The Rational Walk
The Theban Plays
The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot...
2 months ago
The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot has captivated audiences for nearly 2,500 years.
Mazdak
Canadian Mortgage Debt Growth Slows to Two-Decade Low, But Remains Elevated
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to...
a year ago
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to data from the Bank of Canada (BoC). However, mortgage debt growth remains historically high, despite the recent slowdown. The BoC's latest data shows that outstanding mortgage...
Mazdak
Tech Titans: AI Race Heats Up!
We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial...
a month ago
We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial intelligence.
Mazdak
5 Must-Read Finance Books for Building Wealth
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.4% to 3.1%
From Goldman:
Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4%...
2 days ago
From Goldman:
Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3% [Dec 20th estimate]
emphasis added
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model...
Mazdak
Why 2024 will be the year of the Delivery Drone?
For years, drone delivery has hovered on the horizon, a tantalizing glimpse of a futuristic utopia...
11 months ago
For years, drone delivery has hovered on the horizon, a tantalizing glimpse of a futuristic utopia where packages pirouette through the air and land at our doorsteps with clockwork precision. But 2024 marks a pivotal juncture, a year where the sci-fi fantasy transforms into a...
Mazdak
Nvidia Takes the Crown: The AI Chip Giant Dethrones Apple
Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
a month ago
Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
----- Monday, December 23rd -----
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National...
yesterday
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
----- Monday, December 23rd -----
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data.
----- Tuesday, December 24th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November. The consensus is for a 0.4%...
The Rational Walk
The Limits of an Inner Scorecard
Having an "inner scorecard" can be liberating and foster independent thinking, but ultimately human...
a year ago
Having an "inner scorecard" can be liberating and foster independent thinking, but ultimately human beings must also subject themselves to the judgment of key people in their lives.
Mazdak
Trump's Antitrust Agenda: Big Tech in the Balance
Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
a month ago
Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
The Rational Walk
Thoughts on Israel’s 9/11
On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered a terrorist attack that took an estimated 1,200 lives, the vast...
a year ago
On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered a terrorist attack that took an estimated 1,200 lives, the vast majority of whom were civilians.
Farnam Street
Tit For Tat
Tit for tat is a strategy which, according to game theory, is the most effective choice for iterated...
over a year ago
Tit for tat is a strategy which, according to game theory, is the most effective choice for iterated games based on mutual cooperation or defection. Both players benefit if they cooperate, but one benefits and the other loses out if only they defect, and both lose out to a lesser...
Calculated Risk
Friday: No major economic releases scheduled
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Friday:
• No...
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Friday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.
Citation Needed
Businessweek: Crypto Got What It Wanted in November’s Election. Now What?
The industry is now in a position to weaken financial rules that might protect consumers from the...
5 days ago
The industry is now in a position to weaken financial rules that might protect consumers from the next crypto crash.
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
4 months ago
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
The Rational Walk
Paid Subscriptions
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
8 months ago
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
Mazdak
Big Tech Ad Boom
Tech giants are raking in cash as the digital ad market explodes!
a month ago
Tech giants are raking in cash as the digital ad market explodes!
Mazdak
Apple & Google Face Mounting Threats to $500 Billion Market
The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is...
a year ago
The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is facing a growing number of threats. A recent court ruling against Google and new regulations in Europe and Asia could force the two tech giants to open up their app stores to more...
Calculated Risk
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
A brief...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
A brief excerpt:
During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent...
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
9 months ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #157
Munger on windowless dorms, Damodaran on country risk, Disney's brand, Working without working, The...
a year ago
Munger on windowless dorms, Damodaran on country risk, Disney's brand, Working without working, The comfort crisis, Fairfax, Markel, Vision Pro's breakthrough, iPhone hacks
Commoncog
Under The Hood
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
a month ago
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
a year ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
Citation Needed
Issue 57 - I take deep breath and I get real high
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC...
7 months ago
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC is on a Wells notice bender.
The Rational Walk
My Years with General Motors
General Motors, under the leadership of Alfred P. Sloan, capitalized on the mistakes of Henry Ford...
a year ago
General Motors, under the leadership of Alfred P. Sloan, capitalized on the mistakes of Henry Ford in the 1920s to become the dominant American automaker.
Mazdak
Tech Today - Apple Smart Home Camera
Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
a month ago
Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
The Rational Walk
The Digest #159
Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning...
a year ago
Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning books, How Threads was built, BYD challenges Tesla, Katalin Karikó's inspiring life
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
23 hours ago
Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
The Rational Walk
Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of...
a year ago
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of the annual commitments pledged in 2006.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2024: Interest Rates in 2023 - A Rule-breaking Year!
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the...
11 months ago
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery. In this post, I look at interest rates,...
The Rational Walk
Inflation Expectations
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers...
9 months ago
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers should pay close attention to Warren Buffett's statements and actions.
Calculated Risk
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
A brief excerpt:
We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage...
Mazdak
DOJ Breaks Up Google, Elden Ring Sold, and Windows Goes Meta
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will...
a month ago
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will the internet ever be the same?
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried: guilty on all charges
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
a year ago
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
Mazdak
Today's Top Tech News - Amazon's Discount Store
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
a month ago
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
The Diff
Infrastructure on top of Infrastructure
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous...
5 days ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous Consumption Baskets as Subtle Union-Busting; Second-Order Effects
Moneyness
In praise of anti-money laundering thresholds
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money...
a year ago
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money laundering thresholds.
In the first story, the New York Times shows how regular folks are increasingly losing their bank accounts because their bank perceives them to be engaging in...
Citation Needed
25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious...
8 months ago
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious crime."
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
a year ago
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
Mazdak
Decentralization Debate: Unpacking Bluesky's Architecture
Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it...
3 weeks ago
Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it truly lives up to the hype.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 3
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. The MNIST dataset is the “hello world” of machine learning, containing images of handwritten digits that are used to train machine learning models. It...
