The Rational Walk
The Digest #176
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land,...
a year ago
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land, John Oliver skewers dollar stores, Apple regrets, The Great Books Journal
Citation Needed
Businessweek: Crypto Got What It Wanted in November’s Election. Now What?
The industry is now in a position to weaken financial rules that might protect consumers from the...
2 weeks ago
The industry is now in a position to weaken financial rules that might protect consumers from the next crypto crash.
Mazdak
Tired of Chasing Leads? Elevate Your Value Proposition
Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
2 months ago
Are you spending countless hours chasing leads that aren't quite right?
The Rational Walk
The Trust Deficit
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the...
6 months ago
My thoughts on the severe deficit of trust facing the United States on its 248th birthday and the urgent need to correct course.
Mazdak
How Big Tech Could Lose Everything to Appease Trump
In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald...
2 months ago
In a world on the brink, Big Tech is playing a dangerous game. The 2024 US election could see Donald Trump, a man who has openly attacked these companies, return to power.
Mazdak
Canadian Real Estate Market Predictions for 2024
As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for...
a year ago
As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for investors. While the explosive growth of recent years is likely to abate, a multitude of factors will continue to shape the market's trajectory. Understanding these factors is crucial for...
Seeking Wisdom
Few thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered...
a year ago
I’ve been writing my thoughts on life, psychology, and mindset for some time. I’ve considered transferring some of these writings from Notion into this post. In physics, three laws can explain 99% of observations. However, in life, psychology, and mindset, 99 laws can barely...
Musings on Markets
The Power of Expectations: Nvidia's Earnings and the Market Reaction!
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled...
4 months ago
Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled for after the market closed. That call, at first sight, contained exceptionally good news, with revenues and earnings coming in at stratospheric levels, and above expectations,...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 — Overview
A high level overview of third quarter results and year-to-date repurchase activity.
a year ago
A high level overview of third quarter results and year-to-date repurchase activity.
The Diff
Meta's Least-Untrusted Clone Model
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More...
2 weeks ago
Plus! AI Interfaces; The Many Peaks of Mobile; Borrowing Distribution Networks; Ad Arbitrages; More YouTube AI IP
Seeking Wisdom
How a Machine Learns
How a fly helped Descartes to invent the Cartesian plane René Descartes (1596 – 1650), the famous...
a year ago
How a fly helped Descartes to invent the Cartesian plane René Descartes (1596 – 1650), the famous philosopher and mathematician, was lying in his bed, eyes fixed on a fly on the ceiling. As he pondered how to accurately describe the fly’s position, Descartes visualized the...
Mazdak
Nvidia Takes the Crown: The AI Chip Giant Dethrones Apple
Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
2 months ago
Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world's most valuable company.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2023, most notably Dominion by Tom...
a year ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the third quarter of 2023, most notably Dominion by Tom Holland and The Path Between the Seas by David McCullough.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Trading, Money, Homemakers, Taxes, AI, Passive
4 weeks ago
Trading, Money, Homemakers, Taxes, AI, Passive
Mazdak
OpenAI's Meltdown: A Fight for the Future of AI
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching...
a year ago
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching implications for the future of artificial intelligence (AI). OpenAI, known for its groundbreaking ChatGPT technology, is considered a frontrunner in the AI race, and its fate could...
balajis.com
#5 - India's Largest Exit
Listen now (161 min) | The $16B acquisition of Flipkart was the largest in Indian tech history....
a year ago
Listen now (161 min) | The $16B acquisition of Flipkart was the largest in Indian tech history. Balaji speaks with Flipkart founder/CEO Binny Bansal on how he built the company from scratch when Indian startups weren't even a thing — and how Flipkart's rise parallels the rise of...
Mazdak
5 Sneaky Financial Traps Sabotaging Your Middle-Class Dream (and How to Escape Them)
In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth...
a year ago
In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth amidst rising costs and shifting landscapes requires careful navigation, avoiding insidious traps that can derail your financial goals. This newsletter identifies
Commoncog
Goodhart's Law Isn't as Useful as You Might Think
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it....
a year ago
Goodhart's Law is useless. It tells you about a phenomenon, but it doesn't tell you how to solve it. We look at how organisations actually prevent Goodhart's Law, and illustrate this with Amazon's Weekly Business Review as an example.
