Mazdak
Big Tech Ad Boom
Tech giants are raking in cash as the digital ad market explodes!
2 months ago
Tech giants are raking in cash as the digital ad market explodes!
Calculated Risk
Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
balajis.com
The Network School
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at...
4 months ago
We’re starting a new school near Singapore for the dark talent of the world. Apply online at ns.com/apply.
Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI)
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
10 months ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
Calculated Risk
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up...
2 weeks ago
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough). I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a...
Mazdak
2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to...
a year ago
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to generate human-quality text, while chipmaker Nvidia pushed the boundaries of what's possible with graphics processing units (GPUs). But amidst the hype, there were also concerns about...
Moneyness
What does the recent ruling on the Emergencies Act mean for your banking rights?
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy...
11 months ago
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy protest in 2022 contravened the protestor's rights. In this post I want to provide my reading of this particular ruling and what is at stake for Canadians and their bank...
Citation Needed
Issue 72 – A seat at the table
The SEC is still busy even though it may soon be undermined, crypto industry capture of government...
2 weeks ago
The SEC is still busy even though it may soon be undermined, crypto industry capture of government continues to worsen, and several media outlets botch their crypto reporting at a time it’s needed most.
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 16th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 26.6% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now...
3 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now 7.7% below the peak for the year (8 weeks ago).
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #177
Remembering Charlie Munger
a year ago
Remembering Charlie Munger
Mazdak
TFSA 2025: Your Complete Guide to Tax-Free Savings in Canada
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to...
a month ago
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to be a bright spot for Canadian investors.
Mazdak
OpenAI in Turmoil: Altman and Brockman Join Microsoft, Employees Revolt
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the...
a year ago
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the non-profit research company behind groundbreaking artificial intelligence advancements, are joining Microsoft to lead a new research unit. This move comes after failed talks to reinstate...
The Rational Walk
Coffee Can Investing
Sometimes an investing approach that is not necessarily "rational" from an economic perspective can...
a year ago
Sometimes an investing approach that is not necessarily "rational" from an economic perspective can produce superior results when one accounts for human nature.
Calculated Risk
December Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.7 million SAAR, Up 5% YoY
From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on...
2 weeks ago
From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on Inventory (pay content). Brief excerpt:
Improved affordability is the main thrust to the end-of-year improvement in demand, with higher consumer confidence also likely a...
Mazdak
RRSP vs TFSA: Making the Right Choice for Your Financial Future
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful...
2 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful investment vehicles available to Canadians.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #210
Disinflation vs. Deflation, Zooming Out, Warren Buffett's Apple Sales, Teens without Smartphones,...
4 months ago
Disinflation vs. Deflation, Zooming Out, Warren Buffett's Apple Sales, Teens without Smartphones, Adam Wright, Joel Greenblatt, Robert Kierlin, Bruce Berkowitz, Jeremy Grantham
Musings on Markets
META Lesson 1: Corporate Governance
As we get deeper into earnings season for the third quarter of 2022, the biggest negative surprises...
over a year ago
As we get deeper into earnings season for the third quarter of 2022, the biggest negative surprises are coming from technology companies, with the tech giants leading the way. Investors, used to a decade of better-than-expected earnings and rising stock prices at these companies,...
balajis.com
Crypto Twitter Found SBF's Fraud
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
a year ago
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
The Rational Walk
Real Estate Adventures
Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with...
9 months ago
Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with realtors, one positive and one negative.
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in...
21 hours ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
A brief excerpt:
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Mazdak
Twitter vs. Instagram Threads: The Battle for the Short-Form Social Media Crown
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both...
a year ago
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both offer users a way to share short-form content, but they have different approaches to how that content is displayed and consumed. Twitter is a more public platform, where anyone can...
Musings on Markets
The Wisdom and Madness of Crowds: Market Prices as Political Predictors!
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as...
2 months ago
In this, the first full week in November 2024, the big news stories of this week are political, as the US presidential election reached its climactic moment on Tuesday, but I don't write about politics, not because I do not have political views, but because I reserve those views...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #174
Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions,...
a year ago
Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions, The AI Gold Rush, 100th anniversary of Hitler's beer hall putsch, The Federalist Papers
Citation Needed
Issue 45 – I'm the director now
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker...
a year ago
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker decides to manifest a new job for themselves.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 1
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts...
a year ago
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Take the statement, ‘I will only go for a walk if it’s nice outside AND I have free time.’ This can be neatly represented using a truth table. We can…
Bits about Money
Debanking (and Debunking?)
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for...
a month ago
Crypto advocates kicked off a recent, somewhat politicized, discussion of debanking. Strap in for scintillating banking compliance trivia.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage...
yesterday
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage purchase applications index.
ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 143,000, down from 146,000 jobs added in...
Commoncog
Under The Hood
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
a month ago
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
Mazdak
Mastering Twitter/X Growth: Strategies to Skyrocket Your Follower Count
Twitter/X stands as one of the leading platforms for sharing ideas, connecting with others, and...
a year ago
Twitter/X stands as one of the leading platforms for sharing ideas, connecting with others, and building your personal brand. With the right strategies, you can transform your Twitter presence into a thriving community of engaged followers. In this blog post, I'll dive into...
The Rational Walk
There’s Always a Reason
Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an...
a year ago
Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an important option for customers chronically short on cash.
Bits about Money
Fiction and Finance
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
3 months ago
Recommendations of works of fiction of interest to financial practitioners or enthusiasts.
Moneyness
Monetagium
An English penny minted by William the Conqueror, who brought monetagium to England. Source: History...
7 months ago
An English penny minted by William the Conqueror, who brought monetagium to England. Source: History in Coins
The way that a modern mafia protection racket works is the mafia starts doing very bad things to regular folks, say you and your business. To stop the damage, you pay...
Moneyness
Inflation as a tax
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order...
a year ago
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order to fight his wars. This provided Henry with the financial firepower to annex the city of Boulogne from the French in 1544, albeit at the price of England experiencing one of its...
Mazdak
Can Zuckerberg Challenge Google's Search Empire?
Mark Zuckerberg is making a bold move to challenge Google's long-standing dominance in the search...
2 months ago
Mark Zuckerberg is making a bold move to challenge Google's long-standing dominance in the search engine market.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #207
Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed...
5 months ago
Claim Checks, Herodotus, Berkshire at record highs, Folly of certainty, Advance Auto Parts, Flawed memories, Lost knowledge, Todd Combs, Walter Schloss, Bob Noyce, Nietzsche, Lincoln
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Richmond Fed...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December.
NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2023: The Earnings Test
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to...
a year ago
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside. During the course of the year, investors also...
