Mazdak
Used Car Prices Drop: Should You Buy Now or Wait for Better Deals?
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has...
a year ago
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has begun to exhibit signs of a significant shift. Prices are now decelerating, presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers. This article delves into the key factors driving...
Mazdak
Understanding Family Trusts in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide
What is a Family Trust?
a month ago
Moneyness
Tornado Cash un-OFAC'ed
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado...
a month ago
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado Cash, a bot that can be used for obfuscating crypto, is safe from being sanctioned.
I first wrote about Tornado Cash in 2021, before its legal troubles began, warning of the risks...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #202
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter...
7 months ago
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter syndrome, Decline of higher education, Howard Schultz, Cathie Wood, Robert Hagstrom
Citation Needed
Video: The Cryptocurrency Industry's Unprecedented Election Spending
Let's talk about where the money came from, where it went, the cryptocurrency industry's political...
a month ago
Let's talk about where the money came from, where it went, the cryptocurrency industry's political goals, and what’s next.
Moneyness
A back-of-the-envelope estimate of the size of the US crypto ETF market
I'm hearing all sorts of silly projections about how big the U.S. market for a physical crypto ETFs...
a year ago
I'm hearing all sorts of silly projections about how big the U.S. market for a physical crypto ETFs will be, and how their eventual approval will drive new bitcoin demand and pump its price into the stratosphere.
To date, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has refused...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #169
Apple Watch, Musical Chairs at Dollar General, IPOs, Impact Investing, Buffett in 1988, Mapping the...
a year ago
Apple Watch, Musical Chairs at Dollar General, IPOs, Impact Investing, Buffett in 1988, Mapping the human brain, Interviews of Nassim Taleb, Jensen Huang, John and Patrick Collison, and more ...
Mazdak
X's Ad Business Faces Its Toughest Challenge Yet
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are...
a year ago
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are suspending ad spending on the platform. This comes in response to owner Elon Musk's endorsement of an antisemitic post, as well as to a report by Media Matters For America that...
Mazdak
AI's Energy Problem: Can We Power Progress Without Wrecking the Planet? ⚡️🌎
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai...
a year ago
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai for COP28, it's more important than ever to understand the complex relationship between AI and climate change. Why it matters: AI could become one of the biggest energy guzzlers on...
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights!
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
2 months ago
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
Commoncog
Capital Allocation as an Antidote to Business Luck
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a...
a year ago
The unspoken secret about new company formation is that you need to get lucky. Roll the dice, get a business outcome. Capital allocation matters because it allows you more skill, less luck, on the journey to a large outcome.
Mazdak
The 7 Steps to Becoming a Top Investor
Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going...
a year ago
Do you want to become a great investor? If so, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going to share with you the seven steps that I believe are essential for becoming a top investor. Step 1: Develop a Clear Investment Philosophy The first step to becoming a great...
Farnam Street
Tit For Tat
Tit for tat is a strategy which, according to game theory, is the most effective choice for iterated...
over a year ago
Tit for tat is a strategy which, according to game theory, is the most effective choice for iterated games based on mutual cooperation or defection. Both players benefit if they cooperate, but one benefits and the other loses out if only they defect, and both lose out to a lesser...
Citation Needed
When did cryptocurrency policy become a voter issue?
I don’t believe that it has.
5 months ago
I don’t believe that it has.
Mazdak
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed...
a year ago
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed as contributions to nonprofit organizations. Shares of Amazon fell 1.8% on Nov. 15 and 0.3% on Nov. 16. Bezos still holds 988.3 million shares of Amazon, around 10% of the company.
Moneyness
There are now two types of PayPal dollars, and one is better than the other
PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of...
a year ago
PayPal now offers its customers two types of U.S. dollars. In addition to having the option of opening a traditional PayPal account to maintain a balance of dollars, PayPal customers can now hold something new called PayPal USD, a crypto version of a dollar. Whereas PayPal USD...
Citation Needed
Guilty or coerced? Ryan Salame’s last interviews before prison
Unpacking my conversation with FTX executive Ryan Salame, where we discussed his claims that he’s...
2 months ago
Unpacking my conversation with FTX executive Ryan Salame, where we discussed his claims that he’s innocent of the charges for which he’s now serving seven and a half years in prison.
Commoncog
The Secret at the Heart of Continuous Improvement
Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart...
8 months ago
Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart that doesn't seem to get talked about.
Calculated Risk
Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts...
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential...
a week ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #213
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects,...
4 months ago
Berkshire's Trillion Dollar Milestone, Will Buffett attempt to acquire Chubb?, Intel's Prospects, Personal Bots, Bitcoin, AI vs. Reality, "Useless" Knowledge, Jay Bowen, Rudy Havenstein
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
a year ago
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November
Happy New Year! Best wishes for 2025, Bill
Here are the multi-family 60+ day delinquency rate since 2006.
There is much more...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
11 months ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
Moneyness
Is it legal to mix cash in a jar?
Chris Blec asks the following question:
Source: Twitter
Chris's premise is that it is "not...
a year ago
Chris Blec asks the following question:
Source: Twitter
Chris's premise is that it is "not illegal" for him to get together with a bunch of strangers to mix cash. But that's not quite right. It can be legal. It can also be illegal. To determine which it is, we need to...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2023: Setting the table!
In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each...
over a year ago
In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the first of a series of posts that I make at the start of each year, where I look at data, both macro and company-level. In this post, I...
The Rational Walk
Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of...
a year ago
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of the annual commitments pledged in 2006.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #227
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI...
a month ago
Final Issue: Bitcoin at $100K, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, Blue Chip Stamps, Flawed CPI Statistics, Ergodicity, The End of Shame, Notre Dame, Online Censorship, Healthcare Costs
Citation Needed
New York Times: Crypto's fragile foundations
My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency...
a year ago
My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency industry that can lead to death spirals like the one at FTX.
balajis.com
America's $175 Trillion Problem
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
5 months ago
The true state of the global financial system, in ten charts.
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence, Gemini 2.0, Amazon Autos and more
Apple just redefined how we use Siri.
3 weeks ago
Apple just redefined how we use Siri.
Citation Needed
Polling: Are Democratic voters really “increasingly gravitating towards crypto”?
Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How...
4 months ago
Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How does it stack up to other industry polls, which are often heavily manipulated to paint a deceptively rosy picture?
The Rational Walk
A Mind at Play
Claude Shannon is most famous for his groundbreaking work related to information theory, one of many...
a year ago
Claude Shannon is most famous for his groundbreaking work related to information theory, one of many subjects discussed in his fascinating biography.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #185
Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at...
11 months ago
Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at Alibaba's IPO, Chris Davis, Outsider CEOs, Shareholder activists, Oprah
Mazdak
Protect Your iPhone: Apple Introduces Stolen Device Protection
Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device...
a year ago
Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device Protection, currently available to beta testers. This feature adds an extra layer of protection to your personal information and financial data, making it more difficult for thieves to...
Mazdak
Nearly All US Job Growth in November Came From Just 3 Sectors!
Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's...
a year ago
Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's even more interesting is that nearly all of this job growth came from just three sectors! So, which sectors are we talking about? Healthcare: Leading the pack with a steady demand...
Citation Needed
"The Monkey Fraud": An interview with Ryder Ripps
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club...
9 months ago
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club trademark infringement and racism.
Mazdak
Big Tech Donating to Trump's Inaugural Fund, Teens' Online Habits, More Tech Updates
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on...
3 weeks ago
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on Prime Video 😀
Citation Needed
Issue 69 – Nice
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also,...
2 months ago
Coinbase threatens me that continuing to report on their activities would be “.... unwise”. Also, election spending hits a fever pitch, with several new crypto PACs coming out of the woodwork.
The Rational Walk
Concentrated Investments
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the...
a year ago
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the company. What are the risks of concentrated investments in general and Berkshire in particular?
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 30th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.5% Week-over-week, Up 26.8% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week.
Inventory will...
a week ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week.
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in late January or February.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #187
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the...
11 months ago
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the market, Damodaran data updates, Apple packaging, Samsung, Big Pharma
The Diff
Economic Lessons from the Last Few Singularities
Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
2 weeks ago
Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
Citation Needed
Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely...
5 months ago
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely prohibited from making its $25 million contribution to the Fairshake crypto super PAC in May 2024.
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 1
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. I love playing and watching cricket. The dominance India showed in the recently concluded World Cup is astounding. I have never seen anything like it in...
Moneyness
How to debase the coinage in order to pay for wars
Henry VIII, after Hans Holbein the Younger
It's fun to imagine traveling back in time and engaging...
a year ago
Henry VIII, after Hans Holbein the Younger
It's fun to imagine traveling back in time and engaging with the then-prevailing technologies. Would you be able to ride a boneshaker or use a counting board? It's probably harder than you think: kids today can't even use a 1980s rotary...
Calculated Risk
Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with...
a week ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
The Diff
We Still Have No Idea Whether Passive Investing is a Meaningful Risk
Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC;...
a month ago
Plus! Complements and Strategy; Privacy, Competition, and Scale; Platforms and Ownership; KYC; Tariff Man
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
FOMC...
2 weeks ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
FOMC Statement:
lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the...
The Rational Walk
Thucydides
Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between...
4 months ago
Thucydides is best known for his extensive history of the Peloponnesian War which took place between 431 - 404 BC.
Calculated Risk
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
A brief excerpt:
We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage...
Commoncog
Operational Excellence is the Pursuit of ‘Knowledge’
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge....
a year ago
It turns out that operational excellence results from the pursuit of a certain form of knowledge. This is Part 3 of the Becoming Data Driven series, and the result of a deep dive into the field of statistical process control.
Mazdak
Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market?
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more...
8 months ago
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more pressing than ever. Soaring property values and rising interest rates have created a complex landscape, leaving many wondering: is homeownership still the golden ticket to building...
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried: guilty on all charges
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
a year ago
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
10 months ago
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
Musings on Markets
Just do it! Brand Name Lessons from Nike'sTroubles!
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon...
3 months ago
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon University track team built one of the great shoe companies in the world, in Nike. In addition to its entertainment value, and it is a fun book to read, I read it for two...
Calculated Risk
December 20th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Diff
Just Another Risk Asset
Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
3 weeks ago
Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
Moneyness
Thoughts on the Tornado Cash defence and what happens when everyone adopts it
Payments companies are regularly punished for engaging in money laundering. MoneyGram, for instance,...
8 months ago
Payments companies are regularly punished for engaging in money laundering. MoneyGram, for instance, has has to pay multiple fines. Western Union was famously busted in 2017. Meanwhile, Cash App is being probed as we speak for inadequate anti-money laundering controls.
In the...
Commoncog
Announcing the Commoncog Case Library Public Beta
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate...
over a year ago
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate business expertise. Find out more.
Musings on Markets
Tesla in November 2023 : Story twists and turns, with value consequences!
I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be...
a year ago
I was planning to start this post by telling you that Tesla was back in the news, but that would be misleading, since Tesla never leaves the news. Some of that attention comes from the company's products and innovations, but much of it comes from having Elon Musk as a CEO, a man...
Moneyness
Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new...
a month ago
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland's government announced a new and very strange policy.
All Finns were required to take out a pair of scissors and snip their banknotes in half. This was known in Finland as setelinleikkaus, or banknote cutting....
Moneyness
Another Indian payments idea: a lightweight portable payments system for catastrophes
India is so far ahead of most of the world when it comes to payments technology that when a new...
a year ago
India is so far ahead of most of the world when it comes to payments technology that when a new Indian payments idea emerges, we should probably pay attention.
In its recent annual report, the Reserve Bank of India, the country's central bank, put forward the idea of a...
Mazdak
A Review and Analysis of "The Laws of Human Nature" by Robert Greene
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different...
11 months ago
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different approach in his 2018 book, "The Laws of Human Nature." Instead of focusing on acquiring power over others, he dives deep into the intricate workings of human psychology, unveiling...
Mazdak
Twitter vs. Instagram Threads: The Battle for the Short-Form Social Media Crown
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both...
a year ago
Twitter and Instagram are two of the most popular social media platforms in the world. They both offer users a way to share short-form content, but they have different approaches to how that content is displayed and consumed. Twitter is a more public platform, where anyone can...
Citation Needed
Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x"
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
11 months ago
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
Mazdak
Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀
a year ago
The Diff
Where do AI Agents Get Deployed First?
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
a month ago
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
The Rational Walk
The Digest #172
Pilot's Founders vs. Berkshire, I Bonds, Ted Weschler interview transcript, Expanding circles of...
a year ago
Pilot's Founders vs. Berkshire, I Bonds, Ted Weschler interview transcript, Expanding circles of competence, Damodaran on Tesla, Thompson on AI, Charlie Munger, Chris Davis
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024
A brief excerpt:
Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing...
The Rational Walk
Will Progressive’s Growth Strategy Pay Off?
The auto insurer continues to add customers but posted disappointing results in the second quarter...
a year ago
The auto insurer continues to add customers but posted disappointing results in the second quarter due to catastrophe losses and inadequate pricing.
Commoncog
Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year
A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
a year ago
A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
Mazdak
Multifamily Real Estate Investment
Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential...
a year ago
Multifamily real estate investment is the purchase of apartment buildings or other residential properties with three or more units. It can be a good investment for a number of reasons, including: Potential for high cash flow. Multifamily properties can generate a steady stream of...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November
Brief excerpt:
The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. The previous three months were...
Mazdak
Google: Monopolized?
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little...
a month ago
Is Google too big? For years, the tech giant has dominated the search market, facing little competition.
Citation Needed
Video: The charges against Binance
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant...
11 months ago
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant Binance and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, I started writing up an overview of everything that had happened to the company over the past few years. I'd written separately about a...
Commoncog
Lee Walker and the Dell Growth Plateau
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination,...
a year ago
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination, and creative deal-making.
Moneyness
Are central banks too reliant on SWIFT for domestic payments?
Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally...
a year ago
Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally important to our lives, but we never see them in action. All of a nations' electronic payments are ultimately completed, or settled, on these systems. If they stop working, our...
The Rational Walk
The Oresteia
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery,...
7 months ago
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery, mankind finds its way toward due process and justice.
Mazdak
How Big Tech Could Lose Everything to Appease Trump
In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald...
2 months ago
In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald Trump, a man who has openly attacked these companies, return to power.
balajis.com
The Balaji Chat
A forum for balajis.com subscribers.
a year ago
A forum for balajis.com subscribers.
The Rational Walk
Biden’s Withdrawal and the Limits of Gaslighting
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the...
5 months ago
President Biden's withdrawal from the election is the culmination of months of gaslighting by the Democratic Party and allies in the mainstream media.
Mazdak
Who Should You Ask for Feedback?
Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new...
a year ago
Feedback is essential for business success. It can help you identify areas for improvement, get new ideas, and stay ahead of the competition. But not all feedback is created equal. If you want to get the most out of feedback, you need to ask the right people.
Farnam Street
A Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active...
over a year ago
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active participant, the experience can transform the way you think, and how you see the world. *** Here’s a situation familiar to many of us: We decide to take a vacation and go somewhere...
Citation Needed
Issue 46 – Checkmate, crypto
Cheating chess-players, cursed mansions, and more defi centralization.
a year ago
Cheating chess-players, cursed mansions, and more defi centralization.
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Mostly Unchanged in November
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:
Construction spending...
5 days ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:
Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November...
Commoncog
Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a...
a year ago
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a deliberate practice training program isn't as difficult as you might think.
Musings on Markets
A Return to Teaching: The Spring 2023 Edition
If, as you read this post, it feels like you have read it or a close variant before, it is because...
over a year ago
If, as you read this post, it feels like you have read it or a close variant before, it is because you have. Each year, ahead of teaching my classes at NYU's Stern School of Business in the spring, I invite readers to accompany me on my journey, and this year is no different....
Moneyness
Your finances are being snooped on. Here's how
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite...
5 months ago
We all have a pretty good idea that our finances are being snooped on, but most of us aren't quite able to articulate how. We know that we're being snooped on by two groups, corporations and the government. This post will focus on how the government snoops on our transactions,...
Mazdak
Today's Top Tech News - Amazon's Discount Store
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
a month ago
Amazon is taking on Temu and Shein with its new discount store, where everything is under $20!
Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
a year ago
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
Moneyness
Who should pay for scams? Victims or their banks?
Scam call centre on CCTV, via BBC.
Here's a question for you. Should banks be required to...
a year ago
Scam call centre on CCTV, via BBC.
Here's a question for you. Should banks be required to reimburse customers who have been scammed?
I was recently reading a CBC article about a 63-year old Toronto man who responded to a phone call from a scammer claiming to be a Bank of...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
A brief excerpt:
Total housing starts in November were below expectations, however, starts in September and October were revised up slightly, combined.
Total...
The Diff
Credentialism and the Money Illusion
Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and...
10 hours ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Capacity Constraints; IPO Window; Strikes and Opportunity Costs; The Upside and Downside of Ads; Backcasting Returns
The Rational Walk
The Digest #162
Volcker on inflation, Parametric insurance, The futility of guidance, Corporate governance reform,...
a year ago
Volcker on inflation, Parametric insurance, The futility of guidance, Corporate governance reform, Keeping a notebook, Singleton and Teledyne, The pros and cons of cancer screening
Mazdak
Anthropic's AI Breakthrough & Boeing's Q3 Disaster
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases...
2 months ago
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases mind-blowing new capabilities.
Moneyness
Thoughts on Privacy Pools and the law
Here's my quick first-pass take on Privacy Pools, the heir apparent to privacy tool Tornado Cash. My...
a year ago
Here's my quick first-pass take on Privacy Pools, the heir apparent to privacy tool Tornado Cash. My comments are on the legal side, and less so the technical side, although the two aren't mutually exclusive.
I've already written a bunch of times about Tornado Cash on this blog....
Moneyness
Pricing the anonymity of banknotes
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a
standard set of payments...
a month ago
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a
standard set of payments services, they also offer financial anonymity.
This post introduces the idea of trying to price the anonymity
component.
To help think about why we might want to price anonymous...
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
The Rational Walk
Superinvestor Portfolio Changes — Q3 2023
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General,...
a year ago
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General, Markel, and Semper Augustus.
Mazdak
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
a month ago
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
Citation Needed
Issue 70 – The Cryptocurrency States of America
Crypto’s efforts to buy the 2024 elections paid off, and we’re in for a bumpy ride.
a month ago
Crypto’s efforts to buy the 2024 elections paid off, and we’re in for a bumpy ride.
Musings on Markets
Breaking up Big Tech: Cui Bono?
In a court filing on October 9, 2024, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) let it be known that it was...
2 months ago
In a court filing on October 9, 2024, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) let it be known that it was considering a break-up of Alphabet, with the addendum that it would also be pushing for the company to share the data it collects across its multiple platforms with competitors....
Mazdak
Apple Intelligence is FINALLY HERE! 🤯 What You NEED to Know! 🧠
Join us as we explore Apple's groundbreaking AI platform:
2 months ago
Join us as we explore Apple's groundbreaking AI platform:
Mazdak
CPP vs OAS: Understanding Canada's Core Retirement Benefits 🇨🇦
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension...
a month ago
Canada's retirement income system consists of two major public pension programs: the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS).
Seeking Wisdom
What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a...
7 months ago
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a plate full of french fries. It takes an enormous amount of energy to break bad habits. I’ve broken bad habits under two conditions: (a) it’s a do-or-die situation, or (b) you have a...
Commoncog
Eric Nehrlich on the Art of Executive Coaching and Forecasting
Cedric talks to Eric Nehrlich about driving down the error rate for Google's revenue forecasting...
a year ago
Cedric talks to Eric Nehrlich about driving down the error rate for Google's revenue forecasting from 10-20% down to 0.5%, his approach to executive coaching, and how to come up with small experiments for personal growth.
balajis.com
The Mirrortable
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and...
over a year ago
Mirrortables are to cap tables what stablecoins are to fiat currencies. They streamline and internationalize the logistical mess of angel investing.
Musings on Markets
The Difference Makers: Key Person(s) Valuation
Can one person make a difference to the value of a business? Of course, and with small businesses,...
a year ago
Can one person make a difference to the value of a business? Of course, and with small businesses, especially those built around personal services (a doctor or plumber’s practice), it is part of the valuation process, where the key person is valued or at least priced and...
Calculated Risk
New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
2 weeks ago
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand.
Sales of new single-family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according
to estimates released jointly today by the...
Citation Needed
The stones left unturned in the Sam Bankman-Fried trial
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many...
a year ago
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many questions remain about what happened at Bankman-Fried's crypto empire.
