Moneyness
Where now FedNow?
Earlier this month the Federal Reserve introduced its new instant retail payments system, FedNow....
a year ago
Earlier this month the Federal Reserve introduced its new instant retail payments system, FedNow. This is actually the U.S.'s second real-time retail settlement system. The first, The Clearing House's Real Time Payments Network, or RTP, opened for business back in 2017.
As FedNow...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
a week ago
Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
Commoncog
Colin Bryar on the practice of Amazon's Weekly Business Review
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of...
a year ago
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of Amazon's secret operational weapons: the Weekly Business Review.
Mazdak
OpenAI's Meltdown: A Fight for the Future of AI
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching...
a year ago
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching implications for the future of artificial intelligence (AI). OpenAI, known for its groundbreaking ChatGPT technology, is considered a frontrunner in the AI race, and its fate could...
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
9 months ago
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
Commoncog
Renaming the Business Expertise Triad
Renaming the business expertise triad from Supply/Demand/Capital to the simpler ...
a year ago
Renaming the business expertise triad from Supply/Demand/Capital to the simpler Operations/Market/Capital.
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
9 months ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
Musings on Markets
META Lesson 1: Corporate Governance
As we get deeper into earnings season for the third quarter of 2022, the biggest negative surprises...
over a year ago
As we get deeper into earnings season for the third quarter of 2022, the biggest negative surprises are coming from technology companies, with the tech giants leading the way. Investors, used to a decade of better-than-expected earnings and rising stock prices at these companies,...
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and...
5 months ago
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my...
The Rational Walk
Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023)
A life well lived
a year ago
Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
12 months ago
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
Mazdak
Canada Tax Brackets 2025 🇨🇦
As we head into 2025, understanding Canada's tax brackets is crucial for both individuals and...
3 weeks ago
As we head into 2025, understanding Canada's tax brackets is crucial for both individuals and businesses.
Citation Needed
Wind the clock
A message to those asking “what do I do now?”
a month ago
A message to those asking “what do I do now?”
Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
7 months ago
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
Moneyness
Thoughts on the Tornado Cash defence and what happens when everyone adopts it
Payments companies are regularly punished for engaging in money laundering. MoneyGram, for instance,...
8 months ago
Payments companies are regularly punished for engaging in money laundering. MoneyGram, for instance, has has to pay multiple fines. Western Union was famously busted in 2017. Meanwhile, Cash App is being probed as we speak for inadequate anti-money laundering controls.
In the...
Citation Needed
Issue 55 – Halving a bad time
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed...
8 months ago
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed fraud and Uniswap got a Wells notice.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #208
Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs...
5 months ago
Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs in 1983, Microsoft deep dive, Marks on risk, Luca Delanna on ergodicity, Guadalcanal
Calculated Risk
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $4.8 Trillion in Q3
The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the...
3 weeks ago
The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.
Click on graph for larger image.
Net worth increased $4.8 trillion in Q3 to an all-time high. As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q3 but is below the peak in...
Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
6 months ago
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #213
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects,...
3 months ago
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects, Personal Bots, Bitcoin, AI vs. Reality, "Useless" Knowledge, Jay Bowen, Rudy Havenstein
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales on Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million...
Mazdak
Compound Interest: A Comprehensive Guide
Compound interest is often called the "eighth wonder of the world" and for good reason.
2 months ago
Compound interest is often called the "eighth wonder of the world" and for good reason.
Mazdak
Nvidia Takes the Crown: The AI Chip Giant Dethrones Apple
Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
2 months ago
Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
Moneyness
Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new...
a month ago
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new and very strange policy.
All Finns were required to take out a pair of scissors and snip their banknotes in half. This was known in Finland as setelinleikkaus, or banknote cutting....
Bits about Money
Money laundering and AML compliance
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
a year ago
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
Mazdak
Canada's Retail Pulse: Holiday Shopping Season Navigates Mixed Signals
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday...
a year ago
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday season. While October saw a surprising 0.7% increase in retail sales, exceeding economist expectations, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend in the face of rising...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides,...
2 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides, Sophocles, Persian Fire, Hillbilly Elegy, and more.
Mazdak
The Unexpected Saviour of Journalism
In a digital landscape drowning in AI-generated noise, an unlikely hero emerges: generative AI...
a month ago
In a digital landscape drowning in AI-generated noise, an unlikely hero emerges: generative AI itself.
FIRE v London
From ISA $millionaire to £millionaire
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put...
4 months ago
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put £20k per year into an ISA account – use it for a wide range of investing activities – and not even have to report on what happens in those accounts, let alone pay tax on them.…...
The Rational Walk
Free Articles!
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
8 months ago
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
Mazdak
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed...
a year ago
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed as contributions to nonprofit organizations. Shares of Amazon fell 1.8% on Nov. 15 and 0.3% on Nov. 16. Bezos still holds 988.3 million shares of Amazon, around 10% of the company.
Commoncog
Understand the Shape of the Game You're Playing
What it looks like when you come up with a diagnosis for your business, a thing that is necessary...
a year ago
What it looks like when you come up with a diagnosis for your business, a thing that is necessary for strategy.
Mazdak
Canadian Mortgage Debt Growth Slows to Two-Decade Low, But Remains Elevated
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to...
a year ago
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to data from the Bank of Canada (BoC). However, mortgage debt growth remains historically high, despite the recent slowdown. The BoC's latest data shows that outstanding mortgage...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #202
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter...
7 months ago
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter syndrome, Decline of higher education, Howard Schultz, Cathie Wood, Robert Hagstrom
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
a year ago
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
a year ago
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
Mazdak
How Long (and Why) You Must Keep Every Business Record 🇨🇦
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable...
11 months ago
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable records. This isn't just about staying organized; it's about complying with the law, managing your finances, and protecting yourself from audits. But with so many rules and regulations,...
balajis.com
Bond Villain
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
a year ago
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "Flat" in November; Multi-family Billings Turn Slightly Positive
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
2 weeks ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.
ABI November 2024: Architecture firm billings remain flat
Despite the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score dipping slightly below 50 for the month, it remains close...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2024: The data speaks, but what does it say?
In January 1993, I was valuing a retail company, and I found myself wondering what a reasonable...
12 months ago
In January 1993, I was valuing a retail company, and I found myself wondering what a reasonable margin was for a firm operating in the retail business. In pursuit of an answer to that question, I used company-specific data from Value Line, one of the earliest entrants into the...
