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Mazdak
Cloudflare 2024 Internet Report Analysis Join us as we break down Cloudflare's groundbreaking report and expose fascinating trends in...
a month ago
27
a month ago
Join us as we break down Cloudflare's groundbreaking report and expose fascinating trends in internet traffic, security, and adoption.
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 201,000 This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported: emphasis added The...
a week ago
16
a week ago
This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported: emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
3 weeks ago
17
3 weeks ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: PPI From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The...
5 days ago
9
5 days ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start New Week The more important consideration is the new round of potential volatility on the horizon. Whereas it was the jobs report last week, this week's critical data will be Wednesday's Consumer...
Musings on Markets
Reaping the Whirlwind: A September 2022 Inflation Update! In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just...
over a year ago
18
over a year ago
In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just starting to see could be explained by COVID and supply chain issues, prudence on the part of policy makers required that it be taken as a long term threat and dealt with quickly. Not...
Bits about Money
The infrastructure behind ATMs ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
over a year ago
Mazdak
Waymo in Japan, Veo 2 AI video, Snapchat Monetization ... Google DeepMind has upped the game in AI video generation.
a month ago
Mazdak
Twitter vs. Instagram Threads: The Battle for the Short-Form Social Media Crown Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both...
a year ago
16
a year ago
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both offer users a way to share short-form content, but they have different approaches to how that content is displayed and consumed. Twitter is a more public platform, where anyone can...
Mazdak
Workspace AI Features Now Included for Free Google has just dropped a major announcement that’s set to reshape how we use AI-powered...
4 days ago
6
4 days ago
Google has just dropped a major announcement that’s set to reshape how we use AI-powered productivity tools.
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in November The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
4 days ago
7
4 days ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.8% (down from 3.9% YoY in November), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (down slightly from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.3% to 3.1% From Goldman: We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter...
3 weeks ago
15
3 weeks ago
From Goldman: We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q4 domestic final sales forecast stands at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Dec 27th estimate] emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model...
Citation Needed
"The Monkey Fraud": An interview with Ryder Ripps An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club...
9 months ago
76
9 months ago
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club trademark infringement and racism.
Commoncog
Commoncog's Next Phase Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains...
a year ago
76
a year ago
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains series free, and one more thing.
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried: guilty on all charges Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
a year ago
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 1 This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
90
a year ago
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. I love playing and watching cricket. The dominance India showed in the recently concluded World Cup is astounding. I have never seen anything like it in...
Commoncog
Power and Asian Business The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
a month ago
45
a month ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
Commoncog
Learning About Moats the Hard Way How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end...
7 months ago
86
7 months ago
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end of his career.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Richmond Fed...
3 weeks ago
23
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.
Mazdak
The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real...
10 months ago
74
10 months ago
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real estate in Canada. It's important to note that this strategy is generally more complex and may not be suitable for everyone. When Owning Real Estate Personally Might Be Better
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire...
10 months ago
42
10 months ago
The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices was not a party to the agreement but its business model will still be affected.
Mazdak
Subscription Overload: The Rise of Recurring Revenue The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches...
a year ago
45
a year ago
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches onto the subscription business model. This is because businesses can make more money up-front and over time by selling subscriptions and building loyalty. They can also mine...
Bits about Money
Bits about Money yearly recap and plans What we covered in 2024, what are plans are in 2025, and a solicitation for supporting memberships.
4 days ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #197 Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
9 months ago
108
9 months ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
a year ago
57
a year ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
Commoncog
Marvel Studios’s Origin Story The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of...
a year ago
52
a year ago
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of superb capital expertise in action.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a month ago
25
a month ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 13,...
Mazdak
CPP vs OAS: Understanding Canada's Core Retirement Benefits 🇨🇦 Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension...
2 months ago
14
2 months ago
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS).
Mazdak
The Latest in Smartglasses Tech From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of...
2 months ago
31
2 months ago
From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of smartglasses is heating up!
Moneyness
"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did." Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases...
7 months ago
96
7 months ago
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases wend their way through courts in the Netherlands and the U.S., we continue to learn how society's money laundering laws will be applied to some of the more unique financial entities...
Mazdak
Tech Titans: AI Race Heats Up! We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial intelligence.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #180 Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting,...
a year ago
83
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting, Damodaran on key person risk, Microsoft's IPO, Howard Marks and Annie Duke on risk
Mazdak
Nearly All US Job Growth in November Came From Just 3 Sectors! Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's...
a year ago
28
a year ago
Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's even more interesting is that nearly all of this job growth came from just three sectors! So, which sectors are we talking about? Healthcare: Leading the pack with a steady demand...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #199 Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's...
8 months ago
55
8 months ago
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, A long run perspective, the parent-therapy trap
balajis.com
No Cap Fed-killed banks took $100B+ from BTFP to stay afloat, but who's counting?
a year ago
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
11
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 2 This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for...
a year ago
67
a year ago
This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I concluded the previous post by explaining how Attention works. You can download the Excel sheet and Python code that explains how Attention from here and...
Commoncog
Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
10 months ago
Mazdak
AI Gone Wrong? Can Chatbots Be Held Responsible for Suicide? This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and...
2 months ago
19
2 months ago
This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and later died by suicide.
Mazdak
Nvidia Takes the Crown: The AI Chip Giant Dethrones Apple Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
2 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #201 Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
7 months ago
86
7 months ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
Commoncog
Business Reality Without Frameworks A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s...
2 months ago
52
2 months ago
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s come before.
Calculated Risk
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage...
The Diff
Time Arbitrage and SaaS Pricing Power Plus! Search UX; Mining Crypto; Moderation; News is a Distribution Business; AI as UI
a week ago
Mazdak
Tired of Chasing Leads? Elevate Your Value Proposition Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
2 months ago
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
10 months ago
100
10 months ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
Mazdak
Google: Monopolized? Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little...
a month ago
29
a month ago
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little competition.
Moneyness
Your finances are being snooped on. Here's how We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite...
6 months ago
80
6 months ago
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite able to articulate how. We know that we're being snooped on by two groups, corporations and the government. This post will focus on how the government snoops on our transactions,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #159 Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning...
a year ago
20
a year ago
Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning books, How Threads was built, BYD challenges Tesla, Katalin Karikó's inspiring life
balajis.com
The Start Of Startup Cities Miami demonstrates that the era of startup cities is now underway.
a year ago
Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’ It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
a year ago
93
a year ago
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
The Rational Walk
Prometheus Bound This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus...
7 months ago
80
7 months ago
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus dating back to the fifth century BC.
