The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Kotkin, Luttwak, Poker, DRW, PCs, Statistics, AI, Hamilton
a month ago
Kotkin, Luttwak, Poker, DRW, PCs, Statistics, AI, Hamilton
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: PPI
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week
The...
a week ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week
The more important consideration is the new round of potential volatility on the horizon. Whereas it was the jobs report last week, this week's critical data will be Wednesday's Consumer...
Calculated Risk
Monday: Pending Home Sales
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for...
3 weeks ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December.
Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index.
Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last of regional...
Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
3 months ago
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
The Rational Walk
A Mind at Play
Claude Shannon is most famous for his groundbreaking work related to information theory, one of many...
a year ago
Claude Shannon is most famous for his groundbreaking work related to information theory, one of many subjects discussed in his fascinating biography.
Calculated Risk
January 3rd COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
balajis.com
Going Meta
Meta may be Android to Apple's Apple.
a year ago
Meta may be Android to Apple's Apple.
Moneyness
Even crypto mixing deserves a threshold
Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically...
a year ago
Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically record and report our transactions to law enforcement. The logic behind this is that by giving up our personal data, we get more security, albeit at the cost of 1) losing our privacy,...
Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
a year ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
Citation Needed
Issue 69 – Nice
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also,...
2 months ago
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also, election spending hits a fever pitch, with several new crypto PACs coming out of the woodwork.
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual...
5 days ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,499,000. This is 15.8 percent above the revised November estimate of 1,294,000, but is 4.4 percent below the December 2023 rate of 1,568,000. Single-family housing starts...
Mazdak
5 Sneaky Financial Traps Sabotaging Your Middle-Class Dream (and How to Escape Them)
In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth...
a year ago
In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth amidst rising costs and shifting landscapes requires careful navigation, avoiding insidious traps that can derail your financial goals. This newsletter identifies
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q3 Flow of Funds
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly...
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week.
Producer Price Index for November from the BLS. The...
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
5 months ago
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
Mazdak
Meta's Shifting Approach to Politics and Content Moderation
Meta is backtracking on its political content policy.
2 weeks ago
Meta is backtracking on its political content policy.
The Diff
Meta's Least-Untrusted Clone Model
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More...
a month ago
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More YouTube AI IP
Farnam Street
Reciprocity: Getting What You Give
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics,...
over a year ago
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics, Chemistry and Biology Reciprocity teaches us why win-win relationships are the way to go, why waiters leave candies with the bill, why it’s a good idea to use the least force possible...
Citation Needed
AI isn't useless. But is it worth it?
AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
9 months ago
AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
Mazdak
The Rise of Nvidia and the Fall of Intel
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its...
2 months ago
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its influence in the tech world.
The Rational Walk
Too Clever by Half!
The temptation to trade in the stock market can be overwhelming, especially when prices are moving...
11 months ago
The temptation to trade in the stock market can be overwhelming, especially when prices are moving quickly. It's useful to ask, "What would Charlie Munger say?"
The Rational Walk
A Quarter Century of Investing
Lessons learned from a quarter century of active investing, along with annual performance...
2 weeks ago
Lessons learned from a quarter century of active investing, along with annual performance statistics.
Citation Needed
Issue 51 – It's quiet... too quiet
It's been a quiet few weeks in the world of crypto disasters... too quiet.
11 months ago
It's been a quiet few weeks in the world of crypto disasters... too quiet.
FIRE v London
From ISA $millionaire to £millionaire
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put...
5 months ago
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put £20k per year into an ISA account – use it for a wide range of investing activities – and not even have to report on what happens in those accounts, let alone pay tax on them.…...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage purchase applications index.
ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 143,000, down from 146,000 jobs added in...
Mazdak
Can Google’s Gemini Overtake ChatGPT in the AI Race?
Google’s Gemini, the tech giant’s flagship AI chatbot, has been making headlines lately.
6 days ago
Google’s Gemini, the tech giant’s flagship AI chatbot, has been making headlines lately.
Commoncog
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota on Human-AI Symbiosis
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented...
a week ago
Lia DiBello and Neil Sahota join Cedric Chin to talk about a human-first, expertise-oriented approach to AI in real world domains.
FIRE v London
10 year review
Wahoop! I have made it through ten years. In fact, I’ve had a trackable portfolio for over 20 years....
over a year ago
Wahoop! I have made it through ten years. In fact, I’ve had a trackable portfolio for over 20 years. But 10 years ago I started tracking my portfolio in a consistent, monthly way – unitising its performance so I could measure its return. It wasn’t until 2015 that I started this...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 3
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies...
a year ago
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies during the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s is a perfect case study.
Mazdak
TikTok, Netflix, and the Future of Media: Key Insights from 2024's Biggest Winners
In 2024, the global media landscape experienced monumental shifts, with platforms like TikTok and...
yesterday
In 2024, the global media landscape experienced monumental shifts, with platforms like TikTok and Netflix setting unprecedented benchmarks in user engagement, ad revenue, and growth.
Moneyness
The first round of U.S. secondary sanctions on Russia is working
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing...
11 months ago
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing payments for a narrow range of products that are on a so-called "green list," reports Ragip Soylu. This broad debanking of Russia by Turkey is part of the fallout from President...
FIRE v London
Aug ’23: …
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One...
a year ago
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One was the death of Russian mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin – a larger-than-life modern day warlord, responsible for the ‘little green men’ at the start of the Russian/Ukraine war in 2014,...
Moneyness
Where now FedNow?
Earlier this month the Federal Reserve introduced its new instant retail payments system, FedNow....
a year ago
Earlier this month the Federal Reserve introduced its new instant retail payments system, FedNow. This is actually the U.S.'s second real-time retail settlement system. The first, The Clearing House's Real Time Payments Network, or RTP, opened for business back in 2017.
As FedNow...
Commoncog
Marvel Studios’s Origin Story
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of...
a year ago
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of superb capital expertise in action.
Commoncog
Tacit Expertise Extraction, Software Engineering Edition
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior...
11 months ago
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior software engineers'. Useful to anyone who might want to accelerate their own skills.
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not?
