The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
10 months ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #182
Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire,...
a year ago
Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire, Better habits for 2024, Amusing CPA stories, Ben Graham, Charlie Munger, Pernod Ricard
The Rational Walk
The Digest #215
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking...
3 months ago
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking Kamala Harris, Weaponizing political anger, Nick Sleep's letters, Howard Marks on risk
Moneyness
AML works, even if it intercepts less than 1% of criminal proceeds. Here's how
Critics of anti-money laundering (AML) often point to the fact that just a tiny fraction of 1% of...
a year ago
Critics of anti-money laundering (AML) often point to the fact that just a tiny fraction of 1% of criminal proceeds are seized every year, their point being that AML is not working. Either update our approach to AML, they say, or just throw in the towel and legalize money...
Bits about Money
Credit cards as a legacy system
Credit cards have been in use for almost 75 years. Some long-ago decisions still cause consequences...
over a year ago
Credit cards have been in use for almost 75 years. Some long-ago decisions still cause consequences in the present day. But change is possible.
Citation Needed
Issue 43 – Laser eyes
Two crypto firms emerge from bankruptcy, and a Bored Ape party turns out even worse than it sounds.
a year ago
Two crypto firms emerge from bankruptcy, and a Bored Ape party turns out even worse than it sounds.
Commoncog
Executing on Becoming Data Driven: The Technicals
A technical overview of how I'm applying the methods and ideas of the Becoming Data Driven in...
a year ago
A technical overview of how I'm applying the methods and ideas of the Becoming Data Driven in Business series.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Canvas
Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs...
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs of putting down his paintbrush anytime soon.
FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
4 months ago
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
The Rational Walk
The Power of Investment Journals
Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles...
a year ago
Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles explores lessons I learned dating back to 2009.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #205
Books I read in Q2, Buffett's estate plan, The magic of compounding, How to read a book, Portfolio...
6 months ago
Books I read in Q2, Buffett's estate plan, The magic of compounding, How to read a book, Portfolio rebalancing, Ben Graham in 1955, Sam Walton, LBJ, Robert Moses, The origins of language
Calculated Risk
Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase...
a week ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
balajis.com
The Mirrortable
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and...
over a year ago
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and internationalize the logistical mess of angel investing.
Mazdak
Used Car Prices Drop: Should You Buy Now or Wait for Better Deals?
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has...
a year ago
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has begun to exhibit signs of a significant shift. Prices are now decelerating, presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers. This article delves into the key factors driving...
FIRE v London
Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an...
11 months ago
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an impulse while travelling back from the Coastal Folly. My main frame of reference to the cathedral being those notorious Russian nerve agent assassins citing it as their reason for...
Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
a year ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #179
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI...
a year ago
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI colonoscopies, Advice on tipping, Alcohol and cardiovascular risks, Nicomachean ethics
Calculated Risk
Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in...
9 hours ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High
A brief excerpt:
From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock, Office’s Vacancy Rate Broke Another...
Musings on Markets
Just do it! Brand Name Lessons from Nike'sTroubles!
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon...
3 months ago
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon University track team built one of the great shoe companies in the world, in Nike. In addition to its entertainment value, and it is a fun book to read, I read it for two...
Mazdak
Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones...
10 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones of Canadian financial planning. Both offer distinct advantages for saving and investing, but exceeding their annual contribution limits can lead to unwanted financial consequences.
Citation Needed
Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried...
10 months ago
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried doesn't want to go to jail for 100 years.
Citation Needed
Issue 69 – Nice
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also,...
2 months ago
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also, election spending hits a fever pitch, with several new crypto PACs coming out of the woodwork.
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
11 months ago
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November
Happy New Year! Best wishes for 2025, Bill
Here are the multi-family 60+ day delinquency rate since 2006.
There is much more...
Musings on Markets
AI's Winners, Losers and Wannabes: An NVIDIA Valuation, with the AI Boost!
I will start this post with a couple of confessions. The first is that my portfolio has held up well...
a year ago
I will start this post with a couple of confessions. The first is that my portfolio has held up well this year, in a market that has been top-heavy and tech-driven, and one big reason is that it contains both NVIDIA and Microsoft, two companies that have benefited from the AI...
The Rational Walk
Thoughts on Israel’s 9/11
On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered a terrorist attack that took an estimated 1,200 lives, the vast...
a year ago
On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered a terrorist attack that took an estimated 1,200 lives, the vast majority of whom were civilians.
The Rational Walk
The Sad Irons
During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill...
a year ago
During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill Country. Success was integral to his path to greater power.
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: A July 2023 Update!
I have looked at country risk, in all its dimensions, towards the middle of each year, for the last...
a year ago
I have looked at country risk, in all its dimensions, towards the middle of each year, for the last decade, for many reasons. One is curiosity, as political and economic crises roll through regions of the world, roiling long-held beliefs about safe and risky countries. The other...
The Rational Walk
Improving Disclosure for Public Companies
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing...
9 months ago
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing three simple proposals.
Farnam Street
Language: Why We Hear More Than Words
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me...
over a year ago
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me forgetting her birthday! Then why is she throwing dishes in the kitchen? Are the two things related? I wish I had a translator for my spouse. What is going on?” The answer: Extreme...
Mazdak
Apple & Google Face Mounting Threats to $500 Billion Market
The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is...
a year ago
The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is facing a growing number of threats. A recent court ruling against Google and new regulations in Europe and Asia could force the two tech giants to open up their app stores to more...
Commoncog
The Dangers of Expansion
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and...
4 months ago
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and everyone really only learns this through pain.
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?)
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
4 weeks ago
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #168
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's...
a year ago
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's IPO, Costco's clothing, Todd Combs interview, Equifax, and more ...
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.7% in November
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and...
2 weeks ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8 percent from November 2023.
report:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Commoncog
Marvel Studios’s Origin Story
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of...
a year ago
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of superb capital expertise in action.
