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Citation Needed
OpenAI featured chatbot is pushing extreme surgeries to “subhuman” men OpenAI's featured chatbot recommends $200,000 in surgeries while promoting incel ideology
3 weeks ago
FIRE v London
May 2025: market springtime I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to...
2 weeks ago
13
2 weeks ago
I’ve had quite a busy May. It’s been a lovely month, featuring a wedding in the country, a trip to the Isle of Wight, my first visit to a dairy farm in 40+ years, a lovely trip to the Cotswolds, and more. If you can identify any of the locations above feel free to shout… Continue...
Musings on Markets
Sovereign Ratings, Default Risk and Markets: The Moody's Downgrade Aftermath! I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what...
3 weeks ago
12
3 weeks ago
I was on a family vacation in August 2011 when I received an email from a journalist asking me what I thought about the S&P ratings downgrade for the US. Since I stay blissfully unaware of most news stories and things related to markets when I am on the beach, I had to look up...
Citation Needed
It matters. I care. Giving up on the idea that truth matters is not just cynicism, it’s surrender.
2 weeks ago
Citation Needed
Trump to launch branded crypto trading application New crypto trading and wallet application, created in partnership with Magic Eden, invites fans of...
3 weeks ago
9
3 weeks ago
New crypto trading and wallet application, created in partnership with Magic Eden, invites fans of President Trump to buy his memecoin
Citation Needed
Issue 85 – All the President’s tokens As Trump’s web of crypto projects gets tangled up in itself, a regulator warns of “regulatory Jenga”...
3 weeks ago
9
3 weeks ago
As Trump’s web of crypto projects gets tangled up in itself, a regulator warns of “regulatory Jenga” in the crypto sector that echoes the 2008 financial crisis
Citation Needed
Issue 86 – State power sponsored by Coinbase The GENIUS Act passes the Senate after explicit threats to Democrats from the crypto lobby, and...
a week ago
9
a week ago
The GENIUS Act passes the Senate after explicit threats to Democrats from the crypto lobby, and shady crypto billionaire Justin Sun cozies up even closer to the Trump family
Commoncog
You’re Always Selling to a Situation, Not an ICP One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is...
a week ago
8
a week ago
One simple idea that falls out of the Heart of Innovation book — that you can use immediately — is this idea of selling into situations, not selling to ideal customer profiles. It’s what the pros do anyway.
Musings on Markets
The (Uncertain) Payoff from Alternative Investments: Many a slip between the cup and the lip? It is true that most investing lessons are directed at those who invest only in stocks and bonds,...
a week ago
7
a week ago
It is true that most investing lessons are directed at those who invest only in stocks and bonds, and mostly with long-only strategies. It is also true that in the process, we are ignoring vast swaths of the investment universe, from other asset classes (real estate,...
FIRE v London
Swapping a rental property for a share portfolio Having sold my London rental flat, what was I to do next? I’ve paid the £20k+ transaction fees. I...
5 days ago
4
5 days ago
Having sold my London rental flat, what was I to do next? I’ve paid the £20k+ transaction fees. I have paid off the mortgage. I set aside the amount to pay my Capital Gains Tax, a liability which needs to be settled within [60] days. I moved some of the remaining equity into...
Mazdak
Trillions Flow into AI: The New Infrastructure Arms Race 🌐 Big Tech Bets Trillions on AI Infrastructure
15 hours ago
Commoncog
The Art of the Asian Joint Venture How Robert Kuok used the joint venture to expand his business empire ... and what this tells us...
3 days ago
4
3 days ago
How Robert Kuok used the joint venture to expand his business empire ... and what this tells us about business in Southeast Asia.
Mazdak
How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their...
a year ago
446
a year ago
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their tax liabilities. One such method, known as transfer pricing, has become increasingly prevalent in recent years, raising concerns about fairness and equity in the global tax...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate...
4 months ago
272
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest A brief excerpt: When talking about the so-called “neutral” interest rate, many financial commentators, financial analysts, and even monetary policymakers talk about...
Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
5 months ago
213
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
5 months ago
182
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
Commoncog
When Action Beats Prediction One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ......
over a year ago
163
over a year ago
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ... isn't. What a theory of expertise in entrepreneurship tells us about creating new things in business.
FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
a year ago
160
a year ago
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
Citation Needed
Issue 58 – Threats to the stability and integrity of Ethereum The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's...
a year ago
158
a year ago
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's creditors, and Biden threatens a crypto veto.
Seeking Wisdom
A great investor is a great rejector I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for...
a year ago
158
a year ago
I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for example — I developed a stronger understanding and appreciation for it after reading the book Modeling Life. Similarly, the investing book What I Learned About Investing from Darwin...