Mazdak
Who Should You Ask for Feedback?
Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new...
a year ago
Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new ideas, and stay ahead of the competition. But not all feedback is created equal. If you want to get the most out of feedback, you need to ask the right people.
Citation Needed
Not just one bad apple: FTX's practices were business as usual in crypto
Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret...
a week ago
Adversary cases from the FTX collapse further expose how crypto companies do business: with secret acquisitions of “grey area” businesses, buying influence, and creative accounting.
The Rational Walk
Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on...
7 months ago
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on education, ethics, religion, and many other subjects.
Mazdak
Regulating Crypto
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end...
a month ago
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end for crypto, or a necessary step towards mainstream adoption?
Commoncog
Dancing Landscapes in Business
Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the...
over a year ago
Cognitive Flexibility Theory creator Rand Spiro on what complexity theory has to say about the wickedness of business.
Citation Needed
Guilty or coerced? Ryan Salame’s last interviews before prison
Unpacking my conversation with FTX executive Ryan Salame, where we discussed his claims that he’s...
2 months ago
Unpacking my conversation with FTX executive Ryan Salame, where we discussed his claims that he’s innocent of the charges for which he’s now serving seven and a half years in prison.
Mazdak
CPP vs OAS: Understanding Canada's Core Retirement Benefits 🇨🇦
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension...
a month ago
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS).
Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit increased to $78.2 Billion in November
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S....
2 days ago
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today
that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November, up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in
October, revised.
...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #225
A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role...
a month ago
A Dangerous Interregnum, Trump's Energy Policy, Damodaran on ESG, Buffett in 1970, Inflation's Role in Trump's Victory, Taxes in Retirement, James J. Hill, IKEA, F. A. Hayek, Shakespeare
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of...
9 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of Anne Frank, Endurance, Crime and Punishment, and the Iliad.
Commoncog
The 2022 Commoncog Recap
This was the final newsletter edition sent out to subscribers at the end of 2022. A recap of...
over a year ago
This was the final newsletter edition sent out to subscribers at the end of 2022. A recap of Commoncog's best ideas, and a preview of several upcoming experiments.
The Rational Walk
The Cost of Corporate Security
The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that...
a month ago
The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that justifies higher corporate spending to protect executives.
Calculated Risk
Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #158
Claude Shannon's mighty mouse, Ben Graham's father, Doomberg quits Twitter, FASB segment disclosure...
a year ago
Claude Shannon's mighty mouse, Ben Graham's father, Doomberg quits Twitter, FASB segment disclosure rules, Podcasts on old annual reports, Henry Ford's road trips, Jony Ive, Sal Kahn
The Rational Walk
The Trust Deficit
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the...
6 months ago
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the urgent need to correct course.
Moneyness
Where now FedNow?
Earlier this month the Federal Reserve introduced its new instant retail payments system, FedNow....
a year ago
Earlier this month the Federal Reserve introduced its new instant retail payments system, FedNow. This is actually the U.S.'s second real-time retail settlement system. The first, The Clearing House's Real Time Payments Network, or RTP, opened for business back in 2017.
As FedNow...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #184
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing,...
12 months ago
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing, Damodaran's 2024 data update, Michael Ovitz, Live Oak, Red Bull, Capital allocation
Commoncog
Focus on the Cases
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than...
over a year ago
Professor Rand Spiro on why (and how!) business cases are more important to learn from than synthesised business concepts.
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
Mazdak
Inflation finally chills out! Americans rejoice & recession whispers fade as prices dip and spending...
The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first...
a year ago
The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first decline since way back in 2020! This ain't no mirage, folks - inflation is cooling down, and the Fed's fight against skyrocketing prices is showing real results!
Moneyness
Circle says its USDC stablecoin was as diversified as possible. Is that accurate?
There's a good article by Leo Schwartz on stablecoin issuer Circle, which provides some clarity into...
a year ago
There's a good article by Leo Schwartz on stablecoin issuer Circle, which provides some clarity into last March's big depegging of the USDC stablecoin, and Circle's subsequent bailout by the government.
I wrote about the whole thing here, but the short version is that a handful...
Musings on Markets
The Corporate Life Cycle: Corporate Finance, Valuation and Investing Implications!
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children...
4 months ago
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children are quick to point out my age, and I accept that reality, for the most part. I understand that I am too old to exercise without stretching first or eat a heaping plate of cheese...
Commoncog
A Most Unlikely Master of Capital Allocation
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in...
a year ago
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in her life, then perhaps you could, too.
Calculated Risk
Moody's: Retail Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q4
Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased...
3 days ago
Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High
Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock, Office’s Vacancy Rate Broke Another Record, Retail Rents Drift Higher with Tight Supply,...
Calculated Risk
December 20th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
FIRE v London
Feb ’23: taking profits
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling...
a year ago
February was cold, but mercifully dry. The days are becoming a welcome bit longer. London is filling up again, post covid, though Mondays and Fridays remain subdued to put it mildly. Market movements in February In the markets, February started strongly, but then something...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates 25bp
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp...
3 weeks ago
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. However, most market participants now expect the FOMC to pause in January and are split on a rate cut at the March...
Moneyness
Who should pay for scams? Victims or their banks?
Scam call centre on CCTV, via BBC.
Here's a question for you. Should banks be required to...
a year ago
Scam call centre on CCTV, via BBC.
Here's a question for you. Should banks be required to reimburse customers who have been scammed?
I was recently reading a CBC article about a 63-year old Toronto man who responded to a phone call from a scammer claiming to be a Bank of...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual...
3 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities!
It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget...
a year ago
It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even...
balajis.com
#3 - The President of Palau
Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is...
a year ago
Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is becoming a digital leader, experimenting with everything from on-chain identity to drone delivery. Despite having less than 20,000 citizens, Palau is a full UN member state. Its path to...
The Rational Walk
Thucydides
Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between...
4 months ago
Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between 431 - 404 BC.
Commoncog
Executing on Becoming Data Driven: The Technicals
A technical overview of how I'm applying the methods and ideas of the Becoming Data Driven in...
a year ago
A technical overview of how I'm applying the methods and ideas of the Becoming Data Driven in Business series.
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: A July 2023 Update!
I have looked at country risk, in all its dimensions, towards the middle of each year, for the last...
a year ago
I have looked at country risk, in all its dimensions, towards the middle of each year, for the last decade, for many reasons. One is curiosity, as political and economic crises roll through regions of the world, roiling long-held beliefs about safe and risky countries. The other...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in...
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home...
a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
The Rational Walk
The Year in Review
Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
a year ago
Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
Commoncog
The Idea Maze is a Useless Idea
Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business...
