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Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 201,000 This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported: emphasis added The...
a week ago
19
a week ago
This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Homebuider Survey Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
6 days ago
11
6 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 215 thousand from 201 thousand last week. Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released.  The...
Seeking Wisdom
A great investor is a great rejector I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for...
8 months ago
122
8 months ago
I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for example — I developed a stronger understanding and appreciation for it after reading the book Modeling Life. Similarly, the investing book What I Learned About Investing from Darwin...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #163 Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's...
a year ago
18
a year ago
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's future, Nvidia, AI, Interpreting medical studies, Why Doomberg left Twitter, Jimmy Buffett, and more...
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
a year ago
72
a year ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates 25bp Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.   However, most market participants now expect the FOMC to pause in January and are split on a rate cut at the March...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger...
2 weeks ago
17
2 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales Fannie and Freddie: Single...
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
3 weeks ago
17
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
The Rational Walk
Two Sides of the Same Coin Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the...
12 months ago
73
12 months ago
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the longer it will take to achieve financial independence.
Mazdak
The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large....
9 months ago
85
9 months ago
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large. Enter the 4% rule, a popular guideline that suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and adjust for inflation thereafter. But is it a guaranteed...
Moneyness
Bitcoin as a tool of U.S. economic statecraft Riot Platform's Rockdale, Texas facility, North America’s largest Bitcoin mining farm by developed...
6 months ago
77
6 months ago
Riot Platform's Rockdale, Texas facility, North America’s largest Bitcoin mining farm by developed capacity [source] Can a network that has been marketed as being resistant to government power be harnessed by the U.S. administrative state in order to attain its foreign policy...
FIRE v London
I’m 28, and can’t figure out how to start on FatFIRE – what would you do in my shoes? From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from...
7 months ago
89
7 months ago
From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from the London School of Economics in 2017 after which I went through the hardest few years of my life mentally and ended up unemployed or in dead-end low paid jobs. I currently work...
Mazdak
Canada's Retail Pulse: Holiday Shopping Season Navigates Mixed Signals Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday...
a year ago
45
a year ago
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday season. While October saw a surprising 0.7% increase in retail sales, exceeding economist expectations, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend in the face of rising...
Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024 A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
8 months ago
The Rational Walk
Will Progressive’s Growth Strategy Pay Off? The auto insurer continues to add customers but posted disappointing results in the second quarter...
a year ago
16
a year ago
The auto insurer continues to add customers but posted disappointing results in the second quarter due to catastrophe losses and inadequate pricing.
The Rational Walk
The Trust Deficit My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the...
6 months ago
79
6 months ago
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the urgent need to correct course.
Mazdak
Trudeau's resignation, Dana White joining Meta's board, YouTube taking on TikTok, SuperIntelligence... After nearly a decade in leadership, Justin Trudeau announced his decision to step down as Prime...
2 weeks ago
FIRE v London
Jan ’23: Mr Market defuses my tax bombshell January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during...
a year ago
55
a year ago
January is always a miserable month to be in London. Thankfully I managed to get away a bit during the month (not to Davos, no), and enjoy myself in London despite the wintry weather. What you’re paying for in Mayfair these days Market movements in January The markets on the...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Canvas Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs...
a year ago
26
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs of putting down his paintbrush anytime soon.
Mazdak
Inflation is Cooling Off: A Glimpse of Economic Stability ☀️ 📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic....
a year ago
33
a year ago
📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic. The moderation of inflation is a significant development that alleviates pressure on consumers and provides central banks with some breathing room. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's...
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 24.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always...
2 days ago
7
2 days ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If the previous week was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has...
Mazdak
Whatever Happens to TikTok, Big Tech is Coming for Its Millions of Creators TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing...
5 days ago
14
5 days ago
TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing an uncertain future in the United States.
Mazdak
Anthropic & Amazon Partnership In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup,...
2 months ago
42
2 months ago
In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup, and Amazon, the tech giant with cloud dominance.
Citation Needed
Privacy, human rights, and Tornado Cash I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
8 months ago
Calculated Risk
Thursday: National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter, Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: NYSE...
a week ago
15
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: NYSE and the NASDAQ will be closed in observance of a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. Small Business Optimism Index for December. initial weekly unemployment...
balajis.com
The Network State Podcast with Balaji The Network State Podcast with Balaji Srinivasan is on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Anchor.fm,...
a year ago
17
a year ago
The Network State Podcast with Balaji Srinivasan is on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Anchor.fm, and thenetworkstate.com/podcast.
Bits about Money
Credit card debt collection Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being...
a year ago
16
a year ago
Credit card debt is the waste stream of consumer finance. The debt collection industry ends up being sordid, for complex structural and microeconomic reasons.
The Diff
Good Accounting is a Positive Externality Plus! Crossovers; Politics: Back on Meta; Structure; Gradual Tariffs; Property Rights
a week ago
Mazdak
Google's Ad Business Under Fire in Europe Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces...
a year ago
24
a year ago
Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe The European Commission has made a formal antitrust complaint against Google and its ad business. In a preliminary opinion, the regulator says Google has...
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 A brief excerpt: Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
Calculated Risk
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024 At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up...
a month ago
24
a month ago
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).  I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a...
Musings on Markets
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors! In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
2 months ago
42
2 months ago
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
Mazdak
Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket? The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the...
a year ago
69
a year ago
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the dream of homeownership into a distant mirage for many Canadians. But before you resign yourself to renting forever, consider this: owning a home may not be the guaranteed...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
a month ago
18
a month ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 December. ... Occupancy: 59.0% (+0.5%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal...
Musings on Markets
The Corporate Life Cycle: Corporate Finance, Valuation and Investing Implications! As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children...
5 months ago
89
5 months ago
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children are quick to point out my age, and I accept that reality, for the most part. I understand that I am too old to exercise without stretching first or eat a heaping plate of cheese...
Calculated Risk
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.4% YoY as...
a week ago
10
a week ago
Here are a few measures of inflation: Click on graph for larger image. Services were up 4.4% YoY as of December 2024, down from 4.5% YoY in November. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both...
Mazdak
5 Must-Read Finance Books for Building Wealth
a year ago
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
a month ago
23
a month ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the...
Mazdak
5 Sneaky Financial Traps Sabotaging Your Middle-Class Dream (and How to Escape Them) In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth...
a year ago
29
a year ago
In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth amidst rising costs and shifting landscapes requires careful navigation, avoiding insidious traps that can derail your financial goals. This newsletter identifies
The Rational Walk
The Theban Plays The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot...
4 months ago
58
4 months ago
The tragic life of Oedipus is the subject of The Theban Plays by Sophocles. The horrors of its plot has captivated audiences for nearly 2,500 years.
