Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
A brief excerpt:
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November, up 3.3% from October’s preliminary pace and up 4.6% from...
FIRE v London
June ’24: Election fever
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west...
6 months ago
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west country, the south coast and the Isle of Wight; partly overseas – I visited Ibiza for a few days of R&R. Meanwhile, the election campaigns were in full swing. Nigel Farage did his...
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and...
9 months ago
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and therefore warrant only six years of imprisonment. Prosecutors argue that 40–50 years are justified.
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average...
a week ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices).
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.6% Annual Gain in October 2024
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
a year ago
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
balajis.com
Bond Villain
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
a year ago
When Powell devalued bonds, he destroyed the economy.
Moneyness
Why I'm in favor of financial illiteracy
I'm not a fan of mandatory investor education classes. The issue was brought up recently by former...
9 months ago
I'm not a fan of mandatory investor education classes. The issue was brought up recently by former chair of FDIC, Sheila Bair, who sees such classes as ways to stop future FTX-style disasters.
The model of finance I've been using for many years is the fairly dismal dark forest...
Bits about Money
Demystifying financial leverage
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for...
over a year ago
Leverage is actually reasonably easy to understand, both in the math and in the implications for financial firms.
Moneyness
Inflation as a tax
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order...
a year ago
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order to fight his wars. This provided Henry with the financial firepower to annex the city of Boulogne from the French in 1544, albeit at the price of England experiencing one of its...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #191
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel...
10 months ago
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel shareholders, Investing lessons from Earnest Shackleton, Google's Gemini AI goes off the rails
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
A brief excerpt:
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
8 months ago
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
Mazdak
Jury Delivers Major Blow to Google in Antitrust Case: Play Store Deemed Illegal Monopoly
In a historic ruling that could shake the foundations of the mobile app ecosystem, a federal jury...
a year ago
In a historic ruling that could shake the foundations of the mobile app ecosystem, a federal jury has found Google Play guilty of violating antitrust laws in a lawsuit brought by Epic Games. This landmark decision has sent shockwaves through the tech industry and raised questions...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications...
3 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from
one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending December 13,...
Mazdak
TFSA 2025: Your Complete Guide to Tax-Free Savings in Canada
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to...
a month ago
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to be a bright spot for Canadian investors.
Commoncog
You Aren't Learning If You Don't Close the Loops
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business...
over a year ago
Every experimentation and iteration loop looks the same, but the vast majority of folk in business don't seem to have the discipline to execute till the end. Why this is, and why it's hard.
Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
over a year ago
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
Commoncog
Mental Strength in Judo; Mental Strength in Life
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about...
a year ago
Results of a four month accelerated expertise experiment in Judo. Or: "I expected to learn about deliberate practice but instead learnt a ton about my mental shortcomings."
Calculated Risk
BLS: Job Openings "Little Unchanged" at 8.1 million in November
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
The number of job openings was little changed...
3 days ago
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
The number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million on the last business day of November, the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations were little
changed at 5.3...
Moneyness
Coinbase: "What if we call them rewards instead of interest payments?"
Here's a question for you: which U.S. financial institutions are legally permitted to pay interest...
a year ago
Here's a question for you: which U.S. financial institutions are legally permitted to pay interest to retail customers?
We can get an answer by canvassing the range of entities currently offering interest-paying dollar accounts to U.S. retail customers. It pretty much boils...
The Rational Walk
Costco’s Director Compensation
Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a...
a year ago
Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a potential model for Berkshire Hathaway in the future.
Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
7 months ago
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
Musings on Markets
Disagreements and First Principles: The Pushback on my Tesla Valuation
I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago, and as has always been the...
a year ago
I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago, and as has always been the case when I value this company, I have heard from both sides of the Tesla divide. Some of you believe that I am being far too generous in my forecasts of revenues and profitability...
Calculated Risk
December 13th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Commoncog
Focus Doesn't Mean Doing One Thing at a Time
Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time....
over a year ago
Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time. This is what focus looks like at an organisational level, told through the story of a business turnaround and the Marine Corps approach to war.
Citation Needed
Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely...
5 months ago
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely prohibited from making its $25 million contribution to the Fairshake crypto super PAC in May 2024.
Commoncog
The Limits of Operational Excellence
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven,...
8 months ago
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven, achieve operational excellence, and die, and others acquire Process Power and win?
Musings on Markets
META Lesson 3: Tell me a story!
In my first two posts on Facebook, I noted that its most recent earnings report, and the market...
over a year ago
In my first two posts on Facebook, I noted that its most recent earnings report, and the market reaction to it, offers an opportunity for us to talk about bigger issues. I started by examining corporate governance, or its absence, and argued that some of the frustration that...
The Rational Walk
The Trust Deficit
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the...
6 months ago
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the urgent need to correct course.
Moneyness
Someone is wrong on the internet about the SWIFT network
There's a chart that has been circulating for a while now on social media that shows payments...
a week ago
There's a chart that has been circulating for a while now on social media that shows payments traffic on SWIFT, a key global financial messaging network. Below is a version from the Economist, but I've seen other versions too.
Source: The Economist
When banks make...
Calculated Risk
Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
Mazdak
The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large....
9 months ago
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large. Enter the 4% rule, a popular guideline that suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and adjust for inflation thereafter. But is it a guaranteed...
Seeking Wisdom
What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a...
7 months ago
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a plate full of french fries. It takes an enormous amount of energy to break bad habits. I’ve broken bad habits under two conditions: (a) it’s a do-or-die situation, or (b) you have a...
balajis.com
Prompts are Tiny Programs
And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
11 months ago
And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
Musings on Markets
For the fun of it: An Open House for my Spring 2025 Classes
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me...
4 weeks ago
I am a teacher at heart, and every year, for more than two decades, I have invited people to join me in the classes that I teach at the Stern School of Business at New York University. Since I teach these classes only in the spring, and the first sessions for each of the classes...
Commoncog
Stan Slap on the Art of Building Effective Employee Cultures
Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent...
a month ago
Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent model for shaping employee culture.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2023: The Earnings Test
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to...
a year ago
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside. During the course of the year, investors also...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 3
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies...
a year ago
During periods of high inflation, capital-light businesses have important advantages. See's Candies during the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s is a perfect case study.
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 2.2% in November; Up 6.9% Year-over-year
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of...
a week ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of Increases
Pending home sales gained 2.2% in November – the fourth consecutive month of increases and the highest level since February 2023 – according to the National Association of REALTORS®....
