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The Rational Walk
Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined...
11 months ago
The Rational Walk
A Very Strange Public Offering The story of the initial offering of Berkshire Hathaway's Class B stock is an excellent example of...
a year ago
28
a year ago
The story of the initial offering of Berkshire Hathaway's Class B stock is an excellent example of Warren Buffett's unconventional approach toward his business partners.
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
5 days ago
4
5 days ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December, revised. ...
Bits about Money
Demystifying financial leverage Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for...
over a year ago
18
over a year ago
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for financial firms.
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.9% in December Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP)...
a month ago
18
a month ago
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.9 percent in December after moving up 0.2 percent in November. In December, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth...
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
a year ago
134
a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
2 weeks ago
9
2 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to...
The Diff
The New National Champions Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile;...
a month ago
18
a month ago
Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile; Defense
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances...
a week ago
4
a week ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While As the table shows, Federal Reserve net income was substantially negative in 2023 and 2024, with a combined net loss in these two years of almost $200...
Mazdak
LinkedIn Goes All In on Vertical Video For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form...
a month ago
14
a month ago
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form video space.
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in...
6 days ago
4
6 days ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in February; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
a month ago
19
a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in...
Citation Needed
The crypto industry’s debanking smokescreen Cryptocurrency companies have co-opted legitimate concerns about banking discrimination to fight...
3 weeks ago
14
3 weeks ago
Cryptocurrency companies have co-opted legitimate concerns about banking discrimination to fight regulation — and Congress is buying it
Mazdak
How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie: A Summary and Key Takeaways Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential...
a year ago
84
a year ago
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential self-help books ever written. First published in 1936, it has sold over 50 million copies and been translated into over 30 languages. The book is a practical guide to improving...
Mazdak
Creating a Data-Driven LinkedIn Strategy: A Step-by-Step Guide One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its...
4 months ago
60
4 months ago
One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its performance, and adjust based on data.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 1 This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts...
a year ago
29
a year ago
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Take the statement, ‘I will only go for a walk if it’s nice outside AND I have free time.’ This can be neatly represented using a truth table. We can…
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
2 months ago
30
2 months ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the...
The Diff
The CoreWeave Triangle Plus! Gimmicks; Correlations; Continuous Search; Re-Emerging Markets; Tax Incidence
5 days ago
Mazdak
A Brighter Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024? The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples...
a year ago
78
a year ago
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples through the housing market, sparking both excitement and cautious optimism among prospective buyers and existing homeowners alike. While the prospect of lower mortgage rates is...
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and...
11 months ago
101
11 months ago
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and therefore warrant only six years of imprisonment. Prosecutors argue that 40–50 years are justified.
Mazdak
Working Out Will Change Your Life Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need...
a year ago
16
a year ago
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need to start working out. Working out has a myriad of benefits that can improve your life in many ways. Here are just a few of the ways that working out can change your life:
Calculated Risk
California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in...
2 weeks ago
10
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: Here a few more local markets prior to the NAR release tomorrow. Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.09 million...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates 25bp Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp...
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.   However, most market participants now expect the FOMC to pause in January and are split on a rate cut at the March...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #192 Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS,...
a year ago
103
a year ago
Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS, The bear case for China, Chris Davis, Michael Mauboussin
Calculated Risk
January 3rd COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Fed January SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate From the Federal Reserve: The January 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending...
a month ago
15
a month ago
From the Federal Reserve: The January 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The January 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses...
Mazdak
Bluesky’s Next Big Move: Introducing the Photo-Sharing App Flashes A new contender for the future of decentralized social media
a month ago
Musings on Markets
Data Update 8 for 2025: Debt, Taxes and Default - An Unholy Trifecta! There is a reason that every religion inveighs against borrowing money, driven by a history of...
2 weeks ago
12
2 weeks ago
There is a reason that every religion inveighs against borrowing money, driven by a history of people and businesses, borrowing too much and then paying the price, but a special vitriol is reserved for the lenders, not the borrowers, for encouraging this behavior. At the same...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #161 Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy...
a year ago
31
a year ago
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy band-aid; Plus insights from Todd Combs, Michael Burry, Joel Tillinghast, and Lee Ainslie.
Mazdak
Big Tech Ad Boom Tech giants are raking in cash as the digital ad market explodes!
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "Flat" in November; Multi-family Billings Turn Slightly Positive Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
2 months ago
32
2 months ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI November 2024: Architecture firm billings remain flat Despite the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score dipping slightly below 50 for the month, it remains close...
The Rational Walk
Concentrated Investments Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the company. What are the risks of concentrated investments in general and Berkshire in particular?
Commoncog
Charlie Munger’s Supply Demand Curve Puzzle What a puzzle from Charlie Munger tells us about a supply-side business model with unreasonably high...
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #155 Early Retirement, Chris Davis on Berkshire's future, Howard Marks on market cycles, Threads vs....
a year ago
26
a year ago
Early Retirement, Chris Davis on Berkshire's future, Howard Marks on market cycles, Threads vs. Twitter, Costco takes the high road, James Cameron, GEICO in the 1970s
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 3 This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
89
a year ago
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. The MNIST dataset is the “hello world” of machine learning, containing images of handwritten digits that are used to train machine learning models. It...
Calculated Risk
Question #5 for 2025: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Minutes: Concern about tariffs, "take time" on any additional Rate Cuts From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28–29, 2025. Excerpt: With...
2 weeks ago
10
2 weeks ago
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28–29, 2025. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although progress could remain...
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). ...
Commoncog
What To Think When Looking at a Chart In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb...
a year ago
81
a year ago
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb question that nobody seems to talk about.
The Diff
How Many Layers in the AI Stack? Plus! Scale; Outsourcing Capital; Closed-Loop Generative AI; The Perks of Market Power; Labor...
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down...
2 days ago
2
2 days ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 48 and DOW futures are down 294 (fair value). WTI futures at $67.04 per barrel and Brent at $70.36 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $79, and Brent was at $84 - so WTI oil prices...
