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The Rational Walk
The Digest #179 Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI...
a year ago
64
a year ago
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI colonoscopies, Advice on tipping, Alcohol and cardiovascular risks, Nicomachean ethics
The Rational Walk
The Use of Letters As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It...
a year ago
16
a year ago
As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It makes no sense to refuse to learn vicariously.
Seeking Wisdom
A great investor is a great rejector I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for...
8 months ago
122
8 months ago
I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for example — I developed a stronger understanding and appreciation for it after reading the book Modeling Life. Similarly, the investing book What I Learned About Investing from Darwin...
Mazdak
Canada's Retail Pulse: Holiday Shopping Season Navigates Mixed Signals Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday...
a year ago
45
a year ago
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday season. While October saw a surprising 0.7% increase in retail sales, exceeding economist expectations, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend in the face of rising...
Moneyness
The lower limit to silver's usefulness in coinage A detectorist in Suffolk, England recently found a beautiful halfpenny minted some time between...
a year ago
18
a year ago
A detectorist in Suffolk, England recently found a beautiful halfpenny minted some time between 1625-1649, during the reign of King Charles I. This coin, captured in the video below, illustrates an important feature of coinage: the lower limit to silver's usefulness as a monetary...
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and...
10 months ago
92
10 months ago
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and therefore warrant only six years of imprisonment. Prosecutors argue that 40–50 years are justified.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #197 Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
9 months ago
112
9 months ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
The Rational Walk
The Limits of an Inner Scorecard Having an "inner scorecard" can be liberating and foster independent thinking, but ultimately human...
a year ago
23
a year ago
Having an "inner scorecard" can be liberating and foster independent thinking, but ultimately human beings must also subject themselves to the judgment of key people in their lives.
Mazdak
How to Start a Cleaning Company Without Cleaning The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion...
a year ago
19
a year ago
The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion by 2026. This growth is being driven by a number of factors, including the increasing number of dual-income households, the growing popularity of Airbnb, and the rising demand for...
Mazdak
Inflation is Cooling Off: A Glimpse of Economic Stability ☀️ 📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic....
a year ago
33
a year ago
📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic. The moderation of inflation is a significant development that alleviates pressure on consumers and provides central banks with some breathing room. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's...
Citation Needed
Caroline Ellison: A woman with agency or a helpless pawn? Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX...
3 months ago
Mazdak
Trudeau's resignation, Dana White joining Meta's board, YouTube taking on TikTok, SuperIntelligence... After nearly a decade in leadership, Justin Trudeau announced his decision to step down as Prime...
2 weeks ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #209 Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
5 months ago
68
5 months ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
Mazdak
The Latest in Smartglasses Tech From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of...
2 months ago
34
2 months ago
From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of smartglasses is heating up!
Citation Needed
25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried "The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious...
9 months ago
84
9 months ago
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious crime."
Mazdak
The Growth Rocket Fuel of Low Gross Margin Businesses When most people think of successful businesses, they think of businesses with high gross margins....
a year ago
21
a year ago
When most people think of successful businesses, they think of businesses with high gross margins. After all, a high gross margin means that a business is making a lot of money on each sale. However, there are a number of successful businesses that have low gross margins. These...
Mazdak
How Long (and Why) You Must Keep Every Business Record 🇨🇦 Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable...
12 months ago
48
12 months ago
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable records. This isn't just about staying organized; it's about complying with the law, managing your finances, and protecting yourself from audits. But with so many rules and regulations,...
Seeking Wisdom
From Linear to Logistic – Sigmoid Curve and Log Loss Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my...
a year ago
67
a year ago
Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Let’s train a model to predict heart disease using sleep and exercise data....
Bits about Money
A review of Number Go Up, on crypto shenanigans A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether...
a year ago
Musings on Markets
Earnings and Cash Flows: A Primer on Free Cash Flow It is never pleasant to be in the midst of a market correction, but a market correction does operate...
over a year ago
18
over a year ago
It is never pleasant to be in the midst of a market correction, but a market correction does operate as a cleanser for excesses that enter into even the most disciplined investors' playbooks in the good times. This correction has been no exception, as the threat of losing...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #215 Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking...
4 months ago
59
4 months ago
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking Kamala Harris, Weaponizing political anger, Nick Sleep's letters, Howard Marks on risk
Commoncog
One Definition of Wisdom Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
11 months ago
Commoncog
Making Sense of Deming A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of...
10 months ago
90
10 months ago
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of the most powerful things you'll find on the Operations side of the business expertise triad. Read this, so you don't have to read multiple books to apply his ideas.
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
8 months ago
Bits about Money
Improving how credit cards work under the covers Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can...
a year ago
17
a year ago
Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can be fixed. Stripe provides examples.
The Rational Walk
In the Zone Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to...
8 months ago
52
8 months ago
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to provide valuable insights about our health.
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
11 months ago
The Diff
Social Media as a Test of Human-in-the-Loop Generative AI Plus! Holdcos; Cash and Control; War Economies; In-Kind Dividends; Currency
a month ago
Commoncog
How to Use Power How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect...
a month ago
48
a month ago
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect yourself against them? Part two of three in a series on power in business.
The Diff
Infrastructure on top of Infrastructure Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous...
a month ago
43
a month ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous Consumption Baskets as Subtle Union-Busting; Second-Order Effects
The Rational Walk
The Digest #195 BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
10 months ago
78
10 months ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2023: Inflation and Interest Rates If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more...
a year ago
18
a year ago
If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. The US treasury market, considered by some still as a safe haven, was anything but safe or a haven, especially at the long maturities, as long...
Musings on Markets
Disagreements and First Principles: The Pushback on my Tesla Valuation I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago, and as has always been the...
a year ago
14
a year ago
I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago, and as has always been the case when I value this company, I have heard from both sides of the Tesla divide. Some of you believe that I am being far too generous in my forecasts of revenues and profitability...
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged in December The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46,...
a month ago
25
a month ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46, unchanged from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder sentiment held steady to end the year as high home...
Commoncog
The Secret at the Heart of Continuous Improvement Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart...
