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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 30.3% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a week ago
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a week ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019...
Calculated Risk
PCE Inflation expected to be Soft in March The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. ...
a week ago
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a week ago
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. The data released so far suggests the PCE inflation will be soft in March. The producer price index (PPI), the PPI excluding food and energy, and the PPI excluding food, energy, and...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries...
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On April 2nd, 2025, our president announced major new taxes on imports from foreign countries (“tariffs”), ranging from 10% to 49%. The stated goal is to bring manufacturing back to the United States and to “make America wealthy again”. These tariffs will not work. In fact, they...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Durable Goods Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in durable goods orders.
oftwominds-Charles...
Ultra-Processed Life Consuming more of this Ultra-Processed World is not a path to "the good life," it's a path to the...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Consuming more of this Ultra-Processed World is not a path to "the good life," it's a path to the destruction and derangement of an Ultra-Processed Life. The digital realm, finance, and junk food have something in common: they're all ultra-processed, synthetic versions of...
Moneyness
Why sanctions didn’t stop Russia's Garantex from using stablecoins Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Stablecoins, a new type of financial institution, are unique in two ways. First, they use decentralized databases like Ethereum and Tron to run their platforms. Secondly, and more important for the purposes of this article, they grant access to almost anyone, no questions...
Moneyness
If it's crypto it's not money laundering It appears to be official now. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, when illicit activity is...
a week ago
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a week ago
It appears to be official now. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, when illicit activity is routed via crypto infrastructure, then it no longer qualifies as money laundering. Earlier this week the Department of Justice's deputy attorney general Todd Blanche sent out an...
Citation Needed
Issue 80 – Aimed at benefiting the digital assets industry As the US government lays a very favorable groundwork for the crypto industry, Trump positions...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
As the US government lays a very favorable groundwork for the crypto industry, Trump positions himself for maximum personal profit
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.5% Year-over-year From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans...
4 weeks ago
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4 weeks ago
From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans International travel to the United States is expected to slide by 5 percent this year, contributing to a $64 billion shortfall for the travel industry, according to Tourism Economics. The...
Commoncog
How to Become an Asian Tycoon Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Every Asian tycoon becomes a tycoon in the exact same way. Learning to see this core pattern is half the battle.
The Diff
StubHub: Market-Making in a Maximally-Heterogeneous Asset Class Plus! Lobbying Through Products; Models; Digital Assets; Skill Levels; Risk Premia
3 weeks ago
The Diff
There's More Than One Efficient Market Paradox Plus! Reciprocal Tariffs; AI Purgatory; Payments and Credit; LinkedInFluencers; Efficient Markets
3 weeks ago
oftwominds-Charles...
POD People 2025 In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New...
4 weeks ago
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4 weeks ago
In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New Normal. In the cultural zeitgeist, the term Pod People refers to the novel and film franchise Invasion of the Body Snatchers, in which nomadic aliens reach Earth and spawn...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Archiving, Externalities, OpenAI, 2024, Abundance, Hiring, The Dollar
4 weeks ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Jobs, Nobels, AI, Magazines, Worms, Complements
3 weeks ago
oftwominds-Charles...
Why the Global Recession Will be Deeper and Longer Than Pundits Anticipate The global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
The global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two decades of hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization anticipate. While everyone focuses on conflicts between nations, few look at the problems shared by nations. Richard...
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February; Multi-Family... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.61%, unchanged from 0.61% January. Freddie's rate is up...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week include February New Home sales, the 3rd estimate of Q4 GDP,...
4 weeks ago
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4 weeks ago
The key reports scheduled for this week include February New Home sales, the 3rd estimate of Q4 GDP, February Personal Income & Outlays, and January Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, March 24th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a...
Calculated Risk
Housing March 24th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.9% Week-over-week, Up 30.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 7.0% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing seasonally. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on...
Calculated Risk
March Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 16.6 million SAAR, Up 5.9% YoY From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Long-Time-High Gain in March (pay content). ...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Long-Time-High Gain in March (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Deliveries appear to have accelerated sharply in the middle of the month, creating momentum that could cause sales to overshoot the forecast. Conversely, overall...
Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2025, including The Lessons of...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2025, including The Lessons of History, American Journey, the works of Aristophanes, Plato, Xenophon, and more.
Commoncog
The Sugar King of The East The life and times of one of the most skilled tycoons of South East Asia: Robert Kuok. This is the...
a week ago
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a week ago
The life and times of one of the most skilled tycoons of South East Asia: Robert Kuok. This is the fourth case on the rise of a tycoon in the Asian Conglomerate series.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
4 weeks ago
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4 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 223 thousand last week. Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third...
oftwominds-Charles...
After the Tariff Earthquake The fires that have been ignited are not yet visible. There's a eerie calm after an...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
The fires that have been ignited are not yet visible. There's a eerie calm after an earthquake. Those trapped in collapsed buildings are aware of the consequences, but the majority experience a silence, as if the world stopped and has yet to restart. The full consequences...
Calculated Risk
The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR:...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY, I noted: On a month-over-month basis, median prices increased 1.3% from January and are now down 6.7% from...
The Diff
The Two-Sided Uncertainty Tax Plus! Privacy and Usability; Muscle Memory; Talking One's Economic Short Book; More Preemptive Free...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Plus! Privacy and Usability; Muscle Memory; Talking One's Economic Short Book; More Preemptive Free Trade; Private and Public
Calculated Risk
Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup after February" Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup...
4 weeks ago
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4 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lennar: "Didn't see typical seasonal pickup after February" This is a short note … How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025? What will happen with house prices in...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 21,...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.0% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 March The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 March The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 March. ... 16-22 March 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 66.0% (+1.0%) emphasis...
FIRE v London
Mar ’25: Anticipating tariffs What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front...
a week ago
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a week ago
What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front over the last few weeks, seems a bit pointless. We entered March with a lot of drama about Ukraine, and some notable ‘ceasefire’ activity on the diplomatic front. We finished March...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, New Home Sales From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The average mortgage lender raised rates modestly on Monday morning--a logical move considering the weakness in the bond market over the weekend. Rates are based directly on bonds. Bond...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 676 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in February 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
The Diff
Tariffs and Currencies Plus! Interfaces; Surface Area; AI's Jobs Impact; Capacity; Capacity, Continued
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 119,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous...
4 weeks ago
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4 weeks ago
NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous adjustment, it appears GDPNow (adjusted) is slightly positive for Q1. (For more on the gold adjustment, see For GDP Forecasters, Some Gold Doesn't Glitter Our 1Q GDP tracking...
Calculated Risk
March 21st COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 weeks ago
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4 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Diff
IP Protection in the Era of Fast Copying and Watermark Removal Plus! Data and Outsourcing CoreWeave Fraud Realignment Local AI
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook I started the...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook I started the year taking Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s approach to the impact of policy: I’d wait to see what was implemented before changing my outlook. Altos Research put out an updated inventory...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Financial Kessler Effect Like orbiting space debris, every loan that has been collateralized by an illiquid asset is a...
a week ago
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a week ago
Like orbiting space debris, every loan that has been collateralized by an illiquid asset is a high-speed projectile with the potential to disable any other part of the system it impacts. Complex systems can undergo what's known as phase shifts, where the state of the system...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Thoughts on Trade in 2003 In 2003, Warren Buffett wrote an article with a proposal to address the trade deficit. It deserves...
a week ago
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a week ago
In 2003, Warren Buffett wrote an article with a proposal to address the trade deficit. It deserves more attention in the current tariff debate.
Calculated Risk
Friday: PPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Producer Price...
a week ago
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a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Producer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for...
The Diff
Why do Stocks Only go up at Night? Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil...
4 weeks ago
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4 weeks ago
Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil Companies Want?
