Commoncog
Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do...
11 months ago
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do it. This is everything you need to know to actually become data driven, from scratch, using the same first principles that Amazon, Koch, and Toyota used back in their day.
The Rational Walk
The Other Side of the Trade
Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other...
7 months ago
Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other stocks to temporarily crash on June 3, 2024.
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
over a year ago
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
Mazdak
OpenAI in Turmoil: Altman and Brockman Join Microsoft, Employees Revolt
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the...
a year ago
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the non-profit research company behind groundbreaking artificial intelligence advancements, are joining Microsoft to lead a new research unit. This move comes after failed talks to reinstate...
Mazdak
Popular Business Tips That Are Actually Hurting Your Success
In the age of LinkedIn influencers and business gurus, we're bombarded with seemingly wise advice...
a month ago
In the age of LinkedIn influencers and business gurus, we're bombarded with seemingly wise advice that often does more harm than good.
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
7 months ago
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
The Rational Walk
The Limits of an Inner Scorecard
Having an "inner scorecard" can be liberating and foster independent thinking, but ultimately human...
a year ago
Having an "inner scorecard" can be liberating and foster independent thinking, but ultimately human beings must also subject themselves to the judgment of key people in their lives.
Mazdak
Subscription Overload: The Rise of Recurring Revenue
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches...
a year ago
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches onto the subscription business model. This is because businesses can make more money up-front and over time by selling subscriptions and building loyalty. They can also mine...
Musings on Markets
The Sugar Daddy Effect? Corporate venture capital, Sovereign funds and Green Energy!
It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would...
2 months ago
It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would offend some people, as sexist or worse. I briefly considering expanding the title to "Sugar Daddies and Molasses Mommies", but that just sounds awkward, or even replacing the words...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
A brief excerpt:
Total housing starts in November were below expectations, however, starts in September and October were revised up slightly, combined.
Total...
Seeking Wisdom
What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a...
7 months ago
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a plate full of french fries. It takes an enormous amount of energy to break bad habits. I’ve broken bad habits under two conditions: (a) it’s a do-or-die situation, or (b) you have a...
Mazdak
What is QSBS?
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul...
a year ago
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul into your company, and you want to see it thrive. But taxes can eat into your profits, leaving you feeling frustrated and discouraged. That's where QSBS (Qualified Small Business...
Mazdak
Buffett's $325 Billion Warning
Is the legendary investor Warren Buffett sounding the alarm on the market? Berkshire Hathaway,...
a month ago
Is the legendary investor Warren Buffett sounding the alarm on the market? Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett's company, is sitting on a record $325 billion in cash after selling off major chunks of Apple and Bank of America stock.
Mazdak
Compound Interest: A Comprehensive Guide
Compound interest is often called the "eighth wonder of the world" and for good reason.
2 months ago
Compound interest is often called the "eighth wonder of the world" and for good reason.
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
9 months ago
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked...
10 months ago
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked spectacularly well. Will Berkshire's playbook continue to perform well in the future?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #199
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's...
7 months ago
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, A long run perspective, the parent-therapy trap
Citation Needed
POSSE: Reclaiming social media in a fragmented world
A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still...
3 months ago
A simple technique offers the best of both worlds: total control over your own work, while still maintaining a presence on third-party platforms.
Mazdak
Working Out Will Change Your Life
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need...
a year ago
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need to start working out. Working out has a myriad of benefits that can improve your life in many ways. Here are just a few of the ways that working out can change your life:
The Rational Walk
There’s Always a Reason
Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an...
a year ago
Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an important option for customers chronically short on cash.
Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
12 months ago
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
Citation Needed
Issue 60 – Raging in favor of the machine
The crypto industry jumps on the Trump train.
6 months ago
The crypto industry jumps on the Trump train.
balajis.com
The Network State Book
A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder...
over a year ago
A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder on Amazon.
Commoncog
Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts
Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
9 months ago
Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
The Rational Walk
In the Zone
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to...
8 months ago
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to provide valuable insights about our health.
Commoncog
Businesses as Ecosystem Organisms
What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd...
3 months ago
What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd example of HEICO being the barnacle to TransDigm’s whale.
Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
a year ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Mostly Unchanged in November
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:
Construction spending...
21 hours ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:
Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November...
Musings on Markets
Dealing with Aging: Updating the Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks Stories!
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that...
3 months ago
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that the corporate life cycle can explain what happens to companies as they age, and why they have to adapt to aging with their actions and choices. In parallel, I also noted that...
Bits about Money
The infrastructure behind ATMs
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
over a year ago
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
FIRE v London
The richest person you know
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are...
a year ago
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are among the highest earning and/or richest people in the UK. I bet however that not many of you feel that way. Let’s start with income To be in the top 1% of earnings in… Continue...
Commoncog
The Limits of Operational Excellence
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven,...
8 months ago
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven, achieve operational excellence, and die, and others acquire Process Power and win?
Farnam Street
Language: Why We Hear More Than Words
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me...
over a year ago
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me forgetting her birthday! Then why is she throwing dishes in the kitchen? Are the two things related? I wish I had a translator for my spouse. What is going on?” The answer: Extreme...
Citation Needed
Privacy, human rights, and Tornado Cash
I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
7 months ago
I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
Commoncog
Renaming the Business Expertise Triad
Renaming the business expertise triad from Supply/Demand/Capital to the simpler ...
a year ago
Renaming the business expertise triad from Supply/Demand/Capital to the simpler Operations/Market/Capital.
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of
22,000 from the...
2 weeks ago
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of
22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,500, an increase of
1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 224,250.
emphasis added
The...
Seeking Wisdom
Focus on the process, not the outcome
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket...
4 months ago
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket team, has two non-negotiables. As an offspinner, you must never get cut, and you must never get driven through the covers. Even when Ravichandran Ashwin takes five wickets, Raman will...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "Home ATM" Mostly Closed
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Part 1:...
2 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
2nd...
Moneyness
It's time to trash the "store of value" function of money
When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that...
2 weeks ago
When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that money has three functions: medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value. Maybe it’s time for educators to throw out this triumvirate. It’s not very accurate.
We need a...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
2 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 December. ...
