex;...
2 weeks ago
9

Filling Out Forms is Corvée Labor

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! The Real News Business; Credit, Wealth, and Risk-Adjusted Returns; Less-Than-Truckload; Capex; Bundling and Scale; Diff Jobs
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
3 weeks ago
8

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: There is much more in the article.
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08...
2 weeks ago
8

Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Sales in January (4.08 million SAAR) were down 4.9% from the previous month and were 2.0% above the January 2024 sales rate. This was the fourth consecutive...
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Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 Housing Starts and Recessions Chicago Fed National...
2 weeks ago
8

Sunday Night Futures

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 Housing Starts and Recessions Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up...
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Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always...
2 weeks ago
8

Housing Feb 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.5% from the bottom six weeks ago in January. The first graph shows the seasonal...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Housing: The Foundations of the Middle Class Are Crumbling Bottom line: with the loss of predictability, we've also lost any sense of future financial...
a week ago
8

Housing: The Foundations of the Middle Class Are Crumbling

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Bottom line: with the loss of predictability, we've also lost any sense of future financial security. Home ownership has been the foundation of middle-class stability and security for so long that it defines middle-class status as much as income. From the end of World War...
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million...
2 weeks ago
8

Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in January were below expectations; however, starts in November and December were revised up. Total starts were down 0.7%...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
2 weeks ago
8

Friday: Existing Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.17 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
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Musings on Markets
Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism! In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world,...
6 days ago
8

Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world, looking at both the magnitude and the form of that return. I start with a framework for thinking about how much cash a business can return to its owners, and then argue that, in the...
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Calculated Risk
ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends;...
2 weeks ago
8

ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends; Wildfire Delinquencies Emerge • Delinquencies fell 24 basis points (bps) to 3.47% in January; that’s 10 bps higher than last year, but 33 bps below pre-pandemic levels Foreclosure...
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth...
2 weeks ago
8

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth Consecutive Month Existing-home sales retreated in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slipped in three major U.S. regions and held steady in the...
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week at 2 Month Lows Mortgage...
2 weeks ago
8

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week at 2 Month Lows Mortgage rates were already in line with the lowest levels since December 18th by last Thursday. They dropped to the best levels since December 12th a day later. end of last week. 30 year...
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Citation Needed
Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory...
a week ago
8

Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory agencies wash their hands of any crypto industry oversight
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Calculated Risk
The Normal Seasonal Change for Median House Prices Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR:...
2 weeks ago
8

The Normal Seasonal Change for Median House Prices

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January, I mentioned that the median price typically bottoms seasonally in January (contracts signed mostly in November and December)...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Three Ways to Restore Housing Affordability The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable...
a week ago
7

Three Ways to Restore Housing Affordability

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable speculative asset in the global financialization casino. It can't be both. We tend to think of housing becoming unaffordable as a matter of land prices, zoning and the cost of...
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Calculated Risk
A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices A few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed...
a week ago
7

A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
A few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
2 weeks ago
7

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage...
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Mazdak
Amazon AWS Enters the Quantum Race with Ocelot Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of...
a week ago
7

Amazon AWS Enters the Quantum Race with Ocelot

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of Ocelot, its first quantum chip, developed in collaboration with Caltech.
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the...
a week ago
7

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,000, an increase of 8,500 from the...
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The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Berkshire’s Valuation Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some...
a week ago
7

Warren Buffett on Berkshire’s Valuation

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some clues that are worth considering.
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oftwominds-Charles...
If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On? Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. ...
a week ago
7

If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On?

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an...
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Calculated Risk
February Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR, Up 1.5% YoY From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay...
2 weeks ago
7

February Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR, Up 1.5% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Sales are recording solid gains, but production slowdowns capping dealer stock in a growth market – a market that ostensibly still is climbing out of the...
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The Diff
Amazon Wants AI Models Commoditized. Can They Make it Happen? Plus! Business and Editorial; The Other AI Growth Story; Getting Ahead of the Shift; Activist Shorts
a week ago
7

Amazon Wants AI Models Commoditized. Can They Make it Happen?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Business and Editorial; The Other AI Growth Story; Getting Ahead of the Shift; Activist Shorts
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report. ----- Monday, March 3rd...
a week ago
6

Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report. ----- Monday, March 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.  Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a week ago
6

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 21,...
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Mazdak
OpenAI Unveils GPT-4.5: Here’s Everything You Need to Know The AI race just got more interesting.
a week ago
6

OpenAI Unveils GPT-4.5: Here’s Everything You Need to Know

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The AI race just got more interesting.
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Calculated Risk
February 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a week ago
6

February 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate...
a week ago
6

Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. The previous three months were...
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The Diff
Running an Oil Major in a Not-Post-Hydrocarbon-Any-Time-Soon World Plus! Corporate VC; Hacking AI Moderation; Product Parity; Crypto Regulation; GPU Demand
a week ago
6

Running an Oil Major in a Not-Post-Hydrocarbon-Any-Time-Soon World

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Corporate VC; Hacking AI Moderation; Product Parity; Crypto Regulation; GPU Demand
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print...
a week ago
6

Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print and a tenth higher than our tracking estimate. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 28th] emphasis added From Goldman:...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Hackers, Safety, EBITDA, More Hackers, Feudalism, Randomness, CEOs
a week ago
6

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Hackers, Safety, EBITDA, More Hackers, Feudalism, Randomness, CEOs
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
a week ago
6

Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing...
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Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Decreased in Q4 2024 The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased...
a week ago
6

FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Decreased in Q4 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased in 2024 Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios Persisted emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. From the FDIC: The...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: New Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a week ago
6

Wednesday: New Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. New Home Sales for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is that new home sales decreased to 678 thousand SAAR, down from 698 thousand in December.
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Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.9% in January; Spending Decreased 0.2% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income...
a week ago
6

Personal Income increased 0.9% in January; Spending Decreased 0.2%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
a week ago
6

Friday: Personal Income & Outlays

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase...
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The Diff
AI's Impact on the Written Word is Vastly Overstated Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk...
a week ago
6

AI's Impact on the Written Word is Vastly Overstated

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk Management; Diff Jobs
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of...
a week ago
6

Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries “The Fed’s balance sheet runoff increases the supply of Treasuries. It’s easier for me to extend duration when I’m not competing with another big seller.” This statement...
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Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.3% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross...
a week ago
6

Q4 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.3% Annual Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released by the U.S....
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Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)...
a week ago
6

New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in January 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S....
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a week ago
5

Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 225 thousand from 219 thousand last week. Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second...
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Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.7% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below...
a week ago
5

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.7% below 2022 peak

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the December Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
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Calculated Risk
Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is...
a week ago
5

Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.  Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending. Light vehicle sales for...
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 4.6% in January to an "All-time low" From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in...
a week ago
5

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 4.6% in January to an "All-time low"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in January according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest, South and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with the most significant drop in the South...
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a week ago
5

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Stoicism of the Caregiver These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of...
6 days ago
5

The Stoicism of the Caregiver

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of caregiving don't get much attention. They're not part of the news flow, and the day-to-day grind of caregiving doesn't lend itself to the self-promotional zeitgeist of social media....
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
a week ago
5

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022...
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 February The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed...
a week ago
5