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
over a year ago
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a heatmap.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #164
Howard Marks on intelligent risks, Li Lu's amazing life story, Damodaran on streaming, Thompson on...
a year ago
Howard Marks on intelligent risks, Li Lu's amazing life story, Damodaran on streaming, Thompson on Charter vs. Disney, Taleb's favorite literary works, Buffett's Japanese investments, and more ...
Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
8 months ago
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #175
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount...
a year ago
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount rates, Evolving moats, Jay Gould, Garry Tan, Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Steve Ells
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 Results — Manufacturing, Service, and Retailing
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on...
a year ago
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on results in Q3 2023 as well as a longer term view.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #208
Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs...
6 months ago
Biden's Withdrawal and Limits of Gaslighting, The CrowdStrike Crash, Munger and Franklin, Steve Jobs in 1983, Microsoft deep dive, Marks on risk, Luca Delanna on ergodicity, Guadalcanal
Mazdak
DOJ Breaks Up Google, Elden Ring Sold, and Windows Goes Meta
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will...
2 months ago
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will the internet ever be the same?
Commoncog
An Increase in Membership Prices
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old...
a year ago
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
Citation Needed
When did cryptocurrency policy become a voter issue?
I don’t believe that it has.
5 months ago
I don’t believe that it has.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 21 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
3 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 21 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 21 December. ...
15-21 December 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):
Occupancy:...
Mazdak
How to Use Pain to Fuel Your Personal Evolution
Pain is inevitable, especially if you're chasing ambitious goals. But what if I told you that pain...
a year ago
Pain is inevitable, especially if you're chasing ambitious goals. But what if I told you that pain can be a powerful tool for personal evolution? When you're feeling pain, it's a sign that you need to find a solution. This is an opportunity to learn and grow. If you can develop a...
Citation Needed
Issue 70 – The Cryptocurrency States of America
Crypto’s efforts to buy the 2024 elections paid off, and we’re in for a bumpy ride.
2 months ago
Crypto’s efforts to buy the 2024 elections paid off, and we’re in for a bumpy ride.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #202
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter...
7 months ago
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter syndrome, Decline of higher education, Howard Schultz, Cathie Wood, Robert Hagstrom
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024
A brief excerpt:
Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
The Rational Walk
Dollar General: Value or Value Trap?
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some...
a year ago
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some initial thoughts about the company as well as the overall retail landscape.
Mazdak
Buffett's $325 Billion Warning
Is the legendary investor Warren Buffett sounding the alarm on the market? Berkshire Hathaway,...
2 months ago
Is the legendary investor Warren Buffett sounding the alarm on the market? Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett's company, is sitting on a record $325 billion in cash after selling off major chunks of Apple and Bank of America stock.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 7 for 2023: Dividends, Buybacks and Cash Flows
This is the last of my data update posts for 2023, and in this one, I will focus on dividends and...
a year ago
This is the last of my data update posts for 2023, and in this one, I will focus on dividends and buybacks, perhaps the most most misunderstood and misplayed element of corporate finance. To illustrate the heat that buybacks evoke, consider two stories in the last two weeks where...
The Rational Walk
Free Articles!
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
9 months ago
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
Bits about Money
Markets in power
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
over a year ago
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
7 months ago
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
Calculated Risk
Monday Night Futures
Tuesday:
Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair...
2 days ago
Tuesday:
Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair value).
balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
a year ago
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
Bits about Money
Improving how credit cards work under the covers
Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can...
a year ago
Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can be fixed. Stripe provides examples.
Mazdak
A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the...
a year ago
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the economy that remains ill: the office sector of the U.S. commercial real-estate market. ** What's the Problem?** Hybrid/remote work: What began as a two-week work-from-home...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates 25bp
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp...
a month ago
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. However, most market participants now expect the FOMC to pause in January and are split on a rate cut at the March...
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Mostly Unchanged in November
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:
Construction spending...
2 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:
Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November...
balajis.com
The Mirrortable
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and...
over a year ago
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and internationalize the logistical mess of angel investing.
The Rational Walk
Paid Subscriptions
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
9 months ago
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
Commoncog
The Limits of Operational Excellence
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven,...
9 months ago
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven, achieve operational excellence, and die, and others acquire Process Power and win?
Commoncog
How to Use Power
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect...
a month ago
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect yourself against them? Part two of three in a series on power in business.
Mazdak
Nvidia Takes the Crown: The AI Chip Giant Dethrones Apple
Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
2 months ago
Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
a year ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
Commoncog
Colin Bryar on the practice of Amazon's Weekly Business Review
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of...
a year ago
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of Amazon's secret operational weapons: the Weekly Business Review.
Moneyness
Who should pay for scams? Victims or their banks?
Scam call centre on CCTV, via BBC.
Here's a question for you. Should banks be required to...
a year ago
Scam call centre on CCTV, via BBC.
Here's a question for you. Should banks be required to reimburse customers who have been scammed?
I was recently reading a CBC article about a 63-year old Toronto man who responded to a phone call from a scammer claiming to be a Bank of...
Calculated Risk
December 27th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
over a year ago
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
Moneyness
How PayPal can use stablecoins to avoid AML requirements and make big profits
There's a new financial loophole in town: stablecoins. Stablecoins are dollar, yen, or pound-based...
10 months ago
There's a new financial loophole in town: stablecoins. Stablecoins are dollar, yen, or pound-based payments platforms that are built using crypto database technology.
Financial institutions are always looking for loopholes to game the system. Typically this has meant avoiding...
Citation Needed
Issue 47 – Residual garbage
All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
a year ago
All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
Calculated Risk
Ten Economic Questions for 2025
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024.
I'll follow up with some thoughts on each...
a month ago
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024.
I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions.
We can assume the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will be extended. That larger tariffs will be imposed on some imports, and there will be some...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Equilibrium
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
9 months ago
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier post first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium, oscillation,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #174
Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions,...
a year ago
Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions, The AI Gold Rush, 100th anniversary of Hitler's beer hall putsch, The Federalist Papers
Mazdak
The Dangers of AI "Answers"
From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring...
a month ago
From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring the lines between fact and fiction.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
A brief excerpt:
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November, up 3.3% from October’s preliminary pace and up 4.6% from...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2024: Interest Rates in 2023 - A Rule-breaking Year!