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
over a year ago
157
over a year ago
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024 A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
a year ago
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1 This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
a year ago
156
a year ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
over a year ago
154
over a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
Citation Needed
Become a Wikipedian in 30 minutes What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be...
a year ago
150
a year ago
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be proliferating on the web? The number one thing you can do is learn to edit, and I will walk you through how to get started in only 30 minutes.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
a year ago
149
a year ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
Seeking Wisdom
Ruturaj Gaikwad, P-value, and Bayes’ Theorem IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is...
a year ago
148
a year ago
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is my favorite team. Ruturaj Gaikwad, the new CSK captain for the IPL 2024 season, lost 10 out of 13 tosses: LLLLWLLLLLLWL. The probability of seeing the sequence LLLLWLLLLLLWL is...
The Rational Walk
Apple’s Dystopian iPad Video When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision...
a year ago
148
a year ago
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision crushing symbols of art and culture.
Citation Needed
We need to talk about digital ownership "Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually...
a year ago
Commoncog
The Limits of Operational Excellence An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven,...
a year ago
146
a year ago
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven, achieve operational excellence, and die, and others acquire Process Power and win?
Seeking Wisdom
What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a...
a year ago
146
a year ago
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a plate full of french fries. It takes an enormous amount of energy to break bad habits. I’ve broken bad habits under two conditions: (a) it’s a do-or-die situation, or (b) you have a...
Commoncog
The Skill of Capital What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk...
a year ago
144
a year ago
What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk through three stories, and then talk about the shape of the skill in practice.
Citation Needed
Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me? The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto...
a year ago
144
a year ago
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto criminals. Also, lawmakers take another stab at stablecoin regulation.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Equilibrium This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
a year ago
144
a year ago
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier post first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium, oscillation,...
Commoncog
Process Behaviour Charts: More Than You Need To Know The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional...
over a year ago
142
over a year ago
The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional variation. This is everything you need to know to use it well.
The Rational Walk
The Odyssey Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
a year ago
140
a year ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
Commoncog
Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do...
a year ago
140
a year ago
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do it. This is everything you need to know to actually become data driven, from scratch, using the same first principles that Amazon, Koch, and Toyota used back in their day.
The Rational Walk
Free Articles! A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
a year ago
Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
12 months ago
139
12 months ago
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
Calculated Risk
PCE Inflation expected to be Soft in March The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. ...
2 months ago
136
2 months ago
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. The data released so far suggests the PCE inflation will be soft in March. The producer price index (PPI), the PPI excluding food and energy, and the PPI excluding food, energy, and...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #197 Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
a year ago
136
a year ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
FIRE v London
Feeling broke My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is...
a year ago
133
a year ago
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is captured in my monthly portfolio updates, I thought it was worth recording some of my emotions while they are still fresh. Two years ago Turning the clock back, my financial...
Seeking Wisdom
Make Every Day Count It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big...
a year ago
133
a year ago
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big project at work on time. I’d made the journey from the office to my home so many times, my car almost seemed to know the way by itself. My hands were on the wheel, but…
Mazdak
Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market? In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more...
a year ago
132
a year ago
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more pressing than ever. Soaring property values and rising interest rates have created a complex landscape, leaving many wondering: is homeownership still the golden ticket to building...
FIRE v London
The richest person you know What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are...
over a year ago
131
over a year ago
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are among the highest earning and/or richest people in the UK. I bet however that not many of you feel that way. Let’s start with income To be in the top 1% of earnings in… Continue...
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
a year ago
131
a year ago
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance) Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
12 months ago
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
a year ago
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
a year ago
130
a year ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
The Rational Walk
The Dividend Signal Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or...
a year ago
130
a year ago
Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or negative development for shareholders?
Citation Needed
Issue 60 – Raging in favor of the machine The crypto industry jumps on the Trump train.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.7% Week-over-week, Up 26.5% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always...
5 months ago
128
5 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If two weeks ago was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #206 The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of...
11 months ago
127
11 months ago
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of Silicon Valley, Self-esteem and outer scorecards, MMT's founder is worried about deficits
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
a year ago
127
a year ago
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
a year ago
FIRE v London
June ’24: Election fever June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west...
11 months ago
126
11 months ago
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west country, the south coast and the Isle of Wight; partly overseas – I visited Ibiza for a few days of R&R. Meanwhile, the election campaigns were in full swing. Nigel Farage did his...
FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
a year ago
126
a year ago
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
Commoncog
Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
a year ago
FIRE v London
In praise of Berkshire Hathaway I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the...
a year ago
126
a year ago
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the year 2000. I loved the story. Starting from, as the story was told back then, humble beginnings and a paper round, Warren Buffett (and Charlie – who I will stop mentioning but...
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
a year ago
126
a year ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
The Rational Walk
Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on...
a year ago
126
a year ago
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on education, ethics, religion, and many other subjects.
Citation Needed
Cryptocurrency companies have raised over $115 million to influence US elections this cycle, and... As election season kicks into high gear, we need to watch how cryptocurrency companies are...
a year ago
Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
a year ago
125
a year ago
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
The Diff
Do Chatbots Cannibalize Search? Or is it the Other Way Around? Plus! Crypto; Cheating; Crypto, Redux; Guidance; Ghost Apps
2 months ago
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
a year ago
balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got Your assets are the government's collateral.
a year ago
Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’ It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
over a year ago
124
over a year ago
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
The Rational Walk
Dollar General: Value or Value Trap? I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some...
a year ago
123
a year ago
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some initial thoughts about the company as well as the overall retail landscape.
Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US) Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
a year ago
123
a year ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
Seeking Wisdom
Focus on the process, not the outcome Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket...
10 months ago
123
10 months ago
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket team, has two non-negotiables. As an offspinner, you must never get cut, and you must never get driven through the covers. Even when Ravichandran Ashwin takes five wickets, Raman will...
balajis.com
The Network School We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
10 months ago
123
10 months ago
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
a year ago
123
a year ago
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
Commoncog
Learning About Moats the Hard Way How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end...
a year ago
123
a year ago
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end of his career.
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked...
a year ago
122
a year ago
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked spectacularly well. Will Berkshire's playbook continue to perform well in the future?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #198 Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How...
a year ago
122
a year ago
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How to spend your days, AI and productivity
FIRE v London
May ’24: UK election called The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
a year ago
122
a year ago
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
a year ago
122
a year ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
FIRE v London
I’m 28, and can’t figure out how to start on FatFIRE – what would you do in my shoes? From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from...
a year ago
122
a year ago
From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from the London School of Economics in 2017 after which I went through the hardest few years of my life mentally and ended up unemployed or in dead-end low paid jobs. I currently work...
FIRE v London
Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an...
a year ago
121
a year ago
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an impulse while travelling back from the Coastal Folly. My main frame of reference to the cathedral being those notorious Russian nerve agent assassins citing it as their reason for...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #193 Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect...
a year ago
121
a year ago
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect on the brain, Race and cardiovascular disease, Inflation's effect on insurance pricing
The Rational Walk
Will Berkshire Hathaway Pay a Dividend? Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well...
a year ago
121
a year ago
Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well served by Warren Buffett's reluctance to send out dividend checks.
Citation Needed
Issue 57 - I take deep breath and I get real high Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC...
a year ago
121
a year ago
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC is on a Wells notice bender.
Citation Needed
Privacy, human rights, and Tornado Cash I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
a year ago
Commoncog
The Idea Maze is a Useless Idea Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business...
10 months ago
121
10 months ago
Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business idea.
Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
a year ago
121
a year ago
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal: The Canary in the Coal Mine? Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence....
a year ago
120
a year ago
Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence. Recent development at Daily Journal raise concerns.
Mazdak
Choosing the Optimal Legal Structure for Your Small Business 🇨🇦 Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate...
a year ago
120
a year ago
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate legal framework can feel like traversing a complex maze. This guide sheds light on the merits and drawbacks of the three primary options: sole proprietorship, partnership, and...
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal Annual Meeting Notes A reader has generously shared his notes from the Daily Journal annual meeting which took place in...
a year ago
120
a year ago
A reader has generously shared his notes from the Daily Journal annual meeting which took place in Los Angeles on February 15, 2024.
Commoncog
A Big Part of Being Data Driven is Will Not Skill What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming...
11 months ago
120
11 months ago
What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming data driven in business more broadly.
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 30.3% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
2 months ago
120
2 months ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019...
Citation Needed
Follow the Crypto FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024...
11 months ago
119
11 months ago
FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024 elections in the United States.
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 1 This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
119
a year ago
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. I love playing and watching cricket. The dominance India showed in the recently concluded World Cup is astounding. I have never seen anything like it in...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
a year ago
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a year ago
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
Commoncog
The Secret at the Heart of Continuous Improvement Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart...
a year ago
119
a year ago
Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart that doesn't seem to get talked about.
The Rational Walk
The Magic of Compounding The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my...
12 months ago
118
12 months ago
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my current net worth.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of...
a year ago
118
a year ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of Anne Frank, Endurance, Crime and Punishment, and the Iliad.
Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI) Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
a year ago
117
a year ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Linear Algebra This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life....
a year ago
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a year ago
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my previous posts first to gain a solid understanding on how to model dynamic systems. This post focuses on how linear algebra is employed in modeling dynamic...
The Rational Walk
Poor Charlie’s Almanack My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five...
a year ago
117
a year ago
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five psychological tendencies that can cause human misjudgment.
The Rational Walk
Paid Subscriptions The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
a year ago
Citation Needed
Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through...
a year ago
Citation Needed
We can have a different web Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
a year ago
117
a year ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
Citation Needed
Issue 61 – Soft war by the enemy How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the...
11 months ago
117
11 months ago
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the crypto lobby, and some new regulatory actions.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #192 Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS,...
a year ago
117
a year ago
Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS, The bear case for China, Chris Davis, Michael Mauboussin
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and...
a year ago
117
a year ago
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and therefore warrant only six years of imprisonment. Prosecutors argue that 40–50 years are justified.
The Rational Walk
Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023) A life well lived
a year ago
Bits about Money
The Bond villain compliance strategy Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out...
a year ago
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a year ago
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out for Binance and its CEO. Spoiler: poorly.