The Rational Walk
Superinvestor Portfolio Changes — Q3 2023
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General,...
a year ago
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General, Markel, and Semper Augustus.
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
A brief excerpt:
Total housing starts in November were below expectations, however, starts in September and October were revised up slightly, combined.
Total...
Musings on Markets
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors!
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
2 months ago
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged in December
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46,...
2 weeks ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46, unchanged from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
Builder sentiment held steady to end the year as high home...
The Rational Walk
Costco’s Director Compensation
Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a...
a year ago
Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a potential model for Berkshire Hathaway in the future.
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
a year ago
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
The Diff
Economic Lessons from the Last Few Singularities
Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
2 weeks ago
Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
The Rational Walk
The Digest #217
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The...
3 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The Fed's Inflationary Bias, Jimmy Carter at 100, Sam Altman, Bruno Leoni, Thermopylae
balajis.com
The Network State Podcast with Balaji
The Network State Podcast with Balaji Srinivasan is on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Anchor.fm,...
a year ago
The Network State Podcast with Balaji Srinivasan is on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Anchor.fm, and thenetworkstate.com/podcast.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in...
9 months ago
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in the game, repurchase activity, and stock based compensation.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2023: The Earnings Test
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to...
a year ago
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside. During the course of the year, investors also...
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 30th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.5% Week-over-week, Up 26.8% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week.
Inventory will...
a week ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week.
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in late January or February.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory...
Moneyness
Who are the money launderers in the Tornado Cash stack?
Over the last few years I've written a bunch of posts about Tornado Cash, an Ethereum-based mixing...
a year ago
Over the last few years I've written a bunch of posts about Tornado Cash, an Ethereum-based mixing service, because I find it to be a fascinating tool. With the recent indictment of two people involved in the Tornado Cash "stack" for money laundering, here's another post to add...
FIRE v London
My 20 year property returns
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But...
a year ago
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But my net worth includes an important asset class – property – that I don’t normally track, but which I have held in some form for over 20 years. So, this post takes a look at how my…...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #161
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy...
a year ago
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy band-aid; Plus insights from Todd Combs, Michael Burry, Joel Tillinghast, and Lee Ainslie.
Citation Needed
Become a Wikipedian in 30 minutes
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be...
10 months ago
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be proliferating on the web? The number one thing you can do is learn to edit, and I will walk you through how to get started in only 30 minutes.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #160
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan,...
a year ago
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan, Flawed memories, Podcast interviews with Rudy Havenstein, Doomberg, Paul Graham, and Guy Spier.
Mazdak
Tech Today - Apple Smart Home Camera
Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
a month ago
Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
Mazdak
The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured...
a year ago
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured the attention of the world. ChatGPT's ability to generate human-quality text, translate languages, write different kinds of creative content, and answer questions in an informative...
Commoncog
Data is an Added Sense
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in...
4 months ago
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in business.
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
9 months ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
Commoncog
What is Power?
Understanding how power works in business is necessary to understanding business in developing...
a month ago
Understanding how power works in business is necessary to understanding business in developing markets. A members-only mini series.
The Rational Walk
Inflation Expectations
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers...
9 months ago
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers should pay close attention to Warren Buffett's statements and actions.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #197
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
9 months ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not?
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
over a year ago
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a heatmap.
Mazdak
Protect Your iPhone: Apple Introduces Stolen Device Protection
Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device...
a year ago
Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device Protection, currently available to beta testers. This feature adds an extra layer of protection to your personal information and financial data, making it more difficult for thieves to...
balajis.com
Bond Villain
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
a year ago
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #194
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation,...
9 months ago
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons of history
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 49.3% in December
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3%...
4 days ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3% in December, up from 48.4% in November. The employment index was at 45.3%, down from 48.1% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 52.5%, up from 50.4%.
Manufacturing...
FIRE v London
Aug ’23: …
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One...
a year ago
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One was the death of Russian mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin – a larger-than-life modern day warlord, responsible for the ‘little green men’ at the start of the Russian/Ukraine war in 2014,...
Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income?
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
11 months ago
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates...
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday).
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were at 220 thousand last week.
Musings on Markets
The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor!
If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums,...
a year ago
If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. As part of that obsession, since September 2008, I have estimated an equity risk premium...
Farnam Street
[FS Members] Lessons from Rockefeller: The Upside of Patience
Long-term thinking is one of the most valuable traits of successful individuals. It demands that you...
a year ago
Long-term thinking is one of the most valuable traits of successful individuals. It demands that you forego the rewards of the immediate future and position yourself for lasting success. But long-term thinking is impossible without patience; it’s what made John D. Rockefeller one...
Citation Needed
When did cryptocurrency policy become a voter issue?
I don’t believe that it has.
5 months ago
I don’t believe that it has.
Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI)
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
10 months ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
Musings on Markets
Tesla in November 2023 : Story twists and turns, with value consequences!
I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be...
a year ago
I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be misleading, since Tesla never leaves the news. Some of that attention comes from the company's products and innovations, but much of it comes from having Elon Musk as a CEO, a man...
Mazdak
Top 10 Finance News Headlines for Thursday, November 30th, 2023 📈📰
📈 Stocks Soar: The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 500 points on Thursday, closing at...
a year ago
📈 Stocks Soar: The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 500 points on Thursday, closing at its highest level of the year. The rally was fueled by optimism about the economy and a slowdown in inflation. 🚀 💼 Peltz Takes Aim at Disney: Activist investor Nelson Peltz is...
Mazdak
Google's Gemini Enters the AI Arena: Ready to Take on OpenAI?
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This...
a year ago
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This powerful AI is set to shake things up, potentially rivaling big names like OpenAI and Microsoft. What's the Buzz About Gemini? Gemini comes in three flavors:
Citation Needed
Elon Musk and the right’s war on Wikipedia
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part...
5 days ago
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part of an intensifying campaign against free and open access information.