Calculated Risk
December 13th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Rational Walk
Biden’s Withdrawal and the Limits of Gaslighting
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the...
5 months ago
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the Democratic Party and allies in the mainstream media.
Mazdak
The "Buy, Borrow, Die" Strategy: How the Wealthy Avoid Taxes
The wealthy have a secret weapon when it comes to taxes: the "buy, borrow, die" strategy. This...
a year ago
The wealthy have a secret weapon when it comes to taxes: the "buy, borrow, die" strategy. This strategy allows them to avoid capital gains taxes, interest payments, and estate taxes. Here's how it works: Buy assets and hold them. This could be anything from real estate to stocks...
The Rational Walk
A Mind at Play
Claude Shannon is most famous for his groundbreaking work related to information theory, one of many...
a year ago
Claude Shannon is most famous for his groundbreaking work related to information theory, one of many subjects discussed in his fascinating biography.
Commoncog
Cultural Advantage is Counter Positioning
Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be...
over a year ago
Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be counter-positioning, not process power. Why this is surprising, and why it matters.
Moneyness
Your finances are being snooped on. Here's how
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite...
5 months ago
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite able to articulate how. We know that we're being snooped on by two groups, corporations and the government. This post will focus on how the government snoops on our transactions,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #167
TIPS for Retirement, BYD vs. Tesla, Katalin Karikó's vindication, Teledyne, Helzberg Diamonds,...
a year ago
TIPS for Retirement, BYD vs. Tesla, Katalin Karikó's vindication, Teledyne, Helzberg Diamonds, Interviews of Marc Andreessen and Shane Parrish, David Senra's review of Jimmy Buffett's autobiography
balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got
Your assets are the government's collateral.
9 months ago
Your assets are the government's collateral.
FIRE v London
In praise of Berkshire Hathaway
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the...
11 months ago
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the year 2000. I loved the story. Starting from, as the story was told back then, humble beginnings and a paper round, Warren Buffett (and Charlie – who I will stop mentioning but...
Farnam Street
[FS Members] Lessons from Rockefeller: The Upside of Patience
Long-term thinking is one of the most valuable traits of successful individuals. It demands that you...
a year ago
Long-term thinking is one of the most valuable traits of successful individuals. It demands that you forego the rewards of the immediate future and position yourself for lasting success. But long-term thinking is impossible without patience; it’s what made John D. Rockefeller one...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #190
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben...
10 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben Graham's summer on a farm, Income taxes, Interviews of Bruce Berkowitz and Howard Marks, and more...
The Rational Walk
Real Estate Adventures
Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with...
9 months ago
Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with realtors, one positive and one negative.
Mazdak
Teens Obsessed with YouTube and TikTok: New Survey Reveals Usage Trends
Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew...
a year ago
Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew Research Center. This highlights the immense popularity of these video-streaming platforms among younger generations. Here are the key takeaways from the survey:
Mazdak
Used Car Prices Drop: Should You Buy Now or Wait for Better Deals?
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has...
a year ago
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has begun to exhibit signs of a significant shift. Prices are now decelerating, presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers. This article delves into the key factors driving...
Mazdak
RRSP Guide for New Immigrants to Canada: Everything You Need to Know
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the...
a month ago
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP).
Mazdak
Anthropic's AI Breakthrough & Boeing's Q3 Disaster
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases...
2 months ago
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases mind-blowing new capabilities.
The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
10 months ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
a year ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
The Rational Walk
By diverse means we arrive at the same end
Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
a year ago
Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
The Diff
Where do AI Agents Get Deployed First?
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
a month ago
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
FIRE v London
The richest person you know
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are...
a year ago
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are among the highest earning and/or richest people in the UK. I bet however that not many of you feel that way. Let’s start with income To be in the top 1% of earnings in… Continue...
Moneyness
The magnificent Swiss 10-centime coin
The Swiss 10-centime coin has a lot to teach us about monetary economics.
On its face, the Swiss...
2 months ago
The Swiss 10-centime coin has a lot to teach us about monetary economics.
On its face, the Swiss 10-centime (rappen in German) looks like a pretty unremarkable coin. It's the second-lowest value Swiss coin, the Swiss version of America's lowly nickel, the sort of coin that many...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest
MBA Weekly...
yesterday
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest
MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two
weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week...
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
The Rational Walk
The Digest #215
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking...
3 months ago
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking Kamala Harris, Weaponizing political anger, Nick Sleep's letters, Howard Marks on risk
FIRE v London
My 20 year property returns
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But...
a year ago
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But my net worth includes an important asset class – property – that I don’t normally track, but which I have held in some form for over 20 years. So, this post takes a look at how my…...
Citation Needed
Issue 53 – Choose rich
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
9 months ago
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
The Rational Walk
Superinvestor Portfolio Changes — Q3 2023
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General,...
a year ago
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General, Markel, and Semper Augustus.
The Rational Walk
Dollar General: Value or Value Trap?
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some...
a year ago
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some initial thoughts about the company as well as the overall retail landscape.
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
A brief excerpt:
Total housing starts in November were below expectations, however, starts in September and October were revised up slightly, combined.
Total...
Musings on Markets
Tesla in November 2023 : Story twists and turns, with value consequences!
I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be...
a year ago
I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be misleading, since Tesla never leaves the news. Some of that attention comes from the company's products and innovations, but much of it comes from having Elon Musk as a CEO, a man...
The Diff
The Nvidia Way is the Regular Way, Just Faster
Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese...
a week ago
Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese Characteristics
Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
a year ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
The Diff
Initiations
Plus! Alternative Data; Size and Momentum; The Full Audience; Same-Day
3 weeks ago
Plus! Alternative Data; Size and Momentum; The Full Audience; Same-Day
Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
a year ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Questions
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five...
8 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five potential questions for the Q&A session.
FIRE v London
Jan ’23: Mr Market defuses my tax bombshell
January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during...
a year ago
January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during the month (not to Davos, no), and enjoy myself in London despite the wintry weather. What you’re paying for in Mayfair these days Market movements in January The markets on the...
Citation Needed
Not just one bad apple: FTX's practices were business as usual in crypto
Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret...
3 days ago
Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret acquisitions of “grey area” businesses, buying influence, and creative accounting.
Citation Needed
Issue 58 – Threats to the stability and integrity of Ethereum
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's...