Mazdak
Playing it Safe Paid Off in 2023, But Now It's Time to Take More Risk with Your Money
2023 was a year of playing it safe for investors, with many flocking to the security and guaranteed...
a year ago
2023 was a year of playing it safe for investors, with many flocking to the security and guaranteed returns of cash and cash-like investments. This was largely driven by the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, which boosted the yields of money-market funds and similar...
balajis.com
Decentralizing Education with Synthesis
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
over a year ago
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Meeting
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage...
4 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage purchase applications index.
Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.344 million SAAR, up from 1.311 million SAAR.
Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator...
FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
3 months ago
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
Mazdak
Meta Fined & FBI on Polymarket
Meta slapped with a HUGE EU fine, the FBI is investigating Polymarket...
a month ago
Meta slapped with a HUGE EU fine, the FBI is investigating Polymarket...
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence is FINALLY HERE! 🤯 What You NEED to Know! 🧠
Join us as we explore Apple's groundbreaking AI platform:
a month ago
Join us as we explore Apple's groundbreaking AI platform:
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2023: The Earnings Test
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to...
a year ago
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside. During the course of the year, investors also...
Mazdak
Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its...
10 months ago
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its acquisition of smart TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion. This deal is far more than just about TVs; it's a strategic play by Walmart to become a major force in the booming
Moneyness
Tornado Cash un-OFAC'ed
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado...
2 weeks ago
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado Cash, a bot that can be used for obfuscating crypto, is safe from being sanctioned.
I first wrote about Tornado Cash in 2021, before its legal troubles began, warning of the risks...
Calculated Risk
Census: The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024
From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades...
3 days ago
From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades
The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, according to the new Vintage 2024 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
As the nation’s...
Citation Needed
Issue 58 – Threats to the stability and integrity of Ethereum
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's...
7 months ago
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's creditors, and Biden threatens a crypto veto.
Commoncog
Dell's Capital Expertise
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at...
a year ago
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at capital allows you to make moves that aren't available to a novice business operator.
FIRE v London
May ’23: Magic megatech
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
a year ago
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
7 months ago
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
Musings on Markets
Fed up with Fed Talk? Fact-checking Central Banking Fairy Tales!
The big story on Wednesday, September 18, was that the Federal Reserve’s open market committee...
3 months ago
The big story on Wednesday, September 18, was that the Federal Reserve’s open market committee finally got around to “cutting rates”, and doing so by more than expected. This action, much debated and discussed during all of 2024, was greeted as "big" news, and market...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #181
Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò...
a year ago
Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò Machiavelli, internal vs. external goals, Safe withdrawal rates, Protecting your time
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Canvas
Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs...
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs of putting down his paintbrush anytime soon.
Mazdak
Free Press or Bezos Press? The Washington Post Stays Silent
This episode examines the Washington Post's controversial decision to no longer endorse presidential...
a month ago
This episode examines the Washington Post's controversial decision to no longer endorse presidential candidates, a move that has sparked outrage and accusations of cowardice, especially given the perceived threat to democracy posed by one of the candidates.
FIRE v London
Feb ’23: taking profits
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling...
a year ago
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling up again, post covid, though Mondays and Fridays remain subdued to put it mildly. Market movements in February In the markets, February started strongly, but then something...
Mazdak
Understanding Family Trusts in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide
What is a Family Trust?
2 weeks ago
Commoncog
What To Think When Looking at a Chart
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb...
a year ago
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb question that nobody seems to talk about.
Mazdak
Finance News Roundup - Wednesday, 29th November
😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire...
a year ago
😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and a close associate of Warren Buffett, has passed away at the age of 97. Munger was known for his wit, wisdom, and contrarian investment style.
Mazdak
Block, TikTok & Beyond
From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping...
a month ago
From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping our digital world.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #158
Claude Shannon's mighty mouse, Ben Graham's father, Doomberg quits Twitter, FASB segment disclosure...
a year ago
Claude Shannon's mighty mouse, Ben Graham's father, Doomberg quits Twitter, FASB segment disclosure rules, Podcasts on old annual reports, Henry Ford's road trips, Jony Ive, Sal Kahn
Seeking Wisdom
What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a...
7 months ago
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a plate full of french fries. It takes an enormous amount of energy to break bad habits. I’ve broken bad habits under two conditions: (a) it’s a do-or-die situation, or (b) you have a...
Commoncog
Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a...
a year ago
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a deliberate practice training program isn't as difficult as you might think.
Mazdak
Protect Your iPhone: Apple Introduces Stolen Device Protection
Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device...
a year ago
Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device Protection, currently available to beta testers. This feature adds an extra layer of protection to your personal information and financial data, making it more difficult for thieves to...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #195
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
9 months ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
Moneyness
Why is Binance leaving Canada?
Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, announced last month that it would be exiting Canada....
a year ago
Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, announced last month that it would be exiting Canada. At the time, it blamed "new guidance" issued by Canada's securities regulators. We now have an even more detailed explanation from Binance about the nature of this "new guidance."...
FIRE v London
Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK...
a month ago
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #209
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
4 months ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
balajis.com
Network State Conference 2023
Come to Amsterdam on October 30, 2023 to build the parallel establishment.
a year ago
Come to Amsterdam on October 30, 2023 to build the parallel establishment.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2024: A Stock Comeback - The Low Expectations Game!
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation...
11 months ago
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation out of control and a recession on the horizon. While stocks had their ups and downs during the year, they ended the year strong, and recouped, at least in the aggregate, most of...
Mazdak
Yelp's Transformation: From Review Revolution to Advertising Efficiency
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a...
12 months ago
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. Shifting from a sales-driven model to a self-service advertising engine, Yelp has achieved significant efficiency gains and revitalized its...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15...
3 days ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but close to housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate).