The Rational Walk
The Iliad Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
9 months ago
72
9 months ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
Mazdak
OpenAI in Turmoil: Altman and Brockman Join Microsoft, Employees Revolt In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the...
a year ago
27
a year ago
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the non-profit research company behind groundbreaking artificial intelligence advancements, are joining Microsoft to lead a new research unit. This move comes after failed talks to reinstate...
Mazdak
Why 2024 will be the year of the Delivery Drone? For years, drone delivery has hovered on the horizon, a tantalizing glimpse of a futuristic utopia...
a year ago
52
a year ago
For years, drone delivery has hovered on the horizon, a tantalizing glimpse of a futuristic utopia where packages pirouette through the air and land at our doorsteps with clockwork precision. But 2024 marks a pivotal juncture, a year where the sci-fi fantasy transforms into a...
Calculated Risk
Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
3 weeks ago
22
3 weeks ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Bits about Money
Deposit franchises as natural hedges Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest...
a year ago
15
a year ago
Many observe that banks seem to be blowing up due to predictable consequences of rising interest rates. How did we get here?
Calculated Risk
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to All! High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!) beach in Newport. Best Wishes to All!
4 weeks ago
The Rational Walk
Free Articles! All articles older than six months are now free to read.
a year ago
Commoncog
What’s an Operational Definition Anyway? Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most...
a year ago
55
a year ago
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most principles in SPC, this is both simpler and more important than you might think.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q3 Flow of Funds Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
20
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for November from the BLS. The...
Commoncog
Building a Valuable Business? It's How You Spend It That Matters The skill of capital allocation — a mysterious, under-discussed element of remarkable business...
a year ago
Mazdak
Multifamily Real Estate Investment Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential...
a year ago
24
a year ago
Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential properties with three or more units. It can be a good investment for a number of reasons, including: Potential for high cash flow. Multifamily properties can generate a steady stream of...
Moneyness
Are central banks too reliant on SWIFT for domestic payments? Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally...
a year ago
76
a year ago
Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally important to our lives, but we never see them in action. All of a nations' electronic payments are ultimately completed, or settled, on these systems. If they stop working, our...
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked...
11 months ago
97
11 months ago
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked spectacularly well. Will Berkshire's playbook continue to perform well in the future?
Moneyness
The magnificent Swiss 10-centime coin The Swiss 10-centime coin has a lot to teach us about monetary economics. On its face, the Swiss...
3 months ago
48
3 months ago
The Swiss 10-centime coin has a lot to teach us about monetary economics. On its face, the Swiss 10-centime (rappen in German) looks like a pretty unremarkable coin. It's the second-lowest value Swiss coin, the Swiss version of America's lowly nickel, the sort of coin that many...
Commoncog
Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a...
a year ago
80
a year ago
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a deliberate practice training program isn't as difficult as you might think.
Commoncog
Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
10 months ago
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 1 This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
93
a year ago
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. I love playing and watching cricket. The dominance India showed in the recently concluded World Cup is astounding. I have never seen anything like it in...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188 Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
11 months ago
71
11 months ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
Citation Needed
Issue 57 - I take deep breath and I get real high Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC...
8 months ago
95
8 months ago
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC is on a Wells notice bender.
The Rational Walk
The Magic of Compounding The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my...
6 months ago
90
6 months ago
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my current net worth.
Citation Needed
Video: The Cryptocurrency Industry's Unprecedented Election Spending Let's talk about where the money came from, where it went, the cryptocurrency industry's political...
2 months ago
The Rational Walk
American Scripture A review of Pauline Maier's book, "American Scripture", which details the conditions leading up to...
7 months ago
51
7 months ago
A review of Pauline Maier's book, "American Scripture", which details the conditions leading up to the drafting of the Declaration of Independence.
Commoncog
Lee Walker and the Dell Growth Plateau How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination,...
a year ago
48
a year ago
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination, and creative deal-making.
balajis.com
Crypto Twitter Found SBF's Fraud The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
a year ago
Citation Needed
We can have a different web Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
8 months ago
95
8 months ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
Moneyness
Inflation as a tax Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order...
a year ago
77
a year ago
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order to fight his wars. This provided Henry with the financial firepower to annex the city of Boulogne from the French in 1544, albeit at the price of England experiencing one of its...
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023! I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
11 months ago
98
11 months ago
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2024: Interest Rates in 2023 - A Rule-breaking Year! In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the...
12 months ago
91
12 months ago
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery. In this post, I look at interest rates,...
Seeking Wisdom
Books I loved reading in 2022
over a year ago
Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
a year ago
59
a year ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence, Gemini 2.0, Amazon Autos and more Apple just redefined how we use Siri.
a month ago
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged in December The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46,...
a month ago
25
a month ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46, unchanged from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder sentiment held steady to end the year as high home...
FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
a month ago
46
a month ago
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
Calculated Risk
December Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.7 million SAAR, Up 5% YoY From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on...
a month ago
21
a month ago
From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on Inventory (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Improved affordability is the main thrust to the end-of-year improvement in demand, with higher consumer confidence also likely a...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #167 TIPS for Retirement, BYD vs. Tesla, Katalin Karikó's vindication, Teledyne, Helzberg Diamonds,...
a year ago
26
a year ago
TIPS for Retirement, BYD vs. Tesla, Katalin Karikó's vindication, Teledyne, Helzberg Diamonds, Interviews of Marc Andreessen and Shane Parrish, David Senra's review of Jimmy Buffett's autobiography
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts Down 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023 At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing...
4 days ago
9
4 days ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December Part 1: Current...
Mazdak
OpenAI’s Ph.D.-Level Super Agents The AI landscape is evolving at breakneck speed, and OpenAI is leading the charge.
3 days ago
Citation Needed
Follow the Crypto FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024...
6 months ago
89
6 months ago
FollowTheCrypto.org: A new project to track cryptocurrency industry spending to influence 2024 elections in the United States.
Calculated Risk
Monday: Pending Home Sales Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for...
3 weeks ago
15
3 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024 Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last of regional...
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 6th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory will...
2 weeks ago
23
2 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.   The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click...
The Rational Walk
Initial Public Offerings A company that is in the process of selling shares to the public for the first time must navigate a...
a year ago
17
a year ago
A company that is in the process of selling shares to the public for the first time must navigate a minefield of competing interests.
Mazdak
Interest Rates Dip, But Will Demand Follow? As the housing market continues its dynamic dance, a recent drop in interest rates presents a...
a year ago
36
a year ago
As the housing market continues its dynamic dance, a recent drop in interest rates presents a curious conundrum. While the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for qualifying loans sunk to 6.83%, purchase applications surprisingly declined 1%. This begs the question:
Citation Needed
The stones left unturned in the Sam Bankman-Fried trial From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many...
a year ago
35
a year ago
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many questions remain about what happened at Bankman-Fried's crypto empire.