Citation Needed
Issue 55 – Halving a bad time The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed...
a year ago
116
a year ago
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed fraud and Uniswap got a Wells notice.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #201 Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
a year ago
116
a year ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
Mazdak
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds : The Great Investment Debate For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual...
a year ago
116
a year ago
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds can be a head-scratcher. Both offer diversification, professional management options, and access to a variety of asset classes. However, they differ significantly in how they...
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
a year ago
115
a year ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
a year ago
114
a year ago
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
The Rational Walk
Hesiod’s Works and Days One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it...
a year ago
114
a year ago
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it was 2,700 years ago.
Commoncog
Making Sense of Deming A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of...
a year ago
114
a year ago
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of the most powerful things you'll find on the Operations side of the business expertise triad. Read this, so you don't have to read multiple books to apply his ideas.
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
a year ago
114
a year ago
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
The Rational Walk
Burlington Northern Santa Fe — 2023 Results Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #208 Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs...
11 months ago
114
11 months ago
Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs in 1983, Microsoft deep dive, Marks on risk, Luca Delanna on ergodicity, Guadalcanal
balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
11 months ago
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
11 months ago
Mazdak
Salary vs. Dividends: Picking the Right Paycheck as a Business Owner Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner...
a year ago
113
a year ago
Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner faces unique financial considerations. One critical choice arises early on: to pay yourself a salary or take dividends? Understanding the pros and cons of each path empowers you to...
Commoncog
Colin Bryar on the practice of Amazon's Weekly Business Review Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of...
a year ago
112
a year ago
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of Amazon's secret operational weapons: the Weekly Business Review.
Commoncog
Dell's Capital Expertise We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at...
a year ago
112
a year ago
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at capital allows you to make moves that aren't available to a novice business operator.
Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
a year ago
balajis.com
Prompts are Tiny Programs And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
a year ago
balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102 Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
a year ago
Commoncog
Lesley Sim on Skill Acceleration in Ultimate Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World...
over a year ago
111
over a year ago
Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World Championship Team in 2020, her approach to skill acceleration, and why a teaching technique designed for dogs and dolphins works just as well on humans!
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
111
a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
Citation Needed
AI isn't useless. But is it worth it? AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
a year ago
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
a year ago
110
a year ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
The Rational Walk
Prometheus Bound This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus...
a year ago
110
a year ago
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus dating back to the fifth century BC.
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
a year ago
109
a year ago
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
Bits about Money
The business of wallets How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
a year ago
109
a year ago
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
Mazdak
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
a year ago
109
a year ago
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
Citation Needed
"The Monkey Fraud": An interview with Ryder Ripps An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club...
a year ago
109
a year ago
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club trademark infringement and racism.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #180 Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting,...
a year ago
109
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting, Damodaran on key person risk, Microsoft's IPO, Howard Marks and Annie Duke on risk
The Rational Walk
The Other Side of the Trade Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other...
a year ago
109
a year ago
Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other stocks to temporarily crash on June 3, 2024.
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
a year ago
108
a year ago
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
Citation Needed
Issue 62 – Grassroots Coinbase’s Stand With Crypto Alliance fudges the numbers, a (former) crypto industry CEO has a...
11 months ago
108
11 months ago
Coinbase’s Stand With Crypto Alliance fudges the numbers, a (former) crypto industry CEO has a meltdown, and another exchange suffers a nine-figure hack.
Mazdak
The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large....
a year ago
108
a year ago
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large. Enter the 4% rule, a popular guideline that suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and adjust for inflation thereafter. But is it a guaranteed...
Citation Needed
Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely...
11 months ago
108
11 months ago
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely prohibited from making its $25 million contribution to the Fairshake crypto super PAC in May 2024.
Commoncog
Data is an Added Sense A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in...
10 months ago
108
10 months ago
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in business.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #200 Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks,...
a year ago
107
a year ago
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks, Appnesia, Stress and heart disease, Steve Jobs, Flying Cars, Dunkirk, Napoleon
The Rational Walk
The Trust Deficit My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the...
11 months ago
107
11 months ago
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the urgent need to correct course.
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out? Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
a year ago
107
a year ago
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #177 Remembering Charlie Munger
a year ago
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
a year ago
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 3 This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
107
a year ago
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. The MNIST dataset is the “hello world” of machine learning, containing images of handwritten digits that are used to train machine learning models. It...
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
a year ago
105
a year ago
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2 This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
105
a year ago
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
Citation Needed
Issue 64 – Pointing its arsenal at our friends As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like...
10 months ago
105
10 months ago
As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like “Crypto4Harris”, others insist it is Harris who must “bend the knee”.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in...
a year ago
104
a year ago
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in the game, repurchase activity, and stock based compensation.
