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Calculated Risk
PCE Inflation expected to be Soft in March The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. ...
3 weeks ago
129

PCE Inflation expected to be Soft in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. The data released so far suggests the PCE inflation will be soft in March. The producer price index (PPI), the PPI excluding food and energy, and the PPI excluding food, energy, and...
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The Diff
Do Chatbots Cannibalize Search? Or is it the Other Way Around? Plus! Crypto; Cheating; Crypto, Redux; Guidance; Ghost Apps
2 weeks ago
113

Do Chatbots Cannibalize Search? Or is it the Other Way Around?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Crypto; Cheating; Crypto, Redux; Guidance; Ghost Apps
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 30.3% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
4 weeks ago
113

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 30.3% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019...
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Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 1.4% in March On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and...
3 weeks ago
85

Retail Sales Increased 1.4% in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.6 percent from March 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
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Moneyness
If it's crypto it's not money laundering It appears to be official now. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, when illicit activity is...
4 weeks ago
26

If it's crypto it's not money laundering

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
It appears to be official now. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, when illicit activity is routed via crypto infrastructure, then it no longer qualifies as money laundering. Earlier this week the Department of Justice's deputy attorney general Todd Blanche sent out an...
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Musings on Markets
Buy the Dip: The Draw and Dangers of Contrarian Investing! When markets are in free fall, there is a great deal of  advice that is meted out to investors, and...
2 weeks ago
23

Buy the Dip: The Draw and Dangers of Contrarian Investing!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
When markets are in free fall, there is a great deal of  advice that is meted out to investors, and one is to just buy the dip, i.e., buy beaten down stocks, in the hope that they will recover, or the entire market, if it is down.  "Buying the dip" falls into a broad group of...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Moon, Welch, Robinhood, Heterodoxy, Bots, Liquidity, Trade, Google
3 weeks ago
22

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Moon, Welch, Robinhood, Heterodoxy, Bots, Liquidity, Trade, Google
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FIRE v London
Mar ’25: Anticipating tariffs What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front...
4 weeks ago
21

Mar ’25: Anticipating tariffs

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
What’s in the news? Talking about the news in March, give nwhat’s been happing on the tariff front over the last few weeks, seems a bit pointless. We entered March with a lot of drama about Ukraine, and some notable ‘ceasefire’ activity on the diplomatic front. We finished March...
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Citation Needed
Trump’s newest grift: Building a cryptocurrency empire while destroying its regulators Inside the Trump family’s sprawling crypto empire — from memecoins to mining — and how Trump is...
3 weeks ago
18

Trump’s newest grift: Building a cryptocurrency empire while destroying its regulators

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Inside the Trump family’s sprawling crypto empire — from memecoins to mining — and how Trump is using presidential power to dismantle the regulators who could stop it
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The Rational Walk
Writing in Private Writing is an important tool for personal intellectual development even if you never intend to share...
3 weeks ago
18

Writing in Private

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Writing is an important tool for personal intellectual development even if you never intend to share your work with others.
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oftwominds-Charles...
Trade, Tariffs, Currencies, Colonialism, the Gold Watch and Everything The present-day tariff-trade-war conflicts boil down to Neocolonial strategies to gain control of...
3 weeks ago
18

Trade, Tariffs, Currencies, Colonialism, the Gold Watch and Everything

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The present-day tariff-trade-war conflicts boil down to Neocolonial strategies to gain control of markets for exports and resource extraction on terms that are only favorable to the Neocolonial power. The title of today's essay pays homage to the inimitable John D....
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Commoncog
The Jobs to be Done Framework as a Method to Understand Demand How and why the Jobs to be Done Framework can help you sell more, faster, and accelerate your...
3 weeks ago
17

The Jobs to be Done Framework as a Method to Understand Demand

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
How and why the Jobs to be Done Framework can help you sell more, faster, and accelerate your understanding of demand.
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Mazdak
OpenAI Launches GPT‑4.1: What You Need to Know About the New Family of AI Models OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
3 weeks ago
16

OpenAI Launches GPT‑4.1: What You Need to Know About the New Family of AI Models

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
OpenAI has officially released the GPT‑4.1 family — and it’s more than just a minor upgrade.
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Wile E. Coyote Recession So where are corporate profits going to come from as globalization, price-gouging, planned...
2 weeks ago
16

The Wile E. Coyote Recession

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
So where are corporate profits going to come from as globalization, price-gouging, planned obsolescence, shrinkflation and immiseration run out of rope? We all know there's a time lag between the moment Wile E. Coyote runs off the cliff at full speed and the moment he...
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 222,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
2 weeks ago
15

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 222,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
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Calculated Risk
U.S. Births Increased in 2024 From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2024. The NCHS...
2 weeks ago
15

U.S. Births Increased in 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2024. The NCHS reports: The provisional number of births for the United States in 2024 was 3,622,673, up 1% from 2023. The general fertility rate was 54.6 births per 1,000 females ages 15–44, an...
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balajis.com
The Network School Fellowship Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
3 weeks ago
14

The Network School Fellowship

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
2 weeks ago
14

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Existing Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were at 215 thousand last week. Durable Goods Orders for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.8%...
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking has remained unchanged at 0.4% q/q...
4 weeks ago
14

Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking has remained unchanged at 0.4% q/q saar. [Apr 11th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate] And from the...
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FIRE v London
A stupid decision to sell my rental property I sold my rental property last year, after owning it over 20 years. It’s a lovely property, worth...
2 weeks ago
14

A stupid decision to sell my rental property

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
I sold my rental property last year, after owning it over 20 years. It’s a lovely property, worth around £1m, right in the heart of London – near the middle of the map below. I used to live in it, I travel past it regularly, I know its neighbourhood well. The Modern Flat has...
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 8.1% Year-over-year due to Easter Timing From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 19 April As expected due to the Easter and Passover...
2 weeks ago
14

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 8.1% Year-over-year due to Easter Timing

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 19 April As expected due to the Easter and Passover holidays, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 19 April. ... 13-19 April 2025 (percentage change from...
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Calculated Risk
California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March;...
2 weeks ago
14

California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales,...
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oftwominds-Charles...
What's "Normal" in a Hyper-Normalized World? Now that the entire economy depends on these hyper-normalized speculative bubbles for its "growth"...
2 weeks ago
13

What's "Normal" in a Hyper-Normalized World?

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Now that the entire economy depends on these hyper-normalized speculative bubbles for its "growth" and "wealth," there is a profound fear of a future based not on artifice but on the real world. Humans are quick to habituate to current conditions, i.e. consider them normal....
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02...
2 weeks ago
13

Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY Sales in March (4.02 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 2.4% below the February 2024 sales rate. This was the 2nd...
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Receded 5.9% in March Existing-home sales descended in March,...
2 weeks ago
13

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Receded 5.9% in March Existing-home sales descended in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slid in all four major U.S. regions. Year-over-year, sales dropped in the Midwest and South, increased in the West and were...
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Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing Season" in April The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40,...
3 weeks ago
13

NAHB: "Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing Season" in April

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40, up from 39 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing...
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Commoncog
Vanguard as a Demand-Side Mystery We study the rise of Vanguard, the index fund management company, as a case study of how customer...
2 weeks ago
13

Vanguard as a Demand-Side Mystery

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
We study the rise of Vanguard, the index fund management company, as a case study of how customer demand is not always about pain.
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The Diff
Venture and Media Plus! Cluely; Big Tech Sees Like a State; Distribution; Student Loans and Demand Shocks; Rollups
2 weeks ago
13

Venture and Media

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Cluely; Big Tech Sees Like a State; Distribution; Student Loans and Demand Shocks; Rollups
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Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down...
2 weeks ago
13

Sunday Night Futures

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 20 and DOW futures are down 128 (fair value). WTI futures at $64.68 per barrel and Brent at $67.96 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $84, and Brent was at $88 - so WTI oil prices...
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Calculated Risk
AIA: "Business conditions at architecture firms soften further" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
2 weeks ago
13

AIA: "Business conditions at architecture firms soften further"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI March 2025: Business conditions at architecture firms soften further The ABI/Deltek Architecture Billings Index dipped further from February to 44.1 in March, as even more firms...
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th...
4 weeks ago
13

Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
The key reports this week are March Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, April 14th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 15th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
2 weeks ago
13

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18,...
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The Diff
Thinking-Things-Through Privilege Plus! Trade Negotiations; M&A; AI and IP; Consolidation; Sourcing
2 weeks ago
13

Thinking-Things-Through Privilege

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Trade Negotiations; M&A; AI and IP; Consolidation; Sourcing
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Calculated Risk
April Vehicle Forecast: Sales at 17.4 million SAAR, Up 8.6% YoY From WardsAuto: Pre-Tariff U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge Continues in April, Sapping Dealer...
2 weeks ago
13

April Vehicle Forecast: Sales at 17.4 million SAAR, Up 8.6% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From WardsAuto: Pre-Tariff U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge Continues in April, Sapping Dealer Inventory (pay content).  Brief excerpt: If the forecast holds firm, inventory will fall below the year-ago month for the first time in nearly three years. Less inventory could take...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Tract, Brains, 9/11, Diplomacy, Credit Cards, Crashes, 2024
4 weeks ago
12