Moneyness
The first round of U.S. secondary sanctions on Russia is working
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing...
10 months ago
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing payments for a narrow range of products that are on a so-called "green list," reports Ragip Soylu. This broad debanking of Russia by Turkey is part of the fallout from President...
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
11 months ago
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
Mazdak
Playing it Safe Paid Off in 2023, But Now It's Time to Take More Risk with Your Money
2023 was a year of playing it safe for investors, with many flocking to the security and guaranteed...
a year ago
2023 was a year of playing it safe for investors, with many flocking to the security and guaranteed returns of cash and cash-like investments. This was largely driven by the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, which boosted the yields of money-market funds and similar...
balajis.com
#4 - The Winklevoss Twins and Balaji
Listen now (50 min) | Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss talk with Balaji about how Washington, DC is...
a year ago
Listen now (50 min) | Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss talk with Balaji about how Washington, DC is losing crypto, while other countries like the UAE and Japan are winning web3. OUTLINE 0:00 - I'm 6'5", 220, and there's two of me! 0:58 - Crypto flippening from America to Asia
Citation Needed
Wind the clock
A message to those asking “what do I do now?”
a month ago
A message to those asking “what do I do now?”
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
15 hours ago
Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
Commoncog
Executing on Becoming Data Driven: The Technicals
A technical overview of how I'm applying the methods and ideas of the Becoming Data Driven in...
a year ago
A technical overview of how I'm applying the methods and ideas of the Becoming Data Driven in Business series.
Commoncog
The Deming Paradox: Operationally Rigorous Companies Aren't Very Nice Places to Work
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same...
a year ago
Is it possible to be data driven and operationally rigorous and still be human centric at the same time? Deming — who came up with these data techniques — believe that it is possible. I'm not so sure.
Mazdak
Mastering Twitter/X Growth: Strategies to Skyrocket Your Follower Count
Twitter/X stands as one of the leading platforms for sharing ideas, connecting with others, and...
a year ago
Twitter/X stands as one of the leading platforms for sharing ideas, connecting with others, and building your personal brand. With the right strategies, you can transform your Twitter presence into a thriving community of engaged followers. In this blog post, I'll dive into...
Citation Needed
"The Monkey Fraud": An interview with Ryder Ripps
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club...
9 months ago
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club trademark infringement and racism.
Bits about Money
Markets in power
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
over a year ago
How physics and infrastructure combine to generate (ba dum bum) the power market.
Commoncog
Under The Hood
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent...
a month ago
How do you shape employee culture? How do you win employee commitment? Under The Hood has a coherent model for building this skill.
Commoncog
The Hospitality Solution in Your Business
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve...
3 months ago
A look at the main provocation of Will Guidara’s Unreasonable Hospitality: that you can solve (certain) business problems with hospitality, and that it only takes a little thoughtfulness to do so.
Musings on Markets
Beat your Bot: Building your moat against AI
It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest...
4 months ago
It seems like a lifetime has passed since artificial intelligence (AI) became the market's biggest mover, but Open AI introduced the world to ChatGPT on November 30, 2022. While ChatGPT itself represented a low-tech variation of AI, it opened the door to AI not only as a business...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest
MBA Weekly...
3 days ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest
MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two
weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week...
Calculated Risk
Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
a week ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
The Rational Walk
A Seamless Web of Deserved Trust
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
a year ago
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
Moneyness
The intensifying effort to isolate Russia's banks
Last week the U.S. government expanded the coverage of its secondary sanctions to encompass most of...
6 months ago
Last week the U.S. government expanded the coverage of its secondary sanctions to encompass most of Russia's banks. It's a very big step, one that has been long-awaited by sanctions watchers, and will likely have significant repercussions for Russia and its trading partners....
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Evolving Estate Plan
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new...
6 months ago
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new charitable trust run by his children.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 3
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. The MNIST dataset is the “hello world” of machine learning, containing images of handwritten digits that are used to train machine learning models. It...
Citation Needed
Caroline Ellison: A woman with agency or a helpless pawn?
Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX...
3 months ago
Why did the former Alameda Research CEO receive only two years imprisonment for her role in the FTX collapse?
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP, Existing Home Sales
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 232 thousand initial claims, down from 242 thousand last week.