4 months ago
Product market fit is a crapshoot. Here's what's actually useful in the hunt for a new business idea.
Citation Needed
Caroline Ellison: A woman with agency or a helpless pawn?
Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX...
3 months ago
Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX collapse?
Mazdak
Google's AI Search Tool: A Traffic Nightmare for Publishers?
AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
a year ago
AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
Calculated Risk
Monday: New Home Sales
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024
Ten Economic Questions for 2025
Chicago Fed National...
2 weeks ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024
Ten Economic Questions for 2025
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data.
Durable Goods Orders for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease.
New Home Sales for November from...
Farnam Street
Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions....
over a year ago
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. *** When we seek to intervene in any system created by someone, it’s not enough to view...
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023!
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
11 months ago
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
FIRE v London
June ’24: Election fever
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west...
6 months ago
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west country, the south coast and the Isle of Wight; partly overseas – I visited Ibiza for a few days of R&R. Meanwhile, the election campaigns were in full swing. Nigel Farage did his...
Commoncog
Stan Slap on the Art of Building Effective Employee Cultures
Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent...
a month ago
Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent model for shaping employee culture.
Mazdak
Salary vs. Dividends: Picking the Right Paycheck as a Business Owner
Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner...
11 months ago
Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner faces unique financial considerations. One critical choice arises early on: to pay yourself a salary or take dividends? Understanding the pros and cons of each path empowers you to...
Moneyness
Are flatcoins a good idea?
I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea.
The idea for flatcoins has...
a year ago
I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea.
The idea for flatcoins has been around for a while, but it got a wider airing when it popped up in a Coinbase marketing piece from earlier this year. Now, arch-crypto hater Nouriel Roubini has undergone a...
Mazdak
The Dangers of AI "Answers"
From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring...
a month ago
From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring the lines between fact and fiction.
Commoncog
Setting the Business Expertise Series Free
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her...
a year ago
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her collaborators.
FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
10 months ago
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd...
3 weeks ago
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays.
----- Monday, December 16th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
FIRE v London
Sep ’24: Ominous politics, juicy economics
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the...
2 months ago
September was fairly action-packed. I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the Solent. I made it to the Labour party conference in Liverpool, which was fascinating albeit wet. I am apparently firmly in the tax-raising sights of the Government, but I wasn’t the...
Musings on Markets
Invisible, yet Invaluable: Valuing Intangibles in the Birkenstock IPO!
A few days ago, I valued Instacart ahead of its initial public offering, and noted that the...
a year ago
A few days ago, I valued Instacart ahead of its initial public offering, and noted that the reception that the stock gets will be a good barometer of where risk capital stands in the market, right now. After a buzzy open, when the stock jumped from its offering price of $30 a...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #185
Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at...
11 months ago
Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at Alibaba's IPO, Chris Davis, Outsider CEOs, Shareholder activists, Oprah
Farnam Street
Focus to Win
Anyone can say no to bad ideas, but only a focused person can say no to good ideas. Focus is about...
over a year ago
Anyone can say no to bad ideas, but only a focused person can say no to good ideas. Focus is about saying no. When talking about one of the biggest lessons he learned from Steve Jobs, Jonny Ive said it was focus. This sounds really simplistic, but it still shocks me how few...
Mazdak
Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and...
12 months ago
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and battling for the last box of Oreos. The retail giant is about to revolutionize your shopping experience with a generative AI makeover. Imagine this: You're planning a Super Bowl bash,...
Moneyness
China is slowly joining the economic war against Russia
I recently shared a chart on Twitter showing Chinese exports of ball bearings to Russia. Here it...
5 months ago
I recently shared a chart on Twitter showing Chinese exports of ball bearings to Russia. Here it is:
Having accelerated after Putin's invasion of Ukraine to a run-rate of around US$5-7 million per month in 2023, Chinese ball bearing exports to Russia have been ratcheted down...
Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.8% YoY in November
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
2 weeks ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2024.
CPI Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in November, down from 4.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
FIRE v London
July ’24: New UK government
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
5 months ago
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
Mazdak
Today's Top Tech News - Amazon's Discount Store
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
a month ago
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
Mazdak
Decentralization Debate: Unpacking Bluesky's Architecture
Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it...
a month ago
Is Bluesky REALLY decentralized? Join us as we analyze Bluesky's architecture and discuss whether it truly lives up to the hype.
Bits about Money
The infrastructure behind ATMs
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
over a year ago
ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
Musings on Markets
A Return to Teaching: The Spring 2023 Edition
If, as you read this post, it feels like you have read it or a close variant before, it is because...
over a year ago
If, as you read this post, it feels like you have read it or a close variant before, it is because you have. Each year, ahead of teaching my classes at NYU's Stern School of Business in the spring, I invite readers to accompany me on my journey, and this year is no different....
Moneyness
The intensifying effort to isolate Russia's banks
Last week the U.S. government expanded the coverage of its secondary sanctions to encompass most of...
6 months ago
Last week the U.S. government expanded the coverage of its secondary sanctions to encompass most of Russia's banks. It's a very big step, one that has been long-awaited by sanctions watchers, and will likely have significant repercussions for Russia and its trading partners....
Mazdak
The Latest in Smartglasses Tech
From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of...
a month ago
From Samsung's latest specs to the buzz surrounding Apple's potential entry, the world of smartglasses is heating up!
Mazdak
Big Tech Donating to Trump's Inaugural Fund, Teens' Online Habits, More Tech Updates
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on...
3 weeks ago
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on Prime Video 😀
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
8 months ago
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
Bits about Money
The Bond villain compliance strategy
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out...
a year ago
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out for Binance and its CEO. Spoiler: poorly.
Calculated Risk
Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
4 days ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). ...
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
a year ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
Commoncog
Lesley Sim on Skill Acceleration in Ultimate
Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World...
a year ago
Cedric talks to Lesley Sim about her experience coaching the Singaporean Ultimate Women's World Championship Team in 2020, her approach to skill acceleration, and why a teaching technique designed for dogs and dolphins works just as well on humans!
Musings on Markets
The Sugar Daddy Effect? Corporate venture capital, Sovereign funds and Green Energy!
It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would...
2 months ago
It is a sign of the times that I spent some time thinking about whether the title of my post would offend some people, as sexist or worse. I briefly considering expanding the title to "Sugar Daddies and Molasses Mommies", but that just sounds awkward, or even replacing the words...
Mazdak
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed...
a year ago
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed as contributions to nonprofit organizations. Shares of Amazon fell 1.8% on Nov. 15 and 0.3% on Nov. 16. Bezos still holds 988.3 million shares of Amazon, around 10% of the company.