Calculated Risk
TSA: Airline Travel up 3% YoY This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA. This data is as of March 23, 2025. Click on graph for larger image. Air travel is up about 2.6% YoY.
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 29.2% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales "Surge" to 17.8 million SAAR in March Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for March: March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for March: March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge in Preemptive Move to Potential Tariff-Based Price Increases (pay site). March sales were proof that U.S. consumers are very much paying attention to tariffs, as demand on a...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Global Trade Game: Jokers Are Wild There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome....
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome. Okay, players: jokers are wild, but with a twist: the entire deck is jokers. Since everyone at the table will have five Aces, nobody wins. Welcome to the Trade War Poker...
Musings on Markets
Anatomy of a Market Crisis: Tariffs, Markets and the Economy! I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and...
a week ago
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a week ago
I was boarding a plane for a trip to Latin America late in the evening last Wednesday (April 2), and as is my practice, I was checking the score on the Yankee game, when I read the tariff news announcement. Coming after a few days where the market seemed to have found its...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Friday. ----- Monday, March 31st ----- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in...
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 12% YoY in March: Lowest since May 2020 This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 403 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 676 thousand. The previous three months were...
Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 15% YoY This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. ...
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.6 million in February From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations held at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively....
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking has remained unchanged at 0.4% q/q...
a week ago
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a week ago
From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking has remained unchanged at 0.4% q/q saar. [Apr 11th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate] And from the...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 23, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a composite index of other data. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 25 and DOW futures are up 160 (fair value). WTI futures at $68.28 per barrel and Brent at...
Calculated Risk
Economic Tailwinds and Headwinds After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were significant economic tailwinds and that it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would do everything he said during the campaign. See: The Future is still Bright! and The Cupboard is Full.  I...
Calculated Risk
Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High A brief excerpt: From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Q1 Moody’s CRE Preliminary Trend Analysis The national multifamily market has...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 The key economic report this week is March CPI. ----- Monday, April 7th ----- No major economic...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
The key economic report this week is March CPI. ----- Monday, April 7th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 8th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March. ----- Wednesday, April 9th ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers...
Citation Needed
Issue 81 – Crypto crime is legal Trump continues to dismantle crypto enforcement while expanding his personal crypto empire
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices)....
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
The Diff
What moves the Efficient Frontier Between PE and SaaS for Improving Small Companies' Financial... Plus! Reindustrialization as a Financial Engineering Problem; How the Tariffs Happened; Meanwhile,...
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
April 4th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Diff
It Probably Takes More than Four Years to Eliminate Reserve Currency Status Plus! Elasticity; Tail Risk; What to Buy; How the Decision Got Made; US Export Pacing
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 4.1% Annual Gain in January 2025 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.0% in February; Down 3.6% YoY From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 2.0% in February Pending home sales improved 2.0% in...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 2.0% in February Pending home sales improved 2.0% in February according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with a larger decrease in the West – while the...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Growth Revised up to 2.4% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry,...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the...
The Diff
"Do Firms Need Juniors?" Might be the Wrong Question Plus! Solve for X + X; Refactoring; AI and Distribution; How Models Think; The AI Business Model
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.18% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Plague, Manufacturing, FX, Agents, Trump, Surface Area, AI
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.4% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the January Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.8% in February; Spending increased 0.4% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: -0.5% to 1% From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to 1.0% q/q saar. [Mar 28th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Mar 27th...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 30, 2025 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in February. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for...
Calculated Risk
Housing March 31st Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 30.6% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 8.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook Fannie and Freddie:...
Calculated Risk
A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices Another update ... a few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Another update ... a few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change...
Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.3% YoY in February Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through February 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.2% year-over-year in February, down from 4.4% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
The Rational Walk
Writing in Private Writing is an important tool for personal intellectual development even if you never intend to share...
6 days ago
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6 days ago
Writing is an important tool for personal intellectual development even if you never intend to share your work with others.
Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase...
Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: "Tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected"', Expect "higher... From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: Turning to monetary policy, we face a...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: Turning to monetary policy, we face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in...
Calculated Risk
March 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 weeks ago
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3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Diff
eToro: Twitch Plays the Market Plus! OpenAI; Open AI; Supply Chains and Self-Tariffing; Surface Area; Secrets
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 28,...
Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.4% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index now sits at 6.9...
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly Sideways Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70%...
Calculated Risk
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 47 States in January (3-Month Basis) From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in one state, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 92. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 35 states, decreased in nine states, and...
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT‑4.1: What You Need to Know About the New Family of AI Models OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
6 days ago
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking is up from 0.1% q/q saar to 0.4% q/q...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking is up from 0.1% q/q saar to 0.4% q/q saar. [Apr 4th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate] And from the...
oftwominds-Charles...
Trade, Tariffs, Currencies, Colonialism, the Gold Watch and Everything The present-day tariff-trade-war conflicts boil down to Neocolonial strategies to gain control of...
6 days ago
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6 days ago
The present-day tariff-trade-war conflicts boil down to Neocolonial strategies to gain control of markets for exports and resource extraction on terms that are only favorable to the Neocolonial power. The title of today's essay pays homage to the inimitable John D....
Calculated Risk
March Employment Report: 228 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in...
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in March From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent changes in U.S. trade policy represent a notable shift from previous approaches. These developments will affect multiple sectors, including freight rail,...
Commoncog
The Jobs to be Done Framework as a Method to Understand Demand How and why the Jobs to be Done Framework can help you sell more, faster, and accelerate your...
4 days ago
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 49.0% in March (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 49.0%...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 49.0% in March, down from 50.3% in February. The employment index was at 44.7%, down from 47.6% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 45.2%, down from 48.6%. Manufacturing...
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow • Home price growth is beginning to cool as modestly improved demand is running up against higher levels of inventory across most major...
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch I am going on "recession watch" for only the 4th time in the 20+ years that I've been writing this...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
I am going on "recession watch" for only the 4th time in the 20+ years that I've been writing this blog. In December 2022 I went on "recession watch", but I noted "My sense is growth will stay sluggish in 2023, but the economy will avoid recession."  And the economy did avoid...
Calculated Risk
Housing April 7th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.3% Week-over-week, Up 34.7% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
a week ago
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a week ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 10.7% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 4% or 5% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a...
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 155,000 in March From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 155,000 Jobs in...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 155,000 Jobs in March; Annual Pay was Up 4.6% “Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of...
oftwominds-Charles...
Last Gasp of the Landfill Economy It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate...
a week ago
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a week ago
It seems we're supposed to mourn the last gasp of The Landfill Economy. Perhaps we should celebrate its demise. Globalization's great gift wasn't low prices--it was the collapse of durability, transforming the global economy into a Landfill Economy of shoddy products made...
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Increased 0.7% in February From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during February 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,195.8 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised January estimate of $2,179.9 billion. The February figure...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Decreased to 50.8% in March; Employment Index Declined Sharply (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.8%, down from 53.5% last month. The...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.8%, down from 53.5% last month. The employment index decreased to 46.2%, from 53.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 50.8% March 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Services Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 224 thousand last week. Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. The...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 219,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 224,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous...
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in March; Down 0.2% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Shows Seasonal Decline in March...
a week ago
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a week ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Shows Seasonal Decline in March Despite Strong Market Demand Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in March compared to February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value...
oftwominds-Charles...
A Decade of Headwinds These headwinds will persist for the next decade or two. The stock market is rallying hard...
a week ago
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a week ago
These headwinds will persist for the next decade or two. The stock market is rallying hard after a brutal sell-off--not an uncommon occurrence. As we savor our winnings in the ship's first-class casino, it's not a bad idea to step out onto the deck and gauge the weather. ...
