The Rational Walk
The Use of Letters
As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It...
a year ago
As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It makes no sense to refuse to learn vicariously.
The Rational Walk
The Iliad
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
8 months ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
The Diff
Where do AI Agents Get Deployed First?
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
2 weeks ago
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
The Rational Walk
Thucydides
Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between...
4 months ago
Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between 431 - 404 BC.
The Rational Walk
Superinvestor Portfolio Changes — Q3 2023
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General,...
a year ago
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General, Markel, and Semper Augustus.
Commoncog
Eric Nehrlich on the Art of Executive Coaching and Forecasting
Cedric talks to Eric Nehrlich about driving down the error rate for Google's revenue forecasting...
a year ago
Cedric talks to Eric Nehrlich about driving down the error rate for Google's revenue forecasting from 10-20% down to 0.5%, his approach to executive coaching, and how to come up with small experiments for personal growth.
Commoncog
The 2022 Commoncog Recap
This was the final newsletter edition sent out to subscribers at the end of 2022. A recap of...
a year ago
This was the final newsletter edition sent out to subscribers at the end of 2022. A recap of Commoncog's best ideas, and a preview of several upcoming experiments.
Commoncog
Announcing the Commoncog Case Library Public Beta
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate...
over a year ago
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate business expertise. Find out more.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #205
Books I read in Q2, Buffett's estate plan, The magic of compounding, How to read a book, Portfolio...
5 months ago
Books I read in Q2, Buffett's estate plan, The magic of compounding, How to read a book, Portfolio rebalancing, Ben Graham in 1955, Sam Walton, LBJ, Robert Moses, The origins of language
Commoncog
Process Improvement is Trickier Than You Think
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because...
over a year ago
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because they're bad or lazy — but because there are system dynamics that prevent them from doing so. We take a look at what those are.
The Rational Walk
Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined...
8 months ago
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined ratio.
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not?
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
over a year ago
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a heatmap.
FIRE v London
Becoming an ISA $millionaire
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until...
a year ago
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until using my full annual ISA allowance(s), which took me much longer than usual last year. This year I actually completed my ISA topups in April, within a few weeks of the start of the...
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
a year ago
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
balajis.com
Too Fake to Tell
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
a year ago
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
Mazdak
Nearly All US Job Growth in November Came From Just 3 Sectors!
Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's...
a year ago
Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's even more interesting is that nearly all of this job growth came from just three sectors! So, which sectors are we talking about? Healthcare: Leading the pack with a steady demand...
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
8 months ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
Mazdak
Trump's Antitrust Agenda: Big Tech in the Balance
Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
a month ago
Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
The Rational Walk
Donald Trump’s Resounding Victory
Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable...
a month ago
Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable majority in the electoral college but a likely majority in the national popular vote as well.
Mazdak
Minimize Taxes, Maximize Inheritance: A Canadian Guide to Estate Planning with Real Estate
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key...
10 months ago
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key concerns. In this context, real estate, often the largest asset, presents unique challenges and opportunities. While strategies like adding children to titles were once popular,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #179
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI...
a year ago
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI colonoscopies, Advice on tipping, Alcohol and cardiovascular risks, Nicomachean ethics
Mazdak
The Shadow Bankers Rise: Private Credit Fuels M&A in a Turbulent Market
While 2023 witnessed a 6% dip in US M&A value, a silent force has emerged as the lifeblood of...
11 months ago
While 2023 witnessed a 6% dip in US M&A value, a silent force has emerged as the lifeblood of deal-making in this uncertain market: private credit. Stepping in where traditional bank financing hesitates, private credit has carved a niche with its nimble agility and diverse tools.
Commoncog
Charlie Munger’s Supply Demand Curve Puzzle
What a puzzle from Charlie Munger tells us about a supply-side business model with unreasonably high...
a year ago
What a puzzle from Charlie Munger tells us about a supply-side business model with unreasonably high returns.
Musings on Markets
Toys for Billionaires: Sports Franchises as Trophy Assets!
I have always loved sports, playing tennis and cricket when I was growing up, before transitioning...
a year ago
I have always loved sports, playing tennis and cricket when I was growing up, before transitioning to fan status, cheering for my favored teams from the sidelines. I also like finance, perhaps not as much as sports, but there are winners and losers in the investment game as well....
The Rational Walk
Too Clever by Half!
The temptation to trade in the stock market can be overwhelming, especially when prices are moving...
9 months ago
The temptation to trade in the stock market can be overwhelming, especially when prices are moving quickly. It's useful to ask, "What would Charlie Munger say?"
Seeking Wisdom
Buffett’s Bathtub Memory
I love reading physical books. But there’s one problem with physical books. My shelf space is...
a year ago
I love reading physical books. But there’s one problem with physical books. My shelf space is limited. To overcome the shelf space limitation, I developed a simple fitness function for my books. Books that I won’t reread will be donated to the library. Don’t get me wrong. They...
Commoncog
What Process Improvement in Education Looks Like
What rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
2 months ago
What rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should be able to do this in your own org contexts.
FIRE v London
My 20 year property returns
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But...
a year ago
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But my net worth includes an important asset class – property – that I don’t normally track, but which I have held in some form for over 20 years. So, this post takes a look at how my…...
The Rational Walk
Just Hold the Goddamn Stock!
Charlie Munger's solution to estate planning at Berkshire was simple: Just Hold the Goddamn Stock!...
3 months ago
Charlie Munger's solution to estate planning at Berkshire was simple: Just Hold the Goddamn Stock! Unfortunately, his advice is not easy to follow.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 Results — Manufacturing, Service, and Retailing
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on...
a year ago
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on results in Q3 2023 as well as a longer term view.
The Rational Walk
Three Lessons
A few life lessons based on observations over a half century.
a year ago
A few life lessons based on observations over a half century.
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
12 months ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
9 months ago
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
11 months ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Mazdak
Mastering Twitter/X Growth: Strategies to Skyrocket Your Follower Count
Twitter/X stands as one of the leading platforms for sharing ideas, connecting with others, and...
a year ago
Twitter/X stands as one of the leading platforms for sharing ideas, connecting with others, and building your personal brand. With the right strategies, you can transform your Twitter presence into a thriving community of engaged followers. In this blog post, I'll dive into...
FIRE v London
Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to...
a year ago
April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK. Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to check out Dorset’s Chesil beach. We struck lucky with the weather and had a fine, distinctly non-London, time, over a very blustery Easter weekend. My walking shoes seem to have...
Mazdak
Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful...
a year ago
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful player in the industry. This deal puts an end to a years-long investigation into Binance. The deal: CZ agreed to pay $50 million in fines and is prohibited from operating or managing...