7 months ago
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's creditors, and Biden threatens a crypto veto.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #223
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected...
a month ago
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, Market Prices as Political Predictors, The Three Indias, Semiconductor Progress
Citation Needed
Video: The charges against Binance
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant...
11 months ago
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant Binance and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, I started writing up an overview of everything that had happened to the company over the past few years. I'd written separately about a...
Mazdak
Regulating Crypto
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end...
a month ago
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end for crypto, or a necessary step towards mainstream adoption?
Citation Needed
Substackers Against Nazis
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
a year ago
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
Moneyness
A back-of-the-envelope estimate of the size of the US crypto ETF market
I'm hearing all sorts of silly projections about how big the U.S. market for a physical crypto ETFs...
a year ago
I'm hearing all sorts of silly projections about how big the U.S. market for a physical crypto ETFs will be, and how their eventual approval will drive new bitcoin demand and pump its price into the stratosphere.
To date, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has refused...
Citation Needed
Video: The Cryptocurrency Industry's Unprecedented Election Spending
Let's talk about where the money came from, where it went, the cryptocurrency industry's political...
a month ago
Let's talk about where the money came from, where it went, the cryptocurrency industry's political goals, and what’s next.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #171
American Prometheus, Buffett buys more OXY, Share repurchases, Lessons from Todd Combs, The nature...
a year ago
American Prometheus, Buffett buys more OXY, Share repurchases, Lessons from Todd Combs, The nature of risk, Damodaran on markets, Keynes on the Treaty of Versailles, Attia on longevity
Mazdak
2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to...
a year ago
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to generate human-quality text, while chipmaker Nvidia pushed the boundaries of what's possible with graphics processing units (GPUs). But amidst the hype, there were also concerns about...
Citation Needed
Issue 43 – Laser eyes
Two crypto firms emerge from bankruptcy, and a Bored Ape party turns out even worse than it sounds.
a year ago
Two crypto firms emerge from bankruptcy, and a Bored Ape party turns out even worse than it sounds.
Commoncog
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
4 months ago
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
Commoncog
Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts
Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
9 months ago
Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
Moneyness
How PayPal can use stablecoins to avoid AML requirements and make big profits
There's a new financial loophole in town: stablecoins. Stablecoins are dollar, yen, or pound-based...
9 months ago
There's a new financial loophole in town: stablecoins. Stablecoins are dollar, yen, or pound-based payments platforms that are built using crypto database technology.
Financial institutions are always looking for loopholes to game the system. Typically this has meant avoiding...
balajis.com
Only Newsom Can Go To China
If Nixon and Mao came to an accord, so might Newsom and Xi.
a year ago
If Nixon and Mao came to an accord, so might Newsom and Xi.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates...
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday).
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were at 220 thousand last week.
Citation Needed
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
3 months ago
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 — Overview
A high level overview of third quarter results and year-to-date repurchase activity.
a year ago
A high level overview of third quarter results and year-to-date repurchase activity.
Mazdak
The Big News: ChatGPT Pays Up for Content, Ushering in a New Era for Media & AI
Get ready for a paradigm shift, folks! News just dropped that OpenAI, the brains behind ChatGPT, has...
a year ago
Get ready for a paradigm shift, folks! News just dropped that OpenAI, the brains behind ChatGPT, has signed a multi-year licensing deal with Axel Springer, the media giant behind Politico and Business Insider. This isn't just any deal, it's a game-changer
Moneyness
AML works, even if it intercepts less than 1% of criminal proceeds. Here's how
Critics of anti-money laundering (AML) often point to the fact that just a tiny fraction of 1% of...
a year ago
Critics of anti-money laundering (AML) often point to the fact that just a tiny fraction of 1% of criminal proceeds are seized every year, their point being that AML is not working. Either update our approach to AML, they say, or just throw in the towel and legalize money...
Musings on Markets
META Lesson 2: Accounting Inconsistencies and Consequences
In my last post, I used Facebook's recent troubles to talk about the importance of corporate...
over a year ago
In my last post, I used Facebook's recent troubles to talk about the importance of corporate governance, and how we, as investors, have abandoned the power to change management at many younger tech companies in return for being able to invest in young tech companies, with growth...
Commoncog
Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a...
a year ago
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a deliberate practice training program isn't as difficult as you might think.
balajis.com
The Fiat Crisis
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
a year ago
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
Moneyness
Inflation as a tax
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order...
a year ago
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order to fight his wars. This provided Henry with the financial firepower to annex the city of Boulogne from the French in 1544, albeit at the price of England experiencing one of its...
Mazdak
Multifamily Real Estate Investment
Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential...
a year ago
Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential properties with three or more units. It can be a good investment for a number of reasons, including: Potential for high cash flow. Multifamily properties can generate a steady stream of...
Mazdak
Working Out Will Change Your Life
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need...
a year ago
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need to start working out. Working out has a myriad of benefits that can improve your life in many ways. Here are just a few of the ways that working out can change your life:
Mazdak
The Rise of Nvidia and the Fall of Intel
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its...
2 months ago
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its influence in the tech world.
Musings on Markets
Disagreements and First Principles: The Pushback on my Tesla Valuation
I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago, and as has always been the...
a year ago
I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago, and as has always been the case when I value this company, I have heard from both sides of the Tesla divide. Some of you believe that I am being far too generous in my forecasts of revenues and profitability...
Mazdak
The Future of Healthcare: Your AI Health Pod is Here! 🩺
Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and...
a year ago
Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and hello to the CarePod, your self-contained doctor's office powered by artificial intelligence. Imagine: Stepping into a futuristic pod at your local mall, gym, or even office...
Calculated Risk
Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
3 days ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Moneyness
Top 13 blog posts
I've been writing on this blog for a while now – over ten years. Many of those posts are now...
a year ago
I've been writing on this blog for a while now – over ten years. Many of those posts are now forgotten (by myself included), but some were pretty popular at the time, and a few still get a steady stream of readers. Someone recently asked me for a list of my top ranked posts...
Mazdak
Inside xAI: Musk vs. OpenAI
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his...
a month ago
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his former company, OpenAI, to do it.
Mazdak
RRSP vs TFSA: Making the Right Choice for Your Financial Future
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful...
2 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful investment vehicles available to Canadians.
Moneyness
Are flatcoins a good idea?