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.7% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 February The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 February. ... 16-22 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 60.3%...
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The Diff
PE: Cycles and One-Off Events Plus! Streaming and Marketplaces; Automating Applications; Edge AI; Tariff Day; The AI Buildout
a week ago
5

PE: Cycles and One-Off Events

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Streaming and Marketplaces; Automating Applications; Edge AI; Tariff Day; The AI Buildout
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Calculated Risk
Housing March 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.1% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now...
a week ago
5

Housing March 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.1% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 2.4% from the seasonal bottom seven weeks ago in January and should start increasing seasonally in March. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family...
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Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.5% YoY in January Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
a week ago
5

PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.5% YoY in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through January 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.4% year-over-year in January, down from 4.6% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
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Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January; Fannie Mae... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
a week ago
5

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January; Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic)

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in January was 0.61%, up from 0.59% December. Freddie's rate is up...
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Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
a week ago
5

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.41% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
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Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January...
a week ago
4

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
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Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 50.3% in February (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3%...
a week ago
4

ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 50.3% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3% in February, down from 50.9% in January. The employment index was at 47.6%, down from 50.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 48.6%, down from...
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances...
a week ago
4

Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While As the table shows, Federal Reserve net income was substantially negative in 2023 and 2024, with a combined net loss in these two years of almost $200...
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Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Decreased 0.2% in January From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending...
a week ago
4

Construction Spending Decreased 0.2% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure...
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Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.00 million SAAR in February Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability...
a week ago
4

Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.00 million SAAR in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability Headwind, U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Rise 3.4% in February (pay site). Continuing January’s trend, market strength was at the two far ends of the affordability scale, as entry-price cars...
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Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in...
6 days ago
4

ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in February; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief...
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Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly" Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported...
6 days ago
4

Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported no change, four reported modest or moderate growth, and two noted slight contractions. Consumer spending was lower on balance, with reports of solid demand for essential goods mixed...
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Calculated Risk
A Comment on GDPNow On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed...
a week ago
4

A Comment on GDPNow

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed went strongly negative in the most recent reading: "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on...
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Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increased to 53.5% in February (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The...
6 days ago
4

ISM® Services Index Increased to 53.5% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The employment index increased to 53.9%, from 52.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 53.5% February 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
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The Diff
The CoreWeave Triangle Plus! Gimmicks; Correlations; Continuous Search; Re-Emerging Markets; Tax Incidence
5 days ago
4

The CoreWeave Triangle

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Plus! Gimmicks; Correlations; Continuous Search; Re-Emerging Markets; Tax Incidence
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Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
a week ago
4

Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 460 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
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The Diff
Two Kinds of News Business Plus! AI as an Interface; Post-Post; Meta-Moderation; Custom Finance; Voice and Search
4 days ago
4

Two Kinds of News Business

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; Post-Post; Meta-Moderation; Custom Finance; Voice and Search
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Tariffs! From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Over The...
a week ago
4

Tuesday: Tariffs!

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Over The Weekend Mortgage rates faced a very small threat of a very small increase this morning. The underlying bond market was in weaker territory to start the day and that typically means mortgage...
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
5 days ago
4

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
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Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 7% YoY This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The...
a week ago
4

Update: Lumber Prices Up 7% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. ...
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Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a...
6 days ago
4

ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Brief excerpt: Property Insurance Premiums Increased Sharply in 2024 • The average annual property insurance premium among mortgaged single-family homes rose by a...
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Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
5 days ago
4

Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December, revised. ...
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Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in...
5 days ago
4

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
6 days ago
3

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 20.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 28,...
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Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: Home Prices Increased 3.3% Year-over-year in January Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The recent Case-Shiller index...
6 days ago
3

CoreLogic: Home Prices Increased 3.3% Year-over-year in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for December. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Largely Flat in January U.S. home price...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Beige Book Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
6 days ago
3

Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Beige Book

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 140,000 payroll jobs added in February,...
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Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in February; Up 0.1% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale...
4 days ago
3

Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in February; Up 0.1% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in February compared to January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) decreased to 204.1, which...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. ICE...
3 days ago
3

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January 1st Look at Local Housing...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
5 days ago
3

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 234 initial claims down from 242 thousand last week. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for January...
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Calculated Risk
Comments on February Employment Report The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and...
4 days ago
3

Comments on February Employment Report

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade,...
3 days ago
3

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade, Karp
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
4 days ago
3

Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for February.   The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At The...
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Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty" From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy...
4 days ago
3

Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to be in a good place. The labor market is solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal. At the Federal Reserve, we are intently focused on the...
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Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
4 days ago
3

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.4% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index now sits at 6.9...
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Calculated Risk
March 7th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 days ago
3

March 7th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-High 1% Range Special Note: There was a surge in gold imports in January. There is a time lag for when the...
4 days ago
3

Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-High 1% Range

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
Special Note: There was a surge in gold imports in January. There is a time lag for when the imported gold will show up in inventories. GDPNow will correct for this once the gold is included as an increase in inventories, but currently GDPNow just included the import side. ...
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases...
3 days ago
3

Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, March 11th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February. 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the...
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Calculated Risk
Poor Weather Reduced Employment Slightly in February The BLS reported 151 thousand non-farm jobs were added in February.   During the Winter months, I...
2 days ago
3

Poor Weather Reduced Employment Slightly in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
The BLS reported 151 thousand non-farm jobs were added in February.   During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report. The BLS reported 404 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. ...
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Calculated Risk
February Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus is...
5 days ago
2

February Employment Preview

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 170k in February, slightly above consensus of +160k but below...
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Calculated Risk
February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February,...
4 days ago
2

February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, financial activities,...
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Mazdak
Manus: The AI Agent That Could Change Everything On March 6, the global AI landscape shifted.
2 days ago
2

Manus: The AI Agent That Could Change Everything

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
On March 6, the global AI landscape shifted.
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Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down...
2 days ago
2

Sunday Night Futures

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 48 and DOW futures are down 294 (fair value). WTI futures at $67.04 per barrel and Brent at $70.36 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $79, and Brent was at $84 - so WTI oil prices...
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Mazdak
How Public Company Executives Borrow Against Their Shares to Defer Taxes For ultra-wealthy individuals and executives of public companies, borrowing against their shares is...
2 days ago
2

How Public Company Executives Borrow Against Their Shares to Defer Taxes

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
For ultra-wealthy individuals and executives of public companies, borrowing against their shares is a powerful financial strategy.
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Calculated Risk
Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
yesterday
2

Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

yesterday
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 2.9% from the seasonal bottom eight weeks ago in January and should start increasing significantly in the Spring. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
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Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
23 hours ago
2

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

23 hours ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market. tells the tale. Currently I’m watching...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Going Cold Turkey in our Addiction Economy We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We...
20 hours ago
2

Going Cold Turkey in our Addiction Economy

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

20 hours ago
We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We inhabit an Addiction Economy. We all know the cure for addiction is to go Cold Turkey: drop the denial and delusion of control, and excise the source of the addiction from one's...
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The Diff
Text and Telos Plus! Diff Jobs; Scaling; Retail Investors; Comparative Advantage; Transaction Costs and Corporate...
23 hours ago
1

Text and Telos

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

23 hours ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Scaling; Retail Investors; Comparative Advantage; Transaction Costs and Corporate Structure; DeepSeek Governance
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Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in February, Intermodal Up From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts...
19 hours ago
1

AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in February, Intermodal Up

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

19 hours ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Uncertainty shapes economic cycles — fueling booms, triggering busts, and driving debates about what comes next. Uncertainty abounds in the railroad industry...
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses Bonds...
13 hours ago
1

Tuesday: Job Openings

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

13 hours ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses Bonds are once again paying attention to weakness in stocks--it just happened to take a bigger drop in stocks that we saw last week. Despite the improvement in rates, we would still...
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Mazdak
How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their...
a year ago
430

How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their tax liabilities. One such method, known as transfer pricing, has become increasingly prevalent in recent years, raising concerns about fairness and equity in the global tax...
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Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
194

January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
a month ago
162

Friday: Existing Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
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Commoncog
When Action Beats Prediction One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ......
a year ago
143

When Action Beats Prediction

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ... isn't. What a theory of expertise in entrepreneurship tells us about creating new things in business.
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Citation Needed
Issue 58 – Threats to the stability and integrity of Ethereum The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's...
9 months ago
141

Issue 58 – Threats to the stability and integrity of Ethereum

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's creditors, and Biden threatens a crypto veto.
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FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
10 months ago
138

April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
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Seeking Wisdom
A great investor is a great rejector I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for...
10 months ago
137

A great investor is a great rejector

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for example — I developed a stronger understanding and appreciation for it after reading the book Modeling Life. Similarly, the investing book What I Learned About Investing from Darwin...
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Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1 This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
a year ago
136

Attention is all you need – Part 1

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
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Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024 A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
9 months ago
135

Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
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Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
a year ago
134

Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
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Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
a year ago
133

The Winner’s Edge

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
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Citation Needed
We need to talk about digital ownership "Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually...
a year ago
130

We need to talk about digital ownership

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually want.
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Commoncog
The Limits of Operational Excellence An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven,...
10 months ago
128

The Limits of Operational Excellence

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven, achieve operational excellence, and die, and others acquire Process Power and win?
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Commoncog
The Skill of Capital What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk...
a year ago
127

The Skill of Capital

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk through three stories, and then talk about the shape of the skill in practice.
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Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
10 months ago
126

Modeling Life: Oscillation

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
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Citation Needed
Become a Wikipedian in 30 minutes What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be...
a year ago
126

Become a Wikipedian in 30 minutes

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be proliferating on the web? The number one thing you can do is learn to edit, and I will walk you through how to get started in only 30 minutes.
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The Rational Walk
Apple’s Dystopian iPad Video When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision...
10 months ago
125

Apple’s Dystopian iPad Video

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision crushing symbols of art and culture.
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Commoncog
Process Behaviour Charts: More Than You Need To Know The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional...
a year ago
124

Process Behaviour Charts: More Than You Need To Know

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional variation. This is everything you need to know to use it well.
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Citation Needed
Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me? The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto...
10 months ago
124

Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me?

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto criminals. Also, lawmakers take another stab at stablecoin regulation.
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The Rational Walk
Free Articles! A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
10 months ago
123

Free Articles!

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
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Commoncog
Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do...
a year ago
122

Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do it. This is everything you need to know to actually become data driven, from scratch, using the same first principles that Amazon, Koch, and Toyota used back in their day.
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Seeking Wisdom
Ruturaj Gaikwad, P-value, and Bayes’ Theorem IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is...
9 months ago
122

Ruturaj Gaikwad, P-value, and Bayes’ Theorem

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is my favorite team. Ruturaj Gaikwad, the new CSK captain for the IPL 2024 season, lost 10 out of 13 tosses: LLLLWLLLLLLWL. The probability of seeing the sequence LLLLWLLLLLLWL is...
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Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Equilibrium This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
11 months ago
121

Modeling Life: Equilibrium

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier post first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium, oscillation,...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #197 Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
11 months ago
121

The Digest #197

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
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The Rational Walk
The Odyssey Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
10 months ago
121

The Odyssey

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
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Seeking Wisdom
What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a...
9 months ago
119

What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a plate full of french fries. It takes an enormous amount of energy to break bad habits. I’ve broken bad habits under two conditions: (a) it’s a do-or-die situation, or (b) you have a...
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Seeking Wisdom
Make Every Day Count It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big...
a year ago
115

Make Every Day Count

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big project at work on time. I’d made the journey from the office to my home so many times, my car almost seemed to know the way by itself. My hands were on the wheel, but…
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Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
9 months ago
114

Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
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FIRE v London
The richest person you know What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are...
a year ago
113

The richest person you know

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are among the highest earning and/or richest people in the UK. I bet however that not many of you feel that way. Let’s start with income To be in the top 1% of earnings in… Continue...
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balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
10 months ago
113

Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
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Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
a year ago
112

Stay the course

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
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Mazdak
Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market? In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more...
10 months ago
112

Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more pressing than ever. Soaring property values and rising interest rates have created a complex landscape, leaving many wondering: is homeownership still the golden ticket to building...
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The Rational Walk
The Dividend Signal Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or...
10 months ago
112

The Dividend Signal

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or negative development for shareholders?
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FIRE v London
Feeling broke My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is...
a year ago
112

Feeling broke

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is captured in my monthly portfolio updates, I thought it was worth recording some of my emotions while they are still fresh. Two years ago Turning the clock back, my financial...
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Citation Needed
Issue 60 – Raging in favor of the machine The crypto industry jumps on the Trump train.
8 months ago
110

Issue 60 – Raging in favor of the machine

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
The crypto industry jumps on the Trump train.
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Commoncog
Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
12 months ago
110

Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

12 months ago
Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
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The Rational Walk
Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on...
9 months ago
110

Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on education, ethics, religion, and many other subjects.
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Citation Needed
Cryptocurrency companies have raised over $115 million to influence US elections this cycle, and... As election season kicks into high gear, we need to watch how cryptocurrency companies are...
9 months ago
109

Cryptocurrency companies have raised over $115 million to influence US elections this cycle, and they’re just getting started

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
As election season kicks into high gear, we need to watch how cryptocurrency companies are influencing US politics.
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Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
8 months ago
109

The Amazon Weekly Business Review

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
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balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got Your assets are the government's collateral.
11 months ago
109

All It Takes Is All You Got

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Your assets are the government's collateral.
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balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
9 months ago
109

California Is Not A Democracy

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
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Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
a year ago
109

Financial systems take a holiday

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
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Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
9 months ago
109

Understanding the Stock Market Cycle

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
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Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.7% Week-over-week, Up 26.5% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always...
a month ago
108

Housing Jan 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.7% Week-over-week, Up 26.5% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If two weeks ago was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has...
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Bits about Money
The business of check cashing Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
a year ago
108

The business of check cashing

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
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Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
11 months ago
107

Issue 54 – Cases continue

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
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Bits about Money
Working title (insurance) Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
8 months ago
107

Working title (insurance)

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #206 The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of...
8 months ago
107

The Digest #206

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of Silicon Valley, Self-esteem and outer scorecards, MMT's founder is worried about deficits
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Citation Needed
Privacy, human rights, and Tornado Cash I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
9 months ago
106

Privacy, human rights, and Tornado Cash

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
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The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked...
a year ago
106

The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked spectacularly well. Will Berkshire's playbook continue to perform well in the future?
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Citation Needed
Issue 57 - I take deep breath and I get real high Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC...
10 months ago
106

Issue 57 - I take deep breath and I get real high

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC is on a Wells notice bender.
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Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
9 months ago
106

Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
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FIRE v London
Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an...
a year ago
105

Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an impulse while travelling back from the Coastal Folly. My main frame of reference to the cathedral being those notorious Russian nerve agent assassins citing it as their reason for...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #198 Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How...
10 months ago
105

The Digest #198

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How to spend your days, AI and productivity
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FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
11 months ago
105

Mar ’24: A towering influence

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #193 Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect...
12 months ago
104

The Digest #193

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

12 months ago
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect on the brain, Race and cardiovascular disease, Inflation's effect on insurance pricing
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The Rational Walk
Dollar General: Value or Value Trap? I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some...
a year ago
104

Dollar General: Value or Value Trap?