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.8% to 2.7% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three...
a week ago
18
a week ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three tenths to 1.8% q/q saar. The final estimate of 3Q GDP came in at 3.1% q/q saar, close to our tracking of 3.0%. [Jan 10th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP...
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
a year ago
64
a year ago
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
Citation Needed
Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely...
5 months ago
81
5 months ago
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely prohibited from making its $25 million contribution to the Fairshake crypto super PAC in May 2024.
Calculated Risk
Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts...
5 days ago
11
5 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts for December. The consensus is for 1.315 million SAAR, up from 1.289 million SAAR. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase...
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
10 months ago
91
10 months ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
FIRE v London
May ’23: Magic megatech May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
a year ago
54
a year ago
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 6 for 2023: A Wake up call for the Indebted? We have an uneasy relationship with debt, both in our personal and business lives. While it is a...
a year ago
15
a year ago
We have an uneasy relationship with debt, both in our personal and business lives. While it is a financial decision, it is one that is freighted with moral overtones, since almost every religion inveighs against debt's sins, labeling those who lend as sinners and those who borrow...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders Bonds...
15 hours ago
6
15 hours ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders Bonds were thus able to hold onto the gains from last week with some additional improvement today. The average mortgage lender wasn't eager to adjust rates, however, with the top tier...
Commoncog
Commoncog's Next Phase Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains...
a year ago
79
a year ago
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains series free, and one more thing.
Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of...
a year ago
71
a year ago
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of the annual commitments pledged in 2006.
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance) Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
6 months ago
Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 days ago
12
4 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Mazdak
How Long (and Why) You Must Keep Every Business Record 🇨🇦 Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable...
12 months ago
48
12 months ago
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable records. This isn't just about staying organized; it's about complying with the law, managing your finances, and protecting yourself from audits. But with so many rules and regulations,...
Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Increased Slightly in Q3 2024 The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024: The Industry’s Net Income Decreased...
a month ago
15
a month ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024: The Industry’s Net Income Decreased From the Prior Quarter, Driven by One-Time Items Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios Persists the industry reported the largest...
The Rational Walk
Buffett Continues to Avoid Long-Term Bonds Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to...
a year ago
66
a year ago
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to higher interest rates.
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1 This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
a year ago
125
a year ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
Moneyness
How would a cash-only central bank conduct monetary policy? What role do changes in the supply of banknotes play in contributing to a central bank's ability to...
a year ago
64
a year ago
What role do changes in the supply of banknotes play in contributing to a central bank's ability to carry out monetary policy? Put differently, to what degree does "printing," or creating new physical currency and issuing it into the economy, contribute to generating a central...
The Rational Walk
A Seamless Web of Deserved Trust Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
a year ago
Mazdak
CPP vs OAS: Understanding Canada's Core Retirement Benefits 🇨🇦 Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension...
2 months ago
17
2 months ago
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS).
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are...
a week ago
20
a week ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are unchanged and DOW futures are up 68 (fair value). WTI futures at $76.57 per barrel and Brent at $79.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $73, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil...
Moneyness
Stablecoins are non-fungible, bank deposits are fungible On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive....
a week ago
24
a week ago
On Twitter/X, I recently suggested that the network effects of the stablecoin market are massive. Tether, which has four times more wallets than all other stablecoins, is locked-in as the stablecoin lingua franca, just like English has been locked-in as the global language of...
FIRE v London
July ’23: Markets up, Coutts down It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye...
a year ago
53
a year ago
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye scoff, isn’t that much – London is a fairly dry city – drier than Rome and much drier than Sydney). It has been long trousers weather, for the first time in several years. But at...
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and...
6 months ago
80
6 months ago
After the 2008 market crisis, I resolved that I would be far more organized in my assessments and updating of equity risk premiums, in the United States and abroad, as I looked at the damage that can be inflicted on intrinsic value by significant shifts in risk premiums, i.e., my...
The Rational Walk
The Oresteia The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery,...
7 months ago
71
7 months ago
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery, mankind finds its way toward due process and justice.
Citation Needed
Issue 44 – Four The Justice Department's interest in Binance isn't just "FUD" anymore.
a year ago
Moneyness
Even crypto mixing deserves a threshold Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically...
a year ago
56
a year ago
Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically record and report our transactions to law enforcement. The logic behind this is that by giving up our personal data, we get more security, albeit at the cost of 1) losing our privacy,...
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
10 months ago
66
10 months ago
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.4% to 3.1% From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4%...
a month ago
19
a month ago
From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3% [Dec 20th estimate] emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model...
Commoncog
What is Power? Understanding how power works in business is necessary to understanding business in developing...
a month ago
45
a month ago
Understanding how power works in business is necessary to understanding business in developing markets. A members-only mini series.
The Rational Walk
Will Berkshire Hathaway Pay a Dividend? Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well...
11 months ago
95
11 months ago
Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well served by Warren Buffett's reluctance to send out dividend checks.
Mazdak
The Best Age to Start Taking Social Security: It's Not What You Think When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may...
a year ago
19
a year ago
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may want to consider taking them sooner, even if it means a smaller monthly check. Here's why: Your benefits will grow by 8% per year for each year you delay taking them, up to age...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #200 Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks,...
8 months ago
82
8 months ago
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks, Appnesia, Stress and heart disease, Steve Jobs, Flying Cars, Dunkirk, Napoleon
Mazdak
How to Use Pain to Fuel Your Personal Evolution Pain is inevitable, especially if you're chasing ambitious goals. But what if I told you that pain...
a year ago
33
a year ago
Pain is inevitable, especially if you're chasing ambitious goals. But what if I told you that pain can be a powerful tool for personal evolution? When you're feeling pain, it's a sign that you need to find a solution. This is an opportunity to learn and grow. If you can develop a...
Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
a year ago
59
a year ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 49.3% in December (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3%...
2 weeks ago
22
2 weeks ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3% in December, up from 48.4% in November. The employment index was at 45.3%, down from 48.1% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 52.5%, up from 50.4%. Manufacturing...
Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
over a year ago
67
over a year ago
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
8 months ago
The Rational Walk
Paid Subscriptions The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
9 months ago
Commoncog
An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two...
a year ago
69
a year ago
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two months in: what I learnt, what was hard, and what deliberate practice actually feels like.
Commoncog
When Action Beats Prediction One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ......
a year ago
132
a year ago
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ... isn't. What a theory of expertise in entrepreneurship tells us about creating new things in business.