Mazdak
Unplugging Australia: Kids vs. Social Media Australia is going offline!
3 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #220 The Intelligent Investor, Antitrust and Big Tech, Berkshire Hathaway's Moat, Nuclear War Risks, The...
4 months ago
56
4 months ago
The Intelligent Investor, Antitrust and Big Tech, Berkshire Hathaway's Moat, Nuclear War Risks, The Invisible Man, AIG's Rise & Fall, Housing Prices, Barbary Wars, Speeches of Pericles
Seeking Wisdom
Case for indexing Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In...
over a year ago
23
over a year ago
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In 1989, 65% of the top 20 global companies were domiciled in Japan. After three decades, 65% of the top 20 global companies are from the US. No companies from Japan made into the top...
Bits about Money
Payroll providers, Power, Respect Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is...
a year ago
Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
over a year ago
Mazdak
Google's Ad Business Under Fire in Europe Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces...
a year ago
28
a year ago
Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe The European Commission has made a formal antitrust complaint against Google and its ad business. In a preliminary opinion, the regulator says Google has...
Mazdak
AI Gone Wrong? Can Chatbots Be Held Responsible for Suicide? This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and...
4 months ago
27
4 months ago
This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and later died by suicide.
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
a month ago
17
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.54% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Construction Spending Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday). mortgage purchase applications index. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 223...
oftwominds-Charles...
When Markets Misbehave Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the...
2 weeks ago
12
2 weeks ago
Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the soundness of the hull and the level of self-reinforcing hubris. When Benoit Mandelbrot's book The (Mis)behavior of Markets was published in 2004, it was a revelation for many of...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.4% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 January As expected with the MLK Day holiday, the...
a month ago
16
a month ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 January As expected with the MLK Day holiday, the U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 25 January. ... 119-25 January 2025 (percentage change from comparable week...
Calculated Risk
January 25th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. SPECIAL NOTE:...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. SPECIAL NOTE: The CDC has stopped releasing health data (hopefully temporarily). For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised...
Mazdak
Jury Delivers Major Blow to Google in Antitrust Case: Play Store Deemed Illegal Monopoly In a historic ruling that could shake the foundations of the mobile app ecosystem, a federal jury...
a year ago
38
a year ago
In a historic ruling that could shake the foundations of the mobile app ecosystem, a federal jury has found Google Play guilty of violating antitrust laws in a lawsuit brought by Epic Games. This landmark decision has sent shockwaves through the tech industry and raised questions...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales Fannie and Freddie: Single...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Longreads Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in...
a month ago
31
a month ago
Longreads Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in doing what was previously thought to be impossible. It's not so much a unified theory of extreme effort as it is a comprehensive refutation of the existence of such theories. There...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 217,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the...
a month ago
76
a month ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 201,000 to 203,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of...
a week ago
6
a week ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries “The Fed’s balance sheet runoff increases the supply of Treasuries. It’s easier for me to extend duration when I’m not competing with another big seller.” This statement...
Mazdak
How to Use Pain to Fuel Your Personal Evolution Pain is inevitable, especially if you're chasing ambitious goals. But what if I told you that pain...
a year ago
38
a year ago
Pain is inevitable, especially if you're chasing ambitious goals. But what if I told you that pain can be a powerful tool for personal evolution? When you're feeling pain, it's a sign that you need to find a solution. This is an opportunity to learn and grow. If you can develop a...
Citation Needed
Issue 58 – Threats to the stability and integrity of Ethereum The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's...
9 months ago
141
9 months ago
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's creditors, and Biden threatens a crypto veto.
Mazdak
5 Sneaky Financial Traps Sabotaging Your Middle-Class Dream (and How to Escape Them) In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth...
a year ago
34
a year ago
In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth amidst rising costs and shifting landscapes requires careful navigation, avoiding insidious traps that can derail your financial goals. This newsletter identifies
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
2 months ago
30
2 months ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in...
The Rational Walk
Coffee Can Investing Sometimes an investing approach that is not necessarily "rational" from an economic perspective can...
a year ago
25
a year ago
Sometimes an investing approach that is not necessarily "rational" from an economic perspective can produce superior results when one accounts for human nature.
Mazdak
Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and...
a year ago
64
a year ago
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and diversify your portfolio. However, it's important to do your research and take the necessary steps to ensure a successful transition. Here are some practical tips for entrepreneurs...
Commoncog
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota on Human-AI Symbiosis Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented...
a month ago
32
a month ago
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented approach to AI in real world domains.
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.5% in January From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased 0.5 percent in January after moving up 1.0 percent in December. In January, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following...
The Diff
AI's Impact on the Written Word is Vastly Overstated Plus! VC IPOs; Sovereign Wealth Funds; The Return of Structured Products; LLM Moderation; Risk...
a week ago
oftwominds-Charles...
Corporations as Modern-Day Warlords Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an...
4 weeks ago
9
4 weeks ago
Read carefully between the lines, for all this will come to pass. Let me start by offering an apology to all those whose blood pressure will skyrocket upon reading this thought experiment. As we all know, science--the real thing, not "science"--advances via informed...
balajis.com
Network School Curriculum Topics, reading, and speakers.
a month ago
Mazdak
AI Energy Fears: Overblown or the Next Crisis? Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
January Vehicle Forecast: Sales Decline to 15.6 million SAAR, Up 4% YoY From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay...
a month ago
16
a month ago
From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay content).  Brief excerpt: While demand in the middle of the month was negatively impacted by extreme weather conditions across most of the country, with a week remaining in January...
Mazdak
Fed Signals Shift to Easing: Rate Cuts Likely in 2024, Economy Expected to Remain Solid. The Federal Reserve is signalling a change of course, and it's music to the ears of businesses,...
a year ago
33
a year ago
The Federal Reserve is signalling a change of course, and it's music to the ears of businesses, investors, and everyday Americans. After two years of aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation, the central bank is now laying the groundwork for a shift towards easing
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Increases to 54.1% in December (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.1%, up from 52.1% last month. The...