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit decreased to $122.7 Billion in February The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $122.7 billion in February, down $8.0 billion from $130.7 billion in January, revised. . ...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.4% Year-over-year (Easter Timing boosted YoY Occupancy) From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 29 March On the positive side of the Easter calendar...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 29 March On the positive side of the Easter calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported increases across the key performance metrics, according to CoStar’s latest data through 29 March. ... 23-29 March 2025 (percentage change from...
The Diff
Finance as a Scale-Invariant Global Computer Plus! The Market; Supply and Demand; The March Continues; ETFs; Intellectual Property
a week ago
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a week ago
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a week ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 20.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 4,...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th...
a week ago
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a week ago
The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 15th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of...
Calculated Risk
March Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for...
2 weeks ago
7
2 weeks ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 150k in March, slightly above consensus ... We estimate that the...
Calculated Risk
Comments on March Employment Report The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and...
2 weeks ago
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2 weeks ago
The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined.   The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "54% of outstanding mortgage loans are under 4%" At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. FHFA’s...
2 weeks ago
7
2 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High Freddie...
Calculated Risk
Recession Watch Metrics Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of...
a week ago
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a week ago
Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Now I am on recession watch, but still not yet predicting a...
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 7% in March From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines 7% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI),...
a week ago
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a week ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines 7% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, receded 6.9% in March to 205.6 (2000=100) from the revised February reading of 220.9. Over the month, commercial planning declined 7.8%...
The Diff
Why Volatility Fattens Traders' Fingers Plus! Ads and Data; Restocking, Destocking, and Equilibria; The Negotiations Continue; De-Risking;...
a week ago
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a week ago
Plus! Ads and Data; Restocking, Destocking, and Equilibria; The Negotiations Continue; De-Risking; Other Angles
Calculated Risk
By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again after the start of President Trump's 2nd...
a week ago
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a week ago
Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again after the start of President Trump's 2nd term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a week ago
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a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. FOMC Minutes, Meeting of March 18-19
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.6% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 5 April The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed...
a week ago
7
a week ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 5 April The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 April. ... 30 March through 5 April 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 63.8%...
The Diff
Will White-Collar Workers Experience a Blue-Collar Economic Recovery? Plus! Harvard; AI, Memory, and Moats; Grabbing Share; Concentrating Demand; When the Tide Goes Out
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 Recession Watch Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures...
a week ago
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a week ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 Recession Watch Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 200 and DOW futures are down 1,200 (fair value). WTI futures at $61.99 per barrel and Brent at $65.58 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $88, and Brent was at $93 -...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a week ago
7
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 219 thousand last week. Consumer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Tract, Brains, 9/11, Diplomacy, Credit Cards, Crashes, 2024
a week ago
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Small Business Optimism From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Worst 24 Hours For Rates So Far This Year While there...
a week ago
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a week ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Worst 24 Hours For Rates So Far This Year While there was certainly some volatility surrounding news headlines that were less than credible (specifically, that Trump was considering a 90 day pause on Tariffs), bonds maintained steady...
Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a week ago
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a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-April provides a snapshot of the current housing market. Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook. Since then,...
Calculated Risk
Trump Drops Tariffs to 10% Just minutes after Goldman Sachs put out a note forecasting a recession, Mr. Trump lowered all...
a week ago
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a week ago
Just minutes after Goldman Sachs put out a note forecasting a recession, Mr. Trump lowered all tariffs to 10% (except China). Moving to a Recession Baseline We now expect the US’s effective tariff rate to rise by at least 20pp and are forecasting a recession with a 12-month...
Calculated Risk
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 45 States in February (3-Month Basis) From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in...
a week ago
6
a week ago
From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in three states, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 84. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 38 states, decreased in six states, and...
balajis.com
The Network School Fellowship Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
2 days ago
Calculated Risk
FOMC Minutes: "Inflation was likely to be boosted this year" From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 18–19, 2025. Excerpt: With regard...
a week ago
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a week ago
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 18–19, 2025. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants judged that inflation was likely to be boosted this year by the effects of higher tariffs, although significant uncertainty surrounded...
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a week ago
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a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and...
Citation Needed
Trump’s newest grift: Building a cryptocurrency empire while destroying its regulators Inside the Trump family’s sprawling crypto empire — from memecoins to mining — and how Trump is...
3 days ago
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3 days ago
Inside the Trump family’s sprawling crypto empire — from memecoins to mining — and how Trump is using presidential power to dismantle the regulators who could stop it
Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 3.7% YoY as...
a week ago
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a week ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 3.7% YoY as of March 2025, down from 4.1% YoY in February. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 4,000 from the...
a week ago
6
a week ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised average of 223,000. emphasis added The following...
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
a week ago
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a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
Calculated Risk
April 11th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a week ago
6
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Diff
Information Economies and Institution Economies Plus! Distribution; Non-Tariff Barriers; Low-Background Text; Application Layer; Socks
6 days ago
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
a week ago
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a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in February The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
a week ago
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a week ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (down slightly unrounded from 3.5% YoY in February), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.0% (down from 3.1%), and the CPI less food...
Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Decreased 0.1% in March; Core CPI increased 0.1% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent on a...
a week ago
5
a week ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "Home Prices Continue to Cool" At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1:...
a week ago
5
a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48...
a week ago
5
a week ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48 and DOW futures are up 250 (fair value). WTI futures at $61.50 per barrel and Brent at $64.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $86, and Brent was at $93 - so WTI oil prices are...
Calculated Risk
Housing April 14th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
6 days ago
5
6 days ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 12.5% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 5% or 6% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a...
Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing Season" in April The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40,...
4 days ago
5
4 days ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40, up from 39 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing...
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Decreased 0.3% in March From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) decreased...
4 days ago
5
4 days ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.3 percent in March but increased at an annual rate of 5.5 percent in the first quarter. The March decline was led by a 5.8 percent drop in the index for utilities, as temperatures...
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 1.4% in March On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and...
4 days ago
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4 days ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.6 percent from March 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Calculated Risk
Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing...
6 days ago
4
6 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different A brief excerpt: We are in a period of significant policy uncertainty and there isn’t a good historical analog for the current period. However, for...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads From housing economist Tom Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads Obviously a major...
6 days ago
4
6 days ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads Obviously a major catalyst for the surge in MBS yields was the sharp increase in intermediate- and long-term Treasury rates. Putting additional upward pressure on MBS yields was the surge in...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 7% Last Friday was...
6 days ago
4
6 days ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 7% Last Friday was notable in that it was the first day since February 19th where the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate ended the day over 7%. Last week was also notable for ranking among the more...
The Diff
Unskilled Labor and Ambient Media Plus! AI as the Flexible Funnel; Treasuries; The Long Tail; Competition; It's Gas
5 days ago
Calculated Risk
U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2024 Eleven years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age...
5 days ago
4
5 days ago
Eleven years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group.  Those people are now in the 30 to 34 cohort. This month the Census Bureau released the population estimates for July 2024 by age, and I've updated the table from the...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
5 days ago
4
5 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Fed Chair Powell Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
5 days ago
4
5 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 1.3% increase in retail sales.  Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for...
Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: "Higher inflation and slower growth" From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the...
4 days ago
4
4 days ago
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. Those policies are still evolving, and their effects...
Calculated Risk
CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit From CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit as economists postpone pre-pandemic...
4 days ago
4
4 days ago
From CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit as economists postpone pre-pandemic recovery to 2029 Whatever hopes the travel industry had in a full recovery to 2019 levels of travel bookings this year have officially been dashed, according to one economist. "What...
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas in February: Visitor Traffic Down 11.9% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 19.5% YoY From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: February 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With the combined...