Bits about Money
BAM's Early Adopter discount ends soon Bits about Money's Early Adopter discount ends on January 31st, 2023.
a year ago
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
8 months ago
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Canvas Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs...
a year ago
23
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs of putting down his paintbrush anytime soon.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2023, most notably Dominion by Tom...
a year ago
40
a year ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2023, most notably Dominion by Tom Holland and The Path Between the Seas by David McCullough.
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024 Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! ----- Monday, December 23rd ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National...
4 weeks ago
29
4 weeks ago
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! ----- Monday, December 23rd ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data. ----- Tuesday, December 24th ----- 8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.4%...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Q&A Session Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual...
8 months ago
66
8 months ago
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual meeting after Charlie Munger's death.
Citation Needed
Issue 61 – Soft war by the enemy How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the...
6 months ago
83
6 months ago
How will recent Supreme Court decisions affect the crypto world? Also, more absurdity from the crypto lobby, and some new regulatory actions.
Citation Needed
Issue 68 – Opportunity agenda Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as...
3 months ago
50
3 months ago
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as another enters, and Stand With Crypto bets on the favorites.
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
81
a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
Moneyness
Coinbase: "What if we call them rewards instead of interest payments?" Here's a question for you: which U.S. financial institutions are legally permitted to pay interest...
a year ago
15
a year ago
Here's a question for you: which U.S. financial institutions are legally permitted to pay interest to retail customers? We can get an answer by canvassing the range of entities currently offering interest-paying dollar accounts to U.S. retail customers. It pretty much boils...
The Diff
The One-Big-Side-Bet Model of Wealth Creation Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on...
a month ago
18
a month ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on Investment Goes; Broken ETFs; Swipe Fees and Accounting
balajis.com
#5 - India's Largest Exit Listen now (161 min) | The $16B acquisition of Flipkart was the largest in Indian tech history....
a year ago
14
a year ago
Listen now (161 min) | The $16B acquisition of Flipkart was the largest in Indian tech history. Balaji speaks with Flipkart founder/CEO Binny Bansal on how he built the company from scratch when Indian startups weren't even a thing — and how Flipkart's rise parallels the rise of...
Calculated Risk
Las Vegas November 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 0.6% YoY; Convention Traffic Down 8.4% From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Punctuated by the...
6 days ago
8
6 days ago
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Punctuated by the second annual F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix and the SEMA tradeshow, Las Vegas hosted more than 3.3M visitors in November, slightly up over last year (+0.6% YoY). convention attendance was...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q3 Flow of Funds Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
16
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for November from the BLS. The...
Commoncog
Businesses as Ecosystem Organisms What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd...
4 months ago
71
4 months ago
What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd example of HEICO being the barnacle to TransDigm’s whale.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Kotkin, Luttwak, Poker, DRW, PCs, Statistics, AI, Hamilton
a month ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #212 Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates,...
4 months ago
61
4 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates, Competing in Search, The American Dream, Li Lu, Deep Dive into AI, The Impact of Debt, and more ...
Commoncog
High Roller: Lessons from America's Richest Banker Andy Beal's story is an astounding story of capital allocation, incidentally making him America's...
a year ago
33
a year ago
Andy Beal's story is an astounding story of capital allocation, incidentally making him America's richest banker. A guest post by Frederik Gieschen.
Musings on Markets
The Sugar Daddy Effect? Corporate venture capital, Sovereign funds and Green Energy! It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would...
2 months ago
55
2 months ago
It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would offend some people, as sexist or worse. I briefly considering expanding the title to  "Sugar Daddies and Molasses Mommies", but that just sounds awkward, or even replacing the words...
balajis.com
Too Fake to Tell US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #172 Pilot's Founders vs. Berkshire, I Bonds, Ted Weschler interview transcript, Expanding circles of...
a year ago
20
a year ago
Pilot's Founders vs. Berkshire, I Bonds, Ted Weschler interview transcript, Expanding circles of competence, Damodaran on Tesla, Thompson on AI, Charlie Munger, Chris Davis
Calculated Risk
Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts...
2 days ago
4
2 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Housing Starts for December. The consensus is for 1.315 million SAAR, up from 1.289 million SAAR. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase...
Commoncog
Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
a year ago
FIRE v London
May ’23: Magic megatech May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
a year ago
52
a year ago
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
The Diff
Infrastructure on top of Infrastructure Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous...
a month ago
35
a month ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous Consumption Baskets as Subtle Union-Busting; Second-Order Effects
Citation Needed
Fighting for our web A talk from XOXO
3 months ago
Mazdak
Threads Takes Europe!: Meta's Microblogging App Makes a Big Move Calling all European Tweeters! 🇪🇺 Meta's microblogging platform, Threads, is officially landing on...
a year ago
33
a year ago
Calling all European Tweeters! 🇪🇺 Meta's microblogging platform, Threads, is officially landing on your shores. Months after its initial launch in the U.S., Threads is finally spreading its wings and embracing the vast and vibrant online communities of Europe. Mark Zuckerberg...
Commoncog
The Idea Maze is a Useless Idea Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business...
4 months ago
77
4 months ago
Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business idea.
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights! Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
2 months ago
44
2 months ago
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
Mazdak
Finance News Roundup - Wednesday, 29th November 😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire...
a year ago
55
a year ago
😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and a close associate of Warren Buffett, has passed away at the age of 97. Munger was known for his wit, wisdom, and contrarian investment style.
Mazdak
How to Find Great Stocks That Will Make You Money The stock market can be a great way to grow your wealth over time. However, it's important to know...
a year ago
15
a year ago
The stock market can be a great way to grow your wealth over time. However, it's important to know how to find great stocks that will make you money. In this blog post, I will share five key factors to look for when finding great stocks. Factor 1: Strong Revenue Growth
Citation Needed
New York Times: Crypto's fragile foundations My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency...
a year ago
31
a year ago
My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency industry that can lead to death spirals like the one at FTX.
The Rational Walk
Measuring Competence Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as...
3 months ago
35
3 months ago
Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as clear when it comes to investing.
Moneyness
What does the recent ruling on the Emergencies Act mean for your banking rights? A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy...
11 months ago
85
11 months ago
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy protest in 2022 contravened the protestor's rights. In this post I want to provide my reading of this particular ruling and what is at stake for Canadians and their bank...