2 months ago
23
2 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.1%, up from 52.1% last month. The employment index decreased to 51.4%, from 51.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 54.1% December 2024 Services ISM® Report On...
Commoncog
When Action Beats Prediction One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ......
a year ago
143
a year ago
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ... isn't. What a theory of expertise in entrepreneurship tells us about creating new things in business.
Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Decreased in Q4 2024 The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased...
a week ago
6
a week ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased in 2024 Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios Persisted emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. From the FDIC: The...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire...
11 months ago
49
11 months ago
The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices was not a party to the agreement but its business model will still be affected.
Mazdak
OpenAI in Turmoil: Altman and Brockman Join Microsoft, Employees Revolt In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the...
a year ago
31
a year ago
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the non-profit research company behind groundbreaking artificial intelligence advancements, are joining Microsoft to lead a new research unit. This move comes after failed talks to reinstate...
The Rational Walk
The Other Side of the Trade Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other...
9 months ago
90
9 months ago
Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other stocks to temporarily crash on June 3, 2024.
The Diff
Infrastructure on top of Infrastructure Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous...
2 months ago
51
2 months ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous Consumption Baskets as Subtle Union-Busting; Second-Order Effects
oftwominds-Charles...
If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On? Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. ...
a week ago
7
a week ago
Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an...
Moneyness
It's time to trash the "store of value" function of money When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that...
2 months ago
4
2 months ago
When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that money has three functions: medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value. Maybe it’s time for educators to throw out this triumvirate. It’s not very accurate.  We need a...
Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately" Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal...
a month ago
26
a month ago
Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew...
The Rational Walk
The Limits of the 25th Amendment The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe...
8 months ago
78
8 months ago
The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe limits that should be acknowledged.
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night: Markets Closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025 US markets will be closed in observance of Martin...
a month ago
22
a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025 US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day WTI futures at $77.88 per barrel and Brent at $80.79 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $74, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are up about 5%...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Problem With Money Isn't Money The Problem With Money is that it's complicated. To many minds, the solution to our core...
2 weeks ago
14
2 weeks ago
The Problem With Money is that it's complicated. To many minds, the solution to our core economic problems is to return to sound money via either the gold standard, in which gold backs all currency, or by substituting bitcoin for gold, i.e. bitcoin becomes the coin of the...
Commoncog
Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
12 months ago
Mazdak
Block, TikTok & Beyond From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping...
4 months ago
47
4 months ago
From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping our digital world.
The Diff
Uber's AV Bet on a Narrow Range of Competitors' ROI Outcomes Plus! The Grid, and Cross-Subsidies; Pricing AI; Owning the Login; Liquidity Premium; Supply Chains
3 weeks ago
FIRE v London
May ’23: Magic megatech May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
a year ago
62
a year ago
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)...
a week ago
6
a week ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in January 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S....
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a small world, after all! If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one...
a month ago
8
a month ago
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one that I have taken hundreds of times, first with my own children and more recently, with my grandchildren. It is a mainstay of every Disney theme park, from the original Disneyland...
Commoncog
The Study of Asian Tycoons What can we learn from the study of Asian conglomerates, and the small group of tycoons that control...
a month ago
14
a month ago
What can we learn from the study of Asian conglomerates, and the small group of tycoons that control them?
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings "Little Unchanged" at 8.1 million in November From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed...
2 months ago
29
2 months ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations were little changed at 5.3...
FIRE v London
Compounding, type II Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of...
4 months ago
58
4 months ago
Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of compound annual growth rates is something I feel quite viscerally, the more so with each month that I track my portfolio. But I’ve been struck recently by a radical improvement in...
Commoncog
The Gambling King The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling...
a month ago
19
a month ago
The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling king of Macau.
Mazdak
Regulating Crypto Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end...
3 months ago
46
3 months ago
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end for crypto, or a necessary step towards mainstream adoption?
Moneyness
Here’s why we tolerate fake check scams Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad...
a month ago
6
a month ago
Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad experiences with banks. Here’s a recent example. In November 2024, a charity inadvertently accepted a fake check from a would-be donor. The charity's bank allowed the charity to deposit...
Musings on Markets
Dealing with Aging: Updating the Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks Stories! A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that...
6 months ago
5
6 months ago
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that the corporate life cycle can explain what happens to companies as they age, and why they  have to adapt to aging with their actions and choices. In parallel, I also noted that...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #181 Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò Machiavelli, internal vs. external goals, Safe withdrawal rates, Protecting your time
Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 3.4% Year-over-year in December Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for December. The recent Case-Shiller index...
a month ago
11
a month ago
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for December. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for November. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Ticks Up Slightly in December • The...
Citation Needed
New York Times: Crypto's fragile foundations My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency...
a year ago
37
a year ago
My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency industry that can lead to death spirals like the one at FTX.
Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
over a year ago
79
over a year ago
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
Calculated Risk
February Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR, Up 1.5% YoY From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay...
2 weeks ago
7
2 weeks ago
From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Sales are recording solid gains, but production slowdowns capping dealer stock in a growth market – a market that ostensibly still is climbing out of the...
Commoncog
Focus on the Cases Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than...
over a year ago
70
over a year ago
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than synthesised business concepts.
Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.8% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the November Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
The Diff
Good Accounting is a Positive Externality Plus! Crossovers; Politics: Back on Meta; Structure; Gradual Tariffs; Property Rights
a month ago
Calculated Risk
January Employment Report: 143 thousand Jobs, 4.0% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and...
a month ago
13
a month ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, retail trade, and social assistance....
Commoncog
Strong at Capital, Bad at Everything Else Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but...
a year ago
56
a year ago
Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but weak in just about everything else.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024 From the MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024...
a month ago
12
a month ago
From the MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024 Delinquency rates for mortgages backed by commercial properties increased during the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest commercial real...