Citation Needed
25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried "The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious...
a year ago
The Rational Walk
A Seamless Web of Deserved Trust Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
a year ago
FIRE v London
July ’24: New UK government July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
10 months ago
104
10 months ago
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
Citation Needed
Video: The charges against Binance In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant...
a year ago
104
a year ago
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant Binance and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, I started writing up an overview of everything that had happened to the company over the past few years. I'd written separately about a...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Questions Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five...
a year ago
104
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five potential questions for the Q&A session.
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
4 months ago
104
4 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing...
Commoncog
Businesses as Ecosystem Organisms What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd...
9 months ago
104
9 months ago
What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd example of HEICO being the barnacle to TransDigm’s whale.
Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income? Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
a year ago
103
a year ago
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
Commoncog
Tacit Expertise Extraction, Software Engineering Edition One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior...
a year ago
103
a year ago
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior software engineers'. Useful to anyone who might want to accelerate their own skills.
The Rational Walk
By diverse means we arrive at the same end Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
a year ago
Commoncog
The Hospitality Solution in Your Business A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve...
9 months ago
103
9 months ago
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve (certain) business problems with hospitality, and that it only takes a little thoughtfulness to do so.
Commoncog
The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same...
over a year ago
103
over a year ago
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same time? Deming — who came up with these data techniques — believe that it is possible. I'm not so sure.
Citation Needed
Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried...
a year ago
103
a year ago
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried doesn't want to go to jail for 100 years.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #204 Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing...
a year ago
103
a year ago
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing down time, Return of meme stocks, The U.S. Constitution, Gouverneur Morris, Cleopatra
The Rational Walk
The Digest #195 BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
a year ago
102
a year ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
Commoncog
Commoncog's Next Phase Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains...
a year ago
102
a year ago
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains series free, and one more thing.
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 2 This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for...
a year ago
102
a year ago
This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I concluded the previous post by explaining how Attention works. You can download the Excel sheet and Python code that explains how Attention from here and...
Mazdak
A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the...
a year ago
102
a year ago
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the economy that remains ill: the office sector of the U.S. commercial real-estate market. ** What's the Problem?** Hybrid/remote work: What began as a two-week work-from-home...
Commoncog
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
10 months ago
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Biden’s Withdrawal and the Limits of Gaslighting President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the...
11 months ago
101
11 months ago
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the Democratic Party and allies in the mainstream media.
Farnam Street
Why Write Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
over a year ago
101
over a year ago
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
Commoncog
The Capital Cycle What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
a year ago
101
a year ago
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
Citation Needed
Issue 53 – Choose rich Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
a year ago
Mazdak
Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its...
a year ago
101
a year ago
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its acquisition of smart TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion. This deal is far more than just about TVs; it's a strategic play by Walmart to become a major force in the booming
Mazdak
How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie: A Summary and Key Takeaways Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential...
a year ago
100
a year ago
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential self-help books ever written. First published in 1936, it has sold over 50 million copies and been translated into over 30 languages. The book is a practical guide to improving...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #190 Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben...
a year ago
100
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben Graham's summer on a farm, Income taxes, Interviews of Bruce Berkowitz and Howard Marks, and more...
Citation Needed
Review: Chris Dixon's Read Write Own Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain...
a year ago
Commoncog
One Definition of Wisdom Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
a year ago
Citation Needed
Issue 63 – RobConf 2024 Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat...
10 months ago
100
10 months ago
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat with Lyn Alden about sexism in bitcoin.
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
a year ago
100
a year ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
The Rational Walk
Thucydides Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between...
10 months ago
100
10 months ago
Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between 431 - 404 BC.
Commoncog
Focus Doesn't Mean Doing One Thing at a Time Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time....
over a year ago
100
over a year ago
Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time. This is what focus looks like at an organisational level, told through the story of a business turnaround and the Marine Corps approach to war.
Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
8 months ago
Commoncog
Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a...
over a year ago
99
over a year ago
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a deliberate practice training program isn't as difficult as you might think.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #191 The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel...
a year ago
99
a year ago
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel shareholders, Investing lessons from Earnest Shackleton, Google's Gemini AI goes off the rails
FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
9 months ago
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9 months ago
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
Mazdak
2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step 2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to...
a year ago
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a year ago
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to generate human-quality text, while chipmaker Nvidia pushed the boundaries of what's possible with graphics processing units (GPUs). But amidst the hype, there were also concerns about...
Mazdak
The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured...
a year ago
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a year ago
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured the attention of the world. ChatGPT's ability to generate human-quality text, translate languages, write different kinds of creative content, and answer questions in an informative...
Mazdak
Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket? The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the...
a year ago
99
a year ago
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the dream of homeownership into a distant mirage for many Canadians. But before you resign yourself to renting forever, consider this: owning a home may not be the guaranteed...
Citation Needed
Issue 66 – Pretensions to relevance FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky...
9 months ago
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9 months ago
FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky goes to trial, and some more ill-received blockchain games suggest “GameFi” has an uncertain future.
The Rational Walk
The Oresteia The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery,...
a year ago
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a year ago
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery, mankind finds its way toward due process and justice.