Mazdak
Block, TikTok & Beyond
From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping...
a month ago
From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping our digital world.
Mazdak
AI Fuels Alphabet's Growth
Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
a month ago
Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2024: The data speaks, but what does it say?
In January 1993, I was valuing a retail company, and I found myself wondering what a reasonable...
11 months ago
In January 1993, I was valuing a retail company, and I found myself wondering what a reasonable margin was for a firm operating in the retail business. In pursuit of an answer to that question, I used company-specific data from Value Line, one of the earliest entrants into the...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
FOMC...
4 days ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
FOMC Statement:
lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the...
The Rational Walk
Will Progressive’s Growth Strategy Pay Off?
The auto insurer continues to add customers but posted disappointing results in the second quarter...
a year ago
The auto insurer continues to add customers but posted disappointing results in the second quarter due to catastrophe losses and inadequate pricing.
Commoncog
Tacit Expertise Extraction, Software Engineering Edition
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior...
10 months ago
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior software engineers'. Useful to anyone who might want to accelerate their own skills.
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
7 months ago
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
FIRE v London
From ISA $millionaire to £millionaire
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put...
4 months ago
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put £20k per year into an ISA account – use it for a wide range of investing activities – and not even have to report on what happens in those accounts, let alone pay tax on them.…...
Moneyness
Pricing the anonymity of banknotes
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a
standard set of payments...
a month ago
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a
standard set of payments services, they also offer financial anonymity.
This post introduces the idea of trying to price the anonymity
component.
To help think about why we might want to price anonymous...
Mazdak
Free Press or Bezos Press? The Washington Post Stays Silent
This episode examines the Washington Post's controversial decision to no longer endorse presidential...
a month ago
This episode examines the Washington Post's controversial decision to no longer endorse presidential candidates, a move that has sparked outrage and accusations of cowardice, especially given the perceived threat to democracy posed by one of the candidates.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #224
Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending...
a month ago
Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending human lifespan, Fastenal's success story, Buffett's early investments, IKEA's founder
Citation Needed
Issue 61 – Soft war by the enemy
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the...
5 months ago
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the crypto lobby, and some new regulatory actions.
Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Increased Slightly in Q3 2024
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024:
The Industry’s Net Income Decreased...
a week ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024:
The Industry’s Net Income Decreased From the Prior Quarter, Driven by One-Time Items
Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios
Persists
the industry reported the largest...
The Diff
What Would a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Actually Do?
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State:...
3 weeks ago
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State: Beauty Filters Edition
The Diff
Are VCs Incentivized to be too Nice for Venture Debt?
Plus! Art of the Cram-Down; Transaction Costs; Amazon Air; Bull Markets; Misinformation
2 weeks ago
Plus! Art of the Cram-Down; Transaction Costs; Amazon Air; Bull Markets; Misinformation
Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
6 months ago
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
The Rational Walk
A Dangerous Interregnum
President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russian territory...
a month ago
President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russian territory risks plunging the world into crisis in the finals months of his administration.
Commoncog
The Shape of a Technological Window
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how...
over a year ago
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how he used it over the course of his career. Note: this is a follow-up to and an update for the Commoncog Case Library Beta.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q3 Flow of Funds
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly...
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week.
Producer Price Index for November from the BLS. The...
Seeking Wisdom
From Linear to Logistic – Sigmoid Curve and Log Loss
Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my...
a year ago
Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Let’s train a model to predict heart disease using sleep and exercise data....
The Rational Walk
The Digest #212
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates,...
3 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates, Competing in Search, The American Dream, Li Lu, Deep Dive into AI, The Impact of Debt, and more ...
Commoncog
Learning About Moats the Hard Way
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end...
6 months ago
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end of his career.
Musings on Markets
Breach of Trust: Decoding the Banking Crisis
In March 2023, the fall of Silicon Valley Bank shocked investors not only because it was unforeseen,...
a year ago
In March 2023, the fall of Silicon Valley Bank shocked investors not only because it was unforeseen, but also because of the speed with which it unfolded. That failure has had a domino effect, with Signature Bank falling soon after, followed by Credit Suisse in April 2023 and by...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides,...
2 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides, Sophocles, Persian Fire, Hillbilly Elegy, and more.
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
over a year ago
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
8 months ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #180
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting,...
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting, Damodaran on key person risk, Microsoft's IPO, Howard Marks and Annie Duke on risk
The Rational Walk
Roth IRA Conversions For Early Retirees
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and...
2 months ago
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and avoid falling into a high tax bracket.
The Rational Walk
Prometheus Bound
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus...
6 months ago
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus dating back to the fifth century BC.
Citation Needed
Caroline Ellison: A woman with agency or a helpless pawn?
Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX...
2 months ago
Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX collapse?
Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
11 months ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
Commoncog
Capital Allocation as an Antidote to Business Luck
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a...
a year ago
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a business outcome. Capital allocation matters because it allows you more skill, less luck, on the journey to a large outcome.
Commoncog
A Most Unlikely Master of Capital Allocation
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in...
11 months ago
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in her life, then perhaps you could, too.
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
a year ago
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #182
Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire,...
12 months ago
Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire, Better habits for 2024, Amusing CPA stories, Ben Graham, Charlie Munger, Pernod Ricard
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual...
4 days ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #170
The Precautionary Principle, GEICO Layoffs, Superlinear Returns, TIPS for Retirement, Rockefeller's...
a year ago
The Precautionary Principle, GEICO Layoffs, Superlinear Returns, TIPS for Retirement, Rockefeller's advice to his son, Impact of GLP-1 agonists, Tesla's IPO, Conference call transcripts, and more ...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #225
A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role...
a month ago
A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role in Trump's Victory, Taxes in Retirement, James J. Hill, IKEA, F. A. Hayek, Shakespeare
The Rational Walk
The Digest #173
Berkshire's Q3 earnings, Munger on retailing, SBF's strange philosophy, Rob Henderson on reading,...
a year ago
Berkshire's Q3 earnings, Munger on retailing, SBF's strange philosophy, Rob Henderson on reading, Howard Marks on a full return world, Morgan Housel on writing that sells, Cities on Mars
The Rational Walk
Paid Subscriptions
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
8 months ago
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
Calculated Risk
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
A brief excerpt:
We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage...
Seeking Wisdom
Case for indexing
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In...
a year ago
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In 1989, 65% of the top 20 global companies were domiciled in Japan. After three decades, 65% of the top 20 global companies are from the US. No companies from Japan made into the top...