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some initial thoughts about the company as well as the overall retail landscape.
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FIRE v London
In praise of Berkshire Hathaway I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the...
a year ago
104

In praise of Berkshire Hathaway

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the year 2000. I loved the story. Starting from, as the story was told back then, humble beginnings and a paper round, Warren Buffett (and Charlie – who I will stop mentioning but...
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FIRE v London
June ’24: Election fever June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west...
8 months ago
104

June ’24: Election fever

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west country, the south coast and the Isle of Wight; partly overseas – I visited Ibiza for a few days of R&R. Meanwhile, the election campaigns were in full swing. Nigel Farage did his...
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The Rational Walk
Daily Journal: The Canary in the Coal Mine? Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence....
9 months ago
104

Daily Journal: The Canary in the Coal Mine?

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence. Recent development at Daily Journal raise concerns.
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The Rational Walk
Will Berkshire Hathaway Pay a Dividend? Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well...
a year ago
104

Will Berkshire Hathaway Pay a Dividend?

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well served by Warren Buffett's reluctance to send out dividend checks.
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Citation Needed
Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through...
9 months ago
104

Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through the House.
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The Rational Walk
Daily Journal Annual Meeting Notes A reader has generously shared his notes from the Daily Journal annual meeting which took place in...
8 months ago
103

Daily Journal Annual Meeting Notes

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
A reader has generously shared his notes from the Daily Journal annual meeting which took place in Los Angeles on February 15, 2024.
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Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI) Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
a year ago
103

Understanding Employment Insurance (EI)

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
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The Rational Walk
Poor Charlie’s Almanack My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five...
11 months ago
103

Poor Charlie’s Almanack

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five psychological tendencies that can cause human misjudgment.
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Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’ It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
a year ago
103

Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
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Citation Needed
We can have a different web Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
10 months ago
103

We can have a different web

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
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FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
a year ago
103

Feb ’24: Envyidia

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
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Mazdak
Choosing the Optimal Legal Structure for Your Small Business 🇨🇦 Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate...
a year ago
103

Choosing the Optimal Legal Structure for Your Small Business 🇨🇦

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate legal framework can feel like traversing a complex maze. This guide sheds light on the merits and drawbacks of the three primary options: sole proprietorship, partnership, and...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #192 Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS,...
a year ago
103

The Digest #192

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS, The bear case for China, Chris Davis, Michael Mauboussin
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FIRE v London
May ’24: UK election called The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
8 months ago
102

May ’24: UK election called

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...
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Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Linear Algebra This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life....
10 months ago
102

Modeling Life: Linear Algebra

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my previous posts first to gain a solid understanding on how to model dynamic systems. This post focuses on how linear algebra is employed in modeling dynamic...
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Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
11 months ago
102

Introducing Xmrit

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
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Commoncog
The Secret at the Heart of Continuous Improvement Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart...
10 months ago
102

The Secret at the Heart of Continuous Improvement

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart that doesn't seem to get talked about.
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The Rational Walk
Paid Subscriptions The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
10 months ago
102

Paid Subscriptions

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
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Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US) Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
a year ago
102

A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US)

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
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Bits about Money
The Bond villain compliance strategy Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out...
a year ago
101

The Bond villain compliance strategy

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out for Binance and its CEO. Spoiler: poorly.
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Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 1 This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
101

Embeddings – Part 1

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. I love playing and watching cricket. The dominance India showed in the recently concluded World Cup is astounding. I have never seen anything like it in...
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FIRE v London
I’m 28, and can’t figure out how to start on FatFIRE – what would you do in my shoes? From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from...
8 months ago
101

I’m 28, and can’t figure out how to start on FatFIRE – what would you do in my shoes?

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from the London School of Economics in 2017 after which I went through the hardest few years of my life mentally and ended up unemployed or in dead-end low paid jobs. I currently work...
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The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of...
11 months ago
101

What I’ve Been Reading

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of Anne Frank, Endurance, Crime and Punishment, and the Iliad.
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Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and...
11 months ago
101

Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and therefore warrant only six years of imprisonment. Prosecutors argue that 40–50 years are justified.
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Commoncog
Learning About Moats the Hard Way How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end...
9 months ago
100

Learning About Moats the Hard Way

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end of his career.
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The Rational Walk
The Magic of Compounding The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my...
8 months ago
100

The Magic of Compounding

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my current net worth.
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Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
9 months ago
100

Guys what is wrong with ACATS

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
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Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
12 months ago
99

Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

12 months ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
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Mazdak
Salary vs. Dividends: Picking the Right Paycheck as a Business Owner Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner...
a year ago
99

Salary vs. Dividends: Picking the Right Paycheck as a Business Owner

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner faces unique financial considerations. One critical choice arises early on: to pay yourself a salary or take dividends? Understanding the pros and cons of each path empowers you to...
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Commoncog
A Big Part of Being Data Driven is Will Not Skill What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming...
8 months ago
99

A Big Part of Being Data Driven is Will Not Skill

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming data driven in business more broadly.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #201 Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
9 months ago
99

The Digest #201

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
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Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
a year ago
99

Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
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Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
11 months ago
99

Modeling Life: Foundations

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
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Commoncog
Making Sense of Deming A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of...
11 months ago
99

Making Sense of Deming

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of the most powerful things you'll find on the Operations side of the business expertise triad. Read this, so you don't have to read multiple books to apply his ideas.
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balajis.com
The Network School We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
6 months ago
99

The Network School

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
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Citation Needed
Follow the Crypto FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024...
8 months ago
99

Follow the Crypto

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024 elections in the United States.
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Seeking Wisdom
Focus on the process, not the outcome Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket...
7 months ago
99

Focus on the process, not the outcome

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket team, has two non-negotiables. As an offspinner, you must never get cut, and you must never get driven through the covers. Even when Ravichandran Ashwin takes five wickets, Raman will...
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Citation Needed
Issue 61 – Soft war by the enemy How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the...
8 months ago
98

Issue 61 – Soft war by the enemy

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the crypto lobby, and some new regulatory actions.
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Mazdak
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds : The Great Investment Debate For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual...
10 months ago
98

ETFs vs. Mutual Funds : The Great Investment Debate

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds can be a head-scratcher. Both offer diversification, professional management options, and access to a variety of asset classes. However, they differ significantly in how they...
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The Rational Walk
Hesiod’s Works and Days One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it...
10 months ago
98

Hesiod’s Works and Days

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it was 2,700 years ago.
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Commoncog
Lesley Sim on Skill Acceleration in Ultimate Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World...
a year ago
97