Calculated Risk
Monday: Pending Home Sales
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for...
a week ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December.
Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index.
Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last of regional...
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence is FINALLY HERE! 🤯 What You NEED to Know! 🧠
Join us as we explore Apple's groundbreaking AI platform:
2 months ago
Join us as we explore Apple's groundbreaking AI platform:
The Rational Walk
The Use of Letters
As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It...
a year ago
As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It makes no sense to refuse to learn vicariously.
Citation Needed
Polling: Are Democratic voters really “increasingly gravitating towards crypto”?
Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How...
4 months ago
Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How does it stack up to other industry polls, which are often heavily manipulated to paint a deceptively rosy picture?
Seeking Wisdom
How a Machine Learns – Part 2
I’m truly impressed by how accurately LLMs grasp natural language and consistently provide spot-on...
a year ago
I’m truly impressed by how accurately LLMs grasp natural language and consistently provide spot-on answers. Through these posts, I’ll build a toy GPT from scratch using Python and unpack everything that goes inside the LLMs, including the math it uses. This is my third post on my...
Commoncog
Under The Hood
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
a month ago
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
over a year ago
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
a year ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
Musings on Markets
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors!
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
2 months ago
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
Musings on Markets
The Sugar Daddy Effect? Corporate venture capital, Sovereign funds and Green Energy!
It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would...
2 months ago
It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would offend some people, as sexist or worse. I briefly considering expanding the title to "Sugar Daddies and Molasses Mommies", but that just sounds awkward, or even replacing the words...
Commoncog
Lee Walker and the Dell Growth Plateau
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination,...
a year ago
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination, and creative deal-making.
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025
Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in...
4 days ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025
Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs?
Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?
Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500...
balajis.com
The Men's Party
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
11 months ago
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
Calculated Risk
Q3 GDP Growth Revised up to 3.1% Annual Rate
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP...
3 weeks ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2024
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the "third" estimate...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #175
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount...
a year ago
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount rates, Evolving moats, Jay Gould, Garry Tan, Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Steve Ells
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
3 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 December. ...
Occupancy: 59.0% (+0.5%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal...
Mazdak
A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the...
a year ago
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the economy that remains ill: the office sector of the U.S. commercial real-estate market. ** What's the Problem?** Hybrid/remote work: What began as a two-week work-from-home...
Commoncog
An Increase in Membership Prices
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old...
a year ago
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
Mazdak
Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market?
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more...
8 months ago
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more pressing than ever. Soaring property values and rising interest rates have created a complex landscape, leaving many wondering: is homeownership still the golden ticket to building...
Mazdak
Trudeau's resignation, Dana White joining Meta's board, YouTube taking on TikTok, SuperIntelligence...
After nearly a decade in leadership, Justin Trudeau announced his decision to step down as Prime...
3 days ago
After nearly a decade in leadership, Justin Trudeau announced his decision to step down as Prime Minister of Canada.
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 49.3% in December
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3%...
a week ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3% in December, up from 48.4% in November. The employment index was at 45.3%, down from 48.1% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 52.5%, up from 50.4%.
Manufacturing...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November
Brief excerpt:
The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. The previous three months were...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #225
A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role...
a month ago
A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role in Trump's Victory, Taxes in Retirement, James J. Hill, IKEA, F. A. Hayek, Shakespeare
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 Results — Manufacturing, Service, and Retailing
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on...
a year ago
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on results in Q3 2023 as well as a longer term view.
Calculated Risk
Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.80 million SAAR in December
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End...
a week ago
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End 2024 With Long-Time High December, Q4 SAARs (pay site).
December’s 6% year-over-year rise in the daily selling rate capped off a fourth quarter rebound after demand dropped in Q2...
Moneyness
There are now two types of PayPal dollars, and one is better than the other
PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of...
a year ago
PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of opening a traditional PayPal account to maintain a balance of dollars, PayPal customers can now hold something new called PayPal USD, a crypto version of a dollar. Whereas PayPal USD...
Commoncog
The Capital Cycle
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the...
a year ago
What a famous investing framework — part of the modern canon of value investing — tells us about the expertise of capital in business.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in...
9 months ago
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in the game, repurchase activity, and stock based compensation.
Mazdak
Used Car Prices Drop: Should You Buy Now or Wait for Better Deals?
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has...
a year ago
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has begun to exhibit signs of a significant shift. Prices are now decelerating, presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers. This article delves into the key factors driving...
Musings on Markets
Toys for Billionaires: Sports Franchises as Trophy Assets!
I have always loved sports, playing tennis and cricket when I was growing up, before transitioning...
a year ago
I have always loved sports, playing tennis and cricket when I was growing up, before transitioning to fan status, cheering for my favored teams from the sidelines. I also like finance, perhaps not as much as sports, but there are winners and losers in the investment game as well....
The Rational Walk
The Digest #159
Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning...
a year ago
Montaigne on Lying, Berkshire's Q2 results, Equity risk premiums, Taking useful notes, Abandoning books, How Threads was built, BYD challenges Tesla, Katalin Karikó's inspiring life
Calculated Risk
December Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.7 million SAAR, Up 5% YoY
From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on...
2 weeks ago
From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on Inventory (pay content). Brief excerpt:
Improved affordability is the main thrust to the end-of-year improvement in demand, with higher consumer confidence also likely a...
Citation Needed
Issue 44 – Four
The Justice Department's interest in Binance isn't just "FUD" anymore.
a year ago
The Justice Department's interest in Binance isn't just "FUD" anymore.
Moneyness
There won't be a Blackrock bitcoin ETF, at least not until Binance bites the dust
Back in 2018 I wrote about the controversy over the constant stream of bitcoin ETF denials emanating...
a year ago
Back in 2018 I wrote about the controversy over the constant stream of bitcoin ETF denials emanating from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). And my conclusion then was: "further rejections likely." My conclusion in 2023 is the same. Even with Wall Street-giant...
Mazdak
Threads Takes Europe!: Meta's Microblogging App Makes a Big Move
Calling all European Tweeters! 🇪🇺 Meta's microblogging platform, Threads, is officially landing on...
a year ago
Calling all European Tweeters! 🇪🇺 Meta's microblogging platform, Threads, is officially landing on your shores. Months after its initial launch in the U.S., Threads is finally spreading its wings and embracing the vast and vibrant online communities of Europe. Mark Zuckerberg...
Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
a year ago
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
Mazdak
Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful...
a year ago
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful player in the industry. This deal puts an end to a years-long investigation into Binance. The deal: CZ agreed to pay $50 million in fines and is prohibited from operating or managing...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
8 months ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
Calculated Risk
The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt...
8 hours ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP
A brief excerpt:
Two years ago, I wrote The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP. Here is an update to a couple of graphs. The bottom line...
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 6th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.3% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week.
Inventory will...
4 days ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week.
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #199
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's...
7 months ago
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, A long run perspective, the parent-therapy trap
The Rational Walk
The Digest #220
The Intelligent Investor, Antitrust and Big Tech, Berkshire Hathaway's Moat, Nuclear War Risks, The...
2 months ago
The Intelligent Investor, Antitrust and Big Tech, Berkshire Hathaway's Moat, Nuclear War Risks, The Invisible Man, AIG's Rise & Fall, Housing Prices, Barbary Wars, Speeches of Pericles
Mazdak
Netflix Discontinues Basic Plan in Canada
Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it...
a year ago
Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it plans to discontinue the plan altogether, but it is no longer available to new or rejoining members. The Basic plan was the most affordable option for Netflix subscribers in Canada,...
The Rational Walk
Superinvestor Portfolio Changes — Q3 2023
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General,...
a year ago
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General, Markel, and Semper Augustus.
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of
22,000 from the...
3 weeks ago
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of
22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,500, an increase of
1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 224,250.
emphasis added
The...
Musings on Markets
Breach of Trust: Decoding the Banking Crisis
In March 2023, the fall of Silicon Valley Bank shocked investors not only because it was unforeseen,...
a year ago
In March 2023, the fall of Silicon Valley Bank shocked investors not only because it was unforeseen, but also because of the speed with which it unfolded. That failure has had a domino effect, with Signature Bank falling soon after, followed by Credit Suisse in April 2023 and by...
Citation Needed
Become a Wikipedian in 30 minutes
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be...
10 months ago
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be proliferating on the web? The number one thing you can do is learn to edit, and I will walk you through how to get started in only 30 minutes.
Commoncog
Renaming the Business Expertise Triad
Renaming the business expertise triad from Supply/Demand/Capital to the simpler ...
a year ago
Renaming the business expertise triad from Supply/Demand/Capital to the simpler Operations/Market/Capital.
Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales
A brief excerpt:
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
Citation Needed
AI isn't useless. But is it worth it?
AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
8 months ago
AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
Commoncog
Commoncog's Next Phase
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains...
a year ago
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains series free, and one more thing.
The Diff
The One-Big-Side-Bet Model of Wealth Creation
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on...
a month ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on Investment Goes; Broken ETFs; Swipe Fees and Accounting
Mazdak
How Big Tech Could Lose Everything to Appease Trump
In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald...
2 months ago
In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald Trump, a man who has openly attacked these companies, return to power.
Mazdak
Google Quantum Computer, OpenAI Sora Video Generator and more ...
Google just dropped a bombshell in quantum computing.
a month ago
Google just dropped a bombshell in quantum computing.
The Rational Walk
Inflation Expectations
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers...
9 months ago
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers should pay close attention to Warren Buffett's statements and actions.
The Rational Walk
In the Zone
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to...
8 months ago
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to provide valuable insights about our health.
Mazdak
Canada's Retail Pulse: Holiday Shopping Season Navigates Mixed Signals
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday...
a year ago
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday season. While October saw a surprising 0.7% increase in retail sales, exceeding economist expectations, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend in the face of rising...
Mazdak
Tech Titans: AI Race Heats Up!
We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial...
2 months ago
We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial intelligence.
Calculated Risk
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales on Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million...
Mazdak
X's Ad Business Faces Its Toughest Challenge Yet
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are...
a year ago
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are suspending ad spending on the platform. This comes in response to owner Elon Musk's endorsement of an antisemitic post, as well as to a report by Media Matters For America that...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #157
Munger on windowless dorms, Damodaran on country risk, Disney's brand, Working without working, The...
a year ago
Munger on windowless dorms, Damodaran on country risk, Disney's brand, Working without working, The comfort crisis, Fairfax, Markel, Vision Pro's breakthrough, iPhone hacks
Mazdak
Nearly All US Job Growth in November Came From Just 3 Sectors!
Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's...
a year ago
Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's even more interesting is that nearly all of this job growth came from just three sectors! So, which sectors are we talking about? Healthcare: Leading the pack with a steady demand...
Mazdak
The Psychology of Investing: 5 Critical Traps That Can Destroy Your Wealth
The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising...
a month ago
The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising portfolios into cautionary tales.
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
a year ago
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
Calculated Risk
Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
5 days ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Commoncog
Setting the Business Expertise Series Free
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her...
a year ago
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her collaborators.
Citation Needed
Issue 57 - I take deep breath and I get real high
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC...
8 months ago
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC is on a Wells notice bender.
Mazdak
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds : The Great Investment Debate
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual...
8 months ago
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds can be a head-scratcher. Both offer diversification, professional management options, and access to a variety of asset classes. However, they differ significantly in how they...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications...
2 days ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one
week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending January 3, 2025....
The Rational Walk
Thucydides
Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between...
4 months ago
Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between 431 - 404 BC.
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
FOMC...
3 weeks ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
FOMC Statement:
lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the...
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $78.2 Billion in November
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
3 days ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today
that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November, up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in
October, revised.
...
Musings on Markets
Just do it! Brand Name Lessons from Nike'sTroubles!
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon...
3 months ago
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon University track team built one of the great shoe companies in the world, in Nike. In addition to its entertainment value, and it is a fun book to read, I read it for two...
The Rational Walk
The Limits of an Inner Scorecard
Having an "inner scorecard" can be liberating and foster independent thinking, but ultimately human...
a year ago
Having an "inner scorecard" can be liberating and foster independent thinking, but ultimately human beings must also subject themselves to the judgment of key people in their lives.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #186
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment...
11 months ago
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment checklists, Shane Parrish interviews Tom Gayner, Novo Nordisk, Howard Marks on interest rates
Commoncog
Tacit Expertise Extraction, Software Engineering Edition
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior...
10 months ago
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior software engineers'. Useful to anyone who might want to accelerate their own skills.
