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Mazdak
OpenAI’s Operator Tool: A Glimpse into the Future of Autonomous AI Agents Imagine an AI tool that doesn’t just assist but takes over tasks like writing code, booking travel,...
a month ago
23
a month ago
Imagine an AI tool that doesn’t just assist but takes over tasks like writing code, booking travel, or managing your schedule—all autonomously.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2024: Profitability - The End Game for Business? In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free...
a year ago
4
a year ago
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Victim of Your Own Success Syndrome Midland, Texas. More oil gets drilled here than anywhere else in the USA. And it’s lucrative....
10 months ago
3
10 months ago
Midland, Texas. More oil gets drilled here than anywhere else in the USA. And it’s lucrative. There’s a lot of money to be made. We’re talking about $100,000+ for risky jobs that don’t require a college degree. Okay, but what happens if you have a non-oil business when oil gets...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and...
5 months ago
46
5 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and now is the sole owner of the energy company.
Bits about Money
The Bond villain compliance strategy Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out...
a year ago
102
a year ago
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out for Binance and its CEO. Spoiler: poorly.
Mazdak
Inside xAI: Musk vs. OpenAI Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his...
3 months ago
26
3 months ago
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his former company, OpenAI, to do it.
Mazdak
Trump's Antitrust Agenda: Big Tech in the Balance Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
4 months ago
Commoncog
An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two...
over a year ago
77
over a year ago
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two months in: what I learnt, what was hard, and what deliberate practice actually feels like.
Mazdak
A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the...
a year ago
84
a year ago
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the economy that remains ill: the office sector of the U.S. commercial real-estate market. ** What's the Problem?** Hybrid/remote work: What began as a two-week work-from-home...
Moneyness
Ending the penny won't lead to more nickels Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing the penny because it is unprofitable,...
3 weeks ago
16
3 weeks ago
Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing the penny because it is unprofitable, costing 3.69 cents to produce each one. In response, the lobbyists that earn big profits from the ongoing existence of the penny have come out in full force with dubious arguments for...
The Diff
The One-Big-Side-Bet Model of Wealth Creation Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on...
3 months ago
29
3 months ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on Investment Goes; Broken ETFs; Swipe Fees and Accounting
Citation Needed
Issue 76 – Tripartisan legislation Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and...
a month ago
17
a month ago
Crypto exchanges face legal troubles, and Trump’s crypto empire grows as regulations are slashed and enforcement is sidelined.
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 2 This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for...
a year ago
81
a year ago
This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I concluded the previous post by explaining how Attention works. You can download the Excel sheet and Python code that explains how Attention from here and...
Bits about Money
KYC and AML: beyond the acronyms Know Your Customer policies at financial institutions have more nuance than you'd expect.
over a year ago
Citation Needed
Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through...
9 months ago
Calculated Risk
Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Gross Domestic...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and Year 2024 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.6% annualized in Q4. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released....
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
10 months ago
127
10 months ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
Calculated Risk
Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
The Rational Walk
The Trust Deficit My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the...
8 months ago
90
8 months ago
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the urgent need to correct course.
Mazdak
What is QSBS? As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul...
a year ago
46
a year ago
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul into your company, and you want to see it thrive. But taxes can eat into your profits, leaving you feeling frustrated and discouraged. That's where QSBS (Qualified Small Business...
The Rational Walk
Biden’s Withdrawal and the Limits of Gaslighting President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the...
7 months ago
86
7 months ago
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the Democratic Party and allies in the mainstream media.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "Home ATM" Mostly Closed At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1:...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 2nd...
Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.7% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below...
a week ago
7
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the December Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 months ago
36
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales on Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million...
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
a week ago
5
a week ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 460 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
Mazdak
OpenAI's Meltdown: A Fight for the Future of AI The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching...
a year ago
41
a year ago
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching implications for the future of artificial intelligence (AI). OpenAI, known for its groundbreaking ChatGPT technology, is considered a frontrunner in the AI race, and its fate could...
Mazdak
Google Challenges EU’s New Disinformation Rules In a bold move that could reshape the future of content moderation, Google has informed the European...
a month ago
25
a month ago
In a bold move that could reshape the future of content moderation, Google has informed the European Union it will not incorporate fact-checking into its search results or YouTube rankings, despite the requirements of the EU’s new Disinformation Code of Practice.
Citation Needed
When did cryptocurrency policy become a voter issue? I don’t believe that it has.
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for...
3 weeks ago
11
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates A brief excerpt: Housing economist Tom Lawler has written extensively on the neutral rate. He has argued that the neutral rate has increased back to...
Mazdak
Canada's Retail Pulse: Holiday Shopping Season Navigates Mixed Signals Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday...
a year ago
51
a year ago
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday season. While October saw a surprising 0.7% increase in retail sales, exceeding economist expectations, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend in the face of rising...
Citation Needed
Big publishers think libraries are the enemy The recent Second Circuit decision in Hachette v. Internet Archive is only the latest battle in the...
6 months ago
59
6 months ago
The recent Second Circuit decision in Hachette v. Internet Archive is only the latest battle in the war on libraries and the freedom to read.
Calculated Risk
Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #167 TIPS for Retirement, BYD vs. Tesla, Katalin Karikó's vindication, Teledyne, Helzberg Diamonds,...
a year ago
31
a year ago
TIPS for Retirement, BYD vs. Tesla, Katalin Karikó's vindication, Teledyne, Helzberg Diamonds, Interviews of Marc Andreessen and Shane Parrish, David Senra's review of Jimmy Buffett's autobiography
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales Fannie and Freddie: Single...
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.9% in December Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP)...
a month ago
19
a month ago
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.9 percent in December after moving up 0.2 percent in November. In December, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth...
Mazdak
Tesla's Robotaxi: A Gamble? Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on...
4 months ago
36
4 months ago
Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on October 10th.
Musings on Markets
Fed up with Fed Talk? Fact-checking Central Banking Fairy Tales! The big story on Wednesday, September 18, was that the Federal Reserve’s open market committee...
5 months ago
4
5 months ago
The big story on Wednesday, September 18, was that the Federal Reserve’s open market committee finally got around to “cutting rates”, and doing so by more than expected. This action, much debated and discussed during all of 2024, was greeted as "big" news, and market...
