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Calculated Risk
March 7th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
7 hours ago
1

March 7th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

7 hours ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in February; Up 0.1% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale...
9 hours ago
1

Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in February; Up 0.1% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

9 hours ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in February compared to January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) decreased to 204.1, which...
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Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
13 hours ago
1

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

13 hours ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.4% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index now sits at 6.9...
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Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty" From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy...
14 hours ago
1

Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

14 hours ago
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to be in a good place. The labor market is solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal. At the Federal Reserve, we are intently focused on the...
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-High 1% Range Special Note: There was a surge in gold imports in January. There is a time lag for when the...
16 hours ago
1

Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-High 1% Range

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

16 hours ago
Special Note: There was a surge in gold imports in January. There is a time lag for when the imported gold will show up in inventories. GDPNow will correct for this once the gold is included as an increase in inventories, but currently GDPNow just included the import side. ...
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The Diff
Two Kinds of News Business Plus! AI as an Interface; Post-Post; Meta-Moderation; Custom Finance; Voice and Search
16 hours ago
2

Two Kinds of News Business

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

16 hours ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; Post-Post; Meta-Moderation; Custom Finance; Voice and Search
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Calculated Risk
Comments on February Employment Report The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and...
18 hours ago
1

Comments on February Employment Report

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

18 hours ago
The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to...
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Calculated Risk
February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February,...
18 hours ago
1

February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

18 hours ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, financial activities,...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
yesterday
2

Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

yesterday
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for February.   The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At The...
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Calculated Risk
February Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus is...
2 days ago
1

February Employment Preview

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 170k in February, slightly above consensus of +160k but below...
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Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 days ago
2

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
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The Diff
The CoreWeave Triangle Plus! Gimmicks; Correlations; Continuous Search; Re-Emerging Markets; Tax Incidence
2 days ago
3

The CoreWeave Triangle

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
Plus! Gimmicks; Correlations; Continuous Search; Re-Emerging Markets; Tax Incidence
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Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
2 days ago
2

Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December, revised. ...
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
2 days ago
2

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
2 days ago
2

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 234 initial claims down from 242 thousand last week. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for January...
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Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: Home Prices Increased 3.3% Year-over-year in January Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The recent Case-Shiller index...
3 days ago
2

CoreLogic: Home Prices Increased 3.3% Year-over-year in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for December. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Largely Flat in January U.S. home price...
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Musings on Markets
Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism! In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world,...
3 days ago
5

Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world, looking at both the magnitude and the form of that return. I start with a framework for thinking about how much cash a business can return to its owners, and then argue that, in the...
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Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly" Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported...
3 days ago
3

Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported no change, four reported modest or moderate growth, and two noted slight contractions. Consumer spending was lower on balance, with reports of solid demand for essential goods mixed...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Stoicism of the Caregiver These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of...
3 days ago
3

The Stoicism of the Caregiver

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of caregiving don't get much attention. They're not part of the news flow, and the day-to-day grind of caregiving doesn't lend itself to the self-promotional zeitgeist of social media....
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Bits about Money
Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of...
3 days ago
9

Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of investigative journalism.
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Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a...
3 days ago
2

ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Brief excerpt: Property Insurance Premiums Increased Sharply in 2024 • The average annual property insurance premium among mortgaged single-family homes rose by a...
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Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increased to 53.5% in February (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The...
3 days ago
3

ISM® Services Index Increased to 53.5% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The employment index increased to 53.9%, from 52.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 53.5% February 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
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Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in...
3 days ago
3

ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in February; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 days ago
2

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 20.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 28,...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Beige Book Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 days ago
2

Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Beige Book

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 140,000 payroll jobs added in February,...
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Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 7% YoY This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The...
4 days ago
2

Update: Lumber Prices Up 7% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. ...
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Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
4 days ago
3

Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 460 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
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Mazdak
Claude vs. ChatGPT: A Comprehensive Comparison In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational...
4 days ago
8

Claude vs. ChatGPT: A Comprehensive Comparison

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, two names stand out in the realm of conversational assistants—Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Although both are built on large language models, they diverge sharply in design philosophy, technical implementation, safety...
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The Diff
PE: Cycles and One-Off Events Plus! Streaming and Marketplaces; Automating Applications; Edge AI; Tariff Day; The AI Buildout
4 days ago
2

PE: Cycles and One-Off Events

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
Plus! Streaming and Marketplaces; Automating Applications; Edge AI; Tariff Day; The AI Buildout
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Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January; Fannie Mae... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
4 days ago
3

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January; Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic)

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in January was 0.61%, up from 0.59% December. Freddie's rate is up...
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances...
4 days ago
3

Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While As the table shows, Federal Reserve net income was substantially negative in 2023 and 2024, with a combined net loss in these two years of almost $200...
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Tariffs! From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Over The...
4 days ago
3

Tuesday: Tariffs!

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 days ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Over The Weekend Mortgage rates faced a very small threat of a very small increase this morning. The underlying bond market was in weaker territory to start the day and that typically means mortgage...
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Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.00 million SAAR in February Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability...
5 days ago
2

Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.00 million SAAR in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability Headwind, U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Rise 3.4% in February (pay site). Continuing January’s trend, market strength was at the two far ends of the affordability scale, as entry-price cars...
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Calculated Risk
A Comment on GDPNow On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed...
5 days ago
3

A Comment on GDPNow

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed went strongly negative in the most recent reading: "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on...
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oftwominds-Charles...
If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On? Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. ...
5 days ago
4

If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On?

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an...
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Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January...
5 days ago
3

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
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The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Berkshire’s Valuation Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some...
5 days ago
5

Warren Buffett on Berkshire’s Valuation

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Warren Buffett has typically avoided commenting on Berkshire's stock price, but he has provided some clues that are worth considering.
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Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Decreased 0.2% in January From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending...
5 days ago
3

Construction Spending Decreased 0.2% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure...
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The Diff
AI's Impact on the Written Word is Vastly Overstated Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk...
5 days ago
4

AI's Impact on the Written Word is Vastly Overstated

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk Management; Diff Jobs
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Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 50.3% in February (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3%...
5 days ago
3

ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 50.3% in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3% in February, down from 50.9% in January. The employment index was at 47.6%, down from 50.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 48.6%, down from...
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Calculated Risk
Housing March 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.1% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now...
5 days ago
3

Housing March 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.1% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 2.4% from the seasonal bottom seven weeks ago in January and should start increasing seasonally in March. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family...
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Commoncog
Activist Investing in Asian Conglomerates How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators?...
5 days ago
9

Activist Investing in Asian Conglomerates

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
How do Asian conglomerates play in capital markets, given pliable governments and weak regulators? We examine the career of one activist investor, to see what that tells us about the Asian tycoons we’ve been studying.
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Citation Needed
Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory...
5 days ago
6

Issue 78 – President on brink of bailout for bitcoin

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

5 days ago
Trump tries to breathe life back into the crypto markets’ “Trump pump” while federal regulatory agencies wash their hands of any crypto industry oversight
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Calculated Risk
Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is...
6 days ago
3

Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.  Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending. Light vehicle sales for...
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 February The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed...
6 days ago
3

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.7% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

6 days ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 February The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 February. ... 16-22 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 60.3%...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
a week ago
3

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Hackers, Safety, EBITDA, More Hackers, Feudalism, Randomness, CEOs
a week ago
4

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Hackers, Safety, EBITDA, More Hackers, Feudalism, Randomness, CEOs
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report. ----- Monday, March 3rd...
a week ago
5

Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report. ----- Monday, March 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.  Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for...
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Calculated Risk
February 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a week ago
5

