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The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire...
a year ago
69
a year ago
The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices was not a party to the agreement but its business model will still be affected.
Moneyness
"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did." Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases...
a year ago
20
a year ago
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases wend their way through courts in the Netherlands and the U.S., we continue to learn how society's money laundering laws will be applied to some of the more unique financial...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 6.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar...
7 months ago
38
7 months ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 18 January. ... 12-18 January 2025 (percentage change from...
The Diff
Does VIX Have Fundamentals? Plus! Customer Service; Latency; Corp Dev.; Scavengers; Broken Windows
4 months ago
The Diff
You Can't Measure AI Market Share Because it Lives at too Many Layers Plus! Moderation; Unavoidable Timing; Sad AIs; Friendshoring
4 months ago
Mazdak
Elon Musk Lashes Out at Advertisers Leaving X ⚡️ Musk's Fiery Response to Advertiser Exodus 💥 "Go Fk Yourself," Musk Says to Advertisers** 🚀 X...
a year ago
55
a year ago
⚡️ Musk's Fiery Response to Advertiser Exodus 💥 "Go Fk Yourself," Musk Says to Advertisers** 🚀 X CEO Defiant Amidst Advertising Boycott In a fiery exchange at the 2023 DealBook Summit in New York, Elon Musk unleashed a barrage of profanity at advertisers who have pulled their...
Moneyness
Trump-proofing Canada means ditching MasterCard and Visa We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore,...
5 months ago
59
5 months ago
We're all busy doing our best to boycott U.S. products. I can't buy Special K cereal anymore, because it's made in the U.S. by Kellogg's. But I'm still buying Shreddies, which is made in Niagara Falls, Ontario. Even that's a grey area, since Shreddies is owned by Post, a big...
Mazdak
Amazon Glasses: Seeing the Future of Delivery Amazon is developing smart glasses for their delivery drivers to navigate routes, locate packages,...
9 months ago
55
9 months ago
Amazon is developing smart glasses for their delivery drivers to navigate routes, locate packages, and even take photos of deliveries as proof for customers.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly Sideways Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70%...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Q4 NY Fed...
6 months ago
35
6 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Part 2:...
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
over a year ago
36
over a year ago
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides,...
11 months ago
47
11 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides, Sophocles, Persian Fire, Hillbilly Elegy, and more.
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million...
6 months ago
25
6 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in January were below expectations; however, starts in November and December were revised up. Total starts were down 0.7%...
The Rational Walk
Donald Trump’s Resounding Victory Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable...
10 months ago
71
10 months ago
Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable majority in the electoral college but a likely majority in the national popular vote as well.
Mazdak
Manus: The AI Agent That Could Change Everything On March 6, the global AI landscape shifted.
6 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #170 The Precautionary Principle, GEICO Layoffs, Superlinear Returns, TIPS for Retirement, Rockefeller's...
a year ago
82
a year ago
The Precautionary Principle, GEICO Layoffs, Superlinear Returns, TIPS for Retirement, Rockefeller's advice to his son, Impact of GLP-1 agonists, Tesla's IPO, Conference call transcripts, and more ...
Calculated Risk
Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is...
6 months ago
34
6 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.  Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending. Light vehicle sales for...
Calculated Risk
Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
8 months ago
44
8 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦) Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
a year ago
97
a year ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
Mazdak
Meta's AI & Reuters: A New Era of News? Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading...
10 months ago
44
10 months ago
Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading global news provider, to bring real-time news updates directly to users through Meta's AI chatbot.
Citation Needed
The Tornado Cash case: When politics sabotage a prosecution The Trump administration’s regulatory whiplash has left prosecutors scrambling with misattributed...
a month ago
21
a month ago
The Trump administration’s regulatory whiplash has left prosecutors scrambling with misattributed chat messages and questionable victim testimony
The Diff
MNTN Scales the Small-Scale Advertiser Plus! Liquidity; Monetizing AI; Regulatory Arbitrages; Bundling, Unbundling, and Temporarily...
5 months ago
40
5 months ago
Plus! Liquidity; Monetizing AI; Regulatory Arbitrages; Bundling, Unbundling, and Temporarily Rebundling; Competing for Capital
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
5 months ago
38
5 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 21,...
The Rational Walk
The Trust Deficit My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the...
a year ago
117
a year ago
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the urgent need to correct course.
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024 Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025. ----- Monday, December 30th ----- 9:45 AM:...
8 months ago
44
8 months ago
Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025. ----- Monday, December 30th ----- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity...