9 months ago
92
9 months ago
Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart that doesn't seem to get talked about.
Mazdak
A Review and Analysis of "The Laws of Human Nature" by Robert Greene Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different...
11 months ago
72
11 months ago
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different approach in his 2018 book, "The Laws of Human Nature." Instead of focusing on acquiring power over others, he dives deep into the intricate workings of human psychology, unveiling...
Mazdak
OpenAI’s Ph.D.-Level Super Agents The AI landscape is evolving at breakneck speed, and OpenAI is leading the charge.
3 days ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #218 Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles,...
3 months ago
53
3 months ago
Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles, Doing what you love, Human aging, Ray Ozzie on intelligent machines, Aesop's Fables
Commoncog
Colin Bryar on the practice of Amazon's Weekly Business Review Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of...
a year ago
80
a year ago
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of Amazon's secret operational weapons: the Weekly Business Review.
Mazdak
Netflix Discontinues Basic Plan in Canada Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it...
a year ago
19
a year ago
Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it plans to discontinue the plan altogether, but it is no longer available to new or rejoining members. The Basic plan was the most affordable option for Netflix subscribers in Canada,...
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and...
3 weeks ago
21
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November Happy New Year! Best wishes for 2025, Bill Here are the multi-family 60+ day delinquency rate since 2006. There is much more...
Seeking Wisdom
Make Every Day Count It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big...
a year ago
106
a year ago
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big project at work on time. I’d made the journey from the office to my home so many times, my car almost seemed to know the way by itself. My hands were on the wheel, but…
Commoncog
Putting Amazon’s PR/FAQ to Practice What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company...
over a year ago
66
over a year ago
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company context, and what was surprising and difficult about it.
Bits about Money
The infrastructure behind ATMs ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
over a year ago
Musings on Markets
Data Update 6 for 2023: A Wake up call for the Indebted? We have an uneasy relationship with debt, both in our personal and business lives. While it is a...
a year ago
15
a year ago
We have an uneasy relationship with debt, both in our personal and business lives. While it is a financial decision, it is one that is freighted with moral overtones, since almost every religion inveighs against debt's sins, labeling those who lend as sinners and those who borrow...
Commoncog
Marvel Studios’s Origin Story The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of...
a year ago
54
a year ago
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of superb capital expertise in action.
Commoncog
The Skill of Capital What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk...
a year ago
116
a year ago
What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk through three stories, and then talk about the shape of the skill in practice.
Mazdak
How to Build Wealth: 5 Key Principles Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is...
a year ago
18
a year ago
Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is possible for anyone who is willing to put in the work. Here are 5 key principles to help you build wealth: Live below your means. This is the single most important thing you can do to...
Mazdak
AI Energy Fears: Overblown or the Next Crisis? Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
2 months ago
Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
a year ago
71
a year ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
Mazdak
Regulating Crypto Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end...
2 months ago
37
2 months ago
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end for crypto, or a necessary step towards mainstream adoption?
Mazdak
Minimize Taxes, Maximize Inheritance: A Canadian Guide to Estate Planning with Real Estate For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key...
11 months ago
42
11 months ago
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key concerns. In this context, real estate, often the largest asset, presents unique challenges and opportunities. While strategies like adding children to titles were once popular,...
Citation Needed
Issue 44 – Four The Justice Department's interest in Binance isn't just "FUD" anymore.
a year ago
The Diff
Time Arbitrage and SaaS Pricing Power Plus! Search UX; Mining Crypto; Moderation; News is a Distribution Business; AI as UI
2 weeks ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #219 Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam...
3 months ago
53
3 months ago
Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam Zell, UK Bargains, Gregorys Coffee, Free Speech Under Assault, Dopamine and Addiction
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.9% in December Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP)...
5 days ago
8
5 days ago
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.9 percent in December after moving up 0.2 percent in November. In December, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth...
Moneyness
It's time to trash the "store of value" function of money When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that...
a month ago
62
a month ago
When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that money has three functions: medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value. Maybe it’s time for educators to throw out this triumvirate. It’s not very accurate.  We need a...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025 The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, January 20th ----- All US...
4 days ago
11
4 days ago
The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, January 20th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day "Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter." Martin Luther King Jr. ----- Tuesday,...
Musings on Markets
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors! In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
2 months ago
42
2 months ago
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 7.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 January The U.S. hotel industry reported negative...
3 days ago
10
3 days ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 January The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 11 January. ... 5-11 January 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 49.2%...
Musings on Markets
In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments! In every introductory finance class, you begin with the notion of a risk-free investment, and the...
a year ago
22
a year ago
In every introductory finance class, you begin with the notion of a risk-free investment, and the rate on that investment becomes the base on which you build, to get to expected returns on risky assets and investments. In fact, the standard practice that most analysts and...
Mazdak
Anthropic's AI Breakthrough & Boeing's Q3 Disaster Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases...
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases mind-blowing new capabilities.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #174 Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions,...
a year ago
38
a year ago
Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions, The AI Gold Rush, 100th anniversary of Hitler's beer hall putsch, The Federalist Papers
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a week ago
16
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
balajis.com
The Network State Conference Come to Amsterdam on October 30 to build the parallel establishment.
a year ago
Commoncog
The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same...
a year ago
75
a year ago
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same time? Deming — who came up with these data techniques — believe that it is possible. I'm not so sure.
Moneyness
There are now two types of PayPal dollars, and one is better than the other PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of...
a year ago
19
a year ago
PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of opening a traditional PayPal account to maintain a balance of dollars, PayPal customers can now hold something new called PayPal USD, a crypto version of a dollar. Whereas PayPal USD...
Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
a year ago
66
a year ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15...
a month ago
17
a month ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but close to housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate). Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted...
The Rational Walk
The Dividend Signal Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or...
9 months ago
101
9 months ago
Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or negative development for shareholders?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #213 Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects,...