Mazdak
How DeepSeek, a Chinese AI Startup, is Challenging the Titans of Silicon Valley In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western...
a month ago
22
a month ago
In the ever-evolving world of artificial intelligence, the stage has been dominated by Western giants like OpenAI, Google, and Meta.
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
a year ago
134
a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
Mazdak
Big Tech Layoffs, Musk Acquiring TikTok, ChatGPT's New Features, ... Meta is executing a strategic 5% workforce reduction, but this isn't your typical layoff.
a month ago
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
2 months ago
23
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
oftwominds-Charles...
Welcome to the DeepSeek Disruption (DSD) In summary: bloated headcounts, no new sources of revenue from AI, and limitless content with no...
a month ago
8
a month ago
In summary: bloated headcounts, no new sources of revenue from AI, and limitless content with no scarcity value. Welcome to the DSD: DeepSeek Disruption. I've been fruitfully engaged in a lively dialog with readers on my Substack regarding my post yesterday Is DeepSeek a...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
a month ago
19
a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in...
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.6 million in December From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 7.6...
a month ago
14
a month ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 7.6 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations were little changed at 5.5 million...
Moneyness
Bitcoin as a tool of U.S. economic statecraft Riot Platform's Rockdale, Texas facility, North America’s largest Bitcoin mining farm by developed...
7 months ago
4
7 months ago
Riot Platform's Rockdale, Texas facility, North America’s largest Bitcoin mining farm by developed capacity [source] Can a network that has been marketed as being resistant to government power be harnessed by the U.S. administrative state in order to attain its foreign policy...
Mazdak
AI Fuels Alphabet's Growth Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
4 months ago
Calculated Risk
December Employment Report: 256 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social...
balajis.com
The Balaji Newsletter A single place for all updates at balajis.com
a year ago
Mazdak
Understanding Family Trusts in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide What is a Family Trust?
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.5% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 February The U.S. hotel industry reported negative...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 February The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 8 February. ... 2-8 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 55.9%...
Calculated Risk
December 20th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 months ago
36
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Farnam Street
Why Write Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
over a year ago
83
over a year ago
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and...
11 months ago
101
11 months ago
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and therefore warrant only six years of imprisonment. Prosecutors argue that 40–50 years are justified.
The Diff
Globalization, Regulatory Arbitrage, and Reshoring-on-Paper Plus! Antitrust Enforcement; Full-Stack; Decentralizing; Spoiler Bids; Platform Management
4 weeks ago
Moneyness
After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the...
2 months ago
4
2 months ago
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the topic starting with my first post in October 2012. Since then I've written 109 posts on the Moneyness Blog that reference bitcoin, along with a few dozen articles at venues like...
Mazdak
Nvidia Takes the Crown: The AI Chip Giant Dethrones Apple Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
4 months ago
The Rational Walk
Burlington Northern Santa Fe — 2023 Results Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
a year ago
Mazdak
Google's AI Search Tool: A Traffic Nightmare for Publishers? AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
a year ago
Mazdak
2024 Tax Changes in Canada: A Detailed Guide for Canadians 💰🇨🇦 The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year,...
a year ago
35
a year ago
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year, adjustments and updates across various areas present both opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. Let's explore the key changes and consider their potential ramifications.
Calculated Risk
Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen Here is a YouTube video of a discussion with Mike Simonsen. Enjoy.
a month ago
Musings on Markets
The Corporate Life Cycle: Managing, Valuation and Investing Implications! As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children...
6 months ago
4
6 months ago
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children are quick to point out my age, and I accept that reality, for the most part. I understand that I am too old to exercise without stretching first or eat a heaping plate of cheese...
Mazdak
Why 2024 will be the year of the Delivery Drone? For years, drone delivery has hovered on the horizon, a tantalizing glimpse of a futuristic utopia...
a year ago
57
a year ago
For years, drone delivery has hovered on the horizon, a tantalizing glimpse of a futuristic utopia where packages pirouette through the air and land at our doorsteps with clockwork precision. But 2024 marks a pivotal juncture, a year where the sci-fi fantasy transforms into a...
Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US) Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
a year ago
102
a year ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
The Rational Walk
Claim Checks Viewing money as "claim checks" that can be exchanged for goods and services is a very useful...
7 months ago
56
7 months ago
Viewing money as "claim checks" that can be exchanged for goods and services is a very useful concept.
The Rational Walk
Concentrated Investments Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the company. What are the risks of concentrated investments in general and Berkshire in particular?
Mazdak
The 7 Steps to Becoming a Top Investor Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going...
a year ago
23
a year ago
Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going to share with you the seven steps that I believe are essential for becoming a top investor. Step 1: Develop a Clear Investment Philosophy The first step to becoming a great...
Commoncog
The Limits of Operational Excellence An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven,...
10 months ago
128
10 months ago
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven, achieve operational excellence, and die, and others acquire Process Power and win?
Mazdak
Canada Tax Brackets 2025 🇨🇦 As we head into 2025, understanding Canada's tax brackets is crucial for both individuals and...
3 months ago
40
3 months ago
As we head into 2025, understanding Canada's tax brackets is crucial for both individuals and businesses.
The Rational Walk
The Thirty Second Mind Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty" From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy...
6 days ago
3
6 days ago
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to be in a good place. The labor market is solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal. At the Federal Reserve, we are intently focused on the...
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
a year ago
83
a year ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
Calculated Risk
February 7th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Mazdak
Nearly All US Job Growth in November Came From Just 3 Sectors! Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's...
a year ago
33
a year ago
Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's even more interesting is that nearly all of this job growth came from just three sectors! So, which sectors are we talking about? Healthcare: Leading the pack with a steady demand...
The Rational Walk
Just Hold the Goddamn Stock! Charlie Munger's solution to estate planning at Berkshire was simple: Just Hold the Goddamn Stock!...
5 months ago
45
5 months ago
Charlie Munger's solution to estate planning at Berkshire was simple: Just Hold the Goddamn Stock! Unfortunately, his advice is not easy to follow.