Mazdak
Tesla's Robotaxi: A Gamble?
Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on...
2 months ago
Elon Musk finally took the wraps off his highly anticipated Cybercab at Tesla's "We, Robot" event on October 10th.
The Diff
What Would it Look Like if The Pod Shop Model Blew Up?
Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
3 weeks ago
Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
Mazdak
2024: The Year the Economy Wins?
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a...
a year ago
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a potential shift towards a more balanced and stable environment. While challenges and uncertainties remain, let's explore the key trends and strategic insights that can guide us...
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
10 months ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Richmond Fed...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December.
NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.
Citation Needed
Not just one bad apple: FTX's practices were business as usual in crypto
Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret...
a week ago
Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret acquisitions of “grey area” businesses, buying influence, and creative accounting.
FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
8 months ago
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
The Diff
Economic Lessons from the Last Few Singularities
Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
2 weeks ago
Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
Mazdak
Income Splitting with a Lower-Income Spouse: Strategies and Considerations 🇨🇦
Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be...
11 months ago
Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be powerful tools for maximizing tax benefits and building wealth. This article explores various strategies for couples where one spouse earns significantly more than the other,...
Mazdak
How to Start a Cleaning Company Without Cleaning
The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion...
a year ago
The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion by 2026. This growth is being driven by a number of factors, including the increasing number of dual-income households, the growing popularity of Airbnb, and the rising demand for...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
6 days ago
Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
Mazdak
The Shadow Bankers Rise: Private Credit Fuels M&A in a Turbulent Market
While 2023 witnessed a 6% dip in US M&A value, a silent force has emerged as the lifeblood of...
a year ago
While 2023 witnessed a 6% dip in US M&A value, a silent force has emerged as the lifeblood of deal-making in this uncertain market: private credit. Stepping in where traditional bank financing hesitates, private credit has carved a niche with its nimble agility and diverse tools.
Commoncog
Marvel Studios’s Origin Story
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of...
a year ago
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of superb capital expertise in action.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2024: A Stock Comeback - The Low Expectations Game!
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation...
11 months ago
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation out of control and a recession on the horizon. While stocks had their ups and downs during the year, they ended the year strong, and recouped, at least in the aggregate, most of...
The Rational Walk
Will Berkshire Hathaway Pay a Dividend?
Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well...
10 months ago
Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well served by Warren Buffett's reluctance to send out dividend checks.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #165
Buffett on Inflation, Dollar General, Due Diligence, Personal Libraries, The role of AI in drug...
a year ago
Buffett on Inflation, Dollar General, Due Diligence, Personal Libraries, The role of AI in drug discovery, Small-cap opportunities, and interviews of Peter Brown, Bill Gross, Chris Bloomstran.
Mazdak
Minimize Taxes, Maximize Inheritance: A Canadian Guide to Estate Planning with Real Estate
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key...
11 months ago
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key concerns. In this context, real estate, often the largest asset, presents unique challenges and opportunities. While strategies like adding children to titles were once popular,...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2024: Interest Rates in 2023 - A Rule-breaking Year!
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the...
11 months ago
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery. In this post, I look at interest rates,...
The Rational Walk
The Power of Investment Journals
Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles...
a year ago
Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles explores lessons I learned dating back to 2009.
Mazdak
Choosing the Optimal Legal Structure for Your Small Business 🇨🇦
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate...
11 months ago
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate legal framework can feel like traversing a complex maze. This guide sheds light on the merits and drawbacks of the three primary options: sole proprietorship, partnership, and...
Citation Needed
Issue 45 – I'm the director now
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker...
a year ago
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker decides to manifest a new job for themselves.
balajis.com
Crypto Twitter Found SBF's Fraud
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
a year ago
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
a year ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
Bits about Money
Banking in very uncertain times
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we...
a year ago
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we may not get about it.
Mazdak
Tech Today - Apple Smart Home Camera
Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
a month ago
Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on Learning
I was learning how to program during the mid to late 90s. Finding learning material in a world...
a year ago
I was learning how to program during the mid to late 90s. Finding learning material in a world without the Internet, Google, and YouTube was incredibly challenging. I struggled to understand how pointers in C worked. Yashavant Kanetkar’s Understanding Pointers in C book helped me...
Commoncog
When Action Beats Prediction
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ......
a year ago
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ... isn't. What a theory of expertise in entrepreneurship tells us about creating new things in business.
Calculated Risk
January 3rd COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
6 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Rational Walk
The Iliad
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
9 months ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
Musings on Markets
Dealing with Aging: Updating the Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks Stories!
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that...
4 months ago
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that the corporate life cycle can explain what happens to companies as they age, and why they have to adapt to aging with their actions and choices. In parallel, I also noted that...
Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
a year ago
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
balajis.com
California Is Not A Democracy
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
7 months ago
It's a one-party state. They hold elections, but the Party always wins.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q3 Flow of Funds
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly...
4 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week.
Producer Price Index for November from the BLS. The...
Mazdak
Google and the Canadian Government Reach a Deal on Online News Act
The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three...
a year ago
The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three weeks before the act is scheduled to come into effect. The deal will see Google continue to show Canadian news on its platforms in exchange for annual payments to Canadian news...
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November
The Mortgage...
2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.50% as of November 30, 2024. According to MBA’s...
Mazdak
Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its...
10 months ago
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its acquisition of smart TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion. This deal is far more than just about TVs; it's a strategic play by Walmart to become a major force in the booming
Moneyness
The long arm of OFAC and its reach into the Ethereum network
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving...
a year ago
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving Tornado Cash, a piece of blockchain infrastructure that was sanctioned by the U.S. government last year for providing mixing services to North Korea.
Over the last two weeks...
Musings on Markets
Reaping the Whirlwind: A September 2022 Inflation Update!
In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just...
over a year ago
In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just starting to see could be explained by COVID and supply chain issues, prudence on the part of policy makers required that it be taken as a long term threat and dealt with quickly. Not...
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: A July 2023 Update!
I have looked at country risk, in all its dimensions, towards the middle of each year, for the last...
a year ago
I have looked at country risk, in all its dimensions, towards the middle of each year, for the last decade, for many reasons. One is curiosity, as political and economic crises roll through regions of the world, roiling long-held beliefs about safe and risky countries. The other...
Citation Needed
Review: Chris Dixon's Read Write Own
Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain...
