Mazdak
10 Steps to Transform Your Life
As someone who has built and scaled multiple businesses over decades, I've learned that success...
3 weeks ago
As someone who has built and scaled multiple businesses over decades, I've learned that success isn't about sporadic breakthroughs—it's about consistent, intentional changes in how we think and act.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #220
The Intelligent Investor, Antitrust and Big Tech, Berkshire Hathaway's Moat, Nuclear War Risks, The...
4 weeks ago
The Intelligent Investor, Antitrust and Big Tech, Berkshire Hathaway's Moat, Nuclear War Risks, The Invisible Man, AIG's Rise & Fall, Housing Prices, Barbary Wars, Speeches of Pericles
Musings on Markets
The Sugar Daddy Effect? Corporate venture capital, Sovereign funds and Green Energy!
It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would...
3 weeks ago
It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would offend some people, as sexist or worse. I briefly considering expanding the title to "Sugar Daddies and Molasses Mommies", but that just sounds awkward, or even replacing the words...
Moneyness
Memecoins are the point
Cypherpunks wanted to change the world. We ended up with memecoins.
Our story begins with some very...
3 weeks ago
Cypherpunks wanted to change the world. We ended up with memecoins.
Our story begins with some very smart and idealistic developers, known as cypherpunks, creating a new technology know as a blockchain. Blockchains are databases, but decentralized. Advertised as being...
FIRE v London
Compounding, type II
Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of...
3 weeks ago
Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of compound annual growth rates is something I feel quite viscerally, the more so with each month that I track my portfolio. But I’ve been struck recently by a radical improvement in...
Citation Needed
Issue 69 – Nice
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also,...
2 weeks ago
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also, election spending hits a fever pitch, with several new crypto PACs coming out of the woodwork.
Mazdak
AI Fuels Alphabet's Growth
Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
3 weeks ago
Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
Commoncog
Under The Hood
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
a week ago
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
Citation Needed
I am my own legal department: the promise and peril of “just go independent”
Independent publishing is one important facet of the media ecosystem, and while I love it, I know it...
3 weeks ago
Independent publishing is one important facet of the media ecosystem, and while I love it, I know it is not the path for everyone.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #221
Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro:...
3 weeks ago
Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro: Success or Failure?, Berkshire in the 1960s, Whole Foods, Black Diamond, Merck, Wormholes
Mazdak
Elon Musk: All In
He's the richest man in the world, a tech titan, and now...
a week ago
He's the richest man in the world, a tech titan, and now...
Musings on Markets
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors!
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
a week ago
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
Mazdak
News Publishers Sue Perplexity AI for Copyright Infringement
Jeff Bezos-Backed AI Faces Legal Scrutiny Over Content Scraping Allegations.
3 weeks ago
Jeff Bezos-Backed AI Faces Legal Scrutiny Over Content Scraping Allegations.
Mazdak
Can Zuckerberg Challenge Google's Search Empire?
Mark Zuckerberg is making a bold move to challenge Google's long-standing dominance in the search...
3 weeks ago
Mark Zuckerberg is making a bold move to challenge Google's long-standing dominance in the search engine market.
Mazdak
Free Press or Bezos Press? The Washington Post Stays Silent
This episode examines the Washington Post's controversial decision to no longer endorse presidential...
3 weeks ago
This episode examines the Washington Post's controversial decision to no longer endorse presidential candidates, a move that has sparked outrage and accusations of cowardice, especially given the perceived threat to democracy posed by one of the candidates.
Moneyness
Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new...
a week ago
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new and very strange policy.
All Finns were required to take out a pair of scissors and snip their banknotes in half. This was known in Finland as setelinleikkaus, or banknote cutting....
Mazdak
Tesla's Robotaxi: A Gamble?
Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on...
3 weeks ago
Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on October 10th.
FIRE v London
Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK...
2 weeks ago
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds...
The Rational Walk
Donald Trump’s Resounding Victory
Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable...
2 weeks ago
Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable majority in the electoral college but a likely majority in the national popular vote as well.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #222
Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online...
2 weeks ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online Speech, Price Controls, Shakespeare's Caesar, Musk and SpaceX, Micro-Cap Investing
Mazdak
Anthropic's AI Breakthrough & Boeing's Q3 Disaster
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases...
3 weeks ago
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases mind-blowing new capabilities.
Mazdak
Nvidia Takes the Crown: The AI Chip Giant Dethrones Apple
Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
3 weeks ago
Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence: Catching Up or Falling Behind?
Apple just launched its new AI features with much fanfare, but are they truly intelligent or just a...
3 weeks ago
Apple just launched its new AI features with much fanfare, but are they truly intelligent or just a bunch of glowing gradients and sparkle icons?
Mazdak
Is Tesla's Full Self-Driving REALLY Safer Than Humans?
Tesla's latest vehicle safety report claims that Autopilot has a crash rate of one accident per 7...
3 weeks ago
Tesla's latest vehicle safety report claims that Autopilot has a crash rate of one accident per 7 million miles, significantly lower than the U.S.
The Rational Walk
Stepping into the River
Just like no man steps into the same river twice, reading a worthwhile book multiple times continues...
2 weeks ago
Just like no man steps into the same river twice, reading a worthwhile book multiple times continues to yield new insights over the years.
Mazdak
Unlock the Power of Persuasion: The 4-Part Key to Getting What You Want
Imagine having just one skill that could propel your business to unprecedented success.
2 weeks ago
Imagine having just one skill that could propel your business to unprecedented success.
Citation Needed
Issue 70 – The Cryptocurrency States of America
Crypto’s efforts to buy the 2024 elections paid off, and we’re in for a bumpy ride.
6 days ago
Crypto’s efforts to buy the 2024 elections paid off, and we’re in for a bumpy ride.
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence is FINALLY HERE! 🤯 What You NEED to Know! 🧠
Join us as we explore Apple's groundbreaking AI platform:
3 weeks ago
Join us as we explore Apple's groundbreaking AI platform:
Mazdak
AI Gone Wrong? Can Chatbots Be Held Responsible for Suicide?
This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and...
3 weeks ago
This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and later died by suicide.
Mazdak
TFSA Talk: Unlocking Tax-Free Wealth 🇨🇦
Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
2 weeks ago
Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
Mazdak
How Big Tech Could Lose Everything to Appease Trump
In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald...
3 weeks ago
In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald Trump, a man who has openly attacked these companies, return to power.
Mazdak
Big Tech Ad Boom
Tech giants are raking in cash as the digital ad market explodes!
2 weeks ago
Tech giants are raking in cash as the digital ad market explodes!