Mazdak
Adobe Scraps $20 Billion Figma Deal
Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the...
a year ago
Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the table! This dramatic pivot throws a spotlight on the tightening grip of global regulators on tech mergers, leaving investors and industry players to wonder:
Citation Needed
Issue 64 – Pointing its arsenal at our friends
As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like...
4 months ago
As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like “Crypto4Harris”, others insist it is Harris who must “bend the knee”.
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
a year ago
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
Musings on Markets
META Lesson 1: Corporate Governance
As we get deeper into earnings season for the third quarter of 2022, the biggest negative surprises...
over a year ago
As we get deeper into earnings season for the third quarter of 2022, the biggest negative surprises are coming from technology companies, with the tech giants leading the way. Investors, used to a decade of better-than-expected earnings and rising stock prices at these companies,...
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 16th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 26.6% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now...
6 days ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now 7.7% below the peak for the year (8 weeks ago).
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
Mazdak
Anthropic & Amazon Partnership
In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup,...
4 weeks ago
In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup, and Amazon, the tech giant with cloud dominance.
Musings on Markets
The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor!
If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums,...
a year ago
If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. As part of that obsession, since September 2008, I have estimated an equity risk premium...
FIRE v London
Feeling broke
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is...
a year ago
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is captured in my monthly portfolio updates, I thought it was worth recording some of my emotions while they are still fresh. Two years ago Turning the clock back, my financial...
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
8 months ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2024: Profitability - The End Game for Business?
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free...
10 months ago
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the...
Mazdak
Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀
a year ago
Commoncog
The Capital Cycle
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
a year ago
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
Mazdak
Tesla's Trump Card: How a Presidency Could Fuel a Trillion-Dollar Boom
What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
a month ago
What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
Mazdak
In the AI Race: Embrace Commoditization, Focus on Customer Value
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for...
a year ago
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for attention and a slice of the market pie. In this competitive environment, it's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of proprietary components and cutting-edge algorithms,...
Mazdak
Fed Signals Shift to Easing: Rate Cuts Likely in 2024, Economy Expected to Remain Solid.
The Federal Reserve is signalling a change of course, and it's music to the ears of businesses,...
a year ago
The Federal Reserve is signalling a change of course, and it's music to the ears of businesses, investors, and everyday Americans. After two years of aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation, the central bank is now laying the groundwork for a shift towards easing
Mazdak
Nvidia Takes the Crown: The AI Chip Giant Dethrones Apple
Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
a month ago
Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #208
Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs...
5 months ago
Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs in 1983, Microsoft deep dive, Marks on risk, Luca Delanna on ergodicity, Guadalcanal
Musings on Markets
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors!
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
a month ago
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
Moneyness
There won't be a Blackrock bitcoin ETF, at least not until Binance bites the dust
Back in 2018 I wrote about the controversy over the constant stream of bitcoin ETF denials emanating...
a year ago
Back in 2018 I wrote about the controversy over the constant stream of bitcoin ETF denials emanating from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). And my conclusion then was: "further rejections likely." My conclusion in 2023 is the same. Even with Wall Street-giant...
balajis.com
The Network State Book
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
Seeking Wisdom
What I learned from Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics Course at FLAME University
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University....
over a year ago
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University. Being his student since 2011, I realized my dream by sitting in his class for 3.5 days. Prof. Bakshi taught us around 20 different models from Charlie Munger’s Psychology of Human...
Citation Needed
Issue 43 – Laser eyes
Two crypto firms emerge from bankruptcy, and a Bored Ape party turns out even worse than it sounds.
a year ago
Two crypto firms emerge from bankruptcy, and a Bored Ape party turns out even worse than it sounds.
Mazdak
Is Tesla's Full Self-Driving REALLY Safer Than Humans?
Tesla's latest vehicle safety report claims that Autopilot has a crash rate of one accident per 7...
a month ago
Tesla's latest vehicle safety report claims that Autopilot has a crash rate of one accident per 7 million miles, significantly lower than the U.S.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2023, most notably Dominion by Tom...
a year ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2023, most notably Dominion by Tom Holland and The Path Between the Seas by David McCullough.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Meeting
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage...
4 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage purchase applications index.
Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.344 million SAAR, up from 1.311 million SAAR.
Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #213
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects,...
3 months ago
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects, Personal Bots, Bitcoin, AI vs. Reality, "Useless" Knowledge, Jay Bowen, Rudy Havenstein
Commoncog
Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do...
10 months ago
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do it. This is everything you need to know to actually become data driven, from scratch, using the same first principles that Amazon, Koch, and Toyota used back in their day.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 7 for 2023: Dividends, Buybacks and Cash Flows
This is the last of my data update posts for 2023, and in this one, I will focus on dividends and...
a year ago
This is the last of my data update posts for 2023, and in this one, I will focus on dividends and buybacks, perhaps the most most misunderstood and misplayed element of corporate finance. To illustrate the heat that buybacks evoke, consider two stories in the last two weeks where...
The Rational Walk
Claim Checks
Viewing money as "claim checks" that can be exchanged for goods and services is a very useful...
5 months ago
Viewing money as "claim checks" that can be exchanged for goods and services is a very useful concept.
The Rational Walk
Free Articles!
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
8 months ago
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
Moneyness
After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the...
5 days ago
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the topic starting with my first post in October 2012. Since then I've written 109 posts on the Moneyness Blog that reference bitcoin, along with a few dozen articles at venues like...
Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦)
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
11 months ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
balajis.com
The Elondrop
Build the political support necessary to free Twitter with the largest airdrop in history.
over a year ago
Build the political support necessary to free Twitter with the largest airdrop in history.
Moneyness
Tornado Cash un-OFAC'ed
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado...
2 weeks ago
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado Cash, a bot that can be used for obfuscating crypto, is safe from being sanctioned.
I first wrote about Tornado Cash in 2021, before its legal troubles began, warning of the risks...
Musings on Markets
Reaping the Whirlwind: A September 2022 Inflation Update!
In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just...
over a year ago
In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just starting to see could be explained by COVID and supply chain issues, prudence on the part of policy makers required that it be taken as a long term threat and dealt with quickly. Not...
Bits about Money
Money laundering and AML compliance
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
a year ago
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd...
a week ago
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays.
----- Monday, December 16th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
Mazdak
Google Quantum Computer, OpenAI Sora Video Generator and more ...
Google just dropped a bombshell in quantum computing.
a week ago
Google just dropped a bombshell in quantum computing.