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Tract, Brains, 9/11, Diplomacy, Credit Cards, Crashes, 2024
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, April...
3 weeks ago
12

Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, April 21st ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, April 22nd ----- 10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April. ----- Wednesday, April 23rdh...
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The Diff
Information Economies and Institution Economies Plus! Distribution; Non-Tariff Barriers; Low-Background Text; Application Layer; Socks
3 weeks ago
12

Information Economies and Institution Economies

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! Distribution; Non-Tariff Barriers; Low-Background Text; Application Layer; Socks
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Calculated Risk
TSA: Airline Travel up 1% YoY This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from...
2 weeks ago
12

TSA: Airline Travel up 1% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA. This data is as of April 16, 2025. Click on graph for larger image. Air travel is up about 1.3% YoY.
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump Back Toward 7% The latest headlines...
2 weeks ago
12

Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump Back Toward 7% The latest headlines involve heavy criticism of Fed Chair Powell on the part of The President. Without any comment on whether that criticism is justified, we can still observe that markets find it...
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Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
4 weeks ago
12

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
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The Diff
Is an AI Startup a Company or a Gig? Plus! Reasoning; Coding Assistants; Human-Level Intelligence; Insider Information; The China Squeeze
3 weeks ago
12

Is an AI Startup a Company or a Gig?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! Reasoning; Coding Assistants; Human-Level Intelligence; Insider Information; The China Squeeze
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts at 1.324 million Annual Rate in March At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing...
3 weeks ago
12

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts at 1.324 million Annual Rate in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing and Demographics Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different 3rd Look at Local Housing...
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in March, down...
2 weeks ago
12

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in March, down 4.7% from February’s preliminary pace and down 1.5% from last March’s seasonally adjusted pace. Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales...
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Calculated Risk
U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2024 Eleven years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age...
3 weeks ago
12

U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Eleven years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group.  Those people are now in the 30 to 34 cohort. This month the Census Bureau released the population estimates for July 2024 by age, and I've updated the table from the...
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate...
2 weeks ago
12

Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 724 thousand. The previous three months were...
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 31.2% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 weeks ago
12

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 31.2% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019...
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Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Economic outlook worsened considerably" Fed's Beige Book Economic activity was little changed since the previous report, but uncertainty...
2 weeks ago
12

Fed's Beige Book: "Economic outlook worsened considerably"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Fed's Beige Book Economic activity was little changed since the previous report, but uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across reports. Just five Districts saw slight growth, three Districts noted activity was relatively unchanged, and the remaining four...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Family Home: From Shelter to Asset to Liability The deflation of asset bubbles and higher costs are foreseeable, but the magnitude of each is...
3 weeks ago
12

The Family Home: From Shelter to Asset to Liability

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The deflation of asset bubbles and higher costs are foreseeable, but the magnitude of each is unpredictable. With the rise of financialized asset bubbles as the source of our "growth," family home went from shelter to speculative asset. This transition accelerated as...
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Calculated Risk
NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q1 pre-Tariffs Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened...
2 weeks ago
12

NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q1 pre-Tariffs

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q1 pre-Tariffs From the NMHC: Apartment Market Sees Tighter Conditions, Rebounding Deal Flow and Improved Debt Financing in First Quarter Changes in U.S. trade policy over the...
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Calculated Risk
Housing April 21st Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
2 weeks ago
11

Housing April 21st Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 15.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 6% or 7% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a...
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Calculated Risk
LA Ports: March Inbound Traffic Up YoY, Outbound Down Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
2 weeks ago
11

LA Ports: March Inbound Traffic Up YoY, Outbound Down

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
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Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.36% in March From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.36% in March The...
2 weeks ago
11

MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.36% in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.36% in March The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.38% of servicers’...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: New Home Sales, Architecture Billings Index, Beige Book Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
2 weeks ago
11

Wednesday: New Home Sales, Architecture Billings Index, Beige Book

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 680 thousand SAAR, up from 676 thousand in February. Architecture Billings Index for...
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Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)...
2 weeks ago
11

New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 724 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in March 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 724,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S....
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The Diff
Will White-Collar Workers Experience a Blue-Collar Economic Recovery? Plus! Harvard; AI, Memory, and Moats; Grabbing Share; Concentrating Demand; When the Tide Goes Out
4 weeks ago
10

Will White-Collar Workers Experience a Blue-Collar Economic Recovery?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Plus! Harvard; AI, Memory, and Moats; Grabbing Share; Concentrating Demand; When the Tide Goes Out
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Calculated Risk
Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing...
3 weeks ago
10

Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different A brief excerpt: We are in a period of significant policy uncertainty and there isn’t a good historical analog for the current period. However, for...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Markets Closed for Good Friday Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. US markets will...
3 weeks ago
10

Friday: Markets Closed for Good Friday

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. US markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2025
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Calculated Risk
Goldman: "When Will Growth Slow, and When Will We Know?" Goldman Sachs economists put out a note this morning: When Will Growth Slow, and When Will We...
2 weeks ago
10

Goldman: "When Will Growth Slow, and When Will We Know?"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Goldman Sachs economists put out a note this morning: When Will Growth Slow, and When Will We Know? Most of the sequential inflation increases in the last trade war took place within 2-3 months of the tariffs’ implementation, and we expect spending growth to slow shortly after...
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Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A...
3 weeks ago
10

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to...
3 weeks ago
10

Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to Jan and Feb core control retail sales. [Apr 17th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)....
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Calculated Risk
Las Vegas in February: Visitor Traffic Down 11.9% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 19.5% YoY From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: February 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With the combined...
3 weeks ago
10

Las Vegas in February: Visitor Traffic Down 11.9% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 19.5% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: February 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With the combined factors of a tough comparison to last year when Super Bowl LVIII was held in the destination, a net decrease in the convention segment tied to rotation cycles, and one fewer day...
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The Diff
Unskilled Labor and Ambient Media Plus! AI as the Flexible Funnel; Treasuries; The Long Tail; Competition; It's Gas
3 weeks ago
10

Unskilled Labor and Ambient Media

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! AI as the Flexible Funnel; Treasuries; The Long Tail; Competition; It's Gas
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The Diff
Does VIX Have Fundamentals? Plus! Customer Service; Latency; Corp Dev.; Scavengers; Broken Windows
3 weeks ago
10

Does VIX Have Fundamentals?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! Customer Service; Latency; Corp Dev.; Scavengers; Broken Windows
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oftwominds-Charles...
This Nails It: The Doom Loop of Housing Construction Quality Add in the doom loop of an unprecedented credit-asset bubble and housing as a sector is in trouble. ...
3 weeks ago
10

This Nails It: The Doom Loop of Housing Construction Quality

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Add in the doom loop of an unprecedented credit-asset bubble and housing as a sector is in trouble. Sorry for the punnish-ment, but this nails it: How Contracting Work Became a Race to the Bottom The reality of being a contractor includes labor shortages, brutal...
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 215,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 weeks ago
9

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 215,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
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Calculated Risk
April 11th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 weeks ago
9

April 11th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
3 weeks ago
9

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,324,000. This is 11.4 percent below the revised February estimate of 1,494,000, but is 1.9 percent above the March 2024 rate of 1,299,000. Single-family housing starts...
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Calculated Risk
Housing April 14th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
3 weeks ago
9

Housing April 14th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 12.5% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 5% or 6% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a...
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Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Decreased 0.3% in March From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) decreased...
3 weeks ago
9

Industrial Production Decreased 0.3% in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.3 percent in March but increased at an annual rate of 5.5 percent in the first quarter. The March decline was led by a 5.8 percent drop in the index for utilities, as temperatures...
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads From housing economist Tom Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads Obviously a major...
3 weeks ago
9

Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads Obviously a major catalyst for the surge in MBS yields was the sharp increase in intermediate- and long-term Treasury rates. Putting additional upward pressure on MBS yields was the surge in...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
3 weeks ago
9

Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 223 thousand last week. Housing Starts for March. The consensus is for 1.410 million...
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million...
3 weeks ago
9

Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March A brief excerpt: First, from Reuters: D.R. Horton cuts 2025 revenue forecast on weak demand for homes U.S. homebuilder D.R. Horton lowered its full-year revenue...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Fed Chair Powell Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 weeks ago
9

Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Fed Chair Powell

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 1.3% increase in retail sales.  Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for...
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Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: "Higher inflation and slower growth" From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the...
3 weeks ago
9

Fed Chair Powell: "Higher inflation and slower growth"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. Those policies are still evolving, and their effects...
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Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48...
3 weeks ago
8

Sunday Night Futures

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48 and DOW futures are up 250 (fair value). WTI futures at $61.50 per barrel and Brent at $64.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $86, and Brent was at $93 - so WTI oil prices are...
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 7% Last Friday was...
3 weeks ago
8

Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 7% Last Friday was notable in that it was the first day since February 19th where the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate ended the day over 7%. Last week was also notable for ranking among the more...
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Calculated Risk
CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit From CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit as economists postpone pre-pandemic...
3 weeks ago
8

CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit as economists postpone pre-pandemic recovery to 2029 Whatever hopes the travel industry had in a full recovery to 2019 levels of travel bookings this year have officially been dashed, according to one economist. "What...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "Home Prices Continue to Cool" At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1:...
4 weeks ago
8

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "Home Prices Continue to Cool"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 weeks ago
8