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #221
Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro:...
a month ago
Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro: Success or Failure?, Berkshire in the 1960s, Whole Foods, Black Diamond, Merck, Wormholes
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Shanghai, Wrong, Returns, Nuclear, Employee Performance, Feedback Loops, Buffett
3 weeks ago
Shanghai, Wrong, Returns, Nuclear, Employee Performance, Feedback Loops, Buffett
Commoncog
The Limits of Operational Excellence
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven,...
8 months ago
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven, achieve operational excellence, and die, and others acquire Process Power and win?
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 1
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. I love playing and watching cricket. The dominance India showed in the recently concluded World Cup is astounding. I have never seen anything like it in...
Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
a year ago
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
10 months ago
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP, Existing Home Sales
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly...
3 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 232 thousand initial claims, down from 242 thousand last week.
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (Third...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #182
Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire,...
12 months ago
Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire, Better habits for 2024, Amusing CPA stories, Ben Graham, Charlie Munger, Pernod Ricard
FIRE v London
July ’23: Markets up, Coutts down
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye...
a year ago
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye scoff, isn’t that much – London is a fairly dry city – drier than Rome and much drier than Sydney). It has been long trousers weather, for the first time in several years. But at...
Bits about Money
A review of Number Go Up, on crypto shenanigans
A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether...
a year ago
A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether specifically.
Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
4 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales tomorrow, Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96...
Mazdak
More Creators Can Now Make Money on YouTube
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out...
a year ago
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out Vision for the Platform. YouTube Makes It Easier for Small Creators to Earn Money YouTube is lowering the eligibility requirements for creators to make money from their channels....
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
8 months ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
Bits about Money
Payroll providers, Power, Respect
Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is...
a year ago
Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is complicated.
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
9 months ago
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
Moneyness
After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the...
5 days ago
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the topic starting with my first post in October 2012. Since then I've written 109 posts on the Moneyness Blog that reference bitcoin, along with a few dozen articles at venues like...
Farnam Street
Evaluating Information: Find the Signal in the Noise
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what...
over a year ago
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what matters from what doesn’t. The good news is that you can train your brain to evaluate the quality of information. Not only can you quickly determine if someone knows what they are...
Moneyness
Are central banks too reliant on SWIFT for domestic payments?
Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally...
a year ago
Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally important to our lives, but we never see them in action. All of a nations' electronic payments are ultimately completed, or settled, on these systems. If they stop working, our...
Mazdak
AI.com to Chat.com: OpenAI's Domain Domination
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've...
a month ago
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've dropped a huge amount of cash – likely over $15.5 million – to snag the premium domain Chat.com.
Musings on Markets
The School Bell Rings: Time for Class!
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting...
11 months ago
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting in a couple of weeks, I would like to invite you, if you are interested, to come along for the ride. I know! I know! Most of you are not enrolled at NYU, paying nosebleed prices,...
Moneyness
How to debase the coinage in order to pay for wars
Henry VIII, after Hans Holbein the Younger
It's fun to imagine traveling back in time and engaging...
a year ago
Henry VIII, after Hans Holbein the Younger
It's fun to imagine traveling back in time and engaging with the then-prevailing technologies. Would you be able to ride a boneshaker or use a counting board? It's probably harder than you think: kids today can't even use a 1980s rotary...
The Rational Walk
Real Estate Adventures
Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with...
9 months ago
Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with realtors, one positive and one negative.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2023 Results — Overview
This article provides a 30,000 foot overview of Berkshire Hathaway's results for 2023 with a focus...
10 months ago
This article provides a 30,000 foot overview of Berkshire Hathaway's results for 2023 with a focus on the components net operating earnings.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in...
9 months ago
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in the game, repurchase activity, and stock based compensation.
Commoncog
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
4 months ago
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
a year ago
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
Mazdak
Waymo in Japan, Veo 2 AI video, Snapchat Monetization ...
Google DeepMind has upped the game in AI video generation.
5 days ago
Google DeepMind has upped the game in AI video generation.
Commoncog
How to Use Power
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect...
2 weeks ago
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect yourself against them? Part two of three in a series on power in business.
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked...
10 months ago
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked spectacularly well. Will Berkshire's playbook continue to perform well in the future?
The Diff
Social Media as a Test of Human-in-the-Loop Generative AI
Plus! Holdcos; Cash and Control; War Economies; In-Kind Dividends; Currency
a week ago
Plus! Holdcos; Cash and Control; War Economies; In-Kind Dividends; Currency
Citation Needed
Cryptocurrency companies have raised over $115 million to influence US elections this cycle, and...
As election season kicks into high gear, we need to watch how cryptocurrency companies are...
6 months ago
As election season kicks into high gear, we need to watch how cryptocurrency companies are influencing US politics.
Mazdak
Netflix Discontinues Basic Plan in Canada
Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it...
a year ago
Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it plans to discontinue the plan altogether, but it is no longer available to new or rejoining members. The Basic plan was the most affordable option for Netflix subscribers in Canada,...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
8 months ago
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #165
Buffett on Inflation, Dollar General, Due Diligence, Personal Libraries, The role of AI in drug...
a year ago
Buffett on Inflation, Dollar General, Due Diligence, Personal Libraries, The role of AI in drug discovery, Small-cap opportunities, and interviews of Peter Brown, Bill Gross, Chris Bloomstran.
Citation Needed
Issue 66 – Pretensions to relevance
FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky...
3 months ago
FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky goes to trial, and some more ill-received blockchain games suggest “GameFi” has an uncertain future.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #214
September 11, 2001, Nixon vs JFK, Apple's future, Damodaran on decline, Berkshire's book value,...
3 months ago
September 11, 2001, Nixon vs JFK, Apple's future, Damodaran on decline, Berkshire's book value, Founder mode, Chasing dividends, Caro on LBJ, Peter Lynch, Epicureanism, Mt Everest
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
10 months ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
Moneyness
Kraken v Kraken, or how to protect the public from crypto exchange failures
It's been a full year since FTX International and FTX-US collapsed, and the shocking thing is –...
a year ago
It's been a full year since FTX International and FTX-US collapsed, and the shocking thing is – there is still no regulated crypto venue in the U.S.! You'd think some lessons would have been learnt.