Seeking Wisdom
How a Machine Learns – Part 2
I’m truly impressed by how accurately LLMs grasp natural language and consistently provide spot-on...
a year ago
I’m truly impressed by how accurately LLMs grasp natural language and consistently provide spot-on answers. Through these posts, I’ll build a toy GPT from scratch using Python and unpack everything that goes inside the LLMs, including the math it uses. This is my third post on my...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
8 months ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
Bits about Money
Working title (insurance)
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
6 months ago
Title insurance is grossly overpriced relative to actual risks involved. Why is that?
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in November
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
2 weeks ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
Mazdak
The Psychology of Investing: 5 Critical Traps That Can Destroy Your Wealth
The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising...
a month ago
The path to investment success is riddled with psychological pitfalls that can turn promising portfolios into cautionary tales.
Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
a year ago
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
a year ago
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #168
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's...
a year ago
Charles F. Feeney's philanthropy, Howard Marks makes the case for credit, Spin-offs, Birkenstock's IPO, Costco's clothing, Todd Combs interview, Equifax, and more ...
Musings on Markets
A Business Upended: Streaming disrupts the Entertainment Business!
It has been an unsettling summer for anyone with a stake in the movie, television and broadcasting...
a year ago
It has been an unsettling summer for anyone with a stake in the movie, television and broadcasting businesses. The strike by screen actors and writers which started in July is now into almost into its third month, with no end in sight, putting at risk the pipeline of movies and...
Mazdak
OpenAI's Meltdown: A Fight for the Future of AI
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching...
a year ago
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching implications for the future of artificial intelligence (AI). OpenAI, known for its groundbreaking ChatGPT technology, is considered a frontrunner in the AI race, and its fate could...
Musings on Markets
Market Bipolarity: Exuberance versus Exhaustion!
As we enter the last quarter of 2023, it has been a roller coaster of a year. We started the year...
a year ago
As we enter the last quarter of 2023, it has been a roller coaster of a year. We started the year with significant uncertainty about whether the surge in inflation seen in 2022 would persist as well as about whether the economy was headed into a recession. In the first half of...
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
a year ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
Mazdak
How to Build Wealth: 5 Key Principles
Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is...
a year ago
Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is possible for anyone who is willing to put in the work. Here are 5 key principles to help you build wealth: Live below your means. This is the single most important thing you can do to...
Commoncog
Process Behaviour Charts: More Than You Need To Know
The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional...
a year ago
The process behaviour chart is the easiest way to differentiate between routine and exceptional variation. This is everything you need to know to use it well.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #193
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect...
9 months ago
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect on the brain, Race and cardiovascular disease, Inflation's effect on insurance pricing
Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
a year ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
Seeking Wisdom
From Linear to Logistic – Sigmoid Curve and Log Loss
Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my...
a year ago
Can we predict the likelihood of heart disease from sleep and exercise? This is my fourth post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Let’s train a model to predict heart disease using sleep and exercise data....
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024
Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025.
----- Monday, December 30th -----
9:45 AM:...
a week ago
Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025.
----- Monday, December 30th -----
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December.
Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index.
Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity...
Calculated Risk
Personal Income increased 0.3% in November; Spending increased 0.4%
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:
Personal income increased...
2 weeks ago
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:
Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal...
Citation Needed
We need to talk about digital ownership
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually...
11 months ago
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually want.
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.4% YoY
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
2 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to...
Mazdak
What is QSBS?
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul...
a year ago
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul into your company, and you want to see it thrive. But taxes can eat into your profits, leaving you feeling frustrated and discouraged. That's where QSBS (Qualified Small Business...
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal Annual Meeting Notes
A reader has generously shared his notes from the Daily Journal annual meeting which took place in...
6 months ago
A reader has generously shared his notes from the Daily Journal annual meeting which took place in Los Angeles on February 15, 2024.
Citation Needed
Issue 64 – Pointing its arsenal at our friends
As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like...
4 months ago
As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like “Crypto4Harris”, others insist it is Harris who must “bend the knee”.
Mazdak
How to Find Great Stocks That Will Make You Money
The stock market can be a great way to grow your wealth over time. However, it's important to know...
a year ago
The stock market can be a great way to grow your wealth over time. However, it's important to know how to find great stocks that will make you money. In this blog post, I will share five key factors to look for when finding great stocks. Factor 1: Strong Revenue Growth
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 2
Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto...
a year ago
Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto insurance business as well as nearly bankrupting GEICO.
Mazdak
Buffett's $325 Billion Warning
Is the legendary investor Warren Buffett sounding the alarm on the market? Berkshire Hathaway,...
a month ago
Is the legendary investor Warren Buffett sounding the alarm on the market? Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett's company, is sitting on a record $325 billion in cash after selling off major chunks of Apple and Bank of America stock.
Citation Needed
We can have a different web
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
8 months ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
a year ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
Bits about Money
Improving how credit cards work under the covers
Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can...
a year ago
Card networks are legacy systems. Some bugs have persisted for decades, surprisingly, but they can be fixed. Stripe provides examples.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #155
Early Retirement, Chris Davis on Berkshire's future, Howard Marks on market cycles, Threads vs....
a year ago
Early Retirement, Chris Davis on Berkshire's future, Howard Marks on market cycles, Threads vs. Twitter, Costco takes the high road, James Cameron, GEICO in the 1970s
The Rational Walk
Coffee Can Investing
Sometimes an investing approach that is not necessarily "rational" from an economic perspective can...
a year ago
Sometimes an investing approach that is not necessarily "rational" from an economic perspective can produce superior results when one accounts for human nature.
Mazdak
Unlocking Tax Savings and Building Wealth for Your Children: A Smart Strategy for Business Owners
As a business owner, you're constantly seeking ways to optimize your operations, reduce costs, and...
a year ago
As a business owner, you're constantly seeking ways to optimize your operations, reduce costs, and maximize profits. But have you considered a strategy that not only benefits your business but also sets your children up for financial success? The concept of hiring your children...
Moneyness
A glass half-full take on Caucasus sanctions evasion
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being...
3 months ago
Ed Conway of Sky News recently published a very good investigation on sanctions evasion being carried out through the Caucasus. He visits the Lars border crossing between Georgia and Russia to document how smugglers are openly moving British and German luxury cars into Russia, in...
Citation Needed
Issue 59 – Hot damn, this is going to get interesting quickly
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through...
7 months ago
Are US legislators warming to crypto? The SEC approves Ethereum ETPs, and a crypto bill gets through the House.
Commoncog
Running a Fine Dining Restaurant in a Recession
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about...
5 months ago
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about operating through the capital cycle.
Musings on Markets
Earnings and Cash Flows: A Primer on Free Cash Flow
It is never pleasant to be in the midst of a market correction, but a market correction does operate...
over a year ago
It is never pleasant to be in the midst of a market correction, but a market correction does operate as a cleanser for excesses that enter into even the most disciplined investors' playbooks in the good times. This correction has been no exception, as the threat of losing...
Mazdak
2024 Tax Changes in Canada: A Detailed Guide for Canadians 💰🇨🇦
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year,...
a year ago
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year, adjustments and updates across various areas present both opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. Let's explore the key changes and consider their potential ramifications.
balajis.com
The Fiat Crisis
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
a year ago
This is not a financial crisis. It’s a fiat crisis.