I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea.
The idea for flatcoins has...
a year ago
I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea.
The idea for flatcoins has been around for a while, but it got a wider airing when it popped up in a Coinbase marketing piece from earlier this year. Now, arch-crypto hater Nouriel Roubini has undergone a...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #187
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the...
11 months ago
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the market, Damodaran data updates, Apple packaging, Samsung, Big Pharma
Calculated Risk
Monday: Pending Home Sales
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for...
4 days ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December.
Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index.
Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last of regional...
Citation Needed
Elon Musk and the right’s war on Wikipedia
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part...
13 hours ago
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part of an intensifying campaign against free and open access information.
Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦)
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
11 months ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
Moneyness
A glass half-full take on Caucasus sanctions evasion
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being...
3 months ago
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being carried out through the Caucasus. He visits the Lars border crossing between Georgia and Russia to document how smugglers are openly moving British and German luxury cars into Russia, in...
Commoncog
Stan Slap on the Art of Building Effective Employee Cultures
Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent...
a month ago
Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent model for shaping employee culture.
balajis.com
The Balaji Newsletter
A single place for all updates at balajis.com
a year ago
A single place for all updates at balajis.com
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked...
10 months ago
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked spectacularly well. Will Berkshire's playbook continue to perform well in the future?
Citation Needed
Issue 48 – Bitcoin has "no chance" of going to the moon
Bitcoin ETF fakeouts, imaginary CEOs, and a bridge hack make for an eventful start to the new year.
11 months ago
Bitcoin ETF fakeouts, imaginary CEOs, and a bridge hack make for an eventful start to the new year.
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
a year ago
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
Citation Needed
Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely...
5 months ago
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely prohibited from making its $25 million contribution to the Fairshake crypto super PAC in May 2024.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #159
Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning...
a year ago
Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning books, How Threads was built, BYD challenges Tesla, Katalin Karikó's inspiring life
The Rational Walk
The Digest #191
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel...
10 months ago
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel shareholders, Investing lessons from Earnest Shackleton, Google's Gemini AI goes off the rails
The Rational Walk
The Digest #221
Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro:...
2 months ago
Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro: Success or Failure?, Berkshire in the 1960s, Whole Foods, Black Diamond, Merck, Wormholes
Commoncog
What’s an Operational Definition Anyway?
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most...
a year ago
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most principles in SPC, this is both simpler and more important than you might think.
The Rational Walk
Roth IRA Conversions For Early Retirees
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and...
2 months ago
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and avoid falling into a high tax bracket.
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual...
2 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in...
Musings on Markets
Good Intentions, Perverse Outcomes: The Impact of Impact Investing!
I have made no secret of my disdain for ESG, an over-hyped and over-sold acronym, that has been a...
a year ago
I have made no secret of my disdain for ESG, an over-hyped and over-sold acronym, that has been a gravy train for a whole host of players, including fund managers, consultants and academics. In response, I have been told that the problem is not with the idea of ESG, but in its...
Musings on Markets
Catastrophic Risk: Investing and Business Implications
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers...
10 months ago
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers on companies that I should value next. While I don't have the time or the bandwidth to value all of the suggested companies, a reader from Iceland, a couple of weeks ago, made a...
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
a year ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #198
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How...
7 months ago
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How to spend your days, AI and productivity
Musings on Markets
The Difference Makers: Key Person(s) Valuation
Can one person make a difference to the value of a business? Of course, and with small businesses,...
a year ago
Can one person make a difference to the value of a business? Of course, and with small businesses, especially those built around personal services (a doctor or plumber’s practice), it is part of the valuation process, where the key person is valued or at least priced and...
balajis.com
No Cap
Fed-killed banks took $100B+ from BTFP to stay afloat, but who's counting?
a year ago
Fed-killed banks took $100B+ from BTFP to stay afloat, but who's counting?
The Rational Walk
Apple’s Dystopian iPad Video
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision...
7 months ago
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision crushing symbols of art and culture.
Farnam Street
Language: Why We Hear More Than Words
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me...
over a year ago
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me forgetting her birthday! Then why is she throwing dishes in the kitchen? Are the two things related? I wish I had a translator for my spouse. What is going on?” The answer: Extreme...
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
5 months ago
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #186
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment...
11 months ago
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment checklists, Shane Parrish interviews Tom Gayner, Novo Nordisk, Howard Marks on interest rates
Calculated Risk
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up...
a week ago
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough). I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a...
Mazdak
X's Ad Business Faces Its Toughest Challenge Yet
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are...
a year ago
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are suspending ad spending on the platform. This comes in response to owner Elon Musk's endorsement of an antisemitic post, as well as to a report by Media Matters For America that...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #161
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy...
a year ago
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy band-aid; Plus insights from Todd Combs, Michael Burry, Joel Tillinghast, and Lee Ainslie.
Mazdak
AI's Energy Problem: Can We Power Progress Without Wrecking the Planet? ⚡️🌎
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai...
a year ago
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai for COP28, it's more important than ever to understand the complex relationship between AI and climate change. Why it matters: AI could become one of the biggest energy guzzlers on...
Commoncog
Process Behaviour Charts: More Than You Need To Know
The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional...
a year ago
The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional variation. This is everything you need to know to use it well.
Citation Needed
We need to talk about digital ownership
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually...
10 months ago
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually want.
Citation Needed
Issue 71 – (Crypto) banks are not your friends
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech...
4 weeks ago
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech billionaires complain about “debanking”.
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.4% to 3.1%
From Goldman:
Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4%...
a week ago
From Goldman:
Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3% [Dec 20th estimate]
emphasis added
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model...
Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
6 months ago
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
Mazdak
Popular Business Tips That Are Actually Hurting Your Success
In the age of LinkedIn influencers and business gurus, we're bombarded with seemingly wise advice...
a month ago
In the age of LinkedIn influencers and business gurus, we're bombarded with seemingly wise advice that often does more harm than good.
Citation Needed
Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me?
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto...
8 months ago
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto criminals. Also, lawmakers take another stab at stablecoin regulation.
The Rational Walk
Herodotus
Herodotus is often described as the father of history for his narrative of the Greco-Persian Wars of...
5 months ago
Herodotus is often described as the father of history for his narrative of the Greco-Persian Wars of the fifth century BC.
Moneyness
Who are the money launderers in the Tornado Cash stack?