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
a year ago
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a year ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
over a year ago
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over a year ago
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #187 Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the...
a year ago
98
a year ago
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the market, Damodaran data updates, Apple packaging, Samsung, Big Pharma
Commoncog
Business with Tariffs; Business as Usual Every Asian Tycoon we’ve examined got their start in a world with tariffs. They could thrive and...
a month ago
97
a month ago
Every Asian Tycoon we’ve examined got their start in a world with tariffs. They could thrive and adapt under severe uncertainty. So can we. Here’s how to calibrate for that world.
Commoncog
What Rigorous Process Improvement in Education Looks Like What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
9 months ago
97
9 months ago
What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should do this in your own organisational contexts.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #209 Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
10 months ago
97
10 months ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
The Rational Walk
Endurance The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived...
a year ago
97
a year ago
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived shipwreck, ice floes, and constant danger.
Mazdak
Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful...
a year ago
97
a year ago
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful player in the industry. This deal puts an end to a years-long investigation into Binance. The deal: CZ agreed to pay $50 million in fines and is prohibited from operating or managing...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #186 Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment...
a year ago
97
a year ago
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment checklists, Shane Parrish interviews Tom Gayner, Novo Nordisk, Howard Marks on interest rates
oftwominds-Charles...
The Terminal Rot in Corporate America Corporate America took advantage of the Covid shortages and fiscal largesse to profiteer on a scale...
a month ago
97
a month ago
Corporate America took advantage of the Covid shortages and fiscal largesse to profiteer on a scale criminals could only dream of. One of humanity's most pernicious traits is the ease with which we habituate to conditions over time that we would have rejected out of hand if...
Citation Needed
Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x" Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
a year ago
Seeking Wisdom
From Linear to Logistic – Sigmoid Curve and Log Loss Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my...
a year ago
96
a year ago
Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Let’s train a model to predict heart disease using sleep and exercise data....
The Rational Walk
The Limits of the 25th Amendment The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe...
11 months ago
96
11 months ago
The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe limits that should be acknowledged.
Commoncog
What To Think When Looking at a Chart In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb...
over a year ago
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over a year ago
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb question that nobody seems to talk about.
Mazdak
The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real...
a year ago
96
a year ago
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real estate in Canada. It's important to note that this strategy is generally more complex and may not be suitable for everyone. When Owning Real Estate Personally Might Be Better
FIRE v London
Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to...
over a year ago
96
over a year ago
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to check out Dorset’s Chesil beach. We struck lucky with the weather and had a fine, distinctly non-London, time, over a very blustery Easter weekend. My walking shoes seem to have...
Commoncog
Running a Fine Dining Restaurant in a Recession How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about...
11 months ago
96
11 months ago
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about operating through the capital cycle.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #212 Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates,...
10 months ago
95
10 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates, Competing in Search, The American Dream, Li Lu, Deep Dive into AI, The Impact of Debt, and more ...
Mazdak
The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024 The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 217,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the...
5 months ago
95
5 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 201,000 to 203,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #176 Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land,...
a year ago
95
a year ago
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land, John Oliver skewers dollar stores, Apple regrets, The Great Books Journal
The Rational Walk
Two Sides of the Same Coin Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the...
a year ago
94
a year ago
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the longer it will take to achieve financial independence.
Commoncog
The Shape of a Technological Window Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how...
over a year ago
94
over a year ago
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how he used it over the course of his career. Note: this is a follow-up to and an update for the Commoncog Case Library Beta.
The Rational Walk
The Iliad Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
a year ago
94
a year ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
Mazdak
AI's Energy Problem: Can We Power Progress Without Wrecking the Planet? ⚡️🌎 AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai...
a year ago
94
a year ago
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai for COP28, it's more important than ever to understand the complex relationship between AI and climate change. Why it matters: AI could become one of the biggest energy guzzlers on...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Q&A Session Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual...
a year ago
94
a year ago
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual meeting after Charlie Munger's death.
Commoncog
The Dangers of Expansion A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and...
10 months ago
93
10 months ago
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and everyone really only learns this through pain.
FIRE v London
Mayday for IBKR margin lending Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No...
over a year ago
93
over a year ago
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No longer. If you’ve read my other posts (like this or this or this) on margin lending, and are interested in exploring further, make you read this post before you do. Why I used to like...
Commoncog
Process Improvement is Trickier Than You Think Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because...
over a year ago
93
over a year ago
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because they're bad or lazy — but because there are system dynamics that prevent them from doing so. We take a look at what those are.
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
a year ago
93
a year ago
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
Mazdak
Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and...
a year ago
93
a year ago
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and battling for the last box of Oreos. The retail giant is about to revolutionize your shopping experience with a generative AI makeover. Imagine this: You're planning a Super Bowl bash,...
The Rational Walk
Improving Disclosure for Public Companies The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing...
a year ago
93
a year ago
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing three simple proposals.
Commoncog
Setting the Business Expertise Series Free Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her...
over a year ago
93
over a year ago
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her collaborators.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 2 This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts...
a year ago
93
a year ago
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts before reading this one. When using linear and logistic regression, which involve just a single linear equation, calculating derivatives is easy since there is only one equation...