Citation Needed
Video: The Cryptocurrency Industry's Unprecedented Election Spending
Let's talk about where the money came from, where it went, the cryptocurrency industry's political...
4 weeks ago
Let's talk about where the money came from, where it went, the cryptocurrency industry's political goals, and what’s next.
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
9 months ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
Citation Needed
Review: Chris Dixon's Read Write Own
Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain...
10 months ago
Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain solutionists.
Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
4 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales tomorrow, Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96...
The Rational Walk
The Limits of the 25th Amendment
The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe...
5 months ago
The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe limits that should be acknowledged.
Commoncog
Data is an Added Sense
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in...
4 months ago
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in business.
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
a year ago
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
Farnam Street
Reciprocity: Getting What You Give
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics,...
over a year ago
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics, Chemistry and Biology Reciprocity teaches us why win-win relationships are the way to go, why waiters leave candies with the bill, why it’s a good idea to use the least force possible...
FIRE v London
Mar ’23: Harvesting tax losses
March has been rather a wet month in London. Wet, and cold. This translates into the ski slopes in...
a year ago
March has been rather a wet month in London. Wet, and cold. This translates into the ski slopes in the French Alps (finally) having great conditions – sadly too late for me to enjoy. Further north, it’s been a month of big change in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon, the...
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance)
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
5 months ago
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
Commoncog
High Roller: Lessons from America's Richest Banker
Andy Beal's story is an astounding story of capital allocation, incidentally making him America's...
a year ago
Andy Beal's story is an astounding story of capital allocation, incidentally making him America's richest banker. A guest post by Frederik Gieschen.
Mazdak
Inside xAI: Musk vs. OpenAI
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his...
3 weeks ago
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his former company, OpenAI, to do it.
Bits about Money
BAM's Early Adopter discount ends soon
Bits about Money's Early Adopter discount ends on January 31st, 2023.
a year ago
Bits about Money's Early Adopter discount ends on January 31st, 2023.
Commoncog
What is Power?
Understanding how power works in business is necessary to understanding business in developing...
3 weeks ago
Understanding how power works in business is necessary to understanding business in developing markets. A members-only mini series.
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
2 months ago
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Personal Income...
2 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the PCE price index to increase 0.2%, and...
Calculated Risk
December 20th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
yesterday
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Commoncog
An Increase in Membership Prices
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old...
a year ago
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
Musings on Markets
Fed up with Fed Talk? Fact-checking Central Banking Fairy Tales!
The big story on Wednesday, September 18, was that the Federal Reserve’s open market committee...
3 months ago
The big story on Wednesday, September 18, was that the Federal Reserve’s open market committee finally got around to “cutting rates”, and doing so by more than expected. This action, much debated and discussed during all of 2024, was greeted as "big" news, and market...
Mazdak
AI.com to Chat.com: OpenAI's Domain Domination
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've...
a month ago
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've dropped a huge amount of cash – likely over $15.5 million – to snag the premium domain Chat.com.
Musings on Markets
Putting the (Insta)cart before the (Grocery) horse: A COVID Favorite's Reality Check!
After years of rumors of an imminent IPO, Instacart has finally filed for a public offering of it’s...
a year ago
After years of rumors of an imminent IPO, Instacart has finally filed for a public offering of it’s shares, aspiring to raise about $600 million from markets, at a pricing of about $9-$10 billion for its equity. Coming in the week after ARM, an AI chip designer, also filed to go...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #168
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's...
a year ago
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's IPO, Costco's clothing, Todd Combs interview, Equifax, and more ...
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence, Gemini 2.0, Amazon Autos and more
Apple just redefined how we use Siri.
a week ago
Apple just redefined how we use Siri.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus,...
5 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus, Herodotus, the Odyssey, and American Scripture.
The Diff
Social Media as a Test of Human-in-the-Loop Generative AI
Plus! Holdcos; Cash and Control; War Economies; In-Kind Dividends; Currency
a week ago
Plus! Holdcos; Cash and Control; War Economies; In-Kind Dividends; Currency
Musings on Markets
Data Update 6 for 2023: A Wake up call for the Indebted?
We have an uneasy relationship with debt, both in our personal and business lives. While it is a...
a year ago
We have an uneasy relationship with debt, both in our personal and business lives. While it is a financial decision, it is one that is freighted with moral overtones, since almost every religion inveighs against debt's sins, labeling those who lend as sinners and those who borrow...
Moneyness
How PayPal can use stablecoins to avoid AML requirements and make big profits
There's a new financial loophole in town: stablecoins. Stablecoins are dollar, yen, or pound-based...
9 months ago
There's a new financial loophole in town: stablecoins. Stablecoins are dollar, yen, or pound-based payments platforms that are built using crypto database technology.
Financial institutions are always looking for loopholes to game the system. Typically this has meant avoiding...
Commoncog
Focus on the Cases
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than...
over a year ago
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than synthesised business concepts.
Mazdak
The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured...
a year ago
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured the attention of the world. ChatGPT's ability to generate human-quality text, translate languages, write different kinds of creative content, and answer questions in an informative...
Moneyness
The lower limit to silver's usefulness in coinage
A detectorist in Suffolk, England recently found a beautiful halfpenny minted some time between...
a year ago
A detectorist in Suffolk, England recently found a beautiful halfpenny minted some time between 1625-1649, during the reign of King Charles I. This coin, captured in the video below, illustrates an important feature of coinage: the lower limit to silver's usefulness as a monetary...
Mazdak
Apple & Google Face Mounting Threats to $500 Billion Market
The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is...
a year ago
The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is facing a growing number of threats. A recent court ruling against Google and new regulations in Europe and Asia could force the two tech giants to open up their app stores to more...
FIRE v London
July ’24: New UK government
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
4 months ago
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
Mazdak
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Advertising Monopoly.
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. iPhone 15 Pro Max: Everything We Know So Far About...
a year ago
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. iPhone 15 Pro Max: Everything We Know So Far About Apple's Next Flagship. Reddit Protests Continue as Company Threatens to Remove Moderators. Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. Gannett, the largest U.S. newspaper chain, has...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
10 months ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
Mazdak
10 Steps to Transform Your Life
As someone who has built and scaled multiple businesses over decades, I've learned that success...
a month ago
As someone who has built and scaled multiple businesses over decades, I've learned that success isn't about sporadic breakthroughs—it's about consistent, intentional changes in how we think and act.
The Rational Walk
The Other Side of the Trade
Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other...
6 months ago
Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other stocks to temporarily crash on June 3, 2024.
The Rational Walk
GEICO Prioritizes Profits Over Market Share
Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price...