FIRE v London
July ’24: New UK government
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
5 months ago
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
Moneyness
China is slowly joining the economic war against Russia
I recently shared a chart on Twitter showing Chinese exports of ball bearings to Russia. Here it...
5 months ago
I recently shared a chart on Twitter showing Chinese exports of ball bearings to Russia. Here it is:
Having accelerated after Putin's invasion of Ukraine to a run-rate of around US$5-7 million per month in 2023, Chinese ball bearing exports to Russia have been ratcheted down...
Mazdak
The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
a year ago
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
Commoncog
An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two...
a year ago
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two months in: what I learnt, what was hard, and what deliberate practice actually feels like.
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
11 months ago
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
FOMC...
2 weeks ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
FOMC Statement:
lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the...
balajis.com
Network State Conference 2023
Come to Amsterdam on October 30, 2023 to build the parallel establishment.
a year ago
Come to Amsterdam on October 30, 2023 to build the parallel establishment.
Calculated Risk
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
A brief excerpt:
We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage...
Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
7 months ago
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
Farnam Street
A Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active...
over a year ago
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active participant, the experience can transform the way you think, and how you see the world. *** Here’s a situation familiar to many of us: We decide to take a vacation and go somewhere...
Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
a year ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
FIRE v London
Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK...
2 months ago
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds...
balajis.com
The Network School
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
4 months ago
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #202
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter...
7 months ago
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter syndrome, Decline of higher education, Howard Schultz, Cathie Wood, Robert Hagstrom
Commoncog
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
over a year ago
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
Citation Needed
Issue 46 – Checkmate, crypto
Cheating chess-players, cursed mansions, and more defi centralization.
a year ago
Cheating chess-players, cursed mansions, and more defi centralization.
Citation Needed
Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely...
5 months ago
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely prohibited from making its $25 million contribution to the Fairshake crypto super PAC in May 2024.
Moneyness
Pricing the anonymity of banknotes
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a
standard set of payments...
a month ago
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a
standard set of payments services, they also offer financial anonymity.
This post introduces the idea of trying to price the anonymity
component.
To help think about why we might want to price anonymous...
balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
5 months ago
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
Calculated Risk
December 27th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Mazdak
DOJ Breaks Up Google, Elden Ring Sold, and Windows Goes Meta
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will...
a month ago
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will the internet ever be the same?
Moneyness
Bitcoin as a tool of U.S. economic statecraft
Riot Platform's Rockdale, Texas facility, North America’s largest Bitcoin mining farm by developed...
5 months ago
Riot Platform's Rockdale, Texas facility, North America’s largest Bitcoin mining farm by developed capacity [source]
Can a network that has been marketed as being resistant to government power be harnessed by the U.S. administrative state in order to attain its foreign policy...
Mazdak
Nearly All US Job Growth in November Came From Just 3 Sectors!
Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's...
a year ago
Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's even more interesting is that nearly all of this job growth came from just three sectors! So, which sectors are we talking about? Healthcare: Leading the pack with a steady demand...
Mazdak
Creating a Data-Driven LinkedIn Strategy: A Step-by-Step Guide
One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its...
2 months ago
One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its performance, and adjust based on data.
Moneyness
The intensifying effort to isolate Russia's banks
Last week the U.S. government expanded the coverage of its secondary sanctions to encompass most of...
6 months ago
Last week the U.S. government expanded the coverage of its secondary sanctions to encompass most of Russia's banks. It's a very big step, one that has been long-awaited by sanctions watchers, and will likely have significant repercussions for Russia and its trading partners....
Calculated Risk
December 13th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Bits about Money
KYC and AML: beyond the acronyms
Know Your Customer policies at financial institutions have more nuance than you'd expect.
a year ago
Know Your Customer policies at financial institutions have more nuance than you'd expect.
Mazdak
Salary vs. Dividends: Picking the Right Paycheck as a Business Owner
Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner...
10 months ago
Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner faces unique financial considerations. One critical choice arises early on: to pay yourself a salary or take dividends? Understanding the pros and cons of each path empowers you to...
Moneyness
The long arm of OFAC and its reach into the Ethereum network
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving...
a year ago
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving Tornado Cash, a piece of blockchain infrastructure that was sanctioned by the U.S. government last year for providing mixing services to North Korea.
Over the last two weeks...
Moneyness
Elon Musk's understanding of payments dates back to his PayPal days. It needs an update
[This is a republication of my most recent CoinDesk opinion piece.]
You've
heard the script...
a year ago
[This is a republication of my most recent CoinDesk opinion piece.]
You've
heard the script before. Migrants need to make payments back home to
their family, but cross-border payments are achingly slow, taking days
to process. Luckily, revolutionary new technologies like...
The Rational Walk
Two Sides of the Same Coin
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the...
11 months ago
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the longer it will take to achieve financial independence.
Mazdak
Elon Musk: All In
He's the richest man in the world, a tech titan, and now...
a month ago
He's the richest man in the world, a tech titan, and now...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities!
It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget...
a year ago
It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even...
balajis.com
The Balaji Newsletter
A single place for all updates at balajis.com
a year ago
A single place for all updates at balajis.com
Moneyness
In praise of anti-money laundering thresholds
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money...
a year ago
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money laundering thresholds.
In the first story, the New York Times shows how regular folks are increasingly losing their bank accounts because their bank perceives them to be engaging in...
Musings on Markets
For the fun of it: An Open House for my Spring 2025 Classes
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me...
3 weeks ago
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me in the classes that I teach at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Since I teach these classes only in the spring, and the first sessions for each of the classes...
Commoncog
Learning About Moats the Hard Way
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end...
7 months ago
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end of his career.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #222
Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online...
2 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online Speech, Price Controls, Shakespeare's Caesar, Musk and SpaceX, Micro-Cap Investing
The Rational Walk
A Dangerous Interregnum
President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russian territory...
a month ago
President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russian territory risks plunging the world into crisis in the finals months of his administration.