4 months ago
59
4 months ago
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects, Personal Bots, Bitcoin, AI vs. Reality, "Useless" Knowledge, Jay Bowen, Rudy Havenstein
The Rational Walk
The Digest #165 Buffett on Inflation, Dollar General, Due Diligence, Personal Libraries, The role of AI in drug...
a year ago
38
a year ago
Buffett on Inflation, Dollar General, Due Diligence, Personal Libraries, The role of AI in drug discovery, Small-cap opportunities, and interviews of Peter Brown, Bill Gross, Chris Bloomstran.
Citation Needed
No, Trump didn’t make $50 billion from his memecoin Journalists’ flawed math and ignorance of crypto markets turn tokens into fake fortunes
2 days ago
FIRE v London
July ’23: Markets up, Coutts down It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye...
a year ago
53
a year ago
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye scoff, isn’t that much – London is a fairly dry city – drier than Rome and much drier than Sydney). It has been long trousers weather, for the first time in several years. But at...
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 16th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 26.6% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week.  Inventory is now...
a month ago
35
a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week.  Inventory is now 7.7% below the peak for the year (8 weeks ago). Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and...
3 months ago
38
3 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and now is the sole owner of the energy company.
Moneyness
How PayPal can use stablecoins to avoid AML requirements and make big profits There's a new financial loophole in town: stablecoins. Stablecoins are dollar, yen, or pound-based...
10 months ago
49
10 months ago
There's a new financial loophole in town: stablecoins. Stablecoins are dollar, yen, or pound-based payments platforms that are built using crypto database technology. Financial institutions are always looking for loopholes to game the system. Typically this has meant avoiding...
FIRE v London
May ’23: Magic megatech May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
a year ago
54
a year ago
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
Mazdak
OpenAI's Meltdown: A Fight for the Future of AI The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching...
a year ago
36
a year ago
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching implications for the future of artificial intelligence (AI). OpenAI, known for its groundbreaking ChatGPT technology, is considered a frontrunner in the AI race, and its fate could...
balajis.com
The Fiat Crisis This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
a year ago
Bits about Money
Credit card debt collection Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being...
a year ago
16
a year ago
Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being sordid, for complex structural and microeconomic reasons.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2023: The Earnings Test As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to...
a year ago
17
a year ago
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside. During the course of the year, investors also...
Citation Needed
Issue 66 – Pretensions to relevance FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky...
4 months ago
69
4 months ago
FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky goes to trial, and some more ill-received blockchain games suggest “GameFi” has an uncertain future.
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 13th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.7% Week-over-week, Up 23.6% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory will...
a week ago
12
a week ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.   The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click...
The Rational Walk
Inflation Expectations There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers...
10 months ago
67
10 months ago
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers should pay close attention to Warren Buffett's statements and actions.
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 1 This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
93
a year ago
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. I love playing and watching cricket. The dominance India showed in the recently concluded World Cup is astounding. I have never seen anything like it in...
The Diff
In Credit Underwriting, Better is Worse Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
2 weeks ago
Mazdak
The Rollercoaster Ride of Long-Term Rates: What it Means for You and the Economy Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that...
a year ago
31
a year ago
Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that had everyone from policymakers to financial analysts glued to their screens? Well, guess what? It's mostly reversed! What does this mean? In a nutshell, it means a sigh of relief...
Mazdak
5 Must-Read Finance Books for Building Wealth
a year ago
Mazdak
The Future of Healthcare: Your AI Health Pod is Here! 🩺 Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and...
a year ago
33
a year ago
Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and hello to the CarePod, your self-contained doctor's office powered by artificial intelligence. Imagine: Stepping into a futuristic pod at your local mall, gym, or even office...
Citation Needed
Not just one bad apple: FTX's practices were business as usual in crypto Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret...
3 weeks ago
33
3 weeks ago
Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret acquisitions of “grey area” businesses, buying influence, and creative accounting.
Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
a year ago
Commoncog
Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a...
a year ago
80
a year ago
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a deliberate practice training program isn't as difficult as you might think.
Calculated Risk
January 3rd COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 weeks ago
18
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2023: Setting the table! In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each...
over a year ago
19
over a year ago
In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the first of a series of posts that I make at the start of each year, where I look at data, both macro and company-level. In this post, I...
Mazdak
DOJ Breaks Up Google, Elden Ring Sold, and Windows Goes Meta The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will...
2 months ago
32
2 months ago
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will the internet ever be the same?
Calculated Risk
1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024...
2 days ago
8
2 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006 A brief excerpt: Although total housing starts decreased 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023, completions increased sharply...
Citation Needed
Issue 70 – The Cryptocurrency States of America Crypto’s efforts to buy the 2024 elections paid off, and we’re in for a bumpy ride.
2 months ago
Mazdak
Loonie on the Brink: Can Canada Escape US Monetary Policy? The Canadian and American economies are deeply intertwined.
2 months ago
Citation Needed
I am my own legal department: the promise and peril of “just go independent” Independent publishing is one important facet of the media ecosystem, and while I love it, I know it...
2 months ago
Mazdak
TikTok, Netflix, and the Future of Media: Key Insights from 2024's Biggest Winners In 2024, the global media landscape experienced monumental shifts, with platforms like TikTok and...
yesterday
6
yesterday
In 2024, the global media landscape experienced monumental shifts, with platforms like TikTok and Netflix setting unprecedented benchmarks in user engagement, ad revenue, and growth.
Farnam Street
Reciprocity: Getting What You Give This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics,...
over a year ago
62
over a year ago
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics, Chemistry and Biology Reciprocity teaches us why win-win relationships are the way to go, why waiters leave candies with the bill, why it’s a good idea to use the least force possible...
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
9 months ago
97
9 months ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
Bits about Money
Deposit franchises as natural hedges Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest...
a year ago
15
a year ago
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest rates. How did we get here?
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024 The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd...
a month ago
24
a month ago
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. ----- Monday, December 16th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence, Gemini 2.0, Amazon Autos and more Apple just redefined how we use Siri.
a month ago
The Diff
Economic Lessons from the Last Few Singularities Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
a month ago
FIRE v London
Becoming an ISA $millionaire This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until...
a year ago
60
a year ago
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until using my full annual ISA allowance(s), which took me much longer than usual last year. This year I actually completed my ISA topups in April, within a few weeks of the start of the...