Calculated Risk
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
A brief excerpt:
We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage...
Commoncog
An Increase in Membership Prices
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old...
a year ago
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
8 months ago
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
Mazdak
Fed Signals Shift to Easing: Rate Cuts Likely in 2024, Economy Expected to Remain Solid.
The Federal Reserve is signalling a change of course, and it's music to the ears of businesses,...
a year ago
The Federal Reserve is signalling a change of course, and it's music to the ears of businesses, investors, and everyday Americans. After two years of aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation, the central bank is now laying the groundwork for a shift towards easing
Mazdak
AI Gone Wrong? Can Chatbots Be Held Responsible for Suicide?
This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and...
2 months ago
This episode examines the tragic case of a teenager who became obsessed with an AI companion bot and later died by suicide.
Musings on Markets
Dealing with Aging: Updating the Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks Stories!
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that...
4 months ago
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that the corporate life cycle can explain what happens to companies as they age, and why they have to adapt to aging with their actions and choices. In parallel, I also noted that...
The Diff
That Top-of-Cycle Feeling
Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
3 weeks ago
Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
The Rational Walk
The Digest #175
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount...
a year ago
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount rates, Evolving moats, Jay Gould, Garry Tan, Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Steve Ells
Mazdak
Top 10 Finance News Headlines for Thursday, November 30th, 2023 📈📰
📈 Stocks Soar: The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 500 points on Thursday, closing at...
a year ago
📈 Stocks Soar: The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 500 points on Thursday, closing at its highest level of the year. The rally was fueled by optimism about the economy and a slowdown in inflation. 🚀 💼 Peltz Takes Aim at Disney: Activist investor Nelson Peltz is...
The Rational Walk
Prometheus Bound
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus...
7 months ago
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus dating back to the fifth century BC.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth
From housing economist Tom Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Incorporate Revised Methodology for Estimating Net International Migration, Show...
Moneyness
How should money laundering laws apply to DeFi?
Everyone agrees that money laundering laws apply to DeFi. The question is: how to apply them?
DeFi,...
3 months ago
Everyone agrees that money laundering laws apply to DeFi. The question is: how to apply them?
DeFi, or decentralized finance, is an emerging segment of the broader financial industry that delivers traditional financial services, say like trading or lending, using a novel type of...
The Rational Walk
Roth IRA Conversions For Early Retirees
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and...
3 months ago
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and avoid falling into a high tax bracket.
Musings on Markets
In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!
In every introductory finance class, you begin with the notion of a risk-free investment, and the...
a year ago
In every introductory finance class, you begin with the notion of a risk-free investment, and the rate on that investment becomes the base on which you build, to get to expected returns on risky assets and investments. In fact, the standard practice that most analysts and...
Mazdak
Canada Tax Brackets 2025 🇨🇦
As we head into 2025, understanding Canada's tax brackets is crucial for both individuals and...
a month ago
As we head into 2025, understanding Canada's tax brackets is crucial for both individuals and businesses.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 2023 Results
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices,...
a year ago
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices, Clayton Homes, Apple, and share repurchases.
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in November
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production (IP)...
3 weeks ago
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production (IP) moved down 0.1 percent in November after declining 0.4 percent in October. In November, manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent, boosted by a 3.5 percent increase in the index for motor...
Commoncog
Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do...
11 months ago
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do it. This is everything you need to know to actually become data driven, from scratch, using the same first principles that Amazon, Koch, and Toyota used back in their day.
Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US)
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
12 months ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #221
Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro:...
2 months ago
Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro: Success or Failure?, Berkshire in the 1960s, Whole Foods, Black Diamond, Merck, Wormholes
Mazdak
Google's Gemini Enters the AI Arena: Ready to Take on OpenAI?
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This...
a year ago
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This powerful AI is set to shake things up, potentially rivaling big names like OpenAI and Microsoft. What's the Buzz About Gemini? Gemini comes in three flavors:
Musings on Markets
The Siren Song of Sustainability: The Theocratic Trifecta's Third Leg!
You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in...
a month ago
You might know, by now, of my views on ESG, which I have described as an empty acronym, born in sanctimony, nurtured in hypocrisy and sold with sophistry. My voyage with ESG began with curiosity in my 2019 exploration of what it purported to measure, turned to cynicism as the...
Mazdak
Nvidia Takes the Crown: The AI Chip Giant Dethrones Apple
Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
2 months ago
Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
Musings on Markets
Putting the (Insta)cart before the (Grocery) horse: A COVID Favorite's Reality Check!
After years of rumors of an imminent IPO, Instacart has finally filed for a public offering of it’s...
a year ago
After years of rumors of an imminent IPO, Instacart has finally filed for a public offering of it’s shares, aspiring to raise about $600 million from markets, at a pricing of about $9-$10 billion for its equity. Coming in the week after ARM, an AI chip designer, also filed to go...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #180
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting,...
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting, Damodaran on key person risk, Microsoft's IPO, Howard Marks and Annie Duke on risk
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
Musings on Markets
Toys for Billionaires: Sports Franchises as Trophy Assets!
I have always loved sports, playing tennis and cricket when I was growing up, before transitioning...
a year ago
I have always loved sports, playing tennis and cricket when I was growing up, before transitioning to fan status, cheering for my favored teams from the sidelines. I also like finance, perhaps not as much as sports, but there are winners and losers in the investment game as well....
The Rational Walk
The Digest #226
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
a month ago
Warren Buffett donates $1.15 billion to his family foundations
Mazdak
How to Build Wealth: 5 Key Principles
Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is...
a year ago
Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is possible for anyone who is willing to put in the work. Here are 5 key principles to help you build wealth: Live below your means. This is the single most important thing you can do to...
Mazdak
Creating a Data-Driven LinkedIn Strategy: A Step-by-Step Guide
One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its...
2 months ago
One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its performance, and adjust based on data.
The Rational Walk
Buffett Resumes Occidental Purchases
Berkshire spent $246.4 million to acquire 3.9 million OXY shares between October 23 and October 25.
a year ago
Berkshire spent $246.4 million to acquire 3.9 million OXY shares between October 23 and October 25.
Commoncog
Running a Fine Dining Restaurant in a Recession
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about...
5 months ago
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about operating through the capital cycle.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #198
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How...
8 months ago
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How to spend your days, AI and productivity
The Rational Walk
Buffett Continues to Avoid Long-Term Bonds
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to...
a year ago
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to higher interest rates.
balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
5 months ago
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
8 months ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
Mazdak
Trudeau's resignation, Dana White joining Meta's board, YouTube taking on TikTok, SuperIntelligence...