Commoncog
How to Use Power
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect...
a month ago
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect yourself against them? Part two of three in a series on power in business.
Mazdak
What is QSBS?
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul...
a year ago
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul into your company, and you want to see it thrive. But taxes can eat into your profits, leaving you feeling frustrated and discouraged. That's where QSBS (Qualified Small Business...
Mazdak
News Publishers Sue Perplexity AI for Copyright Infringement
Jeff Bezos-Backed AI Faces Legal Scrutiny Over Content Scraping Allegations.
2 months ago
Jeff Bezos-Backed AI Faces Legal Scrutiny Over Content Scraping Allegations.
Calculated Risk
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $4.8 Trillion in Q3
The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the...
3 weeks ago
The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.
Click on graph for larger image.
Net worth increased $4.8 trillion in Q3 to an all-time high. As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q3 but is below the peak in...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #227
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI...
a month ago
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI Statistics, Ergodicity, The End of Shame, Notre Dame, Online Censorship, Healthcare Costs
Musings on Markets
Data Update 6 for 2023: A Wake up call for the Indebted?
We have an uneasy relationship with debt, both in our personal and business lives. While it is a...
a year ago
We have an uneasy relationship with debt, both in our personal and business lives. While it is a financial decision, it is one that is freighted with moral overtones, since almost every religion inveighs against debt's sins, labeling those who lend as sinners and those who borrow...
Mazdak
The Latest in Smartglasses Tech
From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of...
a month ago
From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of smartglasses is heating up!
The Rational Walk
The Digest #163
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's...
a year ago
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's future, Nvidia, AI, Interpreting medical studies, Why Doomberg left Twitter, Jimmy Buffett, and more...
The Rational Walk
Roth IRA Conversions For Early Retirees
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and...
2 months ago
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and avoid falling into a high tax bracket.
Bits about Money
Improving how credit cards work under the covers
Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can...
a year ago
Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can be fixed. Stripe provides examples.
FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
10 months ago
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #156
Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century...
a year ago
Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century anarchy, Buffett and Japan, Claude Hopkins, Benjamin Franklin
Calculated Risk
Friday: ISM Mfg, Vehicle Sales
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates...
4 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday).
ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.3, down from 48.4 in November.
Light vehicle sales for...
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
10 months ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
Mazdak
RRSP Guide for New Immigrants to Canada: Everything You Need to Know
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the...
a month ago
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP).
The Rational Walk
Buffett Resumes Occidental Purchases
Berkshire spent $246.4 million to acquire 3.9 million OXY shares between October 23 and October 25.
a year ago
Berkshire spent $246.4 million to acquire 3.9 million OXY shares between October 23 and October 25.
The Rational Walk
By diverse means we arrive at the same end
Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
a year ago
Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
Commoncog
Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year
A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
a year ago
A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
Musings on Markets
A Return to Teaching: The Spring 2023 Edition
If, as you read this post, it feels like you have read it or a close variant before, it is because...
over a year ago
If, as you read this post, it feels like you have read it or a close variant before, it is because you have. Each year, ahead of teaching my classes at NYU's Stern School of Business in the spring, I invite readers to accompany me on my journey, and this year is no different....
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000
The DOL reported:
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 weeks ago
The DOL reported:
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.8% YoY in November
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
2 weeks ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2024.
CPI Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in November, down from 4.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
9 months ago
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
Commoncog
Process Behaviour Charts: More Than You Need To Know
The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional...
a year ago
The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional variation. This is everything you need to know to use it well.
Musings on Markets
The Corporate Life Cycle: Corporate Finance, Valuation and Investing Implications!
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children...
4 months ago
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children are quick to point out my age, and I accept that reality, for the most part. I understand that I am too old to exercise without stretching first or eat a heaping plate of cheese...
FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
a month ago
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
The Diff
Infrastructure on top of Infrastructure
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous...
2 weeks ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous Consumption Baskets as Subtle Union-Busting; Second-Order Effects
The Rational Walk
The Digest #219
Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam...
2 months ago
Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam Zell, UK Bargains, Gregorys Coffee, Free Speech Under Assault, Dopamine and Addiction
Mazdak
Teens Obsessed with YouTube and TikTok: New Survey Reveals Usage Trends
Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew...
a year ago
Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew Research Center. This highlights the immense popularity of these video-streaming platforms among younger generations. Here are the key takeaways from the survey:
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
a year ago
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
The Diff
Where do AI Agents Get Deployed First?
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
a month ago
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
Mazdak
A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the...
a year ago
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the economy that remains ill: the office sector of the U.S. commercial real-estate market. ** What's the Problem?** Hybrid/remote work: What began as a two-week work-from-home...
Musings on Markets
The Sugar Daddy Effect? Corporate venture capital, Sovereign funds and Green Energy!
It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would...
2 months ago
It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would offend some people, as sexist or worse. I briefly considering expanding the title to "Sugar Daddies and Molasses Mommies", but that just sounds awkward, or even replacing the words...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The...
a week ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The Stoic Emperor, The Intelligent Investor, The Trail, and more.
The Diff
How High Does AI's Revenue Per User Get?
Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't...
3 weeks ago
Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't Scale Yet; Complete Markets; Legitimacy and Growth
The Rational Walk
Claim Checks
Viewing money as "claim checks" that can be exchanged for goods and services is a very useful...
5 months ago
Viewing money as "claim checks" that can be exchanged for goods and services is a very useful concept.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
a week ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth
From housing economist Tom Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Incorporate Revised Methodology for Estimating Net International Migration, Show...
The Rational Walk
Free Articles!
All articles older than six months are now free to read.
12 months ago
All articles older than six months are now free to read.
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
a year ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
Mazdak
Canada's Retail Pulse: Holiday Shopping Season Navigates Mixed Signals
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday...
a year ago
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday season. While October saw a surprising 0.7% increase in retail sales, exceeding economist expectations, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend in the face of rising...