Lesley Sim on Skill Acceleration in Ultimate

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World Championship Team in 2020, her approach to skill acceleration, and why a teaching technique designed for dogs and dolphins works just as well on humans!
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Commoncog
Dell's Capital Expertise We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at...
a year ago
97

Dell's Capital Expertise

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at capital allows you to make moves that aren't available to a novice business operator.
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Citation Needed
Issue 55 – Halving a bad time The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed...
11 months ago
97

Issue 55 – Halving a bad time

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed fraud and Uniswap got a Wells notice.
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The Rational Walk
Burlington Northern Santa Fe — 2023 Results Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
a year ago
96

Burlington Northern Santa Fe — 2023 Results

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
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balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
7 months ago
96

America's $175 Trillion Problem

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
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balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102 Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
a year ago
96

The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
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Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
a year ago
96

The 2023 Commoncog Recap

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
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The Rational Walk
Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023) A life well lived
a year ago
96

Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023)

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
A life well lived
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Commoncog
The Idea Maze is a Useless Idea Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business...
6 months ago
96

The Idea Maze is a Useless Idea

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business idea.
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Mazdak
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
a year ago
96

2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #180 Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting,...
a year ago
95

The Digest #180

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting, Damodaran on key person risk, Microsoft's IPO, Howard Marks and Annie Duke on risk
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balajis.com
Prompts are Tiny Programs And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
a year ago
95

Prompts are Tiny Programs

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
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Citation Needed
AI isn't useless. But is it worth it? AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
10 months ago
94

AI isn't useless. But is it worth it?

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
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The Rational Walk
Prometheus Bound This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus...
9 months ago
94

Prometheus Bound

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus dating back to the fifth century BC.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #208 Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs...
7 months ago
93

The Digest #208

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs in 1983, Microsoft deep dive, Marks on risk, Luca Delanna on ergodicity, Guadalcanal
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FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
a year ago
93

Dec ’23 – 2023 in review

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
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The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
93

Finding Your Life’s Work

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #177 Remembering Charlie Munger
a year ago
93

The Digest #177

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Remembering Charlie Munger
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Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out? Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
11 months ago
93

Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
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Mazdak
The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large....
11 months ago
93

The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large. Enter the 4% rule, a popular guideline that suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and adjust for inflation thereafter. But is it a guaranteed...
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Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2 This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
93

Embeddings – Part 2

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #200 Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks,...
9 months ago
92

The Digest #200

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks, Appnesia, Stress and heart disease, Steve Jobs, Flying Cars, Dunkirk, Napoleon
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Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
a year ago
92

Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
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Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
7 months ago
92

Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
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Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
a year ago
92

The Long Shadow of Checks

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
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Bits about Money
The business of wallets How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
10 months ago
92

The business of wallets

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
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Citation Needed
Issue 62 – Grassroots Coinbase’s Stand With Crypto Alliance fudges the numbers, a (former) crypto industry CEO has a...
7 months ago
92

Issue 62 – Grassroots

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Coinbase’s Stand With Crypto Alliance fudges the numbers, a (former) crypto industry CEO has a meltdown, and another exchange suffers a nine-figure hack.
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Citation Needed
Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely...
7 months ago
91

Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely prohibited from making its $25 million contribution to the Fairshake crypto super PAC in May 2024.
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Commoncog
Colin Bryar on the practice of Amazon's Weekly Business Review Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of...
a year ago
91

Colin Bryar on the practice of Amazon's Weekly Business Review

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of Amazon's secret operational weapons: the Weekly Business Review.
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Citation Needed
25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried "The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious...
11 months ago
91

25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious crime."
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Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income? Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
a year ago
91

What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
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The Rational Walk
The Trust Deficit My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the...
8 months ago
90

The Trust Deficit

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the urgent need to correct course.
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The Rational Walk
The Other Side of the Trade Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other...
9 months ago
90

The Other Side of the Trade

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other stocks to temporarily crash on June 3, 2024.
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Citation Needed
"The Monkey Fraud": An interview with Ryder Ripps An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club...
11 months ago
89

"The Monkey Fraud": An interview with Ryder Ripps

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club trademark infringement and racism.
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Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 3 This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
89

Neural Networks – Part 3

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. The MNIST dataset is the “hello world” of machine learning, containing images of handwritten digits that are used to train machine learning models. It...
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Citation Needed
Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried...
a year ago
89

Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried doesn't want to go to jail for 100 years.
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Commoncog
Tacit Expertise Extraction, Software Engineering Edition One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior...
a year ago
89

Tacit Expertise Extraction, Software Engineering Edition

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior software engineers'. Useful to anyone who might want to accelerate their own skills.
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FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
a year ago
88

Nov ’23 revalues the future

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
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Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
a year ago
88

Seeing like a Bank

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
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Commoncog
Data is an Added Sense A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in...
7 months ago
88

Data is an Added Sense

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in business.
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Mazdak
Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its...
a year ago
87

Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its acquisition of smart TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion. This deal is far more than just about TVs; it's a strategic play by Walmart to become a major force in the booming
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Commoncog
Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a...
a year ago
87

Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a deliberate practice training program isn't as difficult as you might think.
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Citation Needed
Video: The charges against Binance In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant...
a year ago
87

Video: The charges against Binance

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant Binance and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, I started writing up an overview of everything that had happened to the company over the past few years. I'd written separately about a...
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FIRE v London
July ’24: New UK government July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
7 months ago
87

July ’24: New UK government

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Questions Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five...
11 months ago
87

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Questions

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five potential questions for the Q&A session.
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Commoncog
One Definition of Wisdom Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
a year ago
87

One Definition of Wisdom

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
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The Rational Walk
By diverse means we arrive at the same end Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
a year ago
87

By diverse means we arrive at the same end

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #187 Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the...
a year ago
87

The Digest #187

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the market, Damodaran data updates, Apple packaging, Samsung, Big Pharma
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #191 The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel...
a year ago
87

The Digest #191

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel shareholders, Investing lessons from Earnest Shackleton, Google's Gemini AI goes off the rails
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Commoncog
Commoncog's Next Phase Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains...
a year ago
87

Commoncog's Next Phase

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains series free, and one more thing.
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The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
a year ago
86

What I’ve Been Reading

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #195 BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
11 months ago
86

The Digest #195

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #204 Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing...
8 months ago
86

The Digest #204

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing down time, Return of meme stocks, The U.S. Constitution, Gouverneur Morris, Cleopatra
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Commoncog
Businesses as Ecosystem Organisms What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd...
5 months ago
86

Businesses as Ecosystem Organisms

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd example of HEICO being the barnacle to TransDigm’s whale.
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in...
11 months ago
86

Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in the game, repurchase activity, and stock based compensation.
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
a month ago
86

Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing...
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Commoncog
The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same...
a year ago
86

The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same time? Deming — who came up with these data techniques — believe that it is possible. I'm not so sure.
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The Rational Walk
Biden’s Withdrawal and the Limits of Gaslighting President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the...
7 months ago
85

Biden’s Withdrawal and the Limits of Gaslighting

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the Democratic Party and allies in the mainstream media.
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Mazdak
2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step 2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to...
a year ago
85

2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to generate human-quality text, while chipmaker Nvidia pushed the boundaries of what's possible with graphics processing units (GPUs). But amidst the hype, there were also concerns about...
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Citation Needed
Issue 53 – Choose rich Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
12 months ago
85