To best protect the public from the Sam Bankman-Frieds of the world, what the...
balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got
Your assets are the government's collateral.
8 months ago
Your assets are the government's collateral.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #219
Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam...
2 months ago
Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam Zell, UK Bargains, Gregorys Coffee, Free Speech Under Assault, Dopamine and Addiction
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway MBA
Studying Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Berkshire Hathaway's history can provide a level of...
a year ago
Studying Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Berkshire Hathaway's history can provide a level of fluency in business and investing rivaling a costly MBA degree.
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?)
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
a week ago
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #190
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben...
10 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben Graham's summer on a farm, Income taxes, Interviews of Bruce Berkowitz and Howard Marks, and more...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual...
4 days ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in...
Musings on Markets
Reaping the Whirlwind: A September 2022 Inflation Update!
In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just...
over a year ago
In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just starting to see could be explained by COVID and supply chain issues, prudence on the part of policy makers required that it be taken as a long term threat and dealt with quickly. Not...
Mazdak
The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured...
a year ago
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured the attention of the world. ChatGPT's ability to generate human-quality text, translate languages, write different kinds of creative content, and answer questions in an informative...
Commoncog
Eric Nehrlich on the Art of Executive Coaching and Forecasting
Cedric talks to Eric Nehrlich about driving down the error rate for Google's revenue forecasting...
a year ago
Cedric talks to Eric Nehrlich about driving down the error rate for Google's revenue forecasting from 10-20% down to 0.5%, his approach to executive coaching, and how to come up with small experiments for personal growth.
Farnam Street
A Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active...
over a year ago
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active participant, the experience can transform the way you think, and how you see the world. *** Here’s a situation familiar to many of us: We decide to take a vacation and go somewhere...
Bits about Money
Markets in power
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
over a year ago
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
Seeking Wisdom
What I learned from Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics Course at FLAME University
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University....
over a year ago
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University. Being his student since 2011, I realized my dream by sitting in his class for 3.5 days. Prof. Bakshi taught us around 20 different models from Charlie Munger’s Psychology of Human...
Mazdak
The Rollercoaster Ride of Long-Term Rates: What it Means for You and the Economy
Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that...
a year ago
Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that had everyone from policymakers to financial analysts glued to their screens? Well, guess what? It's mostly reversed! What does this mean? In a nutshell, it means a sigh of relief...
Musings on Markets
Disagreements and First Principles: The Pushback on my Tesla Valuation
I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago, and as has always been the...
a year ago
I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago, and as has always been the case when I value this company, I have heard from both sides of the Tesla divide. Some of you believe that I am being far too generous in my forecasts of revenues and profitability...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #224
Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending...
a month ago
Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending human lifespan, Fastenal's success story, Buffett's early investments, IKEA's founder
Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US)
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
11 months ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI)
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
10 months ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
7 months ago
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
Musings on Markets
META Lesson 3: Tell me a story!
In my first two posts on Facebook, I noted that its most recent earnings report, and the market...
over a year ago
In my first two posts on Facebook, I noted that its most recent earnings report, and the market reaction to it, offers an opportunity for us to talk about bigger issues. I started by examining corporate governance, or its absence, and argued that some of the frustration that...
Mazdak
Income Splitting with a Lower-Income Spouse: Strategies and Considerations 🇨🇦
Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be...
10 months ago
Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be powerful tools for maximizing tax benefits and building wealth. This article explores various strategies for couples where one spouse earns significantly more than the other,...
FIRE v London
Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an...
10 months ago
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an impulse while travelling back from the Coastal Folly. My main frame of reference to the cathedral being those notorious Russian nerve agent assassins citing it as their reason for...
Calculated Risk
December Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.7 million SAAR, Up 5% YoY
From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on...
2 days ago
From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on Inventory (pay content). Brief excerpt:
Improved affordability is the main thrust to the end-of-year improvement in demand, with higher consumer confidence also likely a...
Citation Needed
Wind the clock
A message to those asking “what do I do now?”
a month ago
A message to those asking “what do I do now?”
The Rational Walk
The Digest #203
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value...
6 months ago
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value Investor's Club, Nietzsche's world view, Are wrist watches effeminate?, Seinfeld on writing
Mazdak
Google Quantum Computer, OpenAI Sora Video Generator and more ...
Google just dropped a bombshell in quantum computing.
a week ago
Google just dropped a bombshell in quantum computing.
Musings on Markets
AI's Winners, Losers and Wannabes: An NVIDIA Valuation, with the AI Boost!
I will start this post with a couple of confessions. The first is that my portfolio has held up well...
a year ago
I will start this post with a couple of confessions. The first is that my portfolio has held up well this year, in a market that has been top-heavy and tech-driven, and one big reason is that it contains both NVIDIA and Microsoft, two companies that have benefited from the AI...
The Diff
Just Another Risk Asset
Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
a week ago
Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
Mazdak
Google's Ad Business Under Fire in Europe
Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces...
a year ago
Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe The European Commission has made a formal antitrust complaint against Google and its ad business. In a preliminary opinion, the regulator says Google has...
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
a year ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
Moneyness
It's time to get rid of "crypto"
Call me a pedant, but I'm not a fan of the word "crypto". It may have been a serviceable category...
9 months ago
Call me a pedant, but I'm not a fan of the word "crypto". It may have been a serviceable category back in 2011 when there was only one type of crypto thingy – bitcoin. But it's ceased to be a meaningful term and, if anything, it causes a regression in understanding.
Source:...
Citation Needed
Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely...
4 months ago
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely prohibited from making its $25 million contribution to the Fairshake crypto super PAC in May 2024.
Moneyness
The long arm of OFAC and its reach into the Ethereum network
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving...
a year ago
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving Tornado Cash, a piece of blockchain infrastructure that was sanctioned by the U.S. government last year for providing mixing services to North Korea.