5 days ago
4
5 days ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: February 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With the combined factors of a tough comparison to last year when Super Bowl LVIII was held in the destination, a net decrease in the convention segment tied to rotation cycles, and one fewer day...
oftwominds-Charles...
This Nails It: The Doom Loop of Housing Construction Quality Add in the doom loop of an unprecedented credit-asset bubble and housing as a sector is in trouble. ...
4 days ago
3
4 days ago
Add in the doom loop of an unprecedented credit-asset bubble and housing as a sector is in trouble. Sorry for the punnish-ment, but this nails it: How Contracting Work Became a Race to the Bottom The reality of being a contractor includes labor shortages, brutal...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
3 days ago
3
3 days ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,324,000. This is 11.4 percent below the revised February estimate of 1,494,000, but is 1.9 percent above the March 2024 rate of 1,299,000. Single-family housing starts...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million...
3 days ago
3
3 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March A brief excerpt: First, from Reuters: D.R. Horton cuts 2025 revenue forecast on weak demand for homes U.S. homebuilder D.R. Horton lowered its full-year revenue...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
4 days ago
3
4 days ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 8.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 11,...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
4 days ago
3
4 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 223 thousand last week. Housing Starts for March. The consensus is for 1.410 million...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Markets Closed for Good Friday Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. US markets will...
2 days ago
3
2 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. US markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2025
Calculated Risk
Housing and Demographics Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt:...
2 days ago
3
2 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt: I’ll return to the above graph and discuss some of the implications for the next decade, but first, here is a similar graph for July 2010. The arrow points to the large cohort moving...
The Diff
Is an AI Startup a Company or a Gig? Plus! Reasoning; Coding Assistants; Human-Level Intelligence; Insider Information; The China Squeeze
3 days ago
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 215,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 days ago
3
3 days ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 31.2% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 days ago
3
3 days ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to...
2 days ago
3
2 days ago
From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to Jan and Feb core control retail sales. [Apr 17th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)....
oftwominds-Charles...
The Family Home: From Shelter to Asset to Liability The deflation of asset bubbles and higher costs are foreseeable, but the magnitude of each is...
2 days ago
3
2 days ago
The deflation of asset bubbles and higher costs are foreseeable, but the magnitude of each is unpredictable. With the rise of financialized asset bubbles as the source of our "growth," family home went from shelter to speculative asset. This transition accelerated as...
Calculated Risk
April 18th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 days ago
2
2 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Diff
Does VIX Have Fundamentals? Plus! Customer Service; Latency; Corp Dev.; Scavengers; Broken Windows
2 days ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, April...
yesterday
2
yesterday
The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, April 21st ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 22nd ----- 10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April. ----- Wednesday, April 23rdh...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Moon, Welch, Robinhood, Heterodoxy, Bots, Liquidity, Trade, Google
21 hours ago
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts at 1.324 million Annual Rate in March At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing...
19 hours ago
2
19 hours ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing and Demographics Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different 3rd Look at Local Housing...
FIRE v London
A stupid decision to sell my rental property I sold my rental property last year, after owning it over 20 years. It’s a lovely property, worth...
5 hours ago
2
5 hours ago
I sold my rental property last year, after owning it over 20 years. It’s a lovely property, worth around £1m, right in the heart of London – near the middle of the map below. I used to live in it, I travel past it regularly, I know its neighbourhood well. The Modern Flat has...
Mazdak
How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their...
a year ago
439
a year ago
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their tax liabilities. One such method, known as transfer pricing, has become increasingly prevalent in recent years, raising concerns about fairness and equity in the global tax...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate...
2 months ago
262
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest A brief excerpt: When talking about the so-called “neutral” interest rate, many financial commentators, financial analysts, and even monetary policymakers talk about...
Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 months ago
204
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
2 months ago
172
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
Commoncog
When Action Beats Prediction One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ......
a year ago
152
a year ago
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ... isn't. What a theory of expertise in entrepreneurship tells us about creating new things in business.
Citation Needed
Issue 58 – Threats to the stability and integrity of Ethereum The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's...
11 months ago
151
11 months ago
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's creditors, and Biden threatens a crypto veto.
FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
11 months ago
149
11 months ago
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024 A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
11 months ago
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1 This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
a year ago
147
a year ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
Seeking Wisdom
A great investor is a great rejector I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for...
11 months ago
146
11 months ago
I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for example — I developed a stronger understanding and appreciation for it after reading the book Modeling Life. Similarly, the investing book What I Learned About Investing from Darwin...
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
over a year ago
145
over a year ago
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
a year ago
143
a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
Citation Needed
We need to talk about digital ownership "Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually...
a year ago
Citation Needed
Become a Wikipedian in 30 minutes What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be...
a year ago
139
a year ago
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be proliferating on the web? The number one thing you can do is learn to edit, and I will walk you through how to get started in only 30 minutes.
The Rational Walk
Apple’s Dystopian iPad Video When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision...
11 months ago
139
11 months ago
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision crushing symbols of art and culture.
Seeking Wisdom
Ruturaj Gaikwad, P-value, and Bayes’ Theorem IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is...
11 months ago
138
11 months ago
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is my favorite team. Ruturaj Gaikwad, the new CSK captain for the IPL 2024 season, lost 10 out of 13 tosses: LLLLWLLLLLLWL. The probability of seeing the sequence LLLLWLLLLLLWL is...
Commoncog
The Limits of Operational Excellence An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven,...
12 months ago
137
12 months ago
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven, achieve operational excellence, and die, and others acquire Process Power and win?
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
12 months ago
136
12 months ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
Citation Needed
Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me? The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto...
11 months ago
135
11 months ago
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto criminals. Also, lawmakers take another stab at stablecoin regulation.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Equilibrium This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
a year ago
135
a year ago
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier post first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium, oscillation,...
Commoncog
The Skill of Capital What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk...
a year ago
135
a year ago
What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk through three stories, and then talk about the shape of the skill in practice.
Commoncog
Process Behaviour Charts: More Than You Need To Know The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional...
a year ago
134
a year ago
The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional variation. This is everything you need to know to use it well.
The Rational Walk
Free Articles! A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
a year ago
Seeking Wisdom
What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a...
11 months ago
132
11 months ago
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a plate full of french fries. It takes an enormous amount of energy to break bad habits. I’ve broken bad habits under two conditions: (a) it’s a do-or-die situation, or (b) you have a...
Commoncog
Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do...
a year ago
131
a year ago
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do it. This is everything you need to know to actually become data driven, from scratch, using the same first principles that Amazon, Koch, and Toyota used back in their day.
The Rational Walk
The Odyssey Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
11 months ago
130
11 months ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #197 Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
a year ago
129
a year ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
Seeking Wisdom
Make Every Day Count It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big...
a year ago
124
a year ago
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big project at work on time. I’d made the journey from the office to my home so many times, my car almost seemed to know the way by itself. My hands were on the wheel, but…
Mazdak
Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market? In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more...
a year ago
123
a year ago
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more pressing than ever. Soaring property values and rising interest rates have created a complex landscape, leaving many wondering: is homeownership still the golden ticket to building...
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
11 months ago
FIRE v London
Feeling broke My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is...
a year ago
122
a year ago
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is captured in my monthly portfolio updates, I thought it was worth recording some of my emotions while they are still fresh. Two years ago Turning the clock back, my financial...
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance) Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
9 months ago
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
11 months ago
122
11 months ago
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
a year ago
122
a year ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
The Rational Walk
The Dividend Signal Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or...
11 months ago
121
11 months ago
Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or negative development for shareholders?
FIRE v London
The richest person you know What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are...
a year ago
120
a year ago
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are among the highest earning and/or richest people in the UK. I bet however that not many of you feel that way. Let’s start with income To be in the top 1% of earnings in… Continue...
Citation Needed
Issue 60 – Raging in favor of the machine The crypto industry jumps on the Trump train.