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the...
12 months ago
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery. In this post, I look at interest rates,...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025
Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in...
2 weeks ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025
Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs?
Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?
Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500...
Mazdak
X's Ad Business Faces Its Toughest Challenge Yet
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are...
a year ago
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are suspending ad spending on the platform. This comes in response to owner Elon Musk's endorsement of an antisemitic post, as well as to a report by Media Matters For America that...
Commoncog
Executing on Becoming Data Driven: The Technicals
A technical overview of how I'm applying the methods and ideas of the Becoming Data Driven in...
a year ago
A technical overview of how I'm applying the methods and ideas of the Becoming Data Driven in Business series.
Commoncog
When Action Beats Prediction
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ......
a year ago
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ... isn't. What a theory of expertise in entrepreneurship tells us about creating new things in business.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #195
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
10 months ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
The Rational Walk
Concentrated Investments
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the...
a year ago
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the company. What are the risks of concentrated investments in general and Berkshire in particular?
Mazdak
How Long (and Why) You Must Keep Every Business Record 🇨🇦
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable...
12 months ago
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable records. This isn't just about staying organized; it's about complying with the law, managing your finances, and protecting yourself from audits. But with so many rules and regulations,...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Linear Algebra
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life....
8 months ago
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my previous posts first to gain a solid understanding on how to model dynamic systems. This post focuses on how linear algebra is employed in modeling dynamic...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
4 days ago
Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
Citation Needed
25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious...
9 months ago
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious crime."
The Diff
The Economics of Logos
Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost...
a week ago
Plus! Elsewhere in Reputation Markets; Knocking Down Data Walls; Closing the Arbitrage; Cost Avoidance; State AI Investment
Citation Needed
Elon Musk and the right’s war on Wikipedia
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part...
2 weeks ago
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part of an intensifying campaign against free and open access information.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #163
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's...
a year ago
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's future, Nvidia, AI, Interpreting medical studies, Why Doomberg left Twitter, Jimmy Buffett, and more...
Mazdak
Anthropic's AI Breakthrough & Boeing's Q3 Disaster
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases...
2 months ago
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases mind-blowing new capabilities.
Mazdak
Big Tech Donating to Trump's Inaugural Fund, Teens' Online Habits, More Tech Updates
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on...
a month ago
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on Prime Video 😀
Moneyness
After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the...
a month ago
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the topic starting with my first post in October 2012. Since then I've written 109 posts on the Moneyness Blog that reference bitcoin, along with a few dozen articles at venues like...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests
Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and...
3 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and now is the sole owner of the energy company.
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000
The DOL reported:
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
a month ago
The DOL reported:
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
Mazdak
More Creators Can Now Make Money on YouTube
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out...
a year ago
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out Vision for the Platform. YouTube Makes It Easier for Small Creators to Earn Money YouTube is lowering the eligibility requirements for creators to make money from their channels....
Citation Needed
Not just one bad apple: FTX's practices were business as usual in crypto
Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret...
3 weeks ago
Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret acquisitions of “grey area” businesses, buying influence, and creative accounting.
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?)
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
a month ago
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest
MBA Weekly...
2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest
MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two
weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week...
The Rational Walk
Roth IRA Conversions For Early Retirees
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and...
3 months ago
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and avoid falling into a high tax bracket.
Mazdak
The Future of TikTok in the U.S.: What Happens on January 19?
The fate of TikTok in the United States hangs in the balance as we approach January 19.
5 days ago
The fate of TikTok in the United States hangs in the balance as we approach January 19.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #201
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
7 months ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
Moneyness
Your finances are being snooped on. Here's how
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite...
6 months ago
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite able to articulate how. We know that we're being snooped on by two groups, corporations and the government. This post will focus on how the government snoops on our transactions,...
Citation Needed
Fighting for our web
A talk from XOXO
3 months ago
Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
a year ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence "Edges Up" in January
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47,...
6 days ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47, up from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
Builder Confidence Edges Up Even as Market Risk Concerns...
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
10 months ago
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
Farnam Street
Learning Through Play
Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind...
over a year ago
Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind leads us to find new information, better understand our own capabilities, and find unexpected beauty around us. Arithmetic is one example of an area we can explore through play....
Farnam Street
Let Go of the Learning Baggage
We all want to learn better. That means retaining information, processing it, being able to use it...
over a year ago
We all want to learn better. That means retaining information, processing it, being able to use it when needed. More knowledge means better instincts; better insights into opportunities for both you and your organization. You will ultimately produce better work if you give...
Mazdak
The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large....
9 months ago
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large. Enter the 4% rule, a popular guideline that suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and adjust for inflation thereafter. But is it a guaranteed...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 6 for 2023: A Wake up call for the Indebted?
We have an uneasy relationship with debt, both in our personal and business lives. While it is a...
a year ago
We have an uneasy relationship with debt, both in our personal and business lives. While it is a financial decision, it is one that is freighted with moral overtones, since almost every religion inveighs against debt's sins, labeling those who lend as sinners and those who borrow...
Mazdak
TFSA 2025: Your Complete Guide to Tax-Free Savings in Canada
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to...
a month ago
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to be a bright spot for Canadian investors.
Moneyness
Why I'm in favor of financial illiteracy
I'm not a fan of mandatory investor education classes. The issue was brought up recently by former...
9 months ago
I'm not a fan of mandatory investor education classes. The issue was brought up recently by former chair of FDIC, Sheila Bair, who sees such classes as ways to stop future FTX-style disasters.
The model of finance I've been using for many years is the fairly dismal dark forest...
Commoncog
Focus Doesn't Mean Doing One Thing at a Time
Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time....
over a year ago
Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time. This is what focus looks like at an organisational level, told through the story of a business turnaround and the Marine Corps approach to war.
The Rational Walk
Endurance
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived...
12 months ago
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived shipwreck, ice floes, and constant danger.
Citation Needed
Follow the Crypto
FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024...
6 months ago
FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024 elections in the United States.