Mazdak
Elon Musk Lashes Out at Advertisers Leaving X ⚡️ Musk's Fiery Response to Advertiser Exodus 💥 "Go Fk Yourself," Musk Says to Advertisers** 🚀 X...
a year ago
32
a year ago
⚡️ Musk's Fiery Response to Advertiser Exodus 💥 "Go Fk Yourself," Musk Says to Advertisers** 🚀 X CEO Defiant Amidst Advertising Boycott In a fiery exchange at the 2023 DealBook Summit in New York, Elon Musk unleashed a barrage of profanity at advertisers who have pulled their...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 1 This article presents lessons learned regarding investing in bonds based on Warren Buffett's...
a year ago
15
a year ago
This article presents lessons learned regarding investing in bonds based on Warren Buffett's commentary in his final partnership letters written in 1969 and 1970.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #166 The media landscape, Dollar General's meltdown, The written word, Damodaran on Instacart, The human...
a year ago
29
a year ago
The media landscape, Dollar General's meltdown, The written word, Damodaran on Instacart, The human condition, Herb Kelleher, Merger arbitrage, and more.
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 30th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.5% Week-over-week, Up 26.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week. Inventory will...
2 weeks ago
18
2 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in late January or February. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory...
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 122,000 in December From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December “The...
a week ago
11
a week ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December “The labor market downshifted to a more modest pace of growth in the final month of 2024, with a slowdown in both hiring and pay gains. Health care stood out in the second half of the year,...
The Rational Walk
Stepping into the River Just like no man steps into the same river twice, reading a worthwhile book multiple times continues...
2 months ago
38
2 months ago
Just like no man steps into the same river twice, reading a worthwhile book multiple times continues to yield new insights over the years.
Mazdak
Yelp's Transformation: From Review Revolution to Advertising Efficiency Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. Shifting from a sales-driven model to a self-service advertising engine, Yelp has achieved significant efficiency gains and revitalized its...
Commoncog
The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same...
a year ago
71
a year ago
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same time? Deming — who came up with these data techniques — believe that it is possible. I'm not so sure.
Citation Needed
Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me? The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto...
8 months ago
112
8 months ago
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto criminals. Also, lawmakers take another stab at stablecoin regulation.
Commoncog
The Secret at the Heart of Continuous Improvement Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart...
9 months ago
88
9 months ago
Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart that doesn't seem to get talked about.
Musings on Markets
Tesla in November 2023 : Story twists and turns, with value consequences! I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be...
a year ago
65
a year ago
I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be misleading, since Tesla never leaves the news. Some of that attention comes from the company's products and innovations, but much of it comes from having Elon Musk as a CEO, a man...
The Diff
What Would it Look Like if The Pod Shop Model Blew Up? Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
a month ago
The Rational Walk
The Year in Review Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
a year ago
Mazdak
Inside xAI: Musk vs. OpenAI Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his...
a month ago
16
a month ago
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his former company, OpenAI, to do it.
Commoncog
Building a Valuable Business? It's How You Spend It That Matters The skill of capital allocation — a mysterious, under-discussed element of remarkable business...
a year ago
Mazdak
Multifamily Real Estate Investment Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential...
a year ago
21
a year ago
Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential properties with three or more units. It can be a good investment for a number of reasons, including: Potential for high cash flow. Multifamily properties can generate a steady stream of...
Musings on Markets
META Lesson 3: Tell me a story! In my first two posts on Facebook, I noted that its most recent earnings report, and the market...
over a year ago
20
over a year ago
In my first two posts on Facebook, I noted that its most recent earnings report, and the market reaction to it, offers an opportunity for us to talk about bigger issues. I started by examining corporate governance, or its absence, and argued that some of the frustration that...
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a week ago
15
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #157 Munger on windowless dorms, Damodaran on country risk, Disney's brand, Working without working, The...
a year ago
13
a year ago
Munger on windowless dorms, Damodaran on country risk, Disney's brand, Working without working, The comfort crisis, Fairfax, Markel, Vision Pro's breakthrough, iPhone hacks
Calculated Risk
December 20th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 weeks ago
24
4 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Commoncog
Lee Walker and the Dell Growth Plateau How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination,...
a year ago
45
a year ago
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination, and creative deal-making.
Moneyness
The strange new world of multifunctional assets I would never own it, but the cryptocurrency BNB is probably one of the strangest most interesting...
a year ago
20
a year ago
I would never own it, but the cryptocurrency BNB is probably one of the strangest most interesting assets I've ever analyzed. No other asset (perhaps ever?) provides its owner with so much functionality.  Is the sort of multi-functionality offered by assets like BNB a feature...
Commoncog
Making Sense of Deming A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of...
9 months ago
87
9 months ago
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of the most powerful things you'll find on the Operations side of the business expertise triad. Read this, so you don't have to read multiple books to apply his ideas.
Seeking Wisdom
How a Machine Learns How a fly helped Descartes to invent the Cartesian plane René Descartes (1596 – 1650), the famous...
a year ago
48
a year ago
How a fly helped Descartes to invent the Cartesian plane René Descartes (1596 – 1650), the famous philosopher and mathematician, was lying in his bed, eyes fixed on a fly on the ceiling. As he pondered how to accurately describe the fly’s position, Descartes visualized the...
Musings on Markets
Tesla in 2023: A Return to Reality, The Start of the End or Time to Buy? I am not much of a car person and view cars primarily as a mode of transportation. I drive a 2010...
a year ago
15
a year ago
I am not much of a car person and view cars primarily as a mode of transportation. I drive a 2010 Honda Civic, a perfectly serviceable vehicle that is never going to get oohs and ahas from onlookers, but I feel no urge to value Honda. I don't own a Tesla, and have only driven...
Moneyness
Why I'm in favor of financial illiteracy I'm not a fan of mandatory investor education classes. The issue was brought up recently by former...
9 months ago
101
9 months ago
I'm not a fan of mandatory investor education classes. The issue was brought up recently by former chair of FDIC, Sheila Bair, who sees such classes as ways to stop future FTX-style disasters. The model of finance I've been using for many years is the fairly dismal dark forest...
The Rational Walk
Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on...
8 months ago
96
8 months ago
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on education, ethics, religion, and many other subjects.
Calculated Risk
Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately" Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal...
4 days ago
2
4 days ago
Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger...
2 weeks ago
15
2 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales Fannie and Freddie: Single...
Calculated Risk
January 3rd COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 weeks ago
14
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Mazdak
Anthropic & Amazon Partnership In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup,...
a month ago
37
a month ago
In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup, and Amazon, the tech giant with cloud dominance.
FIRE v London
May ’24: UK election called The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
7 months ago
90
7 months ago
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...
Mazdak
TFSA 2025: Your Complete Guide to Tax-Free Savings in Canada In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to...
a month ago
26
a month ago
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to be a bright spot for Canadian investors.