Mazdak
AI.com to Chat.com: OpenAI's Domain Domination From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've dropped a huge amount of cash – likely over $15.5 million – to snag the premium domain Chat.com.
Moneyness
"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did." Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases...
7 months ago
97
7 months ago
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases wend their way through courts in the Netherlands and the U.S., we continue to learn how society's money laundering laws will be applied to some of the more unique financial entities...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #180 Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting,...
a year ago
85
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting, Damodaran on key person risk, Microsoft's IPO, Howard Marks and Annie Duke on risk
The Rational Walk
In the Zone Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to...
8 months ago
52
8 months ago
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to provide valuable insights about our health.
balajis.com
The Network State Book A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
13
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
Mazdak
Sam Altman Returns to OpenAI as CEO In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman has been reinstated as CEO of OpenAI, just days after being...
a year ago
39
a year ago
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman has been reinstated as CEO of OpenAI, just days after being fired by the company's board. The move comes after a whirlwind few days that saw Altman's supporters rally to his side, with many threatening to quit if he was not brought back.
Commoncog
What To Think When Looking at a Chart In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb...
a year ago
72
a year ago
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb question that nobody seems to talk about.
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: A July 2023 Update! I have looked at country risk, in all its dimensions, towards the middle of each year, for the last...
a year ago
19
a year ago
I have looked at country risk, in all its dimensions, towards the middle of each year, for the last decade, for many reasons. One is curiosity, as political and economic crises roll through regions of the world, roiling long-held beliefs about safe and risky countries. The other...
Mazdak
The Rollercoaster Ride of Long-Term Rates: What it Means for You and the Economy Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that...
a year ago
31
a year ago
Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that had everyone from policymakers to financial analysts glued to their screens? Well, guess what? It's mostly reversed! What does this mean? In a nutshell, it means a sigh of relief...
The Rational Walk
Measuring Competence Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as...
3 months ago
38
3 months ago
Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as clear when it comes to investing.
Mazdak
How to Find Great Stocks That Will Make You Money The stock market can be a great way to grow your wealth over time. However, it's important to know...
a year ago
17
a year ago
The stock market can be a great way to grow your wealth over time. However, it's important to know how to find great stocks that will make you money. In this blog post, I will share five key factors to look for when finding great stocks. Factor 1: Strong Revenue Growth
The Rational Walk
Claim Checks Viewing money as "claim checks" that can be exchanged for goods and services is a very useful...
6 months ago
48
6 months ago
Viewing money as "claim checks" that can be exchanged for goods and services is a very useful concept.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Meeting Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a month ago
24
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.344 million SAAR, up from 1.311 million SAAR. Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator...
balajis.com
#2 - Tobi Lütke & Kaz Nejatian on Shopify's Country-Sized Economy Listen now (127 min) | Tobi Lütke (Shopify Founder & CEO), Kaz Nejatian (Shopify COO), and Balaji...
a year ago
16
a year ago
Listen now (127 min) | Tobi Lütke (Shopify Founder & CEO), Kaz Nejatian (Shopify COO), and Balaji review how Shopify rose from tiny startup to $180B+ global economy, with an annual GMV on par with the GDP of New Zealand. In the process they touch on Hayek, the Hanseatic League,...
Bits about Money
Money laundering and AML compliance A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
a year ago
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
over a year ago
59
over a year ago
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
The Rational Walk
Dollar General: Value or Value Trap? I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some...
a year ago
96
a year ago
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some initial thoughts about the company as well as the overall retail landscape.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #227 Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI...
a month ago
33
a month ago
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI Statistics, Ergodicity, The End of Shame, Notre Dame, Online Censorship, Healthcare Costs
Calculated Risk
December 13th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
14
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Moneyness
There won't be a Blackrock bitcoin ETF, at least not until Binance bites the dust Back in 2018 I wrote about the controversy over the constant stream of bitcoin ETF denials emanating...
a year ago
18
a year ago
Back in 2018 I wrote about the controversy over the constant stream of bitcoin ETF denials emanating from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). And my conclusion then was: "further rejections likely." My conclusion in 2023 is the same. Even with Wall Street-giant...
balajis.com
The Fiat Crisis This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 10% YoY in December This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the...
2 weeks ago
24
2 weeks ago
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 422 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling...
Commoncog
Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do...
12 months ago
113
12 months ago
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do it. This is everything you need to know to actually become data driven, from scratch, using the same first principles that Amazon, Koch, and Toyota used back in their day.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities! It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget...
over a year ago
24
over a year ago
It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #191 The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel...
10 months ago
77
10 months ago
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel shareholders, Investing lessons from Earnest Shackleton, Google's Gemini AI goes off the rails
balajis.com
Going Meta Meta may be Android to Apple's Apple.
a year ago
Moneyness
Renovatio monetae This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of...
8 months ago
101
8 months ago
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of renovatio monetae. Twice a year whoever held it had to bring it in to be changed for new coins at a rate of four old coins to three new coins. That suggests an annualized tax rate on...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2024: A Stock Comeback - The Low Expectations Game! Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation...
a year ago
77
a year ago
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation out of control and a recession on the horizon. While stocks had their ups and downs during the year, they ended the year strong, and recouped, at least in the aggregate, most of...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate...
a month ago
18
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. The previous three months were...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #178 Berkshire countersues Pilot's founders, Meta targeting teens, Title Insurance, Moats & capital...
a year ago
40
a year ago
Berkshire countersues Pilot's founders, Meta targeting teens, Title Insurance, Moats & capital allocation, CAVA's origin, VISA's history, Business lessons from Tom Murphy
The Rational Walk
The Digest #158 Claude Shannon's mighty mouse, Ben Graham's father, Doomberg quits Twitter, FASB segment disclosure...
a year ago
21
a year ago
Claude Shannon's mighty mouse, Ben Graham's father, Doomberg quits Twitter, FASB segment disclosure rules, Podcasts on old annual reports, Henry Ford's road trips, Jony Ive, Sal Kahn
balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got Your assets are the government's collateral.
9 months ago
The Rational Walk
Concentrated Investments Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the...
a year ago
39
a year ago
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the company. What are the risks of concentrated investments in general and Berkshire in particular?
The Rational Walk
Costco’s Director Compensation Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a...
a year ago
56
a year ago
Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a potential model for Berkshire Hathaway in the future.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2023: Setting the table! In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each...
over a year ago
19
over a year ago
In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the first of a series of posts that I make at the start of each year, where I look at data, both macro and company-level. In this post, I...
balajis.com
The Balaji Chat A forum for balajis.com subscribers.
a year ago
Commoncog
Announcing the Commoncog Case Library Public Beta We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate...
over a year ago
53
over a year ago
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate business expertise. Find out more.