Mazdak
Perplexity AI’s Bold Move to Merge with TikTok As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a...
a month ago
30
a month ago
As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a surprising yet intriguing bidder to merge with TikTok US.
The Rational Walk
GEICO Prioritizes Profits Over Market Share Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price...
a year ago
30
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price of ceding market share that will be costly to regain in the future.
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
over a year ago
67
over a year ago
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
Calculated Risk
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to All! High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!) beach in Newport. Best Wishes to All!
2 months ago
Mazdak
Interest Rates Dip, But Will Demand Follow? As the housing market continues its dynamic dance, a recent drop in interest rates presents a...
a year ago
39
a year ago
As the housing market continues its dynamic dance, a recent drop in interest rates presents a curious conundrum. While the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for qualifying loans sunk to 6.83%, purchase applications surprisingly declined 1%. This begs the question:
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 3 During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies...
a year ago
69
a year ago
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies during the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s is a perfect case study.
The Diff
The Annoying Path to Privacy Herd Immunity Plus! Robots; Competition; Model Moderation; Eggs; Sentiment
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth Consecutive Month Existing-home sales retreated in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slipped in three major U.S. regions and held steady in the...
Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge 'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
a year ago
76
a year ago
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Amazon’s Pricing Policies Promote Inflation The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when...
a year ago
3
a year ago
The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when 20 states joined the US Department of Justice to sue Microsoft. These cases revolve around whether consumers are harmed by the company’s actions. The case against Amazon focuses...
Calculated Risk
January Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is...
a month ago
12
a month ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is for 170,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. IMPORTANT NOTE: For the household survey, new population controls will be used - and this will boost...
Mazdak
10 Steps to Transform Your Life As someone who has built and scaled multiple businesses over decades, I've learned that success...
4 months ago
52
4 months ago
As someone who has built and scaled multiple businesses over decades, I've learned that success isn't about sporadic breakthroughs—it's about consistent, intentional changes in how we think and act.
balajis.com
The Network State Book A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
17
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
6 months ago
79
6 months ago
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Hackers, Safety, EBITDA, More Hackers, Feudalism, Randomness, CEOs
a week ago
Mazdak
DeepSeek Ban in Australian, Google Reverses Stance on AI Weaponization, ... 1.
a month ago
balajis.com
The Network State Book A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder...
over a year ago
25
over a year ago
A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder on Amazon.
Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.5% YoY in January Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
a week ago
5
a week ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through January 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.4% year-over-year in January, down from 4.6% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
Calculated Risk
Monday: Pending Home Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last of regional...
Citation Needed
No, Trump didn’t make $50 billion from his memecoin Journalists’ flawed math and ignorance of crypto markets turn tokens into fake fortunes
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts and Recessions This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading...
2 weeks ago
11
2 weeks ago
This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. Quintanilla quoted BESPOKE: “On a 12-month average basis, .. Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak .. Housing is the basis of one of my...
The Diff
Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth? Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
2 weeks ago
Mazdak
OpenAI Launches o3-mini: A Faster, More Affordable AI Reasoning Model OpenAI has just unveiled o3-mini, the latest addition to its "reasoning" model family.
a month ago
Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "End the year on a weak note" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1 for the month as the share of firms reporting...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Crises Yet to Come "Controlling the narrative" to justify destabilizing asymmetries won't change the consequences. ...
a month ago
7
a month ago
"Controlling the narrative" to justify destabilizing asymmetries won't change the consequences. That the Trump Reformation / Counter-Reformation is disrupting various nodes of the status quo is viewed as an existential crise by many. The choice between Reformation /...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Richard the Great This is a eulogy for my father. Its goal is to honor the man for who he was and what he...
over a year ago
4
over a year ago
This is a eulogy for my father. Its goal is to honor the man for who he was and what he accomplished, but also to pass on the lessons we can learn from his life. Richard Michael Hart was born on November 1st, 1941 in Porirua, New Zealand. Richard was not so studious. He...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 219,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,500, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 225,500. emphasis added The...
FIRE v London
In praise of Berkshire Hathaway I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the...
a year ago
104
a year ago
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the year 2000. I loved the story. Starting from, as the story was told back then, humble beginnings and a paper round, Warren Buffett (and Charlie – who I will stop mentioning but...
Calculated Risk
December Employment Report: 256 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social...
Citation Needed
Cryptocurrency companies have raised over $115 million to influence US elections this cycle, and... As election season kicks into high gear, we need to watch how cryptocurrency companies are...
9 months ago
Moneyness
Pricing the anonymity of banknotes Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a standard set of payments...
3 months ago
4
3 months ago
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a standard set of payments services, they also offer financial anonymity. This post introduces the idea of trying to price the anonymity component.  To help think about why we might want to price anonymous...
The Rational Walk
Burlington Northern Santa Fe — 2023 Results Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
a year ago
Mazdak
X's Ad Business Faces Its Toughest Challenge Yet In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are...
a year ago
28
a year ago
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are suspending ad spending on the platform. This comes in response to owner Elon Musk's endorsement of an antisemitic post, as well as to a report by Media Matters For America that...
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a...
6 days ago
4
6 days ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Brief excerpt: Property Insurance Premiums Increased Sharply in 2024 • The average annual property insurance premium among mortgaged single-family homes rose by a...
Mazdak
Google's Gemini Enters the AI Arena: Ready to Take on OpenAI? Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This...
a year ago
76
a year ago
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This powerful AI is set to shake things up, potentially rivaling big names like OpenAI and Microsoft. What's the Buzz About Gemini? Gemini comes in three flavors:
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
a month ago
12
a month ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the...
The Diff
Two Kinds of News Business Plus! AI as an Interface; Post-Post; Meta-Moderation; Custom Finance; Voice and Search
4 days ago
Mazdak
OpenAI’s Ph.D.-Level Super Agents The AI landscape is evolving at breakneck speed, and OpenAI is leading the charge.
a month ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade,...