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 8.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 11,...
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Calculated Risk
April 18th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 weeks ago
8

April 18th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Calculated Risk
Housing and Demographics Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt:...
3 weeks ago
7

Housing and Demographics

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt: I’ll return to the above graph and discuss some of the implications for the next decade, but first, here is a similar graph for July 2010. The arrow points to the large cohort moving...
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The Diff
Why do Venture Funds Target a Particular Ownership Level? Plus! The Path of Deployment; The Long Tail; Non-News; Data; Models
3 days ago
4

Why do Venture Funds Target a Particular Ownership Level?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
Plus! The Path of Deployment; The Long Tail; Non-News; Data; Models
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 228,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the...
3 days ago
4

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 228,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 241,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 226,000. emphasis added The...
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The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Final Brushstrokes Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final...
6 days ago
4

Warren Buffett’s Final Brushstrokes

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final brushstrokes on his canvas as Chairman.
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oftwominds-Charles...
Tariffs Are Not Enough The tariff sledgehammer has a role, but it's a limited one. There's an inherent tension in...
3 days ago
4

Tariffs Are Not Enough

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
The tariff sledgehammer has a role, but it's a limited one. There's an inherent tension in State-Corporate Capitalism. Proponents of the free market hold that any state Industrial Policy will fail because the State cannot pick the winners and losers as effectively as The...
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The Diff
Peak Berkshire (In a Good Way) Plus! Diff Jobs; Decoupling; Who Trains the Model-Trainers; Cash Cycles; AI and ARR; Gating
6 days ago
4

Peak Berkshire (In a Good Way)

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Decoupling; Who Trains the Model-Trainers; Cash Cycles; AI and ARR; Gating
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Musings on Markets
The Greed & Fear Tango: The Markets in April 2025! I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the...
a week ago
4

The Greed & Fear Tango: The Markets in April 2025!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than $9 trillion in market cap for global equities in the next two days. The month was off to a bad start, and tariffs remained the...
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Mazdak
OpenAI is not becoming a for-profit company after all. In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of...
6 days ago
4

OpenAI is not becoming a for-profit company after all.

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of its nonprofit entity, abandoning earlier plans to restructure as a for-profit company.
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Citation Needed
Issue 82 – E-moluments As Celsius victims detail their devastation even under the weak crypto regulations of the past, the...
2 weeks ago
3

Issue 82 – E-moluments

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
As Celsius victims detail their devastation even under the weak crypto regulations of the past, the Trump administration continues to dismantle those same rules while he pumps his personal memecoin with promises of private access
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.8% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 May The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
3 days ago
3

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.8% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 May The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 May. ... 27 April through 3 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 65.8%...
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Calculated Risk
"Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal" From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal Mortgage...
3 days ago
3

"Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal Mortgage rates moved back up to the higher levels seen earlier this week after the official announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. ... In the bigger picture, today's...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Terminal Rot in Corporate America Corporate America took advantage of the Covid shortages and fiscal largesse to profiteer on a scale...
6 days ago
3

The Terminal Rot in Corporate America

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Corporate America took advantage of the Covid shortages and fiscal largesse to profiteer on a scale criminals could only dream of. One of humanity's most pernicious traits is the ease with which we habituate to conditions over time that we would have rejected out of hand if...
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Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in April From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with...
2 days ago
3

AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in April

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent shifts in U.S. policies on trade and immigration have introduced volatility in financial markets and heightened uncertainty for firms. The ultimate outcomes...
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Commoncog
Business with Tariffs; Business as Usual Every Asian Tycoon we’ve examined got their start in a world with tariffs. They could thrive and...
a week ago
3

Business with Tariffs; Business as Usual

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Every Asian Tycoon we’ve examined got their start in a world with tariffs. They could thrive and adapt under severe uncertainty. So can we. Here’s how to calibrate for that world.
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Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
2 days ago
3

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-May provides a snapshot of the current housing market. reported that there were “more than 1 million homes...
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Most Actively "For Sale" Inventory since 2019 What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 days ago
2

Realtor.com Reports Most Actively "For Sale" Inventory since 2019

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019...
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Diamond Anniversary Warren Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway sixty years ago. It is possible that major...
a week ago
2

Berkshire Hathaway’s Diamond Anniversary

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Warren Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway sixty years ago. It is possible that major announcements will be made at the annual meeting.
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Citation Needed
Meet Trump’s memecoin dinner guests Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises...
4 days ago
2

Meet Trump’s memecoin dinner guests

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
Trump's crypto-for-access dinner triggers broad ethics alarms, and 73% non-US attendance raises fresh concerns over foreign influence
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Margin Call, Math, BNPL, AI and the Environment, Bonds, Favors, Tariffs, College
a week ago
2

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Margin Call, Math, BNPL, AI and the Environment, Bonds, Favors, Tariffs, College
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of May 11, 2025 The key reports this week are April CPI, Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, May 12th...
19 hours ago
2

Schedule for Week of May 11, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

19 hours ago
The key reports this week are April CPI, Retail Sales and Housing Starts. ----- Monday, May 12th ----- 2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for April. ----- Tuesday, May 13th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for...
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The Diff
Expect More Politically Inscrutable Assassinations Plus! Coasian Bargains; Movies; Currency; OpenAI; Tariffs
5 days ago
2

Expect More Politically Inscrutable Assassinations

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Plus! Coasian Bargains; Movies; Currency; OpenAI; Tariffs
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oftwominds-Charles...
It Was 20 Years Ago Today I Started this Blog: What Surprises Me I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that...
5 days ago
2

It Was 20 Years Ago Today I Started this Blog: What Surprises Me

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that I've maintained them. It was 20 years ago today--well, actually, yesterday--that I launched this blog into the swirling rapids of the Web. As we know, time flies when you're...
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oftwominds-Charles...
25 Years of Higher Interest Rates Ahead? Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk. As a result of...
a week ago
2

25 Years of Higher Interest Rates Ahead?

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk. As a result of recency bias, where we assume the recent past is a permanent state of affairs, many believe near-zero interest rates are "normal." They aren't. As the chart of 10-year US Treasury...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Potential Winners and Losers in Reshoring Supply Chains Until values, priorities and incentives change, "the lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock...
a week ago
2

The Potential Winners and Losers in Reshoring Supply Chains

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Until values, priorities and incentives change, "the lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock and on back order, with no estimate of a future delivery date." The ultimate winners and losers in reshoring supply chains to North America have yet to be determined, and...
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Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ending our dependence on SWIFT It's time to stop staring into the headlights and respond to the fact that Canada is being eyed as a...
a week ago
2

Trump-proofing Canada means ending our dependence on SWIFT

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
It's time to stop staring into the headlights and respond to the fact that Canada is being eyed as a choice morsel by a much larger predator: our former ally the United States of America. In President Trump's very own words, he wants to use "economic force" to join Canada and the...
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The Diff
Who Else But Google? Plus! Tariff Plays; Good Trades; Capital Structure; Moderation; Debt and the Dollar
2 days ago
2

Who Else But Google?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
Plus! Tariff Plays; Good Trades; Capital Structure; Moderation; Debt and the Dollar
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Data, Invisible Software, The Post, AI, Cheating, Control, Star Wars
15 hours ago
2

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

15 hours ago
Data, Invisible Software, The Post, AI, Cheating, Control, Star Wars
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Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 1% in April From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases 1% in April The Dodge Momentum Index...
4 days ago
2

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 1% in April

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases 1% in April The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 0.9% in April to 205.1 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised March reading of 203.1. Over the month, commercial planning grew 3.3%...
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Calculated Risk
May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 days ago
2

May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Current State of the Housing Market At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1:...
13 hours ago
2

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Current State of the Housing Market

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

13 hours ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April Asking Rents Mostly...
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The Diff
Storing Up Untainted Data Plus! Niches; Creator Economy; AI and Filters; Trade Wars; Peak Gaming?
a week ago
1

Storing Up Untainted Data

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Niches; Creator Economy; AI and Filters; Trade Wars; Peak Gaming?
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
4 days ago
1

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 223 thousand, down from 241 thousand last week.
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Calculated Risk
Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 2% Plenty of data next week!  Note that the Blue Chip consensus is wide - and currently around 1%. The...
2 days ago
1

Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 2%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
Plenty of data next week!  Note that the Blue Chip consensus is wide - and currently around 1%. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent on May 8, up from 2.2 percent on May 6. After this...
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The Diff
When Step One is to Light Money on Fire and Measure How Fast it Burns Plus! Groupchats and Norms; Venture; Made in America; Real Estate Elasticity; Lagging Investments
a week ago
1

When Step One is to Light Money on Fire and Measure How Fast it Burns

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Groupchats and Norms; Venture; Made in America; Real Estate Elasticity; Lagging Investments
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Calculated Risk
TSA: Airline Travel Unchanged YoY Anecdotally, I've heard that airlines ticket prices are falling. That suggests less travel. Also,...
5 days ago
1

TSA: Airline Travel Unchanged YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Anecdotally, I've heard that airlines ticket prices are falling. That suggests less travel. Also, the Real ID restrictions go in place tomorrow, and that might impact domestic airline travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA. This data is as of May 5, 2025. ...
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Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
5 days ago
1