11 months ago
Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain solutionists.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #223
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected...
2 months ago
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, Market Prices as Political Predictors, The Three Indias, Semiconductor Progress
Commoncog
The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same...
a year ago
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same time? Deming — who came up with these data techniques — believe that it is possible. I'm not so sure.
The Diff
Social Media as a Test of Human-in-the-Loop Generative AI
Plus! Holdcos; Cash and Control; War Economies; In-Kind Dividends; Currency
a month ago
Plus! Holdcos; Cash and Control; War Economies; In-Kind Dividends; Currency
Calculated Risk
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $4.8 Trillion in Q3
The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the...
4 weeks ago
The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.
Click on graph for larger image.
Net worth increased $4.8 trillion in Q3 to an all-time high. As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q3 but is below the peak in...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #176
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land,...
a year ago
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land, John Oliver skewers dollar stores, Apple regrets, The Great Books Journal
The Rational Walk
The Digest #210
Disinflation vs. Deflation, Zooming Out, Warren Buffett's Apple Sales, Teens without Smartphones,...
4 months ago
Disinflation vs. Deflation, Zooming Out, Warren Buffett's Apple Sales, Teens without Smartphones, Adam Wright, Joel Greenblatt, Robert Kierlin, Bruce Berkowitz, Jeremy Grantham
The Rational Walk
The Digest #215
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking...
3 months ago
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking Kamala Harris, Weaponizing political anger, Nick Sleep's letters, Howard Marks on risk
Mazdak
Creating a Data-Driven LinkedIn Strategy: A Step-by-Step Guide
One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its...
2 months ago
One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its performance, and adjust based on data.
Musings on Markets
Tesla in 2023: A Return to Reality, The Start of the End or Time to Buy?
I am not much of a car person and view cars primarily as a mode of transportation. I drive a 2010...
a year ago
I am not much of a car person and view cars primarily as a mode of transportation. I drive a 2010 Honda Civic, a perfectly serviceable vehicle that is never going to get oohs and ahas from onlookers, but I feel no urge to value Honda. I don't own a Tesla, and have only driven...
The Rational Walk
Burlington Northern Santa Fe — 2023 Results
Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
10 months ago
Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
Musings on Markets
A Return to Teaching: The Spring 2023 Edition
If, as you read this post, it feels like you have read it or a close variant before, it is because...
over a year ago
If, as you read this post, it feels like you have read it or a close variant before, it is because you have. Each year, ahead of teaching my classes at NYU's Stern School of Business in the spring, I invite readers to accompany me on my journey, and this year is no different....
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
11 months ago
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
The Rational Walk
Endurance
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived...
11 months ago
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived shipwreck, ice floes, and constant danger.
Citation Needed
Fighting for our web
A talk from XOXO
3 months ago
balajis.com
#3 - The President of Palau
Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is...
a year ago
Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is becoming a digital leader, experimenting with everything from on-chain identity to drone delivery. Despite having less than 20,000 citizens, Palau is a full UN member state. Its path to...
Commoncog
Colin Bryar on the practice of Amazon's Weekly Business Review
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of...
a year ago
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of Amazon's secret operational weapons: the Weekly Business Review.
Mazdak
2024 Tax Changes in Canada: A Detailed Guide for Canadians 💰🇨🇦
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year,...
a year ago
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year, adjustments and updates across various areas present both opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. Let's explore the key changes and consider their potential ramifications.
Musings on Markets
AI's Winners, Losers and Wannabes: An NVIDIA Valuation, with the AI Boost!
I will start this post with a couple of confessions. The first is that my portfolio has held up well...
a year ago
I will start this post with a couple of confessions. The first is that my portfolio has held up well this year, in a market that has been top-heavy and tech-driven, and one big reason is that it contains both NVIDIA and Microsoft, two companies that have benefited from the AI...
FIRE v London
Mayday for IBKR margin lending
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No...
a year ago
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No longer. If you’ve read my other posts (like this or this or this) on margin lending, and are interested in exploring further, make you read this post before you do. Why I used to like...
Commoncog
Power and Asian Business
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
a month ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 2023 Results
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices,...
a year ago
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices, Clayton Homes, Apple, and share repurchases.
Commoncog
How to Become Data Driven
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious...
a year ago
The answer, like most things from Statistical Process Control, is more surprising and more obvious than you might think.
FIRE v London
May ’23: Magic megatech
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
a year ago
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
balajis.com
The Start Of Startup Cities
Miami demonstrates that the era of startup cities is now underway.
a year ago
Miami demonstrates that the era of startup cities is now underway.
Mazdak
Decentralization Debate: Unpacking Bluesky's Architecture
Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it...
a month ago
Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it truly lives up to the hype.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #195
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
9 months ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus,...
6 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus, Herodotus, the Odyssey, and American Scripture.
Mazdak
The Unexpected Saviour of Journalism
In a digital landscape drowning in AI-generated noise, an unlikely hero emerges: generative AI...
a month ago
In a digital landscape drowning in AI-generated noise, an unlikely hero emerges: generative AI itself.
The Rational Walk
A Mind at Play
Claude Shannon is most famous for his groundbreaking work related to information theory, one of many...
a year ago
Claude Shannon is most famous for his groundbreaking work related to information theory, one of many subjects discussed in his fascinating biography.
Bits about Money
KYC and AML: beyond the acronyms
Know Your Customer policies at financial institutions have more nuance than you'd expect.
a year ago
Know Your Customer policies at financial institutions have more nuance than you'd expect.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #193
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect...
10 months ago
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect on the brain, Race and cardiovascular disease, Inflation's effect on insurance pricing
The Rational Walk
The Digest #198
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How...
8 months ago
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How to spend your days, AI and productivity
Mazdak
Google's Ad Business Under Fire in Europe
Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces...
a year ago
Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe The European Commission has made a formal antitrust complaint against Google and its ad business. In a preliminary opinion, the regulator says Google has...
Commoncog
An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two...
a year ago
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two months in: what I learnt, what was hard, and what deliberate practice actually feels like.
Citation Needed
We can have a different web
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
8 months ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
Mazdak
The Best Age to Start Taking Social Security: It's Not What You Think
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may...
a year ago
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may want to consider taking them sooner, even if it means a smaller monthly check. Here's why: Your benefits will grow by 8% per year for each year you delay taking them, up to age...