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (Third...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in...
9 months ago
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in the game, repurchase activity, and stock based compensation.
Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
7 months ago
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
Citation Needed
Video: The charges against Binance
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant...
11 months ago
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant Binance and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, I started writing up an overview of everything that had happened to the company over the past few years. I'd written separately about a...
Farnam Street
The Winner’s Edge
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed...
a year ago
A lot of otherwise talented people are too pessimistic to actually do anything. They are paralyzed by risks that don’t exist and greatly exaggerate them where they do, preventing them from being one of the best. Consider this lightly edited excerpt from a conversation between...
The Diff
Just Another Risk Asset
Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
3 weeks ago
Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
The Rational Walk
The Digest #220
The Intelligent Investor, Antitrust and Big Tech, Berkshire Hathaway's Moat, Nuclear War Risks, The...
2 months ago
The Intelligent Investor, Antitrust and Big Tech, Berkshire Hathaway's Moat, Nuclear War Risks, The Invisible Man, AIG's Rise & Fall, Housing Prices, Barbary Wars, Speeches of Pericles
Moneyness
Where now FedNow?
Earlier this month the Federal Reserve introduced its new instant retail payments system, FedNow....
a year ago
Earlier this month the Federal Reserve introduced its new instant retail payments system, FedNow. This is actually the U.S.'s second real-time retail settlement system. The first, The Clearing House's Real Time Payments Network, or RTP, opened for business back in 2017.
As FedNow...
Mazdak
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
a year ago
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
Mazdak
Loonie on the Brink: Can Canada Escape US Monetary Policy?
The Canadian and American economies are deeply intertwined.
2 months ago
The Canadian and American economies are deeply intertwined.
The Rational Walk
Prometheus Bound
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus...
6 months ago
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus dating back to the fifth century BC.
FIRE v London
June ’24: Election fever
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west...
5 months ago
June was busy. I travelled more than usual in June. Partly in the UK – visiting Glasgow, the west country, the south coast and the Isle of Wight; partly overseas – I visited Ibiza for a few days of R&R. Meanwhile, the election campaigns were in full swing. Nigel Farage did his...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Interest Rates Since the Federal Reserve Began Cutting Rates
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Click on graph for larger image.
10-Year T1PS Yield
a week ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Click on graph for larger image.
10-Year T1PS Yield
Moneyness
What does the recent ruling on the Emergencies Act mean for your banking rights?
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy...
11 months ago
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy protest in 2022 contravened the protestor's rights. In this post I want to provide my reading of this particular ruling and what is at stake for Canadians and their bank...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
2 weeks ago
Inflation, AI, Linkrot, Data, Research, Pod Shops, Life Advice, Nvidia
The Rational Walk
The Power of Investment Journals
Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles...
a year ago
Writing down the rationale for investment decisions is a prerequisite for success. This articles explores lessons I learned dating back to 2009.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2024: A Stock Comeback - The Low Expectations Game!
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation...
11 months ago
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation out of control and a recession on the horizon. While stocks had their ups and downs during the year, they ended the year strong, and recouped, at least in the aggregate, most of...
Seeking Wisdom
Books I loved reading in 2022
over a year ago
Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
a year ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
Mazdak
Regulating Crypto
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end...
a month ago
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end for crypto, or a necessary step towards mainstream adoption?
Citation Needed
Video: The Cryptocurrency Industry's Unprecedented Election Spending
Let's talk about where the money came from, where it went, the cryptocurrency industry's political...
a month ago
Let's talk about where the money came from, where it went, the cryptocurrency industry's political goals, and what’s next.
The Rational Walk
Roth IRA Conversions For Early Retirees
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and...
2 months ago
Roth IRA conversions could make sense for early retirees who are able to control their income and avoid falling into a high tax bracket.
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
11 months ago
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
Mazdak
Understanding the Stock Market Cycle
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets...
7 months ago
The stock market cycle is a crucial concept for investors aiming to navigate the financial markets effectively. It represents the period from a market low to a peak and back again. Understanding the dynamics behind these cycles can help investors maintain their strategies during...
Citation Needed
Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details
I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
11 months ago
I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
The Rational Walk
GEICO Prioritizes Profits Over Market Share
Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price...
a year ago
Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price of ceding market share that will be costly to regain in the future.