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price of ceding market share that will be costly to regain in the future.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 2023 Results
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices,...
a year ago
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices, Clayton Homes, Apple, and share repurchases.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #206
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of...
5 months ago
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of Silicon Valley, Self-esteem and outer scorecards, MMT's founder is worried about deficits
Moneyness
Why is Binance leaving Canada?
Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, announced last month that it would be exiting Canada....
a year ago
Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, announced last month that it would be exiting Canada. At the time, it blamed "new guidance" issued by Canada's securities regulators. We now have an even more detailed explanation from Binance about the nature of this "new guidance."...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #221
Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro:...
a month ago
Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro: Success or Failure?, Berkshire in the 1960s, Whole Foods, Black Diamond, Merck, Wormholes
Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US)
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
11 months ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #202
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter...
6 months ago
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter syndrome, Decline of higher education, Howard Schultz, Cathie Wood, Robert Hagstrom
Mazdak
Yelp's Transformation: From Review Revolution to Advertising Efficiency
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a...
12 months ago
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. Shifting from a sales-driven model to a self-service advertising engine, Yelp has achieved significant efficiency gains and revitalized its...
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights!
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
2 months ago
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #186
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment...
11 months ago
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment checklists, Shane Parrish interviews Tom Gayner, Novo Nordisk, Howard Marks on interest rates
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 1
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts...
a year ago
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Take the statement, ‘I will only go for a walk if it’s nice outside AND I have free time.’ This can be neatly represented using a truth table. We can…
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
a year ago
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
Mazdak
Google's AI Search Tool: A Traffic Nightmare for Publishers?
AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
a year ago
AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
Moneyness
Is it legal to mix cash in a jar?
Chris Blec asks the following question:
Source: Twitter
Chris's premise is that it is "not...
a year ago
Chris Blec asks the following question:
Source: Twitter
Chris's premise is that it is "not illegal" for him to get together with a bunch of strangers to mix cash. But that's not quite right. It can be legal. It can also be illegal. To determine which it is, we need to...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #183
Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing,...
11 months ago
Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing, Rivian, AI's morality, AI bubble?, How James Longstreet defied the South after the war
Moneyness
It's time to impose Iran-calibre sanctions on Russia
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long...
11 months ago
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long list of sanctions that the G7 coalition has placed on Russia in response to its attack on Ukraine are surprisingly light compared to the fewer but far more-draconian sanctions...
Moneyness
It's time to trash the "store of value" function of money
When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that...
a week ago
When we first learn about money and banking in high school or university, we are all taught that money has three functions: medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value. Maybe it’s time for educators to throw out this triumvirate. It’s not very accurate.
We need a...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Equilibrium
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
8 months ago
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier post first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium, oscillation,...
Mazdak
Tesla's Robotaxi: A Gamble?
Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on...
a month ago
Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on October 10th.
balajis.com
Bond Villain
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
a year ago
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway MBA
Studying Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Berkshire Hathaway's history can provide a level of...
a year ago
Studying Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Berkshire Hathaway's history can provide a level of fluency in business and investing rivaling a costly MBA degree.
Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
7 months ago
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
Moneyness
A glass half-full take on Caucasus sanctions evasion
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being...
2 months ago
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being carried out through the Caucasus. He visits the Lars border crossing between Georgia and Russia to document how smugglers are openly moving British and German luxury cars into Russia, in...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of
22,000 from the...
3 days ago
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of
22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,500, an increase of
1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 224,250.
emphasis added
The...
Musings on Markets
A Zomato 2022 Update: Value, Pricing and the Gap
On July 21, 2021, I valued Zomato just ahead of its initial public offering at about ₹41 per share....
over a year ago
On July 21, 2021, I valued Zomato just ahead of its initial public offering at about ₹41 per share. The market clearly had a very different view, as the stock premiered at ₹74 per share and soared into the stratosphere, peaking at ₹169 per share in late 2021. The last few months...
Musings on Markets
Dealing with Aging: Updating the Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks Stories!
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that...
3 months ago
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that the corporate life cycle can explain what happens to companies as they age, and why they have to adapt to aging with their actions and choices. In parallel, I also noted that...
balajis.com
The Balaji Chat
A forum for balajis.com subscribers.
a year ago
A forum for balajis.com subscribers.
Commoncog
What To Think When Looking at a Chart
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb...
a year ago
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb question that nobody seems to talk about.
Mazdak
Today's Top Tech News - Amazon's Discount Store
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
a month ago
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
Mazdak
The Weight-Loss Gold Rush
A Race to Develop Blockbuster Obesity Drugs
a year ago
A Race to Develop Blockbuster Obesity Drugs
Bits about Money
KYC and AML: beyond the acronyms
Know Your Customer policies at financial institutions have more nuance than you'd expect.
a year ago
Know Your Customer policies at financial institutions have more nuance than you'd expect.
Citation Needed
The stones left unturned in the Sam Bankman-Fried trial
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many...
a year ago
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many questions remain about what happened at Bankman-Fried's crypto empire.
Musings on Markets
Market Resilience or Investors In Denial? A Mid-year Assessment for 2023!
I am not a market prognosticator for a simple reason. I am just not good at it, and the first six...
a year ago
I am not a market prognosticator for a simple reason. I am just not good at it, and the first six months of 2023 illustrate why market timing is often the impossible dream, something that every investor aspires to be successful at, but very few succeed on a consistent basis. At...
Mazdak
OpenAI in Turmoil: Altman and Brockman Join Microsoft, Employees Revolt
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the...
a year ago
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the non-profit research company behind groundbreaking artificial intelligence advancements, are joining Microsoft to lead a new research unit. This move comes after failed talks to reinstate...
Moneyness
Monetagium
An English penny minted by William the Conqueror, who brought monetagium to England. Source: History...
6 months ago
An English penny minted by William the Conqueror, who brought monetagium to England. Source: History in Coins
The way that a modern mafia protection racket works is the mafia starts doing very bad things to regular folks, say you and your business. To stop the damage, you pay...
Citation Needed
Become a Wikipedian in 30 minutes
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be...
10 months ago
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be proliferating on the web? The number one thing you can do is learn to edit, and I will walk you through how to get started in only 30 minutes.
Commoncog
Dancing Landscapes in Business
Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the...
over a year ago
Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the wickedness of business.
The Diff
Initiations
Plus! Alternative Data; Size and Momentum; The Full Audience; Same-Day
2 weeks ago
Plus! Alternative Data; Size and Momentum; The Full Audience; Same-Day
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices
The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire...
9 months ago
The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices was not a party to the agreement but its business model will still be affected.