February 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Moneyness
What do you do with memecoins? Apparently you collect them, says the SEC I have no idea if memecoins like dogecoin and fartcoin should be legally defined as securities, and...
a week ago
7

What do you do with memecoins? Apparently you collect them, says the SEC

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
I have no idea if memecoins like dogecoin and fartcoin should be legally defined as securities, and thus come under the purview of securities regulators like the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). Securities law is confusing. But what I do know is that the SEC's latest notion...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Three Ways to Restore Housing Affordability The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable...
a week ago
5

Three Ways to Restore Housing Affordability

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable speculative asset in the global financialization casino. It can't be both. We tend to think of housing becoming unaffordable as a matter of land prices, zoning and the cost of...
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print...
a week ago
4

Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print and a tenth higher than our tracking estimate. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 28th] emphasis added From Goldman:...
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Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
a week ago
3

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.41% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
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The Diff
Running an Oil Major in a Not-Post-Hydrocarbon-Any-Time-Soon World Plus! Corporate VC; Hacking AI Moderation; Product Parity; Crypto Regulation; GPU Demand
a week ago
5

Running an Oil Major in a Not-Post-Hydrocarbon-Any-Time-Soon World

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Corporate VC; Hacking AI Moderation; Product Parity; Crypto Regulation; GPU Demand
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Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.5% YoY in January Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
a week ago
3

PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.5% YoY in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through January 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.4% year-over-year in January, down from 4.6% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
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Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.9% in January; Spending Decreased 0.2% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income...
a week ago
4

Personal Income increased 0.9% in January; Spending Decreased 0.2%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
a week ago
4

Friday: Personal Income & Outlays

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase...
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Mazdak
OpenAI Unveils GPT-4.5: Here’s Everything You Need to Know The AI race just got more interesting.
a week ago
4

OpenAI Unveils GPT-4.5: Here’s Everything You Need to Know

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The AI race just got more interesting.
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a week ago
3

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to...
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Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.7% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below...
a week ago
4

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.7% below 2022 peak

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the December Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
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The Diff
Amazon Wants AI Models Commoditized. Can They Make it Happen? Plus! Business and Editorial; The Other AI Growth Story; Getting Ahead of the Shift; Activist Shorts
a week ago
5

Amazon Wants AI Models Commoditized. Can They Make it Happen?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Business and Editorial; The Other AI Growth Story; Getting Ahead of the Shift; Activist Shorts
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 4.6% in January to an "All-time low" From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in...
a week ago
4

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 4.6% in January to an "All-time low"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in January according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest, South and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with the most significant drop in the South...
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Mazdak
Amazon AWS Enters the Quantum Race with Ocelot Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of...
a week ago
6

Amazon AWS Enters the Quantum Race with Ocelot

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially entered the quantum computing race with the unveiling of Ocelot, its first quantum chip, developed in collaboration with Caltech.
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Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.3% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross...
a week ago
4

Q4 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.3% Annual Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released by the U.S....
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the...
a week ago
5

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,000, an increase of 8,500 from the...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a week ago
4

Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 225 thousand from 219 thousand last week. Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second...
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of...
a week ago
5

Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries “The Fed’s balance sheet runoff increases the supply of Treasuries. It’s easier for me to extend duration when I’m not competing with another big seller.” This statement...
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Annual Report My thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual report and Warren Buffett's letter to shareholders.
a week ago
7

Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Annual Report

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
My thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual report and Warren Buffett's letter to shareholders.
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oftwominds-Charles...
Housing: The Foundations of the Middle Class Are Crumbling Bottom line: with the loss of predictability, we've also lost any sense of future financial...
a week ago
6

Housing: The Foundations of the Middle Class Are Crumbling

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Bottom line: with the loss of predictability, we've also lost any sense of future financial security. Home ownership has been the foundation of middle-class stability and security for so long that it defines middle-class status as much as income. From the end of World War...
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate...
a week ago
5

Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. The previous three months were...
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Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)...
a week ago
4

New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in January 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S....
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a week ago
5

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 21,...
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: New Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a week ago
5

Wednesday: New Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. New Home Sales for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is that new home sales decreased to 678 thousand SAAR, down from 698 thousand in December.
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Calculated Risk
A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices A few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed...
a week ago
6

A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
A few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of...
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Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Decreased in Q4 2024 The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased...
a week ago
5

FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Decreased in Q4 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased in 2024 Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios Persisted emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. From the FDIC: The...
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The Diff
When and How Will AI Offer People Search? Plus! Consumption Patterns; Training Data; Grift Confluence; Marketing and Piracy; Convergence
a week ago
8

When and How Will AI Offer People Search?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! Consumption Patterns; Training Data; Grift Confluence; Marketing and Piracy; Convergence
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
a week ago
5

Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing...
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Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month...
a week ago
7

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.9% Annual Gain in December 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week at 2 Month Lows Mortgage...
a week ago
7

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week at 2 Month Lows Mortgage rates were already in line with the lowest levels since December 18th by last Thursday. They dropped to the best levels since December 12th a day later. end of last week. 30 year...
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FIRE v London
Buy to let: RIP Last year was the end of an era. I sold the Modern Flat, after owning it for over 20 years. A bit of...
a week ago
12

Buy to let: RIP

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Last year was the end of an era. I sold the Modern Flat, after owning it for over 20 years. A bit of history I ended up with my Modern Flat in that common way that many ‘accidental’ landlords have. It was my first rung on the property ownership ladder. Until it was time to…...
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Calculated Risk
February Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR, Up 1.5% YoY From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay...
a week ago
5

February Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR, Up 1.5% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Sales are recording solid gains, but production slowdowns capping dealer stock in a growth market – a market that ostensibly still is climbing out of the...
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Mazdak
TikTok Becomes the First App to Reach $6 Billion in Annual Consumer Spending In 2024, the short-form video platform, along with its Chinese counterpart Douyin, became the first...
a week ago
7

TikTok Becomes the First App to Reach $6 Billion in Annual Consumer Spending

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
In 2024, the short-form video platform, along with its Chinese counterpart Douyin, became the first non-game app to generate $6 billion in annual consumer spending.
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Calculated Risk
The Normal Seasonal Change for Median House Prices Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR:...
a week ago
6

The Normal Seasonal Change for Median House Prices

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January, I mentioned that the median price typically bottoms seasonally in January (contracts signed mostly in November and December)...
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The Diff
Filling Out Forms is Corvée Labor Plus! The Real News Business; Credit, Wealth, and Risk-Adjusted Returns; Less-Than-Truckload; Capex;...
a week ago
7

Filling Out Forms is Corvée Labor

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Plus! The Real News Business; Credit, Wealth, and Risk-Adjusted Returns; Less-Than-Truckload; Capex; Bundling and Scale; Diff Jobs
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Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always...
a week ago
7

Housing Feb 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.5% from the bottom six weeks ago in January. The first graph shows the seasonal...
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Musings on Markets
Data Update 8 for 2025: Debt, Taxes and Default - An Unholy Trifecta! There is a reason that every religion inveighs against borrowing money, driven by a history of...
a week ago
10

Data Update 8 for 2025: Debt, Taxes and Default - An Unholy Trifecta!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
There is a reason that every religion inveighs against borrowing money, driven by a history of people and businesses, borrowing too much and then paying the price, but a special vitriol is reserved for the lenders, not the borrowers, for encouraging this behavior. At the same...
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Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 Housing Starts and Recessions Chicago Fed National...
a week ago
7

Sunday Night Futures

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 Housing Starts and Recessions Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up...
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oftwominds-Charles...
When Markets Misbehave Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the...
a week ago
10