Mazdak
Interest Rates Dip, But Will Demand Follow?
As the housing market continues its dynamic dance, a recent drop in interest rates presents a...
a year ago
As the housing market continues its dynamic dance, a recent drop in interest rates presents a curious conundrum. While the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for qualifying loans sunk to 6.83%, purchase applications surprisingly declined 1%. This begs the question:
Mazdak
Big Tech Donating to Trump's Inaugural Fund, Teens' Online Habits, More Tech Updates
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on...
3 weeks ago
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on Prime Video 😀
Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.8% YoY in November
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
2 weeks ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2024.
CPI Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in November, down from 4.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
Mazdak
Commercial vs. Residential Real Estate: Which One Is Right for You?
Investing in real estate can be a great way to build wealth and generate passive income. But which...
a year ago
Investing in real estate can be a great way to build wealth and generate passive income. But which type of real estate is right for you? Commercial or residential? In this blog post, we will compare and contrast commercial and residential real estate, and help you decide which...
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
a year ago
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #209
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
5 months ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
The Rational Walk
The Digest #169
Apple Watch, Musical Chairs at Dollar General, IPOs, Impact Investing, Buffett in 1988, Mapping the...
a year ago
Apple Watch, Musical Chairs at Dollar General, IPOs, Impact Investing, Buffett in 1988, Mapping the human brain, Interviews of Nassim Taleb, Jensen Huang, John and Patrick Collison, and more ...
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
Commoncog
What’s an Operational Definition Anyway?
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most...
a year ago
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most principles in SPC, this is both simpler and more important than you might think.
balajis.com
The Network State Book
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
Musings on Markets
The Corporate Life Cycle: Corporate Finance, Valuation and Investing Implications!
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children...
4 months ago
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children are quick to point out my age, and I accept that reality, for the most part. I understand that I am too old to exercise without stretching first or eat a heaping plate of cheese...
Commoncog
The 2024 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
2 days ago
Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
a year ago
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
Commoncog
Dancing Landscapes in Business
Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the...
over a year ago
Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the wickedness of business.
balajis.com
#4 - The Winklevoss Twins and Balaji
Listen now (50 min) | Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss talk with Balaji about how Washington, DC is...
a year ago
Listen now (50 min) | Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss talk with Balaji about how Washington, DC is losing crypto, while other countries like the UAE and Japan are winning web3. OUTLINE 0:00 - I'm 6'5", 220, and there's two of me! 0:58 - Crypto flippening from America to Asia
Mazdak
Regulating Crypto
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end...
a month ago
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end for crypto, or a necessary step towards mainstream adoption?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #202
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter...
7 months ago
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter syndrome, Decline of higher education, Howard Schultz, Cathie Wood, Robert Hagstrom
Mazdak
The Growth Rocket Fuel of Low Gross Margin Businesses
When most people think of successful businesses, they think of businesses with high gross margins....
a year ago
When most people think of successful businesses, they think of businesses with high gross margins. After all, a high gross margin means that a business is making a lot of money on each sale. However, there are a number of successful businesses that have low gross margins. These...
Mazdak
The Big News: ChatGPT Pays Up for Content, Ushering in a New Era for Media & AI
Get ready for a paradigm shift, folks! News just dropped that OpenAI, the brains behind ChatGPT, has...
a year ago
Get ready for a paradigm shift, folks! News just dropped that OpenAI, the brains behind ChatGPT, has signed a multi-year licensing deal with Axel Springer, the media giant behind Politico and Business Insider. This isn't just any deal, it's a game-changer
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Shanghai, Wrong, Returns, Nuclear, Employee Performance, Feedback Loops, Buffett
a month ago
Shanghai, Wrong, Returns, Nuclear, Employee Performance, Feedback Loops, Buffett
Seeking Wisdom
What I learned from Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics Course at FLAME University
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University....
over a year ago
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University. Being his student since 2011, I realized my dream by sitting in his class for 3.5 days. Prof. Bakshi taught us around 20 different models from Charlie Munger’s Psychology of Human...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2023, most notably Dominion by Tom...
a year ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2023, most notably Dominion by Tom Holland and The Path Between the Seas by David McCullough.
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
a year ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
The Rational Walk
Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined...
9 months ago
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined ratio.
The Rational Walk
My Years with General Motors
General Motors, under the leadership of Alfred P. Sloan, capitalized on the mistakes of Henry Ford...
a year ago
General Motors, under the leadership of Alfred P. Sloan, capitalized on the mistakes of Henry Ford in the 1920s to become the dominant American automaker.
Farnam Street
A Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active...
over a year ago
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active participant, the experience can transform the way you think, and how you see the world. *** Here’s a situation familiar to many of us: We decide to take a vacation and go somewhere...
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
3 months ago
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
The Rational Walk
Negative Lollapalooza Effects
Sharing ideas can have benefits but there are also psychological risks. This article applies lessons...
a year ago
Sharing ideas can have benefits but there are also psychological risks. This article applies lessons from Charlie Munger's psychology of human misjudgment to investing.
Moneyness
In praise of anti-money laundering thresholds
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money...
a year ago
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money laundering thresholds.
In the first story, the New York Times shows how regular folks are increasingly losing their bank accounts because their bank perceives them to be engaging in...
The Rational Walk
Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023)
A life well lived
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Construction Spending
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates...
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday).
mortgage purchase applications index.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 223...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #182
Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire,...
a year ago
Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire, Better habits for 2024, Amusing CPA stories, Ben Graham, Charlie Munger, Pernod Ricard
Mazdak
Inflation is Cooling Off: A Glimpse of Economic Stability ☀️
📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic....
a year ago
📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic. The moderation of inflation is a significant development that alleviates pressure on consumers and provides central banks with some breathing room. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's...
Moneyness
Bitcoin as a tool of U.S. economic statecraft
Riot Platform's Rockdale, Texas facility, North America’s largest Bitcoin mining farm by developed...
5 months ago
Riot Platform's Rockdale, Texas facility, North America’s largest Bitcoin mining farm by developed capacity [source]
Can a network that has been marketed as being resistant to government power be harnessed by the U.S. administrative state in order to attain its foreign policy...
The Rational Walk
Concentrated Investments
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the...
a year ago
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the company. What are the risks of concentrated investments in general and Berkshire in particular?
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged in December
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46,...
3 weeks ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46, unchanged from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
Builder sentiment held steady to end the year as high home...