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 211,000
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of
9,000 from the...
5 days ago
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of
9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to
220,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous...
Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
7 months ago
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
Musings on Markets
Toys for Billionaires: Sports Franchises as Trophy Assets!
I have always loved sports, playing tennis and cricket when I was growing up, before transitioning...
a year ago
I have always loved sports, playing tennis and cricket when I was growing up, before transitioning to fan status, cheering for my favored teams from the sidelines. I also like finance, perhaps not as much as sports, but there are winners and losers in the investment game as well....
Mazdak
How to Start a Cleaning Company Without Cleaning
The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion...
a year ago
The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion by 2026. This growth is being driven by a number of factors, including the increasing number of dual-income households, the growing popularity of Airbnb, and the rising demand for...
The Rational Walk
Negative Lollapalooza Effects
Sharing ideas can have benefits but there are also psychological risks. This article applies lessons...
a year ago
Sharing ideas can have benefits but there are also psychological risks. This article applies lessons from Charlie Munger's psychology of human misjudgment to investing.
balajis.com
#1 - Vitalik Buterin on Starting New Countries, Upgrading Ethereum, and Improving Yourself
Listen now (118 min) | A discussion between Vitalik Buterin and Balaji Srinivasan on starting new...
a year ago
Listen now (118 min) | A discussion between Vitalik Buterin and Balaji Srinivasan on starting new countries, improving yourself, and upgrading Ethereum. OUTLINE 00:00 - Introduction 01:27 - A brief history of Ethereum 16:54 - The DAO hack 20:32 - The Devcon 2 attack 33:24 - The...
Seeking Wisdom
How a Machine Learns
How a fly helped Descartes to invent the Cartesian plane René Descartes (1596 – 1650), the famous...
a year ago
How a fly helped Descartes to invent the Cartesian plane René Descartes (1596 – 1650), the famous philosopher and mathematician, was lying in his bed, eyes fixed on a fly on the ceiling. As he pondered how to accurately describe the fly’s position, Descartes visualized the...
Calculated Risk
Question #5 for 2025: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
a week ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Commoncog
Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do...
11 months ago
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do it. This is everything you need to know to actually become data driven, from scratch, using the same first principles that Amazon, Koch, and Toyota used back in their day.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #160
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan,...
a year ago
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan, Flawed memories, Podcast interviews with Rudy Havenstein, Doomberg, Paul Graham, and Guy Spier.
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of
22,000 from the...
2 weeks ago
The DOL reported:
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of
22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,500, an increase of
1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 224,250.
emphasis added
The...
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
2 months ago
How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
Mazdak
A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the...
a year ago
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the economy that remains ill: the office sector of the U.S. commercial real-estate market. ** What's the Problem?** Hybrid/remote work: What began as a two-week work-from-home...
Moneyness
The lower limit to silver's usefulness in coinage
A detectorist in Suffolk, England recently found a beautiful halfpenny minted some time between...
a year ago
A detectorist in Suffolk, England recently found a beautiful halfpenny minted some time between 1625-1649, during the reign of King Charles I. This coin, captured in the video below, illustrates an important feature of coinage: the lower limit to silver's usefulness as a monetary...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy
Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
a year ago
Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
The Rational Walk
The Year in Review
Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
a year ago
Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US)
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
12 months ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2024: Profitability - The End Game for Business?
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free...
11 months ago
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the...
Commoncog
What’s an Operational Definition Anyway?
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most...
a year ago
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most principles in SPC, this is both simpler and more important than you might think.
Moneyness
When is a stablecoin a security? The strange case of Binance and BUSD
The SEC has been hinting for several years that stablecoins may be securities. I've always found the...
a year ago
The SEC has been hinting for several years that stablecoins may be securities. I've always found the idea of regulating stablecoins as securities to be a bit odd. No one who buys a stablecoin expects to make a profit. That's because none of the big stablecoins (Tether, BUSD, or...
Citation Needed
Issue 68 – Opportunity agenda
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as...
2 months ago
Harris shouts out crypto in her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men”, one crypto exec leaves prison as another enters, and Stand With Crypto bets on the favorites.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 2023 Results
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices,...
a year ago
Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter results with a focus on GEICO, BNSF, HomeServices, Clayton Homes, Apple, and share repurchases.
Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI)
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
10 months ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
9 months ago
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
The Rational Walk
Improving Disclosure for Public Companies
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing...
9 months ago
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing three simple proposals.
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023!
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
11 months ago
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
Commoncog
An Increase in Membership Prices
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old...
a year ago
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
Mazdak
Meta's AI & Reuters: A New Era of News?
Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading...
2 months ago
Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading global news provider, to bring real-time news updates directly to users through Meta's AI chatbot.
The Rational Walk
Three Lessons
A few life lessons based on observations over a half century.
a year ago
A few life lessons based on observations over a half century.
The Rational Walk
Hesiod’s Works and Days
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it...
7 months ago
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it was 2,700 years ago.
FIRE v London
Mayday for IBKR margin lending
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No...
a year ago
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No longer. If you’ve read my other posts (like this or this or this) on margin lending, and are interested in exploring further, make you read this post before you do. Why I used to like...
Mazdak
The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real...
10 months ago
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real estate in Canada. It's important to note that this strategy is generally more complex and may not be suitable for everyone. When Owning Real Estate Personally Might Be Better
Mazdak
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Advertising Monopoly.
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. iPhone 15 Pro Max: Everything We Know So Far About...
a year ago
Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. iPhone 15 Pro Max: Everything We Know So Far About Apple's Next Flagship. Reddit Protests Continue as Company Threatens to Remove Moderators. Gannett Sues Google for Digital Ad Monopoly. Gannett, the largest U.S. newspaper chain, has...
The Rational Walk
The Thirty Second Mind
Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
12 months ago
Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
Mazdak
The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
a year ago
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
The Diff
The One-Big-Side-Bet Model of Wealth Creation
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on...
a month ago
Plus! Diff Jobs; Building Japan's Financial Ecosystem; The New Balance of Trade; Where Return on Investment Goes; Broken ETFs; Swipe Fees and Accounting
Moneyness
How my views on financial privacy have evolved over a decade
I began exploring the topic of financial privacy and payment anonymity in the early days of this...
a month ago
I began exploring the topic of financial privacy and payment anonymity in the early days of this blog. Over the past decade, my views have shifted significantly—here's how and why.
Rereading my earliest mentions of financial privacy, they now seem a bit... idealistic? extreme?...
Citation Needed
Issue 65 – World Liberty Fiasco
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
4 months ago
Even the most pro-Trump crypto faithful think Trump’s new crypto scheme is a terrible idea.
Mazdak
TFSA Talk: Unlocking Tax-Free Wealth 🇨🇦
Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
2 months ago
Tired of paying taxes on your investments?
The Rational Walk
Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on...
7 months ago
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on education, ethics, religion, and many other subjects.
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: around 2.4%
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter...