Occupancy: 59.0% (+0.5%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal...
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
Bits about Money
BAM is now reader-supported
Bits about Money now offers paid memberships. (Plus, a bonus essay on newsletter financial...
a year ago
Bits about Money now offers paid memberships. (Plus, a bonus essay on newsletter financial infrastructure.)
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in...
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home...
6 days ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Construction Spending
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates...
yesterday
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday).
mortgage purchase applications index.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 223...
Moneyness
Bitcoin as a tool of U.S. economic statecraft
Riot Platform's Rockdale, Texas facility, North America’s largest Bitcoin mining farm by developed...
5 months ago
Riot Platform's Rockdale, Texas facility, North America’s largest Bitcoin mining farm by developed capacity [source]
Can a network that has been marketed as being resistant to government power be harnessed by the U.S. administrative state in order to attain its foreign policy...
The Rational Walk
A Seamless Web of Deserved Trust
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
a year ago
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
Calculated Risk
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up...
a week ago
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough). I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
FOMC...
2 weeks ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
FOMC Statement:
lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the...
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights!
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
2 months ago
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
Mazdak
RRSP Guide for New Immigrants to Canada: Everything You Need to Know
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the...
a month ago
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP).
FIRE v London
May ’24: UK election called
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
6 months ago
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...
The Diff
Just Another Risk Asset
Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
3 weeks ago
Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
Mazdak
The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real...
10 months ago
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real estate in Canada. It's important to note that this strategy is generally more complex and may not be suitable for everyone. When Owning Real Estate Personally Might Be Better
The Rational Walk
The Digest #168
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's...
a year ago
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's IPO, Costco's clothing, Todd Combs interview, Equifax, and more ...
Musings on Markets
Catastrophic Risk: Investing and Business Implications
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers...
10 months ago
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers on companies that I should value next. While I don't have the time or the bandwidth to value all of the suggested companies, a reader from Iceland, a couple of weeks ago, made a...
Mazdak
The Big News: ChatGPT Pays Up for Content, Ushering in a New Era for Media & AI
Get ready for a paradigm shift, folks! News just dropped that OpenAI, the brains behind ChatGPT, has...
a year ago
Get ready for a paradigm shift, folks! News just dropped that OpenAI, the brains behind ChatGPT, has signed a multi-year licensing deal with Axel Springer, the media giant behind Politico and Business Insider. This isn't just any deal, it's a game-changer
Moneyness
Top 13 blog posts
I've been writing on this blog for a while now – over ten years. Many of those posts are now...
a year ago
I've been writing on this blog for a while now – over ten years. Many of those posts are now forgotten (by myself included), but some were pretty popular at the time, and a few still get a steady stream of readers. Someone recently asked me for a list of my top ranked posts...
Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦)
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
11 months ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
balajis.com
#3 - The President of Palau
Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is...
a year ago
Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is becoming a digital leader, experimenting with everything from on-chain identity to drone delivery. Despite having less than 20,000 citizens, Palau is a full UN member state. Its path to...
The Rational Walk
Just Hold the Goddamn Stock!
Charlie Munger's solution to estate planning at Berkshire was simple: Just Hold the Goddamn Stock!...
3 months ago
Charlie Munger's solution to estate planning at Berkshire was simple: Just Hold the Goddamn Stock! Unfortunately, his advice is not easy to follow.
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
19 hours ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year
A brief excerpt:
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.56% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 6 for 2023: A Wake up call for the Indebted?
We have an uneasy relationship with debt, both in our personal and business lives. While it is a...
a year ago
We have an uneasy relationship with debt, both in our personal and business lives. While it is a financial decision, it is one that is freighted with moral overtones, since almost every religion inveighs against debt's sins, labeling those who lend as sinners and those who borrow...
Moneyness
AML works, even if it intercepts less than 1% of criminal proceeds. Here's how
Critics of anti-money laundering (AML) often point to the fact that just a tiny fraction of 1% of...
a year ago
Critics of anti-money laundering (AML) often point to the fact that just a tiny fraction of 1% of criminal proceeds are seized every year, their point being that AML is not working. Either update our approach to AML, they say, or just throw in the towel and legalize money...
The Rational Walk
The Year in Review
Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
a year ago
Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
The Rational Walk
Endurance
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived...
11 months ago
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived shipwreck, ice floes, and constant danger.
Citation Needed
New York Times: Crypto's fragile foundations
My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency...
a year ago
My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency industry that can lead to death spirals like the one at FTX.
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence is FINALLY HERE! 🤯 What You NEED to Know! 🧠
Join us as we explore Apple's groundbreaking AI platform:
2 months ago
Join us as we explore Apple's groundbreaking AI platform:
Mazdak
Canadian Real Estate Market Predictions for 2024
As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for...
a year ago
As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for investors. While the explosive growth of recent years is likely to abate, a multitude of factors will continue to shape the market's trajectory. Understanding these factors is crucial for...
The Rational Walk
Biden’s Withdrawal and the Limits of Gaslighting
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the...
5 months ago
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the Democratic Party and allies in the mainstream media.
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal: The Canary in the Coal Mine?
Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence....
7 months ago
Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence. Recent development at Daily Journal raise concerns.
Mazdak
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds : The Great Investment Debate
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual...
8 months ago
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds can be a head-scratcher. Both offer diversification, professional management options, and access to a variety of asset classes. However, they differ significantly in how they...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2023: The Earnings Test
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to...
a year ago
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside. During the course of the year, investors also...
Mazdak
The Rise of Nvidia and the Fall of Intel
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its...
2 months ago
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its influence in the tech world.
Mazdak
Can Quantum Break Crypto? Trump to Rescue TikTok? Tech in Defence ...
Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
a week ago
Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
Commoncog
Making Sense of Deming
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of...
9 months ago
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of the most powerful things you'll find on the Operations side of the business expertise triad. Read this, so you don't have to read multiple books to apply his ideas.
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November
Brief excerpt:
The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. The previous three months were...
Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
6 months ago
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
Commoncog
What Process Improvement in Education Looks Like
What rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
3 months ago
What rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should be able to do this in your own org contexts.