The Rational Walk
The Magic of Compounding The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my...
a year ago
128
a year ago
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my current net worth.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
15 mental Abilities & Traits Which Make You Successful But Are Not on an IQ Test 1. Empathy 2. Dexterity 3. Persuasion 4. Musicality 5. Confidence 6. Ambition 7. Grit 8....
a year ago
22
a year ago
1. Empathy 2. Dexterity 3. Persuasion 4. Musicality 5. Confidence 6. Ambition 7. Grit 8. Creativity 9. Flexibility 10. Energy 11. Individualism 12. Willpower 13. Stoicisim 14. Objectivity 15. Allure
FIRE v London
10 year review Wahoop! I have made it through ten years. In fact, I’ve had a trackable portfolio for over 20 years....
over a year ago
77
over a year ago
Wahoop! I have made it through ten years. In fact, I’ve had a trackable portfolio for over 20 years. But 10 years ago I started tracking my portfolio in a consistent, monthly way – unitising its performance so I could measure its return. It wasn’t until 2015 that I started this...
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not? Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
over a year ago
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 2 Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto...
a year ago
45
a year ago
Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto insurance business as well as nearly bankrupting GEICO.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 3 This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
124
a year ago
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. The MNIST dataset is the “hello world” of machine learning, containing images of handwritten digits that are used to train machine learning models. It...
Mazdak
The Rollercoaster Ride of Long-Term Rates: What it Means for You and the Economy Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that...
a year ago
53
a year ago
Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that had everyone from policymakers to financial analysts glued to their screens? Well, guess what? It's mostly reversed! What does this mean? In a nutshell, it means a sigh of relief...
Commoncog
Charlie Munger’s Supply Demand Curve Puzzle What a puzzle from Charlie Munger tells us about a supply-side business model with unreasonably high...
a year ago
Mazdak
Google & Microsoft $1M donation to Trump inauguration fund, Microsoft job cuts, Amazon ad business... Google, Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI, and even Tim Cook are each donating $1M to President-elect Trump’s...
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Decreases to 52.8% in January (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The...
7 months ago
42
7 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The employment index increased to 52.3%, from 51.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 52.8% January 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
Mazdak
Big Tech Ad Boom Tech giants are raking in cash as the digital ad market explodes!
10 months ago
Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
a year ago
127
a year ago
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
Calculated Risk
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 45 States in February (3-Month Basis) From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in...
4 months ago
29
4 months ago
From the Philly Fed: Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in three states, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 84. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 38 states, decreased in six states, and...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #222 Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online...
10 months ago
73
10 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online Speech, Price Controls, Shakespeare's Caesar, Musk and SpaceX, Micro-Cap Investing
oftwominds-Charles...
The Global Trade Game: Jokers Are Wild There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome....
5 months ago
37
5 months ago
There may be no winners of the game of Global Domination (tm), and that is likely the best outcome. Okay, players: jokers are wild, but with a twist: the entire deck is jokers. Since everyone at the table will have five Aces, nobody wins. Welcome to the Trade War Poker...
Commoncog
Eric Nehrlich on the Art of Executive Coaching and Forecasting Cedric talks to Eric Nehrlich about driving down the error rate for Google's revenue forecasting...
over a year ago
41
over a year ago
Cedric talks to Eric Nehrlich about driving down the error rate for Google's revenue forecasting from 10-20% down to 0.5%, his approach to executive coaching, and how to come up with small experiments for personal growth.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
8 months ago
60
8 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November, up 3.3% from October’s preliminary pace and up 4.6% from...
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage...
6 months ago
30
6 months ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.47% of servicers’ portfolio...
Mazdak
Inflation is Cooling Off: A Glimpse of Economic Stability ☀️ 📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic....
a year ago
54
a year ago
📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic. The moderation of inflation is a significant development that alleviates pressure on consumers and provides central banks with some breathing room. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's...
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in 2024, Intermodal Up From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts...
7 months ago
38
7 months ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. For the full year 2024, total U.S. carloads were 11.34 million, down 2.9% (343,156 carloads) from 2023 and down 2.3% (265,491 carloads) from 2022. ... Carloads...
Seeking Wisdom
How a Machine Learns – Part 2 I’m truly impressed by how accurately LLMs grasp natural language and consistently provide spot-on...
a year ago
52
a year ago
I’m truly impressed by how accurately LLMs grasp natural language and consistently provide spot-on answers. Through these posts, I’ll build a toy GPT from scratch using Python and unpack everything that goes inside the LLMs, including the math it uses. This is my third post on my...
Mazdak
5 Must-Read Finance Books for Building Wealth
over a year ago
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.4% in December; Spending increased 0.7% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased...
7 months ago
49
7 months ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $92.0 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in December, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal...
Citation Needed
Issue 69 – Nice Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also,...
10 months ago
81
10 months ago
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also, election spending hits a fever pitch, with several new crypto PACs coming out of the woodwork.