Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 221 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI. Q4 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. NOTE: I started the year adopting the position of Fed Chair Powell, taking a “wait and see” approach on what policies would actually be enacted. Now I’m trying to understand the impact of policy changes on housing. It appears building costs will increase significantly, and demand for housing will likely decline. I’ll have more soon. The Case-Shiller National Index increased 3.9% year-over-year (YoY) in December and will be about the same YoY - or slightly higher - in the January report (based on other data). There is much more in the article.

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (down from 3.6% YoY in January), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (unchanged from 3.1%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.3% (down from 3.1%).  Core PCE is for January was up 2.7% YoY, down from 2.9% in December.

Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.1% YoY as of February 2025, down from 4.2% YoY in January. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Durables were at -1.2% YoY as of February 2025, unchanged from -1.2% YoY in January. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through February) and housing from the PCE report (through January) Shelter was up 4.2% year-over-year in February, down from 4.4% in January. Housing (PCE) was up 4.5% YoY in January, down from 4.7% in December. This is still catching up with private new lease data. Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.2% YoY in February.

From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, after rising 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.8 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in February, following a 0.4-percent increase in January. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, recreation, apparel, and personal care. The indexes for airline fares and new vehicles were among the few major indexes that decreased in February. The all items index rose 2.8 percent for the 12 months ending February, after rising 3.0 percent over the 12 months ending January. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 0.2 percent for the 12 months ending February. The food index increased 2.6 percent over the last year. emphasis added The change in CPI was below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.