Mazdak
Anthropic's AI Breakthrough & Boeing's Q3 Disaster
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases...
3 weeks ago
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases mind-blowing new capabilities.
Mazdak
Loonie on the Brink: Can Canada Escape US Monetary Policy?
The Canadian and American economies are deeply intertwined.
3 weeks ago
The Canadian and American economies are deeply intertwined.
Musings on Markets
The Siren Song of Sustainability: The Theocratic Trifecta's Third Leg!
You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in...
a week ago
You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in sanctimony, nurtured in hypocrisy and sold with sophistry. My voyage with ESG began with curiosity in my 2019 exploration of what it purported to measure, turned to cynicism as the...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #224
Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending...
6 days ago
Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending human lifespan, Fastenal's success story, Buffett's early investments, IKEA's founder
Mazdak
Meta's AI & Reuters: A New Era of News?
Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading...
3 weeks ago
Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading global news provider, to bring real-time news updates directly to users through Meta's AI chatbot.
Mazdak
The Latest in Smartglasses Tech
From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of...
3 days ago
From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of smartglasses is heating up!
Mazdak
Tired of Chasing Leads? Elevate Your Value Proposition
Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
3 weeks ago
Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
Mazdak
RRSP vs TFSA: Making the Right Choice for Your Financial Future
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful...
2 weeks ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful investment vehicles available to Canadians.
Mazdak
Block, TikTok & Beyond
From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping...
a week ago
From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping our digital world.
Mazdak
Tech Titans: AI Race Heats Up!
We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial...
3 weeks ago
We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial intelligence.
Mazdak
Compound Interest: A Comprehensive Guide
Compound interest is often called the "eighth wonder of the world" and for good reason.
2 weeks ago
Compound interest is often called the "eighth wonder of the world" and for good reason.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #223
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected...
a week ago
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, Market Prices as Political Predictors, The Three Indias, Semiconductor Progress
Mazdak
Popular Business Tips That Are Actually Hurting Your Success
In the age of LinkedIn influencers and business gurus, we're bombarded with seemingly wise advice...
a week ago
In the age of LinkedIn influencers and business gurus, we're bombarded with seemingly wise advice that often does more harm than good.
Citation Needed
Wind the clock
A message to those asking “what do I do now?”
a week ago
A message to those asking “what do I do now?”
Mazdak
Meta Fined & FBI on Polymarket
Meta slapped with a HUGE EU fine, the FBI is investigating Polymarket...
a week ago
Meta slapped with a HUGE EU fine, the FBI is investigating Polymarket...
Moneyness
Pricing the anonymity of banknotes
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a
standard set of payments...
11 hours ago
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a
standard set of payments services, they also offer financial anonymity.
This post introduces the idea of trying to price the anonymity
component.
To help think about why we might want to price anonymous...
Mazdak
ChatGPT vs. Google: The AI Search Wars
The battle for the future of search is on! ChatGPT, the AI chatbot from OpenAI, can now search the...
2 weeks ago
The battle for the future of search is on! ChatGPT, the AI chatbot from OpenAI, can now search the web, putting it in direct competition with Google.
Mazdak
The Rise of Nvidia and the Fall of Intel
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its...
2 weeks ago
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its influence in the tech world.
Mazdak
RRSP Guide for New Immigrants to Canada: Everything You Need to Know
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the...
a week ago
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP).
Mazdak
Trump's Antitrust Agenda: Big Tech in the Balance
Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
2 weeks ago
Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
Mazdak
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
a week ago
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
Mazdak
AI.com to Chat.com: OpenAI's Domain Domination
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've...
a week ago
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've dropped a huge amount of cash – likely over $15.5 million – to snag the premium domain Chat.com.
Mazdak
Today's Top Tech News - Amazon's Discount Store
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
a week ago
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
The Rational Walk
The Digest #225
A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role...
3 days ago
A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role in Trump's Victory, Taxes in Retirement, James J. Hill, IKEA, F. A. Hayek, Shakespeare
Mazdak
Regulating Crypto
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end...
6 days ago
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end for crypto, or a necessary step towards mainstream adoption?
Mazdak
DOJ Breaks Up Google, Elden Ring Sold, and Windows Goes Meta
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will...
2 days ago
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will the internet ever be the same?
Commoncog
Stan Slap on the Art of Building Effective Employee Cultures
Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent...
23 hours ago
Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent model for shaping employee culture.
Mazdak
Amazon Glasses: Seeing the Future of Delivery
Amazon is developing smart glasses for their delivery drivers to navigate routes, locate packages,...
a week ago
Amazon is developing smart glasses for their delivery drivers to navigate routes, locate packages, and even take photos of deliveries as proof for customers.
Mazdak
Buffett's $325 Billion Warning
Is the legendary investor Warren Buffett sounding the alarm on the market? Berkshire Hathaway,...
a week ago
Is the legendary investor Warren Buffett sounding the alarm on the market? Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett's company, is sitting on a record $325 billion in cash after selling off major chunks of Apple and Bank of America stock.
The Rational Walk
A Dangerous Interregnum
President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russian territory...
3 days ago
President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russian territory risks plunging the world into crisis in the finals months of his administration.
Mazdak
Tech Today - Apple Smart Home Camera
Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
a week ago
Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
Mazdak
CPP vs OAS: Understanding Canada's Core Retirement Benefits 🇨🇦
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension...
a week ago
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS).
Mazdak
Tesla's Trump Card: How a Presidency Could Fuel a Trillion-Dollar Boom
What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
a week ago
What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
Mazdak
The Psychology of Investing: 5 Critical Traps That Can Destroy Your Wealth
The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising...
2 days ago
The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising portfolios into cautionary tales.
Mazdak
AI Energy Fears: Overblown or the Next Crisis?
Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
15 hours ago
Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
Mazdak
How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their...
a year ago
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their tax liabilities. One such method, known as transfer pricing, has become increasingly prevalent in recent years, raising concerns about fairness and equity in the global tax...
Commoncog
When Action Beats Prediction
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ......
a year ago
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ... isn't. What a theory of expertise in entrepreneurship tells us about creating new things in business.
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
11 months ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
a year ago
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
Citation Needed
We need to talk about digital ownership
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually...
9 months ago
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually want.
Citation Needed
Issue 58 – Threats to the stability and integrity of Ethereum
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's...
6 months ago
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's creditors, and Biden threatens a crypto veto.
FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
6 months ago
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
Seeking Wisdom
A great investor is a great rejector
I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for...
6 months ago
I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for example — I developed a stronger understanding and appreciation for it after reading the book Modeling Life. Similarly, the investing book What I Learned About Investing from Darwin...
Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
6 months ago
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
Commoncog
The Skill of Capital
What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk...
a year ago
What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk through three stories, and then talk about the shape of the skill in practice.
Seeking Wisdom
Make Every Day Count
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big...
a year ago
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big project at work on time. I’d made the journey from the office to my home so many times, my car almost seemed to know the way by itself. My hands were on the wheel, but…
Commoncog
Process Behaviour Charts: More Than You Need To Know
The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional...
a year ago
The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional variation. This is everything you need to know to use it well.
Commoncog
Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do...
9 months ago
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do it. This is everything you need to know to actually become data driven, from scratch, using the same first principles that Amazon, Koch, and Toyota used back in their day.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Equilibrium
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
7 months ago
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier post first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium, oscillation,...
FIRE v London
Feeling broke
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is...
a year ago
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is captured in my monthly portfolio updates, I thought it was worth recording some of my emotions while they are still fresh. Two years ago Turning the clock back, my financial...
Commoncog
The Limits of Operational Excellence
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven,...
7 months ago
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven, achieve operational excellence, and die, and others acquire Process Power and win?
FIRE v London
The richest person you know
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are...
a year ago
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are among the highest earning and/or richest people in the UK. I bet however that not many of you feel that way. Let’s start with income To be in the top 1% of earnings in… Continue...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #197
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
7 months ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
The Rational Walk
Apple’s Dystopian iPad Video
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision...
6 months ago
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision crushing symbols of art and culture.
Moneyness
Why I'm in favor of financial illiteracy
I'm not a fan of mandatory investor education classes. The issue was brought up recently by former...
7 months ago
I'm not a fan of mandatory investor education classes. The issue was brought up recently by former chair of FDIC, Sheila Bair, who sees such classes as ways to stop future FTX-style disasters.
The model of finance I've been using for many years is the fairly dismal dark forest...
Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
a year ago
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
7 months ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
Citation Needed
Become a Wikipedian in 30 minutes
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be...
8 months ago
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be proliferating on the web? The number one thing you can do is learn to edit, and I will walk you through how to get started in only 30 minutes.
Mazdak
Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market?
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more...
7 months ago
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more pressing than ever. Soaring property values and rising interest rates have created a complex landscape, leaving many wondering: is homeownership still the golden ticket to building...
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked...
9 months ago
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked spectacularly well. Will Berkshire's playbook continue to perform well in the future?
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
8 months ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
Commoncog
Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts
Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
8 months ago
Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
The Rational Walk
The Odyssey
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
6 months ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
Commoncog
Dell's Capital Expertise
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at...
a year ago
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at capital allows you to make moves that aren't available to a novice business operator.
The Rational Walk
Dollar General: Value or Value Trap?
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some...
a year ago
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some initial thoughts about the company as well as the overall retail landscape.
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
9 months ago
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
6 months ago
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
Musings on Markets
Catastrophic Risk: Investing and Business Implications
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers...
9 months ago
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers on companies that I should value next. While I don't have the time or the bandwidth to value all of the suggested companies, a reader from Iceland, a couple of weeks ago, made a...
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
6 months ago
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
Seeking Wisdom
What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a...
6 months ago
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a plate full of french fries. It takes an enormous amount of energy to break bad habits. I’ve broken bad habits under two conditions: (a) it’s a do-or-die situation, or (b) you have a...
Moneyness
Why my favorite coinage is Byzantine coinage
What do I like about Byzantine coinage?
Most people probably admire the Byzantine solidus, a gold...
8 months ago
What do I like about Byzantine coinage?
Most people probably admire the Byzantine solidus, a gold coin that maintained its weight and purity for over 600 years, which is quite remarkable for a coin. The solidus was exported all over the world, including to Europe, which lacked...
balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got
Your assets are the government's collateral.
7 months ago
Your assets are the government's collateral.
Seeking Wisdom
Ruturaj Gaikwad, P-value, and Bayes’ Theorem
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is...
6 months ago
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is my favorite team. Ruturaj Gaikwad, the new CSK captain for the IPL 2024 season, lost 10 out of 13 tosses: LLLLWLLLLLLWL. The probability of seeing the sequence LLLLWLLLLLLWL is...
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023!
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
9 months ago
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
The Rational Walk
Free Articles!
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
7 months ago
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 1
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
12 months ago
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. I love playing and watching cricket. The dominance India showed in the recently concluded World Cup is astounding. I have never seen anything like it in...
Commoncog
Lesley Sim on Skill Acceleration in Ultimate
Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World...
a year ago
Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World Championship Team in 2020, her approach to skill acceleration, and why a teaching technique designed for dogs and dolphins works just as well on humans!
FIRE v London
In praise of Berkshire Hathaway
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the...
9 months ago
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the year 2000. I loved the story. Starting from, as the story was told back then, humble beginnings and a paper round, Warren Buffett (and Charlie – who I will stop mentioning but...
Bits about Money
The Bond villain compliance strategy
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out...
12 months ago
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out for Binance and its CEO. Spoiler: poorly.
Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US)
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
10 months ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
Citation Needed
Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me?
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto...
6 months ago
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto criminals. Also, lawmakers take another stab at stablecoin regulation.
Mazdak
Choosing the Optimal Legal Structure for Your Small Business 🇨🇦
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate...
10 months ago
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate legal framework can feel like traversing a complex maze. This guide sheds light on the merits and drawbacks of the three primary options: sole proprietorship, partnership, and...
Moneyness
"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did."
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases...
5 months ago
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases wend their way through courts in the Netherlands and the U.S., we continue to learn how society's money laundering laws will be applied to some of the more unique financial entities...
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
7 months ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
7 months ago
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
FIRE v London
Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an...
9 months ago
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an impulse while travelling back from the Coastal Folly. My main frame of reference to the cathedral being those notorious Russian nerve agent assassins citing it as their reason for...
The Rational Walk
Will Berkshire Hathaway Pay a Dividend?
Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well...
9 months ago
Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well served by Warren Buffett's reluctance to send out dividend checks.
The Rational Walk
The Dividend Signal
Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or...
6 months ago
Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or negative development for shareholders?
Moneyness
Thoughts on the Tornado Cash defence and what happens when everyone adopts it
Payments companies are regularly punished for engaging in money laundering. MoneyGram, for instance,...
7 months ago
Payments companies are regularly punished for engaging in money laundering. MoneyGram, for instance, has has to pay multiple fines. Western Union was famously busted in 2017. Meanwhile, Cash App is being probed as we speak for inadequate anti-money laundering controls.