When Markets Misbehave

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the soundness of the hull and the level of self-reinforcing hubris. When Benoit Mandelbrot's book The (Mis)behavior of Markets was published in 2004, it was a revelation for many of...
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Calculated Risk
Housing Starts and Recessions This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading...
a week ago
10

Housing Starts and Recessions

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. Quintanilla quoted BESPOKE: “On a 12-month average basis, .. Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak .. Housing is the basis of one of my...
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Commoncog
Let’s Talk Corruption How to think about corruption when talking about Asian businesses. Part 4 of the Asian Conglomerate...
a week ago
11

Let’s Talk Corruption

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
How to think about corruption when talking about Asian businesses. Part 4 of the Asian Conglomerate series.
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Mazdak
Bybit’s $5.5 Billion Bank Run: A Turning Point for Crypto Security? In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, security is paramount.
a week ago
11

Bybit’s $5.5 Billion Bank Run: A Turning Point for Crypto Security?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, security is paramount.
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
a week ago
6

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Types, Ellison, AI, YouTube, Private Credit, Globalization, Lending, Huawei
a week ago
9

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
Types, Ellison, AI, YouTube, Private Credit, Globalization, Lending, Huawei
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 The key reports this week are January New Home sales, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income...
a week ago
9

Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a week ago
The key reports this week are January New Home sales, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for January, and Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, February 24th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index...
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Calculated Risk
February 21st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 weeks ago
8

February 21st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Declining

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Culture in 2050 By mid-century, changes in Berkshire Hathaway's voting control could make a breakup of the...
2 weeks ago
11

Berkshire Hathaway’s Culture in 2050

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
By mid-century, changes in Berkshire Hathaway's voting control could make a breakup of the conglomerate likely.
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2% From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14....
2 weeks ago
9

Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14. Since then, our 1Q GDP tracker is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 4Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.2% q/q saar...
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08...
2 weeks ago
7

Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Sales in January (4.08 million SAAR) were down 4.9% from the previous month and were 2.0% above the January 2024 sales rate. This was the fourth consecutive...
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The Diff
Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth? Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
2 weeks ago
9

Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth...
2 weeks ago
7

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth Consecutive Month Existing-home sales retreated in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slipped in three major U.S. regions and held steady in the...
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Calculated Risk
ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends;...
2 weeks ago
7

ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends; Wildfire Delinquencies Emerge • Delinquencies fell 24 basis points (bps) to 3.47% in January; that’s 10 bps higher than last year, but 33 bps below pre-pandemic levels Foreclosure...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
2 weeks ago
7

Friday: Existing Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.17 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
2 weeks ago
7

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to...
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Calculated Risk
California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in...
2 weeks ago
8

California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: Here a few more local markets prior to the NAR release tomorrow. Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.09 million...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Tax Benefits of Self-Employment Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth...
2 weeks ago
11

The Tax Benefits of Self-Employment

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth understanding if you're exploring self-employment. It's tax preparation time, the secular equivalent of crawling around the temple on cobblestones littered with broken glass....
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The Diff
Don't Try to Build Another Berkshire Plus! Humans in the Loop; Humans in the Loop, Con't.; The Hardware/Software Burden; Custody;...
2 weeks ago
12

Don't Try to Build Another Berkshire

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Humans in the Loop; Humans in the Loop, Con't.; The Hardware/Software Burden; Custody; Unwinding a Bubble
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Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Record Inbound Traffic for January This was a new record for imports in January, eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) by 17%! some...
2 weeks ago
9

LA Ports: Record Inbound Traffic for January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
This was a new record for imports in January, eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) by 17%! some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or...
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
2 weeks ago
7

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
2 weeks ago
7

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 216 thousand from 213 thousand last week. manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a...
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Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "Billings remain soft to start the new year" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
2 weeks ago
8

AIA: Architecture Billings "Billings remain soft to start the new year"

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI January 2025: Architecture firm billings remain soft to start the new year The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score was 45.6 for the month, slightly above the...
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Mazdak
Microsoft Unveils Majorana 1: A Quantum Leap Towards the Future After 17 years of research and development, Microsoft has unveiled its first quantum...
2 weeks ago
14

Microsoft Unveils Majorana 1: A Quantum Leap Towards the Future

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
After 17 years of research and development, Microsoft has unveiled its first quantum processor—Majorana 1. This breakthrough has the potential to redefine the future of computing, promising industrial-scale problem-solving and scientific discovery at an unprecedented level.
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Calculated Risk
FOMC Minutes: Concern about tariffs, "take time" on any additional Rate Cuts From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28–29, 2025. Excerpt: With...
2 weeks ago
8

FOMC Minutes: Concern about tariffs, "take time" on any additional Rate Cuts

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28–29, 2025. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although progress could remain...
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million...
2 weeks ago
7

Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in January were below expectations; however, starts in November and December were revised up. Total starts were down 0.7%...
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Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
2 weeks ago
7

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,366,000. This is 9.8 percent below the revised December estimate of 1,515,000 and is 0.7 percent below the January 2024 rate of 1,376,000. Single-family housing starts in...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
2 weeks ago
9

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 14,...
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Citation Needed
Issue 77 – Whenever presidents get involved, if they become angry, you don't want to be there A major crypto scandal tarnishes the reputation of Solana bigwigs, crypto influencers, and Argentine...
2 weeks ago
9

Issue 77 – Whenever presidents get involved, if they become angry, you don't want to be there

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
A major crypto scandal tarnishes the reputation of Solana bigwigs, crypto influencers, and Argentine President Javier Milei.
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Citation Needed
Transcript of leaked call with Meteora’s Ben Chow A transcript of a leaked call between DefiTuna’s Moty Povolotski and Meteora’s Ben Chow
2 weeks ago
12

Transcript of leaked call with Meteora’s Ben Chow

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
A transcript of a leaked call between DefiTuna’s Moty Povolotski and Meteora’s Ben Chow
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
2 weeks ago
10

Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Housing Starts for January. The consensus is for 1.394 million SAAR, down from 1.499 million SAAR. Architecture Billings Index for January (a leading...
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Musings on Markets
Return on Equity, Earnings Yield and Market Efficiency: Back to Basics! While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by...
2 weeks ago
13

Return on Equity, Earnings Yield and Market Efficiency: Back to Basics!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by two events. The first was the response that I received to my last data update, where I looked at the profitability of businesses, and specifically at how a comparison of accounting...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Problem With Money Isn't Money The Problem With Money is that it's complicated. To many minds, the solution to our core...
2 weeks ago
13

The Problem With Money Isn't Money

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The Problem With Money is that it's complicated. To many minds, the solution to our core economic problems is to return to sound money via either the gold standard, in which gold backs all currency, or by substituting bitcoin for gold, i.e. bitcoin becomes the coin of the...
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Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage...
2 weeks ago
7

MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.47% of servicers’ portfolio...
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Calculated Risk
The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for...
2 weeks ago
9

The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates A brief excerpt: Housing economist Tom Lawler has written extensively on the neutral rate. He has argued that the neutral rate has increased back to...
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The Diff
The Annoying Path to Privacy Herd Immunity Plus! Robots; Competition; Model Moderation; Eggs; Sentiment
2 weeks ago
11

The Annoying Path to Privacy Herd Immunity

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Plus! Robots; Competition; Model Moderation; Eggs; Sentiment
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Calculated Risk
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost Concerns" in February The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42,...
2 weeks ago
9

NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost Concerns" in February

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42, down from 47 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost...
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Moneyness
Ending the penny won't lead to more nickels Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing the penny because it is unprofitable,...
2 weeks ago
14