After nearly a decade in leadership, Justin Trudeau announced his decision to step down as Prime...
2 days ago
After nearly a decade in leadership, Justin Trudeau announced his decision to step down as Prime Minister of Canada.
Mazdak
Reddit CEO: Third-Party App Developers Have Made Millions, So They Should Pay for API Access
The Future of Third-Party Reddit Apps: Will They Survive the API Changes? Binance.US Lays Off 50...
a year ago
The Future of Third-Party Reddit Apps: Will They Survive the API Changes? Binance.US Lays Off 50 Employees After SEC Charges. Google Bans AI Chatbots to Protect Sensitive Information. The Future of Third-Party Reddit Apps: Will They Survive the API Changes?
Citation Needed
Issue 69 – Nice
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also,...
2 months ago
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also, election spending hits a fever pitch, with several new crypto PACs coming out of the woodwork.
The Rational Walk
Paid Subscriptions
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
8 months ago
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
10 months ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #168
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's...
a year ago
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's IPO, Costco's clothing, Todd Combs interview, Equifax, and more ...
balajis.com
#4 - The Winklevoss Twins and Balaji
Listen now (50 min) | Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss talk with Balaji about how Washington, DC is...
a year ago
Listen now (50 min) | Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss talk with Balaji about how Washington, DC is losing crypto, while other countries like the UAE and Japan are winning web3. OUTLINE 0:00 - I'm 6'5", 220, and there's two of me! 0:58 - Crypto flippening from America to Asia
The Diff
Meta's Least-Untrusted Clone Model
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More...
2 weeks ago
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More YouTube AI IP
Commoncog
Focus Is Saying No To Good Ideas
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
over a year ago
Several stories about one of the hardest maxims to put to practice in business.
Mazdak
Netflix Discontinues Basic Plan in Canada
Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it...
a year ago
Netflix has stopped offering its Basic subscription plan in Canada. The company has not said if it plans to discontinue the plan altogether, but it is no longer available to new or rejoining members. The Basic plan was the most affordable option for Netflix subscribers in Canada,...
Commoncog
Businesses as Ecosystem Organisms
What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd...
3 months ago
What we can learn from seeing businesses as organisms in an ecosystem ... using the particularly odd example of HEICO being the barnacle to TransDigm’s whale.
The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
10 months ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #167
TIPS for Retirement, BYD vs. Tesla, Katalin Karikó's vindication, Teledyne, Helzberg Diamonds,...
a year ago
TIPS for Retirement, BYD vs. Tesla, Katalin Karikó's vindication, Teledyne, Helzberg Diamonds, Interviews of Marc Andreessen and Shane Parrish, David Senra's review of Jimmy Buffett's autobiography
Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
7 months ago
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024
Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
3 weeks ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024
Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 5.8, down from 31.2.
Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).
WTI futures at $71.12 per...
Mazdak
Subscription Overload: The Rise of Recurring Revenue
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches...
a year ago
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches onto the subscription business model. This is because businesses can make more money up-front and over time by selling subscriptions and building loyalty. They can also mine...
Moneyness
"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did."
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases...
7 months ago
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases wend their way through courts in the Netherlands and the U.S., we continue to learn how society's money laundering laws will be applied to some of the more unique financial entities...
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
10 months ago
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
Moneyness
The first round of U.S. secondary sanctions on Russia is working
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing...
10 months ago
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing payments for a narrow range of products that are on a so-called "green list," reports Ragip Soylu. This broad debanking of Russia by Turkey is part of the fallout from President...
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
11 months ago
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
Mazdak
Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market?
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more...
8 months ago
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more pressing than ever. Soaring property values and rising interest rates have created a complex landscape, leaving many wondering: is homeownership still the golden ticket to building...
Bits about Money
A review of Number Go Up, on crypto shenanigans
A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether...
a year ago
A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether specifically.
Mazdak
Google's Ad Business Under Fire in Europe
Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces...
a year ago
Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe The European Commission has made a formal antitrust complaint against Google and its ad business. In a preliminary opinion, the regulator says Google has...
Mazdak
A Review and Analysis of "The Laws of Human Nature" by Robert Greene
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different...
11 months ago
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different approach in his 2018 book, "The Laws of Human Nature." Instead of focusing on acquiring power over others, he dives deep into the intricate workings of human psychology, unveiling...
Mazdak
Inside xAI: Musk vs. OpenAI
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his...
a month ago
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his former company, OpenAI, to do it.
Bits about Money
KYC and AML: beyond the acronyms
Know Your Customer policies at financial institutions have more nuance than you'd expect.
a year ago
Know Your Customer policies at financial institutions have more nuance than you'd expect.
Commoncog
What Rigorous Process Improvement in Education Looks Like
What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
3 months ago
What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should do this in your own organisational contexts.
Citation Needed
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
4 months ago
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
The Rational Walk
Insurance Loss Reserve Estimates
The ability to accurately estimate loss reserves is a core competency for any well-run insurance...
a year ago
The ability to accurately estimate loss reserves is a core competency for any well-run insurance company. Progressive provides a useful case study in loss reserving practices.
Citation Needed
Substackers Against Nazis
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
a year ago
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
The Rational Walk
The Sad Irons
During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill...
a year ago
During the depths of the Great Depression, Lyndon Johnson was determined to electrify the Texas Hill Country. Success was integral to his path to greater power.
The Diff
What Would it Look Like if The Pod Shop Model Blew Up?
Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
3 weeks ago
Plus! Economic Blocs; Benefits; Headlines; IP and Finance; Squaring the Global Imbalances Circle
The Rational Walk
The Digest #160
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan,...
a year ago
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan, Flawed memories, Podcast interviews with Rudy Havenstein, Doomberg, Paul Graham, and Guy Spier.
Moneyness
Is it legal to mix cash in a jar?
Chris Blec asks the following question:
Source: Twitter
Chris's premise is that it is "not...
a year ago
Chris Blec asks the following question:
Source: Twitter
Chris's premise is that it is "not illegal" for him to get together with a bunch of strangers to mix cash. But that's not quite right. It can be legal. It can also be illegal. To determine which it is, we need to...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #162
Volcker on inflation, Parametric insurance, The futility of guidance, Corporate governance reform,...
a year ago
Volcker on inflation, Parametric insurance, The futility of guidance, Corporate governance reform, Keeping a notebook, Singleton and Teledyne, The pros and cons of cancer screening
Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
7 months ago
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
The Rational Walk
Two Sides of the Same Coin
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the...
11 months ago
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the longer it will take to achieve financial independence.
The Diff
Are VCs Incentivized to be too Nice for Venture Debt?