Mazdak
The Best Age to Start Taking Social Security: It's Not What You Think
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may...
a year ago
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may want to consider taking them sooner, even if it means a smaller monthly check. Here's why: Your benefits will grow by 8% per year for each year you delay taking them, up to age...
Commoncog
Running a Fine Dining Restaurant in a Recession
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about...
5 months ago
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about operating through the capital cycle.
The Diff
Initiations
Plus! Alternative Data; Size and Momentum; The Full Audience; Same-Day
a month ago
Plus! Alternative Data; Size and Momentum; The Full Audience; Same-Day
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
a year ago
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US)
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
12 months ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
The Rational Walk
Burlington Northern Santa Fe — 2023 Results
Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
10 months ago
Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
Mazdak
Who Should You Ask for Feedback?
Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new...
a year ago
Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new ideas, and stay ahead of the competition. But not all feedback is created equal. If you want to get the most out of feedback, you need to ask the right people.
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in November
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
2 weeks ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
Moneyness
Memecoins are the point
Cypherpunks wanted to change the world. We ended up with memecoins.
Our story begins with some very...
2 months ago
Cypherpunks wanted to change the world. We ended up with memecoins.
Our story begins with some very smart and idealistic developers, known as cypherpunks, creating a new technology know as a blockchain. Blockchains are databases, but decentralized. Advertised as being...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 Results — Manufacturing, Service, and Retailing
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on...
a year ago
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on results in Q3 2023 as well as a longer term view.
Moneyness
Even crypto mixing deserves a threshold
Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically...
a year ago
Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically record and report our transactions to law enforcement. The logic behind this is that by giving up our personal data, we get more security, albeit at the cost of 1) losing our privacy,...
Musings on Markets
In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!
In every introductory finance class, you begin with the notion of a risk-free investment, and the...
a year ago
In every introductory finance class, you begin with the notion of a risk-free investment, and the rate on that investment becomes the base on which you build, to get to expected returns on risky assets and investments. In fact, the standard practice that most analysts and...
Musings on Markets
Beat your Bot: Building your moat against AI
It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest...
4 months ago
It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest mover, but Open AI introduced the world to ChatGPT on November 30, 2022. While ChatGPT itself represented a low-tech variation of AI, it opened the door to AI not only as a business...
Calculated Risk
Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts...
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential...
a week ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
Citation Needed
Substackers Against Nazis
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
a year ago
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights!
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
2 months ago
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #180
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting,...
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting, Damodaran on key person risk, Microsoft's IPO, Howard Marks and Annie Duke on risk
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked...
10 months ago
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked spectacularly well. Will Berkshire's playbook continue to perform well in the future?
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Richmond Fed...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December.
NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.
Citation Needed
Businessweek: Crypto Got What It Wanted in November’s Election. Now What?
The industry is now in a position to weaken financial rules that might protect consumers from the...
2 weeks ago
The industry is now in a position to weaken financial rules that might protect consumers from the next crypto crash.
Farnam Street
Evaluating Information: Find the Signal in the Noise
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what...
over a year ago
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what matters from what doesn’t. The good news is that you can train your brain to evaluate the quality of information. Not only can you quickly determine if someone knows what they are...
The Rational Walk
My Years with General Motors
General Motors, under the leadership of Alfred P. Sloan, capitalized on the mistakes of Henry Ford...
a year ago
General Motors, under the leadership of Alfred P. Sloan, capitalized on the mistakes of Henry Ford in the 1920s to become the dominant American automaker.
The Rational Walk
A Very Strange Public Offering
The story of the initial offering of Berkshire Hathaway's Class B stock is an excellent example of...
a year ago
The story of the initial offering of Berkshire Hathaway's Class B stock is an excellent example of Warren Buffett's unconventional approach toward his business partners.
Moneyness
It's time to trash the "store of value" function of money
When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that...
3 weeks ago
When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that money has three functions: medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value. Maybe it’s time for educators to throw out this triumvirate. It’s not very accurate.
We need a...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
----- Monday, December 23rd -----
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National...
2 weeks ago
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
----- Monday, December 23rd -----
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data.
----- Tuesday, December 24th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November. The consensus is for a 0.4%...
Commoncog
The Idea Maze is a Useless Idea
Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business...
4 months ago
Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business idea.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2024: Interest Rates in 2023 - A Rule-breaking Year!
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the...
11 months ago
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery. In this post, I look at interest rates,...
Musings on Markets
The Difference Makers: Key Person(s) Valuation
Can one person make a difference to the value of a business? Of course, and with small businesses,...
a year ago
Can one person make a difference to the value of a business? Of course, and with small businesses, especially those built around personal services (a doctor or plumber’s practice), it is part of the valuation process, where the key person is valued or at least priced and...
Musings on Markets
Fed up with Fed Talk? Fact-checking Central Banking Fairy Tales!
The big story on Wednesday, September 18, was that the Federal Reserve’s open market committee...
3 months ago
The big story on Wednesday, September 18, was that the Federal Reserve’s open market committee finally got around to “cutting rates”, and doing so by more than expected. This action, much debated and discussed during all of 2024, was greeted as "big" news, and market...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 219,000
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of
1,000 from the...
a week ago
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of
1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,500, an increase of
1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 225,500.
emphasis added
The...
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
7 months ago
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #187
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the...
11 months ago
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the market, Damodaran data updates, Apple packaging, Samsung, Big Pharma
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 — Overview
A high level overview of third quarter results and year-to-date repurchase activity.
a year ago
A high level overview of third quarter results and year-to-date repurchase activity.
The Rational Walk
Paid Subscriptions
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
8 months ago
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
6 months ago
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
Commoncog
Process Improvement is Trickier Than You Think
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because...
over a year ago
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because they're bad or lazy — but because there are system dynamics that prevent them from doing so. We take a look at what those are.
Mazdak
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed...
a year ago
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed as contributions to nonprofit organizations. Shares of Amazon fell 1.8% on Nov. 15 and 0.3% on Nov. 16. Bezos still holds 988.3 million shares of Amazon, around 10% of the company.