Farnam Street
Reciprocity: Getting What You Give This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics,...
over a year ago
93
over a year ago
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics, Chemistry and Biology Reciprocity teaches us why win-win relationships are the way to go, why waiters leave candies with the bill, why it’s a good idea to use the least force possible...
Bits about Money
Payroll providers, Power, Respect Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is...
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #184 Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing,...
a year ago
93
a year ago
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing, Damodaran's 2024 data update, Michael Ovitz, Live Oak, Red Bull, Capital allocation
Commoncog
An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two...
over a year ago
93
over a year ago
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two months in: what I learnt, what was hard, and what deliberate practice actually feels like.
Mazdak
A Review and Analysis of "The Laws of Human Nature" by Robert Greene Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different...
a year ago
93
a year ago
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different approach in his 2018 book, "The Laws of Human Nature." Instead of focusing on acquiring power over others, he dives deep into the intricate workings of human psychology, unveiling...
The Rational Walk
Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of...
a year ago
93
a year ago
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of the annual commitments pledged in 2006.
Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
a year ago
93
a year ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
a year ago
92
a year ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
Commoncog
Dancing Landscapes in Business Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the...
over a year ago
92
over a year ago
Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the wickedness of business.
Commoncog
The Disaffected PhD Skunkworks: A Story About Process Improvement A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service...
over a year ago
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?) Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
6 months ago
92
6 months ago
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
Citation Needed
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
9 months ago
Mazdak
A Brighter Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024? The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples...
a year ago
92
a year ago
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples through the housing market, sparking both excitement and cautious optimism among prospective buyers and existing homeowners alike. While the prospect of lower mortgage rates is...
balajis.com
The Men's Party Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Theban Plays The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot...
9 months ago
92
9 months ago
The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot has captivated audiences for nearly 2,500 years.
Commoncog
Capital Allocation as an Antidote to Business Luck The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a...
a year ago
91
a year ago
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a business outcome. Capital allocation matters because it allows you more skill, less luck, on the journey to a large outcome.
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
a year ago
91
a year ago
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
Mazdak
Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones...
a year ago
91
a year ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones of Canadian financial planning. Both offer distinct advantages for saving and investing, but exceeding their annual contribution limits can lead to unwanted financial consequences.
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 1.4% in March On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and...
2 months ago
91
2 months ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.6 percent from March 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December,...
5 months ago
91
5 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and slipped in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales accelerated in all four...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #194 Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation,...
a year ago
91
a year ago
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons of history
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188 Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
a year ago
91
a year ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
Commoncog
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
over a year ago
91
over a year ago
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
Citation Needed
Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
a year ago
91
a year ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge 'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
over a year ago
90
over a year ago
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
FIRE v London
Compounding, type II Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of...
8 months ago
90
8 months ago
Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of compound annual growth rates is something I feel quite viscerally, the more so with each month that I track my portfolio. But I’ve been struck recently by a radical improvement in...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #189 Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty...
a year ago
90
a year ago
Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty hours in the Vision Pro, Fairfax Financial, Parks America, Howard Marks, Danny Myer
Citation Needed
Fighting for our web A talk from XOXO
8 months ago
Farnam Street
Language: Why We Hear More Than Words It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me...
over a year ago
90
over a year ago
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me forgetting her birthday! Then why is she throwing dishes in the kitchen? Are the two things related? I wish I had a translator for my spouse. What is going on?” The answer: Extreme...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #215 Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking...
9 months ago
89
9 months ago
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking Kamala Harris, Weaponizing political anger, Nick Sleep's letters, Howard Marks on risk
Mazdak
Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖 In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open...
a year ago
89
a year ago
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open source development has emerged, firing shots at the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. These tech giants have captured much of the AI spotlight in 2023, but the alliance believes...
Citation Needed
Issue 47 – Residual garbage All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
a year ago
Mazdak
Adobe Scraps $20 Billion Figma Deal Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the...
a year ago
89
a year ago
Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the table! This dramatic pivot throws a spotlight on the tightening grip of global regulators on tech mergers, leaving investors and industry players to wonder:
Commoncog
Putting Amazon’s PR/FAQ to Practice What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company...
over a year ago
89
over a year ago
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company context, and what was surprising and difficult about it.
Farnam Street
Learning Through Play Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind...
over a year ago
89
over a year ago
Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind leads us to find new information, better understand our own capabilities, and find unexpected beauty around us. Arithmetic is one example of an area we can explore through play....
Mazdak
Google's Gemini Enters the AI Arena: Ready to Take on OpenAI? Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This...
a year ago
89
a year ago
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This powerful AI is set to shake things up, potentially rivaling big names like OpenAI and Microsoft. What's the Buzz About Gemini? Gemini comes in three flavors:
The Rational Walk
The Digest #213 Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects,...