Over the last two weeks...
The Rational Walk
The Year in Review
Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
a year ago
Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
a year ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
The Rational Walk
The Digest #200
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks,...
7 months ago
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks, Appnesia, Stress and heart disease, Steve Jobs, Flying Cars, Dunkirk, Napoleon
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
over a year ago
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
Bits about Money
Demystifying financial leverage
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for...
over a year ago
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for financial firms.
Moneyness
Crypto adoption in America
Source: America Loves Crypto
You may have recently come across the America Loves Crypto...
a year ago
Source: America Loves Crypto
You may have recently come across the America Loves Crypto marketing campaign, sponsored by Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange. In an attempt to promote the voting power of crypto owners, the website makes the claim that 52 million...
Moneyness
Another Indian payments idea: a lightweight portable payments system for catastrophes
India is so far ahead of most of the world when it comes to payments technology that when a new...
a year ago
India is so far ahead of most of the world when it comes to payments technology that when a new Indian payments idea emerges, we should probably pay attention.
In its recent annual report, the Reserve Bank of India, the country's central bank, put forward the idea of a...
Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
11 months ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
Citation Needed
Issue 44 – Four
The Justice Department's interest in Binance isn't just "FUD" anymore.
a year ago
The Justice Department's interest in Binance isn't just "FUD" anymore.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #163
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's...
a year ago
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's future, Nvidia, AI, Interpreting medical studies, Why Doomberg left Twitter, Jimmy Buffett, and more...
The Diff
What Would a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Actually Do?
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State:...
3 weeks ago
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State: Beauty Filters Edition
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
8 months ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
Mazdak
CPP vs OAS: Understanding Canada's Core Retirement Benefits 🇨🇦
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension...
a month ago
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS).
Citation Needed
Substackers Against Nazis
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
a year ago
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
Mazdak
Threads Takes Europe!: Meta's Microblogging App Makes a Big Move
Calling all European Tweeters! 🇪🇺 Meta's microblogging platform, Threads, is officially landing on...
a year ago
Calling all European Tweeters! 🇪🇺 Meta's microblogging platform, Threads, is officially landing on your shores. Months after its initial launch in the U.S., Threads is finally spreading its wings and embracing the vast and vibrant online communities of Europe. Mark Zuckerberg...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests
Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and...
2 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and now is the sole owner of the energy company.
The Rational Walk
Hesiod’s Works and Days
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it...
7 months ago
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it was 2,700 years ago.
Mazdak
Unlock the Power of Persuasion: The 4-Part Key to Getting What You Want
Imagine having just one skill that could propel your business to unprecedented success.
a month ago
Imagine having just one skill that could propel your business to unprecedented success.
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
12 months ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #161
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy...
a year ago
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy band-aid; Plus insights from Todd Combs, Michael Burry, Joel Tillinghast, and Lee Ainslie.
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 16th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 26.6% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now...
6 days ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now 7.7% below the peak for the year (8 weeks ago).
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
6 months ago
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
The Rational Walk
The Thirty Second Mind
Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
11 months ago
Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
8 months ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
FIRE v London
Mayday for IBKR margin lending
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No...
a year ago
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No longer. If you’ve read my other posts (like this or this or this) on margin lending, and are interested in exploring further, make you read this post before you do. Why I used to like...
The Diff
Meta's Least-Untrusted Clone Model
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More...
3 days ago
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More YouTube AI IP
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2024: Profitability - The End Game for Business?
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free...
10 months ago
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the...
Mazdak
Choosing the Optimal Legal Structure for Your Small Business 🇨🇦
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate...
11 months ago
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate legal framework can feel like traversing a complex maze. This guide sheds light on the merits and drawbacks of the three primary options: sole proprietorship, partnership, and...
Commoncog
The Disaffected PhD Skunkworks: A Story About Process Improvement
A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service...
over a year ago
A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service at Amazon.
Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
6 months ago
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
The Rational Walk
Free Articles!
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
8 months ago
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
The Rational Walk
The Iliad
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
8 months ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
Mazdak
5 best investments during high interest rates
Interest rates are rising, and that means it's time to rethink your investment strategy. When...
a year ago
Interest rates are rising, and that means it's time to rethink your investment strategy. When interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds declines, and stocks can become more volatile. However, there are still a number of investments that can perform well in a high interest...
The Rational Walk
Apple’s Dystopian iPad Video
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision...
7 months ago
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision crushing symbols of art and culture.
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 2
This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for...
12 months ago
This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I concluded the previous post by explaining how Attention works. You can download the Excel sheet and Python code that explains how Attention from here and...
Mazdak
TFSA 2025: Your Complete Guide to Tax-Free Savings in Canada
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to...
2 weeks ago
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to be a bright spot for Canadian investors.
The Rational Walk
Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023)
A life well lived
a year ago
Bits about Money
Improving how credit cards work under the covers
Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can...
a year ago
Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can be fixed. Stripe provides examples.
The Rational Walk
Wealth vs. Income
Early retirees are often misunderstood when it comes to their financial status. Being in a position...
a year ago
Early retirees are often misunderstood when it comes to their financial status. Being in a position to deal with "social debt" requires conservatism and a substantial financial reserve.
The Rational Walk
GEICO Prioritizes Profits Over Market Share
Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price...
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price of ceding market share that will be costly to regain in the future.
Bits about Money
The Bond villain compliance strategy
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out...
a year ago
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out for Binance and its CEO. Spoiler: poorly.
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
9 months ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
Mazdak
Tesla's Robotaxi: A Gamble?
Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on...
a month ago
Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on October 10th.
Commoncog
Learning About Moats the Hard Way
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end...
6 months ago
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end of his career.
Mazdak
RRSP Guide for New Immigrants to Canada: Everything You Need to Know
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the...
a month ago
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP).