Mazdak
Finance News Roundup - Wednesday, 29th November
😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire...
a year ago
😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and a close associate of Warren Buffett, has passed away at the age of 97. Munger was known for his wit, wisdom, and contrarian investment style.
Mazdak
Buffett's $325 Billion Warning
Is the legendary investor Warren Buffett sounding the alarm on the market? Berkshire Hathaway,...
a month ago
Is the legendary investor Warren Buffett sounding the alarm on the market? Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett's company, is sitting on a record $325 billion in cash after selling off major chunks of Apple and Bank of America stock.
Moneyness
How my views on financial privacy have evolved over a decade
I began exploring the topic of financial privacy and payment anonymity in the early days of this...
a month ago
I began exploring the topic of financial privacy and payment anonymity in the early days of this blog. Over the past decade, my views have shifted significantly—here's how and why.
Rereading my earliest mentions of financial privacy, they now seem a bit... idealistic? extreme?...
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
3 months ago
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: around 2.4%
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter...
4 days ago
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3%. [Jan 2nd estimate]
emphasis added
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth...
Commoncog
What Rigorous Process Improvement in Education Looks Like
What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
3 months ago
What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should do this in your own organisational contexts.
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
a year ago
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
Mazdak
A Review and Analysis of "The Laws of Human Nature" by Robert Greene
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different...
11 months ago
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different approach in his 2018 book, "The Laws of Human Nature." Instead of focusing on acquiring power over others, he dives deep into the intricate workings of human psychology, unveiling...
Mazdak
ChatGPT vs. Google: The AI Search Wars
The battle for the future of search is on! ChatGPT, the AI chatbot from OpenAI, can now search the...
2 months ago
The battle for the future of search is on! ChatGPT, the AI chatbot from OpenAI, can now search the web, putting it in direct competition with Google.
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on Learning
I was learning how to program during the mid to late 90s. Finding learning material in a world...
a year ago
I was learning how to program during the mid to late 90s. Finding learning material in a world without the Internet, Google, and YouTube was incredibly challenging. I struggled to understand how pointers in C worked. Yashavant Kanetkar’s Understanding Pointers in C book helped me...
Citation Needed
Privacy, human rights, and Tornado Cash
I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
7 months ago
I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
Mazdak
Reddit CEO: Third-Party App Developers Have Made Millions, So They Should Pay for API Access
The Future of Third-Party Reddit Apps: Will They Survive the API Changes? Binance.US Lays Off 50...
a year ago
The Future of Third-Party Reddit Apps: Will They Survive the API Changes? Binance.US Lays Off 50 Employees After SEC Charges. Google Bans AI Chatbots to Protect Sensitive Information. The Future of Third-Party Reddit Apps: Will They Survive the API Changes?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #157
Munger on windowless dorms, Damodaran on country risk, Disney's brand, Working without working, The...
a year ago
Munger on windowless dorms, Damodaran on country risk, Disney's brand, Working without working, The comfort crisis, Fairfax, Markel, Vision Pro's breakthrough, iPhone hacks
Citation Needed
Issue 63 – RobConf 2024
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat...
5 months ago
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat with Lyn Alden about sexism in bitcoin.
Mazdak
The Unexpected Saviour of Journalism
In a digital landscape drowning in AI-generated noise, an unlikely hero emerges: generative AI...
a month ago
In a digital landscape drowning in AI-generated noise, an unlikely hero emerges: generative AI itself.
Moneyness
When is a stablecoin a security? The strange case of Binance and BUSD
The SEC has been hinting for several years that stablecoins may be securities. I've always found the...
a year ago
The SEC has been hinting for several years that stablecoins may be securities. I've always found the idea of regulating stablecoins as securities to be a bit odd. No one who buys a stablecoin expects to make a profit. That's because none of the big stablecoins (Tether, BUSD, or...
balajis.com
#2 - Tobi Lütke & Kaz Nejatian on Shopify's Country-Sized Economy
Listen now (127 min) | Tobi Lütke (Shopify Founder & CEO), Kaz Nejatian (Shopify COO), and Balaji...
a year ago
Listen now (127 min) | Tobi Lütke (Shopify Founder & CEO), Kaz Nejatian (Shopify COO), and Balaji review how Shopify rose from tiny startup to $180B+ global economy, with an annual GMV on par with the GDP of New Zealand. In the process they touch on Hayek, the Hanseatic League,...
Bits about Money
The business of wallets
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
8 months ago
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
Mazdak
How to Start a Cleaning Company Without Cleaning
The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion...
a year ago
The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion by 2026. This growth is being driven by a number of factors, including the increasing number of dual-income households, the growing popularity of Airbnb, and the rising demand for...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #211
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist...
4 months ago
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist investing, Perils of forecasting, Orwell's 1984, Guy Spier, Ben Thompson, Estée Lauder
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.5% YoY
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to...
The Diff
That Top-of-Cycle Feeling
Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
3 weeks ago
Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
Commoncog
Power and Asian Business
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
3 weeks ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
A brief excerpt:
Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
The Rational Walk
The Theban Plays
The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot...
3 months ago
The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot has captivated audiences for nearly 2,500 years.
Mazdak
X's Ad Business Faces Its Toughest Challenge Yet
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are...
a year ago
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are suspending ad spending on the platform. This comes in response to owner Elon Musk's endorsement of an antisemitic post, as well as to a report by Media Matters For America that...
Mazdak
AI Energy Fears: Overblown or the Next Crisis?
Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
a month ago
Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
Bits about Money
Markets in power
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
over a year ago
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
Mazdak
Twitter vs. Instagram Threads: The Battle for the Short-Form Social Media Crown
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both...
a year ago
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both offer users a way to share short-form content, but they have different approaches to how that content is displayed and consumed. Twitter is a more public platform, where anyone can...
balajis.com
The Network State Book
A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder...
over a year ago
A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder on Amazon.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #164
Howard Marks on intelligent risks, Li Lu's amazing life story, Damodaran on streaming, Thompson on...
a year ago
Howard Marks on intelligent risks, Li Lu's amazing life story, Damodaran on streaming, Thompson on Charter vs. Disney, Taleb's favorite literary works, Buffett's Japanese investments, and more ...