Mazdak
Creating a Data-Driven LinkedIn Strategy: A Step-by-Step Guide One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its...
3 months ago
49
3 months ago
One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its performance, and adjust based on data.
Commoncog
Strong at Capital, Bad at Everything Else Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but...
a year ago
47
a year ago
Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but weak in just about everything else.
Mazdak
Inflation is Cooling Off: A Glimpse of Economic Stability ☀️ 📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic....
a year ago
32
a year ago
📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic. The moderation of inflation is a significant development that alleviates pressure on consumers and provides central banks with some breathing room. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's...
The Rational Walk
Wealth vs. Income Early retirees are often misunderstood when it comes to their financial status. Being in a position...
a year ago
12
a year ago
Early retirees are often misunderstood when it comes to their financial status. Being in a position to deal with "social debt" requires conservatism and a substantial financial reserve.
Musings on Markets
Good Intentions, Perverse Outcomes: The Impact of Impact Investing! I have made no secret of my disdain for ESG, an over-hyped and over-sold acronym, that has been a...
a year ago
66
a year ago
I have made no secret of my disdain for ESG, an over-hyped and over-sold acronym, that has been a gravy train for a whole host of players, including fund managers, consultants and academics. In response, I have been told that the problem is not with the idea of ESG, but in its...
Moneyness
Crypto adoption in America Source: America Loves Crypto You may have recently come across the America Loves Crypto...
a year ago
21
a year ago
Source: America Loves Crypto You may have recently come across the America Loves Crypto marketing campaign, sponsored by Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange. In an attempt to promote the voting power of crypto owners, the website makes the claim that 52 million...
Calculated Risk
Goldman on Employment Report and FOMC A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well...
a week ago
12
a week ago
A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well above consensus expectations. ... The household survey was also strong. The unemployment rate fell 0.15pp to 4.09%, reflecting a 478k gain in household employment and an unchanged...
Musings on Markets
Dealing with Aging: Updating the Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks Stories! A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that...
4 months ago
46
4 months ago
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that the corporate life cycle can explain what happens to companies as they age, and why they  have to adapt to aging with their actions and choices. In parallel, I also noted that...
Seeking Wisdom
What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a...
8 months ago
100
8 months ago
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a plate full of french fries. It takes an enormous amount of energy to break bad habits. I’ve broken bad habits under two conditions: (a) it’s a do-or-die situation, or (b) you have a...
Calculated Risk
December Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is...
a week ago
15
a week ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. From Goldman Sachs: We expect a below-consensus 125k increase in payrolls (vs. +160k consensus) in...
Moneyness
Tornado Cash un-OFAC'ed The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado...
a month ago
30
a month ago
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado Cash, a bot that can be used for obfuscating crypto, is safe from being sanctioned. I first wrote about Tornado Cash in 2021, before its legal troubles began, warning of the risks...
Mazdak
Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful...
a year ago
74
a year ago
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful player in the industry. This deal puts an end to a years-long investigation into Binance. The deal: CZ agreed to pay $50 million in fines and is prohibited from operating or managing...
Seeking Wisdom
From Linear to Logistic – Sigmoid Curve and Log Loss Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my...
a year ago
64
a year ago
Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Let’s train a model to predict heart disease using sleep and exercise data....
The Rational Walk
The Digest #215 Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking...
4 months ago
57
4 months ago
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking Kamala Harris, Weaponizing political anger, Nick Sleep's letters, Howard Marks on risk
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
a month ago
19
a month ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in...
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
3 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #209 Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
5 months ago
64
5 months ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
The Diff
The Nvidia Way is the Regular Way, Just Faster Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese...
4 weeks ago
30
4 weeks ago
Plus! Beware of DOGE?; Dual Listings; Search and Chat; Training Data; Bond Vigilantes with Chinese Characteristics
Calculated Risk
December Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.7 million SAAR, Up 5% YoY From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on...
4 weeks ago
17
4 weeks ago
From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on Inventory (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Improved affordability is the main thrust to the end-of-year improvement in demand, with higher consumer confidence also likely a...
Commoncog
Data is an Added Sense A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in...
5 months ago
73
5 months ago
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in business.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Interest Rates Since the Federal Reserve Began Cutting Rates From housing economist Tom Lawler: Click on graph for larger image. 10-Year T1PS Yield
3 weeks ago
Mazdak
Trump's Antitrust Agenda: Big Tech in the Balance Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
2 months ago
balajis.com
#3 - The President of Palau Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is...
a year ago
17
a year ago
Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is becoming a digital leader, experimenting with everything from on-chain identity to drone delivery. Despite having less than 20,000 citizens, Palau is a full UN member state. Its path to...
Moneyness
Stablecoins – a digital version of Swiss bearer savings books Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and...
5 months ago
71
5 months ago
Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and open an account without showing any ID. The bank would then issue you something called a bearer savings book, otherwise known as inhabersparheften or livrets d'épargne au porteur....
balajis.com
Decentralizing Education with Synthesis I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
over a year ago
Commoncog
Is This a Moat: Mailchimp and PayPal’s Algorithmic Advantage Two case studies of real world competitive advantage, followed by a question: was this a moat or...
over a year ago
Commoncog
The Capital Cycle What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
a year ago
66
a year ago
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
The Rational Walk
By diverse means we arrive at the same end Montaigne's Essays: Book 1, Chapter 1
a year ago
The Diff
What Would a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Actually Do? Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State:...
a month ago
10
a month ago
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State: Beauty Filters Edition
Mazdak
Whatever Happens to TikTok, Big Tech is Coming for Its Millions of Creators TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing...
2 days ago
3
2 days ago
TikTok, the platform that redefined short-form video and became a cultural phenomenon, is now facing an uncertain future in the United States.
The Rational Walk
A Very Strange Public Offering The story of the initial offering of Berkshire Hathaway's Class B stock is an excellent example of...
a year ago
19
a year ago
The story of the initial offering of Berkshire Hathaway's Class B stock is an excellent example of Warren Buffett's unconventional approach toward his business partners.
Citation Needed
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
4 months ago
Citation Needed
Issue 66 – Pretensions to relevance FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky...
4 months ago
64
4 months ago
FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky goes to trial, and some more ill-received blockchain games suggest “GameFi” has an uncertain future.
Calculated Risk
Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
3 weeks ago
19
3 weeks ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Commoncog
What Rigorous Process Improvement in Education Looks Like What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
3 months ago
62
3 months ago
What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should do this in your own organisational contexts.