Ending the penny won't lead to more nickels

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing the penny because it is unprofitable, costing 3.69 cents to produce each one. In response, the lobbyists that earn big profits from the ongoing existence of the penny have come out in full force with dubious arguments for...
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Commoncog
Outcome Orientation as a Cure for Information Overload A simple, effective — though not easy! — technique for solving information overload. Written from...
2 weeks ago
13

Outcome Orientation as a Cure for Information Overload

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
A simple, effective — though not easy! — technique for solving information overload. Written from practice.
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The...
2 weeks ago
9

Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg, Homebuilder Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of -1.0, up from -12.6. NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 47, unchanged from 47 the previous month. Any number below 50...
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Calculated Risk
President Washington's Farewell Address I usually celebrate President Washington's birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief...
2 weeks ago
7

President Washington's Farewell Address

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
I usually celebrate President Washington's birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief excerpt: To the efficacy and permanency of your Union, a Government for the whole is indispensable. No alliances, however strict, between the parts can be an adequate substitute; they...
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
2 weeks ago
7

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: There is much more in the article.
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Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.9% Week-over-week, Up 29.2% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.9% week-over-week. Inventory always...
2 weeks ago
13

Housing Feb 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.9% Week-over-week, Up 29.2% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.9% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.2% from the bottom five weeks ago in January. The first graph shows the seasonal...
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.5% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 February The U.S. hotel industry reported negative...
2 weeks ago
9

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.5% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 February The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 8 February. ... 2-8 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 55.9%...
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.5% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
2 weeks ago
9

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.5% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to...
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FIRE v London
Jan ’25: Trump 2.0 begins Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January? We had a remarkable fracas about the...
2 weeks ago
12

Jan ’25: Trump 2.0 begins

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January? We had a remarkable fracas about the so-called “Pakistani grooming gangs” scandal here in the UK, with Elon Musk weighing in. At the time it seemed remarkable but one month later, as I write this, I am pleased to say I can’t...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Q4 NY Fed...
2 weeks ago
8

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Part 2:...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Education, Auto Theft, Optimizers, AI, Energy, Financial Engineering, Deep Research
2 weeks ago
9

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
Education, Auto Theft, Optimizers, AI, Energy, Financial Engineering, Deep Research
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 The key reports this week are January Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, February...
2 weeks ago
10

Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

2 weeks ago
The key reports this week are January Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, February 17th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of Washington's Birthday. ----- Tuesday, February 18th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey...
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Calculated Risk
February 14th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Moving Sideways Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
3 weeks ago
9

February 14th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Moving Sideways

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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The Rational Walk
Staying the Course It is much easier for "know nothing" investors to stick with a dollar cost averaging program in the...
3 weeks ago
12

Staying the Course

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
It is much easier for "know nothing" investors to stick with a dollar cost averaging program in the long run.
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Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Low 2% Range From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th] emphasis added From...
3 weeks ago
9

Q1 GDP Tracking: Low 2% Range

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th] emphasis added From Goldman: Following this morning’s retail sales and industrial production reports, we lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +2.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Automation Institutionalizes Mediocrity Meanwhile, in the lived-in world, our quality of life is unraveling in myriad ways as...
3 weeks ago
12

Automation Institutionalizes Mediocrity

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Meanwhile, in the lived-in world, our quality of life is unraveling in myriad ways as algorithmically-driven under-competence and mediocrity are now the norm. When deployed by monopolies / cartels, automation institutionalizes mediocrity, and soon everyone forgets...
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Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
3 weeks ago
9

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release January Existing Home sales on Friday, February 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million in...
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The Diff
How Many Layers in the AI Stack? Plus! Scale; Outsourcing Capital; Closed-Loop Generative AI; The Perks of Market Power; Labor...
3 weeks ago
10

How Many Layers in the AI Stack?

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! Scale; Outsourcing Capital; Closed-Loop Generative AI; The Perks of Market Power; Labor Markets
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Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.5% in January From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased...
3 weeks ago
9

Industrial Production Increased 0.5% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased 0.5 percent in January after moving up 1.0 percent in December. In January, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following...
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Citation Needed
The crypto industry’s debanking smokescreen Cryptocurrency companies have co-opted legitimate concerns about banking discrimination to fight...
3 weeks ago
12

The crypto industry’s debanking smokescreen

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Cryptocurrency companies have co-opted legitimate concerns about banking discrimination to fight regulation — and Congress is buying it
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Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Decreased 0.9% in January On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and...
3 weeks ago
9

Retail Sales Decreased 0.9% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.2 percent from January 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Retail sales for...
3 weeks ago
9

Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Retail sales for January is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a no change in retail sales. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January. The consensus is for a 0.3%...
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Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
3 weeks ago
10

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
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Calculated Risk
Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain... Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by...
3 weeks ago
9

Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low A brief excerpt: The first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Not-So-Strange Paradox of American Power and Dysfunction Americans seem to have forgotten that we are not slaves to finance-tech profits as the sole divining...
3 weeks ago
12

The Not-So-Strange Paradox of American Power and Dysfunction

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Americans seem to have forgotten that we are not slaves to finance-tech profits as the sole divining rods to what happens next. A recent essay explores the paradox of American power: global reach amidst civic decline: The Strange Triumph of a Broken America: Why Power...
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Calculated Risk
NY Fed Q4 Report: Household Debt Increased; High auto loan delinquency rates From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates...
3 weeks ago
8

NY Fed Q4 Report: Household Debt Increased; High auto loan delinquency rates

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates Remain Elevated for Auto and Credit Cards The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The...
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The Diff
Uber's AV Bet on a Narrow Range of Competitors' ROI Outcomes Plus! The Grid, and Cross-Subsidies; Pricing AI; Owning the Login; Liquidity Premium; Supply Chains
3 weeks ago
12

Uber's AV Bet on a Narrow Range of Competitors' ROI Outcomes

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! The Grid, and Cross-Subsidies; Pricing AI; Owning the Login; Liquidity Premium; Supply Chains
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 213,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 weeks ago
9

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 213,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
3 weeks ago
7

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 224 thousand from 219 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for January from the BLS. The...
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Calculated Risk
Poor Weather Reduced Employment by About 90,000 in January The BLS reported 143 thousand non-farm jobs were added in January.   During the Winter months, I...
3 weeks ago
9

Poor Weather Reduced Employment by About 90,000 in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The BLS reported 143 thousand non-farm jobs were added in January.   During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report. The BLS reported 573 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. ...
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Mazdak
Apple’s Next Big Bet? The Future of Robotics and the Smart Home For decades, Apple has been known for revolutionizing industries.
3 weeks ago
9

Apple’s Next Big Bet? The Future of Robotics and the Smart Home

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
For decades, Apple has been known for revolutionizing industries.
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate...
3 weeks ago
248

Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest A brief excerpt: When talking about the so-called “neutral” interest rate, many financial commentators, financial analysts, and even monetary policymakers talk about...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The One True Test of AI Intelligence The point of this thought experiment is to reveal the true nature of our relationship with AI: we...
3 weeks ago
9

The One True Test of AI Intelligence

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The point of this thought experiment is to reveal the true nature of our relationship with AI: we only love it as a mindless slave that makes us rich. From the earliest days of artificial intelligence, what test proves AI equivalence with human intelligence has been the...
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Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in January The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
3 weeks ago
9

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.6% (down from 3.7% YoY in December), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (down from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose...
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Musings on Markets
Data Update 7 for 2025: The End Game in Business! I am in the third week of the corporate finance class that I teach at NYU Stern, and my students...
3 weeks ago
8

Data Update 7 for 2025: The End Game in Business!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
I am in the third week of the corporate finance class that I teach at NYU Stern, and my students have been lulled into a false sense of complacency about what's coming, since I have not used a single metric or number in my class yet. In fact, we have spent almost four sessions...
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Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.2% YoY as...
3 weeks ago
31

YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.2% YoY as of January 2025, down from 4.4% YoY in December. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
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Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Increased 0.5% in January; Core CPI increased 0.4% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a...
3 weeks ago
9

BLS: CPI Increased 0.5% in January; Core CPI increased 0.4%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, after rising 0.4 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increased in Weekly Survey; Purchase Applications Declined From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
3 weeks ago
9

MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increased in Weekly Survey; Purchase Applications Declined

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 7,...
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Mazdak
YouTube’s AI Evolution: What’s Coming in 2025? YouTube is gearing up for a massive AI-driven transformation.
3 weeks ago
11

YouTube’s AI Evolution: What’s Coming in 2025?