The Rational Walk
Buffett Resumes Occidental Purchases
Berkshire spent $246.4 million to acquire 3.9 million OXY shares between October 23 and October 25.
a year ago
Berkshire spent $246.4 million to acquire 3.9 million OXY shares between October 23 and October 25.
Musings on Markets
Earnings and Cash Flows: A Primer on Free Cash Flow
It is never pleasant to be in the midst of a market correction, but a market correction does operate...
over a year ago
It is never pleasant to be in the midst of a market correction, but a market correction does operate as a cleanser for excesses that enter into even the most disciplined investors' playbooks in the good times. This correction has been no exception, as the threat of losing...
Mazdak
Regulating Crypto
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end...
a month ago
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end for crypto, or a necessary step towards mainstream adoption?
Mazdak
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed...
a year ago
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed as contributions to nonprofit organizations. Shares of Amazon fell 1.8% on Nov. 15 and 0.3% on Nov. 16. Bezos still holds 988.3 million shares of Amazon, around 10% of the company.
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
a year ago
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
balajis.com
Crypto Twitter Found SBF's Fraud
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
a year ago
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
Farnam Street
Focus to Win
Anyone can say no to bad ideas, but only a focused person can say no to good ideas. Focus is about...
over a year ago
Anyone can say no to bad ideas, but only a focused person can say no to good ideas. Focus is about saying no. When talking about one of the biggest lessons he learned from Steve Jobs, Jonny Ive said it was focus. This sounds really simplistic, but it still shocks me how few...
Bits about Money
Money laundering and AML compliance
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
a year ago
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
Moneyness
A glass half-full take on Caucasus sanctions evasion
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being...
2 months ago
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being carried out through the Caucasus. He visits the Lars border crossing between Georgia and Russia to document how smugglers are openly moving British and German luxury cars into Russia, in...
balajis.com
#4 - The Winklevoss Twins and Balaji
Listen now (50 min) | Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss talk with Balaji about how Washington, DC is...
a year ago
Listen now (50 min) | Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss talk with Balaji about how Washington, DC is losing crypto, while other countries like the UAE and Japan are winning web3. OUTLINE 0:00 - I'm 6'5", 220, and there's two of me! 0:58 - Crypto flippening from America to Asia
Commoncog
Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year
A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
a year ago
A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
FIRE v London
June ’24: Election fever
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west...
5 months ago
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west country, the south coast and the Isle of Wight; partly overseas – I visited Ibiza for a few days of R&R. Meanwhile, the election campaigns were in full swing. Nigel Farage did his...
Citation Needed
Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details
I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
11 months ago
I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
The Rational Walk
Prometheus Bound
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus...
6 months ago
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus dating back to the fifth century BC.
Mazdak
Unplugging Australia: Kids vs. Social Media
Australia is going offline!
3 weeks ago
Australia is going offline!
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
a year ago
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
Mazdak
The Rise of Nvidia and the Fall of Intel
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its...
a month ago
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its influence in the tech world.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #208
Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs...
5 months ago
Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs in 1983, Microsoft deep dive, Marks on risk, Luca Delanna on ergodicity, Guadalcanal
Moneyness
There are now two types of PayPal dollars, and one is better than the other
PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of...
a year ago
PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of opening a traditional PayPal account to maintain a balance of dollars, PayPal customers can now hold something new called PayPal USD, a crypto version of a dollar. Whereas PayPal USD...
Mazdak
Twitter vs. Instagram Threads: The Battle for the Short-Form Social Media Crown
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both...
a year ago
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both offer users a way to share short-form content, but they have different approaches to how that content is displayed and consumed. Twitter is a more public platform, where anyone can...
Citation Needed
Video: The Cryptocurrency Industry's Unprecedented Election Spending
Let's talk about where the money came from, where it went, the cryptocurrency industry's political...
a month ago
Let's talk about where the money came from, where it went, the cryptocurrency industry's political goals, and what’s next.
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
a year ago
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
9 months ago
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
Mazdak
Multifamily Real Estate Investment
Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential...
a year ago
Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential properties with three or more units. It can be a good investment for a number of reasons, including: Potential for high cash flow. Multifamily properties can generate a steady stream of...
Mazdak
2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to...
12 months ago
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to generate human-quality text, while chipmaker Nvidia pushed the boundaries of what's possible with graphics processing units (GPUs). But amidst the hype, there were also concerns about...
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
FIRE v London
Becoming an ISA $millionaire
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until...
a year ago
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until using my full annual ISA allowance(s), which took me much longer than usual last year. This year I actually completed my ISA topups in April, within a few weeks of the start of the...
Bits about Money
BAM is now reader-supported
Bits about Money now offers paid memberships. (Plus, a bonus essay on newsletter financial...
a year ago
Bits about Money now offers paid memberships. (Plus, a bonus essay on newsletter financial infrastructure.)
Citation Needed
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
3 months ago
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
balajis.com
#2 - Tobi Lütke & Kaz Nejatian on Shopify's Country-Sized Economy
Listen now (127 min) | Tobi Lütke (Shopify Founder & CEO), Kaz Nejatian (Shopify COO), and Balaji...
a year ago
Listen now (127 min) | Tobi Lütke (Shopify Founder & CEO), Kaz Nejatian (Shopify COO), and Balaji review how Shopify rose from tiny startup to $180B+ global economy, with an annual GMV on par with the GDP of New Zealand. In the process they touch on Hayek, the Hanseatic League,...
Mazdak
Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market?
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more...
8 months ago
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more pressing than ever. Soaring property values and rising interest rates have created a complex landscape, leaving many wondering: is homeownership still the golden ticket to building...
balajis.com
The Network State Book
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
The Rational Walk
Two Sides of the Same Coin
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the...
11 months ago
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the longer it will take to achieve financial independence.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #177
Remembering Charlie Munger
a year ago
Remembering Charlie Munger
The Rational Walk
The Digest #186
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment...
11 months ago
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment checklists, Shane Parrish interviews Tom Gayner, Novo Nordisk, Howard Marks on interest rates
Mazdak
2024 Tax Changes in Canada: A Detailed Guide for Canadians 💰🇨🇦
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year,...