Commoncog
Putting Amazon’s PR/FAQ to Practice What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company...
over a year ago
64
over a year ago
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company context, and what was surprising and difficult about it.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Evolving Estate Plan Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new...
6 months ago
54
6 months ago
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new charitable trust run by his children.
The Rational Walk
Two Sides of the Same Coin Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the...
12 months ago
70
12 months ago
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the longer it will take to achieve financial independence.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and...
3 months ago
36
3 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and now is the sole owner of the energy company.
The Rational Walk
American Scripture A review of Pauline Maier's book, "American Scripture", which details the conditions leading up to...
7 months ago
50
7 months ago
A review of Pauline Maier's book, "American Scripture", which details the conditions leading up to the drafting of the Declaration of Independence.
Mazdak
The Future of TikTok in the U.S.: What Happens on January 19? The fate of TikTok in the United States hangs in the balance as we approach January 19.
2 days ago
Moneyness
Even crypto mixing deserves a threshold Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically...
a year ago
55
a year ago
Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically record and report our transactions to law enforcement. The logic behind this is that by giving up our personal data, we get more security, albeit at the cost of 1) losing our privacy,...
Moneyness
Top 13 blog posts I've been writing on this blog for a while now – over ten years. Many of those posts are now...
a year ago
20
a year ago
I've been writing on this blog for a while now – over ten years. Many of those posts are now forgotten (by myself included), but some were pretty popular at the time, and a few still get a steady stream of readers. Someone recently asked me for a list of my top ranked posts...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 2023 Results Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices,...
a year ago
17
a year ago
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices, Clayton Homes, Apple, and share repurchases.
Moneyness
Elon Musk's understanding of payments dates back to his PayPal days. It needs an update [This is a republication of my most recent CoinDesk opinion piece.] You've heard the script...
a year ago
18
a year ago
[This is a republication of my most recent CoinDesk opinion piece.] You've heard the script before. Migrants need to make payments back home to their family, but cross-border payments are achingly slow, taking days to process. Luckily, revolutionary new technologies like...
Mazdak
Used Car Prices Drop: Should You Buy Now or Wait for Better Deals? The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has...
a year ago
33
a year ago
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has begun to exhibit signs of a significant shift. Prices are now decelerating, presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers. This article delves into the key factors driving...
The Rational Walk
The Oresteia The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery,...
7 months ago
67
7 months ago
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery, mankind finds its way toward due process and justice.
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024 The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd...
a month ago
17
a month ago
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. ----- Monday, December 16th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #204 Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing...
7 months ago
72
7 months ago
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing down time, Return of meme stocks, The U.S. Constitution, Gouverneur Morris, Cleopatra
Mazdak
Teens Obsessed with YouTube and TikTok: New Survey Reveals Usage Trends Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew...
a year ago
42
a year ago
Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew Research Center. This highlights the immense popularity of these video-streaming platforms among younger generations. Here are the key takeaways from the survey:
Mazdak
Tech Today - Apple Smart Home Camera Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
2 months ago
The Diff
Economic Lessons from the Last Few Singularities Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
3 weeks ago
balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got Your assets are the government's collateral.
9 months ago
Moneyness
When is a stablecoin a security? The strange case of Binance and BUSD The SEC has been hinting for several years that stablecoins may be securities. I've always found the...
a year ago
14
a year ago
The SEC has been hinting for several years that stablecoins may be securities. I've always found the idea of regulating stablecoins as securities to be a bit odd. No one who buys a stablecoin expects to make a profit. That's because none of the big stablecoins (Tether, BUSD, or...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 7 for 2023: Dividends, Buybacks and Cash Flows This is the last of my data update posts for 2023, and in this one, I will focus on dividends and...
a year ago
13
a year ago
This is the last of my data update posts for 2023, and in this one, I will focus on dividends and buybacks, perhaps the most most misunderstood and misplayed element of corporate finance. To illustrate the heat that buybacks evoke, consider two stories in the last two weeks where...
balajis.com
Crypto Twitter Found SBF's Fraud The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
a year ago
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
a year ago
14
a year ago
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
The Diff
We Still Have No Idea Whether Passive Investing is a Meaningful Risk Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC;...
a month ago
The Rational Walk
The Thirty Second Mind Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
a year ago
Mazdak
Google's Gemini Enters the AI Arena: Ready to Take on OpenAI? Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This...
a year ago
65
a year ago
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This powerful AI is set to shake things up, potentially rivaling big names like OpenAI and Microsoft. What's the Buzz About Gemini? Gemini comes in three flavors:
Mazdak
Google & Microsoft $1M donation to Trump inauguration fund, Microsoft job cuts, Amazon ad business... Google, Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI, and even Tim Cook are each donating $1M to President-elect Trump’s...
a week ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #164 Howard Marks on intelligent risks, Li Lu's amazing life story, Damodaran on streaming, Thompson on...
a year ago
17
a year ago
Howard Marks on intelligent risks, Li Lu's amazing life story, Damodaran on streaming, Thompson on Charter vs. Disney, Taleb's favorite literary works, Buffett's Japanese investments, and more ...
Seeking Wisdom
Make Every Day Count It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big...
a year ago
104
a year ago
It was a 2012 evening, and I was driving home from the office. I was worried about finishing a big project at work on time. I’d made the journey from the office to my home so many times, my car almost seemed to know the way by itself. My hands were on the wheel, but…
Calculated Risk
Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
3 weeks ago
14
3 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth From housing economist Tom Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Incorporate Revised Methodology for Estimating Net International Migration, Show...
Calculated Risk
January 12th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a week ago
8
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are...
a week ago
10
a week ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are unchanged and DOW futures are up 68 (fair value). WTI futures at $76.57 per barrel and Brent at $79.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $73, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #175 Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount...
a year ago
29
a year ago
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount rates, Evolving moats, Jay Gould, Garry Tan, Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Steve Ells
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out? Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
9 months ago
82
9 months ago
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
Citation Needed
Issue 67 – Bug out bitcoin Crypto resurfaces on the campaign trail and the FTX fallout continues to unfold. Also, merch!
3 months ago
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
4 weeks ago
23
4 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November Lawler:...
Commoncog
A Most Unlikely Master of Capital Allocation If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in...
a year ago
55
a year ago
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in her life, then perhaps you could, too.
Mazdak
OpenAI Ventures into Robotics, Grok App Launch, Trump Convicted, and US Jobs Report Highlights Big robotics news from OpenAI 🤖
a week ago
Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
7 months ago
91
7 months ago
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
Citation Needed
We need to talk about digital ownership "Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually...