The Rational Walk
The Cost of Corporate Security
The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that...
a week ago
The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that justifies higher corporate spending to protect executives.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Q&A Session
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual...
7 months ago
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual meeting after Charlie Munger's death.
FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
9 months ago
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
Commoncog
Dell's Capital Expertise
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at...
a year ago
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at capital allows you to make moves that aren't available to a novice business operator.
The Rational Walk
New Articles Moving to Newsletter
Effective today, I will no longer post new articles to this website, rationalwalk.com. All new...
a year ago
Effective today, I will no longer post new articles to this website, rationalwalk.com. All new articles will be posted on my Substack at newsletter.rationalwalk.com.
The Rational Walk
Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of...
a year ago
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of the annual commitments pledged in 2006.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #209
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
4 months ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
balajis.com
Only Newsom Can Go To China
If Nixon and Mao came to an accord, so might Newsom and Xi.
a year ago
If Nixon and Mao came to an accord, so might Newsom and Xi.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #197
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
8 months ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
Mazdak
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds : The Great Investment Debate
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual...
8 months ago
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds can be a head-scratcher. Both offer diversification, professional management options, and access to a variety of asset classes. However, they differ significantly in how they...
Citation Needed
Privacy, human rights, and Tornado Cash
I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
7 months ago
I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
Citation Needed
Guilty or coerced? Ryan Salame’s last interviews before prison
Unpacking my conversation with FTX executive Ryan Salame, where we discussed his claims that he’s...
2 months ago
Unpacking my conversation with FTX executive Ryan Salame, where we discussed his claims that he’s innocent of the charges for which he’s now serving seven and a half years in prison.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #171
American Prometheus, Buffett buys more OXY, Share repurchases, Lessons from Todd Combs, The nature...
a year ago
American Prometheus, Buffett buys more OXY, Share repurchases, Lessons from Todd Combs, The nature of risk, Damodaran on markets, Keynes on the Treaty of Versailles, Attia on longevity
Mazdak
ChatGPT vs. Google: The AI Search Wars
The battle for the future of search is on! ChatGPT, the AI chatbot from OpenAI, can now search the...
a month ago
The battle for the future of search is on! ChatGPT, the AI chatbot from OpenAI, can now search the web, putting it in direct competition with Google.
Citation Needed
Follow the Crypto
FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024...
5 months ago
FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024 elections in the United States.
Musings on Markets
A Business Upended: Streaming disrupts the Entertainment Business!
It has been an unsettling summer for anyone with a stake in the movie, television and broadcasting...
a year ago
It has been an unsettling summer for anyone with a stake in the movie, television and broadcasting businesses. The strike by screen actors and writers which started in July is now into almost into its third month, with no end in sight, putting at risk the pipeline of movies and...
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications...
4 days ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from
one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending December 13,...
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.3% in November; Spending increased 0.4%
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:
Personal income increased...
2 days ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:
Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal...
Citation Needed
Issue 69 – Nice
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also,...
a month ago
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also, election spending hits a fever pitch, with several new crypto PACs coming out of the woodwork.
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence: Catching Up or Falling Behind?
Apple just launched its new AI features with much fanfare, but are they truly intelligent or just a...
a month ago
Apple just launched its new AI features with much fanfare, but are they truly intelligent or just a bunch of glowing gradients and sparkle icons?
The Rational Walk
The Sad Irons
During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill...
a year ago
During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill Country. Success was integral to his path to greater power.
Moneyness
Inflation as a tax
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order...
a year ago
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order to fight his wars. This provided Henry with the financial firepower to annex the city of Boulogne from the French in 1544, albeit at the price of England experiencing one of its...
balajis.com
#2 - Tobi Lütke & Kaz Nejatian on Shopify's Country-Sized Economy
Listen now (127 min) | Tobi Lütke (Shopify Founder & CEO), Kaz Nejatian (Shopify COO), and Balaji...
a year ago
Listen now (127 min) | Tobi Lütke (Shopify Founder & CEO), Kaz Nejatian (Shopify COO), and Balaji review how Shopify rose from tiny startup to $180B+ global economy, with an annual GMV on par with the GDP of New Zealand. In the process they touch on Hayek, the Hanseatic League,...
balajis.com
The Network School
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
4 months ago
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
Moneyness
The first round of U.S. secondary sanctions on Russia is working
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing...
10 months ago
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing payments for a narrow range of products that are on a so-called "green list," reports Ragip Soylu. This broad debanking of Russia by Turkey is part of the fallout from President...
Mazdak
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed...
a year ago
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed as contributions to nonprofit organizations. Shares of Amazon fell 1.8% on Nov. 15 and 0.3% on Nov. 16. Bezos still holds 988.3 million shares of Amazon, around 10% of the company.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #211
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist...
4 months ago
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist investing, Perils of forecasting, Orwell's 1984, Guy Spier, Ben Thompson, Estée Lauder
The Rational Walk
The Digest #163
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's...
a year ago
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's future, Nvidia, AI, Interpreting medical studies, Why Doomberg left Twitter, Jimmy Buffett, and more...
Mazdak
The Rollercoaster Ride of Long-Term Rates: What it Means for You and the Economy
Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that...
a year ago
Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that had everyone from policymakers to financial analysts glued to their screens? Well, guess what? It's mostly reversed! What does this mean? In a nutshell, it means a sigh of relief...
Mazdak
A Brighter Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024?
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples...
a year ago
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples through the housing market, sparking both excitement and cautious optimism among prospective buyers and existing homeowners alike. While the prospect of lower mortgage rates is...
Mazdak
Who Should You Ask for Feedback?
Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new...
a year ago
Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new ideas, and stay ahead of the competition. But not all feedback is created equal. If you want to get the most out of feedback, you need to ask the right people.
Moneyness
Where now FedNow?
Earlier this month the Federal Reserve introduced its new instant retail payments system, FedNow....
a year ago
Earlier this month the Federal Reserve introduced its new instant retail payments system, FedNow. This is actually the U.S.'s second real-time retail settlement system. The first, The Clearing House's Real Time Payments Network, or RTP, opened for business back in 2017.
As FedNow...
Moneyness
Why do sanctioned entities use Tether?
Tether, a stablecoin, has been in the news for offering sanctioned actors such as Hamas a means to...
a year ago
Tether, a stablecoin, has been in the news for offering sanctioned actors such as Hamas a means to participate in the global payments ecosystem.
In this post I want to explore in more depth how Tether is being used to dodge sanctions. I'm going to avoid drawing on the Hamas...