11 months ago
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year, adjustments and updates across various areas present both opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. Let's explore the key changes and consider their potential ramifications.
Mazdak
The Future of Healthcare: Your AI Health Pod is Here! 🩺
Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and...
a year ago
Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and hello to the CarePod, your self-contained doctor's office powered by artificial intelligence. Imagine: Stepping into a futuristic pod at your local mall, gym, or even office...
Musings on Markets
The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor!
If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums,...
a year ago
If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. As part of that obsession, since September 2008, I have estimated an equity risk premium...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #202
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter...
6 months ago
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter syndrome, Decline of higher education, Howard Schultz, Cathie Wood, Robert Hagstrom
The Rational Walk
Dollar General: Value or Value Trap?
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some...
a year ago
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some initial thoughts about the company as well as the overall retail landscape.
Mazdak
Google: Monopolized?
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little...
2 weeks ago
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little competition.
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
9 months ago
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Evolving Estate Plan
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new...
5 months ago
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new charitable trust run by his children.
Mazdak
Tired of Chasing Leads? Elevate Your Value Proposition
Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
a month ago
Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
Commoncog
Stan Slap on the Art of Building Effective Employee Cultures
Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent...
a month ago
Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent model for shaping employee culture.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #175
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount...
a year ago
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount rates, Evolving moats, Jay Gould, Garry Tan, Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Steve Ells
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.3% Range
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to...
a week ago
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to
3.0% q/q saar. Additionally, our 4Q US GDP tracker was unchanged at 2.1% q/q saar. [Dec 13th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final...
Mazdak
Compound Interest: A Comprehensive Guide
Compound interest is often called the "eighth wonder of the world" and for good reason.
a month ago
Compound interest is often called the "eighth wonder of the world" and for good reason.
The Diff
The Nvidia Way is the Regular Way, Just Faster
Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese...
2 days ago
Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese Characteristics
Mazdak
Google's AI Search Tool: A Traffic Nightmare for Publishers?
AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
a year ago
AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
Bits about Money
The infrastructure behind ATMs
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
a year ago
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #223
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected...
a month ago
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, Market Prices as Political Predictors, The Three Indias, Semiconductor Progress
Commoncog
Cultural Advantage is Counter Positioning
Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be...
over a year ago
Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be counter-positioning, not process power. Why this is surprising, and why it matters.
Mazdak
The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
a year ago
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
Musings on Markets
Invisible, yet Invaluable: Valuing Intangibles in the Birkenstock IPO!
A few days ago, I valued Instacart ahead of its initial public offering, and noted that the...
a year ago
A few days ago, I valued Instacart ahead of its initial public offering, and noted that the reception that the stock gets will be a good barometer of where risk capital stands in the market, right now. After a buzzy open, when the stock jumped from its offering price of $30 a...
FIRE v London
The richest person you know
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are...
a year ago
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are among the highest earning and/or richest people in the UK. I bet however that not many of you feel that way. Let’s start with income To be in the top 1% of earnings in… Continue...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides,...
2 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides, Sophocles, Persian Fire, Hillbilly Elegy, and more.
Mazdak
Big Tech Donating to Trump's Inaugural Fund, Teens' Online Habits, More Tech Updates
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on...
a week ago
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on Prime Video 😀
Mazdak
Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and...
a year ago
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and diversify your portfolio. However, it's important to do your research and take the necessary steps to ensure a successful transition. Here are some practical tips for entrepreneurs...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #207
Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed...
5 months ago
Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed memories, Lost knowledge, Todd Combs, Walter Schloss, Bob Noyce, Nietzsche, Lincoln
Mazdak
Meta's AI & Reuters: A New Era of News?
Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading...
a month ago
Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading global news provider, to bring real-time news updates directly to users through Meta's AI chatbot.
Mazdak
Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket?
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the...
11 months ago
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the dream of homeownership into a distant mirage for many Canadians. But before you resign yourself to renting forever, consider this: owning a home may not be the guaranteed...
Musings on Markets
META Lesson 1: Corporate Governance
As we get deeper into earnings season for the third quarter of 2022, the biggest negative surprises...
over a year ago
As we get deeper into earnings season for the third quarter of 2022, the biggest negative surprises are coming from technology companies, with the tech giants leading the way. Investors, used to a decade of better-than-expected earnings and rising stock prices at these companies,...
Commoncog
How to Become Data Driven
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious...
a year ago
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious than you might think.
Farnam Street
Why Write
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
a year ago
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
balajis.com
Too Fake to Tell
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
a year ago
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #194
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation,...
9 months ago
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons of history
Moneyness
Why my favorite coinage is Byzantine coinage
What do I like about Byzantine coinage?
Most people probably admire the Byzantine solidus, a gold...
9 months ago
What do I like about Byzantine coinage?
Most people probably admire the Byzantine solidus, a gold coin that maintained its weight and purity for over 600 years, which is quite remarkable for a coin. The solidus was exported all over the world, including to Europe, which lacked...
Mazdak
How Long (and Why) You Must Keep Every Business Record 🇨🇦
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable...
11 months ago
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable records. This isn't just about staying organized; it's about complying with the law, managing your finances, and protecting yourself from audits. But with so many rules and regulations,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #211
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist...
4 months ago
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist investing, Perils of forecasting, Orwell's 1984, Guy Spier, Ben Thompson, Estée Lauder
Mazdak
AI Fuels Alphabet's Growth
Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
a month ago
Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of
22,000 from the...
3 days ago
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of
22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,500, an increase of
1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 224,250.
emphasis added
The...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of...
8 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of Anne Frank, Endurance, Crime and Punishment, and the Iliad.
Citation Needed
Issue 68 – Opportunity agenda
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as...
2 months ago
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as another enters, and Stand With Crypto bets on the favorites.
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.4% YoY
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 days ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to...