Mazdak
The Psychology of Investing: 5 Critical Traps That Can Destroy Your Wealth The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising portfolios into cautionary tales.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 3 During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies...
a year ago
62
a year ago
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies during the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s is a perfect case study.
Calculated Risk
Census: The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024 From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades...
a month ago
17
a month ago
From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, according to the new Vintage 2024 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. As the nation’s...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 201,000 This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported: emphasis added The...
a week ago
19
a week ago
This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The...
Commoncog
Business Reality Without Frameworks A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s...
3 months ago
55
3 months ago
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s come before.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December,...
5 days ago
10
5 days ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December, unchanged from November’s preliminary pace and up 7.0% from last December’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a somewhat higher YOY % gain, reflecting this...
Mazdak
A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the...
a year ago
75
a year ago
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the economy that remains ill: the office sector of the U.S. commercial real-estate market. ** What's the Problem?** Hybrid/remote work: What began as a two-week work-from-home...
The Diff
Moderation, Inside and Out Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More...
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22
a week ago
Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More Round-Trips
The Rational Walk
The Odyssey Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
8 months ago
109
8 months ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
Calculated Risk
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024 At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up...
a month ago
24
a month ago
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).  I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a...
Citation Needed
We need to talk about digital ownership "Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually...
11 months ago
Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
7 months ago
96
7 months ago
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
Citation Needed
When did cryptocurrency policy become a voter issue? I don’t believe that it has.
5 months ago
Mazdak
AI.com to Chat.com: OpenAI's Domain Domination From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've dropped a huge amount of cash – likely over $15.5 million – to snag the premium domain Chat.com.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 21 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
3 weeks ago
23
3 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 21 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 21 December. ... 15-21 December 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): Occupancy:...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
a month ago
Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
over a year ago
Moneyness
Where now FedNow? Earlier this month the Federal Reserve introduced its new instant retail payments system, FedNow....
a year ago
17
a year ago
Earlier this month the Federal Reserve introduced its new instant retail payments system, FedNow. This is actually the U.S.'s second real-time retail settlement system. The first, The Clearing House's Real Time Payments Network, or RTP, opened for business back in 2017. As FedNow...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #158 Claude Shannon's mighty mouse, Ben Graham's father, Doomberg quits Twitter, FASB segment disclosure...
a year ago
21
a year ago
Claude Shannon's mighty mouse, Ben Graham's father, Doomberg quits Twitter, FASB segment disclosure rules, Podcasts on old annual reports, Henry Ford's road trips, Jony Ive, Sal Kahn
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 Results — Manufacturing, Service, and Retailing A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on...
a year ago
37
a year ago
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on results in Q3 2023 as well as a longer term view.
Calculated Risk
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to All! High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!) beach in Newport. Best Wishes to All!
4 weeks ago
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 1 This article presents lessons learned regarding investing in bonds based on Warren Buffett's...
a year ago
16
a year ago
This article presents lessons learned regarding investing in bonds based on Warren Buffett's commentary in his final partnership letters written in 1969 and 1970.
Mazdak
Twitter vs. Instagram Threads: The Battle for the Short-Form Social Media Crown Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both...
a year ago
19
a year ago
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both offer users a way to share short-form content, but they have different approaches to how that content is displayed and consumed. Twitter is a more public platform, where anyone can...
Mazdak
Nearly All US Job Growth in November Came From Just 3 Sectors! Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's...
a year ago
28
a year ago
Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's even more interesting is that nearly all of this job growth came from just three sectors! So, which sectors are we talking about? Healthcare: Leading the pack with a steady demand...
Seeking Wisdom
Buffett’s Bathtub Memory I love reading physical books. But there’s one problem with physical books. My shelf space is...
over a year ago
14
over a year ago
I love reading physical books. But there’s one problem with physical books. My shelf space is limited. To overcome the shelf space limitation, I developed a simple fitness function for my books. Books that I won’t reread will be donated to the library. Don’t get me wrong. They...
balajis.com
Bond Villain When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
3 weeks ago
18
3 weeks ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average...
3 weeks ago
21
3 weeks ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.6% Annual Gain in October 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Increased Slightly in Q3 2024 The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024: The Industry’s Net Income Decreased...
a month ago
15
a month ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024: The Industry’s Net Income Decreased From the Prior Quarter, Driven by One-Time Items Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios Persists the industry reported the largest...
Calculated Risk
Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025? Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase...
4 weeks ago
19
4 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #206 The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of...
6 months ago
97
6 months ago
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of Silicon Valley, Self-esteem and outer scorecards, MMT's founder is worried about deficits
Mazdak
RRSP Guide for New Immigrants to Canada: Everything You Need to Know As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the...
2 months ago
24
2 months ago
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP).
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?) Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
a month ago
58
a month ago
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
4 months ago
67
4 months ago
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
Bits about Money
Credit cards as a legacy system Credit cards have been in use for almost 75 years. Some long-ago decisions still cause consequences...
over a year ago
15
over a year ago
Credit cards have been in use for almost 75 years. Some long-ago decisions still cause consequences in the present day. But change is possible.
Calculated Risk
December 13th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #161 Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy...
a year ago
23
a year ago
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy band-aid; Plus insights from Todd Combs, Michael Burry, Joel Tillinghast, and Lee Ainslie.
Citation Needed
Issue 64 – Pointing its arsenal at our friends As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like...
5 months ago
73
5 months ago
As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like “Crypto4Harris”, others insist it is Harris who must “bend the knee”.
balajis.com
Going Meta Meta may be Android to Apple's Apple.
a year ago
Commoncog
An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two...
a year ago
69
a year ago
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two months in: what I learnt, what was hard, and what deliberate practice actually feels like.
Mazdak
Meta's Oakley Smart Glasses, TikTok's Revenue Nearly Doubled YouTube's Last Year, Hidden Hashtags on... “What if Elon Musk or Larry Ellison bought TikTok?”
15 hours ago
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance) Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
6 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #225 A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role...