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.3% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index ticked up to 7...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Winners and Losers in 21st Century America Statistical games can be played to mask the realities of our neofeudal economy, but "narrative...
a week ago
1

The Winners and Losers in 21st Century America

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Statistical games can be played to mask the realities of our neofeudal economy, but "narrative control" can't obscure the facts or the banquet of consequences that these realities have set. Not everyone in America gained ground as a result of the rampant...
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The Diff
Pathologically High-Margin Businesses Plus! Change My View; Capital Structure; Artificial Sycophancy; Elasticity; Internalizing...
a week ago
1

Pathologically High-Margin Businesses

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Change My View; Capital Structure; Artificial Sycophancy; Elasticity; Internalizing Externalities
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Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
4 days ago
1

FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher...
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Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in April; Up 4.9% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in April Wholesale...
4 days ago
1

Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in April; Up 4.9% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in April Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were much higher in April compared to March. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) increased to 208.2, an...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
4 days ago
1

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 11.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 2, 2025. The...
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Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $140.5 Billion in March The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
5 days ago
1

Trade Deficit increased to $140.5 Billion in March

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $140.5 billion in March, up $17.3 billion from $123.2 billion in February, revised. ...
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Trade Balance From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged to Start New...
6 days ago
1

Tuesday: Trade Balance

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged to Start New Week Mortgage rates faced a slight headwind on Monday as economic data caused weakness in the bond market. This would typically result in higher mortgage rates, but in today's case, the...
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Calculated Risk
Recession Watch Metrics Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of...
6 days ago
1

Recession Watch Metrics

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. In early April, I went on recession watch, but I'm still not yet...
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Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief...
6 days ago
1

ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow • Improved inventory levels are providing more options and a softer price dynamic for homeowners shopping this spring There is much...
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Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increased to 51.6% in April (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 51.6%, up from 50.8% last month. The...
6 days ago
1

ISM® Services Index Increased to 51.6% in April

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 51.6%, up from 50.8% last month. The employment index increased to 49.0%, from 46.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 51.6% April 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
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Calculated Risk
Housing May 4th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 32.9% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up...
6 days ago
1

Housing May 4th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 32.9% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 19.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 10% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger...
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Calculated Risk
Monday: ISM Services Weekend: Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a...
a week ago
1

Monday: ISM Services

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, down from 50.8. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 12 and DOW futures are down 80 (fair value). WTI futures at $58.29 per barrel and Brent at...
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.0% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 26 April The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed...
a week ago
1

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.0% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 26 April The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 26 April. ... 20-26 April 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 65.1% (-1.0%) emphasis...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger...
a week ago
1

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year Fannie and Freddie: Single Family...
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the March trade balance. ----- Monday, May 5th...
a week ago
1

Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the March trade balance. ----- Monday, May 5th ----- 10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, down from 50.8. ----- Tuesday, May 6th ----- 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for March from the...
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Calculated Risk
May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a week ago
1

May 2nd COVID Update: COVID Deaths Continue to Decline

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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The Diff
Should Congress be Allowed to Trade? Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better...
a week ago
1

Should Congress be Allowed to Trade?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Norms Trading; Point-of-Sale; Trade Trench Warfare; AI and Ads; Bluffing Your Way to Better Management
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Movies, Scams, Decentralization, Reading, AI, Offline, Trade
2 weeks ago
1

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Movies, Scams, Decentralization, Reading, AI, Offline, Trade
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The Diff
You Can't Measure AI Market Share Because it Lives at too Many Layers Plus! Moderation; Unavoidable Timing; Sad AIs; Friendshoring
2 weeks ago
1

You Can't Measure AI Market Share Because it Lives at too Many Layers

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Moderation; Unavoidable Timing; Sad AIs; Friendshoring
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Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April A...
4 days ago
1

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April A brief excerpt: This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in April. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states,...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
5 days ago
1

Wednesday: FOMC Meeting

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to to the Fed funds rate is expected at this meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC...
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Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at...
a week ago
1

FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also be on hold at the June meeting, with the next rate cut in July, and one or two more rate cuts later...
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Mazdak
How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their...
a year ago
442

How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their tax liabilities. One such method, known as transfer pricing, has become increasingly prevalent in recent years, raising concerns about fairness and equity in the global tax...
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate...
2 months ago
265

Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest A brief excerpt: When talking about the so-called “neutral” interest rate, many financial commentators, financial analysts, and even monetary policymakers talk about...
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Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 months ago
206

January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
3 months ago
176

Friday: Existing Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
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Commoncog
When Action Beats Prediction One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ......
a year ago
155

When Action Beats Prediction

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ... isn't. What a theory of expertise in entrepreneurship tells us about creating new things in business.
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FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
a year ago
153

April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
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Citation Needed
Issue 58 – Threats to the stability and integrity of Ethereum The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's...
11 months ago
153

Issue 58 – Threats to the stability and integrity of Ethereum

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's creditors, and Biden threatens a crypto veto.
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Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024 A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
11 months ago
151

Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
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Seeking Wisdom
A great investor is a great rejector I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for...
12 months ago
150

A great investor is a great rejector

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

12 months ago
I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for example — I developed a stronger understanding and appreciation for it after reading the book Modeling Life. Similarly, the investing book What I Learned About Investing from Darwin...
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Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1 This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
a year ago
150

Attention is all you need – Part 1

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
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Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
over a year ago
149

The Winner’s Edge

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
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Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
over a year ago
147

Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
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Citation Needed
Become a Wikipedian in 30 minutes What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be...
a year ago
142

Become a Wikipedian in 30 minutes

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be proliferating on the web? The number one thing you can do is learn to edit, and I will walk you through how to get started in only 30 minutes.
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Citation Needed
We need to talk about digital ownership "Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually...
a year ago
142

We need to talk about digital ownership

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually want.
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Seeking Wisdom
Ruturaj Gaikwad, P-value, and Bayes’ Theorem IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is...
12 months ago
142

Ruturaj Gaikwad, P-value, and Bayes’ Theorem

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

12 months ago
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is my favorite team. Ruturaj Gaikwad, the new CSK captain for the IPL 2024 season, lost 10 out of 13 tosses: LLLLWLLLLLLWL. The probability of seeing the sequence LLLLWLLLLLLWL is...
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The Rational Walk
Apple’s Dystopian iPad Video When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision...
a year ago
142

Apple’s Dystopian iPad Video

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision crushing symbols of art and culture.
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Commoncog
The Limits of Operational Excellence An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven,...
a year ago
140

The Limits of Operational Excellence

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven, achieve operational excellence, and die, and others acquire Process Power and win?
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Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
a year ago
140

Modeling Life: Oscillation

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
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Commoncog
The Skill of Capital What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk...
a year ago
138

The Skill of Capital

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk through three stories, and then talk about the shape of the skill in practice.
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Citation Needed
Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me? The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto...
a year ago
138

Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me?

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto criminals. Also, lawmakers take another stab at stablecoin regulation.
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Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Equilibrium This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
a year ago
138

Modeling Life: Equilibrium

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier post first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium, oscillation,...
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Seeking Wisdom
What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a...
11 months ago
137

What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a plate full of french fries. It takes an enormous amount of energy to break bad habits. I’ve broken bad habits under two conditions: (a) it’s a do-or-die situation, or (b) you have a...
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Commoncog
Process Behaviour Charts: More Than You Need To Know The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional...
over a year ago
137

Process Behaviour Charts: More Than You Need To Know

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional variation. This is everything you need to know to use it well.
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The Rational Walk
Free Articles! A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
a year ago
134

Free Articles!

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
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Commoncog
Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do...
a year ago
134

Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do it. This is everything you need to know to actually become data driven, from scratch, using the same first principles that Amazon, Koch, and Toyota used back in their day.
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The Rational Walk
The Odyssey Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
a year ago
134

The Odyssey

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #197 Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
a year ago
131

The Digest #197

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
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FIRE v London
Feeling broke My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is...
a year ago
127

Feeling broke

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is captured in my monthly portfolio updates, I thought it was worth recording some of my emotions while they are still fresh. Two years ago Turning the clock back, my financial...
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Seeking Wisdom
Make Every Day Count It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big...
a year ago
126

Make Every Day Count

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big project at work on time. I’d made the journey from the office to my home so many times, my car almost seemed to know the way by itself. My hands were on the wheel, but…
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Bits about Money
Working title (insurance) Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
10 months ago
126

Working title (insurance)

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
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Mazdak
Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market? In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more...
a year ago
126

Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more pressing than ever. Soaring property values and rising interest rates have created a complex landscape, leaving many wondering: is homeownership still the golden ticket to building...
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Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
10 months ago
126

The Amazon Weekly Business Review

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
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FIRE v London
The richest person you know What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are...
a year ago
125

The richest person you know

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are among the highest earning and/or richest people in the UK. I bet however that not many of you feel that way. Let’s start with income To be in the top 1% of earnings in… Continue...
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balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
a year ago
125

Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
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Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
a year ago
125

Stay the course

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
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Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
11 months ago
124

Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
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The Rational Walk
The Dividend Signal Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or...
a year ago
124

The Dividend Signal

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or negative development for shareholders?
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Citation Needed
Issue 60 – Raging in favor of the machine The crypto industry jumps on the Trump train.
10 months ago
123

Issue 60 – Raging in favor of the machine

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
The crypto industry jumps on the Trump train.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #206 The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of...
10 months ago
122