Mazdak
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Advertising Monopoly. Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. iPhone 15 Pro Max: Everything We Know So Far About...
a year ago
17
a year ago
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. iPhone 15 Pro Max: Everything We Know So Far About Apple's Next Flagship. Reddit Protests Continue as Company Threatens to Remove Moderators. Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. Gannett, the largest U.S. newspaper chain, has...
Moneyness
Someone is wrong on the internet about the SWIFT network There's a chart that has been circulating for a while now on social media that shows payments...
3 weeks ago
46
3 weeks ago
There's a chart that has been circulating for a while now on social media that shows payments traffic on SWIFT, a key global financial messaging network. Below is a version from the Economist, but I've seen other versions too. Source: The Economist When banks make...
Moneyness
How is the foreign expansion of Canadian banks going? With the high profile nixing of TD Bank's purchase of First Horizon Bank last month, I thought I'd...
a year ago
19
a year ago
With the high profile nixing of TD Bank's purchase of First Horizon Bank last month, I thought I'd take a step back and try to visualize the last few decades of Canadian bank expansion outside of the country. What I've done is go through the annual reports of the big-5 banks at...
Moneyness
A glass half-full take on Caucasus sanctions evasion Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being...
3 months ago
51
3 months ago
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being carried out through the Caucasus. He visits the Lars border crossing between Georgia and Russia to document how smugglers are openly moving British and German luxury cars into Russia, in...
The Rational Walk
Real Estate Adventures Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with...
10 months ago
39
10 months ago
Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with realtors, one positive and one negative.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #224 Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending...
2 months ago
36
2 months ago
Edith Hamilton on human stupidity, BHE's latest investor presentation, Berkshire's 13-F, Extending human lifespan, Fastenal's success story, Buffett's early investments, IKEA's founder
Citation Needed
Elon Musk and the right’s war on Wikipedia The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part...
2 weeks ago
27
2 weeks ago
The world's richest man has joined a growing chorus of right-wing voices attacking Wikipedia as part of an intensifying campaign against free and open access information.
Commoncog
Tacit Expertise Extraction, Software Engineering Edition One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior...
11 months ago
80
11 months ago
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior software engineers'. Useful to anyone who might want to accelerate their own skills.
Mazdak
Top 10 Finance News Headlines for Thursday, November 30th, 2023 📈📰 📈 Stocks Soar: The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 500 points on Thursday, closing at...
a year ago
34
a year ago
📈 Stocks Soar: The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 500 points on Thursday, closing at its highest level of the year. The rally was fueled by optimism about the economy and a slowdown in inflation. 🚀 💼 Peltz Takes Aim at Disney: Activist investor Nelson Peltz is...
Commoncog
The Hospitality Solution in Your Business A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve...
4 months ago
73
4 months ago
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve (certain) business problems with hospitality, and that it only takes a little thoughtfulness to do so.
Mazdak
AI Gone Wrong? Can Chatbots Be Held Responsible for Suicide? This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and later died by suicide.
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
83
a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
balajis.com
The Elondrop Build the political support necessary to free Twitter with the largest airdrop in history.
over a year ago
18
over a year ago
Build the political support necessary to free Twitter with the largest airdrop in history.
Mazdak
The Shadow Bankers Rise: Private Credit Fuels M&A in a Turbulent Market While 2023 witnessed a 6% dip in US M&A value, a silent force has emerged as the lifeblood of...
a year ago
33
a year ago
While 2023 witnessed a 6% dip in US M&A value, a silent force has emerged as the lifeblood of deal-making in this uncertain market: private credit. Stepping in where traditional bank financing hesitates, private credit has carved a niche with its nimble agility and diverse tools.
The Rational Walk
Donald Trump’s Resounding Victory Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable...
2 months ago
40
2 months ago
Donald Trump won a decisive victory in his bid for a second term, securing not only a comfortable majority in the electoral college but a likely majority in the national popular vote as well.
Commoncog
Danny Meyer’s Business Expertise Let's break down Danny Meyer's business expertise as an exercise in biography reading.
5 months ago
Mazdak
Choosing the Optimal Legal Structure for Your Small Business 🇨🇦 Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate...
a year ago
93
a year ago
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate legal framework can feel like traversing a complex maze. This guide sheds light on the merits and drawbacks of the three primary options: sole proprietorship, partnership, and...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #219 Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam...
3 months ago
52
3 months ago
Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam Zell, UK Bargains, Gregorys Coffee, Free Speech Under Assault, Dopamine and Addiction
The Rational Walk
The Digest #206 The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of...
6 months ago
97
6 months ago
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of Silicon Valley, Self-esteem and outer scorecards, MMT's founder is worried about deficits
Moneyness
Do bitcoin ETFs conflict with bitcoin's original ethos? Some folks are suggesting that a bitcoin ETF is absurd because it doesn't fit with Bitcoin's...
12 months ago
67
12 months ago
Some folks are suggesting that a bitcoin ETF is absurd because it doesn't fit with Bitcoin's original ethos. On the contrary, I think it's a nice snug fit. It would be a misunderstanding of bitcoin's history to assume that it was the idealism of cypherpunk-ism that gave birth to...
Citation Needed
No, Trump didn’t make $50 billion from his memecoin Journalists’ flawed math and ignorance of crypto markets turn tokens into fake fortunes
2 days ago
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
a year ago
70
a year ago
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
Mazdak
Meta's Oakley Smart Glasses, TikTok's Revenue Nearly Doubled YouTube's Last Year, Hidden Hashtags on... “What if Elon Musk or Larry Ellison bought TikTok?”
14 hours ago
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.80 million SAAR in December Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End...
2 weeks ago
21
2 weeks ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End 2024 With Long-Time High December, Q4 SAARs (pay site). December’s 6% year-over-year rise in the daily selling rate capped off a fourth quarter rebound after demand dropped in Q2...
FIRE v London
The richest person you know What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are...
a year ago
105
a year ago
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are among the highest earning and/or richest people in the UK. I bet however that not many of you feel that way. Let’s start with income To be in the top 1% of earnings in… Continue...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #161 Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy...
a year ago
23
a year ago
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy band-aid; Plus insights from Todd Combs, Michael Burry, Joel Tillinghast, and Lee Ainslie.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #225 A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role...
2 months ago
35
2 months ago
A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role in Trump's Victory, Taxes in Retirement, James J. Hill, IKEA, F. A. Hayek, Shakespeare
Mazdak
10 Steps to Transform Your Life As someone who has built and scaled multiple businesses over decades, I've learned that success...
2 months ago
46
2 months ago
As someone who has built and scaled multiple businesses over decades, I've learned that success isn't about sporadic breakthroughs—it's about consistent, intentional changes in how we think and act.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Questions Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five...