9 months ago
Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
9 months ago
120
9 months ago
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #206 The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of...
9 months ago
120
9 months ago
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of Silicon Valley, Self-esteem and outer scorecards, MMT's founder is worried about deficits
Commoncog
Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.7% Week-over-week, Up 26.5% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always...
2 months ago
119
2 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If two weeks ago was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has...
balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
10 months ago
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
a year ago
118
a year ago
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
Citation Needed
Cryptocurrency companies have raised over $115 million to influence US elections this cycle, and... As election season kicks into high gear, we need to watch how cryptocurrency companies are...
10 months ago
The Rational Walk
Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on...
11 months ago
117
11 months ago
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on education, ethics, religion, and many other subjects.
Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
10 months ago
117
10 months ago
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
a year ago
117
a year ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
FIRE v London
June ’24: Election fever June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west...
9 months ago
116
9 months ago
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west country, the south coast and the Isle of Wight; partly overseas – I visited Ibiza for a few days of R&R. Meanwhile, the election campaigns were in full swing. Nigel Farage did his...
The Rational Walk
Dollar General: Value or Value Trap? I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some...
a year ago
115
a year ago
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some initial thoughts about the company as well as the overall retail landscape.
balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got Your assets are the government's collateral.
a year ago
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
a year ago
FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
a year ago
115
a year ago
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
a year ago
114
a year ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked...
a year ago
114
a year ago
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked spectacularly well. Will Berkshire's playbook continue to perform well in the future?
Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’ It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
over a year ago
114
over a year ago
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
Citation Needed
Privacy, human rights, and Tornado Cash I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
11 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #198 Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How...
11 months ago
113
11 months ago
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How to spend your days, AI and productivity
FIRE v London
In praise of Berkshire Hathaway I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the...
a year ago
113
a year ago
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the year 2000. I loved the story. Starting from, as the story was told back then, humble beginnings and a paper round, Warren Buffett (and Charlie – who I will stop mentioning but...
Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
10 months ago
113
10 months ago
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
FIRE v London
Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an...
a year ago
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a year ago
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an impulse while travelling back from the Coastal Folly. My main frame of reference to the cathedral being those notorious Russian nerve agent assassins citing it as their reason for...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #193 Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect...
a year ago
112
a year ago
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect on the brain, Race and cardiovascular disease, Inflation's effect on insurance pricing
Seeking Wisdom
Focus on the process, not the outcome Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket team, has two non-negotiables. As an offspinner, you must never get cut, and you must never get driven through the covers. Even when Ravichandran Ashwin takes five wickets, Raman will...
Commoncog
Learning About Moats the Hard Way How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end...
10 months ago
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10 months ago
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end of his career.
Citation Needed
Issue 57 - I take deep breath and I get real high Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC...
11 months ago
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11 months ago
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC is on a Wells notice bender.
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal: The Canary in the Coal Mine? Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence....
10 months ago
112
10 months ago
Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence. Recent development at Daily Journal raise concerns.
FIRE v London
May ’24: UK election called The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
10 months ago
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10 months ago
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...
Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US) Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
a year ago
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a year ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
a year ago
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a year ago
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal Annual Meeting Notes A reader has generously shared his notes from the Daily Journal annual meeting which took place in...
10 months ago
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10 months ago
A reader has generously shared his notes from the Daily Journal annual meeting which took place in Los Angeles on February 15, 2024.
The Rational Walk
Will Berkshire Hathaway Pay a Dividend? Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well...
a year ago
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a year ago
Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well served by Warren Buffett's reluctance to send out dividend checks.
balajis.com
The Network School We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI) Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
a year ago
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a year ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 1 This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
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a year ago
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. I love playing and watching cricket. The dominance India showed in the recently concluded World Cup is astounding. I have never seen anything like it in...
Commoncog
A Big Part of Being Data Driven is Will Not Skill What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming...
9 months ago
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9 months ago
What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming data driven in business more broadly.
FIRE v London
I’m 28, and can’t figure out how to start on FatFIRE – what would you do in my shoes? From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from...
10 months ago
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10 months ago
From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from the London School of Economics in 2017 after which I went through the hardest few years of my life mentally and ended up unemployed or in dead-end low paid jobs. I currently work...
Citation Needed
Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through...
10 months ago
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of...
a year ago
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a year ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of Anne Frank, Endurance, Crime and Punishment, and the Iliad.
Citation Needed
Follow the Crypto FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024...
9 months ago
110
9 months ago
FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024 elections in the United States.
The Rational Walk
Poor Charlie’s Almanack My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five...
a year ago
110
a year ago
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five psychological tendencies that can cause human misjudgment.
Mazdak
Choosing the Optimal Legal Structure for Your Small Business 🇨🇦 Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate...
a year ago
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a year ago
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate legal framework can feel like traversing a complex maze. This guide sheds light on the merits and drawbacks of the three primary options: sole proprietorship, partnership, and...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #192 Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS,...
a year ago
109
a year ago
Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS, The bear case for China, Chris Davis, Michael Mauboussin
The Rational Walk
Paid Subscriptions The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
a year ago
Commoncog
The Secret at the Heart of Continuous Improvement Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart...
a year ago
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a year ago
Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart that doesn't seem to get talked about.
Citation Needed
We can have a different web Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
11 months ago
109
11 months ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
The Rational Walk
The Magic of Compounding The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my...
9 months ago
109
9 months ago
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my current net worth.
Citation Needed
Issue 61 – Soft war by the enemy How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the...
9 months ago
109
9 months ago
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the crypto lobby, and some new regulatory actions.
Commoncog
The Idea Maze is a Useless Idea Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business...
7 months ago
108
7 months ago
Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business idea.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Linear Algebra This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life....
11 months ago
108
11 months ago
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my previous posts first to gain a solid understanding on how to model dynamic systems. This post focuses on how linear algebra is employed in modeling dynamic...
Bits about Money
The Bond villain compliance strategy Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out...
a year ago
108
a year ago
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out for Binance and its CEO. Spoiler: poorly.
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and...
a year ago
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a year ago
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and therefore warrant only six years of imprisonment. Prosecutors argue that 40–50 years are justified.
Mazdak
Salary vs. Dividends: Picking the Right Paycheck as a Business Owner Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner...
a year ago
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a year ago
Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner faces unique financial considerations. One critical choice arises early on: to pay yourself a salary or take dividends? Understanding the pros and cons of each path empowers you to...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
a year ago
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a year ago
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #201 Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
10 months ago
107
10 months ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
a year ago
107
a year ago
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
Citation Needed
Issue 55 – Halving a bad time The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed...
a year ago
107
a year ago
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed fraud and Uniswap got a Wells notice.
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
a year ago
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a year ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
11 months ago
106
11 months ago
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
The Rational Walk
Hesiod’s Works and Days One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it...
11 months ago
106
11 months ago
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it was 2,700 years ago.
Mazdak
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds : The Great Investment Debate For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual...
a year ago
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a year ago
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds can be a head-scratcher. Both offer diversification, professional management options, and access to a variety of asset classes. However, they differ significantly in how they...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #208 Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs...
8 months ago
106
8 months ago
Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs in 1983, Microsoft deep dive, Marks on risk, Luca Delanna on ergodicity, Guadalcanal
Commoncog
Making Sense of Deming A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of...
a year ago
106
a year ago
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of the most powerful things you'll find on the Operations side of the business expertise triad. Read this, so you don't have to read multiple books to apply his ideas.
Commoncog
Dell's Capital Expertise We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at...
a year ago
105
a year ago
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at capital allows you to make moves that aren't available to a novice business operator.
The Rational Walk
Burlington Northern Santa Fe — 2023 Results Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
a year ago
balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
8 months ago
The Rational Walk
Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023) A life well lived
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Prometheus Bound This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus...