Over the last few years I've written a bunch of posts about Tornado Cash, an Ethereum-based mixing...
a year ago
Over the last few years I've written a bunch of posts about Tornado Cash, an Ethereum-based mixing service, because I find it to be a fascinating tool. With the recent indictment of two people involved in the Tornado Cash "stack" for money laundering, here's another post to add...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #220
The Intelligent Investor, Antitrust and Big Tech, Berkshire Hathaway's Moat, Nuclear War Risks, The...
2 months ago
The Intelligent Investor, Antitrust and Big Tech, Berkshire Hathaway's Moat, Nuclear War Risks, The Invisible Man, AIG's Rise & Fall, Housing Prices, Barbary Wars, Speeches of Pericles
Mazdak
Can Quantum Break Crypto? Trump to Rescue TikTok? Tech in Defence ...
Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
a week ago
Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
Calculated Risk
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
A brief excerpt:
We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage...
The Rational Walk
Claim Checks
Viewing money as "claim checks" that can be exchanged for goods and services is a very useful...
5 months ago
Viewing money as "claim checks" that can be exchanged for goods and services is a very useful concept.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #157
Munger on windowless dorms, Damodaran on country risk, Disney's brand, Working without working, The...
a year ago
Munger on windowless dorms, Damodaran on country risk, Disney's brand, Working without working, The comfort crisis, Fairfax, Markel, Vision Pro's breakthrough, iPhone hacks
The Rational Walk
The Digest #164
Howard Marks on intelligent risks, Li Lu's amazing life story, Damodaran on streaming, Thompson on...
a year ago
Howard Marks on intelligent risks, Li Lu's amazing life story, Damodaran on streaming, Thompson on Charter vs. Disney, Taleb's favorite literary works, Buffett's Japanese investments, and more ...
Moneyness
Central bank digital currencies and the fallacy of immaculate adoption
I recently noticed that the Bank of Jamaica, Jamaica's central bank, has implemented two new...
a year ago
I recently noticed that the Bank of Jamaica, Jamaica's central bank, has implemented two new marketing strategies to drive adoption of its new central bank digital currency, Jam-Dex. Jam-Dex is one of only four operational central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in the world,...
Mazdak
Google Quantum Computer, OpenAI Sora Video Generator and more ...
Google just dropped a bombshell in quantum computing.
3 weeks ago
Google just dropped a bombshell in quantum computing.
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
a year ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
The Rational Walk
The Odyssey
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
8 months ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
FIRE v London
10 year review
Wahoop! I have made it through ten years. In fact, I’ve had a trackable portfolio for over 20 years....
a year ago
Wahoop! I have made it through ten years. In fact, I’ve had a trackable portfolio for over 20 years. But 10 years ago I started tracking my portfolio in a consistent, monthly way – unitising its performance so I could measure its return. It wasn’t until 2015 that I started this...
The Rational Walk
My Years with General Motors
General Motors, under the leadership of Alfred P. Sloan, capitalized on the mistakes of Henry Ford...
a year ago
General Motors, under the leadership of Alfred P. Sloan, capitalized on the mistakes of Henry Ford in the 1920s to become the dominant American automaker.
FIRE v London
Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an...
10 months ago
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an impulse while travelling back from the Coastal Folly. My main frame of reference to the cathedral being those notorious Russian nerve agent assassins citing it as their reason for...
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
2 months ago
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
Citation Needed
The stones left unturned in the Sam Bankman-Fried trial
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many...
a year ago
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many questions remain about what happened at Bankman-Fried's crypto empire.
Mazdak
Inflation is Cooling Off: A Glimpse of Economic Stability ☀️
📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic....
a year ago
📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic. The moderation of inflation is a significant development that alleviates pressure on consumers and provides central banks with some breathing room. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's...
Moneyness
The effects of Russian sanctions as portrayed in YouTube videos
Last month American provocateur Tucker Carlson visited a Russian grocery store. Because it was...
9 months ago
Last month American provocateur Tucker Carlson visited a Russian grocery store. Because it was filled to the brim with food, Carlson claims that western sanctions placed on Russia aren't having an effect. "We've been told sanctions on Russia have had a devastating effect on its
...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #217
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The...
3 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The Fed's Inflationary Bias, Jimmy Carter at 100, Sam Altman, Bruno Leoni, Thermopylae
Calculated Risk
Census: The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024
From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades...
2 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades
The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, according to the new Vintage 2024 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
As the nation’s...
Seeking Wisdom
What I learned from Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics Course at FLAME University
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University....
over a year ago
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University. Being his student since 2011, I realized my dream by sitting in his class for 3.5 days. Prof. Bakshi taught us around 20 different models from Charlie Munger’s Psychology of Human...
Moneyness
Crypto adoption in America
Source: America Loves Crypto
You may have recently come across the America Loves Crypto...
a year ago
Source: America Loves Crypto
You may have recently come across the America Loves Crypto marketing campaign, sponsored by Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange. In an attempt to promote the voting power of crypto owners, the website makes the claim that 52 million...
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
7 months ago
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
Musings on Markets
The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor!
If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums,...
a year ago
If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. As part of that obsession, since September 2008, I have estimated an equity risk premium...
Mazdak
Income Splitting with a Lower-Income Spouse: Strategies and Considerations 🇨🇦
Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be...
10 months ago
Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be powerful tools for maximizing tax benefits and building wealth. This article explores various strategies for couples where one spouse earns significantly more than the other,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #218
Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles,...
2 months ago
Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles, Doing what you love, Human aging, Ray Ozzie on intelligent machines, Aesop's Fables
Citation Needed
Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x"
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
11 months ago
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
Mazdak
Anthropic's AI Breakthrough & Boeing's Q3 Disaster
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases...
2 months ago
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases mind-blowing new capabilities.
Moneyness
There are now two types of PayPal dollars, and one is better than the other
PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of...
a year ago
PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of opening a traditional PayPal account to maintain a balance of dollars, PayPal customers can now hold something new called PayPal USD, a crypto version of a dollar. Whereas PayPal USD...
Calculated Risk
Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase...
a week ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Projections
Statement here.
press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM...
2 weeks ago
Statement here.
press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
projections. Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and inflation close to expectations (although...
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and...
3 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November
Happy New Year! Best wishes for 2025, Bill
Here are the multi-family 60+ day delinquency rate since 2006.