In the...
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
7 months ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI)
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
9 months ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
Moneyness
It's time to impose Iran-calibre sanctions on Russia
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long...
10 months ago
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long list of sanctions that the G7 coalition has placed on Russia in response to its attack on Ukraine are surprisingly light compared to the fewer but far more-draconian sanctions...
balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
5 months ago
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #193
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect...
8 months ago
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect on the brain, Race and cardiovascular disease, Inflation's effect on insurance pricing
The Rational Walk
Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on...
6 months ago
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on education, ethics, religion, and many other subjects.
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
8 months ago
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
The Rational Walk
Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023)
A life well lived
11 months ago
Moneyness
What does the recent ruling on the Emergencies Act mean for your banking rights?
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy...
9 months ago
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy protest in 2022 contravened the protestor's rights. In this post I want to provide my reading of this particular ruling and what is at stake for Canadians and their bank...
FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
8 months ago
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
Moneyness
Renovatio monetae
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of...
6 months ago
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of renovatio monetae. Twice a year whoever held it had to bring it in to be changed for new coins at a rate of four old coins to three new coins. That suggests an annualized tax rate on...
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
9 months ago
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
The Rational Walk
Poor Charlie’s Almanack
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five...
7 months ago
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five psychological tendencies that can cause human misjudgment.
balajis.com
Prompts are Tiny Programs
And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
10 months ago
And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
Mazdak
Salary vs. Dividends: Picking the Right Paycheck as a Business Owner
Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner...
9 months ago
Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner faces unique financial considerations. One critical choice arises early on: to pay yourself a salary or take dividends? Understanding the pros and cons of each path empowers you to...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2024: Interest Rates in 2023 - A Rule-breaking Year!
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the...
10 months ago
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery. In this post, I look at interest rates,...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2024: The data speaks, but what does it say?
In January 1993, I was valuing a retail company, and I found myself wondering what a reasonable...
10 months ago
In January 1993, I was valuing a retail company, and I found myself wondering what a reasonable margin was for a firm operating in the retail business. In pursuit of an answer to that question, I used company-specific data from Value Line, one of the earliest entrants into the...
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
11 months ago
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
10 months ago
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
5 months ago
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
Citation Needed
Privacy, human rights, and Tornado Cash
I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
6 months ago
I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
Moneyness
The first round of U.S. secondary sanctions on Russia is working
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing...
9 months ago
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing payments for a narrow range of products that are on a so-called "green list," reports Ragip Soylu. This broad debanking of Russia by Turkey is part of the fallout from President...
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
a year ago
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #180
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting,...
11 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting, Damodaran on key person risk, Microsoft's IPO, Howard Marks and Annie Duke on risk
The Rational Walk
The Digest #192
Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS,...
8 months ago
Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS, The bear case for China, Chris Davis, Michael Mauboussin
Citation Needed
Issue 60 – Raging in favor of the machine
The crypto industry jumps on the Trump train.
4 months ago
The crypto industry jumps on the Trump train.
Citation Needed
Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through...
5 months ago
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through the House.
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
8 months ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #198
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How...
6 months ago
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How to spend your days, AI and productivity
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and...
7 months ago
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and therefore warrant only six years of imprisonment. Prosecutors argue that 40–50 years are justified.
Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
5 months ago
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
10 months ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
7 months ago
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #177
Remembering Charlie Munger
11 months ago
Remembering Charlie Munger
Citation Needed
We can have a different web
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
6 months ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
Commoncog
Colin Bryar on the practice of Amazon's Weekly Business Review
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of...
a year ago
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of Amazon's secret operational weapons: the Weekly Business Review.
Moneyness
The effects of Russian sanctions as portrayed in YouTube videos
Last month American provocateur Tucker Carlson visited a Russian grocery store. Because it was...
7 months ago
Last month American provocateur Tucker Carlson visited a Russian grocery store. Because it was filled to the brim with food, Carlson claims that western sanctions placed on Russia aren't having an effect. "We've been told sanctions on Russia have had a devastating effect on its
...
Commoncog
Making Sense of Deming
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of...
7 months ago
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of the most powerful things you'll find on the Operations side of the business expertise triad. Read this, so you don't have to read multiple books to apply his ideas.
Moneyness
Why do sanctioned entities use Tether?
Tether, a stablecoin, has been in the news for offering sanctioned actors such as Hamas a means to...
11 months ago
Tether, a stablecoin, has been in the news for offering sanctioned actors such as Hamas a means to participate in the global payments ecosystem.
In this post I want to explore in more depth how Tether is being used to dodge sanctions. I'm going to avoid drawing on the Hamas...
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
Citation Needed
Issue 57 - I take deep breath and I get real high
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC...
6 months ago
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC is on a Wells notice bender.
The Rational Walk
Paid Subscriptions
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
7 months ago
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
Mazdak
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
10 months ago
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of...
7 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of Anne Frank, Endurance, Crime and Punishment, and the Iliad.
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance)
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
4 months ago
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
FIRE v London
May ’24: UK election called
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
5 months ago
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal: The Canary in the Coal Mine?
Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence....
5 months ago
Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence. Recent development at Daily Journal raise concerns.
Commoncog
The Secret at the Heart of Continuous Improvement
Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart...
7 months ago
Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart that doesn't seem to get talked about.
Citation Needed
Issue 55 – Halving a bad time
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed...
7 months ago
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed fraud and Uniswap got a Wells notice.
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
11 months ago
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
Citation Needed
Cryptocurrency companies have raised over $115 million to influence US elections this cycle, and...
As election season kicks into high gear, we need to watch how cryptocurrency companies are...
5 months ago
As election season kicks into high gear, we need to watch how cryptocurrency companies are influencing US politics.
FIRE v London
June ’24: Election fever
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west...
4 months ago
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west country, the south coast and the Isle of Wight; partly overseas – I visited Ibiza for a few days of R&R. Meanwhile, the election campaigns were in full swing. Nigel Farage did his...
Commoncog
Learning About Moats the Hard Way
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end...
5 months ago
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end of his career.
Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
10 months ago
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #201
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
5 months ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
Moneyness
Monetagium
An English penny minted by William the Conqueror, who brought monetagium to England. Source: History...
5 months ago
An English penny minted by William the Conqueror, who brought monetagium to England. Source: History in Coins
The way that a modern mafia protection racket works is the mafia starts doing very bad things to regular folks, say you and your business. To stop the damage, you pay...
Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
4 months ago
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
6 months ago
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2024: Profitability - The End Game for Business?
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free...
9 months ago
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the...
Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income?