Commoncog
The Dangers of Expansion
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and...
4 months ago
A recurring pattern that seems to show up again and again in business: expansion is dangerous, and everyone really only learns this through pain.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #214
September 11, 2001, Nixon vs JFK, Apple's future, Damodaran on decline, Berkshire's book value,...
3 months ago
September 11, 2001, Nixon vs JFK, Apple's future, Damodaran on decline, Berkshire's book value, Founder mode, Chasing dividends, Caro on LBJ, Peter Lynch, Epicureanism, Mt Everest
The Rational Walk
The Digest #194
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation,...
9 months ago
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons of history
Mazdak
TFSA 2025: Your Complete Guide to Tax-Free Savings in Canada
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to...
2 weeks ago
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to be a bright spot for Canadian investors.
Commoncog
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
4 months ago
Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
Mazdak
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
a month ago
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
The Rational Walk
American Scripture
A review of Pauline Maier's book, "American Scripture", which details the conditions leading up to...
6 months ago
A review of Pauline Maier's book, "American Scripture", which details the conditions leading up to the drafting of the Declaration of Independence.
The Rational Walk
There’s Always a Reason
Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an...
a year ago
Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an important option for customers chronically short on cash.
balajis.com
Prompts are Tiny Programs
And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
11 months ago
And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #217
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The...
2 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The Fed's Inflationary Bias, Jimmy Carter at 100, Sam Altman, Bruno Leoni, Thermopylae
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in November
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production (IP)...
5 days ago
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production (IP) moved down 0.1 percent in November after declining 0.4 percent in October. In November, manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent, boosted by a 3.5 percent increase in the index for motor...
Mazdak
Inflation finally chills out! Americans rejoice & recession whispers fade as prices dip and spending...
The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first...
a year ago
The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first decline since way back in 2020! This ain't no mirage, folks - inflation is cooling down, and the Fed's fight against skyrocketing prices is showing real results!
The Rational Walk
The Digest #203
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value...
6 months ago
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value Investor's Club, Nietzsche's world view, Are wrist watches effeminate?, Seinfeld on writing
The Rational Walk
The Digest #156
Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century...
a year ago
Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century anarchy, Buffett and Japan, Claude Hopkins, Benjamin Franklin
Mazdak
Canada's Retail Pulse: Holiday Shopping Season Navigates Mixed Signals
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday...
a year ago
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday season. While October saw a surprising 0.7% increase in retail sales, exceeding economist expectations, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend in the face of rising...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #219
Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam...
2 months ago
Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam Zell, UK Bargains, Gregorys Coffee, Free Speech Under Assault, Dopamine and Addiction
The Rational Walk
A Seamless Web of Deserved Trust
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
11 months ago
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
The Rational Walk
Soldier On
In 1955, Charlie Munger's nine year old son died of leukemia, a disease with a nearly 100% death...
a year ago
In 1955, Charlie Munger's nine year old son died of leukemia, a disease with a nearly 100% death rate at the time. How did he overcome his grief and endure in life?
Musings on Markets
Breaking up Big Tech: Cui Bono?
In a court filing on October 9, 2024, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) let it be known that it was...
2 months ago
In a court filing on October 9, 2024, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) let it be known that it was considering a break-up of Alphabet, with the addendum that it would also be pushing for the company to share the data it collects across its multiple platforms with competitors....
balajis.com
The Start Of Startup Cities
Miami demonstrates that the era of startup cities is now underway.
a year ago
Miami demonstrates that the era of startup cities is now underway.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 1
This article presents lessons learned regarding investing in bonds based on Warren Buffett's...
a year ago
This article presents lessons learned regarding investing in bonds based on Warren Buffett's commentary in his final partnership letters written in 1969 and 1970.
Calculated Risk
AIA: Architecture Billings "Flat" in November; Multi-family Billings Turn Slightly Positive
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE)...
4 days ago
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.
ABI November 2024: Architecture firm billings remain flat
Despite the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score dipping slightly below 50 for the month, it remains close...
The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
10 months ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
Mazdak
Tired of Chasing Leads? Elevate Your Value Proposition
Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
a month ago
Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #181
Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò...
a year ago
Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò Machiavelli, internal vs. external goals, Safe withdrawal rates, Protecting your time
The Rational Walk
The Digest #226
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
3 weeks ago
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
Commoncog
An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two...
a year ago
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two months in: what I learnt, what was hard, and what deliberate practice actually feels like.
The Rational Walk
The Limits of an Inner Scorecard
Having an "inner scorecard" can be liberating and foster independent thinking, but ultimately human...
a year ago
Having an "inner scorecard" can be liberating and foster independent thinking, but ultimately human beings must also subject themselves to the judgment of key people in their lives.
Farnam Street
A Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active...
over a year ago
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active participant, the experience can transform the way you think, and how you see the world. *** Here’s a situation familiar to many of us: We decide to take a vacation and go somewhere...
The Rational Walk
Coffee Can Investing
Sometimes an investing approach that is not necessarily "rational" from an economic perspective can...
a year ago
Sometimes an investing approach that is not necessarily "rational" from an economic perspective can produce superior results when one accounts for human nature.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #162
Volcker on inflation, Parametric insurance, The futility of guidance, Corporate governance reform,...
a year ago
Volcker on inflation, Parametric insurance, The futility of guidance, Corporate governance reform, Keeping a notebook, Singleton and Teledyne, The pros and cons of cancer screening
Mazdak
How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their...
a year ago
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their tax liabilities. One such method, known as transfer pricing, has become increasingly prevalent in recent years, raising concerns about fairness and equity in the global tax...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #195
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
8 months ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
Musings on Markets
META Lesson 3: Tell me a story!
In my first two posts on Facebook, I noted that its most recent earnings report, and the market...
over a year ago
In my first two posts on Facebook, I noted that its most recent earnings report, and the market reaction to it, offers an opportunity for us to talk about bigger issues. I started by examining corporate governance, or its absence, and argued that some of the frustration that...
The Rational Walk
Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023)
A life well lived
a year ago
Commoncog
How to Become Data Driven
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious...
a year ago
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious than you might think.
Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
2 months ago
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
Moneyness
Why I'm in favor of financial illiteracy
I'm not a fan of mandatory investor education classes. The issue was brought up recently by former...
8 months ago
I'm not a fan of mandatory investor education classes. The issue was brought up recently by former chair of FDIC, Sheila Bair, who sees such classes as ways to stop future FTX-style disasters.
The model of finance I've been using for many years is the fairly dismal dark forest...