11 months ago
Mazdak
X's Ad Business Faces Its Toughest Challenge Yet In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are...
a year ago
22
a year ago
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are suspending ad spending on the platform. This comes in response to owner Elon Musk's endorsement of an antisemitic post, as well as to a report by Media Matters For America that...
Moneyness
The effects of Russian sanctions as portrayed in YouTube videos Last month American provocateur Tucker Carlson visited a Russian grocery store. Because it was...
9 months ago
88
9 months ago
Last month American provocateur Tucker Carlson visited a Russian grocery store. Because it was filled to the brim with food, Carlson claims that western sanctions placed on Russia aren't having an effect. "We've been told sanctions on Russia have had a devastating effect on its ...
The Diff
Credentialism and the Money Illusion Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and...
a week ago
20
a week ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and Downside of Ads; Backcasting Returns
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Equilibrium This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
9 months ago
105
9 months ago
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier post first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium, oscillation,...
The Rational Walk
The Dividend Signal Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or...
8 months ago
97
8 months ago
Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or negative development for shareholders?
Mazdak
Tesla's Robotaxi: A Gamble? Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on...
2 months ago
28
2 months ago
Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on October 10th.
The Rational Walk
Three Lessons A few life lessons based on observations over a half century.
a year ago
Commoncog
Announcing the Commoncog Case Library Public Beta We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate...
over a year ago
51
over a year ago
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate business expertise. Find out more.
Mazdak
DOJ Breaks Up Google, Elden Ring Sold, and Windows Goes Meta The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will the internet ever be the same?
Seeking Wisdom
What I learned from Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics Course at FLAME University I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University....
over a year ago
12
over a year ago
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University. Being his student since 2011, I realized my dream by sitting in his class for 3.5 days. Prof. Bakshi taught us around 20 different models from Charlie Munger’s Psychology of Human...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #156 Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century...
a year ago
15
a year ago
Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century anarchy, Buffett and Japan, Claude Hopkins, Benjamin Franklin
Mazdak
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
a year ago
83
a year ago
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
Mazdak
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover? The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Q3 GDP Growth Revised up to 3.1% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP...
a month ago
13
a month ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2024 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the "third" estimate...
Commoncog
Renaming the Business Expertise Triad Renaming the business expertise triad from Supply/Demand/Capital to the simpler ...
a year ago
16
a year ago
Renaming the business expertise triad from Supply/Demand/Capital to the simpler Operations/Market/Capital.
Moneyness
How did Zcash avoid getting OFAC'ed? The 2022 sanctioning of privacy tool Tornado Cash by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (or OFAC,...
a year ago
16
a year ago
The 2022 sanctioning of privacy tool Tornado Cash by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (or OFAC, the U.S.'s sanctioning authority) has inspired a new privacy idea: Privacy Pools.  An olive branch to OFAC, Privacy Pools will let users choose who they associate with, the idea...
Moneyness
How should money laundering laws apply to DeFi? Everyone agrees that money laundering laws apply to DeFi. The question is: how to apply them? DeFi,...
4 months ago
68
4 months ago
Everyone agrees that money laundering laws apply to DeFi. The question is: how to apply them? DeFi, or decentralized finance, is an emerging segment of the broader financial industry that delivers traditional financial services, say like trading or lending, using a novel type of...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024 Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025. ----- Monday, December 30th ----- 9:45 AM:...
3 weeks ago
20
3 weeks ago
Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025. ----- Monday, December 30th ----- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #176 Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land,...
a year ago
72
a year ago
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land, John Oliver skewers dollar stores, Apple regrets, The Great Books Journal
Moneyness
How to debase the coinage in order to pay for wars Henry VIII, after Hans Holbein the Younger It's fun to imagine traveling back in time and engaging...
a year ago
24
a year ago
Henry VIII, after Hans Holbein the Younger It's fun to imagine traveling back in time and engaging with the then-prevailing technologies. Would you be able to ride a boneshaker or use a counting board? It's probably harder than you think: kids today can't even use a 1980s rotary...
Mazdak
The Shadow Bankers Rise: Private Credit Fuels M&A in a Turbulent Market While 2023 witnessed a 6% dip in US M&A value, a silent force has emerged as the lifeblood of...
a year ago
32
a year ago
While 2023 witnessed a 6% dip in US M&A value, a silent force has emerged as the lifeblood of deal-making in this uncertain market: private credit. Stepping in where traditional bank financing hesitates, private credit has carved a niche with its nimble agility and diverse tools.
Mazdak
Reddit CEO: Third-Party App Developers Have Made Millions, So They Should Pay for API Access The Future of Third-Party Reddit Apps: Will They Survive the API Changes? Binance.US Lays Off 50...
a year ago
14
a year ago
The Future of Third-Party Reddit Apps: Will They Survive the API Changes? Binance.US Lays Off 50 Employees After SEC Charges. Google Bans AI Chatbots to Protect Sensitive Information. The Future of Third-Party Reddit Apps: Will They Survive the API Changes?
The Rational Walk
Poor Charlie’s Almanack My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five...
9 months ago
88
9 months ago
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five psychological tendencies that can cause human misjudgment.
Mazdak
Working Out Will Change Your Life Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need...
a year ago
11
a year ago
Do you want to lose weight? Have more energy? Sleep better? Improve your mood? If so, then you need to start working out. Working out has a myriad of benefits that can improve your life in many ways. Here are just a few of the ways that working out can change your life:
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Shanghai, Wrong, Returns, Nuclear, Employee Performance, Feedback Loops, Buffett
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.8% to 2.7% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three...
a week ago
14
a week ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three tenths to 1.8% q/q saar. The final estimate of 3Q GDP came in at 3.1% q/q saar, close to our tracking of 3.0%. [Jan 10th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP...
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 2 This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts...
a year ago
64
a year ago
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts before reading this one. When using linear and logistic regression, which involve just a single linear equation, calculating derivatives is easy since there is only one equation...
Calculated Risk
Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 weeks ago
18
2 weeks ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2 This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
81
a year ago
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #183 Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing,...
a year ago
45
a year ago
Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing, Rivian, AI's morality, AI bubble?, How James Longstreet defied the South after the war
Commoncog
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
over a year ago
62
over a year ago
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #162 Volcker on inflation, Parametric insurance, The futility of guidance, Corporate governance reform,...
a year ago
14
a year ago
Volcker on inflation, Parametric insurance, The futility of guidance, Corporate governance reform, Keeping a notebook, Singleton and Teledyne, The pros and cons of cancer screening
FIRE v London
July ’24: New UK government July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
5 months ago
73
5 months ago
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
Moneyness
The lower limit to silver's usefulness in coinage A detectorist in Suffolk, England recently found a beautiful halfpenny minted some time between...
a year ago
17
a year ago
A detectorist in Suffolk, England recently found a beautiful halfpenny minted some time between 1625-1649, during the reign of King Charles I. This coin, captured in the video below, illustrates an important feature of coinage: the lower limit to silver's usefulness as a monetary...
