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Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 6% YoY This might be something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL...
7 months ago
41
7 months ago
This might be something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August...
Mazdak
Who Should You Ask for Feedback? Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new...
over a year ago
41
over a year ago
Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new ideas, and stay ahead of the competition. But not all feedback is created equal. If you want to get the most out of feedback, you need to ask the right people.
Mazdak
Can Google’s Gemini Overtake ChatGPT in the AI Race? Google’s Gemini, the tech giant’s flagship AI chatbot, has been making headlines lately.
7 months ago
Citation Needed
Trump’s newest grift: Building a cryptocurrency empire while destroying its regulators Inside the Trump family’s sprawling crypto empire — from memecoins to mining — and how Trump is...
4 months ago
47
4 months ago
Inside the Trump family’s sprawling crypto empire — from memecoins to mining — and how Trump is using presidential power to dismantle the regulators who could stop it
Mazdak
Mastering Twitter/X Growth: Strategies to Skyrocket Your Follower Count Twitter/X stands as one of the leading platforms for sharing ideas, connecting with others, and...
over a year ago
35
over a year ago
Twitter/X stands as one of the leading platforms for sharing ideas, connecting with others, and building your personal brand. With the right strategies, you can transform your Twitter presence into a thriving community of engaged followers. In this blog post, I'll dive into...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
7 months ago
41
7 months ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 698 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in December 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
Calculated Risk
Comments on February Employment Report The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and...
6 months ago
27
6 months ago
The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to...
balajis.com
Network School 2025 Network School reopens March 1 with double the capacity. Apply now at ns.com.
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Poor Weather Reduced Employment by About 90,000 in January The BLS reported 143 thousand non-farm jobs were added in January.   During the Winter months, I...
6 months ago
31
6 months ago
The BLS reported 143 thousand non-farm jobs were added in January.   During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report. The BLS reported 573 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. ...
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
a year ago
97
a year ago
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
Citation Needed
When did cryptocurrency policy become a voter issue? I don’t believe that it has.
a year ago
The Diff
Capital-Intensity and Legibility Plus! AI as Half an Interface; Network Effects and Boycotts; OpenAI and Structure; Strategic...
7 months ago
49
7 months ago
Plus! AI as Half an Interface; Network Effects and Boycotts; OpenAI and Structure; Strategic Reserves; Meta says Yes to Jevons
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Amazon’s Pricing Policies Promote Inflation The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when...
over a year ago
21
over a year ago
The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when 20 states joined the US Department of Justice to sue Microsoft. These cases revolve around whether consumers are harmed by the company’s actions. The case against Amazon focuses...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #206 The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of...
a year ago
143
a year ago
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of Silicon Valley, Self-esteem and outer scorecards, MMT's founder is worried about deficits
oftwominds-Charles...
The Stoicism of the Caregiver These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of...
6 months ago
43
6 months ago
These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of caregiving don't get much attention. They're not part of the news flow, and the day-to-day grind of caregiving doesn't lend itself to the self-promotional zeitgeist of social media....
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
7 months ago
31
7 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
oftwominds-Charles...
Automation Institutionalizes Mediocrity Meanwhile, in the lived-in world, our quality of life is unraveling in myriad ways as...
6 months ago
35
6 months ago
Meanwhile, in the lived-in world, our quality of life is unraveling in myriad ways as algorithmically-driven under-competence and mediocrity are now the norm. When deployed by monopolies / cartels, automation institutionalizes mediocrity, and soon everyone forgets...
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 12% YoY in March: Lowest since May 2020 This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March...
5 months ago
44
5 months ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 403 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to...
balajis.com
Only Newsom Can Go To China If Nixon and Mao came to an accord, so might Newsom and Xi.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.4% in December On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and...
7 months ago
34
7 months ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from December 2023. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Citation Needed
Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely...
a year ago
123
a year ago
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely prohibited from making its $25 million contribution to the Fairshake crypto super PAC in May 2024.
Citation Needed
“Wait, not like that”: Free and open access in the age of generative AI The real threat isn’t AI using open knowledge — it’s AI companies killing the projects that make...
5 months ago
The Diff
Filling Out Forms is Corvée Labor Plus! The Real News Business; Credit, Wealth, and Risk-Adjusted Returns; Less-Than-Truckload; Capex;...