There is much more...
FIRE v London
May ’24: UK election called
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
6 months ago
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
10 months ago
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
Musings on Markets
Tesla in 2023: A Return to Reality, The Start of the End or Time to Buy?
I am not much of a car person and view cars primarily as a mode of transportation. I drive a 2010...
a year ago
I am not much of a car person and view cars primarily as a mode of transportation. I drive a 2010 Honda Civic, a perfectly serviceable vehicle that is never going to get oohs and ahas from onlookers, but I feel no urge to value Honda. I don't own a Tesla, and have only driven...
The Rational Walk
Improving Disclosure for Public Companies
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing...
9 months ago
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing three simple proposals.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #175
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount...
a year ago
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount rates, Evolving moats, Jay Gould, Garry Tan, Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Steve Ells
Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
a year ago
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #197
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
8 months ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
FIRE v London
May ’23: Magic megatech
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
a year ago
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
The Rational Walk
The Sad Irons
During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill...
a year ago
During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill Country. Success was integral to his path to greater power.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in...
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
NAR:...
a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Lawler:...
Musings on Markets
Breach of Trust: Decoding the Banking Crisis
In March 2023, the fall of Silicon Valley Bank shocked investors not only because it was unforeseen,...
a year ago
In March 2023, the fall of Silicon Valley Bank shocked investors not only because it was unforeseen, but also because of the speed with which it unfolded. That failure has had a domino effect, with Signature Bank falling soon after, followed by Credit Suisse in April 2023 and by...
Citation Needed
Fighting for our web
A talk from XOXO
2 months ago
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights!
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
2 months ago
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #216
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement",...
3 months ago
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement", Caro's writing process, Buffett's ground rules, Sherwin Williams, Mysterious owls
Calculated Risk
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to All!
High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!)
beach in Newport.
Best Wishes to All!
a week ago
High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!)
beach in Newport.
Best Wishes to All!
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
8 months ago
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
Calculated Risk
Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with...
a week ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
Commoncog
Power and Asian Business
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
3 weeks ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
Mazdak
Unlocking Tax Savings and Building Wealth for Your Children: A Smart Strategy for Business Owners
As a business owner, you're constantly seeking ways to optimize your operations, reduce costs, and...
a year ago
As a business owner, you're constantly seeking ways to optimize your operations, reduce costs, and maximize profits. But have you considered a strategy that not only benefits your business but also sets your children up for financial success? The concept of hiring your children...
Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
2 months ago
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
Bits about Money
Deposit franchises as natural hedges
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest...
a year ago
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest rates. How did we get here?
balajis.com
The Network State Book
A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder...
over a year ago
A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder on Amazon.
FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
9 months ago
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
Citation Needed
Effective obfuscation
Silicon Valley's "effective altruism" and "effective accelerationism" only give a thin philosophical...
a year ago
Silicon Valley's "effective altruism" and "effective accelerationism" only give a thin philosophical veneer to the industry's same old impulses.
Moneyness
Elon Musk's understanding of payments dates back to his PayPal days. It needs an update
[This is a republication of my most recent CoinDesk opinion piece.]
You've
heard the script...
a year ago
[This is a republication of my most recent CoinDesk opinion piece.]
You've
heard the script before. Migrants need to make payments back home to
their family, but cross-border payments are achingly slow, taking days
to process. Luckily, revolutionary new technologies like...
The Rational Walk
Concentrated Investments
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the...
a year ago
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the company. What are the risks of concentrated investments in general and Berkshire in particular?
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not?
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
over a year ago
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a heatmap.
FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
3 weeks ago
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
Mazdak
Who Should You Ask for Feedback?
Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new...
a year ago
Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new ideas, and stay ahead of the competition. But not all feedback is created equal. If you want to get the most out of feedback, you need to ask the right people.
balajis.com
Too Fake to Tell
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
a year ago
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
The Rational Walk
The Trust Deficit
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the...
6 months ago
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the urgent need to correct course.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities!
It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget...
a year ago
It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Construction Spending
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates...
yesterday
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday).
mortgage purchase applications index.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 223...
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023!
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
10 months ago
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
Mazdak
2024: The Year the Economy Wins?
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a...
a year ago
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a potential shift towards a more balanced and stable environment. While challenges and uncertainties remain, let's explore the key trends and strategic insights that can guide us...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd...
2 weeks ago
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays.
----- Monday, December 16th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
Moneyness
What does the recent ruling on the Emergencies Act mean for your banking rights?
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy...
11 months ago
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy protest in 2022 contravened the protestor's rights. In this post I want to provide my reading of this particular ruling and what is at stake for Canadians and their bank...
Calculated Risk
Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 days ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests
Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and...
3 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and now is the sole owner of the energy company.
Citation Needed
Issue 47 – Residual garbage
All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
a year ago
All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
Moneyness
The long arm of OFAC and its reach into the Ethereum network
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving...
a year ago
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving Tornado Cash, a piece of blockchain infrastructure that was sanctioned by the U.S. government last year for providing mixing services to North Korea.
Over the last two weeks...
The Rational Walk
Paid Subscriptions
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
8 months ago
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
Moneyness
Who should pay for scams? Victims or their banks?
Scam call centre on CCTV, via BBC.
Here's a question for you. Should banks be required to...
a year ago
Scam call centre on CCTV, via BBC.
Here's a question for you. Should banks be required to reimburse customers who have been scammed?
I was recently reading a CBC article about a 63-year old Toronto man who responded to a phone call from a scammer claiming to be a Bank of...
Moneyness
Coinbase: "What if we call them rewards instead of interest payments?"
Here's a question for you: which U.S. financial institutions are legally permitted to pay interest...
a year ago
Here's a question for you: which U.S. financial institutions are legally permitted to pay interest to retail customers?
We can get an answer by canvassing the range of entities currently offering interest-paying dollar accounts to U.S. retail customers. It pretty much boils...
Citation Needed
We can have a different web
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
8 months ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
Mazdak
Tech Today - Apple Smart Home Camera
Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
a month ago
Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
The Diff
Infrastructure on top of Infrastructure
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous...
2 weeks ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous Consumption Baskets as Subtle Union-Busting; Second-Order Effects
Mazdak
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Advertising Monopoly.