Mazdak
Used Car Prices Drop: Should You Buy Now or Wait for Better Deals?
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has...
11 months ago
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has begun to exhibit signs of a significant shift. Prices are now decelerating, presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers. This article delves into the key factors driving...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
6 days ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 December. ...
Occupancy: 59.0% (+0.5%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
6 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales on Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #213
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects,...
3 months ago
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects, Personal Bots, Bitcoin, AI vs. Reality, "Useless" Knowledge, Jay Bowen, Rudy Havenstein
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2023, most notably Dominion by Tom...
a year ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2023, most notably Dominion by Tom Holland and The Path Between the Seas by David McCullough.
Moneyness
Thoughts on the Tornado Cash defence and what happens when everyone adopts it
Payments companies are regularly punished for engaging in money laundering. MoneyGram, for instance,...
8 months ago
Payments companies are regularly punished for engaging in money laundering. MoneyGram, for instance, has has to pay multiple fines. Western Union was famously busted in 2017. Meanwhile, Cash App is being probed as we speak for inadequate anti-money laundering controls.
In the...
Musings on Markets
Just do it! Brand Name Lessons from Nike'sTroubles!
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon...
2 months ago
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon University track team built one of the great shoe companies in the world, in Nike. In addition to its entertainment value, and it is a fun book to read, I read it for two...
Mazdak
How to Build Wealth: 5 Key Principles
Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is...
a year ago
Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is possible for anyone who is willing to put in the work. Here are 5 key principles to help you build wealth: Live below your means. This is the single most important thing you can do to...
Moneyness
Monetagium
An English penny minted by William the Conqueror, who brought monetagium to England. Source: History...
6 months ago
An English penny minted by William the Conqueror, who brought monetagium to England. Source: History in Coins
The way that a modern mafia protection racket works is the mafia starts doing very bad things to regular folks, say you and your business. To stop the damage, you pay...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2023: Inflation and Interest Rates
If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more...
a year ago
If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. The US treasury market, considered by some still as a safe haven, was anything but safe or a haven, especially at the long maturities, as long...
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 2
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts...
a year ago
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts before reading this one. When using linear and logistic regression, which involve just a single linear equation, calculating derivatives is easy since there is only one equation...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #217
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The...
2 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The Fed's Inflationary Bias, Jimmy Carter at 100, Sam Altman, Bruno Leoni, Thermopylae
The Rational Walk
Pilot’s Founders vs. Berkshire Hathaway
Warren Buffett's reputation as a straight shooter is called into question by the Haslam family in a...
a year ago
Warren Buffett's reputation as a straight shooter is called into question by the Haslam family in a dispute over the valuation of their remaining 20% interest.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #201
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
6 months ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
The Rational Walk
The Digest #184
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing,...
11 months ago
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing, Damodaran's 2024 data update, Michael Ovitz, Live Oak, Red Bull, Capital allocation
Commoncog
Renaming the Business Expertise Triad
Renaming the business expertise triad from Supply/Demand/Capital to the simpler ...
a year ago
Renaming the business expertise triad from Supply/Demand/Capital to the simpler Operations/Market/Capital.
balajis.com
The Elondrop
Build the political support necessary to free Twitter with the largest airdrop in history.
over a year ago
Build the political support necessary to free Twitter with the largest airdrop in history.
Mazdak
AI Energy Fears: Overblown or the Next Crisis?
Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
a month ago
Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
Moneyness
For the first time ever, euro paper money in circulation is shrinking
Why is the paper euro shrinking? Are we at peak cash?
To begin with, here is the data,...
a year ago
Why is the paper euro shrinking? Are we at peak cash?
To begin with, here is the data, charted:
As the orange line shows, Europe is experiencing its first year-over-year drop in paper money in circulation.
While it's tempting to attribute this to paper money's declining...
Moneyness
"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did."
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases...
6 months ago
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases wend their way through courts in the Netherlands and the U.S., we continue to learn how society's money laundering laws will be applied to some of the more unique financial entities...
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
11 months ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Moneyness
There won't be a Blackrock bitcoin ETF, at least not until Binance bites the dust
Back in 2018 I wrote about the controversy over the constant stream of bitcoin ETF denials emanating...
a year ago
Back in 2018 I wrote about the controversy over the constant stream of bitcoin ETF denials emanating from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). And my conclusion then was: "further rejections likely." My conclusion in 2023 is the same. Even with Wall Street-giant...
Moneyness
How did Zcash avoid getting OFAC'ed?
The 2022 sanctioning of privacy tool Tornado Cash by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (or OFAC,...
a year ago
The 2022 sanctioning of privacy tool Tornado Cash by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (or OFAC, the U.S.'s sanctioning authority) has inspired a new privacy idea: Privacy Pools.
An olive branch to OFAC, Privacy Pools will let users choose who they associate with, the idea...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #218
Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles,...
2 months ago
Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles, Doing what you love, Human aging, Ray Ozzie on intelligent machines, Aesop's Fables
Commoncog
Focus on the Cases
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than...
over a year ago
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than synthesised business concepts.
Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
5 months ago
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
Mazdak
Inflation finally chills out! Americans rejoice & recession whispers fade as prices dip and spending...
The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first...
a year ago
The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first decline since way back in 2020! This ain't no mirage, folks - inflation is cooling down, and the Fed's fight against skyrocketing prices is showing real results!
FIRE v London
My 20 year property returns
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But...
a year ago
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But my net worth includes an important asset class – property – that I don’t normally track, but which I have held in some form for over 20 years. So, this post takes a look at how my…...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q3 Flow of Funds
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly...
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week.
Producer Price Index for November from the BLS. The...
Citation Needed
Effective obfuscation
Silicon Valley's "effective altruism" and "effective accelerationism" only give a thin philosophical...
a year ago
Silicon Valley's "effective altruism" and "effective accelerationism" only give a thin philosophical veneer to the industry's same old impulses.
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
2 months ago
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
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