Plus! Art of the Cram-Down; Transaction Costs; Amazon Air; Bull Markets; Misinformation
a month ago
Plus! Art of the Cram-Down; Transaction Costs; Amazon Air; Bull Markets; Misinformation
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications...
yesterday
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one
week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending January 3, 2025....
The Rational Walk
The Oresteia
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery,...
7 months ago
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery, mankind finds its way toward due process and justice.
Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
a year ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
Commoncog
Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a...
a year ago
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a deliberate practice training program isn't as difficult as you might think.
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-year
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive...
3 weeks ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 December. ...
Occupancy: 59.0% (+0.5%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal...
Mazdak
X's Ad Business Faces Its Toughest Challenge Yet
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are...
a year ago
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are suspending ad spending on the platform. This comes in response to owner Elon Musk's endorsement of an antisemitic post, as well as to a report by Media Matters For America that...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Meeting
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage...
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage purchase applications index.
Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.344 million SAAR, up from 1.311 million SAAR.
Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator...
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
9 months ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
Calculated Risk
Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
4 days ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Mazdak
What is QSBS?
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul...
a year ago
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul into your company, and you want to see it thrive. But taxes can eat into your profits, leaving you feeling frustrated and discouraged. That's where QSBS (Qualified Small Business...
Musings on Markets
Tesla in November 2023 : Story twists and turns, with value consequences!
I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be...
a year ago
I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be misleading, since Tesla never leaves the news. Some of that attention comes from the company's products and innovations, but much of it comes from having Elon Musk as a CEO, a man...
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
a year ago
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
Mazdak
Block, TikTok & Beyond
From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping...
2 months ago
From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping our digital world.
Moneyness
The effects of Russian sanctions as portrayed in YouTube videos
Last month American provocateur Tucker Carlson visited a Russian grocery store. Because it was...
9 months ago
Last month American provocateur Tucker Carlson visited a Russian grocery store. Because it was filled to the brim with food, Carlson claims that western sanctions placed on Russia aren't having an effect. "We've been told sanctions on Russia have had a devastating effect on its
...
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence: Catching Up or Falling Behind?
Apple just launched its new AI features with much fanfare, but are they truly intelligent or just a...
2 months ago
Apple just launched its new AI features with much fanfare, but are they truly intelligent or just a bunch of glowing gradients and sparkle icons?
balajis.com
The Network State Podcast with Balaji
The Network State Podcast with Balaji Srinivasan is on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Anchor.fm,...
a year ago
The Network State Podcast with Balaji Srinivasan is on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Anchor.fm, and thenetworkstate.com/podcast.
Calculated Risk
Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
a week ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
a year ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
balajis.com
The Fiat Crisis
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
a year ago
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
The Rational Walk
The Limits of the 25th Amendment
The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe...
6 months ago
The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe limits that should be acknowledged.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests
Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and...
3 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and now is the sole owner of the energy company.
Citation Needed
I am my own legal department: the promise and peril of “just go independent”
Independent publishing is one important facet of the media ecosystem, and while I love it, I know it...
2 months ago
Independent publishing is one important facet of the media ecosystem, and while I love it, I know it is not the path for everyone.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Evolving Estate Plan
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new...
6 months ago
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new charitable trust run by his children.
Farnam Street
Let Go of the Learning Baggage
We all want to learn better. That means retaining information, processing it, being able to use it...
over a year ago
We all want to learn better. That means retaining information, processing it, being able to use it when needed. More knowledge means better instincts; better insights into opportunities for both you and your organization. You will ultimately produce better work if you give...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP, Existing Home Sales
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly...
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 232 thousand initial claims, down from 242 thousand last week.
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (Third...
Moneyness
Elon Musk's understanding of payments dates back to his PayPal days. It needs an update
[This is a republication of my most recent CoinDesk opinion piece.]
You've
heard the script...
a year ago
[This is a republication of my most recent CoinDesk opinion piece.]
You've
heard the script before. Migrants need to make payments back home to
their family, but cross-border payments are achingly slow, taking days
to process. Luckily, revolutionary new technologies like...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope
Last week...
a week ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope
Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. In fact, on a few...
Moneyness
Stablecoins – a digital version of Swiss bearer savings books
Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and...
5 months ago
Before anti-money laundering laws arrived in Switzerland, anyone could walk into a Swiss bank and open an account without showing any ID. The bank would then issue you something called a bearer savings book, otherwise known as inhabersparheften or livrets d'épargne au porteur....
The Rational Walk
The Digest #223
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected...
2 months ago
Corporate Taxes, Election Gambling in 1916, Berkshire's Cash, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, Market Prices as Political Predictors, The Three Indias, Semiconductor Progress
The Rational Walk
Improving Disclosure for Public Companies
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing...
9 months ago
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing three simple proposals.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #161
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy...
a year ago
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy band-aid; Plus insights from Todd Combs, Michael Burry, Joel Tillinghast, and Lee Ainslie.
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
9 months ago
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
The Rational Walk
The Magic of Compounding
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my...
6 months ago
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my current net worth.
balajis.com
Going Meta
Meta may be Android to Apple's Apple.
a year ago
Meta may be Android to Apple's Apple.
Seeking Wisdom
Focus on the process, not the outcome
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket...
5 months ago
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket team, has two non-negotiables. As an offspinner, you must never get cut, and you must never get driven through the covers. Even when Ravichandran Ashwin takes five wickets, Raman will...
Mazdak
Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open...
a year ago
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open source development has emerged, firing shots at the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. These tech giants have captured much of the AI spotlight in 2023, but the alliance believes...
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
10 months ago
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
Mazdak
Income Splitting with a Lower-Income Spouse: Strategies and Considerations 🇨🇦
Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be...
11 months ago
Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be powerful tools for maximizing tax benefits and building wealth. This article explores various strategies for couples where one spouse earns significantly more than the other,...
The Rational Walk
Concentrated Investments
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the...
a year ago
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the company. What are the risks of concentrated investments in general and Berkshire in particular?
Moneyness
The magnificent Swiss 10-centime coin
The Swiss 10-centime coin has a lot to teach us about monetary economics.
On its face, the Swiss...
2 months ago
The Swiss 10-centime coin has a lot to teach us about monetary economics.
On its face, the Swiss 10-centime (rappen in German) looks like a pretty unremarkable coin. It's the second-lowest value Swiss coin, the Swiss version of America's lowly nickel, the sort of coin that many...