Commoncog
The Skill of Capital
What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk...
a year ago
What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk through three stories, and then talk about the shape of the skill in practice.
Citation Needed
Issue 58 – Threats to the stability and integrity of Ethereum
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's...
8 months ago
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's creditors, and Biden threatens a crypto veto.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #223
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected...
2 months ago
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, Market Prices as Political Predictors, The Three Indias, Semiconductor Progress
Moneyness
Why do sanctioned entities use Tether?
Tether, a stablecoin, has been in the news for offering sanctioned actors such as Hamas a means to...
a year ago
Tether, a stablecoin, has been in the news for offering sanctioned actors such as Hamas a means to participate in the global payments ecosystem.
In this post I want to explore in more depth how Tether is being used to dodge sanctions. I'm going to avoid drawing on the Hamas...
The Rational Walk
Poor Charlie’s Almanack
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five...
9 months ago
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five psychological tendencies that can cause human misjudgment.
Mazdak
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Advertising Monopoly.
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. iPhone 15 Pro Max: Everything We Know So Far About...
a year ago
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. iPhone 15 Pro Max: Everything We Know So Far About Apple's Next Flagship. Reddit Protests Continue as Company Threatens to Remove Moderators. Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. Gannett, the largest U.S. newspaper chain, has...
balajis.com
The Balaji Newsletter
A single place for all updates at balajis.com
a year ago
A single place for all updates at balajis.com
Moneyness
It's time to get rid of "crypto"
Call me a pedant, but I'm not a fan of the word "crypto". It may have been a serviceable category...
10 months ago
Call me a pedant, but I'm not a fan of the word "crypto". It may have been a serviceable category back in 2011 when there was only one type of crypto thingy – bitcoin. But it's ceased to be a meaningful term and, if anything, it causes a regression in understanding.
Source:...
The Rational Walk
In the Zone
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to...
8 months ago
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to provide valuable insights about our health.
Citation Needed
Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely...
5 months ago
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely prohibited from making its $25 million contribution to the Fairshake crypto super PAC in May 2024.
Calculated Risk
Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
3 weeks ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #192
Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS,...
10 months ago
Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS, The bear case for China, Chris Davis, Michael Mauboussin
The Rational Walk
The Digest #171
American Prometheus, Buffett buys more OXY, Share repurchases, Lessons from Todd Combs, The nature...
a year ago
American Prometheus, Buffett buys more OXY, Share repurchases, Lessons from Todd Combs, The nature of risk, Damodaran on markets, Keynes on the Treaty of Versailles, Attia on longevity
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
a year ago
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
Mazdak
OpenAI in Turmoil: Altman and Brockman Join Microsoft, Employees Revolt
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the...
a year ago
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the non-profit research company behind groundbreaking artificial intelligence advancements, are joining Microsoft to lead a new research unit. This move comes after failed talks to reinstate...
FIRE v London
Sep ’24: Ominous politics, juicy economics
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the...
3 months ago
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the Solent. I made it to the Labour party conference in Liverpool, which was fascinating albeit wet. I am apparently firmly in the tax-raising sights of the Government, but I wasn’t the...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2024: Profitability - The End Game for Business?
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free...
11 months ago
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the...
The Rational Walk
The Limits of an Inner Scorecard
Having an "inner scorecard" can be liberating and foster independent thinking, but ultimately human...
a year ago
Having an "inner scorecard" can be liberating and foster independent thinking, but ultimately human beings must also subject themselves to the judgment of key people in their lives.
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on Learning
I was learning how to program during the mid to late 90s. Finding learning material in a world...
a year ago
I was learning how to program during the mid to late 90s. Finding learning material in a world without the Internet, Google, and YouTube was incredibly challenging. I struggled to understand how pointers in C worked. Yashavant Kanetkar’s Understanding Pointers in C book helped me...
Calculated Risk
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
A brief excerpt:
We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
4 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth
From housing economist Tom Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Incorporate Revised Methodology for Estimating Net International Migration, Show...
FIRE v London
Feb ’23: taking profits
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling...
a year ago
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling up again, post covid, though Mondays and Fridays remain subdued to put it mildly. Market movements in February In the markets, February started strongly, but then something...
Mazdak
Information Overload? Don't Be Fooled!
In today's world of instant access and information overload, we often find ourselves bombarded with...
a year ago
In today's world of instant access and information overload, we often find ourselves bombarded with conflicting opinions and dubious advice. It can be a challenge to distinguish genuine expertise from misleading claims and unqualified opinions. This issue of our newsletter offers...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier...
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Friday:
Employment Report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%.
University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
a year ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
balajis.com
Crypto Twitter Found SBF's Fraud
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
a year ago
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
Moneyness
Inflation as a tax
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order...
a year ago
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order to fight his wars. This provided Henry with the financial firepower to annex the city of Boulogne from the French in 1544, albeit at the price of England experiencing one of its...
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 16th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 26.6% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now...
a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now 7.7% below the peak for the year (8 weeks ago).
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried: guilty on all charges
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
a year ago
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
Mazdak
Anthropic's AI Breakthrough & Boeing's Q3 Disaster
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases...
2 months ago
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases mind-blowing new capabilities.
Mazdak
OpenAI's Meltdown: A Fight for the Future of AI
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching...
a year ago
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching implications for the future of artificial intelligence (AI). OpenAI, known for its groundbreaking ChatGPT technology, is considered a frontrunner in the AI race, and its fate could...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: around 2.4%
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter...
2 weeks ago
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3%. [Jan 2nd estimate]
emphasis added
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth...
Mazdak
How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their...
a year ago
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their tax liabilities. One such method, known as transfer pricing, has become increasingly prevalent in recent years, raising concerns about fairness and equity in the global tax...
Citation Needed
Issue 61 – Soft war by the enemy
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the...
6 months ago
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the crypto lobby, and some new regulatory actions.
balajis.com
Only Newsom Can Go To China
If Nixon and Mao came to an accord, so might Newsom and Xi.
a year ago
If Nixon and Mao came to an accord, so might Newsom and Xi.