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
9 months ago
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
Citation Needed
AI isn't useless. But is it worth it?
AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
7 months ago
AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
7 months ago
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
Moneyness
Inflation as a tax
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order...
a year ago
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order to fight his wars. This provided Henry with the financial firepower to annex the city of Boulogne from the French in 1544, albeit at the price of England experiencing one of its...
Moneyness
Are the sanctions on Russia working?
I very much enjoy economist Robin Brooks's tweets, especially his charts showing how sanctions...
8 months ago
I very much enjoy economist Robin Brooks's tweets, especially his charts showing how sanctions imposed on Russia have affected regional trade patterns. While direct trade between Europe and Russia has collapsed thanks to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, the...
Mazdak
The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large....
7 months ago
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large. Enter the 4% rule, a popular guideline that suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and adjust for inflation thereafter. But is it a guaranteed...
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
11 months ago
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #206
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of...
4 months ago
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of Silicon Valley, Self-esteem and outer scorecards, MMT's founder is worried about deficits
Moneyness
The intensifying effort to isolate Russia's banks
Last week the U.S. government expanded the coverage of its secondary sanctions to encompass most of...
5 months ago
Last week the U.S. government expanded the coverage of its secondary sanctions to encompass most of Russia's banks. It's a very big step, one that has been long-awaited by sanctions watchers, and will likely have significant repercussions for Russia and its trading partners....
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal Annual Meeting Notes
A reader has generously shared his notes from the Daily Journal annual meeting which took place in...
5 months ago
A reader has generously shared his notes from the Daily Journal annual meeting which took place in Los Angeles on February 15, 2024.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Linear Algebra
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life....
6 months ago
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my previous posts first to gain a solid understanding on how to model dynamic systems. This post focuses on how linear algebra is employed in modeling dynamic...
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
a year ago
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
Moneyness
Are central banks too reliant on SWIFT for domestic payments?
Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally...
11 months ago
Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally important to our lives, but we never see them in action. All of a nations' electronic payments are ultimately completed, or settled, on these systems. If they stop working, our...
FIRE v London
I’m 28, and can’t figure out how to start on FatFIRE – what would you do in my shoes?
From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from...
5 months ago
From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from the London School of Economics in 2017 after which I went through the hardest few years of my life mentally and ended up unemployed or in dead-end low paid jobs. I currently work...
Mazdak
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds : The Great Investment Debate
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual...
7 months ago
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds can be a head-scratcher. Both offer diversification, professional management options, and access to a variety of asset classes. However, they differ significantly in how they...
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
a year ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 3
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. The MNIST dataset is the “hello world” of machine learning, containing images of handwritten digits that are used to train machine learning models. It...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #195
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
7 months ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
The Rational Walk
Hesiod’s Works and Days
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it...
6 months ago
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it was 2,700 years ago.
The Rational Walk
Burlington Northern Santa Fe — 2023 Results
Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
8 months ago
Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
Citation Needed
25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious...
7 months ago
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious crime."
Mazdak
How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie: A Summary and Key Takeaways
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential...
a year ago
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential self-help books ever written. First published in 1936, it has sold over 50 million copies and been translated into over 30 languages. The book is a practical guide to improving...
Commoncog
One Definition of Wisdom
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
9 months ago
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
Farnam Street
Why Write
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
a year ago
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
Commoncog
What To Think When Looking at a Chart
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb...
a year ago
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb question that nobody seems to talk about.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
11 months ago
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
Moneyness
It's time to get rid of "crypto"
Call me a pedant, but I'm not a fan of the word "crypto". It may have been a serviceable category...
8 months ago
Call me a pedant, but I'm not a fan of the word "crypto". It may have been a serviceable category back in 2011 when there was only one type of crypto thingy – bitcoin. But it's ceased to be a meaningful term and, if anything, it causes a regression in understanding.
Source:...
Mazdak
The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured...
11 months ago
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured the attention of the world. ChatGPT's ability to generate human-quality text, translate languages, write different kinds of creative content, and answer questions in an informative...
The Rational Walk
By diverse means we arrive at the same end
Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
a year ago
Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
Commoncog
The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same...
a year ago
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same time? Deming — who came up with these data techniques — believe that it is possible. I'm not so sure.
Mazdak
Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful...
a year ago
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful player in the industry. This deal puts an end to a years-long investigation into Binance. The deal: CZ agreed to pay $50 million in fines and is prohibited from operating or managing...
Moneyness
Kraken v Kraken, or how to protect the public from crypto exchange failures
It's been a full year since FTX International and FTX-US collapsed, and the shocking thing is –...
a year ago
It's been a full year since FTX International and FTX-US collapsed, and the shocking thing is – there is still no regulated crypto venue in the U.S.! You'd think some lessons would have been learnt.
To best protect the public from the Sam Bankman-Frieds of the world, what the...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in...
8 months ago
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in the game, repurchase activity, and stock based compensation.
Citation Needed
Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried...
8 months ago
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried doesn't want to go to jail for 100 years.
Citation Needed
Follow the Crypto
FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024...
4 months ago
FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024 elections in the United States.
The Rational Walk
The Magic of Compounding
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my...
4 months ago
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my current net worth.
Commoncog
Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a...
a year ago
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a deliberate practice training program isn't as difficult as you might think.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2024: A Stock Comeback - The Low Expectations Game!
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation...
10 months ago
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation out of control and a recession on the horizon. While stocks had their ups and downs during the year, they ended the year strong, and recouped, at least in the aggregate, most of...
Mazdak
The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
11 months ago
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
Commoncog
Commoncog's Next Phase
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains...
12 months ago
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains series free, and one more thing.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #176
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land,...
a year ago
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land, John Oliver skewers dollar stores, Apple regrets, The Great Books Journal
Commoncog
A Big Part of Being Data Driven is Will Not Skill
What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming...
4 months ago
What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming data driven in business more broadly.
The Rational Walk
Prometheus Bound
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus...
5 months ago
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus dating back to the fifth century BC.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #200
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks,...
6 months ago
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks, Appnesia, Stress and heart disease, Steve Jobs, Flying Cars, Dunkirk, Napoleon
Mazdak
2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to...
10 months ago
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to generate human-quality text, while chipmaker Nvidia pushed the boundaries of what's possible with graphics processing units (GPUs). But amidst the hype, there were also concerns about...
Citation Needed
"The Monkey Fraud": An interview with Ryder Ripps
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club...
7 months ago
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club trademark infringement and racism.
The Rational Walk
Two Sides of the Same Coin
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the...
10 months ago
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the longer it will take to achieve financial independence.