2 months ago
35
2 months ago
A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role in Trump's Victory, Taxes in Retirement, James J. Hill, IKEA, F. A. Hayek, Shakespeare
The Rational Walk
Dollar General: Value or Value Trap? I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some...
a year ago
96
a year ago
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some initial thoughts about the company as well as the overall retail landscape.
Musings on Markets
The School Bell Rings: Time for Class! Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting...
a year ago
40
a year ago
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting in a couple of weeks, I would like to invite you, if you are interested, to come along for the ride. I know! I know! Most of you are not enrolled at NYU, paying nosebleed prices,...
Commoncog
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota on Human-AI Symbiosis Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented...
a week ago
19
a week ago
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented approach to AI in real world domains.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: PPI From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The...
a week ago
14
a week ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The more important consideration is the new round of potential volatility on the horizon. Whereas it was the jobs report last week, this week's critical data will be Wednesday's Consumer...
Mazdak
Tired of Chasing Leads? Elevate Your Value Proposition Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
2 months ago
Citation Needed
Issue 68 – Opportunity agenda Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as...
3 months ago
54
3 months ago
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as another enters, and Stand With Crypto bets on the favorites.
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
2 weeks ago
21
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.56% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
Moneyness
Is it legal to mix cash in a jar? Chris Blec asks the following question: Source: Twitter Chris's premise is that it is "not...
a year ago
36
a year ago
Chris Blec asks the following question: Source: Twitter Chris's premise is that it is "not illegal" for him to get together with a bunch of strangers to mix cash. But that's not quite right. It can be legal. It can also be illegal. To determine which it is, we need to...
The Rational Walk
Apple’s Dystopian iPad Video When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision...
8 months ago
114
8 months ago
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision crushing symbols of art and culture.
Musings on Markets
For the fun of it: An Open House for my Spring 2025 Classes I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me...
a month ago
48
a month ago
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me in the classes that I teach at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Since I teach these classes only in the spring, and the first sessions for each of the classes...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Kotkin, Luttwak, Poker, DRW, PCs, Statistics, AI, Hamilton
a month ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #160 Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan,...
a year ago
21
a year ago
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan, Flawed memories, Podcast interviews with Rudy Havenstein, Doomberg, Paul Graham, and Guy Spier.
The Rational Walk
A Mind at Play Claude Shannon is most famous for his groundbreaking work related to information theory, one of many...
a year ago
21
a year ago
Claude Shannon is most famous for his groundbreaking work related to information theory, one of many subjects discussed in his fascinating biography.
Farnam Street
Why Write Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
a year ago
73
a year ago
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
The Diff
Credentialism and the Money Illusion Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and...
2 weeks ago
23
2 weeks ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and Downside of Ads; Backcasting Returns
The Diff
Two Models of Forward-Deployed Engineers Plus! Corporate VC; The New AI Model; The New AI Model, Continued; The Long But Volatile March;...
6 days ago
The Rational Walk
Free Articles! All articles older than six months are now free to read.
a year ago
Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024 A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Homebuider Survey Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
6 days ago
11
6 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 215 thousand from 201 thousand last week. Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released.  The...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.5% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
a month ago
17
a month ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to...
Citation Needed
Polling: Are Democratic voters really “increasingly gravitating towards crypto”? Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How...
4 months ago
61
4 months ago
Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How does it stack up to other industry polls, which are often heavily manipulated to paint a deceptively rosy picture?
Mazdak
Inflation finally chills out! Americans rejoice & recession whispers fade as prices dip and spending... The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first...
a year ago
33
a year ago
The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first decline since way back in 2020! This ain't no mirage, folks - inflation is cooling down, and the Fed's fight against skyrocketing prices is showing real results!
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
10 months ago
65
10 months ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
Moneyness
Are central banks too reliant on SWIFT for domestic payments? Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally...
a year ago
76
a year ago
Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally important to our lives, but we never see them in action. All of a nations' electronic payments are ultimately completed, or settled, on these systems. If they stop working, our...
Mazdak
Unplugging Australia: Kids vs. Social Media Australia is going offline!
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
3 weeks ago
19
3 weeks ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
3 months ago
Commoncog
Dell's Capital Expertise We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at...
a year ago
91
a year ago
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at capital allows you to make moves that aren't available to a novice business operator.
Citation Needed
Businessweek: Crypto Got What It Wanted in November’s Election. Now What? The industry is now in a position to weaken financial rules that might protect consumers from the...
a month ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
4 days ago
8
4 days ago
Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
Mazdak
Apple & Google Face Mounting Threats to $500 Billion Market The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is...
a year ago
47
a year ago
The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is facing a growing number of threats. A recent court ruling against Google and new regulations in Europe and Asia could force the two tech giants to open up their app stores to more...
Mazdak
RRSP vs TFSA: Making the Right Choice for Your Financial Future Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful...
2 months ago
30
2 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful investment vehicles available to Canadians.
The Rational Walk
Measuring Competence Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as...
3 months ago
38
3 months ago
Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as clear when it comes to investing.
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
28
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales on Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million...
FIRE v London
Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an...
11 months ago
96
11 months ago
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an impulse while travelling back from the Coastal Folly. My main frame of reference to the cathedral being those notorious Russian nerve agent assassins citing it as their reason for...
Mazdak
OpenAI Ventures into Robotics, Grok App Launch, Trump Convicted, and US Jobs Report Highlights Big robotics news from OpenAI 🤖
a week ago
balajis.com
Prompts are Tiny Programs And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
12 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #204 Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing...
7 months ago
76
7 months ago
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing down time, Return of meme stocks, The U.S. Constitution, Gouverneur Morris, Cleopatra
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence: Catching Up or Falling Behind? Apple just launched its new AI features with much fanfare, but are they truly intelligent or just a...
2 months ago
37
2 months ago
Apple just launched its new AI features with much fanfare, but are they truly intelligent or just a bunch of glowing gradients and sparkle icons?
Commoncog
Businesses as Ecosystem Organisms What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd...
4 months ago
73
4 months ago
What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd example of HEICO being the barnacle to TransDigm’s whale.
Mazdak
Amazon Glasses: Seeing the Future of Delivery Amazon is developing smart glasses for their delivery drivers to navigate routes, locate packages,...