Mazdak
A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the...
a year ago
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the economy that remains ill: the office sector of the U.S. commercial real-estate market. ** What's the Problem?** Hybrid/remote work: What began as a two-week work-from-home...
Moneyness
How my views on financial privacy have evolved over a decade
I began exploring the topic of financial privacy and payment anonymity in the early days of this...
a month ago
I began exploring the topic of financial privacy and payment anonymity in the early days of this blog. Over the past decade, my views have shifted significantly—here's how and why.
Rereading my earliest mentions of financial privacy, they now seem a bit... idealistic? extreme?...
Musings on Markets
The School Bell Rings: Time for Class!
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting...
11 months ago
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting in a couple of weeks, I would like to invite you, if you are interested, to come along for the ride. I know! I know! Most of you are not enrolled at NYU, paying nosebleed prices,...
Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
over a year ago
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
Musings on Markets
Disagreements and First Principles: The Pushback on my Tesla Valuation
I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago, and as has always been the...
a year ago
I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago, and as has always been the case when I value this company, I have heard from both sides of the Tesla divide. Some of you believe that I am being far too generous in my forecasts of revenues and profitability...
The Rational Walk
American Prometheus
The tragic story of J. Robert Oppenheimer encompasses far more than science and politics. It is a...
a year ago
The tragic story of J. Robert Oppenheimer encompasses far more than science and politics. It is a cautionary tale of human nature that holds timeless lessons.
Musings on Markets
Breach of Trust: Decoding the Banking Crisis
In March 2023, the fall of Silicon Valley Bank shocked investors not only because it was unforeseen,...
a year ago
In March 2023, the fall of Silicon Valley Bank shocked investors not only because it was unforeseen, but also because of the speed with which it unfolded. That failure has had a domino effect, with Signature Bank falling soon after, followed by Credit Suisse in April 2023 and by...
Mazdak
The "Buy, Borrow, Die" Strategy: How the Wealthy Avoid Taxes
The wealthy have a secret weapon when it comes to taxes: the "buy, borrow, die" strategy. This...
a year ago
The wealthy have a secret weapon when it comes to taxes: the "buy, borrow, die" strategy. This strategy allows them to avoid capital gains taxes, interest payments, and estate taxes. Here's how it works: Buy assets and hold them. This could be anything from real estate to stocks...
Mazdak
Free Press or Bezos Press? The Washington Post Stays Silent
This episode examines the Washington Post's controversial decision to no longer endorse presidential...
2 months ago
This episode examines the Washington Post's controversial decision to no longer endorse presidential candidates, a move that has sparked outrage and accusations of cowardice, especially given the perceived threat to democracy posed by one of the candidates.
Mazdak
The Rise of Nvidia and the Fall of Intel
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its...
2 months ago
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its influence in the tech world.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
A brief excerpt:
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November, up 3.3% from October’s preliminary pace and up 4.6% from...
Mazdak
The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real...
10 months ago
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real estate in Canada. It's important to note that this strategy is generally more complex and may not be suitable for everyone. When Owning Real Estate Personally Might Be Better
FIRE v London
May ’23: Magic megatech
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
a year ago
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
Commoncog
The Shape of a Technological Window
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how...
over a year ago
Technological Windows is Steve Jobs's conception of the game of consumer technology. We look at how he used it over the course of his career. Note: this is a follow-up to and an update for the Commoncog Case Library Beta.
Mazdak
The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
a year ago
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.8% YoY in November
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
2 weeks ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2024.
CPI Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in November, down from 4.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
The Rational Walk
American Scripture
A review of Pauline Maier's book, "American Scripture", which details the conditions leading up to...
7 months ago
A review of Pauline Maier's book, "American Scripture", which details the conditions leading up to the drafting of the Declaration of Independence.
Commoncog
The Limits of Operational Excellence
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven,...
8 months ago
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven, achieve operational excellence, and die, and others acquire Process Power and win?
Mazdak
TFSA 2025: Your Complete Guide to Tax-Free Savings in Canada
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to...
a month ago
In the ever-evolving landscape of personal finance, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) continues to be a bright spot for Canadian investors.
balajis.com
The Network State Podcast with Balaji
The Network State Podcast with Balaji Srinivasan is on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Anchor.fm,...
a year ago
The Network State Podcast with Balaji Srinivasan is on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Anchor.fm, and thenetworkstate.com/podcast.