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. iPhone 15 Pro Max: Everything We Know So Far About...
a year ago
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. iPhone 15 Pro Max: Everything We Know So Far About Apple's Next Flagship. Reddit Protests Continue as Company Threatens to Remove Moderators. Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. Gannett, the largest U.S. newspaper chain, has...
Commoncog
Data is an Added Sense
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in...
4 months ago
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in business.
The Rational Walk
Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on...
7 months ago
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on education, ethics, religion, and many other subjects.
Moneyness
For the first time ever, euro paper money in circulation is shrinking
Why is the paper euro shrinking? Are we at peak cash?
To begin with, here is the data,...
a year ago
Why is the paper euro shrinking? Are we at peak cash?
To begin with, here is the data, charted:
As the orange line shows, Europe is experiencing its first year-over-year drop in paper money in circulation.
While it's tempting to attribute this to paper money's declining...
Moneyness
Why is Binance leaving Canada?
Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, announced last month that it would be exiting Canada....
a year ago
Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, announced last month that it would be exiting Canada. At the time, it blamed "new guidance" issued by Canada's securities regulators. We now have an even more detailed explanation from Binance about the nature of this "new guidance."...
Moneyness
Are the sanctions on Russia working?
I very much enjoy economist Robin Brooks's tweets, especially his charts showing how sanctions...
9 months ago
I very much enjoy economist Robin Brooks's tweets, especially his charts showing how sanctions imposed on Russia have affected regional trade patterns. While direct trade between Europe and Russia has collapsed thanks to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, the...
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
a year ago
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Meeting
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage purchase applications index.
Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.344 million SAAR, up from 1.311 million SAAR.
Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator...
The Rational Walk
There’s Always a Reason
Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an...
a year ago
Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an important option for customers chronically short on cash.
The Rational Walk
The Use of Letters
As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It...
a year ago
As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It makes no sense to refuse to learn vicariously.
Mazdak
AI Fuels Alphabet's Growth
Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
2 months ago
Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
Commoncog
An Increase in Membership Prices
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old...
a year ago
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #201
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
7 months ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
Calculated Risk
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
A brief...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
A brief excerpt:
During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2023: Setting the table!
In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each...
a year ago
In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the first of a series of posts that I make at the start of each year, where I look at data, both macro and company-level. In this post, I...
Bits about Money
Improving how credit cards work under the covers
Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can...
a year ago
Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can be fixed. Stripe provides examples.
Citation Needed
New York Times: Crypto's fragile foundations
My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency...
a year ago
My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency industry that can lead to death spirals like the one at FTX.
Mazdak
Subscription Overload: The Rise of Recurring Revenue
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches...
a year ago
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches onto the subscription business model. This is because businesses can make more money up-front and over time by selling subscriptions and building loyalty. They can also mine...
The Rational Walk
Thucydides
Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between...
4 months ago
Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between 431 - 404 BC.
FIRE v London
Mayday for IBKR margin lending
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No...
a year ago
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No longer. If you’ve read my other posts (like this or this or this) on margin lending, and are interested in exploring further, make you read this post before you do. Why I used to like...
balajis.com
The Mirrortable
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and...
over a year ago
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and internationalize the logistical mess of angel investing.
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.2% in November; Up 6.9% Year-over-year
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of...
4 days ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of Increases
Pending home sales gained 2.2% in November – the fourth consecutive month of increases and the highest level since February 2023 – according to the National Association of REALTORS®....
Musings on Markets
Data Update 6 for 2023: A Wake up call for the Indebted?
We have an uneasy relationship with debt, both in our personal and business lives. While it is a...
a year ago
We have an uneasy relationship with debt, both in our personal and business lives. While it is a financial decision, it is one that is freighted with moral overtones, since almost every religion inveighs against debt's sins, labeling those who lend as sinners and those who borrow...
Moneyness
Someone is wrong on the internet about the SWIFT network
There's a chart that has been circulating for a while now on social media that shows payments...
6 days ago
There's a chart that has been circulating for a while now on social media that shows payments traffic on SWIFT, a key global financial messaging network. Below is a version from the Economist, but I've seen other versions too.
Source: The Economist
When banks make...
Commoncog
Under The Hood
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
a month ago
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
Farnam Street
Reciprocity: Getting What You Give
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics,...
over a year ago
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics, Chemistry and Biology Reciprocity teaches us why win-win relationships are the way to go, why waiters leave candies with the bill, why it’s a good idea to use the least force possible...
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence, Gemini 2.0, Amazon Autos and more
Apple just redefined how we use Siri.
3 weeks ago
Apple just redefined how we use Siri.
Bits about Money
BAM's Early Adopter discount ends soon
Bits about Money's Early Adopter discount ends on January 31st, 2023.
a year ago
Bits about Money's Early Adopter discount ends on January 31st, 2023.
The Rational Walk
The Power of Investment Journals
Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles...
a year ago
Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles explores lessons I learned dating back to 2009.
Mazdak
Jury Delivers Major Blow to Google in Antitrust Case: Play Store Deemed Illegal Monopoly
In a historic ruling that could shake the foundations of the mobile app ecosystem, a federal jury...
a year ago
In a historic ruling that could shake the foundations of the mobile app ecosystem, a federal jury has found Google Play guilty of violating antitrust laws in a lawsuit brought by Epic Games. This landmark decision has sent shockwaves through the tech industry and raised questions...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus,...
6 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus, Herodotus, the Odyssey, and American Scripture.
Commoncog
Charlie Munger’s Supply Demand Curve Puzzle
What a puzzle from Charlie Munger tells us about a supply-side business model with unreasonably high...
a year ago
What a puzzle from Charlie Munger tells us about a supply-side business model with unreasonably high returns.
FIRE v London
Sep ’24: Ominous politics, juicy economics
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the...
2 months ago
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the Solent. I made it to the Labour party conference in Liverpool, which was fascinating albeit wet. I am apparently firmly in the tax-raising sights of the Government, but I wasn’t the...
Moneyness
It's time to impose Iran-calibre sanctions on Russia
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long...
12 months ago
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long list of sanctions that the G7 coalition has placed on Russia in response to its attack on Ukraine are surprisingly light compared to the fewer but far more-draconian sanctions...
The Rational Walk
New Articles Moving to Newsletter
Effective today, I will no longer post new articles to this website, rationalwalk.com. All new...
a year ago
Effective today, I will no longer post new articles to this website, rationalwalk.com. All new articles will be posted on my Substack at newsletter.rationalwalk.com.