Issue 53 – Choose rich

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

12 months ago
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
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Mazdak
The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured...
a year ago
85

The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured the attention of the world. ChatGPT's ability to generate human-quality text, translate languages, write different kinds of creative content, and answer questions in an informative...
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Mazdak
Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful...
a year ago
84

Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful player in the industry. This deal puts an end to a years-long investigation into Binance. The deal: CZ agreed to pay $50 million in fines and is prohibited from operating or managing...
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Mazdak
How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie: A Summary and Key Takeaways Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential...
a year ago
84

How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie: A Summary and Key Takeaways

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential self-help books ever written. First published in 1936, it has sold over 50 million copies and been translated into over 30 languages. The book is a practical guide to improving...
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Citation Needed
Issue 63 – RobConf 2024 Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat...
7 months ago
84

Issue 63 – RobConf 2024

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat with Lyn Alden about sexism in bitcoin.
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Citation Needed
Issue 64 – Pointing its arsenal at our friends As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like...
6 months ago
84

Issue 64 – Pointing its arsenal at our friends

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like “Crypto4Harris”, others insist it is Harris who must “bend the knee”.
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Citation Needed
Review: Chris Dixon's Read Write Own Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain...
a year ago
84

Review: Chris Dixon's Read Write Own

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain solutionists.
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Mazdak
The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real...
a year ago
84

The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real estate in Canada. It's important to note that this strategy is generally more complex and may not be suitable for everyone. When Owning Real Estate Personally Might Be Better
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Commoncog
The Hospitality Solution in Your Business A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve...
6 months ago
84

The Hospitality Solution in Your Business

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve (certain) business problems with hospitality, and that it only takes a little thoughtfulness to do so.
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Mazdak
A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the...
a year ago
84

A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the economy that remains ill: the office sector of the U.S. commercial real-estate market. ** What's the Problem?** Hybrid/remote work: What began as a two-week work-from-home...
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Commoncog
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
7 months ago
84

Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
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Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
11 months ago
83

Anatomy of a credit card rewards program

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
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Commoncog
Focus Doesn't Mean Doing One Thing at a Time Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time....
over a year ago
83

Focus Doesn't Mean Doing One Thing at a Time

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time. This is what focus looks like at an organisational level, told through the story of a business turnaround and the Marine Corps approach to war.
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Farnam Street
Why Write Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
over a year ago
83

Why Write

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #176 Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land,...
a year ago
83

The Digest #176

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land, John Oliver skewers dollar stores, Apple regrets, The Great Books Journal
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FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
a year ago
83

Sep 23: Antisocial markets

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
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The Rational Walk
A Seamless Web of Deserved Trust Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
a year ago
83

A Seamless Web of Deserved Trust

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #190 Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben...
a year ago
82

The Digest #190

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben Graham's summer on a farm, Income taxes, Interviews of Bruce Berkowitz and Howard Marks, and more...
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Commoncog
The Capital Cycle What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
a year ago
82

The Capital Cycle

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #186 Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment...
a year ago
82

The Digest #186

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment checklists, Shane Parrish interviews Tom Gayner, Novo Nordisk, Howard Marks on interest rates
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The Rational Walk
Two Sides of the Same Coin Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the...
a year ago
81

Two Sides of the Same Coin

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the longer it will take to achieve financial independence.
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Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 2 This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for...
a year ago
81

Attention is all you need – Part 2

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I concluded the previous post by explaining how Attention works. You can download the Excel sheet and Python code that explains how Attention from here and...
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Commoncog
What To Think When Looking at a Chart In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb...
a year ago
81

What To Think When Looking at a Chart

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb question that nobody seems to talk about.
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The Rational Walk
Endurance The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived...
a year ago
81

Endurance

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived shipwreck, ice floes, and constant danger.
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The Rational Walk
The Oresteia The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery,...
9 months ago
81

The Oresteia

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery, mankind finds its way toward due process and justice.
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Mazdak
A Review and Analysis of "The Laws of Human Nature" by Robert Greene Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different...
a year ago
81

A Review and Analysis of "The Laws of Human Nature" by Robert Greene

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different approach in his 2018 book, "The Laws of Human Nature." Instead of focusing on acquiring power over others, he dives deep into the intricate workings of human psychology, unveiling...
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Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
a year ago
81

The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
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Mazdak
The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024 The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
a year ago
80

The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
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The Rational Walk
The Iliad Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
11 months ago
80

The Iliad

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
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Citation Needed
Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x" Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
a year ago
80

Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x"

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
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Citation Needed
Issue 66 – Pretensions to relevance FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky...
5 months ago
80

Issue 66 – Pretensions to relevance

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky goes to trial, and some more ill-received blockchain games suggest “GameFi” has an uncertain future.
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The Rational Walk
Improving Disclosure for Public Companies The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing...
11 months ago
80

Improving Disclosure for Public Companies

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing three simple proposals.
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Commoncog
What Rigorous Process Improvement in Education Looks Like What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
5 months ago
80

What Rigorous Process Improvement in Education Looks Like

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should do this in your own organisational contexts.
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Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
over a year ago
79

Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
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Commoncog
The Shape of a Technological Window Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how...
over a year ago
79

The Shape of a Technological Window

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how he used it over the course of his career. Note: this is a follow-up to and an update for the Commoncog Case Library Beta.
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The Rational Walk
Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of...
a year ago
79

Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of the annual commitments pledged in 2006.
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FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
6 months ago
79

August ’24: From triumph to tragedy

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #209 Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
7 months ago
79

The Digest #209

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
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Mazdak
Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and...
a year ago
79

Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and battling for the last box of Oreos. The retail giant is about to revolutionize your shopping experience with a generative AI makeover. Imagine this: You're planning a Super Bowl bash,...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #188 Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
a year ago
78

The Digest #188

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Q&A Session Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual...
10 months ago
78

Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Q&A Session

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual meeting after Charlie Munger's death.
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The Rational Walk
The Limits of the 25th Amendment The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe...
8 months ago
78

The Limits of the 25th Amendment

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe limits that should be acknowledged.
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Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
a year ago
78

The Elon Musk Empire

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
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Mazdak
A Brighter Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024? The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples...
a year ago
78

A Brighter Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples through the housing market, sparking both excitement and cautious optimism among prospective buyers and existing homeowners alike. While the prospect of lower mortgage rates is...
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The Rational Walk
Thucydides Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between...
6 months ago
78

Thucydides

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between 431 - 404 BC.
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Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
a year ago
78

Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
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Commoncog
Setting the Business Expertise Series Free Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her...
a year ago
78

Setting the Business Expertise Series Free

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her collaborators.
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Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
a year ago
78

The Two Types of Data Analysis

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
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FIRE v London
Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to...
a year ago
78

Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to check out Dorset’s Chesil beach. We struck lucky with the weather and had a fine, distinctly non-London, time, over a very blustery Easter weekend. My walking shoes seem to have...
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Mazdak
Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket? The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the...
a year ago
77

Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the dream of homeownership into a distant mirage for many Canadians. But before you resign yourself to renting forever, consider this: owning a home may not be the guaranteed...
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Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
5 months ago
77