3 days ago
3
3 days ago
Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade, Karp
Commoncog
Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a...
a year ago
87
a year ago
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a deliberate practice training program isn't as difficult as you might think.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #190 Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben...
a year ago
82
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben Graham's summer on a farm, Income taxes, Interviews of Bruce Berkowitz and Howard Marks, and more...
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
a year ago
83
a year ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
The Rational Walk
Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023) A life well lived
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
3 weeks ago
9
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 224 thousand from 219 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for January from the BLS. The...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188 Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
a year ago
78
a year ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
FIRE v London
Jan ’23: Mr Market defuses my tax bombshell January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during...
over a year ago
63
over a year ago
January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during the month (not to Davos, no), and enjoy myself in London despite the wintry weather. What you’re paying for in Mayfair these days Market movements in January The markets on the...
Calculated Risk
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Kotkin, Luttwak, Poker, DRW, PCs, Statistics, AI, Hamilton
2 months ago
Mazdak
Canadian Mortgage Debt Growth Slows to Two-Decade Low, But Remains Elevated Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to...
a year ago
37
a year ago
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to data from the Bank of Canada (BoC). However, mortgage debt growth remains historically high, despite the recent slowdown. The BoC's latest data shows that outstanding mortgage...
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $78.2 Billion in November The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November, up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October, revised. ...
Bits about Money
BAM's Early Adopter discount ends soon Bits about Money's Early Adopter discount ends on January 31st, 2023.
over a year ago
Calculated Risk
Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is...
a month ago
12
a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025 ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.5, up from 49.3 in December. Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending. Light vehicle sales for...
Citation Needed
We can have a different web Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
10 months ago
103
10 months ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Increased Slightly in Q3 2024 The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024: The Industry’s Net Income Decreased...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024: The Industry’s Net Income Decreased From the Prior Quarter, Driven by One-Time Items Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios Persists the industry reported the largest...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
a month ago
30
a month ago
Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
a year ago
93
a year ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
Commoncog
Data is an Added Sense A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in...
7 months ago
88
7 months ago
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in business.
Mazdak
TFSA 2025: Your Complete Guide to Tax-Free Savings in Canada In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to...
3 months ago
39
3 months ago
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to be a bright spot for Canadian investors.
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Decreases to 52.8% in January (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The...
a month ago
12
a month ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The employment index increased to 52.3%, from 51.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 52.8% January 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
Commoncog
The Story of Samsung How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s...
4 weeks ago
17
4 weeks ago
How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s economy.
Mazdak
TFSA Talk: Unlocking Tax-Free Wealth 🇨🇦 Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
4 months ago
Citation Needed
Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x" Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
93
a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 6th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory will...
2 months ago
32
2 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.   The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #195 BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
11 months ago
86
11 months ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage...
2 weeks ago
9
2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.47% of servicers’ portfolio...
Mazdak
Meta's Fake AI Profiles, the TikTok Ban, Telegram Updates, and Microsoft's $80 Billion AI Investment... Meta's AI Experiment: What Went Wrong?
2 months ago
Commoncog
Capital Allocation as an Antidote to Business Luck The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a...
a year ago
76
a year ago
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a business outcome. Capital allocation matters because it allows you more skill, less luck, on the journey to a large outcome.
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
12 months ago
72
12 months ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #212 Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates,...
6 months ago
73
6 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates, Competing in Search, The American Dream, Li Lu, Deep Dive into AI, The Impact of Debt, and more ...
Mazdak
Tesla's Robotaxi: A Gamble? Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on...
4 months ago
36
4 months ago
Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on October 10th.
Moneyness
A glass half-full take on Caucasus sanctions evasion Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being...
5 months ago
4
5 months ago
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being carried out through the Caucasus. He visits the Lars border crossing between Georgia and Russia to document how smugglers are openly moving British and German luxury cars into Russia, in...
Commoncog
The Dangers of Expansion A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and...
6 months ago
76
6 months ago
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and everyone really only learns this through pain.
Calculated Risk
Comments on January Employment Report The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November...
a month ago
12
a month ago
The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to...
Calculated Risk
December 20th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 months ago
36
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Mazdak
Loonie on the Brink: Can Canada Escape US Monetary Policy? The Canadian and American economies are deeply intertwined.
4 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #186 Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment...
a year ago
82
a year ago
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment checklists, Shane Parrish interviews Tom Gayner, Novo Nordisk, Howard Marks on interest rates
The Rational Walk
Roth IRA Conversions For Early Retirees Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and...
5 months ago
49
5 months ago
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and avoid falling into a high tax bracket.
Calculated Risk
Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 months ago
23
2 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
The Rational Walk
The Year in Review Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
a year ago
Mazdak
Yelp's Transformation: From Review Revolution to Advertising Efficiency Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a...
a year ago
53
a year ago
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. Shifting from a sales-driven model to a self-service advertising engine, Yelp has achieved significant efficiency gains and revitalized its...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Retail sales for...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Retail sales for January is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a no change in retail sales. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January. The consensus is for a 0.3%...
Commoncog
Dancing Landscapes in Business Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the...
over a year ago
77
over a year ago
Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the wickedness of business.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #222 Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online...
4 months ago
47
4 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online Speech, Price Controls, Shakespeare's Caesar, Musk and SpaceX, Micro-Cap Investing
balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
7 months ago
Mazdak
Canadian Real Estate Market Predictions for 2024 As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for...
a year ago
36
a year ago
As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for investors. While the explosive growth of recent years is likely to abate, a multitude of factors will continue to shape the market's trajectory. Understanding these factors is crucial for...
Commoncog
The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same...
a year ago
86
a year ago
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same time? Deming — who came up with these data techniques — believe that it is possible. I'm not so sure.
Bits about Money
Two Americas, one bank branch, and $50,000 cash Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of...
6 days ago
13
6 days ago
Ever wondered what happens if you try to take $50,000 in cash out of a bank? Answer: a year of investigative journalism.