Moneyness
UK's core payments settlement system fails... again. Some thoughts
As they increasingly forsake cash, regular folks are making dozens of digital payments every month....
a year ago
As they increasingly forsake cash, regular folks are making dozens of digital payments every month. What they don't realize is how this growing reliance on digital payments increasingly yokes their commercial lives to the fate of a single piece of infrastructure: their central...
Commoncog
Process Improvement is Trickier Than You Think
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because...
over a year ago
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because they're bad or lazy — but because there are system dynamics that prevent them from doing so. We take a look at what those are.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #168
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's...
a year ago
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's IPO, Costco's clothing, Todd Combs interview, Equifax, and more ...
The Rational Walk
A Very Strange Public Offering
The story of the initial offering of Berkshire Hathaway's Class B stock is an excellent example of...
a year ago
The story of the initial offering of Berkshire Hathaway's Class B stock is an excellent example of Warren Buffett's unconventional approach toward his business partners.
Calculated Risk
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to All!
High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!)
beach in Newport.
Best Wishes to All!
2 weeks ago
High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!)
beach in Newport.
Best Wishes to All!
Moneyness
A glass half-full take on Caucasus sanctions evasion
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being...
3 months ago
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being carried out through the Caucasus. He visits the Lars border crossing between Georgia and Russia to document how smugglers are openly moving British and German luxury cars into Russia, in...
Mazdak
Yelp's Transformation: From Review Revolution to Advertising Efficiency
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a...
a year ago
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. Shifting from a sales-driven model to a self-service advertising engine, Yelp has achieved significant efficiency gains and revitalized its...
FIRE v London
July ’24: New UK government
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
5 months ago
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
10 months ago
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #170
The Precautionary Principle, GEICO Layoffs, Superlinear Returns, TIPS for Retirement, Rockefeller's...
a year ago
The Precautionary Principle, GEICO Layoffs, Superlinear Returns, TIPS for Retirement, Rockefeller's advice to his son, Impact of GLP-1 agonists, Tesla's IPO, Conference call transcripts, and more ...
The Rational Walk
Poor Charlie’s Almanack
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five...
9 months ago
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five psychological tendencies that can cause human misjudgment.
Calculated Risk
Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
a week ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
a year ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
Moneyness
Are flatcoins a good idea?
I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea.
The idea for flatcoins has...
a year ago
I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea.
The idea for flatcoins has been around for a while, but it got a wider airing when it popped up in a Coinbase marketing piece from earlier this year. Now, arch-crypto hater Nouriel Roubini has undergone a...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #216
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement",...
3 months ago
Trading Berkshire, The Theban Plays, The laws of economics, Fed fairy tales, Buffett's "retirement", Caro's writing process, Buffett's ground rules, Sherwin Williams, Mysterious owls
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices
The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire...
9 months ago
The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices was not a party to the agreement but its business model will still be affected.
Mazdak
In the AI Race: Embrace Commoditization, Focus on Customer Value
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for...
a year ago
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for attention and a slice of the market pie. In this competitive environment, it's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of proprietary components and cutting-edge algorithms,...
Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
3 months ago
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
Citation Needed
Substackers Against Nazis
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
a year ago
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #189
Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty...
11 months ago
Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty hours in the Vision Pro, Fairfax Financial, Parks America, Howard Marks, Danny Myer
Commoncog
Executing on Becoming Data Driven: The Technicals
A technical overview of how I'm applying the methods and ideas of the Becoming Data Driven in...
a year ago
A technical overview of how I'm applying the methods and ideas of the Becoming Data Driven in Business series.
Mazdak
Inside xAI: Musk vs. OpenAI
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his...
a month ago
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his former company, OpenAI, to do it.
balajis.com
#1 - Vitalik Buterin on Starting New Countries, Upgrading Ethereum, and Improving Yourself
Listen now (118 min) | A discussion between Vitalik Buterin and Balaji Srinivasan on starting new...
a year ago
Listen now (118 min) | A discussion between Vitalik Buterin and Balaji Srinivasan on starting new countries, improving yourself, and upgrading Ethereum. OUTLINE 00:00 - Introduction 01:27 - A brief history of Ethereum 16:54 - The DAO hack 20:32 - The Devcon 2 attack 33:24 - The...
Bits about Money
Credit cards as a legacy system
Credit cards have been in use for almost 75 years. Some long-ago decisions still cause consequences...
over a year ago
Credit cards have been in use for almost 75 years. Some long-ago decisions still cause consequences in the present day. But change is possible.
Commoncog
What To Think When Looking at a Chart
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb...
a year ago
In a business context, what should you think when presented with a time series? Or: a really dumb question that nobody seems to talk about.
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual...
3 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in...
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
A brief excerpt:
Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #160
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan,...
a year ago
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan, Flawed memories, Podcast interviews with Rudy Havenstein, Doomberg, Paul Graham, and Guy Spier.
Mazdak
Can Quantum Break Crypto? Trump to Rescue TikTok? Tech in Defence ...
Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
2 weeks ago
Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
The Diff
The Large- and Small-Home Market Advantages
Plus! Who Bears Ban Risk?; Carvana and Short-Selling Economics; VC; Productivity; A More Normal...
a week ago
Plus! Who Bears Ban Risk?; Carvana and Short-Selling Economics; VC; Productivity; A More Normal Economy
Bits about Money
Money laundering and AML compliance
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
a year ago
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI)
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
10 months ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
The Rational Walk
Buffett Resumes Occidental Purchases
Berkshire spent $246.4 million to acquire 3.9 million OXY shares between October 23 and October 25.
a year ago
Berkshire spent $246.4 million to acquire 3.9 million OXY shares between October 23 and October 25.
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
A brief excerpt:
Total housing starts in November were below expectations, however, starts in September and October were revised up slightly, combined.
Total...
balajis.com
The Fiat Crisis
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
a year ago
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #227
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI...
a month ago
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI Statistics, Ergodicity, The End of Shame, Notre Dame, Online Censorship, Healthcare Costs
Commoncog
What Rigorous Process Improvement in Education Looks Like
What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
3 months ago
What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should do this in your own organisational contexts.
Moneyness
The strange new world of multifunctional assets
I would never own it, but the cryptocurrency BNB is probably one of the strangest most interesting...
a year ago
I would never own it, but the cryptocurrency BNB is probably one of the strangest most interesting assets I've ever analyzed. No other asset (perhaps ever?) provides its owner with so much functionality.