The Digest #206

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of Silicon Valley, Self-esteem and outer scorecards, MMT's founder is worried about deficits
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Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.7% Week-over-week, Up 26.5% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always...
3 months ago
122

Housing Jan 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.7% Week-over-week, Up 26.5% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If two weeks ago was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has...
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balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
11 months ago
122

California Is Not A Democracy

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
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Commoncog
Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
a year ago
122

Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
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Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
a year ago
121

Financial systems take a holiday

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
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Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
11 months ago
121

Understanding the Stock Market Cycle

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
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The Rational Walk
Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on...
11 months ago
121

Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on education, ethics, religion, and many other subjects.
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FIRE v London
June ’24: Election fever June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west...
10 months ago
120

June ’24: Election fever

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west country, the south coast and the Isle of Wight; partly overseas – I visited Ibiza for a few days of R&R. Meanwhile, the election campaigns were in full swing. Nigel Farage did his...
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Citation Needed
Cryptocurrency companies have raised over $115 million to influence US elections this cycle, and... As election season kicks into high gear, we need to watch how cryptocurrency companies are...
11 months ago
120

Cryptocurrency companies have raised over $115 million to influence US elections this cycle, and they’re just getting started

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
As election season kicks into high gear, we need to watch how cryptocurrency companies are influencing US politics.
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Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
a year ago
119

Introducing Xmrit

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
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FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
a year ago
119

Mar ’24: A towering influence

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
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The Rational Walk
Dollar General: Value or Value Trap? I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some...
a year ago
119

Dollar General: Value or Value Trap?

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some initial thoughts about the company as well as the overall retail landscape.
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Bits about Money
The business of check cashing Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
a year ago
118

The business of check cashing

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
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balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got Your assets are the government's collateral.
a year ago
118

All It Takes Is All You Got

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Your assets are the government's collateral.
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Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
a year ago
117

Issue 54 – Cases continue

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
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The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked...
a year ago
117

The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked spectacularly well. Will Berkshire's playbook continue to perform well in the future?
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Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’ It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
over a year ago
117

Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
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FIRE v London
In praise of Berkshire Hathaway I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the...
a year ago
117

In praise of Berkshire Hathaway

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the year 2000. I loved the story. Starting from, as the story was told back then, humble beginnings and a paper round, Warren Buffett (and Charlie – who I will stop mentioning but...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #198 Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How...
12 months ago
117

The Digest #198

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

12 months ago
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How to spend your days, AI and productivity
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Seeking Wisdom
Focus on the process, not the outcome Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket...
9 months ago
117

Focus on the process, not the outcome

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket team, has two non-negotiables. As an offspinner, you must never get cut, and you must never get driven through the covers. Even when Ravichandran Ashwin takes five wickets, Raman will...
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FIRE v London
Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an...
a year ago
116

Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an impulse while travelling back from the Coastal Folly. My main frame of reference to the cathedral being those notorious Russian nerve agent assassins citing it as their reason for...
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Commoncog
Learning About Moats the Hard Way How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end...
11 months ago
116

Learning About Moats the Hard Way

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end of his career.
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Citation Needed
Privacy, human rights, and Tornado Cash I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
11 months ago
116

Privacy, human rights, and Tornado Cash

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #193 Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect...
a year ago
116

The Digest #193

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect on the brain, Race and cardiovascular disease, Inflation's effect on insurance pricing
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FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
a year ago
116

Feb ’24: Envyidia

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
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Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
11 months ago
116

Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
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FIRE v London
May ’24: UK election called The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
11 months ago
116

May ’24: UK election called

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...
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Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US) Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
a year ago
116

A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US)

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
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The Rational Walk
Will Berkshire Hathaway Pay a Dividend? Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well...
a year ago
115

Will Berkshire Hathaway Pay a Dividend?

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well served by Warren Buffett's reluctance to send out dividend checks.
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Citation Needed
Issue 57 - I take deep breath and I get real high Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC...
a year ago
115

Issue 57 - I take deep breath and I get real high

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC is on a Wells notice bender.
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FIRE v London
I’m 28, and can’t figure out how to start on FatFIRE – what would you do in my shoes? From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from...
10 months ago
115

I’m 28, and can’t figure out how to start on FatFIRE – what would you do in my shoes?

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from the London School of Economics in 2017 after which I went through the hardest few years of my life mentally and ended up unemployed or in dead-end low paid jobs. I currently work...
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The Rational Walk
Daily Journal: The Canary in the Coal Mine? Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence....
11 months ago
115

Daily Journal: The Canary in the Coal Mine?

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence. Recent development at Daily Journal raise concerns.
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The Rational Walk
Daily Journal Annual Meeting Notes A reader has generously shared his notes from the Daily Journal annual meeting which took place in...
10 months ago
114

Daily Journal Annual Meeting Notes

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
A reader has generously shared his notes from the Daily Journal annual meeting which took place in Los Angeles on February 15, 2024.
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balajis.com
The Network School We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
8 months ago
114

The Network School

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
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Commoncog
A Big Part of Being Data Driven is Will Not Skill What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming...
10 months ago
114

A Big Part of Being Data Driven is Will Not Skill

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming data driven in business more broadly.
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Mazdak
Choosing the Optimal Legal Structure for Your Small Business 🇨🇦 Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate...
a year ago
114

Choosing the Optimal Legal Structure for Your Small Business 🇨🇦

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate legal framework can feel like traversing a complex maze. This guide sheds light on the merits and drawbacks of the three primary options: sole proprietorship, partnership, and...
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Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 1 This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
114

Embeddings – Part 1

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. I love playing and watching cricket. The dominance India showed in the recently concluded World Cup is astounding. I have never seen anything like it in...
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Commoncog
The Idea Maze is a Useless Idea Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business...
8 months ago
113

The Idea Maze is a Useless Idea

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business idea.
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The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of...
a year ago
113

What I’ve Been Reading

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of Anne Frank, Endurance, Crime and Punishment, and the Iliad.
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Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI) Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
a year ago
113

Understanding Employment Insurance (EI)

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
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Citation Needed
Follow the Crypto FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024...
10 months ago
113

Follow the Crypto

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024 elections in the United States.
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Citation Needed
Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through...
11 months ago
113

Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through the House.
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The Rational Walk
Poor Charlie’s Almanack My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five...
a year ago
112

Poor Charlie’s Almanack

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five psychological tendencies that can cause human misjudgment.
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The Rational Walk
The Magic of Compounding The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my...
10 months ago
112

The Magic of Compounding

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my current net worth.
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Commoncog
The Secret at the Heart of Continuous Improvement Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart...
a year ago
112

The Secret at the Heart of Continuous Improvement

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart that doesn't seem to get talked about.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #192 Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS,...
a year ago
112

The Digest #192

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS, The bear case for China, Chris Davis, Michael Mauboussin
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Citation Needed
We can have a different web Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
a year ago
112

We can have a different web

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
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Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Linear Algebra This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life....
a year ago
112

Modeling Life: Linear Algebra

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my previous posts first to gain a solid understanding on how to model dynamic systems. This post focuses on how linear algebra is employed in modeling dynamic...
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The Rational Walk
Paid Subscriptions The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
a year ago
112

Paid Subscriptions

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
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Citation Needed
Issue 61 – Soft war by the enemy How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the...
10 months ago
111

Issue 61 – Soft war by the enemy

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the crypto lobby, and some new regulatory actions.
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Bits about Money
The Bond villain compliance strategy Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out...
a year ago
111

The Bond villain compliance strategy

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out for Binance and its CEO. Spoiler: poorly.
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Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and...
a year ago
111

Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and therefore warrant only six years of imprisonment. Prosecutors argue that 40–50 years are justified.
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Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
a year ago
111

Modeling Life: Foundations

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #201 Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
11 months ago
110

The Digest #201

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
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Citation Needed
Issue 55 – Halving a bad time The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed...
a year ago
110

Issue 55 – Halving a bad time

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed fraud and Uniswap got a Wells notice.
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Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
a year ago
110

Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
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Mazdak
Salary vs. Dividends: Picking the Right Paycheck as a Business Owner Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner...
a year ago
109

Salary vs. Dividends: Picking the Right Paycheck as a Business Owner

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner faces unique financial considerations. One critical choice arises early on: to pay yourself a salary or take dividends? Understanding the pros and cons of each path empowers you to...
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Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
a year ago
109

Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
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The Rational Walk
Hesiod’s Works and Days One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it...
12 months ago
109

Hesiod’s Works and Days

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

12 months ago
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it was 2,700 years ago.
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Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
11 months ago
109

Guys what is wrong with ACATS

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
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Mazdak
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds : The Great Investment Debate For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual...
a year ago
109

ETFs vs. Mutual Funds : The Great Investment Debate

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds can be a head-scratcher. Both offer diversification, professional management options, and access to a variety of asset classes. However, they differ significantly in how they...
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Commoncog
Making Sense of Deming A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of...
a year ago
109

Making Sense of Deming

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of the most powerful things you'll find on the Operations side of the business expertise triad. Read this, so you don't have to read multiple books to apply his ideas.
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The Rational Walk
Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023) A life well lived
a year ago
108

Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023)

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
A life well lived
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The Rational Walk
Burlington Northern Santa Fe — 2023 Results Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
a year ago
108

Burlington Northern Santa Fe — 2023 Results

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #208 Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs...
9 months ago
108

The Digest #208

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs in 1983, Microsoft deep dive, Marks on risk, Luca Delanna on ergodicity, Guadalcanal
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Commoncog
Dell's Capital Expertise We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at...
a year ago
108

Dell's Capital Expertise

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at capital allows you to make moves that aren't available to a novice business operator.
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balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
9 months ago
108

America's $175 Trillion Problem

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
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Commoncog
Lesley Sim on Skill Acceleration in Ultimate Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World...
a year ago
106

Lesley Sim on Skill Acceleration in Ultimate

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World Championship Team in 2020, her approach to skill acceleration, and why a teaching technique designed for dogs and dolphins works just as well on humans!
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The Rational Walk
Prometheus Bound This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus...
11 months ago
106

Prometheus Bound

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus dating back to the fifth century BC.
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Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
a year ago
106

The 2023 Commoncog Recap

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
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balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102 Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
a year ago
106

The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
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Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
9 months ago
105

Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
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balajis.com
Prompts are Tiny Programs And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
a year ago
105

Prompts are Tiny Programs

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
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The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
105

Finding Your Life’s Work

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
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Citation Needed
AI isn't useless. But is it worth it? AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
a year ago
105

AI isn't useless. But is it worth it?