9 months ago
78
9 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five potential questions for the Q&A session.
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in November The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
a week ago
11
a week ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.8% (down from 3.9% YoY in November), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (down slightly from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy...
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2 This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
84
a year ago
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: around 2.4% From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter...
2 weeks ago
20
2 weeks ago
From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3%. [Jan 2nd estimate] emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth...
Citation Needed
Effective obfuscation Silicon Valley's "effective altruism" and "effective accelerationism" only give a thin philosophical...
a year ago
43
a year ago
Silicon Valley's "effective altruism" and "effective accelerationism" only give a thin philosophical veneer to the industry's same old impulses.
Moneyness
It's time to impose Iran-calibre sanctions on Russia Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long...
a year ago
87
a year ago
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long list of sanctions that the G7 coalition has placed on Russia in response to its attack on Ukraine are surprisingly light compared to the fewer but far more-draconian sanctions...
The Rational Walk
The Use of Letters As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It...
a year ago
16
a year ago
As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It makes no sense to refuse to learn vicariously.
Musings on Markets
The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor! If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums,...
a year ago
21
a year ago
If you have been reading my posts, you know that I have an obsession with equity risk premiums, which I believe lie at the center of almost every substantive debate in markets and investing. As part of that obsession, since September 2008, I have estimated an equity risk premium...
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
3 weeks ago
13
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). ...
Musings on Markets
Good Intentions, Perverse Outcomes: The Impact of Impact Investing! I have made no secret of my disdain for ESG, an over-hyped and over-sold acronym, that has been a...
a year ago
70
a year ago
I have made no secret of my disdain for ESG, an over-hyped and over-sold acronym, that has been a gravy train for a whole host of players, including fund managers, consultants and academics. In response, I have been told that the problem is not with the idea of ESG, but in its...
Mazdak
Meta Fined & FBI on Polymarket Meta slapped with a HUGE EU fine, the FBI is investigating Polymarket...
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in...
2 weeks ago
17
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High A brief excerpt: From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock, Office’s Vacancy Rate Broke Another...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #207 Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed...
6 months ago
39
6 months ago
Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed memories, Lost knowledge, Todd Combs, Walter Schloss, Bob Noyce, Nietzsche, Lincoln
Citation Needed
Review: Chris Dixon's Read Write Own Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain...
11 months ago
75
11 months ago
Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain solutionists.
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
a year ago
81
a year ago
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
Mazdak
2024: The Year the Economy Wins? As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a...
a year ago
67
a year ago
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a potential shift towards a more balanced and stable environment. While challenges and uncertainties remain, let's explore the key trends and strategic insights that can guide us...
The Rational Walk
American Prometheus The tragic story of J. Robert Oppenheimer encompasses far more than science and politics. It is a...
a year ago
23
a year ago
The tragic story of J. Robert Oppenheimer encompasses far more than science and politics. It is a cautionary tale of human nature that holds timeless lessons.
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in...
2 weeks ago
20
2 weeks ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs? Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! ----- Monday, December 23rd ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National...
a month ago
33
a month ago
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! ----- Monday, December 23rd ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data. ----- Tuesday, December 24th ----- 8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.4%...
Calculated Risk
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $4.8 Trillion in Q3 The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the...
a month ago
14
a month ago
The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. Click on graph for larger image. Net worth increased $4.8 trillion in Q3 to an all-time high.  As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q3 but is below the peak in...
Commoncog
Data is an Added Sense A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in...
5 months ago
76
5 months ago
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in business.
Calculated Risk
Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025? Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with...
3 weeks ago
23
3 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
Mazdak
Anthropic's AI Breakthrough & Boeing's Q3 Disaster Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases...
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases mind-blowing new capabilities.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Trading, Money, Homemakers, Taxes, AI, Passive
a month ago
Citation Needed
Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me? The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto...
9 months ago
114
9 months ago
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto criminals. Also, lawmakers take another stab at stablecoin regulation.
Commoncog
Executing on Becoming Data Driven: The Technicals A technical overview of how I'm applying the methods and ideas of the Becoming Data Driven in...
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 30th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.5% Week-over-week, Up 26.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week. Inventory will...
3 weeks ago
20
3 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in late January or February. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory...
Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
over a year ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen Here is a YouTube video of a discussion with Mike Simonsen. Enjoy.
6 days ago
Moneyness
After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the...
a month ago
42
a month ago
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the topic starting with my first post in October 2012. Since then I've written 109 posts on the Moneyness Blog that reference bitcoin, along with a few dozen articles at venues like...
Mazdak
Playing it Safe Paid Off in 2023, But Now It's Time to Take More Risk with Your Money 2023 was a year of playing it safe for investors, with many flocking to the security and guaranteed...
a year ago
27
a year ago
2023 was a year of playing it safe for investors, with many flocking to the security and guaranteed returns of cash and cash-like investments. This was largely driven by the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, which boosted the yields of money-market funds and similar...
Mazdak
Unlocking Tax Savings and Building Wealth for Your Children: A Smart Strategy for Business Owners As a business owner, you're constantly seeking ways to optimize your operations, reduce costs, and...
a year ago
35
a year ago
As a business owner, you're constantly seeking ways to optimize your operations, reduce costs, and maximize profits. But have you considered a strategy that not only benefits your business but also sets your children up for financial success? The concept of hiring your children...
Commoncog
Setting the Business Expertise Series Free Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her...
a year ago
70
a year ago
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her collaborators.
Mazdak
Google Quantum Computer, OpenAI Sora Video Generator and more ... Google just dropped a bombshell in quantum computing.
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week...
3 weeks ago
20
3 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. In fact, on a few...
Mazdak
AI's Energy Problem: Can We Power Progress Without Wrecking the Planet? ⚡️🌎 AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai...
a year ago
67
a year ago
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai for COP28, it's more important than ever to understand the complex relationship between AI and climate change. Why it matters: AI could become one of the biggest energy guzzlers on...
Mazdak
TFSA 2025: Your Complete Guide to Tax-Free Savings in Canada In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to...
a month ago
30
a month ago
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to be a bright spot for Canadian investors.
balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
7 months ago
balajis.com
The Mirrortable Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and...
over a year ago
16
over a year ago
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and internationalize the logistical mess of angel investing.
Commoncog
Executing on Becoming Data Driven Every analytics project consists of two parts. The technical part, and then the 'get the...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Every analytics project consists of two parts. The technical part, and then the 'get the organisation on board' part. We talk about why the latter is the real challenge.