Citation Needed
Issue 74 – Stop asking me questions like “where does the yield come from” Regulators and lawmakers eagerly prepare to abdicate any last traces of interest in the wellbeing of...
a month ago
39
a month ago
Regulators and lawmakers eagerly prepare to abdicate any last traces of interest in the wellbeing of everyday Americans as they suck up to the powerful billionaires who will soon be publicly calling the shots.
Mazdak
Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market? In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more...
11 months ago
113
11 months ago
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more pressing than ever. Soaring property values and rising interest rates have created a complex landscape, leaving many wondering: is homeownership still the golden ticket to building...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.8% to 2.7% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three...
2 months ago
29
2 months ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three tenths to 1.8% q/q saar. The final estimate of 3Q GDP came in at 3.1% q/q saar, close to our tracking of 3.0%. [Jan 10th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP...
balajis.com
The Fiat Crisis This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
A Comment on GDPNow On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed...
a week ago
5
a week ago
On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed went strongly negative in the most recent reading: "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on...
Citation Needed
Issue 66 – Pretensions to relevance FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky...
5 months ago
80
5 months ago
FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky goes to trial, and some more ill-received blockchain games suggest “GameFi” has an uncertain future.
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the...
2 months ago
29
2 months ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,500, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 224,250. emphasis added The...
Seeking Wisdom
Case for indexing Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In...
over a year ago
23
over a year ago
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In 1989, 65% of the top 20 global companies were domiciled in Japan. After three decades, 65% of the top 20 global companies are from the US. No companies from Japan made into the top...
Calculated Risk
Two Bank Failures in 2024 There were four bank failures in 2024. The median number of failures since the FDIC was established...
a month ago
23
a month ago
There were four bank failures in 2024. The median number of failures since the FDIC was established in 1933 was 7 - so 2 failures in 2024 was below the median. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph includes pre-FDIC failures. In a typical year - before the...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
a month ago
24
a month ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,499,000. This is 15.8 percent above the revised November estimate of 1,294,000, but is 4.4 percent below the December 2023 rate of 1,568,000. Single-family housing starts...
Citation Needed
Issue 71 – (Crypto) banks are not your friends Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech...
3 months ago
52
3 months ago
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech billionaires complain about “debanking”.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #222 Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online...
4 months ago
48
4 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 Results, BRK 2X Long Daily Target ETF, Presidential Election Polling, Online Speech, Price Controls, Shakespeare's Caesar, Musk and SpaceX, Micro-Cap Investing
Calculated Risk
January Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is...
a month ago
13
a month ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is for 170,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. IMPORTANT NOTE: For the household survey, new population controls will be used - and this will boost...
Mazdak
Fed Signals Shift to Easing: Rate Cuts Likely in 2024, Economy Expected to Remain Solid. The Federal Reserve is signalling a change of course, and it's music to the ears of businesses,...
a year ago
33
a year ago
The Federal Reserve is signalling a change of course, and it's music to the ears of businesses, investors, and everyday Americans. After two years of aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation, the central bank is now laying the groundwork for a shift towards easing
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December,...
a month ago
69
a month ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and slipped in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales accelerated in all four...
oftwominds-Charles...
Going Cold Turkey in our Addiction Economy We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We...
3 days ago
4
3 days ago
We're prone to addiction, and addiction is highly profitable. They know it, and we know it. We inhabit an Addiction Economy. We all know the cure for addiction is to go Cold Turkey: drop the denial and delusion of control, and excise the source of the addiction from one's...
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
93
a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
Moneyness
Tornado Cash un-OFAC'ed The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado...
3 months ago
4
3 months ago
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado Cash, a bot that can be used for obfuscating crypto, is safe from being sanctioned. I first wrote about Tornado Cash in 2021, before its legal troubles began, warning of the risks...
Mazdak
Minimize Taxes, Maximize Inheritance: A Canadian Guide to Estate Planning with Real Estate For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key...
a year ago
47
a year ago
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key concerns. In this context, real estate, often the largest asset, presents unique challenges and opportunities. While strategies like adding children to titles were once popular,...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Construction Spending Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday). mortgage purchase applications index. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 223...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #171 American Prometheus, Buffett buys more OXY, Share repurchases, Lessons from Todd Combs, The nature...
a year ago
25
a year ago
American Prometheus, Buffett buys more OXY, Share repurchases, Lessons from Todd Combs, The nature of risk, Damodaran on markets, Keynes on the Treaty of Versailles, Attia on longevity
The Diff
The Large- and Small-Home Market Advantages Plus! Who Bears Ban Risk?; Carvana and Short-Selling Economics; VC; Productivity; A More Normal...
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
ISM® Services Index Decreases to 52.8% in January (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The...
a month ago
12
a month ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The employment index increased to 52.3%, from 51.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. Services PMI® at 52.8% January 2025 Services ISM® Report On...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2024 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential...
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
a year ago
113
a year ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 13th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.7% Week-over-week, Up 23.6% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory will...
a month ago
22
a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.   The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click...
Calculated Risk
December 27th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 months ago
33
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
a year ago
88
a year ago
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦) Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
a year ago
73
a year ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
Commoncog
The Capital Cycle What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
a year ago
82
a year ago
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
Mazdak
Income Splitting with a Lower-Income Spouse: Strategies and Considerations 🇨🇦 Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be...
a year ago
46
a year ago
Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be powerful tools for maximizing tax benefits and building wealth. This article explores various strategies for couples where one spouse earns significantly more than the other,...
Calculated Risk
1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024...
a month ago
23
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006 A brief excerpt: Although total housing starts decreased 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023, completions increased sharply...
balajis.com
The Start Of Startup Cities Miami demonstrates that the era of startup cities is now underway.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a...
a week ago
5
a week ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Brief excerpt: Property Insurance Premiums Increased Sharply in 2024 • The average annual property insurance premium among mortgaged single-family homes rose by a...
The Diff
Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth? Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
2 weeks ago
The Diff
Two Kinds of News Business Plus! AI as an Interface; Post-Post; Meta-Moderation; Custom Finance; Voice and Search
6 days ago
Bits about Money
The business of wallets How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
10 months ago
92
10 months ago
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
Mazdak
The Weight-Loss Gold Rush A Race to Develop Blockbuster Obesity Drugs
a year ago
Mazdak
Elon Musk: All In He's the richest man in the world, a tech titan, and now...