2 months ago
30
2 months ago
Amazon is developing smart glasses for their delivery drivers to navigate routes, locate packages, and even take photos of deliveries as proof for customers.
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
a year ago
67
a year ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
Mazdak
The Weight-Loss Gold Rush A Race to Develop Blockbuster Obesity Drugs
a year ago
Mazdak
Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #168 Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's...
a year ago
21
a year ago
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's IPO, Costco's clothing, Todd Combs interview, Equifax, and more ...
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a week ago
12
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts...
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
9 months ago
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
9 months ago
115
9 months ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
The Rational Walk
New Articles Moving to Newsletter Effective today, I will no longer post new articles to this website, rationalwalk.com. All new...
a year ago
48
a year ago
Effective today, I will no longer post new articles to this website, rationalwalk.com. All new articles will be posted on my Substack at newsletter.rationalwalk.com.
Commoncog
Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do...
12 months ago
113
12 months ago
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do it. This is everything you need to know to actually become data driven, from scratch, using the same first principles that Amazon, Koch, and Toyota used back in their day.
Moneyness
There won't be a Blackrock bitcoin ETF, at least not until Binance bites the dust Back in 2018 I wrote about the controversy over the constant stream of bitcoin ETF denials emanating...
a year ago
18
a year ago
Back in 2018 I wrote about the controversy over the constant stream of bitcoin ETF denials emanating from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). And my conclusion then was: "further rejections likely." My conclusion in 2023 is the same. Even with Wall Street-giant...
Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 days ago
12
4 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Friday: No major economic releases scheduled Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • No...
a month ago
20
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • No major economic releases scheduled.
balajis.com
The Balaji Newsletter A single place for all updates at balajis.com
a year ago
Moneyness
Do bitcoin ETFs conflict with bitcoin's original ethos? Some folks are suggesting that a bitcoin ETF is absurd because it doesn't fit with Bitcoin's...
12 months ago
67
12 months ago
Some folks are suggesting that a bitcoin ETF is absurd because it doesn't fit with Bitcoin's original ethos. On the contrary, I think it's a nice snug fit. It would be a misunderstanding of bitcoin's history to assume that it was the idealism of cypherpunk-ism that gave birth to...
The Rational Walk
Donald Trump’s Resounding Victory Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable...
2 months ago
40
2 months ago
Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable majority in the electoral college but a likely majority in the national popular vote as well.
Mazdak
Protect Your iPhone: Apple Introduces Stolen Device Protection Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device...
a year ago
35
a year ago
Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device Protection, currently available to beta testers. This feature adds an extra layer of protection to your personal information and financial data, making it more difficult for thieves to...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #217 Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The...
3 months ago
48
3 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The Fed's Inflationary Bias, Jimmy Carter at 100, Sam Altman, Bruno Leoni, Thermopylae
Mazdak
Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and...
a year ago
71
a year ago
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and battling for the last box of Oreos. The retail giant is about to revolutionize your shopping experience with a generative AI makeover. Imagine this: You're planning a Super Bowl bash,...
The Rational Walk
Thoughts on Israel’s 9/11 On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered a terrorist attack that took an estimated 1,200 lives, the vast...
a year ago
20
a year ago
On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered a terrorist attack that took an estimated 1,200 lives, the vast majority of whom were civilians.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "Home ATM" Mostly Closed At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1:...
a month ago
15
a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 2nd...
Commoncog
Strong at Capital, Bad at Everything Else Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but...
a year ago
50
a year ago
Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but weak in just about everything else.
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier...
a week ago
18
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of...
9 months ago
91
9 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of Anne Frank, Endurance, Crime and Punishment, and the Iliad.
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
over a year ago
60
over a year ago
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
yesterday
6
yesterday
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release December Existing Home sales on Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million in...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024 Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
a month ago
18
a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024 Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 5.8, down from 31.2. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value). WTI futures at $71.12 per...
Mazdak
Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful...
a year ago
77
a year ago
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful player in the industry. This deal puts an end to a years-long investigation into Binance. The deal: CZ agreed to pay $50 million in fines and is prohibited from operating or managing...
Citation Needed
Issue 69 – Nice Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also,...
2 months ago
48
2 months ago
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also, election spending hits a fever pitch, with several new crypto PACs coming out of the woodwork.
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 10% in December From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December The Dodge Momentum Index...
a week ago
13
a week ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 10.2% in December to 212.0 (2000=100) from the revised November reading of 192.3. Over the month, commercial planning increased 14.2%...
Mazdak
Canadian Real Estate Market Predictions for 2024 As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for...
a year ago
32
a year ago
As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for investors. While the explosive growth of recent years is likely to abate, a multitude of factors will continue to shape the market's trajectory. Understanding these factors is crucial for...
Mazdak
Google: Monopolized? Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little...
a month ago
35
a month ago
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little competition.
Mazdak
Compound Interest: A Comprehensive Guide Compound interest is often called the "eighth wonder of the world" and for good reason.
2 months ago
balajis.com
The Network State Book A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
13
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities! It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget...
over a year ago
24
over a year ago
It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even...
Mazdak
Is Tesla's Full Self-Driving REALLY Safer Than Humans? Tesla's latest vehicle safety report claims that Autopilot has a crash rate of one accident per 7...
2 months ago
24
2 months ago
Tesla's latest vehicle safety report claims that Autopilot has a crash rate of one accident per 7 million miles, significantly lower than the U.S.
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023! I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
11 months ago
98
11 months ago
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
Moneyness
It's time to impose Iran-calibre sanctions on Russia Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long...
a year ago
87
a year ago
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long list of sanctions that the G7 coalition has placed on Russia in response to its attack on Ukraine are surprisingly light compared to the fewer but far more-draconian sanctions...
Musings on Markets
Tesla in 2023: A Return to Reality, The Start of the End or Time to Buy? I am not much of a car person and view cars primarily as a mode of transportation. I drive a 2010...
a year ago
17
a year ago
I am not much of a car person and view cars primarily as a mode of transportation. I drive a 2010 Honda Civic, a perfectly serviceable vehicle that is never going to get oohs and ahas from onlookers, but I feel no urge to value Honda. I don't own a Tesla, and have only driven...