Mazdak
Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and...
a year ago
71
a year ago
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and battling for the last box of Oreos. The retail giant is about to revolutionize your shopping experience with a generative AI makeover. Imagine this: You're planning a Super Bowl bash,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #160 Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan,...
a year ago
21
a year ago
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan, Flawed memories, Podcast interviews with Rudy Havenstein, Doomberg, Paul Graham, and Guy Spier.
Mazdak
Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖 In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open...
a year ago
66
a year ago
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open source development has emerged, firing shots at the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. These tech giants have captured much of the AI spotlight in 2023, but the alliance believes...
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?) Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
a month ago
58
a month ago
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
The Rational Walk
Coffee Can Investing Sometimes an investing approach that is not necessarily "rational" from an economic perspective can...
a year ago
20
a year ago
Sometimes an investing approach that is not necessarily "rational" from an economic perspective can produce superior results when one accounts for human nature.
Mazdak
Tesla's Trump Card: How a Presidency Could Fuel a Trillion-Dollar Boom What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
2 months ago
Moneyness
The first round of U.S. secondary sanctions on Russia is working Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing...
11 months ago
97
11 months ago
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing payments for a narrow range of products that are on a so-called "green list," reports Ragip Soylu. This broad debanking of Russia by Turkey is part of the fallout from President...
Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in December; Core CPI increased 0.2% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a...
a week ago
8
a week ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, after rising 0.3 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #210 Disinflation vs. Deflation, Zooming Out, Warren Buffett's Apple Sales, Teens without Smartphones,...
5 months ago
43
5 months ago
Disinflation vs. Deflation, Zooming Out, Warren Buffett's Apple Sales, Teens without Smartphones, Adam Wright, Joel Greenblatt, Robert Kierlin, Bruce Berkowitz, Jeremy Grantham
The Rational Walk
A Dangerous Interregnum President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russian territory...
2 months ago
24
2 months ago
President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russian territory risks plunging the world into crisis in the finals months of his administration.
Moneyness
Kraken v Kraken, or how to protect the public from crypto exchange failures It's been a full year since FTX International and FTX-US collapsed, and the shocking thing is –...
a year ago
77
a year ago
It's been a full year since FTX International and FTX-US collapsed, and the shocking thing is – there is still no regulated crypto venue in the U.S.! You'd think some lessons would have been learnt. To best protect the public from the Sam Bankman-Frieds of the world, what the...
The Rational Walk
Musical Chairs at Dollar General Investors were euphoric when Dollar General brought back its former CEO less than a year after his...
a year ago
33
a year ago
Investors were euphoric when Dollar General brought back its former CEO less than a year after his retirement. A sober look at the situation reveals significant concerns.
balajis.com
The Network State Book A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder...
over a year ago
20
over a year ago
A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder on Amazon.
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night: Markets Closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025 US markets will be closed in observance of Martin...
2 days ago
8
2 days ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025 US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day WTI futures at $77.88 per barrel and Brent at $80.79 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $74, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are up about 5%...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #226 Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
a month ago
Moneyness
Who are the money launderers in the Tornado Cash stack? Over the last few years I've written a bunch of posts about Tornado Cash, an Ethereum-based mixing...
a year ago
18
a year ago
Over the last few years I've written a bunch of posts about Tornado Cash, an Ethereum-based mixing service, because I find it to be a fascinating tool. With the recent indictment of two people involved in the Tornado Cash "stack" for money laundering, here's another post to add...
Seeking Wisdom
What I learned from Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics Course at FLAME University I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University....
over a year ago
15
over a year ago
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University. Being his student since 2011, I realized my dream by sitting in his class for 3.5 days. Prof. Bakshi taught us around 20 different models from Charlie Munger’s Psychology of Human...
Calculated Risk
Comments on December Employment Report The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however,...
a week ago
17
a week ago
The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined.   The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate...
Citation Needed
Issue 73 – Degen volunteer fire brigade Terra founder Do Kwon is finally extradited, the CFPB proposes crypto consumer protections, and...
a week ago
25
a week ago
Terra founder Do Kwon is finally extradited, the CFPB proposes crypto consumer protections, and Polymarket reaches new lows.
The Diff
That Top-of-Cycle Feeling Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
a month ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #194 Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation,...
10 months ago
66
10 months ago
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons of history
Mazdak
Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful...
a year ago
77
a year ago
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful player in the industry. This deal puts an end to a years-long investigation into Binance. The deal: CZ agreed to pay $50 million in fines and is prohibited from operating or managing...
Mazdak
Meta's AI & Reuters: A New Era of News? Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading global news provider, to bring real-time news updates directly to users through Meta's AI chatbot.
The Rational Walk
Poor Charlie’s Almanack My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five...
9 months ago
93
9 months ago
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five psychological tendencies that can cause human misjudgment.
Citation Needed
Issue 64 – Pointing its arsenal at our friends As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like...
5 months ago
73
5 months ago
As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like “Crypto4Harris”, others insist it is Harris who must “bend the knee”.
The Rational Walk
Wealth vs. Income Early retirees are often misunderstood when it comes to their financial status. Being in a position...
a year ago
13
a year ago
Early retirees are often misunderstood when it comes to their financial status. Being in a position to deal with "social debt" requires conservatism and a substantial financial reserve.
Citation Needed
New York Times: Crypto's fragile foundations My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency...
a year ago
33
a year ago
My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency industry that can lead to death spirals like the one at FTX.
Mazdak
5 best investments during high interest rates Interest rates are rising, and that means it's time to rethink your investment strategy. When...
a year ago
25
a year ago
Interest rates are rising, and that means it's time to rethink your investment strategy. When interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds declines, and stocks can become more volatile. However, there are still a number of investments that can perform well in a high interest...
The Diff
Two Models of Forward-Deployed Engineers Plus! Corporate VC; The New AI Model; The New AI Model, Continued; The Long But Volatile March;...
6 days ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 5, 2024 The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday. ----- Monday, January 6th...
2 weeks ago
22
2 weeks ago
The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday. ----- Monday, January 6th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, January 7th ----- 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates...
3 weeks ago
24
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday). initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were at 220 thousand last week.
Commoncog
How to Use Power How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect...
a month ago
48
a month ago
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect yourself against them? Part two of three in a series on power in business.
Calculated Risk
AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in 2024, Intermodal Up From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts...
2 days ago
7
2 days ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. For the full year 2024, total U.S. carloads were 11.34 million, down 2.9% (343,156 carloads) from 2023 and down 2.3% (265,491 carloads) from 2022. ... Carloads...
FIRE v London
Dec ’24 – 2024 in review And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024....
2 weeks ago
33
2 weeks ago
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024. I’ll follow the 7 point approach I’ve used for the last few years, starting with the wider market context. Q1 How did markets do? December saw falls across most asset classes –...