Fiction and Finance

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
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Commoncog
Running a Fine Dining Restaurant in a Recession How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about...
7 months ago
77

Running a Fine Dining Restaurant in a Recession

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about operating through the capital cycle.
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Commoncog
An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two...
over a year ago
77

An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two months in: what I learnt, what was hard, and what deliberate practice actually feels like.
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balajis.com
The Men's Party Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
a year ago
77

The Men's Party

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
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Citation Needed
Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
a year ago
77

Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
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Commoncog
Dancing Landscapes in Business Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the...
over a year ago
77

Dancing Landscapes in Business

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the wickedness of business.
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Commoncog
Process Improvement is Trickier Than You Think Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because...
over a year ago
76

Process Improvement is Trickier Than You Think

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because they're bad or lazy — but because there are system dynamics that prevent them from doing so. We take a look at what those are.
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Mazdak
Google's Gemini Enters the AI Arena: Ready to Take on OpenAI? Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This...
a year ago
76

Google's Gemini Enters the AI Arena: Ready to Take on OpenAI?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This powerful AI is set to shake things up, potentially rivaling big names like OpenAI and Microsoft. What's the Buzz About Gemini? Gemini comes in three flavors:
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Commoncog
The Dangers of Expansion A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and...
6 months ago
76

The Dangers of Expansion

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and everyone really only learns this through pain.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #189 Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty...
a year ago
76

The Digest #189

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty hours in the Vision Pro, Fairfax Financial, Parks America, Howard Marks, Danny Myer
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Commoncog
The Disaffected PhD Skunkworks: A Story About Process Improvement A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service...
over a year ago
76

The Disaffected PhD Skunkworks: A Story About Process Improvement

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service at Amazon.
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Commoncog
Capital Allocation as an Antidote to Business Luck The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a...
a year ago
76

Capital Allocation as an Antidote to Business Luck

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a business outcome. Capital allocation matters because it allows you more skill, less luck, on the journey to a large outcome.
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 217,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the...
a month ago
76

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 217,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 201,000 to 203,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous...
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Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge 'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
a year ago
76

There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
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Mazdak
AI's Energy Problem: Can We Power Progress Without Wrecking the Planet? ⚡️🌎 AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai...
a year ago
76

AI's Energy Problem: Can We Power Progress Without Wrecking the Planet? ⚡️🌎

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai for COP28, it's more important than ever to understand the complex relationship between AI and climate change. Why it matters: AI could become one of the biggest energy guzzlers on...
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Seeking Wisdom
From Linear to Logistic – Sigmoid Curve and Log Loss Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my...
a year ago
75

From Linear to Logistic – Sigmoid Curve and Log Loss

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Let’s train a model to predict heart disease using sleep and exercise data....
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
a year ago
75

Berkshire Hathaway Energy

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
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FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
a year ago
75

Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #184 Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing,...
a year ago
75

The Digest #184

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing, Damodaran's 2024 data update, Michael Ovitz, Live Oak, Red Bull, Capital allocation
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Bits about Money
Payroll providers, Power, Respect Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is...
a year ago
75

Payroll providers, Power, Respect

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is complicated.
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Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 2 This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts...
a year ago
75

Neural Networks – Part 2

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts before reading this one. When using linear and logistic regression, which involve just a single linear equation, calculating derivatives is easy since there is only one equation...
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The Rational Walk
Inflation Expectations There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers...
11 months ago
75

Inflation Expectations

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers should pay close attention to Warren Buffett's statements and actions.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #194 Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation,...
11 months ago
75

The Digest #194

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons of history
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Citation Needed
Issue 47 – Residual garbage All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
a year ago
75

Issue 47 – Residual garbage

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
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The Rational Walk
Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined...
11 months ago
74

Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined ratio.
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Commoncog
How to Become Data Driven The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious...
over a year ago
74

How to Become Data Driven

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious than you might think.
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Mazdak
Adobe Scraps $20 Billion Figma Deal Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the...
a year ago
74

Adobe Scraps $20 Billion Figma Deal

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the table! This dramatic pivot throws a spotlight on the tightening grip of global regulators on tech mergers, leaving investors and industry players to wonder:
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Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
a year ago
74

Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
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Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
a year ago
74

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
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Mazdak
2024: The Year the Economy Wins? As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a...
a year ago
74

2024: The Year the Economy Wins?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a potential shift towards a more balanced and stable environment. While challenges and uncertainties remain, let's explore the key trends and strategic insights that can guide us...
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Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
a year ago
73

Citation Needed has a new home

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
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Mazdak
Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀
a year ago
73

Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #212 Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates,...
6 months ago
73

The Digest #212

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates, Competing in Search, The American Dream, Li Lu, Deep Dive into AI, The Impact of Debt, and more ...
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Mazdak
Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones...
a year ago
73

Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones of Canadian financial planning. Both offer distinct advantages for saving and investing, but exceeding their annual contribution limits can lead to unwanted financial consequences.
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Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦) Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
a year ago
73

A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦)

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
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Mazdak
Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖 In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open...
a year ago
73

Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open source development has emerged, firing shots at the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. These tech giants have captured much of the AI spotlight in 2023, but the alliance believes...
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FIRE v London
Mayday for IBKR margin lending Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No...
a year ago
73

Mayday for IBKR margin lending

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No longer. If you’ve read my other posts (like this or this or this) on margin lending, and are interested in exploring further, make you read this post before you do. Why I used to like...
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The Rational Walk
Free Articles! All articles older than six months are now free to read.
a year ago
73

Free Articles!

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
All articles older than six months are now free to read.
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The Rational Walk
Buffett Continues to Avoid Long-Term Bonds Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to...
a year ago
73

Buffett Continues to Avoid Long-Term Bonds

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to higher interest rates.
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Farnam Street
Reciprocity: Getting What You Give This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics,...
over a year ago
72

Reciprocity: Getting What You Give

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics, Chemistry and Biology Reciprocity teaches us why win-win relationships are the way to go, why waiters leave candies with the bill, why it’s a good idea to use the least force possible...
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Farnam Street
Language: Why We Hear More Than Words It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me...
over a year ago
72

Language: Why We Hear More Than Words

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me forgetting her birthday! Then why is she throwing dishes in the kitchen? Are the two things related? I wish I had a translator for my spouse. What is going on?” The answer: Extreme...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #215 Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking...
5 months ago
72

The Digest #215

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking Kamala Harris, Weaponizing political anger, Nick Sleep's letters, Howard Marks on risk
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Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
12 months ago
72

Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

12 months ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
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Commoncog
Putting Amazon’s PR/FAQ to Practice What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company...
over a year ago
72

Putting Amazon’s PR/FAQ to Practice

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company context, and what was surprising and difficult about it.
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Citation Needed
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
6 months ago
72

Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
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The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
a year ago
72

The River of Doubt

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
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Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?) Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
3 months ago
72

Debanking (and Debunking?)