Mazdak
Canadian Mortgage Debt Growth Slows to Two-Decade Low, But Remains Elevated
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to...
a year ago
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to data from the Bank of Canada (BoC). However, mortgage debt growth remains historically high, despite the recent slowdown. The BoC's latest data shows that outstanding mortgage...
Citation Needed
Issue 47 – Residual garbage
All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
a year ago
All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
Moneyness
A glass half-full take on Caucasus sanctions evasion
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being...
3 months ago
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being carried out through the Caucasus. He visits the Lars border crossing between Georgia and Russia to document how smugglers are openly moving British and German luxury cars into Russia, in...
The Rational Walk
Measuring Competence
Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as...
3 months ago
Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as clear when it comes to investing.
Mazdak
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
a year ago
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
The Rational Walk
Two Sides of the Same Coin
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the...
11 months ago
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the longer it will take to achieve financial independence.
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
a year ago
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
Commoncog
The Disaffected PhD Skunkworks: A Story About Process Improvement
A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service...
over a year ago
A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service at Amazon.
Mazdak
Tech Titans: AI Race Heats Up!
We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial...
2 months ago
We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial intelligence.
Musings on Markets
Disagreements and First Principles: The Pushback on my Tesla Valuation
I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago, and as has always been the...
a year ago
I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago, and as has always been the case when I value this company, I have heard from both sides of the Tesla divide. Some of you believe that I am being far too generous in my forecasts of revenues and profitability...
Mazdak
Block, TikTok & Beyond
From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping...
a month ago
From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping our digital world.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Meeting
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage purchase applications index.
Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.344 million SAAR, up from 1.311 million SAAR.
Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP, Existing Home Sales
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 232 thousand initial claims, down from 242 thousand last week.
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (Third...
Citation Needed
Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x"
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
11 months ago
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
The Rational Walk
Three Lessons
A few life lessons based on observations over a half century.
a year ago
A few life lessons based on observations over a half century.
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
10 months ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
Mazdak
Elon Musk Lashes Out at Advertisers Leaving X
⚡️ Musk's Fiery Response to Advertiser Exodus 💥 "Go Fk Yourself," Musk Says to Advertisers** 🚀 X...
a year ago
⚡️ Musk's Fiery Response to Advertiser Exodus 💥 "Go Fk Yourself," Musk Says to Advertisers** 🚀 X CEO Defiant Amidst Advertising Boycott In a fiery exchange at the 2023 DealBook Summit in New York, Elon Musk unleashed a barrage of profanity at advertisers who have pulled their...
Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI)
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
10 months ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
The Diff
Initiations
Plus! Alternative Data; Size and Momentum; The Full Audience; Same-Day
3 weeks ago
Plus! Alternative Data; Size and Momentum; The Full Audience; Same-Day
Moneyness
A back-of-the-envelope estimate of the size of the US crypto ETF market
I'm hearing all sorts of silly projections about how big the U.S. market for a physical crypto ETFs...
a year ago
I'm hearing all sorts of silly projections about how big the U.S. market for a physical crypto ETFs will be, and how their eventual approval will drive new bitcoin demand and pump its price into the stratosphere.
To date, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has refused...
Commoncog
The Idea Maze is a Useless Idea
Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business...
4 months ago
Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business idea.
Mazdak
The Future of Healthcare: Your AI Health Pod is Here! 🩺
Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and...
a year ago
Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and hello to the CarePod, your self-contained doctor's office powered by artificial intelligence. Imagine: Stepping into a futuristic pod at your local mall, gym, or even office...
Musings on Markets
The School Bell Rings: Time for Class!
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting...
11 months ago
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting in a couple of weeks, I would like to invite you, if you are interested, to come along for the ride. I know! I know! Most of you are not enrolled at NYU, paying nosebleed prices,...
Mazdak
Tesla's Trump Card: How a Presidency Could Fuel a Trillion-Dollar Boom
What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
a month ago
What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
Mazdak
2024: The Year the Economy Wins?
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a...
a year ago
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a potential shift towards a more balanced and stable environment. While challenges and uncertainties remain, let's explore the key trends and strategic insights that can guide us...
Moneyness
Who are the money launderers in the Tornado Cash stack?
Over the last few years I've written a bunch of posts about Tornado Cash, an Ethereum-based mixing...
a year ago
Over the last few years I've written a bunch of posts about Tornado Cash, an Ethereum-based mixing service, because I find it to be a fascinating tool. With the recent indictment of two people involved in the Tornado Cash "stack" for money laundering, here's another post to add...
Citation Needed
Issue 58 – Threats to the stability and integrity of Ethereum
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's...
7 months ago
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's creditors, and Biden threatens a crypto veto.
Mazdak
Twitter vs. Instagram Threads: The Battle for the Short-Form Social Media Crown
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both...
a year ago
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both offer users a way to share short-form content, but they have different approaches to how that content is displayed and consumed. Twitter is a more public platform, where anyone can...
FIRE v London
May ’23: Magic megatech
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
a year ago
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
Bits about Money
BAM's Early Adopter discount ends soon
Bits about Money's Early Adopter discount ends on January 31st, 2023.
a year ago
Bits about Money's Early Adopter discount ends on January 31st, 2023.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 2
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts...
a year ago
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts before reading this one. When using linear and logistic regression, which involve just a single linear equation, calculating derivatives is easy since there is only one equation...
Mazdak
Commercial vs. Residential Real Estate: Which One Is Right for You?
Investing in real estate can be a great way to build wealth and generate passive income. But which...
a year ago
Investing in real estate can be a great way to build wealth and generate passive income. But which type of real estate is right for you? Commercial or residential? In this blog post, we will compare and contrast commercial and residential real estate, and help you decide which...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #207
Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed...
5 months ago
Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed memories, Lost knowledge, Todd Combs, Walter Schloss, Bob Noyce, Nietzsche, Lincoln
FIRE v London
August ’24: From triumph to tragedy
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are...
3 months ago
Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be. In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist /...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 — Overview
A high level overview of third quarter results and year-to-date repurchase activity.
a year ago
A high level overview of third quarter results and year-to-date repurchase activity.
Calculated Risk
FOMC Projections
Statement here.
press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM...