Calculated Risk
Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 weeks ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in December; Core CPI increased 0.2%
From the BLS:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a...
a week ago
From the BLS:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis
in December, after rising 0.3 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the
last 12 months, the all items index...
The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
11 months ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
a year ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Mazdak
Used Car Prices Drop: Should You Buy Now or Wait for Better Deals?
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has...
a year ago
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has begun to exhibit signs of a significant shift. Prices are now decelerating, presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers. This article delves into the key factors driving...
balajis.com
The Fiat Crisis
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
a year ago
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
Moneyness
When is a stablecoin a security? The strange case of Binance and BUSD
The SEC has been hinting for several years that stablecoins may be securities. I've always found the...
a year ago
The SEC has been hinting for several years that stablecoins may be securities. I've always found the idea of regulating stablecoins as securities to be a bit odd. No one who buys a stablecoin expects to make a profit. That's because none of the big stablecoins (Tether, BUSD, or...
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked...
11 months ago
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked spectacularly well. Will Berkshire's playbook continue to perform well in the future?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #197
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
9 months ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
The Rational Walk
Biden’s Withdrawal and the Limits of Gaslighting
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the...
6 months ago
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the Democratic Party and allies in the mainstream media.
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
10 months ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts Down 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Housing...
4 days ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December
Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December
Part 1: Current...
Commoncog
What To Think When Looking at a Chart
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb...
a year ago
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb question that nobody seems to talk about.
Mazdak
The $50 Billion TikTok Dilemma: ByteDance’s Next Move in the U.S.
In the world of social media, few platforms have experienced a meteoric rise like TikTok.
a week ago
In the world of social media, few platforms have experienced a meteoric rise like TikTok.
Mazdak
AI Fuels Alphabet's Growth
Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
2 months ago
Google's parent company Alphabet is on a roll, and AI is the fuel.
Seeking Wisdom
Case for indexing
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In...
a year ago
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In 1989, 65% of the top 20 global companies were domiciled in Japan. After three decades, 65% of the top 20 global companies are from the US. No companies from Japan made into the top...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
2 weeks ago
Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
Mazdak
In the AI Race: Embrace Commoditization, Focus on Customer Value
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for...
a year ago
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for attention and a slice of the market pie. In this competitive environment, it's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of proprietary components and cutting-edge algorithms,...
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
a year ago
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #209
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
5 months ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
Mazdak
Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀
a year ago
Citation Needed
Wind the clock
A message to those asking “what do I do now?”
2 months ago
A message to those asking “what do I do now?”
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Moody's:...
a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
Update: The...
Commoncog
The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same...
a year ago
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same time? Deming — who came up with these data techniques — believe that it is possible. I'm not so sure.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger...
2 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales
Fannie and Freddie: Single...
Mazdak
The 7 Steps to Becoming a Top Investor
Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going...
a year ago
Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going to share with you the seven steps that I believe are essential for becoming a top investor. Step 1: Develop a Clear Investment Philosophy The first step to becoming a great...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates...
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday).
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were at 220 thousand last week.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #156
Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century...
a year ago
Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century anarchy, Buffett and Japan, Claude Hopkins, Benjamin Franklin
The Rational Walk
The Year in Review
Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
a year ago
Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
FIRE v London
May ’24: UK election called
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
7 months ago
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...
Mazdak
TFSA Talk: Unlocking Tax-Free Wealth 🇨🇦
Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
2 months ago
Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
Moneyness
Thoughts on Privacy Pools and the law
Here's my quick first-pass take on Privacy Pools, the heir apparent to privacy tool Tornado Cash. My...
a year ago
Here's my quick first-pass take on Privacy Pools, the heir apparent to privacy tool Tornado Cash. My comments are on the legal side, and less so the technical side, although the two aren't mutually exclusive.
I've already written a bunch of times about Tornado Cash on this blog....
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 217,000
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of
14,000 from the...
6 days ago
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of
14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 201,000 to
203,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous...
Moneyness
Central bank digital currencies and the fallacy of immaculate adoption
I recently noticed that the Bank of Jamaica, Jamaica's central bank, has implemented two new...
a year ago
I recently noticed that the Bank of Jamaica, Jamaica's central bank, has implemented two new marketing strategies to drive adoption of its new central bank digital currency, Jam-Dex. Jam-Dex is one of only four operational central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in the world,...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
9 months ago
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
Bits about Money
Credit card debt collection
Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being...
a year ago
Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being sordid, for complex structural and microeconomic reasons.
Moneyness
Will the digital euro be like cash?
The European Union published its proposal for a digital euro late last month, which will be issued...
a year ago
The European Union published its proposal for a digital euro late last month, which will be issued by the European Central Bank (ECB) if it goes ahead. There's plenty to digest in the 62-page document, but the one area I want to focus on in this post is privacy.
Digital euros...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #218
Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles,...
3 months ago
Books I read during Q3, Hurricane insurance claims, Berkshire's troubled railroad, Nike's troubles, Doing what you love, Human aging, Ray Ozzie on intelligent machines, Aesop's Fables
Musings on Markets
Beat your Bot: Building your moat against AI
It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest...
4 months ago
It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest mover, but Open AI introduced the world to ChatGPT on November 30, 2022. While ChatGPT itself represented a low-tech variation of AI, it opened the door to AI not only as a business...
Moneyness
Who are the money launderers in the Tornado Cash stack?
Over the last few years I've written a bunch of posts about Tornado Cash, an Ethereum-based mixing...
a year ago
Over the last few years I've written a bunch of posts about Tornado Cash, an Ethereum-based mixing service, because I find it to be a fascinating tool. With the recent indictment of two people involved in the Tornado Cash "stack" for money laundering, here's another post to add...
Mazdak
Choosing the Optimal Legal Structure for Your Small Business 🇨🇦
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate...
a year ago
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate legal framework can feel like traversing a complex maze. This guide sheds light on the merits and drawbacks of the three primary options: sole proprietorship, partnership, and...
FIRE v London
June ’23: The hottest ever
June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or...
a year ago
June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or (definitely) read the last of him but having him out of Westminster is at least a bit safer than him inside. Closer to (my Coastal Folly) home, there has been a sad story in...