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
YouTube is gearing up for a massive AI-driven transformation.
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: CPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 weeks ago
9

Wednesday: CPI

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up...
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The Rational Walk
Primary Sources Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible...
3 weeks ago
13

Primary Sources

from The Rational Walk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Consulting primary sources represents table stakes for intelligent investors and responsible citizens.
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Calculated Risk
CPI Preview The Consumer Price Index for January is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a...
3 weeks ago
10

CPI Preview

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The Consumer Price Index for January is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY. We expect a 0.34% increase in January...
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The Diff
Globalization, Regulatory Arbitrage, and Reshoring-on-Paper Plus! Antitrust Enforcement; Full-Stack; Decentralizing; Spoiler Bids; Platform Management
3 weeks ago
10

Globalization, Regulatory Arbitrage, and Reshoring-on-Paper

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! Antitrust Enforcement; Full-Stack; Decentralizing; Spoiler Bids; Platform Management
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Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
3 weeks ago
9

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
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Calculated Risk
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress This testimony will be live here at 10:00 AM ET and also on C-SPAN 3. Report here. An excerpt: The...
3 weeks ago
10

Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
This testimony will be live here at 10:00 AM ET and also on C-SPAN 3. Report here. An excerpt: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate...
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Moneyness
The end of El Salvador's bitcoin payments experiment Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use...
3 weeks ago
8

The end of El Salvador's bitcoin payments experiment

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use bitcoin for payments. Last month, four years later, it notched another record: it became the first country to rescind bitcoin's status as required tender. This backtracking was the...
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New...
3 weeks ago
11

Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New Week Mortgage rates have been on a vacation from volatility since January 16th when they fell back toward 7% after hitting the highest levels since May 2024. Top tier 30yr fixed rates...
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Mazdak
Elon Musk’s $97.4 Billion Bid for OpenAI Elon Musk has once again made headlines with a massive $97.4 billion bid to take control of OpenAI,...
3 weeks ago
14

Elon Musk’s $97.4 Billion Bid for OpenAI

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Elon Musk has once again made headlines with a massive $97.4 billion bid to take control of OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT.
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Calculated Risk
By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's...
3 weeks ago
8

By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Corporations as Modern-Day Warlords Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an...
3 weeks ago
8

Corporations as Modern-Day Warlords

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an apology to all those whose blood pressure will skyrocket upon reading this thought experiment. As we all know, science--the real thing, not "science"--advances via informed...
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Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
3 weeks ago
10

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-February provides a snapshot of the current housing market. tells the tale! I’m watching...
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The Diff
AI Assistants Will Be Great (Especially for the Biggest Companies) Plus! Short Selling; Crypto Treasury Gresham's Law; The Joy of Higher Rates; Labor Substitution;...
3 weeks ago
15

AI Assistants Will Be Great (Especially for the Biggest Companies)

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Plus! Short Selling; Crypto Treasury Gresham's Law; The Joy of Higher Rates; Labor Substitution; Pricing Black Swans
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Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory always...
3 weeks ago
12

Housing Feb 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.8% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. Inventory is now up 1.3% from the bottom four weeks ago. Inventory has been little changed over...
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Commoncog
The Story of Samsung How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s...
3 weeks ago
16

The Story of Samsung

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s economy.
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Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up...
3 weeks ago
11

Sunday Night Futures

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 18 and DOW futures are up 88 (fair value). WTI futures at $71.00 per barrel and Brent at $74.66 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $83 - so WTI oil prices...
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Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 6% in January From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 6% in January The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI),...
3 weeks ago
12

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 6% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 6% in January The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 5.6% in January to 225.7 (2000=100) from the revised December reading of 213.6. Over the month, commercial planning increased 4.2% while...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. MBA:...
3 weeks ago
10

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread VC, Personal Finance, Careers, Hedge Funds, Hiring, Investing, Coase, Gates
3 weeks ago
12

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
VC, Personal Finance, Careers, Hedge Funds, Hiring, Investing, Coase, Gates
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Musings on Markets
Data Update 6 for 2025: From Macro to Micro - The Hurdle Rate Question! In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest...
3 weeks ago
8

Data Update 6 for 2025: From Macro to Micro - The Hurdle Rate Question!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. I spend most of my time in the far less rarefied air of corporate finance and valuation, where businesses try to decide...
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 The key reports this week are January CPI and Retail sales. ----- Monday, February 10th ----- No...
3 weeks ago
12

Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

3 weeks ago
The key reports this week are January CPI and Retail sales. ----- Monday, February 10th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, February 11th ----- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January. Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual...
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Calculated Risk
February 7th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 weeks ago
12

February 7th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in January; Up 0.8% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in January Wholesale...
4 weeks ago
9

Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in January; Up 0.8% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in January Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) moved 0.4% higher in January compared to December, causing the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) to increase...
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Calculated Risk
Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate...
4 weeks ago
10

Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap There...
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Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
4 weeks ago
10

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
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The Diff
De-Risking The 11-Figure Bets Plus! Thematic ETFs; Event-Driven Ads; Lagging Demand; Implementation; Labor Price Discrimination
4 weeks ago
10

De-Risking The 11-Figure Bets

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Plus! Thematic ETFs; Event-Driven Ads; Lagging Demand; Implementation; Labor Price Discrimination
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Calculated Risk
Comments on January Employment Report The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November...
4 weeks ago
11

Comments on January Employment Report

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to...
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Calculated Risk
January Employment Report: 143 thousand Jobs, 4.0% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and...
4 weeks ago
12

January Employment Report: 143 thousand Jobs, 4.0% Unemployment Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, retail trade, and social assistance....
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
4 weeks ago
11

Friday: Employment Report

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 170,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for...
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Calculated Risk
Predicting the Next Recession Over a decade ago, in 2013, I wrote a post "Predicting the Next Recession. That post was in...
4 weeks ago
10

Predicting the Next Recession

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Over a decade ago, in 2013, I wrote a post "Predicting the Next Recession. That post was in response to several recession forecasts (that were incorrect). • "An exogenous event such as a pandemic, significant military conflict, disruption of energy supplies for any reason, a...
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Mazdak
The 5-Step Blueprint to Achieve Financial Independence Imagine waking up every morning with the freedom to choose what you want to do—not because you have...
4 weeks ago
14

The 5-Step Blueprint to Achieve Financial Independence

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Imagine waking up every morning with the freedom to choose what you want to do—not because you have to work for money, but because you want to.
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Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a small world, after all! If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one...
4 weeks ago
7

Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a small world, after all!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one that I have taken hundreds of times, first with my own children and more recently, with my grandchildren. It is a mainstay of every Disney theme park, from the original Disneyland...
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Calculated Risk
January Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is...
4 weeks ago
11