Moneyness
What does the recent ruling on the Emergencies Act mean for your banking rights? A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy...
11 months ago
89
11 months ago
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy protest in 2022 contravened the protestor's rights. In this post I want to provide my reading of this particular ruling and what is at stake for Canadians and their bank...
The Rational Walk
Real Estate Adventures Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with...
10 months ago
39
10 months ago
Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with realtors, one positive and one negative.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #172 Pilot's Founders vs. Berkshire, I Bonds, Ted Weschler interview transcript, Expanding circles of...
a year ago
21
a year ago
Pilot's Founders vs. Berkshire, I Bonds, Ted Weschler interview transcript, Expanding circles of competence, Damodaran on Tesla, Thompson on AI, Charlie Munger, Chris Davis
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 23rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.2% Week-over-week, Up 26.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week.  Inventory is now...
a month ago
21
a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week.  Inventory is now 9.7% below the peak for the year (9 weeks ago). Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in January or February. The first graph...
FIRE v London
Feb ’23: taking profits February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling...
a year ago
39
a year ago
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling up again, post covid, though Mondays and Fridays remain subdued to put it mildly. Market movements in February In the markets, February started strongly, but then something...
Moneyness
Stablecoins are non-fungible, bank deposits are fungible On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive....
a week ago
24
a week ago
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive. Tether, which has four times more wallets than all other stablecoins, is locked-in as the stablecoin lingua franca, just like English has been locked-in as the global language of...
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in December; Up 0.4% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in December Wholesale...
2 weeks ago
16
2 weeks ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in December Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in December compared to November. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 204.8, an increase...
The Rational Walk
Hesiod’s Works and Days One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it...
8 months ago
90
8 months ago
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it was 2,700 years ago.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #178 Berkshire countersues Pilot's founders, Meta targeting teens, Title Insurance, Moats & capital...
a year ago
40
a year ago
Berkshire countersues Pilot's founders, Meta targeting teens, Title Insurance, Moats & capital allocation, CAVA's origin, VISA's history, Business lessons from Tom Murphy
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
a year ago
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: A July 2023 Update! I have looked at country risk, in all its dimensions, towards the middle of each year, for the last...
a year ago
19
a year ago
I have looked at country risk, in all its dimensions, towards the middle of each year, for the last decade, for many reasons. One is curiosity, as political and economic crises roll through regions of the world, roiling long-held beliefs about safe and risky countries. The other...
balajis.com
The Network State Book A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
18
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
10 months ago
66
10 months ago
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
Bits about Money
BAM is now reader-supported Bits about Money now offers paid memberships. (Plus, a bonus essay on newsletter financial...
over a year ago
16
over a year ago
Bits about Money now offers paid memberships. (Plus, a bonus essay on newsletter financial infrastructure.)
The Rational Walk
The Other Side of the Trade Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other...
7 months ago
79
7 months ago
Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other stocks to temporarily crash on June 3, 2024.
Moneyness
Why is Binance leaving Canada? Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, announced last month that it would be exiting Canada....
a year ago
19
a year ago
Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, announced last month that it would be exiting Canada. At the time, it blamed "new guidance" issued by Canada's securities regulators. We now have an even more detailed explanation from Binance about the nature of this "new guidance."...
Commoncog
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
5 months ago
Mazdak
The 7 Steps to Becoming a Top Investor Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going...
a year ago
18
a year ago
Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going to share with you the seven steps that I believe are essential for becoming a top investor. Step 1: Develop a Clear Investment Philosophy The first step to becoming a great...
The Rational Walk
The Magic of Compounding The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my...
6 months ago
90
6 months ago
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my current net worth.
Mazdak
The Future of TikTok in the U.S.: What Happens on January 19? The fate of TikTok in the United States hangs in the balance as we approach January 19.
5 days ago
Moneyness
How did Zcash avoid getting OFAC'ed? The 2022 sanctioning of privacy tool Tornado Cash by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (or OFAC,...
a year ago
17
a year ago
The 2022 sanctioning of privacy tool Tornado Cash by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (or OFAC, the U.S.'s sanctioning authority) has inspired a new privacy idea: Privacy Pools.  An olive branch to OFAC, Privacy Pools will let users choose who they associate with, the idea...
The Diff
That Top-of-Cycle Feeling Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
a month ago
Mazdak
What is QSBS? As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul...
a year ago
42
a year ago
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul into your company, and you want to see it thrive. But taxes can eat into your profits, leaving you feeling frustrated and discouraged. That's where QSBS (Qualified Small Business...
Musings on Markets
Putting the (Insta)cart before the (Grocery) horse: A COVID Favorite's Reality Check! After years of rumors of an imminent IPO, Instacart has finally filed for a public offering of it’s...
a year ago
33
a year ago
After years of rumors of an imminent IPO, Instacart has finally filed for a public offering of it’s shares, aspiring to raise about $600 million from markets, at a pricing of about $9-$10 billion for its equity. Coming in the week after ARM, an AI chip designer, also filed to go...
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried: guilty on all charges Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Buffett Resumes Occidental Purchases Berkshire spent $246.4 million to acquire 3.9 million OXY shares between October 23 and October 25.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #226 Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.3% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to...
a month ago
20
a month ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to 3.0% q/q saar. Additionally, our 4Q US GDP tracker was unchanged at 2.1% q/q saar. [Dec 13th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final...
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
a year ago
79
a year ago
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
The Rational Walk
The Iliad Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
9 months ago
72
9 months ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
4 weeks ago
15
4 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth From housing economist Tom Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Incorporate Revised Methodology for Estimating Net International Migration, Show...
Mazdak
Subscription Overload: The Rise of Recurring Revenue The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches...
a year ago
47
a year ago
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches onto the subscription business model. This is because businesses can make more money up-front and over time by selling subscriptions and building loyalty. They can also mine...
Calculated Risk
Friday: ISM Mfg, Vehicle Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates...