Bits about Money
Requiem for a bank loan A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse...
a year ago
24
a year ago
A brief retrospective on an attractive product First Republic used to offer, and a wider discourse on the banking crisis.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #184 Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing,...
a year ago
67
a year ago
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing, Damodaran's 2024 data update, Michael Ovitz, Live Oak, Red Bull, Capital allocation
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried: guilty on all charges Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #216 Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement",...
3 months ago
55
3 months ago
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement", Caro's writing process, Buffett's ground rules, Sherwin Williams, Mysterious owls
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
a year ago
Mazdak
Inflation finally chills out! Americans rejoice & recession whispers fade as prices dip and spending... The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first...
a year ago
33
a year ago
The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first decline since way back in 2020! This ain't no mirage, folks - inflation is cooling down, and the Fed's fight against skyrocketing prices is showing real results!
The Diff
How High Does AI's Revenue Per User Get? Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't...
a month ago
25
a month ago
Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't Scale Yet; Complete Markets; Legitimacy and Growth
The Rational Walk
Buffett Resumes Occidental Purchases Berkshire spent $246.4 million to acquire 3.9 million OXY shares between October 23 and October 25.
a year ago
Moneyness
Are flatcoins a good idea? I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea. The idea for flatcoins has...
a year ago
70
a year ago
I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea. The idea for flatcoins has been around for a while, but it got a wider airing when it popped up in a Coinbase marketing piece from earlier this year. Now, arch-crypto hater Nouriel Roubini has undergone a...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #212 Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates,...
4 months ago
63
4 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates, Competing in Search, The American Dream, Li Lu, Deep Dive into AI, The Impact of Debt, and more ...
Moneyness
Crypto adoption in America Source: America Loves Crypto You may have recently come across the America Loves Crypto...
a year ago
22
a year ago
Source: America Loves Crypto You may have recently come across the America Loves Crypto marketing campaign, sponsored by Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange. In an attempt to promote the voting power of crypto owners, the website makes the claim that 52 million...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Longreads Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in...
a week ago
21
a week ago
Longreads Gwern has a lengthy meditation on effort, specifically the kind of effort involved in doing what was previously thought to be impossible. It's not so much a unified theory of extreme effort as it is a comprehensive refutation of the existence of such theories. There...
FIRE v London
Aug ’23: … A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One...
a year ago
51
a year ago
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One was the death of Russian mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin – a larger-than-life modern day warlord, responsible for the ‘little green men’ at the start of the Russian/Ukraine war in 2014,...
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 1 This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts...
a year ago
24
a year ago
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Take the statement, ‘I will only go for a walk if it’s nice outside AND I have free time.’ This can be neatly represented using a truth table. We can…
Moneyness
How did Zcash avoid getting OFAC'ed? The 2022 sanctioning of privacy tool Tornado Cash by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (or OFAC,...
a year ago
17
a year ago
The 2022 sanctioning of privacy tool Tornado Cash by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (or OFAC, the U.S.'s sanctioning authority) has inspired a new privacy idea: Privacy Pools.  An olive branch to OFAC, Privacy Pools will let users choose who they associate with, the idea...
The Rational Walk
The Dividend Signal Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or...
9 months ago
101
9 months ago
Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or negative development for shareholders?
Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
a year ago
66
a year ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
Mazdak
Big Tech Ad Boom Tech giants are raking in cash as the digital ad market explodes!
2 months ago
The Diff
Are VCs Incentivized to be too Nice for Venture Debt? Plus! Art of the Cram-Down; Transaction Costs; Amazon Air; Bull Markets; Misinformation
a month ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
4 days ago
8
4 days ago
Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
a year ago
84
a year ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
Moneyness
Circle says its USDC stablecoin was as diversified as possible. Is that accurate? There's a good article by Leo Schwartz on stablecoin issuer Circle, which provides some clarity into...
a year ago
23
a year ago
There's a good article by Leo Schwartz on stablecoin issuer Circle, which provides some clarity into last March's big depegging of the USDC stablecoin, and Circle's subsequent bailout by the government. I wrote about the whole thing here, but the short version is that a handful...
Mazdak
Apple’s Credit Card Shakeup: A Look at the Future of Fintech Partnerships In 2019, Apple and Goldman Sachs partnered to launch the Apple Card, a bold move that combined...
6 days ago
11
6 days ago
In 2019, Apple and Goldman Sachs partnered to launch the Apple Card, a bold move that combined technology and finance to offer a seamless credit experience.
Moneyness
A back-of-the-envelope estimate of the size of the US crypto ETF market I'm hearing all sorts of silly projections about how big the U.S. market for a physical crypto ETFs...
a year ago
21
a year ago
I'm hearing all sorts of silly projections about how big the U.S. market for a physical crypto ETFs will be, and how their eventual approval will drive new bitcoin demand and pump its price into the stratosphere. To date, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has refused...
Commoncog
Strong at Capital, Bad at Everything Else Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but...
a year ago
50
a year ago
Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but weak in just about everything else.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 3 This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
79
a year ago
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. The MNIST dataset is the “hello world” of machine learning, containing images of handwritten digits that are used to train machine learning models. It...
Mazdak
Decentralization Debate: Unpacking Bluesky's Architecture Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it...
a month ago
43
a month ago
Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it truly lives up to the hype.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
a year ago
Mazdak
The 7 Steps to Becoming a Top Investor Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going...
a year ago
18
a year ago
Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going to share with you the seven steps that I believe are essential for becoming a top investor. Step 1: Develop a Clear Investment Philosophy The first step to becoming a great...
Calculated Risk
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
a month ago
20
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage...
Moneyness
The long arm of OFAC and its reach into the Ethereum network Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving Tornado Cash, a piece of blockchain infrastructure that was sanctioned by the U.S. government last year for providing mixing services to North Korea.  Over the last two weeks...
Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
23
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales tomorrow, Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96...
Mazdak
Income Splitting with a Lower-Income Spouse: Strategies and Considerations 🇨🇦 Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be...
11 months ago
41
11 months ago
Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be powerful tools for maximizing tax benefits and building wealth. This article explores various strategies for couples where one spouse earns significantly more than the other,...
Mazdak
Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones...
11 months ago
66
11 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones of Canadian financial planning. Both offer distinct advantages for saving and investing, but exceeding their annual contribution limits can lead to unwanted financial consequences.
The Diff
Meme Markets Plus! Equity Comp, Squared; Venture Debt; 5%; Crypto Leverage; Closed-End Funds
5 days ago
Mazdak
How to Build Wealth: 5 Key Principles Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is...
a year ago
17
a year ago
Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is possible for anyone who is willing to put in the work. Here are 5 key principles to help you build wealth: Live below your means. This is the single most important thing you can do to...