4 days ago
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3%. [Jan 2nd estimate]
emphasis added
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #217
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The...
3 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests, Measuring Competence, Greg Abel Interview, The Fed's Inflationary Bias, Jimmy Carter at 100, Sam Altman, Bruno Leoni, Thermopylae
The Rational Walk
Pilot’s Founders vs. Berkshire Hathaway
Warren Buffett's reputation as a straight shooter is called into question by the Haslam family in a...
a year ago
Warren Buffett's reputation as a straight shooter is called into question by the Haslam family in a dispute over the valuation of their remaining 20% interest.
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
11 months ago
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #200
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks,...
7 months ago
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks, Appnesia, Stress and heart disease, Steve Jobs, Flying Cars, Dunkirk, Napoleon
The Rational Walk
The Iliad
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
9 months ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #166
The media landscape, Dollar General's meltdown, The written word, Damodaran on Instacart, The human...
a year ago
The media landscape, Dollar General's meltdown, The written word, Damodaran on Instacart, The human condition, Herb Kelleher, Merger arbitrage, and more.
Citation Needed
Issue 63 – RobConf 2024
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat...
5 months ago
Coinbase responds to campaign finance violation allegations, Trump panders to bitcoiners, and I chat with Lyn Alden about sexism in bitcoin.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #195
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
9 months ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
Mazdak
Unplugging Australia: Kids vs. Social Media
Australia is going offline!
a month ago
Australia is going offline!
The Rational Walk
The Digest #204
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing...
6 months ago
Buffett buys more Occidental, Daily Journal annual meeting notes, Experts vs. Imitators, Slowing down time, Return of meme stocks, The U.S. Constitution, Gouverneur Morris, Cleopatra
The Rational Walk
The Digest #196
Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on...
9 months ago
Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on Disney's proxy war, Lessons from Paul Graham, Dunbar's number
Mazdak
More Creators Can Now Make Money on YouTube
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out...
a year ago
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out Vision for the Platform. YouTube Makes It Easier for Small Creators to Earn Money YouTube is lowering the eligibility requirements for creators to make money from their channels....
Commoncog
An Expertise Acceleration Experiment in Judo
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two...
a year ago
I relocated for a three month expertise acceleration experiment in Judo. These are my notes from two months in: what I learnt, what was hard, and what deliberate practice actually feels like.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
3 days ago
Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
The Rational Walk
The Digest #176
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land,...
a year ago
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land, John Oliver skewers dollar stores, Apple regrets, The Great Books Journal
balajis.com
The Network State Book
A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder...
over a year ago
A book by Balaji S. Srinivasan (@balajis) on how to start a new country. Now available for preorder on Amazon.
Moneyness
The strange new world of multifunctional assets
I would never own it, but the cryptocurrency BNB is probably one of the strangest most interesting...
a year ago
I would never own it, but the cryptocurrency BNB is probably one of the strangest most interesting assets I've ever analyzed. No other asset (perhaps ever?) provides its owner with so much functionality.
Is the sort of multi-functionality offered by assets like BNB a feature...
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
5 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year
A brief excerpt:
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.56% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
Mazdak
How to Use Pain to Fuel Your Personal Evolution
Pain is inevitable, especially if you're chasing ambitious goals. But what if I told you that pain...
a year ago
Pain is inevitable, especially if you're chasing ambitious goals. But what if I told you that pain can be a powerful tool for personal evolution? When you're feeling pain, it's a sign that you need to find a solution. This is an opportunity to learn and grow. If you can develop a...
Mazdak
The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured...
a year ago
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured the attention of the world. ChatGPT's ability to generate human-quality text, translate languages, write different kinds of creative content, and answer questions in an informative...
Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
6 months ago
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
Moneyness
"I didn't launder the cash, your honor. The robot did."
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases...
7 months ago
Crypto enthusiasts protest the trial of Alexey Pertsev
As the multiple Tornado Cash legal cases wend their way through courts in the Netherlands and the U.S., we continue to learn how society's money laundering laws will be applied to some of the more unique financial entities...
Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income?
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
11 months ago
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
Mazdak
Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and...
12 months ago
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and battling for the last box of Oreos. The retail giant is about to revolutionize your shopping experience with a generative AI makeover. Imagine this: You're planning a Super Bowl bash,...
balajis.com
The Balaji Newsletter
A single place for all updates at balajis.com
a year ago
A single place for all updates at balajis.com
Seeking Wisdom
Buffett’s Bathtub Memory
I love reading physical books. But there’s one problem with physical books. My shelf space is...
a year ago
I love reading physical books. But there’s one problem with physical books. My shelf space is limited. To overcome the shelf space limitation, I developed a simple fitness function for my books. Books that I won’t reread will be donated to the library. Don’t get me wrong. They...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #199
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's...
7 months ago
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, A long run perspective, the parent-therapy trap
Mazdak
Subscription Overload: The Rise of Recurring Revenue
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches...
a year ago
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches onto the subscription business model. This is because businesses can make more money up-front and over time by selling subscriptions and building loyalty. They can also mine...
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
a year ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
Calculated Risk
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up...
2 weeks ago
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough). I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #157
Munger on windowless dorms, Damodaran on country risk, Disney's brand, Working without working, The...
a year ago
Munger on windowless dorms, Damodaran on country risk, Disney's brand, Working without working, The comfort crisis, Fairfax, Markel, Vision Pro's breakthrough, iPhone hacks
Commoncog
Process Improvement is Trickier Than You Think
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because...
over a year ago
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because they're bad or lazy — but because there are system dynamics that prevent them from doing so. We take a look at what those are.
Commoncog
The Shape of a Technological Window
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how...
over a year ago
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how he used it over the course of his career. Note: this is a follow-up to and an update for the Commoncog Case Library Beta.
Moneyness
The long arm of OFAC and its reach into the Ethereum network
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving...
a year ago
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving Tornado Cash, a piece of blockchain infrastructure that was sanctioned by the U.S. government last year for providing mixing services to North Korea.
Over the last two weeks...
Moneyness
Renovatio monetae
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of...
8 months ago
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of renovatio monetae. Twice a year whoever held it had to bring it in to be changed for new coins at a rate of four old coins to three new coins. That suggests an annualized tax rate on...
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.7% in November
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and...
2 weeks ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8 percent from November 2023.
report:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
10 months ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
7 months ago
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
FIRE v London
June ’23: The hottest ever
June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or...
a year ago
June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or (definitely) read the last of him but having him out of Westminster is at least a bit safer than him inside. Closer to (my Coastal Folly) home, there has been a sad story in...
Mazdak
Tech Today - Apple Smart Home Camera
Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
a month ago
Subscribe to our newsletter at Mazdak.com
The Rational Walk
The Digest #209
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
5 months ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
a year ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2024: The data speaks, but what does it say?
In January 1993, I was valuing a retail company, and I found myself wondering what a reasonable...
a year ago
In January 1993, I was valuing a retail company, and I found myself wondering what a reasonable margin was for a firm operating in the retail business. In pursuit of an answer to that question, I used company-specific data from Value Line, one of the earliest entrants into the...