Moneyness
Who should pay for scams? Victims or their banks? Scam call centre on CCTV, via BBC. Here's a question for you. Should banks be required to...
a year ago
10
a year ago
Scam call centre on CCTV, via BBC. Here's a question for you. Should banks be required to reimburse customers who have been scammed? I was recently reading a CBC article about a 63-year old Toronto man who responded to a phone call from a scammer claiming to be a Bank of...
Mazdak
Anthropic's AI Breakthrough & Boeing's Q3 Disaster Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases...
2 months ago
17
2 months ago
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases mind-blowing new capabilities.
Mazdak
AI Energy Fears: Overblown or the Next Crisis? Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
a month ago
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities! It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget...
a year ago
24
a year ago
It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even...
Moneyness
Thoughts on Privacy Pools and the law Here's my quick first-pass take on Privacy Pools, the heir apparent to privacy tool Tornado Cash. My...
a year ago
14
a year ago
Here's my quick first-pass take on Privacy Pools, the heir apparent to privacy tool Tornado Cash. My comments are on the legal side, and less so the technical side, although the two aren't mutually exclusive.  I've already written a bunch of times about Tornado Cash on this blog....
Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
a year ago
62
a year ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
Moneyness
In praise of anti-money laundering thresholds Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money...
a year ago
56
a year ago
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money laundering thresholds. In the first story, the New York Times shows how regular folks are increasingly losing their bank accounts because their bank perceives them to be engaging in...
The Rational Walk
Roth IRA Conversions For Early Retirees Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and...
3 months ago
37
3 months ago
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and avoid falling into a high tax bracket.
Moneyness
China is slowly joining the economic war against Russia I recently shared a chart on Twitter showing Chinese exports of ball bearings to Russia. Here it...
5 months ago
61
5 months ago
I recently shared a chart on Twitter showing Chinese exports of ball bearings to Russia. Here it is: Having accelerated after Putin's invasion of Ukraine to a run-rate of around US$5-7 million per month in 2023, Chinese ball bearing exports to Russia have been ratcheted down...
The Rational Walk
The Odyssey Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
8 months ago
105
8 months ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
Moneyness
Here’s why we tolerate fake check scams Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad...
21 hours ago
2
21 hours ago
Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad experiences with banks. Here’s a recent example. In November 2024, a charity inadvertently accepted a fake check from a would-be donor. The charity's bank allowed the charity to deposit...
Musings on Markets
Earnings and Cash Flows: A Primer on Free Cash Flow It is never pleasant to be in the midst of a market correction, but a market correction does operate...
over a year ago
17
over a year ago
It is never pleasant to be in the midst of a market correction, but a market correction does operate as a cleanser for excesses that enter into even the most disciplined investors' playbooks in the good times. This correction has been no exception, as the threat of losing...
Mazdak
2024 Tax Changes in Canada: A Detailed Guide for Canadians 💰🇨🇦 The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year,...
a year ago
29
a year ago
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year, adjustments and updates across various areas present both opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. Let's explore the key changes and consider their potential ramifications.
The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
11 months ago
60
11 months ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
Farnam Street
A Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active...
over a year ago
55
over a year ago
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active participant, the experience can transform the way you think, and how you see the world. *** Here’s a situation familiar to many of us: We decide to take a vacation and go somewhere...
Citation Needed
We can have a different web Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
8 months ago
90
8 months ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.80 million SAAR in December Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End...
2 weeks ago
19
2 weeks ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End 2024 With Long-Time High December, Q4 SAARs (pay site). December’s 6% year-over-year rise in the daily selling rate capped off a fourth quarter rebound after demand dropped in Q2...
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
a year ago
69
a year ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Mazdak
Google's AI Search Tool: A Traffic Nightmare for Publishers? AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
a year ago
Farnam Street
Why Write Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
a year ago
70
a year ago
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
The Rational Walk
The Digest #161 Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy...
a year ago
21
a year ago
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy band-aid; Plus insights from Todd Combs, Michael Burry, Joel Tillinghast, and Lee Ainslie.
Citation Needed
Substackers Against Nazis A collective letter to Substack leadership.
a year ago
FIRE v London
June ’23: The hottest ever June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or...
a year ago
26
a year ago
June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or (definitely) read the last of him but having him out of Westminster is at least a bit safer than him inside. Closer to (my Coastal Folly) home, there has been a sad story in...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 2 Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto...
a year ago
16
a year ago
Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto insurance business as well as nearly bankrupting GEICO.
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate...
3 weeks ago
15
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. The previous three months were...
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $78.2 Billion in November The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
a week ago
17
a week ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November, up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October, revised. ...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides,...
3 months ago
21
3 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides, Sophocles, Persian Fire, Hillbilly Elegy, and more.
Mazdak
Big Tech Layoffs, Musk Acquiring TikTok, ChatGPT's New Features, ... Meta is executing a strategic 5% workforce reduction, but this isn't your typical layoff.
4 days ago
Commoncog
An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two...
a year ago
64
a year ago
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two months in: what I learnt, what was hard, and what deliberate practice actually feels like.
Mazdak
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed...
a year ago
45
a year ago
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed as contributions to nonprofit organizations. Shares of Amazon fell 1.8% on Nov. 15 and 0.3% on Nov. 16. Bezos still holds 988.3 million shares of Amazon, around 10% of the company.
Moneyness
Why do sanctioned entities use Tether? Tether, a stablecoin, has been in the news for offering sanctioned actors such as Hamas a means to...
a year ago
85
a year ago
Tether, a stablecoin, has been in the news for offering sanctioned actors such as Hamas a means to participate in the global payments ecosystem. In this post I want to explore in more depth how Tether is being used to dodge sanctions. I'm going to avoid drawing on the Hamas...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 21 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
2 weeks ago
20
2 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 21 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 21 December. ... 15-21 December 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): Occupancy:...
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
10 months ago
88
10 months ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings, ISM Services From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week The bond...
a week ago
17
a week ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New Week The bond market and interest rates have arrived at the first full week of the new year almost exactly where they left off before the X-mas/New Year holiday weeks. ... Although the past 2...
Moneyness
It's time to impose Iran-calibre sanctions on Russia Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long...
a year ago
84
a year ago
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long list of sanctions that the G7 coalition has placed on Russia in response to its attack on Ukraine are surprisingly light compared to the fewer but far more-draconian sanctions...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #213 Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects,...