Mazdak
The Best Age to Start Taking Social Security: It's Not What You Think When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may...
a year ago
24
a year ago
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may want to consider taking them sooner, even if it means a smaller monthly check. Here's why: Your benefits will grow by 8% per year for each year you delay taking them, up to age...
Calculated Risk
The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales An update: The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light...
a month ago
11
a month ago
An update: The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light trucks and SUVs) through January 2025. Click on graph for larger image. Over time the mix has changed toward more and more light trucks and SUVs.  Only when oil prices are high, does...
Citation Needed
Businessweek: Crypto Got What It Wanted in November’s Election. Now What? The industry is now in a position to weaken financial rules that might protect consumers from the...
2 months ago
The Diff
The Nvidia Way is the Regular Way, Just Faster Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese...
2 months ago
43
2 months ago
Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese Characteristics
Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 months ago
30
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales tomorrow, Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96...
Mazdak
The Rollercoaster Ride of Long-Term Rates: What it Means for You and the Economy Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that...
a year ago
36
a year ago
Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that had everyone from policymakers to financial analysts glued to their screens? Well, guess what? It's mostly reversed! What does this mean? In a nutshell, it means a sigh of relief...
Mazdak
The "Buy, Borrow, Die" Strategy: How the Wealthy Avoid Taxes The wealthy have a secret weapon when it comes to taxes: the "buy, borrow, die" strategy. This...
a year ago
19
a year ago
The wealthy have a secret weapon when it comes to taxes: the "buy, borrow, die" strategy. This strategy allows them to avoid capital gains taxes, interest payments, and estate taxes. Here's how it works: Buy assets and hold them. This could be anything from real estate to stocks...
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in November The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
a month ago
22
a month ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.8% (down from 3.9% YoY in November), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (down slightly from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy...
Mazdak
Big Tech Donating to Trump's Inaugural Fund, Teens' Online Habits, More Tech Updates Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on...
2 months ago
Commoncog
Executing on Becoming Data Driven: The Technicals A technical overview of how I'm applying the methods and ideas of the Becoming Data Driven in...
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #218 Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles,...
5 months ago
63
5 months ago
Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles, Doing what you love, Human aging, Ray Ozzie on intelligent machines, Aesop's Fables
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
11 months ago
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
over a year ago
67
over a year ago
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
Mazdak
The Growth Rocket Fuel of Low Gross Margin Businesses When most people think of successful businesses, they think of businesses with high gross margins....
a year ago
26
a year ago
When most people think of successful businesses, they think of businesses with high gross margins. After all, a high gross margin means that a business is making a lot of money on each sale. However, there are a number of successful businesses that have low gross margins. These...
Mazdak
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Advertising Monopoly. Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. iPhone 15 Pro Max: Everything We Know So Far About...
a year ago
22
a year ago
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. iPhone 15 Pro Max: Everything We Know So Far About Apple's Next Flagship. Reddit Protests Continue as Company Threatens to Remove Moderators. Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. Gannett, the largest U.S. newspaper chain, has...
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal Annual Meeting Notes A reader has generously shared his notes from the Daily Journal annual meeting which took place in...
8 months ago
103
8 months ago
A reader has generously shared his notes from the Daily Journal annual meeting which took place in Los Angeles on February 15, 2024.
Mazdak
In the AI Race: Embrace Commoditization, Focus on Customer Value The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for...
a year ago
44
a year ago
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for attention and a slice of the market pie. In this competitive environment, it's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of proprietary components and cutting-edge algorithms,...
The Rational Walk
Staying the Course It is much easier for "know nothing" investors to stick with a dollar cost averaging program in the...
3 weeks ago
13
3 weeks ago
It is much easier for "know nothing" investors to stick with a dollar cost averaging program in the long run.
Mazdak
AI Fuels Alphabet's Growth Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
4 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #203 American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value...
9 months ago
67
9 months ago
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value Investor's Club, Nietzsche's world view, Are wrist watches effeminate?, Seinfeld on writing
Mazdak
Amazon Glasses: Seeing the Future of Delivery Amazon is developing smart glasses for their delivery drivers to navigate routes, locate packages,...
3 months ago
36
3 months ago
Amazon is developing smart glasses for their delivery drivers to navigate routes, locate packages, and even take photos of deliveries as proof for customers.
Mazdak
Canada's Retail Pulse: Holiday Shopping Season Navigates Mixed Signals Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday...
a year ago
51
a year ago
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday season. While October saw a surprising 0.7% increase in retail sales, exceeding economist expectations, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend in the face of rising...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: CPI Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up...
Calculated Risk
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 6% in January From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 6% in January The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI),...
a month ago
12
a month ago
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 6% in January The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 5.6% in January to 225.7 (2000=100) from the revised December reading of 213.6. Over the month, commercial planning increased 4.2% while...
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on Learning I was learning how to program during the mid to late 90s. Finding learning material in a world...
over a year ago
23
over a year ago
I was learning how to program during the mid to late 90s. Finding learning material in a world without the Internet, Google, and YouTube was incredibly challenging. I struggled to understand how pointers in C worked. Yashavant Kanetkar’s Understanding Pointers in C book helped me...
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.4% in December; Spending increased 0.7% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased...
a month ago
23
a month ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $92.0 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in December, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #182 Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire,...
a year ago
58
a year ago
Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire, Better habits for 2024, Amusing CPA stories, Ben Graham, Charlie Munger, Pernod Ricard
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
a year ago
78
a year ago
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
a year ago
67
a year ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release January Existing Home sales on Friday, February 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million in...
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 2 This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts...
a year ago
75
a year ago
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts before reading this one. When using linear and logistic regression, which involve just a single linear equation, calculating derivatives is easy since there is only one equation...
Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
over a year ago
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in January The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.6% (down from 3.7% YoY in December), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (down from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.3% to 3.1% From Goldman: We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter...