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
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Commoncog
Colin Bryar on the practice of Amazon's Weekly Business Review Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of...
a year ago
105

Colin Bryar on the practice of Amazon's Weekly Business Review

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of Amazon's secret operational weapons: the Weekly Business Review.
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FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
a year ago
105

Dec ’23 – 2023 in review

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #180 Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting,...
a year ago
104

The Digest #180

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting, Damodaran on key person risk, Microsoft's IPO, Howard Marks and Annie Duke on risk
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Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
a year ago
104

Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
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Bits about Money
The business of wallets How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
a year ago
104

The business of wallets

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
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Mazdak
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
a year ago
103

2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #200 Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks,...
11 months ago
103

The Digest #200

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks, Appnesia, Stress and heart disease, Steve Jobs, Flying Cars, Dunkirk, Napoleon
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Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
a year ago
103

Seeing like a Bank

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
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The Rational Walk
The Other Side of the Trade Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other...
11 months ago
103

The Other Side of the Trade

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other stocks to temporarily crash on June 3, 2024.
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Mazdak
The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large....
a year ago
103

The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large. Enter the 4% rule, a popular guideline that suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and adjust for inflation thereafter. But is it a guaranteed...
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Citation Needed
"The Monkey Fraud": An interview with Ryder Ripps An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club...
a year ago
103

"The Monkey Fraud": An interview with Ryder Ripps

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club trademark infringement and racism.
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Citation Needed
Issue 62 – Grassroots Coinbase’s Stand With Crypto Alliance fudges the numbers, a (former) crypto industry CEO has a...
9 months ago
102

Issue 62 – Grassroots

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Coinbase’s Stand With Crypto Alliance fudges the numbers, a (former) crypto industry CEO has a meltdown, and another exchange suffers a nine-figure hack.
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Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
a year ago
102

The Long Shadow of Checks

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
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The Rational Walk
The Trust Deficit My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the...
10 months ago
102

The Trust Deficit

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the urgent need to correct course.
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Commoncog
Data is an Added Sense A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in...
9 months ago
102

Data is an Added Sense

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in business.
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Citation Needed
Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely...
9 months ago
102

Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely prohibited from making its $25 million contribution to the Fairshake crypto super PAC in May 2024.
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Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out? Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
a year ago
102

Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #177 Remembering Charlie Munger
a year ago
101

The Digest #177

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Remembering Charlie Munger
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Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 3 This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
101

Neural Networks – Part 3

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. The MNIST dataset is the “hello world” of machine learning, containing images of handwritten digits that are used to train machine learning models. It...
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Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2 This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
101

Embeddings – Part 2

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
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FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
a year ago
100

Nov ’23 revalues the future

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in...
a year ago
100

Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in the game, repurchase activity, and stock based compensation.
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Citation Needed
25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried "The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious...
a year ago
99

25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious crime."
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The Rational Walk
A Seamless Web of Deserved Trust Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
a year ago
99

A Seamless Web of Deserved Trust

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
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Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income? Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
a year ago
99

What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
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Citation Needed
Issue 64 – Pointing its arsenal at our friends As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like...
8 months ago
99

Issue 64 – Pointing its arsenal at our friends

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like “Crypto4Harris”, others insist it is Harris who must “bend the knee”.
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The Rational Walk
By diverse means we arrive at the same end Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
a year ago
99

By diverse means we arrive at the same end

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
3 months ago
99

Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing...
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Questions Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five...
a year ago
98

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Questions

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five potential questions for the Q&A session.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #204 Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing...
10 months ago
98

The Digest #204

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing down time, Return of meme stocks, The U.S. Constitution, Gouverneur Morris, Cleopatra
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Commoncog
Businesses as Ecosystem Organisms What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd...
7 months ago
98

Businesses as Ecosystem Organisms

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd example of HEICO being the barnacle to TransDigm’s whale.
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Citation Needed
Video: The charges against Binance In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant...
a year ago
98

Video: The charges against Binance

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant Binance and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, I started writing up an overview of everything that had happened to the company over the past few years. I'd written separately about a...
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Commoncog
The Hospitality Solution in Your Business A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve...
8 months ago
98

The Hospitality Solution in Your Business

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve (certain) business problems with hospitality, and that it only takes a little thoughtfulness to do so.
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FIRE v London
July ’24: New UK government July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
9 months ago
98

July ’24: New UK government

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #195 BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
a year ago
98

The Digest #195

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
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Commoncog
Tacit Expertise Extraction, Software Engineering Edition One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior...
a year ago
98

Tacit Expertise Extraction, Software Engineering Edition

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior software engineers'. Useful to anyone who might want to accelerate their own skills.
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Mazdak
A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the...
a year ago
97

A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the economy that remains ill: the office sector of the U.S. commercial real-estate market. ** What's the Problem?** Hybrid/remote work: What began as a two-week work-from-home...
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Commoncog
The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same...
over a year ago
97

The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same time? Deming — who came up with these data techniques — believe that it is possible. I'm not so sure.
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The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
a year ago
97

What I’ve Been Reading

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
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Mazdak
Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its...
a year ago
97

Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its acquisition of smart TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion. This deal is far more than just about TVs; it's a strategic play by Walmart to become a major force in the booming
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Citation Needed
Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried...
a year ago
97

Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried doesn't want to go to jail for 100 years.
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Commoncog
Commoncog's Next Phase Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains...
a year ago
96

Commoncog's Next Phase

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains series free, and one more thing.
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The Rational Walk
Biden’s Withdrawal and the Limits of Gaslighting President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the...
9 months ago
96

Biden’s Withdrawal and the Limits of Gaslighting

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the Democratic Party and allies in the mainstream media.
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Commoncog
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
9 months ago
96

Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #190 Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben...
a year ago
96

The Digest #190

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben Graham's summer on a farm, Income taxes, Interviews of Bruce Berkowitz and Howard Marks, and more...
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Farnam Street
Why Write Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
over a year ago
96

Why Write

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
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Citation Needed
Issue 53 – Choose rich Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
a year ago
95

Issue 53 – Choose rich

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #191 The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel...
a year ago
95

The Digest #191

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel shareholders, Investing lessons from Earnest Shackleton, Google's Gemini AI goes off the rails
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Commoncog
Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a...
over a year ago
95

Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a deliberate practice training program isn't as difficult as you might think.
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Commoncog
One Definition of Wisdom Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
a year ago
95

One Definition of Wisdom

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
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Mazdak
How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie: A Summary and Key Takeaways Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential...
a year ago
95

How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie: A Summary and Key Takeaways

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential self-help books ever written. First published in 1936, it has sold over 50 million copies and been translated into over 30 languages. The book is a practical guide to improving...
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Citation Needed
Issue 63 – RobConf 2024 Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat...
9 months ago
95

Issue 63 – RobConf 2024

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat with Lyn Alden about sexism in bitcoin.
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Commoncog
Focus Doesn't Mean Doing One Thing at a Time Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time....
over a year ago
95

Focus Doesn't Mean Doing One Thing at a Time

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time. This is what focus looks like at an organisational level, told through the story of a business turnaround and the Marine Corps approach to war.
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Citation Needed
Review: Chris Dixon's Read Write Own Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain...
a year ago
95

Review: Chris Dixon's Read Write Own

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain solutionists.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #187 Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the...
a year ago
95

The Digest #187

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the market, Damodaran data updates, Apple packaging, Samsung, Big Pharma
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Mazdak
2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step 2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to...
a year ago
95

2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to generate human-quality text, while chipmaker Nvidia pushed the boundaries of what's possible with graphics processing units (GPUs). But amidst the hype, there were also concerns about...
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Mazdak
The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured...
a year ago
94

The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured the attention of the world. ChatGPT's ability to generate human-quality text, translate languages, write different kinds of creative content, and answer questions in an informative...
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Commoncog
The Capital Cycle What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
a year ago
94

The Capital Cycle

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
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The Rational Walk
Thucydides Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between...
8 months ago
94

Thucydides

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between 431 - 404 BC.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #209 Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
9 months ago
94