Mazdak
A Brighter Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024?
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples...
a year ago
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples through the housing market, sparking both excitement and cautious optimism among prospective buyers and existing homeowners alike. While the prospect of lower mortgage rates is...
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
9 months ago
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
The Rational Walk
Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined...
8 months ago
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined ratio.
Mazdak
Why 2024 will be the year of the Delivery Drone?
For years, drone delivery has hovered on the horizon, a tantalizing glimpse of a futuristic utopia...
a year ago
For years, drone delivery has hovered on the horizon, a tantalizing glimpse of a futuristic utopia where packages pirouette through the air and land at our doorsteps with clockwork precision. But 2024 marks a pivotal juncture, a year where the sci-fi fantasy transforms into a...
Mazdak
Meta Fined & FBI on Polymarket
Meta slapped with a HUGE EU fine, the FBI is investigating Polymarket...
a month ago
Meta slapped with a HUGE EU fine, the FBI is investigating Polymarket...
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
10 months ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
Seeking Wisdom
Ruturaj Gaikwad, P-value, and Bayes’ Theorem
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is...
7 months ago
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is my favorite team. Ruturaj Gaikwad, the new CSK captain for the IPL 2024 season, lost 10 out of 13 tosses: LLLLWLLLLLLWL. The probability of seeing the sequence LLLLWLLLLLLWL is...
balajis.com
Network State Conference 2023
Come to Amsterdam on October 30, 2023 to build the parallel establishment.
a year ago
Come to Amsterdam on October 30, 2023 to build the parallel establishment.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope
Last week...
2 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope
Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. In fact, on a few...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in...
9 months ago
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in the game, repurchase activity, and stock based compensation.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #226
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
a month ago
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
Mazdak
Protect Your iPhone: Apple Introduces Stolen Device Protection
Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device...
a year ago
Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device Protection, currently available to beta testers. This feature adds an extra layer of protection to your personal information and financial data, making it more difficult for thieves to...
Musings on Markets
Invisible, yet Invaluable: Valuing Intangibles in the Birkenstock IPO!
A few days ago, I valued Instacart ahead of its initial public offering, and noted that the...
a year ago
A few days ago, I valued Instacart ahead of its initial public offering, and noted that the reception that the stock gets will be a good barometer of where risk capital stands in the market, right now. After a buzzy open, when the stock jumped from its offering price of $30 a...
balajis.com
The Elondrop
Build the political support necessary to free Twitter with the largest airdrop in history.
over a year ago
Build the political support necessary to free Twitter with the largest airdrop in history.
Citation Needed
Big publishers think libraries are the enemy
The recent Second Circuit decision in Hachette v. Internet Archive is only the latest battle in the...
3 months ago
The recent Second Circuit decision in Hachette v. Internet Archive is only the latest battle in the war on libraries and the freedom to read.
The Rational Walk
In the Zone
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to...
8 months ago
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to provide valuable insights about our health.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #176
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land,...
a year ago
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land, John Oliver skewers dollar stores, Apple regrets, The Great Books Journal
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
11 months ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
Commoncog
Commoncog's Next Phase
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains...
a year ago
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains series free, and one more thing.
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.3% Range
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to...
2 weeks ago
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to
3.0% q/q saar. Additionally, our 4Q US GDP tracker was unchanged at 2.1% q/q saar. [Dec 13th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final...
The Rational Walk
The Thirty Second Mind
Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
11 months ago
Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates 25bp
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp...
2 weeks ago
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. However, most market participants now expect the FOMC to pause in January and are split on a rate cut at the March...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #177
Remembering Charlie Munger
a year ago
Remembering Charlie Munger
Mazdak
OpenAI in Turmoil: Altman and Brockman Join Microsoft, Employees Revolt
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the...
a year ago
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the non-profit research company behind groundbreaking artificial intelligence advancements, are joining Microsoft to lead a new research unit. This move comes after failed talks to reinstate...
Calculated Risk
Ten Economic Questions for 2025
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024.
I'll follow up with some thoughts on each...
a week ago
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024.
I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions.
We can assume the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will be extended. That larger tariffs will be imposed on some imports, and there will be some...
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 30th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.5% Week-over-week, Up 26.8% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week.
Inventory will...
4 days ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week.
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in late January or February.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory...
Commoncog
The Shape of a Technological Window
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how...
over a year ago
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how he used it over the course of his career. Note: this is a follow-up to and an update for the Commoncog Case Library Beta.
Moneyness
It's time to get rid of "crypto"
Call me a pedant, but I'm not a fan of the word "crypto". It may have been a serviceable category...
10 months ago
Call me a pedant, but I'm not a fan of the word "crypto". It may have been a serviceable category back in 2011 when there was only one type of crypto thingy – bitcoin. But it's ceased to be a meaningful term and, if anything, it causes a regression in understanding.
Source:...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 7 for 2023: Dividends, Buybacks and Cash Flows
This is the last of my data update posts for 2023, and in this one, I will focus on dividends and...
a year ago
This is the last of my data update posts for 2023, and in this one, I will focus on dividends and buybacks, perhaps the most most misunderstood and misplayed element of corporate finance. To illustrate the heat that buybacks evoke, consider two stories in the last two weeks where...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #195
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
9 months ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
Farnam Street
A Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active...
over a year ago
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active participant, the experience can transform the way you think, and how you see the world. *** Here’s a situation familiar to many of us: We decide to take a vacation and go somewhere...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #172
Pilot's Founders vs. Berkshire, I Bonds, Ted Weschler interview transcript, Expanding circles of...
a year ago
Pilot's Founders vs. Berkshire, I Bonds, Ted Weschler interview transcript, Expanding circles of competence, Damodaran on Tesla, Thompson on AI, Charlie Munger, Chris Davis
Moneyness
Another Indian payments idea: a lightweight portable payments system for catastrophes
India is so far ahead of most of the world when it comes to payments technology that when a new...
a year ago
India is so far ahead of most of the world when it comes to payments technology that when a new Indian payments idea emerges, we should probably pay attention.
In its recent annual report, the Reserve Bank of India, the country's central bank, put forward the idea of a...
The Rational Walk
A Seamless Web of Deserved Trust
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
a year ago
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
The Rational Walk
Endurance
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived...
11 months ago
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived shipwreck, ice floes, and constant danger.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in...
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home...
6 days ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
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