4 months ago
Commoncog
Under The Hood How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
4 months ago
56
4 months ago
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
Mazdak
Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖 In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open...
a year ago
74
a year ago
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open source development has emerged, firing shots at the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. These tech giants have captured much of the AI spotlight in 2023, but the alliance believes...
Moneyness
How my views on financial privacy have evolved over a decade I began exploring the topic of financial privacy and payment anonymity in the early days of this...
3 months ago
4
3 months ago
I began exploring the topic of financial privacy and payment anonymity in the early days of this blog. Over the past decade, my views have shifted significantly—here's how and why. Rereading my earliest mentions of financial privacy, they now seem a bit... idealistic? extreme?...
Citation Needed
POSSE: Reclaiming social media in a fragmented world A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still...
5 months ago
68
5 months ago
A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still maintaining a presence on third-party platforms.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #187 Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the...
a year ago
87
a year ago
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the market, Damodaran data updates, Apple packaging, Samsung, Big Pharma
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
2 months ago
31
2 months ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the...
Commoncog
Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
over a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #170 The Precautionary Principle, GEICO Layoffs, Superlinear Returns, TIPS for Retirement, Rockefeller's...
a year ago
53
a year ago
The Precautionary Principle, GEICO Layoffs, Superlinear Returns, TIPS for Retirement, Rockefeller's advice to his son, Impact of GLP-1 agonists, Tesla's IPO, Conference call transcripts, and more ...
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
a year ago
81
a year ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Mazdak
The "Buy, Borrow, Die" Strategy: How the Wealthy Avoid Taxes The wealthy have a secret weapon when it comes to taxes: the "buy, borrow, die" strategy. This...
a year ago
19
a year ago
The wealthy have a secret weapon when it comes to taxes: the "buy, borrow, die" strategy. This strategy allows them to avoid capital gains taxes, interest payments, and estate taxes. Here's how it works: Buy assets and hold them. This could be anything from real estate to stocks...
The Diff
What Would it Look Like if The Pod Shop Model Blew Up? Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
2 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #159 Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning...
a year ago
26
a year ago
Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning books, How Threads was built, BYD challenges Tesla, Katalin Karikó's inspiring life
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 50.3% in February (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3%...
a week ago
5
a week ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3% in February, down from 50.9% in January. The employment index was at 47.6%, down from 50.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 48.6%, down from...
Commoncog
An Increase in Membership Prices Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old...
a year ago
46
a year ago
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
Calculated Risk
Comments on February Employment Report The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and...
6 days ago
4
6 days ago
The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to...
Citation Needed
Issue 70 – The Cryptocurrency States of America Crypto’s efforts to buy the 2024 elections paid off, and we’re in for a bumpy ride.
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate...
4 weeks ago
249
4 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest A brief excerpt: When talking about the so-called “neutral” interest rate, many financial commentators, financial analysts, and even monetary policymakers talk about...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. MBA:...
a month ago
12
a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate...
Mazdak
Can Quantum Break Crypto? Trump to Rescue TikTok? Tech in Defence ... Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
2 months ago
FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
10 months ago
138
10 months ago
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
12 months ago
100
12 months ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
7 months ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade...
a month ago
15
a month ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade deficit​. ----- Monday, February 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.5, up from 49.3 in December. 10:00 AM:...
Mazdak
The Big News: ChatGPT Pays Up for Content, Ushering in a New Era for Media & AI Get ready for a paradigm shift, folks! News just dropped that OpenAI, the brains behind ChatGPT, has...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Get ready for a paradigm shift, folks! News just dropped that OpenAI, the brains behind ChatGPT, has signed a multi-year licensing deal with Axel Springer, the media giant behind Politico and Business Insider. This isn't just any deal, it's a game-changer
Citation Needed
Substackers Against Nazis A collective letter to Substack leadership.
a year ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
a month ago
30
a month ago
Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in February, Intermodal Up From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts...
3 days ago
3
3 days ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Uncertainty shapes economic cycles — fueling booms, triggering busts, and driving debates about what comes next. Uncertainty abounds in the railroad industry...
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Low 2% Range From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th] emphasis added From...
3 weeks ago
11
3 weeks ago
From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th] emphasis added From Goldman: Following this morning’s retail sales and industrial production reports, we lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +2.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1...
The Rational Walk
The Iliad Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
11 months ago
81
11 months ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
Citation Needed
Issue 67 – Bug out bitcoin Crypto resurfaces on the campaign trail and the FTX fallout continues to unfold. Also, merch!
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
2 months ago
32
2 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November Lawler:...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings, ISM Services From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week The bond...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week The bond market and interest rates have arrived at the first full week of the new year almost exactly where they left off before the X-mas/New Year holiday weeks. ... Although the past 2...
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and...
7 months ago
4
7 months ago
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my...
Mazdak
RRSP Guide for New Immigrants to Canada: Everything You Need to Know As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the...
4 months ago
29
4 months ago
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP).
Commoncog
The Dangers of Expansion A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and...
6 months ago
76
6 months ago
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and everyone really only learns this through pain.
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Increased 0.5% in January From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased 0.5 percent in January after moving up 1.0 percent in December. In January, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #160 Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan,...
a year ago
27
a year ago
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan, Flawed memories, Podcast interviews with Rudy Havenstein, Doomberg, Paul Graham, and Guy Spier.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Amazon’s Pricing Policies Promote Inflation The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when...
a year ago
4
a year ago
The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when 20 states joined the US Department of Justice to sue Microsoft. These cases revolve around whether consumers are harmed by the company’s actions. The case against Amazon focuses...
Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "End the year on a weak note" Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1 for the month as the share of firms reporting...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 213,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to...
balajis.com
Bond Villain When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
a year ago
Mazdak
The Future of Healthcare: Your AI Health Pod is Here! 🩺 Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and...
a year ago
38
a year ago
Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and hello to the CarePod, your self-contained doctor's office powered by artificial intelligence. Imagine: Stepping into a futuristic pod at your local mall, gym, or even office...
Mazdak
Creating a Data-Driven LinkedIn Strategy: A Step-by-Step Guide One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its...