Is the sort of multi-functionality offered by assets like BNB a feature...
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
9 months ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
Calculated Risk
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
A brief...
4 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
A brief excerpt:
During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent...
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
9 months ago
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
Mazdak
AI Energy Fears: Overblown or the Next Crisis?
Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
a month ago
Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
The Rational Walk
Measuring Competence
Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as...
3 months ago
Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as clear when it comes to investing.
Commoncog
The Skill of Capital
What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk...
a year ago
What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk through three stories, and then talk about the shape of the skill in practice.
The Diff
Where do AI Agents Get Deployed First?
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
a month ago
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
Commoncog
Executing on Becoming Data Driven
Every analytics project consists of two parts. The technical part, and then the 'get the...
a year ago
Every analytics project consists of two parts. The technical part, and then the 'get the organisation on board' part. We talk about why the latter is the real challenge.
Mazdak
RRSP Guide for New Immigrants to Canada: Everything You Need to Know
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the...
a month ago
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP).
Moneyness
Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new...
2 months ago
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new and very strange policy.
All Finns were required to take out a pair of scissors and snip their banknotes in half. This was known in Finland as setelinleikkaus, or banknote cutting....
The Rational Walk
Hesiod’s Works and Days
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it...
8 months ago
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it was 2,700 years ago.
The Diff
Moderation, Inside and Out
Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More...
9 hours ago
Plus! General-Purpose Technologies; Growth and Concentration; Cross-Platform; The Amazon Model; More Round-Trips
Musings on Markets
Putting the (Insta)cart before the (Grocery) horse: A COVID Favorite's Reality Check!
After years of rumors of an imminent IPO, Instacart has finally filed for a public offering of it’s...
a year ago
After years of rumors of an imminent IPO, Instacart has finally filed for a public offering of it’s shares, aspiring to raise about $600 million from markets, at a pricing of about $9-$10 billion for its equity. Coming in the week after ARM, an AI chip designer, also filed to go...
Bits about Money
Deposit insurance maximization as a service
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some...
a year ago
In the wake of the recent banking crisis, there is some attention to deposit insurance limits. Some products increase them; here is how.
Musings on Markets
A Zomato 2022 Update: Value, Pricing and the Gap
On July 21, 2021, I valued Zomato just ahead of its initial public offering at about ₹41 per share....
over a year ago
On July 21, 2021, I valued Zomato just ahead of its initial public offering at about ₹41 per share. The market clearly had a very different view, as the stock premiered at ₹74 per share and soared into the stratosphere, peaking at ₹169 per share in late 2021. The last few months...
Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
a year ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #206
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of...
6 months ago
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of Silicon Valley, Self-esteem and outer scorecards, MMT's founder is worried about deficits
Seeking Wisdom
How a Machine Learns
How a fly helped Descartes to invent the Cartesian plane René Descartes (1596 – 1650), the famous...
a year ago
How a fly helped Descartes to invent the Cartesian plane René Descartes (1596 – 1650), the famous philosopher and mathematician, was lying in his bed, eyes fixed on a fly on the ceiling. As he pondered how to accurately describe the fly’s position, Descartes visualized the...
Farnam Street
Why Write
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an...
a year ago
Why write an essay when you can type a few words and have AI generate one for you? Why write an email when AI can auto-respond for you with all the typical pleasantries and talking-points? While AI doing these things for you is likely to happen, it’s not necessarily a good thing....
FIRE v London
From ISA $millionaire to £millionaire
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put...
4 months ago
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put £20k per year into an ISA account – use it for a wide range of investing activities – and not even have to report on what happens in those accounts, let alone pay tax on them.…...
Commoncog
A Big Part of Being Data Driven is Will Not Skill
What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming...
6 months ago
What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming data driven in business more broadly.
Calculated Risk
Moody's: Retail Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q4
Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased...
4 days ago
Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High
Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock, Office’s Vacancy Rate Broke Another Record, Retail Rents Drift Higher with Tight Supply,...
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
a year ago
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
balajis.com
The Mirrortable
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and...
over a year ago
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and internationalize the logistical mess of angel investing.
Citation Needed
25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious...
9 months ago
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious crime."
The Diff
Meta's Least-Untrusted Clone Model
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More...
3 weeks ago
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More YouTube AI IP
The Rational Walk
The Digest #173
Berkshire's Q3 earnings, Munger on retailing, SBF's strange philosophy, Rob Henderson on reading,...
a year ago
Berkshire's Q3 earnings, Munger on retailing, SBF's strange philosophy, Rob Henderson on reading, Howard Marks on a full return world, Morgan Housel on writing that sells, Cities on Mars
Mazdak
Protect Your iPhone: Apple Introduces Stolen Device Protection
Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device...
a year ago
Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device Protection, currently available to beta testers. This feature adds an extra layer of protection to your personal information and financial data, making it more difficult for thieves to...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.4% to 3.1%
From Goldman:
Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4%...
2 weeks ago
From Goldman:
Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3% [Dec 20th estimate]
emphasis added
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model...
The Rational Walk
Roth IRA Conversions For Early Retirees
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and...
3 months ago
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and avoid falling into a high tax bracket.
The Rational Walk
Just Hold the Goddamn Stock!
Charlie Munger's solution to estate planning at Berkshire was simple: Just Hold the Goddamn Stock!...
3 months ago
Charlie Munger's solution to estate planning at Berkshire was simple: Just Hold the Goddamn Stock! Unfortunately, his advice is not easy to follow.
Moneyness
Your finances are being snooped on. Here's how
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite...
6 months ago
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite able to articulate how. We know that we're being snooped on by two groups, corporations and the government. This post will focus on how the government snoops on our transactions,...
Musings on Markets
The School Bell Rings: Time for Class!
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting...
12 months ago
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting in a couple of weeks, I would like to invite you, if you are interested, to come along for the ride. I know! I know! Most of you are not enrolled at NYU, paying nosebleed prices,...
Citation Needed
Issue 71 – (Crypto) banks are not your friends
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech...
a month ago
Celsius’ Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty to fraud, some Tornado Cash sanctions are overturned, and tech billionaires complain about “debanking”.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2024: Danger and Opportunity - Bringing Risk into the Equation!
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023,...
11 months ago
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound. In this post, I look at risk, a central theme in finance and...
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