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 1
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts...
a year ago
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Take the statement, ‘I will only go for a walk if it’s nice outside AND I have free time.’ This can be neatly represented using a truth table. We can…
balajis.com
Too Fake to Tell
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
a year ago
US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
Calculated Risk
Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 days ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Commoncog
Power and Asian Business
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
3 weeks ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: A July 2023 Update!
I have looked at country risk, in all its dimensions, towards the middle of each year, for the last...
a year ago
I have looked at country risk, in all its dimensions, towards the middle of each year, for the last decade, for many reasons. One is curiosity, as political and economic crises roll through regions of the world, roiling long-held beliefs about safe and risky countries. The other...
Bits about Money
Money laundering and AML compliance
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
a year ago
A brief overview of what money laundering is, what financial institutions do about it, and why.
Musings on Markets
Good Intentions, Perverse Outcomes: The Impact of Impact Investing!
I have made no secret of my disdain for ESG, an over-hyped and over-sold acronym, that has been a...
a year ago
I have made no secret of my disdain for ESG, an over-hyped and over-sold acronym, that has been a gravy train for a whole host of players, including fund managers, consultants and academics. In response, I have been told that the problem is not with the idea of ESG, but in its...
Mazdak
AI Energy Fears: Overblown or the Next Crisis?
Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
a month ago
Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
Commoncog
Executing on Becoming Data Driven
Every analytics project consists of two parts. The technical part, and then the 'get the...
a year ago
Every analytics project consists of two parts. The technical part, and then the 'get the organisation on board' part. We talk about why the latter is the real challenge.
Moneyness
Who are the money launderers in the Tornado Cash stack?
Over the last few years I've written a bunch of posts about Tornado Cash, an Ethereum-based mixing...
a year ago
Over the last few years I've written a bunch of posts about Tornado Cash, an Ethereum-based mixing service, because I find it to be a fascinating tool. With the recent indictment of two people involved in the Tornado Cash "stack" for money laundering, here's another post to add...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 7 for 2023: Dividends, Buybacks and Cash Flows
This is the last of my data update posts for 2023, and in this one, I will focus on dividends and...
a year ago
This is the last of my data update posts for 2023, and in this one, I will focus on dividends and buybacks, perhaps the most most misunderstood and misplayed element of corporate finance. To illustrate the heat that buybacks evoke, consider two stories in the last two weeks where...
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025
Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in...
yesterday
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025
Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs?
Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?
Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500...
The Diff
How High Does AI's Revenue Per User Get?
Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't...
3 weeks ago
Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't Scale Yet; Complete Markets; Legitimacy and Growth
Musings on Markets
AI's Winners, Losers and Wannabes: An NVIDIA Valuation, with the AI Boost!
I will start this post with a couple of confessions. The first is that my portfolio has held up well...
a year ago
I will start this post with a couple of confessions. The first is that my portfolio has held up well this year, in a market that has been top-heavy and tech-driven, and one big reason is that it contains both NVIDIA and Microsoft, two companies that have benefited from the AI...
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
a year ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2023: Country Risk - Measures and Implications
I describe myself as a dabbler, and it does get in the way of my best laid plans. A few weeks ago, I...
a year ago
I describe myself as a dabbler, and it does get in the way of my best laid plans. A few weeks ago, I posted my first data update pulling together what I had learned from looking at the data in 2023, and promised many more on the topic. In the month since, I have added two more...
Commoncog
Business Reality Without Frameworks
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s...
2 months ago
A paradox: why it’s important to think about business without abstractions, even as we from what’s come before.
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024
Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
3 weeks ago
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024
Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 5.8, down from 31.2.
Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).
WTI futures at $71.12 per...
FIRE v London
June ’24: Election fever
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west...
6 months ago
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west country, the south coast and the Isle of Wight; partly overseas – I visited Ibiza for a few days of R&R. Meanwhile, the election campaigns were in full swing. Nigel Farage did his...
FIRE v London
Aug ’23: …
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One...
a year ago
A belated write-up of the month of August. Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me. One was the death of Russian mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin – a larger-than-life modern day warlord, responsible for the ‘little green men’ at the start of the Russian/Ukraine war in 2014,...
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on Learning
I was learning how to program during the mid to late 90s. Finding learning material in a world...
a year ago
I was learning how to program during the mid to late 90s. Finding learning material in a world without the Internet, Google, and YouTube was incredibly challenging. I struggled to understand how pointers in C worked. Yashavant Kanetkar’s Understanding Pointers in C book helped me...
Calculated Risk
Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
a week ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Commoncog
The Disaffected PhD Skunkworks: A Story About Process Improvement
A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service...
over a year ago
A concrete story of positive process improvement, deep from the trenches of early customer service at Amazon.
Musings on Markets
The Corporate Life Cycle: Corporate Finance, Valuation and Investing Implications!
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children...
4 months ago
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children are quick to point out my age, and I accept that reality, for the most part. I understand that I am too old to exercise without stretching first or eat a heaping plate of cheese...
Mazdak
Big Tech Ad Boom
Tech giants are raking in cash as the digital ad market explodes!
2 months ago
Tech giants are raking in cash as the digital ad market explodes!
Calculated Risk
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to All!
High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!)
beach in Newport.
Best Wishes to All!
a week ago
High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!)
beach in Newport.
Best Wishes to All!
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices
The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire...
9 months ago
The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices was not a party to the agreement but its business model will still be affected.
The Rational Walk
A Dangerous Interregnum
President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russian territory...
a month ago
President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russian territory risks plunging the world into crisis in the finals months of his administration.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Interest Rates Since the Federal Reserve Began Cutting Rates
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Click on graph for larger image.
10-Year T1PS Yield
a week ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Click on graph for larger image.
10-Year T1PS Yield
The Rational Walk
The Digest #190
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben...
10 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben Graham's summer on a farm, Income taxes, Interviews of Bruce Berkowitz and Howard Marks, and more...
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Equilibrium
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
8 months ago
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier post first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium, oscillation,...
Mazdak
Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket?
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the...
11 months ago
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the dream of homeownership into a distant mirage for many Canadians. But before you resign yourself to renting forever, consider this: owning a home may not be the guaranteed...
Commoncog
Stan Slap on the Art of Building Effective Employee Cultures
Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent...
a month ago
Cedric talks to Stan Slap, international consultant to the Fortune 500, on a powerful, coherent model for shaping employee culture.
FIRE v London
Mar ’23: Harvesting tax losses
March has been rather a wet month in London. Wet, and cold. This translates into the ski slopes in...
a year ago
March has been rather a wet month in London. Wet, and cold. This translates into the ski slopes in the French Alps (finally) having great conditions – sadly too late for me to enjoy. Further north, it’s been a month of big change in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon, the...
balajis.com
The Network State Book
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
Citation Needed
I am my own legal department: the promise and peril of “just go independent”
Independent publishing is one important facet of the media ecosystem, and while I love it, I know it...
2 months ago
Independent publishing is one important facet of the media ecosystem, and while I love it, I know it is not the path for everyone.