Calculated Risk
1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024...
2 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006
A brief excerpt:
Although total housing starts decreased 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023, completions increased sharply...
Mazdak
Trudeau's resignation, Dana White joining Meta's board, YouTube taking on TikTok, SuperIntelligence...
After nearly a decade in leadership, Justin Trudeau announced his decision to step down as Prime...
2 weeks ago
After nearly a decade in leadership, Justin Trudeau announced his decision to step down as Prime Minister of Canada.
Mazdak
Canadian Mortgage Debt Growth Slows to Two-Decade Low, But Remains Elevated
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to...
a year ago
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to data from the Bank of Canada (BoC). However, mortgage debt growth remains historically high, despite the recent slowdown. The BoC's latest data shows that outstanding mortgage...
The Rational Walk
A Dangerous Interregnum
President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russian territory...
2 months ago
President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russian territory risks plunging the world into crisis in the finals months of his administration.
Moneyness
Top 13 blog posts
I've been writing on this blog for a while now – over ten years. Many of those posts are now...
a year ago
I've been writing on this blog for a while now – over ten years. Many of those posts are now forgotten (by myself included), but some were pretty popular at the time, and a few still get a steady stream of readers. Someone recently asked me for a list of my top ranked posts...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #216
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement",...
3 months ago
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement", Caro's writing process, Buffett's ground rules, Sherwin Williams, Mysterious owls
Musings on Markets
Market Bipolarity: Exuberance versus Exhaustion!
As we enter the last quarter of 2023, it has been a roller coaster of a year. We started the year...
a year ago
As we enter the last quarter of 2023, it has been a roller coaster of a year. We started the year with significant uncertainty about whether the surge in inflation seen in 2022 would persist as well as about whether the economy was headed into a recession. In the first half of...
Mazdak
Perplexity AI’s Bold Move to Merge with TikTok
As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a...
3 days ago
As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a surprising yet intriguing bidder to merge with TikTok US.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Trading, Money, Homemakers, Taxes, AI, Passive
a month ago
Trading, Money, Homemakers, Taxes, AI, Passive
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 6th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.3% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week.
Inventory will...
2 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week.
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click...
Mazdak
Playing it Safe Paid Off in 2023, But Now It's Time to Take More Risk with Your Money
2023 was a year of playing it safe for investors, with many flocking to the security and guaranteed...
a year ago
2023 was a year of playing it safe for investors, with many flocking to the security and guaranteed returns of cash and cash-like investments. This was largely driven by the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, which boosted the yields of money-market funds and similar...
Calculated Risk
December 20th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Commoncog
Data is an Added Sense
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in...
5 months ago
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in business.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
9 months ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
7 months ago
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
The Diff
Where do AI Agents Get Deployed First?
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
a month ago
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Canvas
Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs...
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs of putting down his paintbrush anytime soon.
FIRE v London
Becoming an ISA $millionaire
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until...
a year ago
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until using my full annual ISA allowance(s), which took me much longer than usual last year. This year I actually completed my ISA topups in April, within a few weeks of the start of the...
Musings on Markets
For the fun of it: An Open House for my Spring 2025 Classes
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me...
a month ago
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me in the classes that I teach at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Since I teach these classes only in the spring, and the first sessions for each of the classes...
Mazdak
Reddit CEO: Third-Party App Developers Have Made Millions, So They Should Pay for API Access
The Future of Third-Party Reddit Apps: Will They Survive the API Changes? Binance.US Lays Off 50...
a year ago
The Future of Third-Party Reddit Apps: Will They Survive the API Changes? Binance.US Lays Off 50 Employees After SEC Charges. Google Bans AI Chatbots to Protect Sensitive Information. The Future of Third-Party Reddit Apps: Will They Survive the API Changes?
Moneyness
AML works, even if it intercepts less than 1% of criminal proceeds. Here's how
Critics of anti-money laundering (AML) often point to the fact that just a tiny fraction of 1% of...
a year ago
Critics of anti-money laundering (AML) often point to the fact that just a tiny fraction of 1% of criminal proceeds are seized every year, their point being that AML is not working. Either update our approach to AML, they say, or just throw in the towel and legalize money...
FIRE v London
In praise of Berkshire Hathaway
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the...
12 months ago
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the year 2000. I loved the story. Starting from, as the story was told back then, humble beginnings and a paper round, Warren Buffett (and Charlie – who I will stop mentioning but...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 2023 Results
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices,...
a year ago
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices, Clayton Homes, Apple, and share repurchases.
Citation Needed
Issue 60 – Raging in favor of the machine
The crypto industry jumps on the Trump train.
7 months ago
The crypto industry jumps on the Trump train.
Citation Needed
We can have a different web
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
8 months ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
Musings on Markets
The School Bell Rings: Time for Class!
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting...
a year ago
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting in a couple of weeks, I would like to invite you, if you are interested, to come along for the ride. I know! I know! Most of you are not enrolled at NYU, paying nosebleed prices,...
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
The Diff
Credentialism and the Money Illusion
Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and...
2 weeks ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and Downside of Ads; Backcasting Returns
Citation Needed
Guilty or coerced? Ryan Salame’s last interviews before prison
Unpacking my conversation with FTX executive Ryan Salame, where we discussed his claims that he’s...
3 months ago
Unpacking my conversation with FTX executive Ryan Salame, where we discussed his claims that he’s innocent of the charges for which he’s now serving seven and a half years in prison.
Farnam Street
Language: Why We Hear More Than Words
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me...
over a year ago
It’s a classic complaint in relationships, especially romantic ones: “She said she was okay with me forgetting her birthday! Then why is she throwing dishes in the kitchen? Are the two things related? I wish I had a translator for my spouse. What is going on?” The answer: Extreme...
FIRE v London
June ’24: Election fever
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west...
6 months ago
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west country, the south coast and the Isle of Wight; partly overseas – I visited Ibiza for a few days of R&R. Meanwhile, the election campaigns were in full swing. Nigel Farage did his...
Citation Needed
Issue 68 – Opportunity agenda
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as...