5 months ago
61
5 months ago
One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its performance, and adjust based on data.
Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
a year ago
67
a year ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
Mazdak
Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀
a year ago
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
a year ago
72
a year ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
The Rational Walk
Too Clever by Half! The temptation to trade in the stock market can be overwhelming, especially when prices are moving...
a year ago
36
a year ago
The temptation to trade in the stock market can be overwhelming, especially when prices are moving quickly. It's useful to ask, "What would Charlie Munger say?"
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Being an Amazon Seller in 2021; Year in Review I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart (est. 2010), an e-commerce focused educational toy company. We...
over a year ago
4
over a year ago
I’m the founder and CEO of Viahart (est. 2010), an e-commerce focused educational toy company. We did $8.8 million in sales in 2021. This article is going to tell you what it was like to run this business in 2021 vs. 2020, amidst threats like the Amazon aggregators, supply chain...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 7 for 2025: The End Game in Business! I am in the third week of the corporate finance class that I teach at NYU Stern, and my students...
4 weeks ago
10
4 weeks ago
I am in the third week of the corporate finance class that I teach at NYU Stern, and my students have been lulled into a false sense of complacency about what's coming, since I have not used a single metric or number in my class yet. In fact, we have spent almost four sessions...
Mazdak
Google and the Canadian Government Reach a Deal on Online News Act The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three...
a year ago
66
a year ago
The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three weeks before the act is scheduled to come into effect. The deal will see Google continue to show Canadian news on its platforms in exchange for annual payments to Canadian news...
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 2 This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts...
a year ago
75
a year ago
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts before reading this one. When using linear and logistic regression, which involve just a single linear equation, calculating derivatives is easy since there is only one equation...
Commoncog
Lesley Sim on Skill Acceleration in Ultimate Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World...
a year ago
97
a year ago
Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World Championship Team in 2020, her approach to skill acceleration, and why a teaching technique designed for dogs and dolphins works just as well on humans!
Commoncog
Executing on Becoming Data Driven Every analytics project consists of two parts. The technical part, and then the 'get the...
a year ago
49
a year ago
Every analytics project consists of two parts. The technical part, and then the 'get the organisation on board' part. We talk about why the latter is the real challenge.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides,...
5 months ago
30
5 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides, Sophocles, Persian Fire, Hillbilly Elegy, and more.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #227 Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI...
3 months ago
45
3 months ago
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI Statistics, Ergodicity, The End of Shame, Notre Dame, Online Censorship, Healthcare Costs
The Rational Walk
The Digest #176 Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land,...
a year ago
83
a year ago
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land, John Oliver skewers dollar stores, Apple regrets, The Great Books Journal
Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
a week ago
6
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
11 months ago
99
11 months ago
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
Musings on Markets
Just do it! Brand Name Lessons from Nike'sTroubles! I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how  a runner on the Oregon...
5 months ago
5
5 months ago
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how  a runner on the Oregon University track team built one of the great shoe companies in the world, in Nike. In addition to its entertainment value, and it is a fun book to read, I read it for two...
Mazdak
Google's Gemini Enters the AI Arena: Ready to Take on OpenAI? Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This...
a year ago
77
a year ago
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This powerful AI is set to shake things up, potentially rivaling big names like OpenAI and Microsoft. What's the Buzz About Gemini? Gemini comes in three flavors:
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 Housing Starts and Recessions Chicago Fed National...
2 weeks ago
9
2 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 Housing Starts and Recessions Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up...
Calculated Risk
Friday: ISM Mfg, Vehicle Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday). ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.3, down from 48.4 in November. Light vehicle sales for...
Mazdak
Netflix Discontinues Basic Plan in Canada Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it...
a year ago
22
a year ago
Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it plans to discontinue the plan altogether, but it is no longer available to new or rejoining members. The Basic plan was the most affordable option for Netflix subscribers in Canada,...
Mazdak
How to Start a Cleaning Company Without Cleaning The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion...
a year ago
22
a year ago
The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion by 2026. This growth is being driven by a number of factors, including the increasing number of dual-income households, the growing popularity of Airbnb, and the rising demand for...
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence is FINALLY HERE! 🤯 What You NEED to Know! 🧠 Join us as we explore Apple's groundbreaking AI platform:
4 months ago
The Diff
Capital-Intensity and Legibility Plus! AI as Half an Interface; Network Effects and Boycotts; OpenAI and Structure; Strategic...
a month ago
16
a month ago
Plus! AI as Half an Interface; Network Effects and Boycotts; OpenAI and Structure; Strategic Reserves; Meta says Yes to Jevons
The Rational Walk
The Digest #221 Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro:...
4 months ago
49
4 months ago
Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro: Success or Failure?, Berkshire in the 1960s, Whole Foods, Black Diamond, Merck, Wormholes
The Rational Walk
The Digest #192 Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS,...
a year ago
103
a year ago
Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS, The bear case for China, Chris Davis, Michael Mauboussin
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.00 million SAAR in February Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability...
a week ago
5
a week ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability Headwind, U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Rise 3.4% in February (pay site). Continuing January’s trend, market strength was at the two far ends of the affordability scale, as entry-price cars...
Mazdak
AI Energy Fears: Overblown or the Next Crisis? Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
3 months ago
The Rational Walk
Measuring Competence Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as...
5 months ago
45
5 months ago
Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as clear when it comes to investing.
Calculated Risk
Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts...
a month ago
27
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts for December. The consensus is for 1.315 million SAAR, up from 1.289 million SAAR. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase...
The Diff
Venture Global as a Well-Structured Trade Plus! Agents; Capital Returns; Creator Underwriting; Crypto Plays; Airlines
a month ago
Mazdak
Subscription Overload: The Rise of Recurring Revenue The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches...
a year ago
52
a year ago
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches onto the subscription business model. This is because businesses can make more money up-front and over time by selling subscriptions and building loyalty. They can also mine...
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 122,000 in December From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December “The...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December “The labor market downshifted to a more modest pace of growth in the final month of 2024, with a slowdown in both hiring and pay gains. Health care stood out in the second half of the year,...
Moneyness
The end of El Salvador's bitcoin payments experiment Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use...