10 months ago
104
10 months ago
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus dating back to the fifth century BC.
Commoncog
Lesley Sim on Skill Acceleration in Ultimate Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World...
a year ago
104
a year ago
Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World Championship Team in 2020, her approach to skill acceleration, and why a teaching technique designed for dogs and dolphins works just as well on humans!
Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
a year ago
balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102 Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
a year ago
balajis.com
Prompts are Tiny Programs And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
a year ago
Citation Needed
AI isn't useless. But is it worth it? AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
102
a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
Mazdak
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
a year ago
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a year ago
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
Commoncog
Colin Bryar on the practice of Amazon's Weekly Business Review Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of...
a year ago
101
a year ago
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of Amazon's secret operational weapons: the Weekly Business Review.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #180 Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting,...
a year ago
101
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting, Damodaran on key person risk, Microsoft's IPO, Howard Marks and Annie Duke on risk
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
8 months ago
Mazdak
The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large....
a year ago
101
a year ago
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large. Enter the 4% rule, a popular guideline that suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and adjust for inflation thereafter. But is it a guaranteed...
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
a year ago
101
a year ago
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
Bits about Money
The business of wallets How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
11 months ago
100
11 months ago
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
a year ago
100
a year ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
a year ago
100
a year ago
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #200 Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks,...
11 months ago
100
11 months ago
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks, Appnesia, Stress and heart disease, Steve Jobs, Flying Cars, Dunkirk, Napoleon
Citation Needed
Issue 62 – Grassroots Coinbase’s Stand With Crypto Alliance fudges the numbers, a (former) crypto industry CEO has a...
9 months ago
100
9 months ago
Coinbase’s Stand With Crypto Alliance fudges the numbers, a (former) crypto industry CEO has a meltdown, and another exchange suffers a nine-figure hack.
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Other Side of the Trade Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other...
10 months ago
100
10 months ago
Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other stocks to temporarily crash on June 3, 2024.
Citation Needed
"The Monkey Fraud": An interview with Ryder Ripps An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club...
a year ago
100
a year ago
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club trademark infringement and racism.
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out? Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
a year ago
100
a year ago
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
Citation Needed
Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely...
8 months ago
99
8 months ago
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely prohibited from making its $25 million contribution to the Fairshake crypto super PAC in May 2024.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #177 Remembering Charlie Munger
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Trust Deficit My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the...
9 months ago
98
9 months ago
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the urgent need to correct course.
Commoncog
Data is an Added Sense A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in...
8 months ago
98
8 months ago
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in business.
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2 This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
98
a year ago
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 3 This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
97
a year ago
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. The MNIST dataset is the “hello world” of machine learning, containing images of handwritten digits that are used to train machine learning models. It...
Citation Needed
25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried "The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious...
a year ago
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
a year ago
97
a year ago
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income? Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
a year ago
97
a year ago
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
Citation Needed
Issue 64 – Pointing its arsenal at our friends As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like...
8 months ago
96
8 months ago
As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like “Crypto4Harris”, others insist it is Harris who must “bend the knee”.
The Rational Walk
A Seamless Web of Deserved Trust Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
By diverse means we arrive at the same end Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
2 months ago
96
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in...
a year ago
96
a year ago
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in the game, repurchase activity, and stock based compensation.
Citation Needed
Video: The charges against Binance In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant...
a year ago
96
a year ago
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant Binance and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, I started writing up an overview of everything that had happened to the company over the past few years. I'd written separately about a...
Commoncog
Businesses as Ecosystem Organisms What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd...
7 months ago
96
7 months ago
What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd example of HEICO being the barnacle to TransDigm’s whale.
Commoncog
Tacit Expertise Extraction, Software Engineering Edition One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior...
a year ago
95
a year ago
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior software engineers'. Useful to anyone who might want to accelerate their own skills.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #195 BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
a year ago
95
a year ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
The Rational Walk
The Digest #204 Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing...
10 months ago
95
10 months ago
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing down time, Return of meme stocks, The U.S. Constitution, Gouverneur Morris, Cleopatra
Citation Needed
Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried...
a year ago
94
a year ago
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried doesn't want to go to jail for 100 years.
Commoncog
Commoncog's Next Phase Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains...
a year ago
94
a year ago
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains series free, and one more thing.
FIRE v London
July ’24: New UK government July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
8 months ago
94
8 months ago
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
Mazdak
A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the...
a year ago
94
a year ago
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the economy that remains ill: the office sector of the U.S. commercial real-estate market. ** What's the Problem?** Hybrid/remote work: What began as a two-week work-from-home...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Questions Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five...
a year ago
94
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five potential questions for the Q&A session.
Commoncog
The Hospitality Solution in Your Business A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve...
7 months ago
94
7 months ago
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve (certain) business problems with hospitality, and that it only takes a little thoughtfulness to do so.
Commoncog
The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same...
a year ago
94
a year ago
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same time? Deming — who came up with these data techniques — believe that it is possible. I'm not so sure.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
a year ago
Commoncog
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
8 months ago
Mazdak
Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its...
a year ago
94
a year ago
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its acquisition of smart TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion. This deal is far more than just about TVs; it's a strategic play by Walmart to become a major force in the booming
The Rational Walk
Biden’s Withdrawal and the Limits of Gaslighting President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the...
9 months ago
93
9 months ago
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the Democratic Party and allies in the mainstream media.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #190 Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben...
a year ago
93
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben Graham's summer on a farm, Income taxes, Interviews of Bruce Berkowitz and Howard Marks, and more...
Commoncog
One Definition of Wisdom Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
a year ago
Farnam Street
Why Write Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
over a year ago
93
over a year ago
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
Commoncog
Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a...
over a year ago
93
over a year ago
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a deliberate practice training program isn't as difficult as you might think.
Citation Needed
Issue 53 – Choose rich Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #187 Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the...
a year ago
92
a year ago
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the market, Damodaran data updates, Apple packaging, Samsung, Big Pharma
Citation Needed
Review: Chris Dixon's Read Write Own Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain...
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #191 The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel...
a year ago
92
a year ago
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel shareholders, Investing lessons from Earnest Shackleton, Google's Gemini AI goes off the rails
Mazdak
How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie: A Summary and Key Takeaways Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential...
a year ago
92
a year ago
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential self-help books ever written. First published in 1936, it has sold over 50 million copies and been translated into over 30 languages. The book is a practical guide to improving...
Commoncog
Focus Doesn't Mean Doing One Thing at a Time Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time....
over a year ago
92
over a year ago
Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time. This is what focus looks like at an organisational level, told through the story of a business turnaround and the Marine Corps approach to war.
Mazdak
2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step 2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to...
a year ago
92
a year ago
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to generate human-quality text, while chipmaker Nvidia pushed the boundaries of what's possible with graphics processing units (GPUs). But amidst the hype, there were also concerns about...
Citation Needed
Issue 63 – RobConf 2024 Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat...
8 months ago
92
8 months ago
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat with Lyn Alden about sexism in bitcoin.
Mazdak
The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured...
a year ago
92
a year ago
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured the attention of the world. ChatGPT's ability to generate human-quality text, translate languages, write different kinds of creative content, and answer questions in an informative...
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
a year ago
90
a year ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Commoncog
The Capital Cycle What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
a year ago
90
a year ago
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
Mazdak
Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful...
a year ago
90
a year ago
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful player in the industry. This deal puts an end to a years-long investigation into Binance. The deal: CZ agreed to pay $50 million in fines and is prohibited from operating or managing...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #209 Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
8 months ago
90
8 months ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
The Rational Walk
The Oresteia The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery,...
10 months ago
90
10 months ago
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery, mankind finds its way toward due process and justice.