January Employment Preview

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is for 170,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. IMPORTANT NOTE: For the household survey, new population controls will be used - and this will boost...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Crises Yet to Come "Controlling the narrative" to justify destabilizing asymmetries won't change the consequences. ...
4 weeks ago
6

The Crises Yet to Come

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
"Controlling the narrative" to justify destabilizing asymmetries won't change the consequences. That the Trump Reformation / Counter-Reformation is disrupting various nodes of the status quo is viewed as an existential crise by many. The choice between Reformation /...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly...
4 weeks ago
12

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2024 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential...
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Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 3.4% Year-over-year in December Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for December. The recent Case-Shiller index...
4 weeks ago
11

CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 3.4% Year-over-year in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for December. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for November. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Ticks Up Slightly in December • The...
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 11,000 from the...
4 weeks ago
13

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 207,000 to 208,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750, an increase of 4,000 from the...
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The Diff
Short-Term Discretionary Traders Are Unusually Automatable Plus! Dimensions of Competition; Jurisdiction; Streaming Fragmentation; Diversification; Twitter...
4 weeks ago
10

Short-Term Discretionary Traders Are Unusually Automatable

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

4 weeks ago
Plus! Dimensions of Competition; Jurisdiction; Streaming Fragmentation; Diversification; Twitter Debt, After All
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
12

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 214 thousand from 207 thousand last week.
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Mazdak
DeepSeek Ban in Australian, Google Reverses Stance on AI Weaponization, ... 1.
a month ago
10

DeepSeek Ban in Australian, Google Reverses Stance on AI Weaponization, ...

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
1.
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Citation Needed
Issue 76 – Tripartisan legislation Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and...
a month ago
15

Issue 76 – Tripartisan legislation

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and enforcement is sidelined.
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Calculated Risk
The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales An update: The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light...
a month ago
10

The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
An update: The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light trucks and SUVs) through January 2025. Click on graph for larger image. Over time the mix has changed toward more and more light trucks and SUVs.  Only when oil prices are high, does...
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Mazdak
Google Releases Gemini 2.0 Flash Google is making bold moves in the AI space with the release of Gemini 2.0, a series of advanced AI...
a month ago
12

Google Releases Gemini 2.0 Flash

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Google is making bold moves in the AI space with the release of Gemini 2.0, a series of advanced AI models designed to challenge industry leaders like OpenAI, Microsoft, Meta, and Anthropic.
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Calculated Risk
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt:...
a month ago
10

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.5% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index ticked up to 6.9...
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Commoncog
The Study of Asian Tycoons What can we learn from the study of Asian conglomerates, and the small group of tycoons that control...
a month ago
13

The Study of Asian Tycoons

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
What can we learn from the study of Asian conglomerates, and the small group of tycoons that control them?
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Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Decreases to 52.8% in January (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The...
a month ago
11

ISM® Services Index Decreases to 52.8% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The employment index increased to 52.3%, from 51.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 52.8% January 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
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Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $98.4 Billion in December The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
a month ago
9

Trade Deficit increased to $98.4 Billion in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $98.4 billion in December, up $19.5 billion from $78.9 billion in November, revised. ...
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Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 183,000 in January From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in...
a month ago
8

ADP: Private Employment Increased 183,000 in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in January; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Consumer-facing...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increased in Weekly Survey; Purchase Applications Declined From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a month ago
11

MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increased in Weekly Survey; Purchase Applications Declined

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 31, 2025....
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM Services Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a month ago
10

Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM Services

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in January, up...
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Calculated Risk
U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increase 14 Percent in 2024; 33% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Rise 14.2 Percent Total bankruptcy filings rose 14.2...
a month ago
12

U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increase 14 Percent in 2024; 33% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Rise 14.2 Percent Total bankruptcy filings rose 14.2 percent, with increases in both business and non-business bankruptcies, in the twelve-month period ending Dec. 31, 2024. This continues an ongoing rebound in filings after more than a...
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Moneyness
Trump claims US banks can't open in Canada—US banks disagree In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained...
a month ago
8

Trump claims US banks can't open in Canada—US banks disagree

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
In what seems to be an effort to extort Canada for additional benefits, Donald Trump complained yesterday on social media that CANADA DOESN'T EVEN ALLOW U.S. BANKS TO OPEN OR DO BUSINESS THERE. And so according to Trump, Canada doubly deserves to be disciplined with...
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Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Increased 5% YoY in January This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
a month ago
12

Heavy Truck Sales Increased 5% YoY in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the January 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 534 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
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Mazdak
LinkedIn Goes All In on Vertical Video For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form...
a month ago
13

LinkedIn Goes All In on Vertical Video

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form video space.
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Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
a month ago
10

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in December was 0.59%, up from 0.56% November. Freddie's rate is up...
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The Diff
AI Interfaces Engineer Serendipity Plus! Third-Order Consequences; A Sovereign Wealth Fund; Artificial Celebrities; Don't Call It...
a month ago
13

AI Interfaces Engineer Serendipity

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Third-Order Consequences; A Sovereign Wealth Fund; Artificial Celebrities; Don't Call It Sports Betting; Retaliatory Tariffs
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Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.6 million in December From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 7.6...
a month ago
12

BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.6 million in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 7.6 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations were little changed at 5.5 million...
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FIRE v London
My exits – a post mortem Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but...
a month ago
16

My exits – a post mortem

from FIRE v London [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks. Lord, make me passive, but not yet Rather like The Investor at Monevator, I firmly believe in the merits of low cost index tracking as an investment strategy, but I also enjoy the thrills / intellectual...
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Flat Despite Underlying Market...
a month ago
12

Tuesday: Job Openings

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Flat Despite Underlying Market Volatility We know that mortgage rates are driven by financial markets and we know that financial markets have experienced volatility amid the roll-out of new tariffs over the weekend....
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oftwominds-Charles...
Lots of Solutions, But for Which Problems? If the "solutions" being offered are features of self-liquidating systems, they aren't solutions,...
a month ago
7

Lots of Solutions, But for Which Problems?

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
If the "solutions" being offered are features of self-liquidating systems, they aren't solutions, they're problems. Problems, problems, problems. No worries, we have solutions. Solutions abound, but the question is: are they actually resolving the core problems, or are...
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Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Decrease to 15.60 million SAAR in January Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales...
a month ago
10

Vehicles Sales Decrease to 15.60 million SAAR in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Start 2025 With 4% Increase in January (pay site). There did not appear to be an end-of-month boost in demand, either as a rebound from the mid-month weather-related losses or...
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Calculated Risk
Fed January SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate From the Federal Reserve: The January 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending...
a month ago
14

Fed January SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the Federal Reserve: The January 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The January 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses...
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Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011” Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth...
a month ago
13

ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011”

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011” Brief excerpt: Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the...
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The Diff
The Bid/Ask Spread for Top Talent Plus! De Minimis; ARR; Jurisdictions; Forward-Deployed Engineers; Software and Hardware; Diff Jobs
a month ago
12

The Bid/Ask Spread for Top Talent

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! De Minimis; ARR; Jurisdictions; Forward-Deployed Engineers; Software and Hardware; Diff Jobs
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Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Increased 0.5% in December From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending...
a month ago
10

Construction Spending Increased 0.5% in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during December 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.2 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised November estimate of $2,180.3 billion. The December...
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Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 50.9% in January (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.9%...
a month ago
10

ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 50.9% in January

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.9% in January, up from 49.2% in December. The employment index was at 50.3%, up from 45.4% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 55.1%, up from 52.1%. Manufacturing PMI®...
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Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 27.7% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always...
a month ago
12