The Digest #209

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
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Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 2 This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for...
a year ago
94

Attention is all you need – Part 2

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I concluded the previous post by explaining how Attention works. You can download the Excel sheet and Python code that explains how Attention from here and...
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FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
a year ago
93

Sep 23: Antisocial markets

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
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The Rational Walk
The Oresteia The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery,...
11 months ago
93

The Oresteia

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery, mankind finds its way toward due process and justice.
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FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
8 months ago
93

August ’24: From triumph to tragedy

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
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Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
a year ago
92

Anatomy of a credit card rewards program

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
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Mazdak
Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful...
a year ago
92

Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful player in the industry. This deal puts an end to a years-long investigation into Binance. The deal: CZ agreed to pay $50 million in fines and is prohibited from operating or managing...
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Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
a year ago
92

The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
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The Rational Walk
Endurance The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived...
a year ago
92

Endurance

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived shipwreck, ice floes, and constant danger.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #186 Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment...
a year ago
92

The Digest #186

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment checklists, Shane Parrish interviews Tom Gayner, Novo Nordisk, Howard Marks on interest rates
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Citation Needed
Issue 66 – Pretensions to relevance FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky...
7 months ago
92

Issue 66 – Pretensions to relevance

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky goes to trial, and some more ill-received blockchain games suggest “GameFi” has an uncertain future.
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Mazdak
The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real...
a year ago
92

The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real estate in Canada. It's important to note that this strategy is generally more complex and may not be suitable for everyone. When Owning Real Estate Personally Might Be Better
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Commoncog
What Rigorous Process Improvement in Education Looks Like What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
7 months ago
92

What Rigorous Process Improvement in Education Looks Like

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should do this in your own organisational contexts.
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Mazdak
Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket? The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the...
a year ago
92

Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the dream of homeownership into a distant mirage for many Canadians. But before you resign yourself to renting forever, consider this: owning a home may not be the guaranteed...
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The Rational Walk
The Limits of the 25th Amendment The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe...
10 months ago
91

The Limits of the 25th Amendment

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe limits that should be acknowledged.
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Commoncog
What To Think When Looking at a Chart In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb...
a year ago
91

What To Think When Looking at a Chart

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb question that nobody seems to talk about.
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Citation Needed
Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x" Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
a year ago
91

Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x"

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
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FIRE v London
Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to...
over a year ago
91

Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to check out Dorset’s Chesil beach. We struck lucky with the weather and had a fine, distinctly non-London, time, over a very blustery Easter weekend. My walking shoes seem to have...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #176 Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land,...
a year ago
91

The Digest #176

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land, John Oliver skewers dollar stores, Apple regrets, The Great Books Journal
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Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
7 months ago
91

Fiction and Finance

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
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Mazdak
The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024 The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
a year ago
91

The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
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The Rational Walk
The Iliad Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
a year ago
90

The Iliad

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
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Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
over a year ago
90

Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
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Seeking Wisdom
From Linear to Logistic – Sigmoid Curve and Log Loss Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my...
a year ago
90

From Linear to Logistic – Sigmoid Curve and Log Loss

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Let’s train a model to predict heart disease using sleep and exercise data....
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The Rational Walk
Two Sides of the Same Coin Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the...
a year ago
90

Two Sides of the Same Coin

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the longer it will take to achieve financial independence.
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Commoncog
Running a Fine Dining Restaurant in a Recession How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about...
9 months ago
90

Running a Fine Dining Restaurant in a Recession

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 months ago
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about operating through the capital cycle.
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 217,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the...
3 months ago
90

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 217,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 201,000 to 203,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #212 Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates,...
8 months ago
89

The Digest #212

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates, Competing in Search, The American Dream, Li Lu, Deep Dive into AI, The Impact of Debt, and more ...
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Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
a year ago
89

The Elon Musk Empire

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
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Mazdak
A Review and Analysis of "The Laws of Human Nature" by Robert Greene Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different...
a year ago
89

A Review and Analysis of "The Laws of Human Nature" by Robert Greene

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different approach in his 2018 book, "The Laws of Human Nature." Instead of focusing on acquiring power over others, he dives deep into the intricate workings of human psychology, unveiling...
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Mazdak
Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and...
a year ago
89

Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and battling for the last box of Oreos. The retail giant is about to revolutionize your shopping experience with a generative AI makeover. Imagine this: You're planning a Super Bowl bash,...
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Bits about Money
Payroll providers, Power, Respect Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is...
a year ago
88

Payroll providers, Power, Respect

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is complicated.
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Mazdak
AI's Energy Problem: Can We Power Progress Without Wrecking the Planet? ⚡️🌎 AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai...
a year ago
88

AI's Energy Problem: Can We Power Progress Without Wrecking the Planet? ⚡️🌎

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai for COP28, it's more important than ever to understand the complex relationship between AI and climate change. Why it matters: AI could become one of the biggest energy guzzlers on...
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The Rational Walk
Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of...
a year ago
88

Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of the annual commitments pledged in 2006.
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Commoncog
The Shape of a Technological Window Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how...
over a year ago
88

The Shape of a Technological Window

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how he used it over the course of his career. Note: this is a follow-up to and an update for the Commoncog Case Library Beta.
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Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
a year ago
88

Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
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Mazdak
A Brighter Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024? The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples...
a year ago
88

A Brighter Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples through the housing market, sparking both excitement and cautious optimism among prospective buyers and existing homeowners alike. While the prospect of lower mortgage rates is...
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The Rational Walk
Improving Disclosure for Public Companies The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing...
a year ago
88

Improving Disclosure for Public Companies

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing three simple proposals.
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Q&A Session Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual...
a year ago
88

Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Q&A Session

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual meeting after Charlie Munger's death.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #184 Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing,...
a year ago
88

The Digest #184

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing, Damodaran's 2024 data update, Michael Ovitz, Live Oak, Red Bull, Capital allocation
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Commoncog
The Dangers of Expansion A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and...
8 months ago
88

The Dangers of Expansion

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and everyone really only learns this through pain.
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balajis.com
The Men's Party Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
a year ago
87

The Men's Party

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
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Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
a year ago
87

The Two Types of Data Analysis

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
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Commoncog
Setting the Business Expertise Series Free Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her...
a year ago
87

Setting the Business Expertise Series Free

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her collaborators.
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Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 2 This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts...
a year ago
87

Neural Networks – Part 2

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts before reading this one. When using linear and logistic regression, which involve just a single linear equation, calculating derivatives is easy since there is only one equation...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #188 Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
a year ago
87

The Digest #188

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
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Commoncog
Process Improvement is Trickier Than You Think Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because...
over a year ago
87

Process Improvement is Trickier Than You Think

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because they're bad or lazy — but because there are system dynamics that prevent them from doing so. We take a look at what those are.
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Citation Needed
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
8 months ago
86

Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
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Citation Needed
Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
a year ago
86

Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
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Commoncog
An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two...
over a year ago
86

An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two months in: what I learnt, what was hard, and what deliberate practice actually feels like.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #194 Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation,...
a year ago
86

The Digest #194

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons of history
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #189 Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty...
a year ago
86

The Digest #189

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty hours in the Vision Pro, Fairfax Financial, Parks America, Howard Marks, Danny Myer
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FIRE v London
Mayday for IBKR margin lending Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No...
over a year ago
86

Mayday for IBKR margin lending

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No longer. If you’ve read my other posts (like this or this or this) on margin lending, and are interested in exploring further, make you read this post before you do. Why I used to like...
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FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
a year ago
86

Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
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Mazdak
Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones...
a year ago
86

Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones of Canadian financial planning. Both offer distinct advantages for saving and investing, but exceeding their annual contribution limits can lead to unwanted financial consequences.
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Commoncog
Capital Allocation as an Antidote to Business Luck The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a...
a year ago
85

Capital Allocation as an Antidote to Business Luck

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a business outcome. Capital allocation matters because it allows you more skill, less luck, on the journey to a large outcome.
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Commoncog
The Disaffected PhD Skunkworks: A Story About Process Improvement A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service...
over a year ago
85

The Disaffected PhD Skunkworks: A Story About Process Improvement

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service at Amazon.
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The Rational Walk
The Theban Plays The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot...
7 months ago
85

The Theban Plays

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot has captivated audiences for nearly 2,500 years.
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Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge 'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
over a year ago
85

There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
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Commoncog
Dancing Landscapes in Business Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the...
over a year ago
85

Dancing Landscapes in Business

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the wickedness of business.
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Citation Needed
Issue 47 – Residual garbage All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
a year ago
85

Issue 47 – Residual garbage

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
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The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
a year ago
85

The River of Doubt

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
a year ago
84

Berkshire Hathaway Energy

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
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Citation Needed
Fighting for our web A talk from XOXO
7 months ago
84

Fighting for our web

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
A talk from XOXO
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #215 Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking...
7 months ago
84

The Digest #215

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking Kamala Harris, Weaponizing political anger, Nick Sleep's letters, Howard Marks on risk
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The Rational Walk
Buffett Continues to Avoid Long-Term Bonds Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to...
a year ago
84

Buffett Continues to Avoid Long-Term Bonds

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to higher interest rates.
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Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?) Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
5 months ago
84

Debanking (and Debunking?)