Moneyness
Your finances are being snooped on. Here's how
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite...
4 months ago
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite able to articulate how. We know that we're being snooped on by two groups, corporations and the government. This post will focus on how the government snoops on our transactions,...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2024: Danger and Opportunity - Bringing Risk into the Equation!
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023,...
9 months ago
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound. In this post, I look at risk, a central theme in finance and...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #187
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the...
9 months ago
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the market, Damodaran data updates, Apple packaging, Samsung, Big Pharma
Citation Needed
Issue 61 – Soft war by the enemy
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the...
4 months ago
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the crypto lobby, and some new regulatory actions.
Musings on Markets
Good Intentions, Perverse Outcomes: The Impact of Impact Investing!
I have made no secret of my disdain for ESG, an over-hyped and over-sold acronym, that has been a...
a year ago
I have made no secret of my disdain for ESG, an over-hyped and over-sold acronym, that has been a gravy train for a whole host of players, including fund managers, consultants and academics. In response, I have been told that the problem is not with the idea of ESG, but in its...
Citation Needed
Video: The charges against Binance
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant...
10 months ago
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant Binance and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, I started writing up an overview of everything that had happened to the company over the past few years. I'd written separately about a...
Mazdak
The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real...
8 months ago
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real estate in Canada. It's important to note that this strategy is generally more complex and may not be suitable for everyone. When Owning Real Estate Personally Might Be Better
The Rational Walk
The Digest #191
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel...
8 months ago
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel shareholders, Investing lessons from Earnest Shackleton, Google's Gemini AI goes off the rails
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and...
3 months ago
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #208
Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs...
3 months ago
Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs in 1983, Microsoft deep dive, Marks on risk, Luca Delanna on ergodicity, Guadalcanal
Mazdak
A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the...
11 months ago
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the economy that remains ill: the office sector of the U.S. commercial real-estate market. ** What's the Problem?** Hybrid/remote work: What began as a two-week work-from-home...
Mazdak
Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket?
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the...
10 months ago
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the dream of homeownership into a distant mirage for many Canadians. But before you resign yourself to renting forever, consider this: owning a home may not be the guaranteed...
Commoncog
Tacit Expertise Extraction, Software Engineering Edition
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior...
9 months ago
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior software engineers'. Useful to anyone who might want to accelerate their own skills.
Mazdak
A Review and Analysis of "The Laws of Human Nature" by Robert Greene
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different...
9 months ago
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different approach in his 2018 book, "The Laws of Human Nature." Instead of focusing on acquiring power over others, he dives deep into the intricate workings of human psychology, unveiling...
Musings on Markets
The Corporate Life Cycle: Corporate Finance, Valuation and Investing Implications!
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children...
3 months ago
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children are quick to point out my age, and I accept that reality, for the most part. I understand that I am too old to exercise without stretching first or eat a heaping plate of cheese...
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
a year ago
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
7 months ago
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
The Rational Walk
Biden’s Withdrawal and the Limits of Gaslighting
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the...
4 months ago
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the Democratic Party and allies in the mainstream media.
Citation Needed
Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details
I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
10 months ago
I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #186
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment...
10 months ago
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment checklists, Shane Parrish interviews Tom Gayner, Novo Nordisk, Howard Marks on interest rates
Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
10 months ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
Bits about Money
The business of wallets
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
6 months ago
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
Citation Needed
Issue 53 – Choose rich
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
8 months ago
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #190
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben...
9 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben Graham's summer on a farm, Income taxes, Interviews of Bruce Berkowitz and Howard Marks, and more...
Citation Needed
Issue 47 – Residual garbage
All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
11 months ago
All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
Commoncog
The Capital Cycle
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
a year ago
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
Commoncog
Focus Doesn't Mean Doing One Thing at a Time
Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time....
over a year ago
Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time. This is what focus looks like at an organisational level, told through the story of a business turnaround and the Marine Corps approach to war.
The Rational Walk
Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of...
12 months ago
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of the annual commitments pledged in 2006.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Questions
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five...
7 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five potential questions for the Q&A session.
The Rational Walk
Improving Disclosure for Public Companies
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing...
8 months ago
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing three simple proposals.
balajis.com
The Men's Party
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
9 months ago
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
The Rational Walk
The Other Side of the Trade
Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other...
5 months ago
Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other stocks to temporarily crash on June 3, 2024.
Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
a year ago
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
Bits about Money
Payroll providers, Power, Respect
Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is...
11 months ago
Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is complicated.
Citation Needed
Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x"
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
10 months ago
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
Mazdak
Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its...
9 months ago
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its acquisition of smart TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion. This deal is far more than just about TVs; it's a strategic play by Walmart to become a major force in the booming
Citation Needed
Review: Chris Dixon's Read Write Own
Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain...
9 months ago
Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain solutionists.
The Rational Walk
A Seamless Web of Deserved Trust
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
10 months ago
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
Moneyness
Bitcoin as a tool of U.S. economic statecraft
Riot Platform's Rockdale, Texas facility, North America’s largest Bitcoin mining farm by developed...
3 months ago
Riot Platform's Rockdale, Texas facility, North America’s largest Bitcoin mining farm by developed capacity [source]
Can a network that has been marketed as being resistant to government power be harnessed by the U.S. administrative state in order to attain its foreign policy...
balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
3 months ago
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
Commoncog
The Shape of a Technological Window
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how...
a year ago
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how he used it over the course of his career. Note: this is a follow-up to and an update for the Commoncog Case Library Beta.
Seeking Wisdom
Focus on the process, not the outcome
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket...
3 months ago
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket team, has two non-negotiables. As an offspinner, you must never get cut, and you must never get driven through the covers. Even when Ravichandran Ashwin takes five wickets, Raman will...
Mazdak
2024: The Year the Economy Wins?
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a...
11 months ago
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a potential shift towards a more balanced and stable environment. While challenges and uncertainties remain, let's explore the key trends and strategic insights that can guide us...
Mazdak
Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and...
10 months ago
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and battling for the last box of Oreos. The retail giant is about to revolutionize your shopping experience with a generative AI makeover. Imagine this: You're planning a Super Bowl bash,...
Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
10 months ago
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
11 months ago
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
10 months ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 2
This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for...
10 months ago
This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I concluded the previous post by explaining how Attention works. You can download the Excel sheet and Python code that explains how Attention from here and...
FIRE v London
Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to...
a year ago
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to check out Dorset’s Chesil beach. We struck lucky with the weather and had a fine, distinctly non-London, time, over a very blustery Easter weekend. My walking shoes seem to have...