3 months ago
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as another enters, and Stand With Crypto bets on the favorites.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Shanghai, Wrong, Returns, Nuclear, Employee Performance, Feedback Loops, Buffett
a month ago
Shanghai, Wrong, Returns, Nuclear, Employee Performance, Feedback Loops, Buffett
Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI)
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
11 months ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
4 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Rational Walk
Initial Public Offerings
A company that is in the process of selling shares to the public for the first time must navigate a...
a year ago
A company that is in the process of selling shares to the public for the first time must navigate a minefield of competing interests.
FIRE v London
Compounding, type II
Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of...
2 months ago
Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of compound annual growth rates is something I feel quite viscerally, the more so with each month that I track my portfolio. But I’ve been struck recently by a radical improvement in...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings, ISM Services
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week
The bond...
2 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week
The bond market and interest rates have arrived at the first full week of the new year almost exactly where they left off before the X-mas/New Year holiday weeks. ... Although the past 2...
Mazdak
Tesla's Trump Card: How a Presidency Could Fuel a Trillion-Dollar Boom
What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
2 months ago
What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
Commoncog
The Disaffected PhD Skunkworks: A Story About Process Improvement
A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service...
over a year ago
A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service at Amazon.
The Diff
Meme Markets
Plus! Equity Comp, Squared; Venture Debt; 5%; Crypto Leverage; Closed-End Funds
5 days ago
Plus! Equity Comp, Squared; Venture Debt; 5%; Crypto Leverage; Closed-End Funds
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
a year ago
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
Farnam Street
Why Write
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
a year ago
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
Seeking Wisdom
Ruturaj Gaikwad, P-value, and Bayes’ Theorem
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is...
8 months ago
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is my favorite team. Ruturaj Gaikwad, the new CSK captain for the IPL 2024 season, lost 10 out of 13 tosses: LLLLWLLLLLLWL. The probability of seeing the sequence LLLLWLLLLLLWL is...
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance)
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
6 months ago
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
The Rational Walk
Improving Disclosure for Public Companies
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing...
10 months ago
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing three simple proposals.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP, Existing Home Sales
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly...
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 232 thousand initial claims, down from 242 thousand last week.
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (Third...
Mazdak
Meta's Oakley Smart Glasses, TikTok's Revenue Nearly Doubled YouTube's Last Year, Hidden Hashtags on...
“What if Elon Musk or Larry Ellison bought TikTok?”
9 hours ago
“What if Elon Musk or Larry Ellison bought TikTok?”
The Diff
What Would it Look Like if The Pod Shop Model Blew Up?
Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
a month ago
Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income?
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
11 months ago
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
The Rational Walk
American Prometheus
The tragic story of J. Robert Oppenheimer encompasses far more than science and politics. It is a...
a year ago
The tragic story of J. Robert Oppenheimer encompasses far more than science and politics. It is a cautionary tale of human nature that holds timeless lessons.
Mazdak
Regulating Crypto
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end...
2 months ago
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end for crypto, or a necessary step towards mainstream adoption?
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Interest Rates Since the Federal Reserve Began Cutting Rates
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Click on graph for larger image.
10-Year T1PS Yield
4 weeks ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Click on graph for larger image.
10-Year T1PS Yield
The Rational Walk
The Odyssey
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
8 months ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
FIRE v London
Feeling broke
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is...
a year ago
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is captured in my monthly portfolio updates, I thought it was worth recording some of my emotions while they are still fresh. Two years ago Turning the clock back, my financial...
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
a year ago
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
Mazdak
Inflation finally chills out! Americans rejoice & recession whispers fade as prices dip and spending...
The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first...
a year ago
The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first decline since way back in 2020! This ain't no mirage, folks - inflation is cooling down, and the Fed's fight against skyrocketing prices is showing real results!
Moneyness
What does the recent ruling on the Emergencies Act mean for your banking rights?
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy...
11 months ago
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy protest in 2022 contravened the protestor's rights. In this post I want to provide my reading of this particular ruling and what is at stake for Canadians and their bank...
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
8 months ago
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
Mazdak
Canadian Real Estate Market Predictions for 2024
As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for...
a year ago
As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for investors. While the explosive growth of recent years is likely to abate, a multitude of factors will continue to shape the market's trajectory. Understanding these factors is crucial for...
Commoncog
High Roller: Lessons from America's Richest Banker
Andy Beal's story is an astounding story of capital allocation, incidentally making him America's...
a year ago
Andy Beal's story is an astounding story of capital allocation, incidentally making him America's richest banker. A guest post by Frederik Gieschen.
Mazdak
Tired of Chasing Leads? Elevate Your Value Proposition
Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
2 months ago
Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
Calculated Risk
Q3 GDP Growth Revised up to 3.1% Annual Rate
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP...
a month ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2024
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the "third" estimate...
Musings on Markets
Toys for Billionaires: Sports Franchises as Trophy Assets!
I have always loved sports, playing tennis and cricket when I was growing up, before transitioning...
a year ago
I have always loved sports, playing tennis and cricket when I was growing up, before transitioning to fan status, cheering for my favored teams from the sidelines. I also like finance, perhaps not as much as sports, but there are winners and losers in the investment game as well....
The Rational Walk
The Digest #203
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value...
7 months ago
American Scripture, Prometheus Bound, Herodotus on wealth, Apple intelligence, NetJets, Value Investor's Club, Nietzsche's world view, Are wrist watches effeminate?, Seinfeld on writing
The Rational Walk
The Digest #205
Books I read in Q2, Buffett's estate plan, The magic of compounding, How to read a book, Portfolio...
6 months ago
Books I read in Q2, Buffett's estate plan, The magic of compounding, How to read a book, Portfolio rebalancing, Ben Graham in 1955, Sam Walton, LBJ, Robert Moses, The origins of language
The Rational Walk
Buffett Continues to Avoid Long-Term Bonds
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to...
a year ago
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to higher interest rates.
Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
a year ago
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
Mazdak
Teens Obsessed with YouTube and TikTok: New Survey Reveals Usage Trends
Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew...
a year ago
Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew Research Center. This highlights the immense popularity of these video-streaming platforms among younger generations. Here are the key takeaways from the survey:
Calculated Risk
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
A brief...