4 weeks ago
9
4 weeks ago
Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use bitcoin for payments. Last month, four years later, it notched another record: it became the first country to rescind bitcoin's status as required tender. This backtracking was the...
Citation Needed
Video: The Cryptocurrency Industry's Unprecedented Election Spending Let's talk about where the money came from, where it went, the cryptocurrency industry's political...
3 months ago
The Diff
Text and Telos Plus! Diff Jobs; Scaling; Retail Investors; Comparative Advantage; Transaction Costs and Corporate...
3 days ago
3
3 days ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Scaling; Retail Investors; Comparative Advantage; Transaction Costs and Corporate Structure; DeepSeek Governance
The Diff
Meme Markets Plus! Equity Comp, Squared; Venture Debt; 5%; Crypto Leverage; Closed-End Funds
a month ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #213 Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects,...
6 months ago
69
6 months ago
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects, Personal Bots, Bitcoin, AI vs. Reality, "Useless" Knowledge, Jay Bowen, Rudy Havenstein
The Rational Walk
The Digest #181 Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò Machiavelli, internal vs. external goals, Safe withdrawal rates, Protecting your time
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
10 months ago
The Rational Walk
There’s Always a Reason Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an...
a year ago
20
a year ago
Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an important option for customers chronically short on cash.
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 days ago
2
2 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
oftwominds-Charles...
The Problem With Money Isn't Money The Problem With Money is that it's complicated. To many minds, the solution to our core...
3 weeks ago
15
3 weeks ago
The Problem With Money is that it's complicated. To many minds, the solution to our core economic problems is to return to sound money via either the gold standard, in which gold backs all currency, or by substituting bitcoin for gold, i.e. bitcoin becomes the coin of the...
Mazdak
Microsoft Unveils Majorana 1: A Quantum Leap Towards the Future After 17 years of research and development, Microsoft has unveiled its first quantum...
3 weeks ago
16
3 weeks ago
After 17 years of research and development, Microsoft has unveiled its first quantum processor—Majorana 1. This breakthrough has the potential to redefine the future of computing, promising industrial-scale problem-solving and scientific discovery at an unprecedented level.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Culture in 2050 By mid-century, changes in Berkshire Hathaway's voting control could make a breakup of the...
2 weeks ago
The Rational Walk
Hesiod’s Works and Days One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it...
10 months ago
98
10 months ago
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it was 2,700 years ago.
Commoncog
The 2024 Commoncog Recap Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
2 months ago
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2024: Danger and Opportunity - Bringing Risk into the Equation! In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023,...
a year ago
5
a year ago
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound. In this post, I look at risk, a central theme in finance and...
Mazdak
Google Quantum Computer, OpenAI Sora Video Generator and more ... Google just dropped a bombshell in quantum computing.
3 months ago
The Rational Walk
Thucydides Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between...
6 months ago
78
6 months ago
Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between 431 - 404 BC.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Durable Goods, Case-Shiller House Prices From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Only Moderately Lower After Tech...
a month ago
14
a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Only Moderately Lower After Tech Rout Even though there is some uncertainty about the near-term Fed rate outlook and even though we have a Fed meeting coming up on Wednesday, today was all about conventional wisdom for...
Citation Needed
Issue 53 – Choose rich Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
12 months ago
Musings on Markets
The Siren Song of Sustainability: The Theocratic Trifecta's Third Leg! You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in...
3 months ago
4
3 months ago
You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in sanctimony, nurtured in hypocrisy and sold with sophistry. My voyage with ESG began with curiosity in my 2019 exploration of what it purported to measure, turned to cynicism as the...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000 The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
a week ago
4
a week ago
The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
FIRE v London
I’m 28, and can’t figure out how to start on FatFIRE – what would you do in my shoes? From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from...
8 months ago
101
8 months ago
From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from the London School of Economics in 2017 after which I went through the hardest few years of my life mentally and ended up unemployed or in dead-end low paid jobs. I currently work...
Mazdak
Can Zuckerberg Challenge Google's Search Empire? Mark Zuckerberg is making a bold move to challenge Google's long-standing dominance in the search...
4 months ago
47
4 months ago
Mark Zuckerberg is making a bold move to challenge Google's long-standing dominance in the search engine market.
Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
195
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Commoncog
The Story of Samsung How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s...
a month ago
17
a month ago
How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s economy.
Mazdak
AI.com to Chat.com: OpenAI's Domain Domination From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've...
4 months ago
25
4 months ago
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've dropped a huge amount of cash – likely over $15.5 million – to snag the premium domain Chat.com.
Calculated Risk
FOMC Minutes: "The process [of reaching inflation target] could take longer than previously... From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17–18, 2024. Excerpt: With...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17–18, 2024. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on...
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in...
a week ago
5
a week ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in February; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief...
Calculated Risk
December Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.7 million SAAR, Up 5% YoY From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on...
2 months ago
29
2 months ago
From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on Inventory (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Improved affordability is the main thrust to the end-of-year improvement in demand, with higher consumer confidence also likely a...
Calculated Risk
NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter" Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions...
a month ago
16
a month ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter" From the NMHC: Apartment Market Experiences Loosening Conditions, Decreased Deal Flow and Less Available Financing to Start the New Year Apartment...
Commoncog
What Rigorous Process Improvement in Education Looks Like What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
5 months ago
80
5 months ago
What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should do this in your own organisational contexts.
The Rational Walk
In the Zone Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to...
10 months ago
58
10 months ago
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to provide valuable insights about our health.
The Diff
The Economics of Logos Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost...
a month ago
30
a month ago
Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost Avoidance; State AI Investment
The Diff
What Would a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Actually Do? Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State:...
3 months ago
18
3 months ago
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State: Beauty Filters Edition
Seeking Wisdom
What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a...
9 months ago
119
9 months ago
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a plate full of french fries. It takes an enormous amount of energy to break bad habits. I’ve broken bad habits under two conditions: (a) it’s a do-or-die situation, or (b) you have a...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders Bonds...
a month ago
22
a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders Bonds were thus able to hold onto the gains from last week with some additional improvement today. The average mortgage lender wasn't eager to adjust rates, however, with the top tier...
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Decreased 0.9% in January On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.2 percent from January 2024. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs? Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500...