2 weeks ago
Statement here.
press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
projections. Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and inflation close to expectations (although...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Kotkin, Luttwak, Poker, DRW, PCs, Statistics, AI, Hamilton
2 weeks ago
Kotkin, Luttwak, Poker, DRW, PCs, Statistics, AI, Hamilton
Moneyness
Why bitcoiners should learn to accept bitcoin's ponzi nature as a good thing
When I describe bitcoin as a type of ponzi or pyramid, idealistic bitcoiners usually view this as an...
a year ago
When I describe bitcoin as a type of ponzi or pyramid, idealistic bitcoiners usually view this as an attack on the nobility of the bitcoin project. But they shouldn't. Bitcoin's ponzi nature is one of its greatest strength.
Imagine that you are trying to bootstrap an unorthodox...
Commoncog
Focus on the Cases
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than...
over a year ago
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than synthesised business concepts.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #211
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist...
4 months ago
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist investing, Perils of forecasting, Orwell's 1984, Guy Spier, Ben Thompson, Estée Lauder
The Rational Walk
New Articles Moving to Newsletter
Effective today, I will no longer post new articles to this website, rationalwalk.com. All new...
a year ago
Effective today, I will no longer post new articles to this website, rationalwalk.com. All new articles will be posted on my Substack at newsletter.rationalwalk.com.
Musings on Markets
A Return to Teaching: The Spring 2023 Edition
If, as you read this post, it feels like you have read it or a close variant before, it is because...
over a year ago
If, as you read this post, it feels like you have read it or a close variant before, it is because you have. Each year, ahead of teaching my classes at NYU's Stern School of Business in the spring, I invite readers to accompany me on my journey, and this year is no different....
The Rational Walk
Pilot’s Founders vs. Berkshire Hathaway
Warren Buffett's reputation as a straight shooter is called into question by the Haslam family in a...
a year ago
Warren Buffett's reputation as a straight shooter is called into question by the Haslam family in a dispute over the valuation of their remaining 20% interest.
Moneyness
Elon Musk's understanding of payments dates back to his PayPal days. It needs an update
[This is a republication of my most recent CoinDesk opinion piece.]
You've
heard the script...
a year ago
[This is a republication of my most recent CoinDesk opinion piece.]
You've
heard the script before. Migrants need to make payments back home to
their family, but cross-border payments are achingly slow, taking days
to process. Luckily, revolutionary new technologies like...
Musings on Markets
Just do it! Brand Name Lessons from Nike'sTroubles!
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon...
3 months ago
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon University track team built one of the great shoe companies in the world, in Nike. In addition to its entertainment value, and it is a fun book to read, I read it for two...
Mazdak
2024 Tax Changes in Canada: A Detailed Guide for Canadians 💰🇨🇦
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year,...
a year ago
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year, adjustments and updates across various areas present both opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. Let's explore the key changes and consider their potential ramifications.
Commoncog
The Dangers of Expansion
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and...
4 months ago
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and everyone really only learns this through pain.
Mazdak
The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large....
9 months ago
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large. Enter the 4% rule, a popular guideline that suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and adjust for inflation thereafter. But is it a guaranteed...
Musings on Markets
A Zomato 2022 Update: Value, Pricing and the Gap
On July 21, 2021, I valued Zomato just ahead of its initial public offering at about ₹41 per share....
over a year ago
On July 21, 2021, I valued Zomato just ahead of its initial public offering at about ₹41 per share. The market clearly had a very different view, as the stock premiered at ₹74 per share and soared into the stratosphere, peaking at ₹169 per share in late 2021. The last few months...
Musings on Markets
The Power of Expectations: Nvidia's Earnings and the Market Reaction!
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled...
3 months ago
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled for after the market closed. That call, at first sight, contained exceptionally good news, with revenues and earnings coming in at stratospheric levels, and above expectations,...
Mazdak
How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their...
a year ago
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their tax liabilities. One such method, known as transfer pricing, has become increasingly prevalent in recent years, raising concerns about fairness and equity in the global tax...
The Diff
In Credit Underwriting, Better is Worse
Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
21 hours ago
Plus! IRR; Structure; Financial Epiphytes; Shale; Weakening the Cartel
Mazdak
The Growth Rocket Fuel of Low Gross Margin Businesses
When most people think of successful businesses, they think of businesses with high gross margins....
a year ago
When most people think of successful businesses, they think of businesses with high gross margins. After all, a high gross margin means that a business is making a lot of money on each sale. However, there are a number of successful businesses that have low gross margins. These...
Mazdak
The Dangers of AI "Answers"
From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring...
4 weeks ago
From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring the lines between fact and fiction.
Farnam Street
Focus to Win
Anyone can say no to bad ideas, but only a focused person can say no to good ideas. Focus is about...
over a year ago
Anyone can say no to bad ideas, but only a focused person can say no to good ideas. Focus is about saying no. When talking about one of the biggest lessons he learned from Steve Jobs, Jonny Ive said it was focus. This sounds really simplistic, but it still shocks me how few...
Bits about Money
Demystifying financial leverage
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for...
over a year ago
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for financial firms.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #209
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
4 months ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
Mazdak
Google: Monopolized?
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little...
a month ago
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little competition.
balajis.com
Going Meta
Meta may be Android to Apple's Apple.
a year ago
Meta may be Android to Apple's Apple.
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance)
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
6 months ago
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
Citation Needed
Issue 43 – Laser eyes
Two crypto firms emerge from bankruptcy, and a Bored Ape party turns out even worse than it sounds.
a year ago
Two crypto firms emerge from bankruptcy, and a Bored Ape party turns out even worse than it sounds.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #193
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect...
9 months ago
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect on the brain, Race and cardiovascular disease, Inflation's effect on insurance pricing
The Rational Walk
Roth IRA Conversions For Early Retirees
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and...
2 months ago
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and avoid falling into a high tax bracket.
The Diff
That Top-of-Cycle Feeling
Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
2 weeks ago
Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
Moneyness
Thoughts on Privacy Pools and the law
Here's my quick first-pass take on Privacy Pools, the heir apparent to privacy tool Tornado Cash. My...
a year ago
Here's my quick first-pass take on Privacy Pools, the heir apparent to privacy tool Tornado Cash. My comments are on the legal side, and less so the technical side, although the two aren't mutually exclusive.