Commoncog
Dancing Landscapes in Business
Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the...
over a year ago
Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the wickedness of business.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
9 months ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
FIRE v London
Mayday for IBKR margin lending
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No...
a year ago
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No longer. If you’ve read my other posts (like this or this or this) on margin lending, and are interested in exploring further, make you read this post before you do. Why I used to like...
Moneyness
Are flatcoins a good idea?
I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea.
The idea for flatcoins has...
11 months ago
I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea.
The idea for flatcoins has been around for a while, but it got a wider airing when it popped up in a Coinbase marketing piece from earlier this year. Now, arch-crypto hater Nouriel Roubini has undergone a...
Moneyness
Do bitcoin ETFs conflict with bitcoin's original ethos?
Some folks are suggesting that a bitcoin ETF is absurd because it doesn't fit with Bitcoin's...
10 months ago
Some folks are suggesting that a bitcoin ETF is absurd because it doesn't fit with Bitcoin's original ethos. On the contrary, I think it's a nice snug fit.
It would be a misunderstanding of bitcoin's history to assume that it was the idealism of cypherpunk-ism that gave birth to...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #184
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing,...
10 months ago
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing, Damodaran's 2024 data update, Michael Ovitz, Live Oak, Red Bull, Capital allocation
Mazdak
A Brighter Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024?
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples...
11 months ago
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples through the housing market, sparking both excitement and cautious optimism among prospective buyers and existing homeowners alike. While the prospect of lower mortgage rates is...
The Rational Walk
The Iliad
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
7 months ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
The Rational Walk
Endurance
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived...
9 months ago
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived shipwreck, ice floes, and constant danger.
The Rational Walk
The Trust Deficit
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the...
4 months ago
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the urgent need to correct course.
The Rational Walk
Buffett Continues to Avoid Long-Term Bonds
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to...
a year ago
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to higher interest rates.
Citation Needed
Issue 62 – Grassroots
Coinbase’s Stand With Crypto Alliance fudges the numbers, a (former) crypto industry CEO has a...
4 months ago
Coinbase’s Stand With Crypto Alliance fudges the numbers, a (former) crypto industry CEO has a meltdown, and another exchange suffers a nine-figure hack.
Mazdak
Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open...
11 months ago
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open source development has emerged, firing shots at the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. These tech giants have captured much of the AI spotlight in 2023, but the alliance believes...
Musings on Markets
Tesla in November 2023 : Story twists and turns, with value consequences!
I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be...
a year ago
I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be misleading, since Tesla never leaves the news. Some of that attention comes from the company's products and innovations, but much of it comes from having Elon Musk as a CEO, a man...
Commoncog
An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two...
a year ago
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two months in: what I learnt, what was hard, and what deliberate practice actually feels like.
The Rational Walk
The Oresteia
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery,...
5 months ago
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery, mankind finds its way toward due process and justice.
Commoncog
Setting the Business Expertise Series Free
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her...
a year ago
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her collaborators.
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
a year ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
Commoncog
How to Become Data Driven
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious...
a year ago
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious than you might think.
Commoncog
Putting Amazon’s PR/FAQ to Practice
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company...
over a year ago
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company context, and what was surprising and difficult about it.
Commoncog
Process Improvement is Trickier Than You Think
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because...
over a year ago
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because they're bad or lazy — but because there are system dynamics that prevent them from doing so. We take a look at what those are.
Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦)
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
10 months ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
The Rational Walk
Inflation Expectations
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers...
8 months ago
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers should pay close attention to Warren Buffett's statements and actions.
Mazdak
AI's Energy Problem: Can We Power Progress Without Wrecking the Planet? ⚡️🌎
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai...
11 months ago
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai for COP28, it's more important than ever to understand the complex relationship between AI and climate change. Why it matters: AI could become one of the biggest energy guzzlers on...
Seeking Wisdom
From Linear to Logistic – Sigmoid Curve and Log Loss
Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my...
a year ago
Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Let’s train a model to predict heart disease using sleep and exercise data....
Musings on Markets
The Difference Makers: Key Person(s) Valuation
Can one person make a difference to the value of a business? Of course, and with small businesses,...
11 months ago
Can one person make a difference to the value of a business? Of course, and with small businesses, especially those built around personal services (a doctor or plumber’s practice), it is part of the valuation process, where the key person is valued or at least priced and...
Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
a year ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
Commoncog
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
over a year ago
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
Commoncog
The Disaffected PhD Skunkworks: A Story About Process Improvement
A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service...
over a year ago
A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service at Amazon.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #189
Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty...
9 months ago
Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty hours in the Vision Pro, Fairfax Financial, Parks America, Howard Marks, Danny Myer
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
3 months ago
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
11 months ago
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Q&A Session
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual...
6 months ago
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual meeting after Charlie Munger's death.
Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
over a year ago
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 2
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts...
a year ago
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts before reading this one. When using linear and logistic regression, which involve just a single linear equation, calculating derivatives is easy since there is only one equation...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #179
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI...
11 months ago
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI colonoscopies, Advice on tipping, Alcohol and cardiovascular risks, Nicomachean ethics
Mazdak
Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀
11 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #204
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing...
5 months ago
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing down time, Return of meme stocks, The U.S. Constitution, Gouverneur Morris, Cleopatra
Mazdak
Google's Gemini Enters the AI Arena: Ready to Take on OpenAI?
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This...
11 months ago
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This powerful AI is set to shake things up, potentially rivaling big names like OpenAI and Microsoft. What's the Buzz About Gemini? Gemini comes in three flavors:
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy
Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
11 months ago
Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
Mazdak
Adobe Scraps $20 Billion Figma Deal
Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the...
11 months ago
Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the table! This dramatic pivot throws a spotlight on the tightening grip of global regulators on tech mergers, leaving investors and industry players to wonder:
Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
over a year ago
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
The Rational Walk
Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined...
7 months ago
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined ratio.
The Rational Walk
Free Articles!
All articles older than six months are now free to read.
10 months ago
All articles older than six months are now free to read.
Commoncog
Capital Allocation as an Antidote to Business Luck
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a...
a year ago
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a business outcome. Capital allocation matters because it allows you more skill, less luck, on the journey to a large outcome.
Commoncog
Understand the Shape of the Game You're Playing
What it looks like when you come up with a diagnosis for your business, a thing that is necessary...
a year ago
What it looks like when you come up with a diagnosis for your business, a thing that is necessary for strategy.
Farnam Street
Reciprocity: Getting What You Give
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics,...
over a year ago
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics, Chemistry and Biology Reciprocity teaches us why win-win relationships are the way to go, why waiters leave candies with the bill, why it’s a good idea to use the least force possible...