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 2 This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for...
a year ago
90
a year ago
This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I concluded the previous post by explaining how Attention works. You can download the Excel sheet and Python code that explains how Attention from here and...
Mazdak
The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real...
a year ago
90
a year ago
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real estate in Canada. It's important to note that this strategy is generally more complex and may not be suitable for everyone. When Owning Real Estate Personally Might Be Better
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Thucydides Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between...
8 months ago
89
8 months ago
Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between 431 - 404 BC.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #186 Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment...
a year ago
89
a year ago
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment checklists, Shane Parrish interviews Tom Gayner, Novo Nordisk, Howard Marks on interest rates
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
a year ago
89
a year ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
Citation Needed
Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x" Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
a year ago
Citation Needed
Issue 66 – Pretensions to relevance FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky...
7 months ago
89
7 months ago
FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky goes to trial, and some more ill-received blockchain games suggest “GameFi” has an uncertain future.
Commoncog
What To Think When Looking at a Chart In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb...
a year ago
89
a year ago
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb question that nobody seems to talk about.
The Rational Walk
Endurance The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived...
a year ago
89
a year ago
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived shipwreck, ice floes, and constant danger.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #176 Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land,...
a year ago
89
a year ago
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land, John Oliver skewers dollar stores, Apple regrets, The Great Books Journal
Commoncog
What Rigorous Process Improvement in Education Looks Like What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
6 months ago
89
6 months ago
What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should do this in your own organisational contexts.
FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
7 months ago
88
7 months ago
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
Mazdak
The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024 The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
a year ago
Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
6 months ago
FIRE v London
Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to...
a year ago
88
a year ago
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to check out Dorset’s Chesil beach. We struck lucky with the weather and had a fine, distinctly non-London, time, over a very blustery Easter weekend. My walking shoes seem to have...
The Rational Walk
The Limits of the 25th Amendment The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe...
9 months ago
88
9 months ago
The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe limits that should be acknowledged.
The Rational Walk
The Iliad Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
a year ago
87
a year ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
Commoncog
Running a Fine Dining Restaurant in a Recession How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about...
8 months ago
87
8 months ago
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about operating through the capital cycle.
The Rational Walk
Two Sides of the Same Coin Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the...
a year ago
87
a year ago
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the longer it will take to achieve financial independence.
Mazdak
A Review and Analysis of "The Laws of Human Nature" by Robert Greene Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different...
a year ago
87
a year ago
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different approach in his 2018 book, "The Laws of Human Nature." Instead of focusing on acquiring power over others, he dives deep into the intricate workings of human psychology, unveiling...
Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
a year ago
87
a year ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
over a year ago
86
over a year ago
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
Bits about Money
Payroll providers, Power, Respect Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is...
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Improving Disclosure for Public Companies The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing...
a year ago
86
a year ago
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing three simple proposals.
Mazdak
Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and...
a year ago
86
a year ago
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and battling for the last box of Oreos. The retail giant is about to revolutionize your shopping experience with a generative AI makeover. Imagine this: You're planning a Super Bowl bash,...
The Rational Walk
Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of...
a year ago
86
a year ago
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of the annual commitments pledged in 2006.
Mazdak
AI's Energy Problem: Can We Power Progress Without Wrecking the Planet? ⚡️🌎 AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai...
a year ago
86
a year ago
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai for COP28, it's more important than ever to understand the complex relationship between AI and climate change. Why it matters: AI could become one of the biggest energy guzzlers on...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #184 Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing,...
a year ago
86
a year ago
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing, Damodaran's 2024 data update, Michael Ovitz, Live Oak, Red Bull, Capital allocation
Commoncog
The Shape of a Technological Window Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how...
over a year ago
86
over a year ago
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how he used it over the course of his career. Note: this is a follow-up to and an update for the Commoncog Case Library Beta.
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 217,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the...
3 months ago
85
3 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 201,000 to 203,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous...
Mazdak
A Brighter Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024? The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples...
a year ago
85
a year ago
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples through the housing market, sparking both excitement and cautious optimism among prospective buyers and existing homeowners alike. While the prospect of lower mortgage rates is...
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
a year ago
85
a year ago
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
Commoncog
The Dangers of Expansion A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and...
8 months ago
85
8 months ago
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and everyone really only learns this through pain.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #212 Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates,...
7 months ago
85
7 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates, Competing in Search, The American Dream, Li Lu, Deep Dive into AI, The Impact of Debt, and more ...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Q&A Session Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual...
11 months ago
85
11 months ago
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual meeting after Charlie Munger's death.
Seeking Wisdom
From Linear to Logistic – Sigmoid Curve and Log Loss Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my...
a year ago
85
a year ago
Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Let’s train a model to predict heart disease using sleep and exercise data....
balajis.com
The Men's Party Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
a year ago
Citation Needed
Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
a year ago
Commoncog
Setting the Business Expertise Series Free Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her...
a year ago
84
a year ago
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her collaborators.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #194 Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation,...
a year ago
84
a year ago
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons of history
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188 Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
a year ago
84
a year ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
Commoncog
Process Improvement is Trickier Than You Think Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because...
over a year ago
84
over a year ago
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because they're bad or lazy — but because there are system dynamics that prevent them from doing so. We take a look at what those are.
Mazdak
Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket? The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the...
a year ago
84
a year ago
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the dream of homeownership into a distant mirage for many Canadians. But before you resign yourself to renting forever, consider this: owning a home may not be the guaranteed...
Commoncog
An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two...
over a year ago
84
over a year ago
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two months in: what I learnt, what was hard, and what deliberate practice actually feels like.
Citation Needed
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
7 months ago
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
a year ago
84
a year ago
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
Mazdak
Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones...
a year ago
83
a year ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones of Canadian financial planning. Both offer distinct advantages for saving and investing, but exceeding their annual contribution limits can lead to unwanted financial consequences.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 2 This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts...
a year ago
83
a year ago
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts before reading this one. When using linear and logistic regression, which involve just a single linear equation, calculating derivatives is easy since there is only one equation...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #189 Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty...
a year ago
83
a year ago
Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty hours in the Vision Pro, Fairfax Financial, Parks America, Howard Marks, Danny Myer
Commoncog
Capital Allocation as an Antidote to Business Luck The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a...
a year ago
83
a year ago
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a business outcome. Capital allocation matters because it allows you more skill, less luck, on the journey to a large outcome.
FIRE v London
Mayday for IBKR margin lending Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No...
a year ago
83
a year ago
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No longer. If you’ve read my other posts (like this or this or this) on margin lending, and are interested in exploring further, make you read this post before you do. Why I used to like...
Citation Needed
Issue 47 – Residual garbage All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
a year ago
Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge 'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
over a year ago
83
over a year ago
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
Commoncog
The Disaffected PhD Skunkworks: A Story About Process Improvement A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service...
over a year ago
Mazdak
Google's Gemini Enters the AI Arena: Ready to Take on OpenAI? Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This...
a year ago
82
a year ago
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This powerful AI is set to shake things up, potentially rivaling big names like OpenAI and Microsoft. What's the Buzz About Gemini? Gemini comes in three flavors:
Mazdak
Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖 In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open...
a year ago
82
a year ago
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open source development has emerged, firing shots at the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. These tech giants have captured much of the AI spotlight in 2023, but the alliance believes...
Commoncog
Dancing Landscapes in Business Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the...
over a year ago
82
over a year ago
Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the wickedness of business.
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
a year ago
82
a year ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
Citation Needed
Fighting for our web A talk from XOXO
6 months ago
The Rational Walk
Buffett Continues to Avoid Long-Term Bonds Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to...
a year ago
82
a year ago
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to higher interest rates.