Mazdak
How Long (and Why) You Must Keep Every Business Record 🇨🇦
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable...
11 months ago
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable records. This isn't just about staying organized; it's about complying with the law, managing your finances, and protecting yourself from audits. But with so many rules and regulations,...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual...
2 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in...
The Diff
What Would a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Actually Do?
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State:...
a month ago
Plus! Regulation; AI and Social Networks; Continuous Search; Deflation; Big Tech Sees Like a State: Beauty Filters Edition
FIRE v London
From ISA $millionaire to £millionaire
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put...
4 months ago
The best tax break in the UK is the ISA tax-free savings regime. Each UK tax-resident adult can put £20k per year into an ISA account – use it for a wide range of investing activities – and not even have to report on what happens in those accounts, let alone pay tax on them.…...
The Rational Walk
The Magic of Compounding
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my...
6 months ago
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my current net worth.
Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales tomorrow, Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96...
Mazdak
Inside xAI: Musk vs. OpenAI
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his...
a month ago
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his former company, OpenAI, to do it.
Moneyness
Elon Musk's understanding of payments dates back to his PayPal days. It needs an update
[This is a republication of my most recent CoinDesk opinion piece.]
You've
heard the script...
a year ago
[This is a republication of my most recent CoinDesk opinion piece.]
You've
heard the script before. Migrants need to make payments back home to
their family, but cross-border payments are achingly slow, taking days
to process. Luckily, revolutionary new technologies like...
Mazdak
Trump's Antitrust Agenda: Big Tech in the Balance
Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
2 months ago
Will Big Tech face a reckoning or a reprieve?
Moneyness
Why do sanctioned entities use Tether?
Tether, a stablecoin, has been in the news for offering sanctioned actors such as Hamas a means to...
a year ago
Tether, a stablecoin, has been in the news for offering sanctioned actors such as Hamas a means to participate in the global payments ecosystem.
In this post I want to explore in more depth how Tether is being used to dodge sanctions. I'm going to avoid drawing on the Hamas...
Calculated Risk
December 13th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2024: Danger and Opportunity - Bringing Risk into the Equation!
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023,...
11 months ago
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound. In this post, I look at risk, a central theme in finance and...
The Diff
That Top-of-Cycle Feeling
Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
3 weeks ago
Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
Mazdak
Google's Ad Business Under Fire in Europe
Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces...
a year ago
Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe The European Commission has made a formal antitrust complaint against Google and its ad business. In a preliminary opinion, the regulator says Google has...
Moneyness
How did Zcash avoid getting OFAC'ed?
The 2022 sanctioning of privacy tool Tornado Cash by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (or OFAC,...
a year ago
The 2022 sanctioning of privacy tool Tornado Cash by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (or OFAC, the U.S.'s sanctioning authority) has inspired a new privacy idea: Privacy Pools.
An olive branch to OFAC, Privacy Pools will let users choose who they associate with, the idea...
Farnam Street
Let Go of the Learning Baggage
We all want to learn better. That means retaining information, processing it, being able to use it...
over a year ago
We all want to learn better. That means retaining information, processing it, being able to use it when needed. More knowledge means better instincts; better insights into opportunities for both you and your organization. You will ultimately produce better work if you give...
Musings on Markets
Disagreements and First Principles: The Pushback on my Tesla Valuation
I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago, and as has always been the...
a year ago
I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago, and as has always been the case when I value this company, I have heard from both sides of the Tesla divide. Some of you believe that I am being far too generous in my forecasts of revenues and profitability...
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
a year ago
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
Moneyness
UK's core payments settlement system fails... again. Some thoughts
As they increasingly forsake cash, regular folks are making dozens of digital payments every month....
a year ago
As they increasingly forsake cash, regular folks are making dozens of digital payments every month. What they don't realize is how this growing reliance on digital payments increasingly yokes their commercial lives to the fate of a single piece of infrastructure: their central...
Mazdak
Canadian Real Estate Market Predictions for 2024
As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for...
a year ago
As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for investors. While the explosive growth of recent years is likely to abate, a multitude of factors will continue to shape the market's trajectory. Understanding these factors is crucial for...
Mazdak
The Growth Rocket Fuel of Low Gross Margin Businesses
When most people think of successful businesses, they think of businesses with high gross margins....
a year ago
When most people think of successful businesses, they think of businesses with high gross margins. After all, a high gross margin means that a business is making a lot of money on each sale. However, there are a number of successful businesses that have low gross margins. These...
Moneyness
Why my favorite coinage is Byzantine coinage
What do I like about Byzantine coinage?
Most people probably admire the Byzantine solidus, a gold...
10 months ago
What do I like about Byzantine coinage?
Most people probably admire the Byzantine solidus, a gold coin that maintained its weight and purity for over 600 years, which is quite remarkable for a coin. The solidus was exported all over the world, including to Europe, which lacked...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
----- Monday, December 23rd -----
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National...
2 weeks ago
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
----- Monday, December 23rd -----
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data.
----- Tuesday, December 24th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November. The consensus is for a 0.4%...
Citation Needed
Issue 72 – A seat at the table
The SEC is still busy even though it may soon be undermined, crypto industry capture of government...
2 weeks ago
The SEC is still busy even though it may soon be undermined, crypto industry capture of government continues to worsen, and several media outlets botch their crypto reporting at a time it’s needed most.
Musings on Markets
Tesla in 2023: A Return to Reality, The Start of the End or Time to Buy?
I am not much of a car person and view cars primarily as a mode of transportation. I drive a 2010...
a year ago
I am not much of a car person and view cars primarily as a mode of transportation. I drive a 2010 Honda Civic, a perfectly serviceable vehicle that is never going to get oohs and ahas from onlookers, but I feel no urge to value Honda. I don't own a Tesla, and have only driven...
FIRE v London
Nov ’24: 3x
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and...
a month ago
London life I’ve been keeping busy as winter in London sets in. The Christmas lights are all out and looking resplendent, and both the West End and the City are feeling pretty buzzy. For all the general ‘UK stuck in the weeds’ economic commentary, we feel a long way from any talk...
Seeking Wisdom
Ruturaj Gaikwad, P-value, and Bayes’ Theorem
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is...
7 months ago
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is my favorite team. Ruturaj Gaikwad, the new CSK captain for the IPL 2024 season, lost 10 out of 13 tosses: LLLLWLLLLLLWL. The probability of seeing the sequence LLLLWLLLLLLWL is...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #164
Howard Marks on intelligent risks, Li Lu's amazing life story, Damodaran on streaming, Thompson on...
a year ago
Howard Marks on intelligent risks, Li Lu's amazing life story, Damodaran on streaming, Thompson on Charter vs. Disney, Taleb's favorite literary works, Buffett's Japanese investments, and more ...
Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦)
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
12 months ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
Mazdak
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
a year ago
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
The Rational Walk
A Quarter Century of Investing
Lessons learned from a quarter century of active investing, along with annual performance...
5 hours ago
Lessons learned from a quarter century of active investing, along with annual performance statistics.
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