4 months ago
55
4 months ago
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects, Personal Bots, Bitcoin, AI vs. Reality, "Useless" Knowledge, Jay Bowen, Rudy Havenstein
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in...
10 months ago
75
10 months ago
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in the game, repurchase activity, and stock based compensation.
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.4% in December On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and...
3 days ago
2
3 days ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from December 2023. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance) Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
6 months ago
Mazdak
Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its...
11 months ago
76
11 months ago
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its acquisition of smart TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion. This deal is far more than just about TVs; it's a strategic play by Walmart to become a major force in the booming
The Rational Walk
A Quarter Century of Investing Lessons learned from a quarter century of active investing, along with annual performance...
a week ago
Bits about Money
KYC and AML: beyond the acronyms Know Your Customer policies at financial institutions have more nuance than you'd expect.
a year ago
Citation Needed
When did cryptocurrency policy become a voter issue? I don’t believe that it has.
5 months ago
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
a year ago
64
a year ago
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
The Rational Walk
The Magic of Compounding The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my...
6 months ago
86
6 months ago
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my current net worth.
Mazdak
Block, TikTok & Beyond From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping...
2 months ago
36
2 months ago
From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping our digital world.
Calculated Risk
Friday: Personal Income & Outlays Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income...
4 weeks ago
17
4 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the PCE price index to increase 0.2%, and...
Mazdak
Is Tesla's Full Self-Driving REALLY Safer Than Humans? Tesla's latest vehicle safety report claims that Autopilot has a crash rate of one accident per 7...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
Tesla's latest vehicle safety report claims that Autopilot has a crash rate of one accident per 7 million miles, significantly lower than the U.S.
Mazdak
The "Buy, Borrow, Die" Strategy: How the Wealthy Avoid Taxes The wealthy have a secret weapon when it comes to taxes: the "buy, borrow, die" strategy. This...
a year ago
13
a year ago
The wealthy have a secret weapon when it comes to taxes: the "buy, borrow, die" strategy. This strategy allows them to avoid capital gains taxes, interest payments, and estate taxes. Here's how it works: Buy assets and hold them. This could be anything from real estate to stocks...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #194 Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation,...
10 months ago
62
10 months ago
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons of history
The Rational Walk
The Digest #195 BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
9 months ago
76
9 months ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
Calculated Risk
December 13th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
11
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Mazdak
Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones...
11 months ago
62
11 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones of Canadian financial planning. Both offer distinct advantages for saving and investing, but exceeding their annual contribution limits can lead to unwanted financial consequences.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
3 weeks ago
13
3 weeks ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
Commoncog
The 2024 Commoncog Recap Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
a week ago
The Rational Walk
Will Progressive’s Growth Strategy Pay Off? The auto insurer continues to add customers but posted disappointing results in the second quarter...
a year ago
14
a year ago
The auto insurer continues to add customers but posted disappointing results in the second quarter due to catastrophe losses and inadequate pricing.
Mazdak
Biden Not to Block TikTok, Apple's Credit Card Dilemma, Google Says No to EU Rules, ... The Biden administration has decided not to enforce the law that could force TikTok to go dark in...
2 days ago
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
9 months ago
90
9 months ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
Calculated Risk
CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 3.4% Year-over-year in November Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index...
a week ago
11
a week ago
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for October. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). CoreLogic: Northeastern, New England States Continue to Lead US for...
Moneyness
There are now two types of PayPal dollars, and one is better than the other PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of...
a year ago
18
a year ago
PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of opening a traditional PayPal account to maintain a balance of dollars, PayPal customers can now hold something new called PayPal USD, a crypto version of a dollar. Whereas PayPal USD...
FIRE v London
Dec ’24 – 2024 in review And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024....
a week ago
31
a week ago
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024. I’ll follow the 7 point approach I’ve used for the last few years, starting with the wider market context. Q1 How did markets do? December saw falls across most asset classes –...
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal: The Canary in the Coal Mine? Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence....
7 months ago
89
7 months ago
Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence. Recent development at Daily Journal raise concerns.
Moneyness
Monetagium An English penny minted by William the Conqueror, who brought monetagium to England. Source: History...
7 months ago
85
7 months ago
An English penny minted by William the Conqueror, who brought monetagium to England. Source: History in Coins The way that a modern mafia protection racket works is the mafia starts doing very bad things to regular folks, say you and your business. To stop the damage, you pay...
The Rational Walk
My Years with General Motors General Motors, under the leadership of Alfred P. Sloan, capitalized on the mistakes of Henry Ford...
a year ago
16
a year ago
General Motors, under the leadership of Alfred P. Sloan, capitalized on the mistakes of Henry Ford in the 1920s to become the dominant American automaker.
Calculated Risk
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in December; Up 0.4% Year-over-year From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in December Wholesale...
a week ago
13
a week ago
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in December Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in December compared to November. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 204.8, an increase...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 Results — Manufacturing, Service, and Retailing A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on...
a year ago
34
a year ago
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on results in Q3 2023 as well as a longer term view.
FIRE v London
Feb ’23: taking profits February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling...
a year ago
36
a year ago
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling up again, post covid, though Mondays and Fridays remain subdued to put it mildly. Market movements in February In the markets, February started strongly, but then something...
Citation Needed
Issue 55 – Halving a bad time The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed...
9 months ago
86
9 months ago
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed fraud and Uniswap got a Wells notice.
Musings on Markets
Good (Bad) Banks and Good (Bad) Investments: At the right price... In my last post, I looked at banking as a business, and used  a simple banking framework to advance...
a year ago
16
a year ago
In my last post, I looked at banking as a business, and used  a simple banking framework to advance the notion that the key ingredient tying together the banks that have failed so far in 2023 is an absence of stickiness in deposits, created partially by depositor and deposit...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #207 Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed...
6 months ago
35
6 months ago
Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed memories, Lost knowledge, Todd Combs, Walter Schloss, Bob Noyce, Nietzsche, Lincoln
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
9 months ago
109
9 months ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
Bits about Money
BAM is now reader-supported Bits about Money now offers paid memberships. (Plus, a bonus essay on newsletter financial...
over a year ago
15
over a year ago
Bits about Money now offers paid memberships. (Plus, a bonus essay on newsletter financial infrastructure.)
Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
23 hours ago
5
23 hours ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Rational Walk
Real Estate Adventures Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with...
10 months ago
37
10 months ago
Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with realtors, one positive and one negative.