Mazdak
Adobe Scraps $20 Billion Figma Deal Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the...
a year ago
82
a year ago
Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the table! This dramatic pivot throws a spotlight on the tightening grip of global regulators on tech mergers, leaving investors and industry players to wonder:
The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
a year ago
81
a year ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
a year ago
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?) Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
4 months ago
81
4 months ago
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
The Rational Walk
The Theban Plays The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot...
6 months ago
81
6 months ago
The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot has captivated audiences for nearly 2,500 years.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #215 Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking...
7 months ago
81
7 months ago
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking Kamala Harris, Weaponizing political anger, Nick Sleep's letters, Howard Marks on risk
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
a year ago
81
a year ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
a year ago
81
a year ago
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
a year ago
80
a year ago
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
The Rational Walk
Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined...
a year ago
Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦) Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
a year ago
80
a year ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
Commoncog
How to Become Data Driven The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious...
over a year ago
80
over a year ago
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious than you might think.
Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
a year ago
Citation Needed
Polling: Are Democratic voters really “increasingly gravitating towards crypto”? Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How...
7 months ago
80
7 months ago
Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How does it stack up to other industry polls, which are often heavily manipulated to paint a deceptively rosy picture?
The Rational Walk
Inflation Expectations There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers...
a year ago
80
a year ago
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers should pay close attention to Warren Buffett's statements and actions.
Commoncog
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
over a year ago
80
over a year ago
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December,...
2 months ago
80
2 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and slipped in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales accelerated in all four...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #213 Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects,...
7 months ago
79
7 months ago
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects, Personal Bots, Bitcoin, AI vs. Reality, "Useless" Knowledge, Jay Bowen, Rudy Havenstein
The Rational Walk
Free Articles! All articles older than six months are now free to read.
a year ago
Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
a year ago
79
a year ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
Mazdak
2024: The Year the Economy Wins? As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a...
a year ago
79
a year ago
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a potential shift towards a more balanced and stable environment. While challenges and uncertainties remain, let's explore the key trends and strategic insights that can guide us...
Farnam Street
Language: Why We Hear More Than Words It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me...
over a year ago
79
over a year ago
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me forgetting her birthday! Then why is she throwing dishes in the kitchen? Are the two things related? I wish I had a translator for my spouse. What is going on?” The answer: Extreme...
Mazdak
Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀
a year ago
Commoncog
Cultural Advantage is Counter Positioning Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be...
over a year ago
79
over a year ago
Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be counter-positioning, not process power. Why this is surprising, and why it matters.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 3 During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies...
a year ago
78
a year ago
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies during the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s is a perfect case study.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #179 Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI...
a year ago
78
a year ago
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI colonoscopies, Advice on tipping, Alcohol and cardiovascular risks, Nicomachean ethics
The Rational Walk
The Digest #196 Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on...
a year ago
78
a year ago
Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on Disney's proxy war, Lessons from Paul Graham, Dunbar's number
Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
over a year ago
Citation Needed
Issue 67 – Bug out bitcoin Crypto resurfaces on the campaign trail and the FTX fallout continues to unfold. Also, merch!
6 months ago
Farnam Street
Reciprocity: Getting What You Give This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics,...
over a year ago
77
over a year ago
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics, Chemistry and Biology Reciprocity teaches us why win-win relationships are the way to go, why waiters leave candies with the bill, why it’s a good idea to use the least force possible...
FIRE v London
Compounding, type II Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of...
5 months ago
77
5 months ago
Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of compound annual growth rates is something I feel quite viscerally, the more so with each month that I track my portfolio. But I’ve been struck recently by a radical improvement in...
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
6 months ago
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus,...
9 months ago
77
9 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus, Herodotus, the Odyssey, and American Scripture.
Commoncog
Putting Amazon’s PR/FAQ to Practice What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company...
over a year ago
77
over a year ago
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company context, and what was surprising and difficult about it.
Citation Needed
POSSE: Reclaiming social media in a fragmented world A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still...
6 months ago
77
6 months ago
A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still maintaining a presence on third-party platforms.
Farnam Street
Learning Through Play Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind...
over a year ago
77
over a year ago
Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind leads us to find new information, better understand our own capabilities, and find unexpected beauty around us. Arithmetic is one example of an area we can explore through play....
Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
over a year ago
Commoncog
Focus on the Cases Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than...
over a year ago
76
over a year ago
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than synthesised business concepts.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #211 Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist...
8 months ago
75
8 months ago
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist investing, Perils of forecasting, Orwell's 1984, Guy Spier, Ben Thompson, Estée Lauder
Commoncog
Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
over a year ago
Commoncog
Business Reality Without Frameworks A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s...
6 months ago
75
6 months ago
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s come before.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #214 September 11, 2001, Nixon vs JFK, Apple's future, Damodaran on decline, Berkshire's book value,...
7 months ago
75
7 months ago
September 11, 2001, Nixon vs JFK, Apple's future, Damodaran on decline, Berkshire's book value, Founder mode, Chasing dividends, Caro on LBJ, Peter Lynch, Epicureanism, Mt Everest
Commoncog
Power and Asian Business The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
4 months ago
75
4 months ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Evolving Estate Plan Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new...
9 months ago
75
9 months ago
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new charitable trust run by his children.
FIRE v London
Becoming an ISA $millionaire This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until...
a year ago
74
a year ago
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until using my full annual ISA allowance(s), which took me much longer than usual last year. This year I actually completed my ISA topups in April, within a few weeks of the start of the...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #216 Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement",...
6 months ago
74
6 months ago
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement", Caro's writing process, Buffett's ground rules, Sherwin Williams, Mysterious owls
The Rational Walk
The Digest #203 American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value...
10 months ago
74
10 months ago
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value Investor's Club, Nietzsche's world view, Are wrist watches effeminate?, Seinfeld on writing
Mazdak
Google and the Canadian Government Reach a Deal on Online News Act The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three...
a year ago
74
a year ago
The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three weeks before the act is scheduled to come into effect. The deal will see Google continue to show Canadian news on its platforms in exchange for annual payments to Canadian news...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #199 Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's...
11 months ago
74
11 months ago
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, A long run perspective, the parent-therapy trap
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
over a year ago
74
over a year ago
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
a year ago
73
a year ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
a year ago
73
a year ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
The Rational Walk
The Sad Irons During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill...
a year ago
73
a year ago
During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill Country. Success was integral to his path to greater power.
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
over a year ago
73
over a year ago
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #218 Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles,...
6 months ago
73
6 months ago
Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles, Doing what you love, Human aging, Ray Ozzie on intelligent machines, Aesop's Fables
FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
4 months ago
73
4 months ago
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
FIRE v London
From ISA $millionaire to £millionaire The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put...
8 months ago
72
8 months ago
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put £20k per year into an ISA account – use it for a wide range of investing activities – and not even have to report on what happens in those accounts, let alone pay tax on them.…...
Mazdak
Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and...
a year ago
72
a year ago
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and diversify your portfolio. However, it's important to do your research and take the necessary steps to ensure a successful transition. Here are some practical tips for entrepreneurs...
Commoncog
A Most Unlikely Master of Capital Allocation If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in...
a year ago
72
a year ago
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in her life, then perhaps you could, too.
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights! Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
6 months ago
72
6 months ago
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
The Rational Walk
The Cost of Corporate Security The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that...
4 months ago
71
4 months ago
The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that justifies higher corporate spending to protect executives.
Citation Needed
Issue 68 – Opportunity agenda Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as...
6 months ago
71
6 months ago
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as another enters, and Stand With Crypto bets on the favorites.
Commoncog
How to Use Power How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect...
4 months ago
70
4 months ago
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect yourself against them? Part two of three in a series on power in business.
Mazdak
The Weight-Loss Gold Rush A Race to Develop Blockbuster Obesity Drugs
a year ago