2 months ago
23
2 months ago
From Goldman: We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q4 domestic final sales forecast stands at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Dec 27th estimate] emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate...
3 weeks ago
249
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest A brief excerpt: When talking about the so-called “neutral” interest rate, many financial commentators, financial analysts, and even monetary policymakers talk about...
balajis.com
Crypto Twitter Found SBF's Fraud The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate...
2 months ago
23
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. The previous three months were...
Mazdak
CPP vs OAS: Understanding Canada's Core Retirement Benefits 🇨🇦 Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension...
3 months ago
23
3 months ago
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS).
Citation Needed
POSSE: Reclaiming social media in a fragmented world A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still...
5 months ago
67
5 months ago
A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still maintaining a presence on third-party platforms.
Moneyness
After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the...
2 months ago
4
2 months ago
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the topic starting with my first post in October 2012. Since then I've written 109 posts on the Moneyness Blog that reference bitcoin, along with a few dozen articles at venues like...
The Rational Walk
Donald Trump’s Resounding Victory Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable...
4 months ago
48
4 months ago
Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable majority in the electoral college but a likely majority in the national popular vote as well.
The Rational Walk
Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of...
a year ago
79
a year ago
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of the annual commitments pledged in 2006.
Citation Needed
Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
a year ago
Musings on Markets
DeepSeek crashes the AI Party: Story Break, Change or Shift? I am going to start this post with a confession that my knowledge of the architecture and mechanics...
a month ago
10
a month ago
I am going to start this post with a confession that my knowledge of the architecture and mechanics of AI are pedestrian and that there will be things that I don't get right in this post. That said, DeepSeek's abrupt entry into the AI conversation has the potential to change the...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
a month ago
162
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 7 for 2025: The End Game in Business! I am in the third week of the corporate finance class that I teach at NYU Stern, and my students...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
I am in the third week of the corporate finance class that I teach at NYU Stern, and my students have been lulled into a false sense of complacency about what's coming, since I have not used a single metric or number in my class yet. In fact, we have spent almost four sessions...
Farnam Street
Language: Why We Hear More Than Words It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me...
over a year ago
72
over a year ago
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me forgetting her birthday! Then why is she throwing dishes in the kitchen? Are the two things related? I wish I had a translator for my spouse. What is going on?” The answer: Extreme...
Mazdak
2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step 2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to...
a year ago
85
a year ago
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to generate human-quality text, while chipmaker Nvidia pushed the boundaries of what's possible with graphics processing units (GPUs). But amidst the hype, there were also concerns about...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread VC, Personal Finance, Careers, Hedge Funds, Hiring, Investing, Coase, Gates
a month ago
Commoncog
Lee Walker and the Dell Growth Plateau How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination,...
a year ago
52
a year ago
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination, and creative deal-making.
Calculated Risk
Initial Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-high 2% Range From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)...
a month ago
17
a month ago
From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate at +2.3%. We launched our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate at +2.3%, in line with the advance reading. [Jan 31st estimate] emphasis...
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas in 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 2.1% YoY; Convention Traffic Unchanged YoY From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: December 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Closing out the...
a month ago
16
a month ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: December 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Closing out the year with Dec visitation of 3.4M visitors (+0.2% YoY), Las Vegas hosted approx. 41.7M visitors for the year, up 2.1% from last year’s 40.8M visitors. emphasis added Click on graph...
Mazdak
Anthropic's AI Breakthrough & Boeing's Q3 Disaster Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases...
4 months ago
24
4 months ago
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases mind-blowing new capabilities.
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in February, Intermodal Up From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts...
20 hours ago
1
20 hours ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Uncertainty shapes economic cycles — fueling booms, triggering busts, and driving debates about what comes next. Uncertainty abounds in the railroad industry...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
a year ago
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2025: The Party Continued (for US Equities) In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years,...
a month ago
7
a month ago
In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025. That rise was driven by a surge in US equity...
Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
a year ago
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2025: Interest Rates, Inflation and Central Banks! It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more...
a month ago
7
a month ago
It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more evidence on the limited power that central banks have to alter the trajectory of market interest rates. We started 2024 with the consensus wisdom that rates would drop during the year,...
Mazdak
Trudeau's resignation, Dana White joining Meta's board, YouTube taking on TikTok, SuperIntelligence... After nearly a decade in leadership, Justin Trudeau announced his decision to step down as Prime...
2 months ago
Mazdak
Google Challenges EU’s New Disinformation Rules In a bold move that could reshape the future of content moderation, Google has informed the European...
a month ago
25
a month ago
In a bold move that could reshape the future of content moderation, Google has informed the European Union it will not incorporate fact-checking into its search results or YouTube rankings, despite the requirements of the EU’s new Disinformation Code of Practice.
Mazdak
Tech Today - Apple Smart Home Camera Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
3 months ago
Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
9 months ago
106
9 months ago
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP, Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
2 months ago
31
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 232 thousand initial claims, down from 242 thousand last week. Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (Third...
Citation Needed
Issue 72 – A seat at the table The SEC is still busy even though it may soon be undermined, crypto industry capture of government...
2 months ago
47
2 months ago
The SEC is still busy even though it may soon be undermined, crypto industry capture of government continues to worsen, and several media outlets botch their crypto reporting at a time it’s needed most.
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.47% in December From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.47% in December The...
a month ago
20
a month ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.47% in December The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.50% of servicers’...
Calculated Risk
February 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a week ago
6
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
oftwominds-Charles...
AI Is a Digital Parrot: Word-Traps, False Logic and the Illusion of Intelligence Word traps and false logic don't lead to dominance of the future or monopolistic grips on limitless...
a month ago
7
a month ago
Word traps and false logic don't lead to dominance of the future or monopolistic grips on limitless profits. The heart of the current euphoric expectations for AI is a simple but problematic proposition: the equivalence of function equals intelligence. If using natural...
Calculated Risk
Comments on February Employment Report The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and...