Housing Feb 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 27.7% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. Inventory is now up 1.7% from the bottom three weeks ago. If three weeks ago was the seasonal...
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Calculated Risk
Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is...
a month ago
11

Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.5, up from 49.3 in December. Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending. Light vehicle sales for...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Begging Bowl '25: I'm Looking for Two Readers Willing to Help Me Buy a New Thrift-Store Shirt The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's...
a month ago
6

Begging Bowl '25: I'm Looking for Two Readers Willing to Help Me Buy a New Thrift-Store Shirt

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's the goal of my work. I admire unvarnished honesty, which is scarce. And like everything else that's increasingly scarce, it behooves us to hoard our stash. In the unvarnished...
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balajis.com
Network School Curriculum Topics, reading, and speakers.
a month ago
16

Network School Curriculum

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Topics, reading, and speakers.
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balajis.com
Network School 2025 Network School reopens March 1 with double the capacity. Apply now at ns.com.
a month ago
29

Network School 2025

from balajis.com [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Network School reopens March 1 with double the capacity. Apply now at ns.com.
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.4% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 January As expected with the MLK Day holiday, the...
a month ago
14

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.4% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 January As expected with the MLK Day holiday, the U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 25 January. ... 119-25 January 2025 (percentage change from comparable week...
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Commoncog
The Gambling King The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling...
a month ago
18

The Gambling King

from Commoncog [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling king of Macau.
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Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 6% YoY This might be something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL...
a month ago
12

Update: Lumber Prices Up 6% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
This might be something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August...
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
a month ago
12

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Radio, Startups, History, Bally's, Dead Internet, Caesars
a month ago
16

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Radio, Startups, History, Bally's, Dead Internet, Caesars
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade...
a month ago
13

Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade deficit​. ----- Monday, February 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.5, up from 49.3 in December. 10:00 AM:...
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Calculated Risk
January 31st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
20

January 31st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
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Mazdak
OpenAI Launches o3-mini: A Faster, More Affordable AI Reasoning Model OpenAI has just unveiled o3-mini, the latest addition to its "reasoning" model family.
a month ago
13

OpenAI Launches o3-mini: A Faster, More Affordable AI Reasoning Model

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
OpenAI has just unveiled o3-mini, the latest addition to its "reasoning" model family.
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Calculated Risk
Initial Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-high 2% Range From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)...
a month ago
16

Initial Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-high 2% Range

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate at +2.3%. We launched our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate at +2.3%, in line with the advance reading. [Jan 31st estimate] emphasis...
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Musings on Markets
DeepSeek crashes the AI Party: Story Break, Change or Shift? I am going to start this post with a confession that my knowledge of the architecture and mechanics...
a month ago
9

DeepSeek crashes the AI Party: Story Break, Change or Shift?

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
I am going to start this post with a confession that my knowledge of the architecture and mechanics of AI are pedestrian and that there will be things that I don't get right in this post. That said, DeepSeek's abrupt entry into the AI conversation has the potential to change the...
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oftwominds-Charles...
AI Is a Digital Parrot: Word-Traps, False Logic and the Illusion of Intelligence Word traps and false logic don't lead to dominance of the future or monopolistic grips on limitless...
a month ago
6

AI Is a Digital Parrot: Word-Traps, False Logic and the Illusion of Intelligence

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Word traps and false logic don't lead to dominance of the future or monopolistic grips on limitless profits. The heart of the current euphoric expectations for AI is a simple but problematic proposition: the equivalence of function equals intelligence. If using natural...
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Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
a month ago
15

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.54% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
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The Diff
Capital-Intensity and Legibility Plus! AI as Half an Interface; Network Effects and Boycotts; OpenAI and Structure; Strategic...
a month ago
15

Capital-Intensity and Legibility

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! AI as Half an Interface; Network Effects and Boycotts; OpenAI and Structure; Strategic Reserves; Meta says Yes to Jevons
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Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.4% in December; Spending increased 0.7% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased...
a month ago
22

Personal Income increased 0.4% in December; Spending increased 0.7%

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $92.0 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in December, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income and Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
a month ago
10

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for December. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase...
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Calculated Risk
Las Vegas in 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 2.1% YoY; Convention Traffic Unchanged YoY From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: December 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Closing out the...
a month ago
16

Las Vegas in 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 2.1% YoY; Convention Traffic Unchanged YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: December 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Closing out the year with Dec visitation of 3.4M visitors (+0.2% YoY), Las Vegas hosted approx. 41.7M visitors for the year, up 2.1% from last year’s 40.8M visitors. emphasis added Click on graph...
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Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
18

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 5.5% in December; Down 5.0% Year-over-year From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Fell 5.5% in December Pending home sales retracted 5.5% in December...
a month ago
13

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 5.5% in December; Down 5.0% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Fell 5.5% in December Pending home sales retracted 5.5% in December – following four consecutive months of increases – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions experienced month-over-month losses in transactions,...
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The Diff
Test-Time Compute Scaling Drives the AI Jevons Paradox Plus! AI Price Discrimination; Openness; Disclosure; Arbitrage; Meta
a month ago
17

Test-Time Compute Scaling Drives the AI Jevons Paradox

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! AI Price Discrimination; Openness; Disclosure; Arbitrage; Meta
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Calculated Risk
BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.3% Annualized Rate in Q4 From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Advance Estimate) Real gross...
a month ago
13

BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.3% Annualized Rate in Q4

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S....
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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 207,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
a month ago
14

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 207,000

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
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Calculated Risk
Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Gross Domestic...
a month ago
14

Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and Year 2024 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.6% annualized in Q4. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released....
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Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
a month ago
12

FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The AI Fad Just Burned to the Waterline Sometimes wide moats and billions of dollars to blow lead not to glory but to hubris, which beckons...
a month ago
6

The AI Fad Just Burned to the Waterline

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Sometimes wide moats and billions of dollars to blow lead not to glory but to hubris, which beckons Nemesis. While everyone was busy reassuring themselves the stock market was still A-OK, the driver of the market--the AI fad--just burned to the waterline. Yes, the current...
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Mazdak
U.S. Copyright Office Rules on AI: What It Means for Creators and Businesses Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming creative industries, but it has also raised serious...
a month ago
16

U.S. Copyright Office Rules on AI: What It Means for Creators and Businesses

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming creative industries, but it has also raised serious legal and ethical questions.
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Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.8% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below...
a month ago
13

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.8% below 2022 peak

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the November Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
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Mazdak
OpenAI vs. DeepSeek: The AI Arms Race Heats Up The battle for artificial intelligence supremacy has taken a new turn, and it’s raising major...
a month ago
23

OpenAI vs. DeepSeek: The AI Arms Race Heats Up

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The battle for artificial intelligence supremacy has taken a new turn, and it’s raising major concerns about intellectual property, competition, and the future of AI development.
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a month ago
12

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 24, 2025....
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Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Statement Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a month ago
16

Wednesday: FOMC Statement

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
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oftwominds-Charles...
Welcome to the DeepSeek Disruption (DSD) In summary: bloated headcounts, no new sources of revenue from AI, and limitless content with no...
a month ago
6

Welcome to the DeepSeek Disruption (DSD)

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
In summary: bloated headcounts, no new sources of revenue from AI, and limitless content with no scarcity value. Welcome to the DSD: DeepSeek Disruption. I've been fruitfully engaged in a lively dialog with readers on my Substack regarding my post yesterday Is DeepSeek a...
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Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2025: Interest Rates, Inflation and Central Banks! It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more...
a month ago
6