2 weeks ago
18
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday). ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.3, down from 48.4 in November. Light vehicle sales for...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Evolving Estate Plan Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new...
6 months ago
56
6 months ago
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new charitable trust run by his children.
FIRE v London
I’m 28, and can’t figure out how to start on FatFIRE – what would you do in my shoes? From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from...
7 months ago
89
7 months ago
From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from the London School of Economics in 2017 after which I went through the hardest few years of my life mentally and ended up unemployed or in dead-end low paid jobs. I currently work...
Moneyness
Circle says its USDC stablecoin was as diversified as possible. Is that accurate? There's a good article by Leo Schwartz on stablecoin issuer Circle, which provides some clarity into...
a year ago
23
a year ago
There's a good article by Leo Schwartz on stablecoin issuer Circle, which provides some clarity into last March's big depegging of the USDC stablecoin, and Circle's subsequent bailout by the government. I wrote about the whole thing here, but the short version is that a handful...
Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US) Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
a year ago
93
a year ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
Moneyness
Kraken v Kraken, or how to protect the public from crypto exchange failures It's been a full year since FTX International and FTX-US collapsed, and the shocking thing is –...
a year ago
77
a year ago
It's been a full year since FTX International and FTX-US collapsed, and the shocking thing is – there is still no regulated crypto venue in the U.S.! You'd think some lessons would have been learnt. To best protect the public from the Sam Bankman-Frieds of the world, what the...
Moneyness
The first round of U.S. secondary sanctions on Russia is working Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing...
11 months ago
97
11 months ago
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing payments for a narrow range of products that are on a so-called "green list," reports Ragip Soylu. This broad debanking of Russia by Turkey is part of the fallout from President...
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not? Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
over a year ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 5, 2024 The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday. ----- Monday, January 6th...
2 weeks ago
22
2 weeks ago
The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday. ----- Monday, January 6th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, January 7th ----- 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor...
Moneyness
Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new...
2 months ago
45
2 months ago
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new and very strange policy. All Finns were required  to take out a pair of scissors and snip their banknotes in half. This was known in Finland as setelinleikkaus, or banknote cutting....
Mazdak
Google's Ad Business Under Fire in Europe Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces...
a year ago
24
a year ago
Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe The European Commission has made a formal antitrust complaint against Google and its ad business. In a preliminary opinion, the regulator says Google has...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week...
3 weeks ago
20
3 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. In fact, on a few...
Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188 Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
11 months ago
71
11 months ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
balajis.com
Crypto Twitter Found SBF's Fraud The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
a year ago
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
11 months ago
90
11 months ago
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
Mazdak
Teens Obsessed with YouTube and TikTok: New Survey Reveals Usage Trends Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew...
a year ago
43
a year ago
Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew Research Center. This highlights the immense popularity of these video-streaming platforms among younger generations. Here are the key takeaways from the survey:
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q3 Flow of Funds Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
20
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for November from the BLS. The...
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 6th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory will...
2 weeks ago
23
2 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.   The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #223 Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected...
2 months ago
37
2 months ago
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, Market Prices as Political Predictors, The Three Indias, Semiconductor Progress
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
10 months ago
98
10 months ago
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
Mazdak
Whatever Happens to TikTok, Big Tech is Coming for Its Millions of Creators TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing...
5 days ago
14
5 days ago
TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing an uncertain future in the United States.
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Moneyness
After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the...
a month ago
42
a month ago
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the topic starting with my first post in October 2012. Since then I've written 109 posts on the Moneyness Blog that reference bitcoin, along with a few dozen articles at venues like...
The Diff
Meta's Least-Untrusted Clone Model Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More...
a month ago
35
a month ago
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More YouTube AI IP
Farnam Street
Tit For Tat Tit for tat is a strategy which, according to game theory, is the most effective choice for iterated...
over a year ago
50
over a year ago
Tit for tat is a strategy which, according to game theory, is the most effective choice for iterated games based on mutual cooperation or defection. Both players benefit if they cooperate, but one benefits and the other loses out if only they defect, and both lose out to a lesser...
Mazdak
Big Tech Donating to Trump's Inaugural Fund, Teens' Online Habits, More Tech Updates Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on...
a month ago
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
5 months ago
Bits about Money
The business of wallets How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
8 months ago
82
8 months ago
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
Musings on Markets
Just do it! Brand Name Lessons from Nike'sTroubles! I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how  a runner on the Oregon...
3 months ago
64
3 months ago
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how  a runner on the Oregon University track team built one of the great shoe companies in the world, in Nike. In addition to its entertainment value, and it is a fun book to read, I read it for two...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #163 Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's...
a year ago
18
a year ago
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's future, Nvidia, AI, Interpreting medical studies, Why Doomberg left Twitter, Jimmy Buffett, and more...
Commoncog
Commoncog's Next Phase Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains...
a year ago
79
a year ago
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains series free, and one more thing.
FIRE v London
Feeling broke My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is...
a year ago
103
a year ago
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is captured in my monthly portfolio updates, I thought it was worth recording some of my emotions while they are still fresh. Two years ago Turning the clock back, my financial...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #210 Disinflation vs. Deflation, Zooming Out, Warren Buffett's Apple Sales, Teens without Smartphones,...
5 months ago
43
5 months ago
Disinflation vs. Deflation, Zooming Out, Warren Buffett's Apple Sales, Teens without Smartphones, Adam Wright, Joel Greenblatt, Robert Kierlin, Bruce Berkowitz, Jeremy Grantham
Commoncog
Charlie Munger’s Supply Demand Curve Puzzle What a puzzle from Charlie Munger tells us about a supply-side business model with unreasonably high...
a year ago
Mazdak
Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones...
11 months ago
66
11 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones of Canadian financial planning. Both offer distinct advantages for saving and investing, but exceeding their annual contribution limits can lead to unwanted financial consequences.
balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
6 months ago
Mazdak
Yelp's Transformation: From Review Revolution to Advertising Efficiency Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a...
a year ago
49
a year ago
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. Shifting from a sales-driven model to a self-service advertising engine, Yelp has achieved significant efficiency gains and revitalized its...