I've already written a bunch of times about Tornado Cash on this blog....
The Rational Walk
GEICO Prioritizes Profits Over Market Share
Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price...
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price of ceding market share that will be costly to regain in the future.
The Diff
How High Does AI's Revenue Per User Get?
Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't...
3 weeks ago
Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't Scale Yet; Complete Markets; Legitimacy and Growth
Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
a year ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase...
2 weeks ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase Since June 2021
Existing-home sales grew in November, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and remained steady in the...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications...
2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from
one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending December 13,...
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
The Rational Walk
The Iliad
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
9 months ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #183
Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing,...
a year ago
Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing, Rivian, AI's morality, AI bubble?, How James Longstreet defied the South after the war
Moneyness
It's time to impose Iran-calibre sanctions on Russia
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long...
12 months ago
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long list of sanctions that the G7 coalition has placed on Russia in response to its attack on Ukraine are surprisingly light compared to the fewer but far more-draconian sanctions...
Moneyness
Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new...
a month ago
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new and very strange policy.
All Finns were required to take out a pair of scissors and snip their banknotes in half. This was known in Finland as setelinleikkaus, or banknote cutting....
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.2% in November; Up 6.9% Year-over-year
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of...
4 days ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of Increases
Pending home sales gained 2.2% in November – the fourth consecutive month of increases and the highest level since February 2023 – according to the National Association of REALTORS®....
Mazdak
Big Tech Donating to Trump's Inaugural Fund, Teens' Online Habits, More Tech Updates
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on...
3 weeks ago
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on Prime Video 😀
Bits about Money
Requiem for a bank loan
A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse...
a year ago
A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse on the banking crisis.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #219
Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam...
2 months ago
Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam Zell, UK Bargains, Gregorys Coffee, Free Speech Under Assault, Dopamine and Addiction
Mazdak
Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and...
a year ago
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and diversify your portfolio. However, it's important to do your research and take the necessary steps to ensure a successful transition. Here are some practical tips for entrepreneurs...
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?)
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
3 weeks ago
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
The Rational Walk
Inflation Expectations
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers...
9 months ago
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers should pay close attention to Warren Buffett's statements and actions.
Mazdak
Top 10 Finance News Headlines for Thursday, November 30th, 2023 📈📰
📈 Stocks Soar: The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 500 points on Thursday, closing at...
a year ago
📈 Stocks Soar: The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 500 points on Thursday, closing at its highest level of the year. The rally was fueled by optimism about the economy and a slowdown in inflation. 🚀 💼 Peltz Takes Aim at Disney: Activist investor Nelson Peltz is...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Personal Income...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the PCE price index to increase 0.2%, and...
Calculated Risk
Friday: ISM Mfg, Vehicle Sales
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates...
12 hours ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday).
ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.3, down from 48.4 in November.
Light vehicle sales for...
Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales tomorrow, Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Q&A Session
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual...
8 months ago
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual meeting after Charlie Munger's death.
balajis.com
The Network School
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
4 months ago
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #215
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking...
3 months ago
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking Kamala Harris, Weaponizing political anger, Nick Sleep's letters, Howard Marks on risk
The Rational Walk
Too Clever by Half!
The temptation to trade in the stock market can be overwhelming, especially when prices are moving...
10 months ago
The temptation to trade in the stock market can be overwhelming, especially when prices are moving quickly. It's useful to ask, "What would Charlie Munger say?"
Calculated Risk
Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
3 days ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
7 months ago
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
Mazdak
Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and...
11 months ago
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and battling for the last box of Oreos. The retail giant is about to revolutionize your shopping experience with a generative AI makeover. Imagine this: You're planning a Super Bowl bash,...
Mazdak
Anthropic's AI Breakthrough & Boeing's Q3 Disaster
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases...
2 months ago
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases mind-blowing new capabilities.
Commoncog
Capital Allocation as an Antidote to Business Luck
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a...
a year ago
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a business outcome. Capital allocation matters because it allows you more skill, less luck, on the journey to a large outcome.
Bits about Money
Money laundering and AML compliance
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
a year ago
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
Mazdak
Decentralization Debate: Unpacking Bluesky's Architecture
Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it...
a month ago
Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it truly lives up to the hype.
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023!
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
10 months ago
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 2023 Results
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices,...
a year ago
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices, Clayton Homes, Apple, and share repurchases.
FIRE v London
Sep ’24: Ominous politics, juicy economics
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the...
2 months ago
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the Solent. I made it to the Labour party conference in Liverpool, which was fascinating albeit wet. I am apparently firmly in the tax-raising sights of the Government, but I wasn’t the...
Moneyness
Pricing the anonymity of banknotes
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a
standard set of payments...
a month ago
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a
standard set of payments services, they also offer financial anonymity.
This post introduces the idea of trying to price the anonymity
component.
To help think about why we might want to price anonymous...
Commoncog
Charlie Munger’s Supply Demand Curve Puzzle
What a puzzle from Charlie Munger tells us about a supply-side business model with unreasonably high...
a year ago
What a puzzle from Charlie Munger tells us about a supply-side business model with unreasonably high returns.
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.3% in November; Spending increased 0.4%
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:
Personal income increased...
a week ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:
Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal...
Mazdak
How Big Tech Could Lose Everything to Appease Trump
In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald...
2 months ago
In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald Trump, a man who has openly attacked these companies, return to power.
Mazdak
RRSP vs TFSA: Making the Right Choice for Your Financial Future
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful...
2 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful investment vehicles available to Canadians.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #184
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing,...
11 months ago
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing, Damodaran's 2024 data update, Michael Ovitz, Live Oak, Red Bull, Capital allocation
Commoncog
Building a Valuable Business? It's How You Spend It That Matters
The skill of capital allocation — a mysterious, under-discussed element of remarkable business...
a year ago
The skill of capital allocation — a mysterious, under-discussed element of remarkable business performance.
balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
11 months ago
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
Calculated Risk
Monday: Pending Home Sales
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for...