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
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Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
a year ago
72

⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
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Commoncog
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
over a year ago
71

You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #179 Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI...
a year ago
71

The Digest #179

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI colonoscopies, Advice on tipping, Alcohol and cardiovascular risks, Nicomachean ethics
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The Rational Walk
The Theban Plays The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot...
5 months ago
71

The Theban Plays

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot has captivated audiences for nearly 2,500 years.
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Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
over a year ago
71

Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #196 Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on...
11 months ago
71

The Digest #196

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on Disney's proxy war, Lessons from Paul Graham, Dunbar's number
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Commoncog
Cultural Advantage is Counter Positioning Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be...
over a year ago
71

Cultural Advantage is Counter Positioning

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be counter-positioning, not process power. Why this is surprising, and why it matters.
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Citation Needed
Polling: Are Democratic voters really “increasingly gravitating towards crypto”? Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How...
6 months ago
71

Polling: Are Democratic voters really “increasingly gravitating towards crypto”?

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How does it stack up to other industry polls, which are often heavily manipulated to paint a deceptively rosy picture?
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Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
over a year ago
70

Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or not?
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Commoncog
Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
over a year ago
70

Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
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Farnam Street
Learning Through Play Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind...
over a year ago
70

Learning Through Play

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind leads us to find new information, better understand our own capabilities, and find unexpected beauty around us. Arithmetic is one example of an area we can explore through play....
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Citation Needed
Fighting for our web A talk from XOXO
5 months ago
70

Fighting for our web

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
A talk from XOXO
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Citation Needed
Issue 67 – Bug out bitcoin Crypto resurfaces on the campaign trail and the FTX fallout continues to unfold. Also, merch!
5 months ago
70

Issue 67 – Bug out bitcoin

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Crypto resurfaces on the campaign trail and the FTX fallout continues to unfold. Also, merch!
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Commoncog
Focus on the Cases Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than...
over a year ago
70

Focus on the Cases

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than synthesised business concepts.
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Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
5 months ago
70

The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
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The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus,...
8 months ago
69

What I’ve Been Reading

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus, Herodotus, the Odyssey, and American Scripture.
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The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 3 During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies...
a year ago
69

Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 3

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies during the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s is a perfect case study.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #213 Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects,...
6 months ago
68

The Digest #213

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects, Personal Bots, Bitcoin, AI vs. Reality, "Useless" Knowledge, Jay Bowen, Rudy Havenstein
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December,...
a month ago
68

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and slipped in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales accelerated in all four...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #211 Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist...
6 months ago
67

The Digest #211

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist investing, Perils of forecasting, Orwell's 1984, Guy Spier, Ben Thompson, Estée Lauder
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #214 September 11, 2001, Nixon vs JFK, Apple's future, Damodaran on decline, Berkshire's book value,...
6 months ago
67

The Digest #214

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
September 11, 2001, Nixon vs JFK, Apple's future, Damodaran on decline, Berkshire's book value, Founder mode, Chasing dividends, Caro on LBJ, Peter Lynch, Epicureanism, Mt Everest
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Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
over a year ago
67

Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
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Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
over a year ago
67

Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #203 American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value...
9 months ago
67

The Digest #203

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value Investor's Club, Nietzsche's world view, Are wrist watches effeminate?, Seinfeld on writing
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Citation Needed
POSSE: Reclaiming social media in a fragmented world A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still...
5 months ago
67

POSSE: Reclaiming social media in a fragmented world

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still maintaining a presence on third-party platforms.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #199 Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's...
9 months ago
67

The Digest #199

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, A long run perspective, the parent-therapy trap
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Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
a year ago
67

Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
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FIRE v London
Becoming an ISA $millionaire This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until...
a year ago
67

Becoming an ISA $millionaire

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until using my full annual ISA allowance(s), which took me much longer than usual last year. This year I actually completed my ISA topups in April, within a few weeks of the start of the...
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Mazdak
Google and the Canadian Government Reach a Deal on Online News Act The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three...
a year ago
66

Google and the Canadian Government Reach a Deal on Online News Act

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three weeks before the act is scheduled to come into effect. The deal will see Google continue to show Canadian news on its platforms in exchange for annual payments to Canadian news...
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Commoncog
Power and Asian Business The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
3 months ago
66

Power and Asian Business

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
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Commoncog
A Most Unlikely Master of Capital Allocation If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in...
a year ago
66

A Most Unlikely Master of Capital Allocation

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in her life, then perhaps you could, too.
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The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Evolving Estate Plan Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new...
8 months ago
66

Warren Buffett’s Evolving Estate Plan

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new charitable trust run by his children.
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Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
a year ago
66

Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #216 Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement",...
5 months ago
65

The Digest #216

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement", Caro's writing process, Buffett's ground rules, Sherwin Williams, Mysterious owls
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Commoncog
Business Reality Without Frameworks A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s...
4 months ago
65

Business Reality Without Frameworks

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s come before.
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Commoncog
Understand the Shape of the Game You're Playing What it looks like when you come up with a diagnosis for your business, a thing that is necessary...
a year ago
65

Understand the Shape of the Game You're Playing

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
What it looks like when you come up with a diagnosis for your business, a thing that is necessary for strategy.
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Farnam Street
Focus to Win Anyone can say no to bad ideas, but only a focused person can say no to good ideas. Focus is about...
over a year ago
65

Focus to Win

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Anyone can say no to bad ideas, but only a focused person can say no to good ideas. Focus is about saying no. When talking about one of the biggest lessons he learned from Steve Jobs, Jonny Ive said it was focus. This sounds really simplistic, but it still shocks me how few...
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The Rational Walk
The Sad Irons During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill...
a year ago
65

The Sad Irons

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill Country. Success was integral to his path to greater power.
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The Rational Walk
The Cost of Corporate Security The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that...
3 months ago
64

The Cost of Corporate Security

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that justifies higher corporate spending to protect executives.
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Farnam Street
A Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active...
over a year ago
64

A Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active participant, the experience can transform the way you think, and how you see the world. *** Here’s a situation familiar to many of us: We decide to take a vacation and go somewhere...
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Seeking Wisdom
Hello LLMs! When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This...
a year ago
64

Hello LLMs!

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This will often give you the insight needed to move forward. I nodded in agreement when I read the above lines from the book Maxims for Thinking Analytically. ChatGPT took the world by...
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Mazdak
Finance News Roundup - Wednesday, 29th November 😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire...
a year ago
64

Finance News Roundup - Wednesday, 29th November

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and a close associate of Warren Buffett, has passed away at the age of 97. Munger was known for his wit, wisdom, and contrarian investment style.
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Mazdak
Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and...
a year ago
64

Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and diversify your portfolio. However, it's important to do your research and take the necessary steps to ensure a successful transition. Here are some practical tips for entrepreneurs...
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Farnam Street
Tit For Tat Tit for tat is a strategy which, according to game theory, is the most effective choice for iterated...
over a year ago
63

Tit For Tat

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Tit for tat is a strategy which, according to game theory, is the most effective choice for iterated games based on mutual cooperation or defection. Both players benefit if they cooperate, but one benefits and the other loses out if only they defect, and both lose out to a lesser...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #218 Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles,...
5 months ago
63

The Digest #218

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles, Doing what you love, Human aging, Ray Ozzie on intelligent machines, Aesop's Fables
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Mazdak
The Weight-Loss Gold Rush A Race to Develop Blockbuster Obesity Drugs
a year ago
63

The Weight-Loss Gold Rush

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
A Race to Develop Blockbuster Obesity Drugs
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Citation Needed
Issue 68 – Opportunity agenda Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as...
4 months ago
63

Issue 68 – Opportunity agenda

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 months ago
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as another enters, and Stand With Crypto bets on the favorites.
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