Mazdak
Minimize Taxes, Maximize Inheritance: A Canadian Guide to Estate Planning with Real Estate
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key...
11 months ago
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key concerns. In this context, real estate, often the largest asset, presents unique challenges and opportunities. While strategies like adding children to titles were once popular,...
balajis.com
The Network State Book
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but close to housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate).
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted...
Mazdak
Fed Signals Shift to Easing: Rate Cuts Likely in 2024, Economy Expected to Remain Solid.
The Federal Reserve is signalling a change of course, and it's music to the ears of businesses,...
a year ago
The Federal Reserve is signalling a change of course, and it's music to the ears of businesses, investors, and everyday Americans. After two years of aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation, the central bank is now laying the groundwork for a shift towards easing
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
a year ago
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
The Rational Walk
In the Zone
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to...
8 months ago
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to provide valuable insights about our health.
Commoncog
The Capital Cycle
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
a year ago
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
The Rational Walk
Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined...
8 months ago
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined ratio.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #176
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land,...
a year ago
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land, John Oliver skewers dollar stores, Apple regrets, The Great Books Journal
Musings on Markets
The Power of Expectations: Nvidia's Earnings and the Market Reaction!
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled...
4 months ago
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled for after the market closed. That call, at first sight, contained exceptionally good news, with revenues and earnings coming in at stratospheric levels, and above expectations,...
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Mostly Unchanged in November
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:
Construction spending...
5 days ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:
Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November...
Commoncog
Cultural Advantage is Counter Positioning
Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be...
over a year ago
Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be counter-positioning, not process power. Why this is surprising, and why it matters.
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates 25bp
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp...
3 weeks ago
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. However, most market participants now expect the FOMC to pause in January and are split on a rate cut at the March...
Moneyness
Do bitcoin ETFs conflict with bitcoin's original ethos?
Some folks are suggesting that a bitcoin ETF is absurd because it doesn't fit with Bitcoin's...
11 months ago
Some folks are suggesting that a bitcoin ETF is absurd because it doesn't fit with Bitcoin's original ethos. On the contrary, I think it's a nice snug fit.
It would be a misunderstanding of bitcoin's history to assume that it was the idealism of cypherpunk-ism that gave birth to...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
3 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 December. ...
Occupancy: 59.0% (+0.5%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal...
Mazdak
Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful...
a year ago
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful player in the industry. This deal puts an end to a years-long investigation into Binance. The deal: CZ agreed to pay $50 million in fines and is prohibited from operating or managing...
Citation Needed
Big publishers think libraries are the enemy
The recent Second Circuit decision in Hachette v. Internet Archive is only the latest battle in the...
3 months ago
The recent Second Circuit decision in Hachette v. Internet Archive is only the latest battle in the war on libraries and the freedom to read.
FIRE v London
May ’23: Magic megatech
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
a year ago
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
Musings on Markets
Dealing with Aging: Updating the Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks Stories!
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that...
3 months ago
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that the corporate life cycle can explain what happens to companies as they age, and why they have to adapt to aging with their actions and choices. In parallel, I also noted that...
balajis.com
The Network State Conference
Come to Amsterdam on October 30 to build the parallel establishment.
a year ago
Come to Amsterdam on October 30 to build the parallel establishment.
Mazdak
Working Out Will Change Your Life
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need...
a year ago
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need to start working out. Working out has a myriad of benefits that can improve your life in many ways. Here are just a few of the ways that working out can change your life:
The Rational Walk
Three Lessons
A few life lessons based on observations over a half century.
a year ago
A few life lessons based on observations over a half century.
Mazdak
Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and...
a year ago
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and diversify your portfolio. However, it's important to do your research and take the necessary steps to ensure a successful transition. Here are some practical tips for entrepreneurs...
Musings on Markets
The Siren Song of Sustainability: The Theocratic Trifecta's Third Leg!
You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in...
a month ago
You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in sanctimony, nurtured in hypocrisy and sold with sophistry. My voyage with ESG began with curiosity in my 2019 exploration of what it purported to measure, turned to cynicism as the...
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
10 months ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
balajis.com
Decentralizing Education with Synthesis
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
over a year ago
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
Commoncog
Eric Nehrlich on the Art of Executive Coaching and Forecasting
Cedric talks to Eric Nehrlich about driving down the error rate for Google's revenue forecasting...
a year ago
Cedric talks to Eric Nehrlich about driving down the error rate for Google's revenue forecasting from 10-20% down to 0.5%, his approach to executive coaching, and how to come up with small experiments for personal growth.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2024: A Stock Comeback - The Low Expectations Game!
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation...
11 months ago
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation out of control and a recession on the horizon. While stocks had their ups and downs during the year, they ended the year strong, and recouped, at least in the aggregate, most of...
The Rational Walk
Dollar General: Value or Value Trap?
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some...
a year ago
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some initial thoughts about the company as well as the overall retail landscape.
Commoncog
The Hospitality Solution in Your Business
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve...
3 months ago
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve (certain) business problems with hospitality, and that it only takes a little thoughtfulness to do so.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #210
Disinflation vs. Deflation, Zooming Out, Warren Buffett's Apple Sales, Teens without Smartphones,...
4 months ago
Disinflation vs. Deflation, Zooming Out, Warren Buffett's Apple Sales, Teens without Smartphones, Adam Wright, Joel Greenblatt, Robert Kierlin, Bruce Berkowitz, Jeremy Grantham
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 1
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts...
a year ago
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Take the statement, ‘I will only go for a walk if it’s nice outside AND I have free time.’ This can be neatly represented using a truth table. We can…
Citation Needed
We can have a different web
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
8 months ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest
MBA Weekly...