4 days ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December.
Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index.
Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last of regional...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #169
Apple Watch, Musical Chairs at Dollar General, IPOs, Impact Investing, Buffett in 1988, Mapping the...
a year ago
Apple Watch, Musical Chairs at Dollar General, IPOs, Impact Investing, Buffett in 1988, Mapping the human brain, Interviews of Nassim Taleb, Jensen Huang, John and Patrick Collison, and more ...
The Rational Walk
The Limits of the 25th Amendment
The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe...
6 months ago
The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe limits that should be acknowledged.
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
10 months ago
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
a year ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #156
Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century...
a year ago
Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century anarchy, Buffett and Japan, Claude Hopkins, Benjamin Franklin
Citation Needed
Issue 46 – Checkmate, crypto
Cheating chess-players, cursed mansions, and more defi centralization.
a year ago
Cheating chess-players, cursed mansions, and more defi centralization.
Citation Needed
We need to talk about digital ownership
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually...
10 months ago
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually want.
Citation Needed
"The Monkey Fraud": An interview with Ryder Ripps
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club...
9 months ago
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club trademark infringement and racism.
Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
over a year ago
Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or not?
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 23rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.2% Week-over-week, Up 26.3% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week. Inventory is now...
a week ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week. Inventory is now 9.7% below the peak for the year (9 weeks ago).
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in January or February.
The first graph...
Mazdak
In the AI Race: Embrace Commoditization, Focus on Customer Value
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for...
a year ago
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for attention and a slice of the market pie. In this competitive environment, it's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of proprietary components and cutting-edge algorithms,...
Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
6 months ago
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
Commoncog
Data is an Added Sense
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in...
4 months ago
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in business.
Citation Needed
Issue 55 – Halving a bad time
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed...
8 months ago
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed fraud and Uniswap got a Wells notice.
FIRE v London
Oct ’24: Budgets & broad shoulders
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK...
2 months ago
I haven’t seen much of London in October. I’ve been away every weekend in October, partly in the UK and partly visiting friends overseas. And now we’re in November, the clocks have gone back, but temperatures haven’t plummeted yet. London feels busy – pubs still have crowds...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests
Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and...
3 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and now is the sole owner of the energy company.
The Diff
Social Media as a Test of Human-in-the-Loop Generative AI
Plus! Holdcos; Cash and Control; War Economies; In-Kind Dividends; Currency
3 weeks ago
Plus! Holdcos; Cash and Control; War Economies; In-Kind Dividends; Currency
FIRE v London
In praise of Berkshire Hathaway
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the...
11 months ago
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the year 2000. I loved the story. Starting from, as the story was told back then, humble beginnings and a paper round, Warren Buffett (and Charlie – who I will stop mentioning but...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2023: Inflation and Interest Rates
If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more...
a year ago
If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. The US treasury market, considered by some still as a safe haven, was anything but safe or a haven, especially at the long maturities, as long...
Musings on Markets
Tesla in 2023: A Return to Reality, The Start of the End or Time to Buy?
I am not much of a car person and view cars primarily as a mode of transportation. I drive a 2010...
a year ago
I am not much of a car person and view cars primarily as a mode of transportation. I drive a 2010 Honda Civic, a perfectly serviceable vehicle that is never going to get oohs and ahas from onlookers, but I feel no urge to value Honda. I don't own a Tesla, and have only driven...
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
9 months ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual...
2 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in...
FIRE v London
Mayday for IBKR margin lending
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No...
a year ago
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No longer. If you’ve read my other posts (like this or this or this) on margin lending, and are interested in exploring further, make you read this post before you do. Why I used to like...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
11 months ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
a year ago
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
10 months ago
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
Moneyness
The first round of U.S. secondary sanctions on Russia is working
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing...
10 months ago
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing payments for a narrow range of products that are on a so-called "green list," reports Ragip Soylu. This broad debanking of Russia by Turkey is part of the fallout from President...
Mazdak
Canada's Retail Pulse: Holiday Shopping Season Navigates Mixed Signals
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday...
a year ago
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday season. While October saw a surprising 0.7% increase in retail sales, exceeding economist expectations, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend in the face of rising...
Mazdak
Google's AI Search Tool: A Traffic Nightmare for Publishers?
AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
a year ago
AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
Mazdak
The 7 Steps to Becoming a Top Investor
Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going...
a year ago
Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going to share with you the seven steps that I believe are essential for becoming a top investor. Step 1: Develop a Clear Investment Philosophy The first step to becoming a great...
Citation Needed
Issue 71 – (Crypto) banks are not your friends
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech...
4 weeks ago
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech billionaires complain about “debanking”.
Mazdak
The Psychology of Investing: 5 Critical Traps That Can Destroy Your Wealth
The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising...
a month ago
The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising portfolios into cautionary tales.
The Rational Walk
Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of...
a year ago
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of the annual commitments pledged in 2006.
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November
The Mortgage...
a week ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.50% as of November 30, 2024. According to MBA’s...
Mazdak
Today's Top Tech News - Amazon's Discount Store
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
a month ago
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
The Rational Walk
Apple’s Dystopian iPad Video
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision...
7 months ago
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision crushing symbols of art and culture.
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on Learning
I was learning how to program during the mid to late 90s. Finding learning material in a world...
a year ago
I was learning how to program during the mid to late 90s. Finding learning material in a world without the Internet, Google, and YouTube was incredibly challenging. I struggled to understand how pointers in C worked. Yashavant Kanetkar’s Understanding Pointers in C book helped me...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #217
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The...
3 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The Fed's Inflationary Bias, Jimmy Carter at 100, Sam Altman, Bruno Leoni, Thermopylae
The Rational Walk
Concentrated Investments
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the...
a year ago
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the company. What are the risks of concentrated investments in general and Berkshire in particular?
FIRE v London
My 20 year property returns
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But...
a year ago
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But my net worth includes an important asset class – property – that I don’t normally track, but which I have held in some form for over 20 years. So, this post takes a look at how my…...
Citation Needed
The stones left unturned in the Sam Bankman-Fried trial
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many...
a year ago
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many questions remain about what happened at Bankman-Fried's crypto empire.