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
A brief excerpt:
During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent...
Commoncog
Understand the Shape of the Game You're Playing
What it looks like when you come up with a diagnosis for your business, a thing that is necessary...
a year ago
What it looks like when you come up with a diagnosis for your business, a thing that is necessary for strategy.
Mazdak
Google Pays $700 Million to Settle App Store Antitrust Concerns
Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling...
a year ago
Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling a major antitrust lawsuit brought by a coalition of states. This landmark deal marks a significant victory for developers and consumers alike, potentially paving the way for a more...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #204
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing...
7 months ago
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing down time, Return of meme stocks, The U.S. Constitution, Gouverneur Morris, Cleopatra
The Rational Walk
Claim Checks
Viewing money as "claim checks" that can be exchanged for goods and services is a very useful...
6 months ago
Viewing money as "claim checks" that can be exchanged for goods and services is a very useful concept.
Mazdak
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
a year ago
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #161
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy...
a year ago
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy band-aid; Plus insights from Todd Combs, Michael Burry, Joel Tillinghast, and Lee Ainslie.
Commoncog
Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do...
11 months ago
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do it. This is everything you need to know to actually become data driven, from scratch, using the same first principles that Amazon, Koch, and Toyota used back in their day.
Moneyness
In praise of anti-money laundering thresholds
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money...
a year ago
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money laundering thresholds.
In the first story, the New York Times shows how regular folks are increasingly losing their bank accounts because their bank perceives them to be engaging in...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in...
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
NAR:...
a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Lawler:...
Seeking Wisdom
Buffett’s Bathtub Memory
I love reading physical books. But there’s one problem with physical books. My shelf space is...
over a year ago
I love reading physical books. But there’s one problem with physical books. My shelf space is limited. To overcome the shelf space limitation, I developed a simple fitness function for my books. Books that I won’t reread will be donated to the library. Don’t get me wrong. They...
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
a year ago
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
Moneyness
Memecoins are the point
Cypherpunks wanted to change the world. We ended up with memecoins.
Our story begins with some very...
2 months ago
Cypherpunks wanted to change the world. We ended up with memecoins.
Our story begins with some very smart and idealistic developers, known as cypherpunks, creating a new technology know as a blockchain. Blockchains are databases, but decentralized. Advertised as being...
Moneyness
Here’s why we tolerate fake check scams
Source: Better Business Bureau
The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad...
4 days ago
Source: Better Business Bureau
The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad experiences with banks. Here’s a recent example. In November 2024, a charity inadvertently accepted a fake check from a would-be donor.
The charity's bank allowed the charity to deposit...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night: Markets Closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025
US markets will be closed in observance of Martin...
2 days ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025
US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day
WTI futures at $77.88 per barrel and Brent at $80.79 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $74, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are up about 5%...
Mazdak
Today's Top Tech News - Amazon's Discount Store
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
2 months ago
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
Musings on Markets
Reaping the Whirlwind: A September 2022 Inflation Update!
In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just...
over a year ago
In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just starting to see could be explained by COVID and supply chain issues, prudence on the part of policy makers required that it be taken as a long term threat and dealt with quickly. Not...
Citation Needed
We need to talk about digital ownership
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually...
11 months ago
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually want.
The Diff
That Top-of-Cycle Feeling
Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
a month ago
Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter
Here are a few measures of inflation:
Click on graph for larger image.
Services were up 4.4% YoY as...
a week ago
Here are a few measures of inflation:
Click on graph for larger image.
Services were up 4.4% YoY as of December 2024, down from 4.5% YoY in November.
The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
The Rational Walk
Inflation Expectations
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers...
10 months ago
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers should pay close attention to Warren Buffett's statements and actions.
Mazdak
AI Gone Wrong? Can Chatbots Be Held Responsible for Suicide?
This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and...
2 months ago
This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and later died by suicide.
Commoncog
A Big Part of Being Data Driven is Will Not Skill
What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming...
6 months ago
What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming data driven in business more broadly.
Bits about Money
The infrastructure behind ATMs
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
over a year ago
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
Mazdak
How to Start a Cleaning Company Without Cleaning
The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion...
a year ago
The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion by 2026. This growth is being driven by a number of factors, including the increasing number of dual-income households, the growing popularity of Airbnb, and the rising demand for...
Citation Needed
Caroline Ellison: A woman with agency or a helpless pawn?
Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX...
3 months ago
Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX collapse?
Citation Needed
I am my own legal department: the promise and peril of “just go independent”
Independent publishing is one important facet of the media ecosystem, and while I love it, I know it...
2 months ago
Independent publishing is one important facet of the media ecosystem, and while I love it, I know it is not the path for everyone.
Citation Needed
Cryptocurrency companies have raised over $115 million to influence US elections this cycle, and...
As election season kicks into high gear, we need to watch how cryptocurrency companies are...
7 months ago
As election season kicks into high gear, we need to watch how cryptocurrency companies are influencing US politics.
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 23rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.2% Week-over-week, Up 26.3% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week. Inventory is now...
4 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week. Inventory is now 9.7% below the peak for the year (9 weeks ago).
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in January or February.
The first graph...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
11 months ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
The Rational Walk
The Digest #194
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation,...
10 months ago
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons of history
The Diff
What Would a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Actually Do?
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State:...
a month ago
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State: Beauty Filters Edition
Commoncog
Making Sense of Deming
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of...
10 months ago
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of the most powerful things you'll find on the Operations side of the business expertise triad. Read this, so you don't have to read multiple books to apply his ideas.
Seeking Wisdom
How a Machine Learns – Part 2
I’m truly impressed by how accurately LLMs grasp natural language and consistently provide spot-on...
a year ago
I’m truly impressed by how accurately LLMs grasp natural language and consistently provide spot-on answers. Through these posts, I’ll build a toy GPT from scratch using Python and unpack everything that goes inside the LLMs, including the math it uses. This is my third post on my...
The Rational Walk
Costco’s Director Compensation
Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a...
a year ago
Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a potential model for Berkshire Hathaway in the future.
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
9 months ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
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