Moneyness
When is a stablecoin a security? The strange case of Binance and BUSD
The SEC has been hinting for several years that stablecoins may be securities. I've always found the...
a year ago
The SEC has been hinting for several years that stablecoins may be securities. I've always found the idea of regulating stablecoins as securities to be a bit odd. No one who buys a stablecoin expects to make a profit. That's because none of the big stablecoins (Tether, BUSD, or...
Seeking Wisdom
Books I loved reading in 2022
over a year ago
Moneyness
In praise of anti-money laundering thresholds
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money...
a year ago
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money laundering thresholds.
In the first story, the New York Times shows how regular folks are increasingly losing their bank accounts because their bank perceives them to be engaging in...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.5% YoY
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
3 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to...
balajis.com
The Network State Book
A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder...
over a year ago
A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder on Amazon.
Mazdak
Tesla's Trump Card: How a Presidency Could Fuel a Trillion-Dollar Boom
What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
2 months ago
What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
a year ago
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
Mazdak
The "Buy, Borrow, Die" Strategy: How the Wealthy Avoid Taxes
The wealthy have a secret weapon when it comes to taxes: the "buy, borrow, die" strategy. This...
a year ago
The wealthy have a secret weapon when it comes to taxes: the "buy, borrow, die" strategy. This strategy allows them to avoid capital gains taxes, interest payments, and estate taxes. Here's how it works: Buy assets and hold them. This could be anything from real estate to stocks...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2023: Inflation and Interest Rates
If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more...
a year ago
If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. The US treasury market, considered by some still as a safe haven, was anything but safe or a haven, especially at the long maturities, as long...
Commoncog
A Big Part of Being Data Driven is Will Not Skill
What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming...
6 months ago
What it's like being data driven in the restaurant business ... and what it tells us about becoming data driven in business more broadly.
Commoncog
The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same...
a year ago
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same time? Deming — who came up with these data techniques — believe that it is possible. I'm not so sure.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides,...
3 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2024, including Thucydides, Sophocles, Persian Fire, Hillbilly Elegy, and more.
Calculated Risk
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Increased Slightly in Q3 2024
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024:
The Industry’s Net Income Decreased...
3 weeks ago
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 2024:
The Industry’s Net Income Decreased From the Prior Quarter, Driven by One-Time Items
Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios
Persists
the industry reported the largest...
Citation Needed
The stones left unturned in the Sam Bankman-Fried trial
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many...
a year ago
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many questions remain about what happened at Bankman-Fried's crypto empire.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2024: Profitability - The End Game for Business?
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free...
11 months ago
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the...
Mazdak
Unlock the Power of Persuasion: The 4-Part Key to Getting What You Want
Imagine having just one skill that could propel your business to unprecedented success.
2 months ago
Imagine having just one skill that could propel your business to unprecedented success.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #194
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation,...
9 months ago
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons of history
Mazdak
Elon Musk Lashes Out at Advertisers Leaving X
⚡️ Musk's Fiery Response to Advertiser Exodus 💥 "Go Fk Yourself," Musk Says to Advertisers** 🚀 X...
a year ago
⚡️ Musk's Fiery Response to Advertiser Exodus 💥 "Go Fk Yourself," Musk Says to Advertisers** 🚀 X CEO Defiant Amidst Advertising Boycott In a fiery exchange at the 2023 DealBook Summit in New York, Elon Musk unleashed a barrage of profanity at advertisers who have pulled their...
balajis.com
The Network State Book
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
----- Monday, December 23rd -----
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National...
2 weeks ago
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
----- Monday, December 23rd -----
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data.
----- Tuesday, December 24th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November. The consensus is for a 0.4%...
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights!
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
2 months ago
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
Moneyness
Central bank digital currencies and the fallacy of immaculate adoption
I recently noticed that the Bank of Jamaica, Jamaica's central bank, has implemented two new...
a year ago
I recently noticed that the Bank of Jamaica, Jamaica's central bank, has implemented two new marketing strategies to drive adoption of its new central bank digital currency, Jam-Dex. Jam-Dex is one of only four operational central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in the world,...
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
a year ago
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
Moneyness
Even crypto mixing deserves a threshold
Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically...
a year ago
Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically record and report our transactions to law enforcement. The logic behind this is that by giving up our personal data, we get more security, albeit at the cost of 1) losing our privacy,...
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.4% to 3.1%
From Goldman:
Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4%...
2 weeks ago
From Goldman:
Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3% [Dec 20th estimate]
emphasis added
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Canvas
Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs...
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway continues to evolve as Warren Buffett celebrates his 93rd birthday with no signs of putting down his paintbrush anytime soon.
Mazdak
The Psychology of Investing: 5 Critical Traps That Can Destroy Your Wealth
The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising...
a month ago
The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising portfolios into cautionary tales.
FIRE v London
July ’23: Markets up, Coutts down
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye...
a year ago
It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye scoff, isn’t that much – London is a fairly dry city – drier than Rome and much drier than Sydney). It has been long trousers weather, for the first time in several years. But at...
The Rational Walk
Measuring Competence
Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as...
3 months ago
Measuring competence is straight forward in many fields, such as carpentry and dentistry, but not as clear when it comes to investing.
Moneyness
The lower limit to silver's usefulness in coinage
A detectorist in Suffolk, England recently found a beautiful halfpenny minted some time between...
a year ago
A detectorist in Suffolk, England recently found a beautiful halfpenny minted some time between 1625-1649, during the reign of King Charles I. This coin, captured in the video below, illustrates an important feature of coinage: the lower limit to silver's usefulness as a monetary...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #211
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist...
4 months ago
Thucydides, Corporate life cycles, Ben Graham's first big win, Buffett's early lesson in activist investing, Perils of forecasting, Orwell's 1984, Guy Spier, Ben Thompson, Estée Lauder
Moneyness
It's time to get rid of "crypto"
Call me a pedant, but I'm not a fan of the word "crypto". It may have been a serviceable category...
10 months ago
Call me a pedant, but I'm not a fan of the word "crypto". It may have been a serviceable category back in 2011 when there was only one type of crypto thingy – bitcoin. But it's ceased to be a meaningful term and, if anything, it causes a regression in understanding.
Source:...
Mazdak
Anthropic's AI Breakthrough & Boeing's Q3 Disaster
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases...
2 months ago
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases mind-blowing new capabilities.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Interest Rates Since the Federal Reserve Began Cutting Rates
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Click on graph for larger image.
10-Year T1PS Yield
2 weeks ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Click on graph for larger image.
10-Year T1PS Yield
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.3% in November; Spending increased 0.4%
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:
Personal income increased...