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 2
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts...
a year ago
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts before reading this one. When using linear and logistic regression, which involve just a single linear equation, calculating derivatives is easy since there is only one equation...
balajis.com
#5 - India's Largest Exit
Listen now (161 min) | The $16B acquisition of Flipkart was the largest in Indian tech history....
a year ago
Listen now (161 min) | The $16B acquisition of Flipkart was the largest in Indian tech history. Balaji speaks with Flipkart founder/CEO Binny Bansal on how he built the company from scratch when Indian startups weren't even a thing — and how Flipkart's rise parallels the rise of...
The Rational Walk
Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on...
7 months ago
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on education, ethics, religion, and many other subjects.
balajis.com
The Network State Book
A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder...
over a year ago
A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder on Amazon.
Mazdak
Interest Rates Dip, But Will Demand Follow?
As the housing market continues its dynamic dance, a recent drop in interest rates presents a...
a year ago
As the housing market continues its dynamic dance, a recent drop in interest rates presents a curious conundrum. While the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for qualifying loans sunk to 6.83%, purchase applications surprisingly declined 1%. This begs the question:
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
8 months ago
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
The Diff
Infrastructure on top of Infrastructure
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous...
5 days ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous Consumption Baskets as Subtle Union-Busting; Second-Order Effects
FIRE v London
Mayday for IBKR margin lending
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No...
a year ago
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No longer. If you’ve read my other posts (like this or this or this) on margin lending, and are interested in exploring further, make you read this post before you do. Why I used to like...
Commoncog
The Hospitality Solution in Your Business
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve...
3 months ago
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve (certain) business problems with hospitality, and that it only takes a little thoughtfulness to do so.
Mazdak
Netflix Discontinues Basic Plan in Canada
Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it...
a year ago
Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it plans to discontinue the plan altogether, but it is no longer available to new or rejoining members. The Basic plan was the most affordable option for Netflix subscribers in Canada,...
Moneyness
China is slowly joining the economic war against Russia
I recently shared a chart on Twitter showing Chinese exports of ball bearings to Russia. Here it...
4 months ago
I recently shared a chart on Twitter showing Chinese exports of ball bearings to Russia. Here it is:
Having accelerated after Putin's invasion of Ukraine to a run-rate of around US$5-7 million per month in 2023, Chinese ball bearing exports to Russia have been ratcheted down...
Commoncog
Understand the Shape of the Game You're Playing
What it looks like when you come up with a diagnosis for your business, a thing that is necessary...
a year ago
What it looks like when you come up with a diagnosis for your business, a thing that is necessary for strategy.
Farnam Street
Evaluating Information: Find the Signal in the Noise
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what...
over a year ago
We are drowning in information. Most of that information is irrelevant. If only we could sort what matters from what doesn’t. The good news is that you can train your brain to evaluate the quality of information. Not only can you quickly determine if someone knows what they are...
Moneyness
Thoughts on Privacy Pools and the law
Here's my quick first-pass take on Privacy Pools, the heir apparent to privacy tool Tornado Cash. My...
a year ago
Here's my quick first-pass take on Privacy Pools, the heir apparent to privacy tool Tornado Cash. My comments are on the legal side, and less so the technical side, although the two aren't mutually exclusive.
I've already written a bunch of times about Tornado Cash on this blog....
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.4% to 3.1%
From Goldman:
Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4%...
2 days ago
From Goldman:
Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3% [Dec 20th estimate]
emphasis added
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model...
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
9 months ago
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
Moneyness
Central bank digital currencies and the fallacy of immaculate adoption
I recently noticed that the Bank of Jamaica, Jamaica's central bank, has implemented two new...
a year ago
I recently noticed that the Bank of Jamaica, Jamaica's central bank, has implemented two new marketing strategies to drive adoption of its new central bank digital currency, Jam-Dex. Jam-Dex is one of only four operational central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in the world,...
balajis.com
#1 - Vitalik Buterin on Starting New Countries, Upgrading Ethereum, and Improving Yourself
Listen now (118 min) | A discussion between Vitalik Buterin and Balaji Srinivasan on starting new...
a year ago
Listen now (118 min) | A discussion between Vitalik Buterin and Balaji Srinivasan on starting new countries, improving yourself, and upgrading Ethereum. OUTLINE 00:00 - Introduction 01:27 - A brief history of Ethereum 16:54 - The DAO hack 20:32 - The Devcon 2 attack 33:24 - The...
balajis.com
Crypto Twitter Found SBF's Fraud
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
a year ago
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
Mazdak
2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to...
12 months ago
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to generate human-quality text, while chipmaker Nvidia pushed the boundaries of what's possible with graphics processing units (GPUs). But amidst the hype, there were also concerns about...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2023: The Earnings Test
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to...
a year ago
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside. During the course of the year, investors also...
Mazdak
Commercial vs. Residential Real Estate: Which One Is Right for You?
Investing in real estate can be a great way to build wealth and generate passive income. But which...
a year ago
Investing in real estate can be a great way to build wealth and generate passive income. But which type of real estate is right for you? Commercial or residential? In this blog post, we will compare and contrast commercial and residential real estate, and help you decide which...
Commoncog
Building a Valuable Business? It's How You Spend It That Matters
The skill of capital allocation — a mysterious, under-discussed element of remarkable business...
a year ago
The skill of capital allocation — a mysterious, under-discussed element of remarkable business performance.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Canvas
Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs...
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs of putting down his paintbrush anytime soon.
Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
over a year ago
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
The Rational Walk
The Oresteia
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery,...
6 months ago
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery, mankind finds its way toward due process and justice.
Farnam Street
Learning Through Play
Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind...
over a year ago
Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind leads us to find new information, better understand our own capabilities, and find unexpected beauty around us. Arithmetic is one example of an area we can explore through play....
Calculated Risk
December 13th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Mazdak
Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market?
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more...
8 months ago
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more pressing than ever. Soaring property values and rising interest rates have created a complex landscape, leaving many wondering: is homeownership still the golden ticket to building...
Mazdak
The Psychology of Investing: 5 Critical Traps That Can Destroy Your Wealth
The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising...
a month ago
The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising portfolios into cautionary tales.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: "Home ATM" Mostly Closed
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Part 1:...
a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
2nd...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
8 months ago
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
a year ago
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
The Rational Walk
The Odyssey
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
7 months ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in...
9 months ago
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in the game, repurchase activity, and stock based compensation.
Commoncog
Strong at Capital, Bad at Everything Else
Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but...
a year ago
Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but weak in just about everything else.
Full Width 
Shortcuts 
Sign Up 
Log In 
Articles 
Reading List 