The Rational Walk
A Mind at Play
Claude Shannon is most famous for his groundbreaking work related to information theory, one of many...
a year ago
Claude Shannon is most famous for his groundbreaking work related to information theory, one of many subjects discussed in his fascinating biography.
Citation Needed
Issue 48 – Bitcoin has "no chance" of going to the moon
Bitcoin ETF fakeouts, imaginary CEOs, and a bridge hack make for an eventful start to the new year.
11 months ago
Bitcoin ETF fakeouts, imaginary CEOs, and a bridge hack make for an eventful start to the new year.
The Rational Walk
Insurance Loss Reserve Estimates
The ability to accurately estimate loss reserves is a core competency for any well-run insurance...
a year ago
The ability to accurately estimate loss reserves is a core competency for any well-run insurance company. Progressive provides a useful case study in loss reserving practices.
Commoncog
Putting Amazon’s PR/FAQ to Practice
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company...
over a year ago
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company context, and what was surprising and difficult about it.
balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
6 months ago
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
6 months ago
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
balajis.com
The Men's Party
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
11 months ago
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
The Diff
The Nvidia Way is the Regular Way, Just Faster
Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese...
a week ago
Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese Characteristics
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2023 Results — Overview
This article provides a 30,000 foot overview of Berkshire Hathaway's results for 2023 with a focus...
10 months ago
This article provides a 30,000 foot overview of Berkshire Hathaway's results for 2023 with a focus on the components net operating earnings.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2023: Setting the table!
In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each...
a year ago
In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the first of a series of posts that I make at the start of each year, where I look at data, both macro and company-level. In this post, I...
Mazdak
AI Gone Wrong? Can Chatbots Be Held Responsible for Suicide?
This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and...
2 months ago
This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and later died by suicide.
Commoncog
Cultural Advantage is Counter Positioning
Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be...
over a year ago
Competitive advantages in business that come from cultural differences tend to be counter-positioning, not process power. Why this is surprising, and why it matters.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Canvas
Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs...
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs of putting down his paintbrush anytime soon.
Calculated Risk
Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase...
a week ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
balajis.com
Decentralizing Education with Synthesis
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
over a year ago
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 3
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. The MNIST dataset is the “hello world” of machine learning, containing images of handwritten digits that are used to train machine learning models. It...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #163
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's...
a year ago
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's future, Nvidia, AI, Interpreting medical studies, Why Doomberg left Twitter, Jimmy Buffett, and more...
Commoncog
Business Reality Without Frameworks
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s...
2 months ago
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s come before.
Musings on Markets
Breaking up Big Tech: Cui Bono?
In a court filing on October 9, 2024, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) let it be known that it was...
2 months ago
In a court filing on October 9, 2024, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) let it be known that it was considering a break-up of Alphabet, with the addendum that it would also be pushing for the company to share the data it collects across its multiple platforms with competitors....
Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
2 months ago
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.7% in November
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and...
2 weeks ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8 percent from November 2023.
report:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #195
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
9 months ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
Commoncog
The 2022 Commoncog Recap
This was the final newsletter edition sent out to subscribers at the end of 2022. A recap of...
over a year ago
This was the final newsletter edition sent out to subscribers at the end of 2022. A recap of Commoncog's best ideas, and a preview of several upcoming experiments.
Citation Needed
Issue 45 – I'm the director now
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker...
a year ago
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker decides to manifest a new job for themselves.
balajis.com
The Network State Conference
Come to Amsterdam on October 30 to build the parallel establishment.
a year ago
Come to Amsterdam on October 30 to build the parallel establishment.
Mazdak
Meta's AI & Reuters: A New Era of News?
Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading...
2 months ago
Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading global news provider, to bring real-time news updates directly to users through Meta's AI chatbot.
balajis.com
The Balaji Newsletter
A single place for all updates at balajis.com
a year ago
A single place for all updates at balajis.com
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 2
Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto...
a year ago
Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto insurance business as well as nearly bankrupting GEICO.
The Rational Walk
Stepping into the River
Just like no man steps into the same river twice, reading a worthwhile book multiple times continues...
2 months ago
Just like no man steps into the same river twice, reading a worthwhile book multiple times continues to yield new insights over the years.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #205
Books I read in Q2, Buffett's estate plan, The magic of compounding, How to read a book, Portfolio...
6 months ago
Books I read in Q2, Buffett's estate plan, The magic of compounding, How to read a book, Portfolio rebalancing, Ben Graham in 1955, Sam Walton, LBJ, Robert Moses, The origins of language
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Questions
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five...
8 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five potential questions for the Q&A session.
Mazdak
Regulating Crypto
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end...
a month ago
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end for crypto, or a necessary step towards mainstream adoption?
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.4% YoY
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
2 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to...
balajis.com
#5 - India's Largest Exit
Listen now (161 min) | The $16B acquisition of Flipkart was the largest in Indian tech history....
a year ago
Listen now (161 min) | The $16B acquisition of Flipkart was the largest in Indian tech history. Balaji speaks with Flipkart founder/CEO Binny Bansal on how he built the company from scratch when Indian startups weren't even a thing — and how Flipkart's rise parallels the rise of...
Commoncog
Commoncog's Next Phase
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains...
a year ago
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains series free, and one more thing.
Musings on Markets
META Lesson 2: Accounting Inconsistencies and Consequences
In my last post, I used Facebook's recent troubles to talk about the importance of corporate...
over a year ago
In my last post, I used Facebook's recent troubles to talk about the importance of corporate governance, and how we, as investors, have abandoned the power to change management at many younger tech companies in return for being able to invest in young tech companies, with growth...
Mazdak
Cloudflare 2024 Internet Report Analysis
Join us as we break down Cloudflare's groundbreaking report and expose fascinating trends in...
3 weeks ago
Join us as we break down Cloudflare's groundbreaking report and expose fascinating trends in internet traffic, security, and adoption.