6 months ago
35
6 months ago
Plus! The Real News Business; Credit, Wealth, and Risk-Adjusted Returns; Less-Than-Truckload; Capex; Bundling and Scale; Diff Jobs
FIRE v London
In praise of Berkshire Hathaway I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the...
a year ago
154
a year ago
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the year 2000. I loved the story. Starting from, as the story was told back then, humble beginnings and a paper round, Warren Buffett (and Charlie – who I will stop mentioning but...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Richmond Fed...
8 months ago
55
8 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week...
8 months ago
47
8 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. In fact, on a few...
Mazdak
How to Start a Cleaning Company Without Cleaning The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion...
over a year ago
36
over a year ago
The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion by 2026. This growth is being driven by a number of factors, including the increasing number of dual-income households, the growing popularity of Airbnb, and the rising demand for...
Commoncog
What’s an Operational Definition Anyway? Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most...
a year ago
80
a year ago
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most principles in SPC, this is both simpler and more important than you might think.
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
a year ago
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
over a year ago
94
over a year ago
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
The Rational Walk
The Trust Deficit My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the...
a year ago
117
a year ago
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the urgent need to correct course.
The Diff
Pathologically High-Margin Businesses Plus! Change My View; Capital Structure; Artificial Sycophancy; Elasticity; Internalizing...
4 months ago
Molson Hart's Blog -...
The Fiacracy; A Mental Model for Modern Government This article will explain the following: 1. What is a Fiacracy 2. How do Fiacracies NOT work 3. How...
a year ago
36
a year ago
This article will explain the following: 1. What is a Fiacracy 2. How do Fiacracies NOT work 3. How Fiacracies work 4. Are Fiacracies sustainable 5. Why Fiacracies matter 1. What is a fiacracy? It’s government by fiat (money). The driving mechanism by which it works is not...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #192 Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS,...
a year ago
127
a year ago
Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS, The bear case for China, Chris Davis, Michael Mauboussin
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Annual Report My thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual report and Warren Buffett's letter to shareholders.
6 months ago
oftwominds-Charles...
Begging Bowl '25: I'm Looking for Two Readers Willing to Help Me Buy a New Thrift-Store Shirt The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's...
7 months ago
27
7 months ago
The goal is to move incrementally toward a kind of happiness that actually makes us happy. That's the goal of my work. I admire unvarnished honesty, which is scarce. And like everything else that's increasingly scarce, it behooves us to hoard our stash. In the unvarnished...
Bits about Money
The business of wallets How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
a year ago
119
a year ago
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Education, Auto Theft, Optimizers, AI, Energy, Financial Engineering, Deep Research
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
4 months ago
40
4 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 20.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 4,...
Mazdak
Meta Fined & FBI on Polymarket Meta slapped with a HUGE EU fine, the FBI is investigating Polymarket...
9 months ago
Citation Needed
Video: The charges against Binance In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant...
a year ago
115
a year ago
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant Binance and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, I started writing up an overview of everything that had happened to the company over the past few years. I'd written separately about a...
Calculated Risk
NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter" Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions...
7 months ago
36
7 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter" From the NMHC: Apartment Market Experiences Loosening Conditions, Decreased Deal Flow and Less Available Financing to Start the New Year Apartment...
The Rational Walk
The Odyssey Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
a year ago
156
a year ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Services Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
5 months ago
25
5 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 224 thousand last week. Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. The...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #212 Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates,...
a year ago
108
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates, Competing in Search, The American Dream, Li Lu, Deep Dive into AI, The Impact of Debt, and more ...
The Diff
MNTN Scales the Small-Scale Advertiser Plus! Liquidity; Monetizing AI; Regulatory Arbitrages; Bundling, Unbundling, and Temporarily...
5 months ago
40
5 months ago
Plus! Liquidity; Monetizing AI; Regulatory Arbitrages; Bundling, Unbundling, and Temporarily Rebundling; Competing for Capital
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
over a year ago
36
over a year ago
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average...
8 months ago
48
8 months ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.6% Annual Gain in October 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
The Diff
eToro: Twitch Plays the Market Plus! OpenAI; Open AI; Supply Chains and Self-Tariffing; Surface Area; Secrets
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)...
4 months ago
35
4 months ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 724 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in March 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 724,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S....