4 days ago
3
4 days ago
The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to...
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
a year ago
72
a year ago
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
The Rational Walk
The Digest #163 Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's...
a year ago
24
a year ago
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's future, Nvidia, AI, Interpreting medical studies, Why Doomberg left Twitter, Jimmy Buffett, and more...
FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
3 months ago
61
3 months ago
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
Calculated Risk
Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Citation Needed
Follow the Crypto FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024...
8 months ago
99
8 months ago
FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024 elections in the United States.
Mazdak
The Latest in Smartglasses Tech From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of...
3 months ago
40
3 months ago
From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of smartglasses is heating up!
Bits about Money
The infrastructure behind ATMs ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
over a year ago
Citation Needed
Not just one bad apple: FTX's practices were business as usual in crypto Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret...
2 months ago
43
2 months ago
Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret acquisitions of “grey area” businesses, buying influence, and creative accounting.
The Diff
There is an "AI Factor," and It's Worth Hedging Plus! Sweeteners; The American Difference; AI Experiments; Media Relations; Sanctions are Hard,...
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs? Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #202 George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter...
9 months ago
51
9 months ago
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter syndrome, Decline of higher education, Howard Schultz, Cathie Wood, Robert Hagstrom
The Rational Walk
The Digest #207 Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed...
7 months ago
44
7 months ago
Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed memories, Lost knowledge, Todd Combs, Walter Schloss, Bob Noyce, Nietzsche, Lincoln
Mazdak
Nvidia Takes the Crown: The AI Chip Giant Dethrones Apple Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print...
a week ago
6
a week ago
From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print and a tenth higher than our tracking estimate. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 28th] emphasis added From Goldman:...
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.56% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
oftwominds-Charles...
The One True Test of AI Intelligence The point of this thought experiment is to reveal the true nature of our relationship with AI: we...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
The point of this thought experiment is to reveal the true nature of our relationship with AI: we only love it as a mindless slave that makes us rich. From the earliest days of artificial intelligence, what test proves AI equivalence with human intelligence has been the...
The Rational Walk
Measuring Competence Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as...
5 months ago
45
5 months ago
Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as clear when it comes to investing.
Calculated Risk
The Normal Seasonal Change for Median House Prices Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR:...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January, I mentioned that the median price typically bottoms seasonally in January (contracts signed mostly in November and December)...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Investment Advice Which Stands the Test of Time There is investment advice in the book of Jewish religious law (the Talmud). It advises that you...
10 months ago
6
10 months ago
There is investment advice in the book of Jewish religious law (the Talmud). It advises that you keep 1/3rd of your wealth in business, 1/3rd in land, and 1/3rd in gold. It's genius. Why? First, it's simple. Second, business, and, to a lesser extent, land, (but not gold, usually)...
Mazdak
Meta Fined & FBI on Polymarket Meta slapped with a HUGE EU fine, the FBI is investigating Polymarket...
3 months ago
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Why We Shouldn’t “Buy the Dip” “Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the...
a year ago
3
a year ago
“Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the assumption that asset prices will quickly revert, enabling you to make money. This article explains why a government-driven culture of “buying the dip” can be damaging to you and...
Citation Needed
Issue 67 – Bug out bitcoin Crypto resurfaces on the campaign trail and the FTX fallout continues to unfold. Also, merch!
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter" Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions...
a month ago
16
a month ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter" From the NMHC: Apartment Market Experiences Loosening Conditions, Decreased Deal Flow and Less Available Financing to Start the New Year Apartment...
Mazdak
LinkedIn Faces Lawsuit Over Alleged Data Use for AI Training In a rapidly evolving digital landscape, privacy and data usage are hot topics—and LinkedIn,...
a month ago
26
a month ago
In a rapidly evolving digital landscape, privacy and data usage are hot topics—and LinkedIn, Microsoft’s business-focused social media platform, is at the center of the latest debate.
Mazdak
OpenAI vs. DeepSeek: The AI Arms Race Heats Up The battle for artificial intelligence supremacy has taken a new turn, and it’s raising major...
a month ago
24
a month ago
The battle for artificial intelligence supremacy has taken a new turn, and it’s raising major concerns about intellectual property, competition, and the future of AI development.
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.3% in November; Spending increased 0.4% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased...
2 months ago
31
2 months ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses Bonds...
13 hours ago
1
13 hours ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses Bonds are once again paying attention to weakness in stocks--it just happened to take a bigger drop in stocks that we saw last week. Despite the improvement in rates, we would still...
FIRE v London
Dec ’24 – 2024 in review And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024....
2 months ago
53
2 months ago
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024. I’ll follow the 7 point approach I’ve used for the last few years, starting with the wider market context. Q1 How did markets do? December saw falls across most asset classes –...
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
a year ago
19
a year ago
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 6 for 2025: From Macro to Micro - The Hurdle Rate Question! In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest...
a month ago
9
a month ago
In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. I spend most of my time in the far less rarefied air of corporate finance and valuation, where businesses try to decide...
Citation Needed
Issue 48 – Bitcoin has "no chance" of going to the moon Bitcoin ETF fakeouts, imaginary CEOs, and a bridge hack make for an eventful start to the new year.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Just Hold the Goddamn Stock! Charlie Munger's solution to estate planning at Berkshire was simple: Just Hold the Goddamn Stock!...
5 months ago
45
5 months ago
Charlie Munger's solution to estate planning at Berkshire was simple: Just Hold the Goddamn Stock! Unfortunately, his advice is not easy to follow.
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Sales in December (4.24 million SAAR) were up 2.2% from the previous month and were 9.3% above the December 2023 sales rate. This was the third consecutive...
Mazdak
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed...
a year ago
53
a year ago
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed as contributions to nonprofit organizations. Shares of Amazon fell 1.8% on Nov. 15 and 0.3% on Nov. 16. Bezos still holds 988.3 million shares of Amazon, around 10% of the company.