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
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Mazdak
Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖 In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open...
a year ago
84

Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open source development has emerged, firing shots at the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. These tech giants have captured much of the AI spotlight in 2023, but the alliance believes...
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Mazdak
Google's Gemini Enters the AI Arena: Ready to Take on OpenAI? Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This...
a year ago
84

Google's Gemini Enters the AI Arena: Ready to Take on OpenAI?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This powerful AI is set to shake things up, potentially rivaling big names like OpenAI and Microsoft. What's the Buzz About Gemini? Gemini comes in three flavors:
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Mazdak
Adobe Scraps $20 Billion Figma Deal Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the...
a year ago
84

Adobe Scraps $20 Billion Figma Deal

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the table! This dramatic pivot throws a spotlight on the tightening grip of global regulators on tech mergers, leaving investors and industry players to wonder:
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December,...
3 months ago
83

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 months ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and slipped in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales accelerated in all four...
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Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
a year ago
83

Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
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Commoncog
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
over a year ago
83

You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
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Citation Needed
Polling: Are Democratic voters really “increasingly gravitating towards crypto”? Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How...
8 months ago
83

Polling: Are Democratic voters really “increasingly gravitating towards crypto”?

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How does it stack up to other industry polls, which are often heavily manipulated to paint a deceptively rosy picture?
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Commoncog
How to Become Data Driven The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious...
over a year ago
83

How to Become Data Driven

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious than you might think.
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The Rational Walk
Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined...
a year ago
83

Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined ratio.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #213 Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects,...
8 months ago
83

The Digest #213

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects, Personal Bots, Bitcoin, AI vs. Reality, "Useless" Knowledge, Jay Bowen, Rudy Havenstein
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Farnam Street
Reciprocity: Getting What You Give This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics,...
over a year ago
83

Reciprocity: Getting What You Give

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics, Chemistry and Biology Reciprocity teaches us why win-win relationships are the way to go, why waiters leave candies with the bill, why it’s a good idea to use the least force possible...
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Farnam Street
Language: Why We Hear More Than Words It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me...
over a year ago
83

Language: Why We Hear More Than Words

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me forgetting her birthday! Then why is she throwing dishes in the kitchen? Are the two things related? I wish I had a translator for my spouse. What is going on?” The answer: Extreme...
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Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
a year ago
82

⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
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Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
a year ago
82

Citation Needed has a new home

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
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FIRE v London
Compounding, type II Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of...
6 months ago
82

Compounding, type II

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of compound annual growth rates is something I feel quite viscerally, the more so with each month that I track my portfolio. But I’ve been struck recently by a radical improvement in...
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The Rational Walk
Inflation Expectations There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers...
a year ago
82

Inflation Expectations

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers should pay close attention to Warren Buffett's statements and actions.
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Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦) Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
a year ago
82

A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦)

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
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Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
a year ago
82

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
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Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
a year ago
82

Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
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The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 3 During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies...
a year ago
82

Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 3

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies during the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s is a perfect case study.
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The Rational Walk
Free Articles! All articles older than six months are now free to read.
a year ago
82

Free Articles!

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
All articles older than six months are now free to read.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #179 Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI...
a year ago
81

The Digest #179

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI colonoscopies, Advice on tipping, Alcohol and cardiovascular risks, Nicomachean ethics
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Farnam Street
Learning Through Play Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind...
over a year ago
81

Learning Through Play

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind leads us to find new information, better understand our own capabilities, and find unexpected beauty around us. Arithmetic is one example of an area we can explore through play....
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Mazdak
2024: The Year the Economy Wins? As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a...
a year ago
81

2024: The Year the Economy Wins?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a potential shift towards a more balanced and stable environment. While challenges and uncertainties remain, let's explore the key trends and strategic insights that can guide us...
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Commoncog
Cultural Advantage is Counter Positioning Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be...
over a year ago
81

Cultural Advantage is Counter Positioning

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be counter-positioning, not process power. Why this is surprising, and why it matters.
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Citation Needed
Issue 67 – Bug out bitcoin Crypto resurfaces on the campaign trail and the FTX fallout continues to unfold. Also, merch!
7 months ago
81

Issue 67 – Bug out bitcoin

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Crypto resurfaces on the campaign trail and the FTX fallout continues to unfold. Also, merch!
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Commoncog
Putting Amazon’s PR/FAQ to Practice What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company...
over a year ago
81

Putting Amazon’s PR/FAQ to Practice

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company context, and what was surprising and difficult about it.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #196 Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on...
a year ago
80

The Digest #196

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on Disney's proxy war, Lessons from Paul Graham, Dunbar's number
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Mazdak
Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀
a year ago
80

Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
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Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
over a year ago
80

Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
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Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
7 months ago
80

The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
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Citation Needed
POSSE: Reclaiming social media in a fragmented world A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still...
7 months ago
80

POSSE: Reclaiming social media in a fragmented world

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still maintaining a presence on third-party platforms.
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The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus,...
10 months ago
80

What I’ve Been Reading

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus, Herodotus, the Odyssey, and American Scripture.
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Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
over a year ago
80

Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or not?
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Commoncog
Business Reality Without Frameworks A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s...
6 months ago
79

Business Reality Without Frameworks

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s come before.
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Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights! Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
6 months ago
79

It’s a treasure trove of health insights!

from Seeking Wisdom [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
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Commoncog
Focus on the Cases Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than...
over a year ago
79

Focus on the Cases

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than synthesised business concepts.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #211 Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist...
8 months ago
79

The Digest #211

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist investing, Perils of forecasting, Orwell's 1984, Guy Spier, Ben Thompson, Estée Lauder
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Commoncog
Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
over a year ago
79

Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
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FIRE v London
Becoming an ISA $millionaire This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until...
a year ago
78

Becoming an ISA $millionaire

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until using my full annual ISA allowance(s), which took me much longer than usual last year. This year I actually completed my ISA topups in April, within a few weeks of the start of the...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #214 September 11, 2001, Nixon vs JFK, Apple's future, Damodaran on decline, Berkshire's book value,...
8 months ago
78

The Digest #214

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
September 11, 2001, Nixon vs JFK, Apple's future, Damodaran on decline, Berkshire's book value, Founder mode, Chasing dividends, Caro on LBJ, Peter Lynch, Epicureanism, Mt Everest
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #216 Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement",...
7 months ago
78

The Digest #216

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement", Caro's writing process, Buffett's ground rules, Sherwin Williams, Mysterious owls
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The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Evolving Estate Plan Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new...
10 months ago
78

Warren Buffett’s Evolving Estate Plan

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

10 months ago
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new charitable trust run by his children.
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Commoncog
Power and Asian Business The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
5 months ago
77

Power and Asian Business

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
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Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
over a year ago
77

Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking

from Farnam Street [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #203 American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value...
11 months ago
77

The Digest #203

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value Investor's Club, Nietzsche's world view, Are wrist watches effeminate?, Seinfeld on writing
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #218 Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles,...
7 months ago
77

The Digest #218

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 months ago
Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles, Doing what you love, Human aging, Ray Ozzie on intelligent machines, Aesop's Fables
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FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
5 months ago
77

Nov ’24: 3x

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
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Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
a year ago
77

Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
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Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
over a year ago
77

Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

over a year ago
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
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FIRE v London
From ISA $millionaire to £millionaire The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put...
8 months ago
77

From ISA $millionaire to £millionaire

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

8 months ago
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put £20k per year into an ISA account – use it for a wide range of investing activities – and not even have to report on what happens in those accounts, let alone pay tax on them.…...
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The Rational Walk
The Sad Irons During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill...
a year ago
76

The Sad Irons

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill Country. Success was integral to his path to greater power.
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The Rational Walk
The Digest #199 Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's...
11 months ago
76

The Digest #199

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

11 months ago
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, A long run perspective, the parent-therapy trap
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Mazdak
Google and the Canadian Government Reach a Deal on Online News Act The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three...
a year ago
76

Google and the Canadian Government Reach a Deal on Online News Act

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three weeks before the act is scheduled to come into effect. The deal will see Google continue to show Canadian news on its platforms in exchange for annual payments to Canadian news...
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The Rational Walk
The Cost of Corporate Security The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that...
5 months ago
75

The Cost of Corporate Security

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 months ago
The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that justifies higher corporate spending to protect executives.
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Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
a year ago
75

Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
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Mazdak
Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and...
a year ago
75

Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and diversify your portfolio. However, it's important to do your research and take the necessary steps to ensure a successful transition. Here are some practical tips for entrepreneurs...
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Commoncog
A Most Unlikely Master of Capital Allocation If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in...
a year ago
75

A Most Unlikely Master of Capital Allocation

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a year ago
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in her life, then perhaps you could, too.
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Citation Needed
Issue 68 – Opportunity agenda Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as...
6 months ago
74

Issue 68 – Opportunity agenda

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as another enters, and Stand With Crypto bets on the favorites.
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FIRE v London
Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK...
6 months ago
74

Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds...
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Citation Needed
Guilty or coerced? Ryan Salame’s last interviews before prison Unpacking my conversation with FTX executive Ryan Salame, where we discussed his claims that he’s...
6 months ago
74

Guilty or coerced? Ryan Salame’s last interviews before prison

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 months ago
Unpacking my conversation with FTX executive Ryan Salame, where we discussed his claims that he’s innocent of the charges for which he’s now serving seven and a half years in prison.
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