9 months ago
89
9 months ago
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects, Personal Bots, Bitcoin, AI vs. Reality, "Useless" Knowledge, Jay Bowen, Rudy Havenstein
Citation Needed
Polling: Are Democratic voters really “increasingly gravitating towards crypto”? Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How...
10 months ago
88
10 months ago
Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How does it stack up to other industry polls, which are often heavily manipulated to paint a deceptively rosy picture?
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
a year ago
88
a year ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
The Rational Walk
Buffett Continues to Avoid Long-Term Bonds Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to...
a year ago
88
a year ago
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to higher interest rates.
Commoncog
How to Become Data Driven The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious...
over a year ago
88
over a year ago
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious than you might think.
Commoncog
Cultural Advantage is Counter Positioning Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be...
over a year ago
88
over a year ago
Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be counter-positioning, not process power. Why this is surprising, and why it matters.
The Rational Walk
Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined...
a year ago
Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
over a year ago
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 3 During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies...
a year ago
87
a year ago
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies during the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s is a perfect case study.
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights! Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
8 months ago
87
8 months ago
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
Citation Needed
Issue 67 – Bug out bitcoin Crypto resurfaces on the campaign trail and the FTX fallout continues to unfold. Also, merch!
9 months ago
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
8 months ago
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
a year ago
87
a year ago
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
a year ago
Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦) Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
a year ago
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a year ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
The Rational Walk
Inflation Expectations There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers...
a year ago
86
a year ago
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers should pay close attention to Warren Buffett's statements and actions.
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
a year ago
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a year ago
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
a year ago
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a year ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
6 months ago
85
6 months ago
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
Mazdak
2024: The Year the Economy Wins? As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a...
a year ago
85
a year ago
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a potential shift towards a more balanced and stable environment. While challenges and uncertainties remain, let's explore the key trends and strategic insights that can guide us...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #203 American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value...
a year ago
85
a year ago
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value Investor's Club, Nietzsche's world view, Are wrist watches effeminate?, Seinfeld on writing
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
over a year ago
85
over a year ago
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
Commoncog
Business Reality Without Frameworks A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s...
8 months ago
85
8 months ago
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s come before.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #179 Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI...
a year ago
85
a year ago
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI colonoscopies, Advice on tipping, Alcohol and cardiovascular risks, Nicomachean ethics
Citation Needed
POSSE: Reclaiming social media in a fragmented world A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still...
9 months ago
85
9 months ago
A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still maintaining a presence on third-party platforms.
The Rational Walk
Free Articles! All articles older than six months are now free to read.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus,...
11 months ago
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11 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus, Herodotus, the Odyssey, and American Scripture.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #196 Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on...
a year ago
85
a year ago
Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on Disney's proxy war, Lessons from Paul Graham, Dunbar's number
Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
over a year ago
Commoncog
Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
over a year ago
Commoncog
Power and Asian Business The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
6 months ago
84
6 months ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
Commoncog
Focus on the Cases Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than...
over a year ago
84
over a year ago
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than synthesised business concepts.
FIRE v London
Becoming an ISA $millionaire This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until...
a year ago
84
a year ago
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until using my full annual ISA allowance(s), which took me much longer than usual last year. This year I actually completed my ISA topups in April, within a few weeks of the start of the...
Mazdak
Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Evolving Estate Plan Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new...
12 months ago
84
12 months ago
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new charitable trust run by his children.
FIRE v London
From ISA $millionaire to £millionaire The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put...
10 months ago
84
10 months ago
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put £20k per year into an ISA account – use it for a wide range of investing activities – and not even have to report on what happens in those accounts, let alone pay tax on them.…...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #216 Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement",...
9 months ago
83
9 months ago
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement", Caro's writing process, Buffett's ground rules, Sherwin Williams, Mysterious owls
The Rational Walk
The Digest #218 Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles,...
8 months ago
83
8 months ago
Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles, Doing what you love, Human aging, Ray Ozzie on intelligent machines, Aesop's Fables
The Rational Walk
The Digest #211 Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist...
10 months ago
83
10 months ago
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist investing, Perils of forecasting, Orwell's 1984, Guy Spier, Ben Thompson, Estée Lauder
The Rational Walk
The Digest #214 September 11, 2001, Nixon vs JFK, Apple's future, Damodaran on decline, Berkshire's book value,...
9 months ago
82
9 months ago
September 11, 2001, Nixon vs JFK, Apple's future, Damodaran on decline, Berkshire's book value, Founder mode, Chasing dividends, Caro on LBJ, Peter Lynch, Epicureanism, Mt Everest
The Rational Walk
The Cost of Corporate Security The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that...
6 months ago
82
6 months ago
The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that justifies higher corporate spending to protect executives.
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
over a year ago
82
over a year ago
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
FIRE v London
Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK...
7 months ago
82
7 months ago
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #199 Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's...
a year ago
81
a year ago
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, A long run perspective, the parent-therapy trap
Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
a year ago
81
a year ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
The Rational Walk
The Sad Irons During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill...
a year ago
81
a year ago
During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill Country. Success was integral to his path to greater power.