Data Update 4 for 2025: Interest Rates, Inflation and Central Banks!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more evidence on the limited power that central banks have to alter the trajectory of market interest rates. We started 2024 with the consensus wisdom that rates would drop during the year,...
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Calculated Risk
MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024 From the MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024...
a month ago
11

MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024 Delinquency rates for mortgages backed by commercial properties increased during the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest commercial real...
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The Diff
There is an "AI Factor," and It's Worth Hedging Plus! Sweeteners; The American Difference; AI Experiments; Media Relations; Sanctions are Hard,...
a month ago
12

There is an "AI Factor," and It's Worth Hedging

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Sweeteners; The American Difference; AI Experiments; Media Relations; Sanctions are Hard, Continued
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
a month ago
84

Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing...
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Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month...
a month ago
14

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.8% Annual Gain in November 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
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Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Durable Goods, Case-Shiller House Prices From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Only Moderately Lower After Tech...
a month ago
13

Tuesday: Durable Goods, Case-Shiller House Prices

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Only Moderately Lower After Tech Rout Even though there is some uncertainty about the near-term Fed rate outlook and even though we have a Fed meeting coming up on Wednesday, today was all about conventional wisdom for...
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Citation Needed
Trump’s Project 2025 ghostwriters Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked...
a month ago
18

Trump’s Project 2025 ghostwriters

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked Trump devotees are writing policies at federal agencies.
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Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 6.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar...
a month ago
11

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 6.7% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 18 January. ... 12-18 January 2025 (percentage change from...
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate...
a month ago
10

Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 698 thousand. The previous three months were...
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The Diff
The New National Champions Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile;...
a month ago
17

The New National Champions

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile; Defense
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Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
a month ago
17

New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 698 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in December 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
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Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.7% Week-over-week, Up 26.5% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always...
a month ago
107

Housing Jan 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.7% Week-over-week, Up 26.5% Year-over-year

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If two weeks ago was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has...
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oftwominds-Charles...
Is DeepSeek a Sputnik Moment? I'm not sure that "software will eat the world," but it could consume the stock market bubble in a...
a month ago
7

Is DeepSeek a Sputnik Moment?

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
I'm not sure that "software will eat the world," but it could consume the stock market bubble in a single gulp. Is DeepSeek a Sputnik Moment? Let's break it down. The Soviet Union's October 1957 launch of the world's first artificial satellite, Sputnik 1, stunned the U.S.,...
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Calculated Risk
Monday: New Home Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. ...
a month ago
15

Monday: New Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is a composite index of other data. New Home Sales for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 670 thousand SAAR, up from 664 thousand in November. Dallas Fed...
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Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2025: The times they are a'changin'! In my first two data posts for 2025, I looked at the strong year that US equities had in 2024, but a...
a month ago
8

Data Update 3 for 2025: The times they are a'changin'!

from Musings on Markets [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
In my first two data posts for 2025, I looked at the strong year that US equities had in 2024, but a very good year for the overall market does not always translate into equivalent returns across segments of the market. In this post, I will remain focused on US equities, but I...
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Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: No Change to Policy Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at...
a month ago
18

FOMC Preview: No Change to Policy

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to be on hold at the January, March and May meetings, with the next rate cut in May. From BofA: We...
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Calculated Risk
January 25th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. SPECIAL NOTE:...
a month ago
13

January 25th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. SPECIAL NOTE: The CDC has stopped releasing health data (hopefully temporarily). For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised...
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Mazdak
How DeepSeek, a Chinese AI Startup, is Challenging the Titans of Silicon Valley In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western...
a month ago
21

How DeepSeek, a Chinese AI Startup, is Challenging the Titans of Silicon Valley

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western giants like OpenAI, Google, and Meta.
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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
a month ago
18

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in...
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The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Tech Right, 10 bits, Smart Screens, AI, Gambling, Memes, Soviet Magic
a month ago
14

Longreads + Open Thread

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Tech Right, 10 bits, Smart Screens, AI, Gambling, Memes, Soviet Magic
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Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales,...
a month ago
15

Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales, December Personal Income and Outlays and November Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, January 27th ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is...
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Moneyness
Is it better to bribe Trump by purchasing his memecoin or his stock? Noah Smith writes a provocative article about memecoins as a novel mechanism for bribery payments. A...
a month ago
7

Is it better to bribe Trump by purchasing his memecoin or his stock?

from Moneyness [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Noah Smith writes a provocative article about memecoins as a novel mechanism for bribery payments. A foreign dignitary looking to gain influence over Donald Trump would like to pay him a giant bribe, but doing so directly is prohibited by all sort of laws. Luckily, Trump has just...
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Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.3% to 3.0% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up two-tenths...
a month ago
19

Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.3% to 3.0% Range

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar. [Jan 24th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final sales estimates unchanged, each at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter...
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Bits about Money
A very Chicago gamble Chicago and Bally's have teamed up in an investment offering.
a month ago
21

A very Chicago gamble

from Bits about Money [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Chicago and Bally's have teamed up in an investment offering.
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Calculated Risk
January Vehicle Forecast: Sales Decline to 15.6 million SAAR, Up 4% YoY From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay...
a month ago
15

January Vehicle Forecast: Sales Decline to 15.6 million SAAR, Up 4% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay content).  Brief excerpt: While demand in the middle of the month was negatively impacted by extreme weather conditions across most of the country, with a week remaining in January...
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Citation Needed
Issue 75 – Absolutely preposterous Trump horrifies even some of his crypto-steeped fans by launching a memecoin before his...
a month ago
22

Issue 75 – Absolutely preposterous

from Citation Needed [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Trump horrifies even some of his crypto-steeped fans by launching a memecoin before his inauguration, and a flurry of activity from the new administration signals what’s in store for the crypto world in the next four years.
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The Diff
Venture Global as a Well-Structured Trade Plus! Agents; Capital Returns; Creator Underwriting; Crypto Plays; Airlines
a month ago
19

Venture Global as a Well-Structured Trade

from The Diff [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Plus! Agents; Capital Returns; Creator Underwriting; Crypto Plays; Airlines
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Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24...
a month ago
13

Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Sales in December (4.24 million SAAR) were up 2.2% from the previous month and were 9.3% above the December 2023 sales rate. This was the third consecutive...
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Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December,...
a month ago
67

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and slipped in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales accelerated in all four...
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Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Inbound Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in December Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
a month ago
15

LA Ports: Inbound Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
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Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
a month ago
162

Friday: Existing Home Sales

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
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Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 25.1% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a month ago
14

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 25.1% YoY

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For December, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 22.0% YoY, but still down 15.7% compared to the 2017 to...
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oftwominds-Charles...
The Power of Our Behavior Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are...
a month ago
7

The Power of Our Behavior

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are necessary to consequentially reduce consumption? When we think of the word power, we associate it with external forces: energy, technology, the government, etc. But our own...
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Mazdak
OpenAI Launches Operator: The AI Agent That Works Autonomously (Why this could be the start of a new era for AI tools)
a month ago
19

OpenAI Launches Operator: The AI Agent That Works Autonomously

from Mazdak [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
(Why this could be the start of a new era for AI tools)
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Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
11

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Here are a few more local markets before the NAR releases December Existing Home sales tomorrow, Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. This will be the 3rd...
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Calculated Risk
ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased 4% Year-over-year in December From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Ended 2024 on a Strong Note Despite...
a month ago
10

ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased 4% Year-over-year in December

from Calculated Risk [alt+shift+b] in finance

a month ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Ended 2024 on a Strong Note Despite Remaining Near a Three-Year High • The national delinquency rate eased 2 basis points (bps) to 3.72% in December, but rose 4.0% year over year – the seventh consecutive annual...
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