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
Citation Needed
Effective obfuscation
Silicon Valley's "effective altruism" and "effective accelerationism" only give a thin philosophical...
a year ago
Silicon Valley's "effective altruism" and "effective accelerationism" only give a thin philosophical veneer to the industry's same old impulses.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #165
Buffett on Inflation, Dollar General, Due Diligence, Personal Libraries, The role of AI in drug...
a year ago
Buffett on Inflation, Dollar General, Due Diligence, Personal Libraries, The role of AI in drug discovery, Small-cap opportunities, and interviews of Peter Brown, Bill Gross, Chris Bloomstran.
Commoncog
Power and Asian Business
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
3 weeks ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #216
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement",...
3 months ago
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement", Caro's writing process, Buffett's ground rules, Sherwin Williams, Mysterious owls
The Diff
Are VCs Incentivized to be too Nice for Venture Debt?
Plus! Art of the Cram-Down; Transaction Costs; Amazon Air; Bull Markets; Misinformation
4 weeks ago
Plus! Art of the Cram-Down; Transaction Costs; Amazon Air; Bull Markets; Misinformation
Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
over a year ago
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
a year ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
Mazdak
5 best investments during high interest rates
Interest rates are rising, and that means it's time to rethink your investment strategy. When...
a year ago
Interest rates are rising, and that means it's time to rethink your investment strategy. When interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds declines, and stocks can become more volatile. However, there are still a number of investments that can perform well in a high interest...
Musings on Markets
Tesla in November 2023 : Story twists and turns, with value consequences!
I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be...
a year ago
I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be misleading, since Tesla never leaves the news. Some of that attention comes from the company's products and innovations, but much of it comes from having Elon Musk as a CEO, a man...
Mazdak
Inflation finally chills out! Americans rejoice & recession whispers fade as prices dip and spending...
The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first...
a year ago
The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first decline since way back in 2020! This ain't no mirage, folks - inflation is cooling down, and the Fed's fight against skyrocketing prices is showing real results!
Mazdak
A Review and Analysis of "The Laws of Human Nature" by Robert Greene
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different...
10 months ago
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different approach in his 2018 book, "The Laws of Human Nature." Instead of focusing on acquiring power over others, he dives deep into the intricate workings of human psychology, unveiling...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #203
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value...
6 months ago
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value Investor's Club, Nietzsche's world view, Are wrist watches effeminate?, Seinfeld on writing
Citation Needed
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
3 months ago
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
Calculated Risk
Question #5 for 2025: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
4 days ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #204
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing...
6 months ago
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing down time, Return of meme stocks, The U.S. Constitution, Gouverneur Morris, Cleopatra
Mazdak
Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones...
10 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones of Canadian financial planning. Both offer distinct advantages for saving and investing, but exceeding their annual contribution limits can lead to unwanted financial consequences.
Moneyness
The strange new world of multifunctional assets
I would never own it, but the cryptocurrency BNB is probably one of the strangest most interesting...
a year ago
I would never own it, but the cryptocurrency BNB is probably one of the strangest most interesting assets I've ever analyzed. No other asset (perhaps ever?) provides its owner with so much functionality.
Is the sort of multi-functionality offered by assets like BNB a feature...
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
2 months ago
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not?
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
over a year ago
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a heatmap.
Moneyness
Tornado Cash un-OFAC'ed
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado...
4 weeks ago
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado Cash, a bot that can be used for obfuscating crypto, is safe from being sanctioned.
I first wrote about Tornado Cash in 2021, before its legal troubles began, warning of the risks...
Citation Needed
Issue 57 - I take deep breath and I get real high
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC...
8 months ago
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC is on a Wells notice bender.
Commoncog
An Increase in Membership Prices
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old...
a year ago
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
Mazdak
Unlocking Tax Savings and Building Wealth for Your Children: A Smart Strategy for Business Owners
As a business owner, you're constantly seeking ways to optimize your operations, reduce costs, and...
a year ago
As a business owner, you're constantly seeking ways to optimize your operations, reduce costs, and maximize profits. But have you considered a strategy that not only benefits your business but also sets your children up for financial success? The concept of hiring your children...
Bits about Money
Deposit franchises as natural hedges
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest...
a year ago
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest rates. How did we get here?
Musings on Markets
Data Update 7 for 2023: Dividends, Buybacks and Cash Flows
This is the last of my data update posts for 2023, and in this one, I will focus on dividends and...
a year ago
This is the last of my data update posts for 2023, and in this one, I will focus on dividends and buybacks, perhaps the most most misunderstood and misplayed element of corporate finance. To illustrate the heat that buybacks evoke, consider two stories in the last two weeks where...
Moneyness
Are central banks too reliant on SWIFT for domestic payments?
Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally...
a year ago
Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally important to our lives, but we never see them in action. All of a nations' electronic payments are ultimately completed, or settled, on these systems. If they stop working, our...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #212
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates,...
4 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates, Competing in Search, The American Dream, Li Lu, Deep Dive into AI, The Impact of Debt, and more ...
Mazdak
Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open...
a year ago
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open source development has emerged, firing shots at the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. These tech giants have captured much of the AI spotlight in 2023, but the alliance believes...
Commoncog
Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a...
a year ago
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a deliberate practice training program isn't as difficult as you might think.
Mazdak
Minimize Taxes, Maximize Inheritance: A Canadian Guide to Estate Planning with Real Estate
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key...
11 months ago
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key concerns. In this context, real estate, often the largest asset, presents unique challenges and opportunities. While strategies like adding children to titles were once popular,...
Mazdak
Apple & Google Face Mounting Threats to $500 Billion Market
The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is...
a year ago
The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is facing a growing number of threats. A recent court ruling against Google and new regulations in Europe and Asia could force the two tech giants to open up their app stores to more...
Moneyness
In praise of anti-money laundering thresholds
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money...
a year ago
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money laundering thresholds.
In the first story, the New York Times shows how regular folks are increasingly losing their bank accounts because their bank perceives them to be engaging in...
The Rational Walk
Prometheus Bound
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus...
6 months ago
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus dating back to the fifth century BC.
Mazdak
Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its...
10 months ago
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its acquisition of smart TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion. This deal is far more than just about TVs; it's a strategic play by Walmart to become a major force in the booming
Full Width 
Shortcuts 
Sign Up 
Log In 
Articles 
Reading List 