Citation Needed
Issue 68 – Opportunity agenda Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as...
4 months ago
63
4 months ago
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as another enters, and Stand With Crypto bets on the favorites.
Moneyness
How should money laundering laws apply to DeFi? Everyone agrees that money laundering laws apply to DeFi. The question is: how to apply them? DeFi,...
5 months ago
4
5 months ago
Everyone agrees that money laundering laws apply to DeFi. The question is: how to apply them? DeFi, or decentralized finance, is an emerging segment of the broader financial industry that delivers traditional financial services, say like trading or lending, using a novel type of...
Bits about Money
Money laundering and AML compliance A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
over a year ago
Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income? Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
a year ago
91
a year ago
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
Commoncog
Outcome Orientation as a Cure for Information Overload A simple, effective — though not easy! — technique for solving information overload. Written from...
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
2 months ago
38
2 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 13,...
Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 27.7% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. Inventory is now up 1.7% from the bottom three weeks ago. If three weeks ago was the seasonal...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The...
2 months ago
47
2 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the fourth quarter of 2024, including Euripides, The Stoic Emperor, The Intelligent Investor, The Trail, and more.
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.7% in November On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and...
2 months ago
37
2 months ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8 percent from November 2023. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Farnam Street
Learning Through Play Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind...
over a year ago
71
over a year ago
Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind leads us to find new information, better understand our own capabilities, and find unexpected beauty around us. Arithmetic is one example of an area we can explore through play....
Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a month ago
11
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-February provides a snapshot of the current housing market. tells the tale! I’m watching...
The Rational Walk
Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of...
a year ago
80
a year ago
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of the annual commitments pledged in 2006.
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway MBA Studying Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Berkshire Hathaway's history can provide a level of...
a year ago
27
a year ago
Studying Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Berkshire Hathaway's history can provide a level of fluency in business and investing rivaling a costly MBA degree.
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)...
2 weeks ago
6
2 weeks ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in January 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S....
The Rational Walk
Pilot’s Founders vs. Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett's reputation as a straight shooter is called into question by the Haslam family in a...
a year ago
27
a year ago
Warren Buffett's reputation as a straight shooter is called into question by the Haslam family in a dispute over the valuation of their remaining 20% interest.
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025 The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, January 20th ----- All US...
a month ago
30
a month ago
The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales. ----- Monday, January 20th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day "Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter." Martin Luther King Jr. ----- Tuesday,...
Citation Needed
Video: The charges against Binance In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant...
a year ago
88
a year ago
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant Binance and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, I started writing up an overview of everything that had happened to the company over the past few years. I'd written separately about a...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #216 Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement",...
5 months ago
66
5 months ago
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement", Caro's writing process, Buffett's ground rules, Sherwin Williams, Mysterious owls
Mazdak
5 Must-Read Finance Books for Building Wealth
a year ago
Calculated Risk
MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024 From the MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024...
a month ago
13
a month ago
From the MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024 Delinquency rates for mortgages backed by commercial properties increased during the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest commercial real...
Commoncog
Strong at Capital, Bad at Everything Else Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but...
a year ago
56
a year ago
Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but weak in just about everything else.
Citation Needed
Issue 47 – Residual garbage All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
a year ago
Citation Needed
AI isn't useless. But is it worth it? AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
10 months ago
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 3 This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
89
a year ago
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. The MNIST dataset is the “hello world” of machine learning, containing images of handwritten digits that are used to train machine learning models. It...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Interest Rates Since the Federal Reserve Began Cutting Rates From housing economist Tom Lawler: Click on graph for larger image. 10-Year T1PS Yield
2 months ago
Mazdak
How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie: A Summary and Key Takeaways Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential...
a year ago
85
a year ago
Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People is one of the most popular and influential self-help books ever written. First published in 1936, it has sold over 50 million copies and been translated into over 30 languages. The book is a practical guide to improving...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in November were below expectations, however, starts in September and October were revised up slightly, combined. Total...
Mazdak
The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024 The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Some Observations on the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Wind-Down and Reinvestment... From housing economist Tom Lawler: Click on table for larger image. Given the significant declines...
2 days ago
2
2 days ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Click on table for larger image. Given the significant declines in Federal Reserve holdings of Treasuries and Agency MBS since early 2022, the uninformed (such as Treasury Secretary Bessent) might conclude that the Federal Reserve has been a big...
Moneyness
Stablecoins are non-fungible, bank deposits are fungible On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive....
a month ago
5
a month ago
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive. Tether, which has four times more wallets than all other stablecoins, is locked-in as the stablecoin lingua franca, just like English has been locked-in as the global language of...
Mazdak
The Rise of Nvidia and the Fall of Intel For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its...
4 months ago
43
4 months ago
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its influence in the tech world.
Citation Needed
Issue 48 – Bitcoin has "no chance" of going to the moon Bitcoin ETF fakeouts, imaginary CEOs, and a bridge hack make for an eventful start to the new year.
a year ago
Mazdak
Google Pays $700 Million to Settle App Store Antitrust Concerns Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling...
a year ago
40
a year ago
Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling a major antitrust lawsuit brought by a coalition of states. This landmark deal marks a significant victory for developers and consumers alike, potentially paving the way for a more...
Mazdak
Finance News Roundup - Wednesday, 29th November 😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire...
a year ago
64
a year ago
😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and a close associate of Warren Buffett, has passed away at the age of 97. Munger was known for his wit, wisdom, and contrarian investment style.
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
a year ago
78
a year ago
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 6% YoY This might be something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL...
a month ago
13
a month ago
This might be something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August...
Mazdak
Trudeau's resignation, Dana White joining Meta's board, YouTube taking on TikTok, SuperIntelligence... After nearly a decade in leadership, Justin Trudeau announced his decision to step down as Prime...
2 months ago
Mazdak
YouTube’s AI Evolution: What’s Coming in 2025? YouTube is gearing up for a massive AI-driven transformation.
4 weeks ago
Musings on Markets
Dealing with Aging: Updating the Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks Stories! A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that...
6 months ago
5
6 months ago
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that the corporate life cycle can explain what happens to companies as they age, and why they  have to adapt to aging with their actions and choices. In parallel, I also noted that...
FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
11 months ago
105
11 months ago
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth From housing economist Tom Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Incorporate Revised Methodology for Estimating Net International Migration, Show...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Why We Shouldn’t “Buy the Dip” “Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the...
a year ago
3
a year ago
“Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the assumption that asset prices will quickly revert, enabling you to make money. This article explains why a government-driven culture of “buying the dip” can be damaging to you and...
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 50.9% in January (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.9%...
a month ago
11
a month ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.9% in January, up from 49.2% in December. The employment index was at 50.3%, up from 45.4% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 55.1%, up from 52.1%. Manufacturing PMI®...
Moneyness
What do you do with memecoins? Apparently you collect them, says the SEC I have no idea if memecoins like dogecoin and fartcoin should be legally defined as securities, and...
a week ago
10
a week ago
I have no idea if memecoins like dogecoin and fartcoin should be legally defined as securities, and thus come under the purview of securities regulators like the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). Securities law is confusing. But what I do know is that the SEC's latest notion...
FIRE v London
Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to...
a year ago
78
a year ago
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to check out Dorset’s Chesil beach. We struck lucky with the weather and had a fine, distinctly non-London, time, over a very blustery Easter weekend. My walking shoes seem to have...
Mazdak
Popular Business Tips That Are Actually Hurting Your Success In the age of LinkedIn influencers and business gurus, we're bombarded with seemingly wise advice...
4 months ago
30
4 months ago
In the age of LinkedIn influencers and business gurus, we're bombarded with seemingly wise advice that often does more harm than good.
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 5.5% in December; Down 5.0% Year-over-year From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Fell 5.5% in December Pending home sales retracted 5.5% in December...
a month ago
14
a month ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Fell 5.5% in December Pending home sales retracted 5.5% in December – following four consecutive months of increases – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions experienced month-over-month losses in transactions,...
Commoncog
Learning About Moats the Hard Way How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end...
9 months ago
100
9 months ago
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end of his career.
Mazdak
OpenAI’s Ph.D.-Level Super Agents The AI landscape is evolving at breakneck speed, and OpenAI is leading the charge.
a month ago
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2025: It's a small world, after all! If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one...
a month ago
9
a month ago
If the title of this post sounds familiar, it is because is one of Disney’s most iconic rides, one that I have taken hundreds of times, first with my own children and more recently, with my grandchildren. It is a mainstay of every Disney theme park, from the original Disneyland...
The Rational Walk
The Power of Investment Journals Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles...
a year ago
24
a year ago
Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles explores lessons I learned dating back to 2009.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #158 Claude Shannon's mighty mouse, Ben Graham's father, Doomberg quits Twitter, FASB segment disclosure...
a year ago
26
a year ago
Claude Shannon's mighty mouse, Ben Graham's father, Doomberg quits Twitter, FASB segment disclosure rules, Podcasts on old annual reports, Henry Ford's road trips, Jony Ive, Sal Kahn
Bits about Money
Bits about Money yearly recap and plans What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.3% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to...
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to 3.0% q/q saar. Additionally, our 4Q US GDP tracker was unchanged at 2.1% q/q saar. [Dec 13th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final...
Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always...
2 weeks ago
9
2 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.5% from the bottom six weeks ago in January. The first graph shows the seasonal...
Citation Needed
Issue 57 - I take deep breath and I get real high Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC...
10 months ago
106
10 months ago
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC is on a Wells notice bender.
Citation Needed
Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Insurance Loss Reserve Estimates The ability to accurately estimate loss reserves is a core competency for any well-run insurance...
a year ago
26
a year ago
The ability to accurately estimate loss reserves is a core competency for any well-run insurance company. Progressive provides a useful case study in loss reserving practices.
Farnam Street
Evaluating Information: Find the Signal in the Noise We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what...
over a year ago
51
over a year ago
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what matters from what doesn’t. The good news is that you can train your brain to evaluate the quality of information. Not only can you quickly determine if someone knows what they are...
Calculated Risk
The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP A brief excerpt: Two years ago, I wrote The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP. Here is an update to a couple of graphs. The bottom line...
Bits about Money
Demystifying financial leverage Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for...
over a year ago
19
over a year ago
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for financial firms.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2025: Interest Rates, Inflation and Central Banks! It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more...
a month ago
7
a month ago
It was an interesting year for interest rates in the United States, one in which we got more evidence on the limited power that central banks have to alter the trajectory of market interest rates. We started 2024 with the consensus wisdom that rates would drop during the year,...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New...
a month ago
12
a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New Week Mortgage rates have been on a vacation from volatility since January 16th when they fell back toward 7% after hitting the highest levels since May 2024. Top tier 30yr fixed rates...
Mazdak
Used Car Prices Drop: Should You Buy Now or Wait for Better Deals? The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has...
a year ago
40
a year ago
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has begun to exhibit signs of a significant shift. Prices are now decelerating, presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers. This article delves into the key factors driving...
Citation Needed
Trump’s Project 2025 ghostwriters Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked...
a month ago
19
a month ago
Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked Trump devotees are writing policies at federal agencies.
Calculated Risk
Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2% From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14....
2 weeks ago
11
2 weeks ago
From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14. Since then, our 1Q GDP tracker is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 4Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.2% q/q saar...
Commoncog
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota on Human-AI Symbiosis Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented...
a month ago
32
a month ago
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented approach to AI in real world domains.
Calculated Risk
Friday: No major economic releases scheduled Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • No...
3 months ago
27
3 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • No major economic releases scheduled.
The Rational Walk
Will Progressive’s Growth Strategy Pay Off? The auto insurer continues to add customers but posted disappointing results in the second quarter...
a year ago
20
a year ago
The auto insurer continues to add customers but posted disappointing results in the second quarter due to catastrophe losses and inadequate pricing.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 Results — Manufacturing, Service, and Retailing A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on...
a year ago
41
a year ago
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on results in Q3 2023 as well as a longer term view.
balajis.com
Too Fake to Tell US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
a year ago
FIRE v London
Becoming an ISA $millionaire This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until...
a year ago
67
a year ago
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until using my full annual ISA allowance(s), which took me much longer than usual last year. This year I actually completed my ISA topups in April, within a few weeks of the start of the...