Moneyness
How would a cash-only central bank conduct monetary policy?
What role do changes in the supply of banknotes play in contributing to a central bank's ability to...
a year ago
What role do changes in the supply of banknotes play in contributing to a central bank's ability to carry out monetary policy? Put differently, to what degree does "printing," or creating new physical currency and issuing it into the economy, contribute to generating a central...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 3
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies...
a year ago
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies during the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s is a perfect case study.
Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
11 months ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
The Rational Walk
The Digest #194
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation,...
8 months ago
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons of history
balajis.com
The Network School
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
3 months ago
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
Commoncog
Cultural Advantage is Counter Positioning
Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be...
over a year ago
Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be counter-positioning, not process power. Why this is surprising, and why it matters.
Farnam Street
Learning Through Play
Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind...
over a year ago
Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind leads us to find new information, better understand our own capabilities, and find unexpected beauty around us. Arithmetic is one example of an area we can explore through play....
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
over a year ago
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
Moneyness
In praise of anti-money laundering thresholds
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money...
a year ago
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money laundering thresholds.
In the first story, the New York Times shows how regular folks are increasingly losing their bank accounts because their bank perceives them to be engaging in...
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
a year ago
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
8 months ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
Citation Needed
Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely...
3 months ago
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely prohibited from making its $25 million contribution to the Fairshake crypto super PAC in May 2024.
Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
a year ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
Mazdak
Finance News Roundup - Wednesday, 29th November
😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire...
11 months ago
😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and a close associate of Warren Buffett, has passed away at the age of 97. Munger was known for his wit, wisdom, and contrarian investment style.
Commoncog
Data is an Added Sense
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in...
3 months ago
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in business.
Seeking Wisdom
Hello LLMs!
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This...
a year ago
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This will often give you the insight needed to move forward. I nodded in agreement when I read the above lines from the book Maxims for Thinking Analytically. ChatGPT took the world by...
Commoncog
Focus on the Cases
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than...
over a year ago
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than synthesised business concepts.
The Rational Walk
Costco’s Director Compensation
Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a...
a year ago
Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a potential model for Berkshire Hathaway in the future.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #196
Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on...
7 months ago
Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on Disney's proxy war, Lessons from Paul Graham, Dunbar's number
FIRE v London
July ’24: New UK government
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
3 months ago
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
Farnam Street
Language: Why We Hear More Than Words
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me...
over a year ago
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me forgetting her birthday! Then why is she throwing dishes in the kitchen? Are the two things related? I wish I had a translator for my spouse. What is going on?” The answer: Extreme...
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
8 months ago
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
Citation Needed
Issue 45 – I'm the director now
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker...
11 months ago
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker decides to manifest a new job for themselves.
Farnam Street
Focus to Win
Anyone can say no to bad ideas, but only a focused person can say no to good ideas. Focus is about...
over a year ago
Anyone can say no to bad ideas, but only a focused person can say no to good ideas. Focus is about saying no. When talking about one of the biggest lessons he learned from Steve Jobs, Jonny Ive said it was focus. This sounds really simplistic, but it still shocks me how few...
Mazdak
Google and the Canadian Government Reach a Deal on Online News Act
The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three...
11 months ago
The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three weeks before the act is scheduled to come into effect. The deal will see Google continue to show Canadian news on its platforms in exchange for annual payments to Canadian news...
Musings on Markets
Fed up with Fed Talk? Fact-checking Central Banking Fairy Tales!
The big story on Wednesday, September 18, was that the Federal Reserve’s open market committee...
2 months ago
The big story on Wednesday, September 18, was that the Federal Reserve’s open market committee finally got around to “cutting rates”, and doing so by more than expected. This action, much debated and discussed during all of 2024, was greeted as "big" news, and market...
Commoncog
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
3 months ago
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
FIRE v London
Jan ’23: Mr Market defuses my tax bombshell
January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during...
a year ago
January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during the month (not to Davos, no), and enjoy myself in London despite the wintry weather. What you’re paying for in Mayfair these days Market movements in January The markets on the...
Farnam Street
A Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active...
over a year ago
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active participant, the experience can transform the way you think, and how you see the world. *** Here’s a situation familiar to many of us: We decide to take a vacation and go somewhere...
FIRE v London
Becoming an ISA $millionaire
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until...
11 months ago
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until using my full annual ISA allowance(s), which took me much longer than usual last year. This year I actually completed my ISA topups in April, within a few weeks of the start of the...
Moneyness
Stablecoins – a digital version of Swiss bearer savings books
Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and...
3 months ago
Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and open an account without showing any ID. The bank would then issue you something called a bearer savings book, otherwise known as inhabersparheften or livrets d'épargne au porteur....
Commoncog
A Most Unlikely Master of Capital Allocation
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in...
10 months ago
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in her life, then perhaps you could, too.
FIRE v London
My 20 year property returns
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But...
a year ago
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But my net worth includes an important asset class – property – that I don’t normally track, but which I have held in some form for over 20 years. So, this post takes a look at how my…...
Commoncog
Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year
A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
a year ago
A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
Moneyness
Even crypto mixing deserves a threshold
Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically...
11 months ago
Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically record and report our transactions to law enforcement. The logic behind this is that by giving up our personal data, we get more security, albeit at the cost of 1) losing our privacy,...
Commoncog
Marvel Studios’s Origin Story
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of...
11 months ago
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of superb capital expertise in action.
Mazdak
The Weight-Loss Gold Rush
A Race to Develop Blockbuster Obesity Drugs
11 months ago
A Race to Develop Blockbuster Obesity Drugs
The Rational Walk
The Sad Irons
During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill...
a year ago
During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill Country. Success was integral to his path to greater power.
Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
a year ago
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or not?
Mazdak
Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and...
a year ago
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and diversify your portfolio. However, it's important to do your research and take the necessary steps to ensure a successful transition. Here are some practical tips for entrepreneurs...
Musings on Markets
A Business Upended: Streaming disrupts the Entertainment Business!
It has been an unsettling summer for anyone with a stake in the movie, television and broadcasting...
a year ago
It has been an unsettling summer for anyone with a stake in the movie, television and broadcasting businesses. The strike by screen actors and writers which started in July is now into almost into its third month, with no end in sight, putting at risk the pipeline of movies and...
Commoncog
What’s an Operational Definition Anyway?
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most...
a year ago
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most principles in SPC, this is both simpler and more important than you might think.
FIRE v London
May ’23: Magic megatech
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
a year ago
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
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