2 weeks ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:
Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
a year ago
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
Commoncog
Commoncog's Next Phase
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains...
a year ago
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains series free, and one more thing.
balajis.com
The Men's Party
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
11 months ago
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
balajis.com
The Start Of Startup Cities
Miami demonstrates that the era of startup cities is now underway.
a year ago
Miami demonstrates that the era of startup cities is now underway.
Musings on Markets
A Business Upended: Streaming disrupts the Entertainment Business!
It has been an unsettling summer for anyone with a stake in the movie, television and broadcasting...
a year ago
It has been an unsettling summer for anyone with a stake in the movie, television and broadcasting businesses. The strike by screen actors and writers which started in July is now into almost into its third month, with no end in sight, putting at risk the pipeline of movies and...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024
Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025.
----- Monday, December 30th -----
9:45 AM:...
a week ago
Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025.
----- Monday, December 30th -----
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December.
Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index.
Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity...
Citation Needed
When did cryptocurrency policy become a voter issue?
I don’t believe that it has.
5 months ago
I don’t believe that it has.
Mazdak
AI.com to Chat.com: OpenAI's Domain Domination
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've...
a month ago
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've dropped a huge amount of cash – likely over $15.5 million – to snag the premium domain Chat.com.
Citation Needed
Issue 68 – Opportunity agenda
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as...
2 months ago
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as another enters, and Stand With Crypto bets on the favorites.
Moneyness
Renovatio monetae
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of...
8 months ago
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of renovatio monetae. Twice a year whoever held it had to bring it in to be changed for new coins at a rate of four old coins to three new coins. That suggests an annualized tax rate on...
Commoncog
The Shape of a Technological Window
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how...
over a year ago
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how he used it over the course of his career. Note: this is a follow-up to and an update for the Commoncog Case Library Beta.
Moneyness
Your finances are being snooped on. Here's how
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite...
6 months ago
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite able to articulate how. We know that we're being snooped on by two groups, corporations and the government. This post will focus on how the government snoops on our transactions,...
Mazdak
Meta's Shifting Approach to Politics and Content Moderation
Meta is backtracking on its political content policy.
yesterday
Meta is backtracking on its political content policy.
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
5 months ago
Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
Commoncog
Strong at Capital, Bad at Everything Else
Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but...
a year ago
Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but weak in just about everything else.
Bits about Money
BAM is now reader-supported
Bits about Money now offers paid memberships. (Plus, a bonus essay on newsletter financial...
over a year ago
Bits about Money now offers paid memberships. (Plus, a bonus essay on newsletter financial infrastructure.)
Mazdak
How to Use Pain to Fuel Your Personal Evolution
Pain is inevitable, especially if you're chasing ambitious goals. But what if I told you that pain...
a year ago
Pain is inevitable, especially if you're chasing ambitious goals. But what if I told you that pain can be a powerful tool for personal evolution? When you're feeling pain, it's a sign that you need to find a solution. This is an opportunity to learn and grow. If you can develop a...
Bits about Money
Markets in power
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
over a year ago
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
balajis.com
Decentralizing Education with Synthesis
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
over a year ago
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Q3 Flow of Funds
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly...
4 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week.
Producer Price Index for November from the BLS. The...
Citation Needed
Issue 48 – Bitcoin has "no chance" of going to the moon
Bitcoin ETF fakeouts, imaginary CEOs, and a bridge hack make for an eventful start to the new year.
a year ago
Bitcoin ETF fakeouts, imaginary CEOs, and a bridge hack make for an eventful start to the new year.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #171
American Prometheus, Buffett buys more OXY, Share repurchases, Lessons from Todd Combs, The nature...
a year ago
American Prometheus, Buffett buys more OXY, Share repurchases, Lessons from Todd Combs, The nature of risk, Damodaran on markets, Keynes on the Treaty of Versailles, Attia on longevity
FIRE v London
Feeling broke
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is...
a year ago
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is captured in my monthly portfolio updates, I thought it was worth recording some of my emotions while they are still fresh. Two years ago Turning the clock back, my financial...
The Rational Walk
Free Articles!
All articles older than six months are now free to read.
12 months ago
All articles older than six months are now free to read.
Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
a year ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Q&A Session
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual...
8 months ago
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual meeting after Charlie Munger's death.
balajis.com
#5 - India's Largest Exit
Listen now (161 min) | The $16B acquisition of Flipkart was the largest in Indian tech history....
a year ago
Listen now (161 min) | The $16B acquisition of Flipkart was the largest in Indian tech history. Balaji speaks with Flipkart founder/CEO Binny Bansal on how he built the company from scratch when Indian startups weren't even a thing — and how Flipkart's rise parallels the rise of...
Moneyness
Memecoins are the point
Cypherpunks wanted to change the world. We ended up with memecoins.
Our story begins with some very...
2 months ago
Cypherpunks wanted to change the world. We ended up with memecoins.
Our story begins with some very smart and idealistic developers, known as cypherpunks, creating a new technology know as a blockchain. Blockchains are databases, but decentralized. Advertised as being...
Mazdak
OpenAI's Meltdown: A Fight for the Future of AI
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching...
a year ago
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching implications for the future of artificial intelligence (AI). OpenAI, known for its groundbreaking ChatGPT technology, is considered a frontrunner in the AI race, and its fate could...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000
The DOL reported:
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly...
4 weeks ago
The DOL reported:
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to...
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
A brief excerpt:
Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
11 months ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
Mazdak
Compound Interest: A Comprehensive Guide
Compound interest is often called the "eighth wonder of the world" and for good reason.
2 months ago
Compound interest is often called the "eighth wonder of the world" and for good reason.
Commoncog
What is Power?
Understanding how power works in business is necessary to understanding business in developing...
a month ago
Understanding how power works in business is necessary to understanding business in developing markets. A members-only mini series.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #197
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
9 months ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
Moneyness
There are now two types of PayPal dollars, and one is better than the other
PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of...
a year ago
PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of opening a traditional PayPal account to maintain a balance of dollars, PayPal customers can now hold something new called PayPal USD, a crypto version of a dollar. Whereas PayPal USD...
Mazdak
5 best investments during high interest rates
Interest rates are rising, and that means it's time to rethink your investment strategy. When...
a year ago
Interest rates are rising, and that means it's time to rethink your investment strategy. When interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds declines, and stocks can become more volatile. However, there are still a number of investments that can perform well in a high interest...
Calculated Risk
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to All!
High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!)
beach in Newport.
Best Wishes to All!
2 weeks ago
High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!)
beach in Newport.
Best Wishes to All!
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
9 months ago
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
3 months ago
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
Calculated Risk
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November
The Mortgage...
2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.50% as of November 30, 2024. According to MBA’s...
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