5 days ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest
MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two
weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week...
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
a year ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
Citation Needed
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
4 months ago
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #203
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value...
6 months ago
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value Investor's Club, Nietzsche's world view, Are wrist watches effeminate?, Seinfeld on writing
Citation Needed
Issue 64 – Pointing its arsenal at our friends
As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like...
4 months ago
As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like “Crypto4Harris”, others insist it is Harris who must “bend the knee”.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 3
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies...
a year ago
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies during the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s is a perfect case study.
Citation Needed
Fighting for our web
A talk from XOXO
3 months ago
Seeking Wisdom
Make Every Day Count
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big...
a year ago
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big project at work on time. I’d made the journey from the office to my home so many times, my car almost seemed to know the way by itself. My hands were on the wheel, but…
Mazdak
Regulating Crypto
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end...
a month ago
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end for crypto, or a necessary step towards mainstream adoption?
balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
7 months ago
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
Mazdak
Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its...
10 months ago
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its acquisition of smart TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion. This deal is far more than just about TVs; it's a strategic play by Walmart to become a major force in the booming
Mazdak
How Big Tech Could Lose Everything to Appease Trump
In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald...
2 months ago
In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald Trump, a man who has openly attacked these companies, return to power.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #224
Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending...
a month ago
Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending human lifespan, Fastenal's success story, Buffett's early investments, IKEA's founder
Calculated Risk
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
A brief...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
A brief excerpt:
During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent...
Commoncog
Renaming the Business Expertise Triad
Renaming the business expertise triad from Supply/Demand/Capital to the simpler ...
a year ago
Renaming the business expertise triad from Supply/Demand/Capital to the simpler Operations/Market/Capital.
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
FIRE v London
May ’24: UK election called
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
6 months ago
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...
Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
a year ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Evolving Estate Plan
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new...
6 months ago
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new charitable trust run by his children.
Citation Needed
Effective obfuscation
Silicon Valley's "effective altruism" and "effective accelerationism" only give a thin philosophical...
a year ago
Silicon Valley's "effective altruism" and "effective accelerationism" only give a thin philosophical veneer to the industry's same old impulses.
Moneyness
There are now two types of PayPal dollars, and one is better than the other
PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of...
a year ago
PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of opening a traditional PayPal account to maintain a balance of dollars, PayPal customers can now hold something new called PayPal USD, a crypto version of a dollar. Whereas PayPal USD...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #206
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of...
6 months ago
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of Silicon Valley, Self-esteem and outer scorecards, MMT's founder is worried about deficits
Calculated Risk
Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
a week ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
The Rational Walk
A Seamless Web of Deserved Trust
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
a year ago
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
Bits about Money
The Bond villain compliance strategy
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out...
a year ago
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out for Binance and its CEO. Spoiler: poorly.
Mazdak
The Growth Rocket Fuel of Low Gross Margin Businesses
When most people think of successful businesses, they think of businesses with high gross margins....
a year ago
When most people think of successful businesses, they think of businesses with high gross margins. After all, a high gross margin means that a business is making a lot of money on each sale. However, there are a number of successful businesses that have low gross margins. These...
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
9 months ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
The Diff
The One-Big-Side-Bet Model of Wealth Creation
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on...
a month ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on Investment Goes; Broken ETFs; Swipe Fees and Accounting
The Rational Walk
The Digest #169
Apple Watch, Musical Chairs at Dollar General, IPOs, Impact Investing, Buffett in 1988, Mapping the...
a year ago
Apple Watch, Musical Chairs at Dollar General, IPOs, Impact Investing, Buffett in 1988, Mapping the human brain, Interviews of Nassim Taleb, Jensen Huang, John and Patrick Collison, and more ...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications...
2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from
one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending December 13,...
Mazdak
More Creators Can Now Make Money on YouTube
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out...
a year ago
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out Vision for the Platform. YouTube Makes It Easier for Small Creators to Earn Money YouTube is lowering the eligibility requirements for creators to make money from their channels....
Mazdak
AI Gone Wrong? Can Chatbots Be Held Responsible for Suicide?
This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and...
2 months ago
This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and later died by suicide.
The Rational Walk
Free Articles!
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
8 months ago
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
Citation Needed
We need to talk about digital ownership
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually...
11 months ago
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually want.
Commoncog
Building a Valuable Business? It's How You Spend It That Matters
The skill of capital allocation — a mysterious, under-discussed element of remarkable business...
a year ago
The skill of capital allocation — a mysterious, under-discussed element of remarkable business performance.
Citation Needed
Issue 45 – I'm the director now
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker...
a year ago
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker decides to manifest a new job for themselves.
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase...
2 weeks ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase Since June 2021
Existing-home sales grew in November, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and remained steady in the...
Mazdak
Today's Top Tech News - Amazon's Discount Store
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
a month ago
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in...
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
NAR:...
2 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Lawler:...
Mazdak
TFSA Talk: Unlocking Tax-Free Wealth 🇨🇦
Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
2 months ago
Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
Mazdak
Information Overload? Don't Be Fooled!
In today's world of instant access and information overload, we often find ourselves bombarded with...
a year ago
In today's world of instant access and information overload, we often find ourselves bombarded with conflicting opinions and dubious advice. It can be a challenge to distinguish genuine expertise from misleading claims and unqualified opinions. This issue of our newsletter offers...
Commoncog
A Most Unlikely Master of Capital Allocation
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in...
12 months ago
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in her life, then perhaps you could, too.
FIRE v London
The richest person you know
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are...
a year ago
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are among the highest earning and/or richest people in the UK. I bet however that not many of you feel that way. Let’s start with income To be in the top 1% of earnings in… Continue...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Equilibrium
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
8 months ago
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier post first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium, oscillation,...
Full Width 
Shortcuts 
Sign Up 
Log In 
Articles 
Reading List 