Calculated Risk
Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts...
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential...
a week ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
Moneyness
Tornado Cash un-OFAC'ed
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado...
a month ago
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado Cash, a bot that can be used for obfuscating crypto, is safe from being sanctioned.
I first wrote about Tornado Cash in 2021, before its legal troubles began, warning of the risks...
Musings on Markets
A Zomato 2022 Update: Value, Pricing and the Gap
On July 21, 2021, I valued Zomato just ahead of its initial public offering at about ₹41 per share....
over a year ago
On July 21, 2021, I valued Zomato just ahead of its initial public offering at about ₹41 per share. The market clearly had a very different view, as the stock premiered at ₹74 per share and soared into the stratosphere, peaking at ₹169 per share in late 2021. The last few months...
balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
12 months ago
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
Mazdak
Unplugging Australia: Kids vs. Social Media
Australia is going offline!
a month ago
Australia is going offline!
Musings on Markets
Catastrophic Risk: Investing and Business Implications
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers...
10 months ago
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers on companies that I should value next. While I don't have the time or the bandwidth to value all of the suggested companies, a reader from Iceland, a couple of weeks ago, made a...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #202
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter...
7 months ago
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter syndrome, Decline of higher education, Howard Schultz, Cathie Wood, Robert Hagstrom
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd...
3 weeks ago
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays.
----- Monday, December 16th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #206
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of...
5 months ago
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of Silicon Valley, Self-esteem and outer scorecards, MMT's founder is worried about deficits
The Rational Walk
The Magic of Compounding
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my...
6 months ago
The magic of compounding was evident when I recently compared my lifetime gross wage income to my current net worth.
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
a year ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
balajis.com
The Network State Conference
Come to Amsterdam on October 30 to build the parallel establishment.
a year ago
Come to Amsterdam on October 30 to build the parallel establishment.
Citation Needed
Issue 66 – Pretensions to relevance
FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky...
3 months ago
FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried says he wants a do-over just as Celsius fraudster Alex Mashinsky goes to trial, and some more ill-received blockchain games suggest “GameFi” has an uncertain future.
Commoncog
One Definition of Wisdom
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
10 months ago
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
The Diff
How High Does AI's Revenue Per User Get?
Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't...
3 weeks ago
Plus! The Challenges of Scaling Challengers; The Reddit Loop; Scaling AI by Doing Things That Don't Scale Yet; Complete Markets; Legitimacy and Growth
Mazdak
Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open...
a year ago
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open source development has emerged, firing shots at the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. These tech giants have captured much of the AI spotlight in 2023, but the alliance believes...
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
9 months ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
The Rational Walk
The Dividend Signal
Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or...
8 months ago
Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or negative development for shareholders?
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 49.3% in December
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3%...
2 days ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3% in December, up from 48.4% in November. The employment index was at 45.3%, down from 48.1% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 52.5%, up from 50.4%.
Manufacturing...
Moneyness
Top 13 blog posts
I've been writing on this blog for a while now – over ten years. Many of those posts are now...
a year ago
I've been writing on this blog for a while now – over ten years. Many of those posts are now forgotten (by myself included), but some were pretty popular at the time, and a few still get a steady stream of readers. Someone recently asked me for a list of my top ranked posts...
Mazdak
Nearly All US Job Growth in November Came From Just 3 Sectors!
Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's...
a year ago
Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's even more interesting is that nearly all of this job growth came from just three sectors! So, which sectors are we talking about? Healthcare: Leading the pack with a steady demand...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
a year ago
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
The Rational Walk
The Digest #175
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount...
a year ago
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount rates, Evolving moats, Jay Gould, Garry Tan, Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Steve Ells
Musings on Markets
Toys for Billionaires: Sports Franchises as Trophy Assets!
I have always loved sports, playing tennis and cricket when I was growing up, before transitioning...
a year ago
I have always loved sports, playing tennis and cricket when I was growing up, before transitioning to fan status, cheering for my favored teams from the sidelines. I also like finance, perhaps not as much as sports, but there are winners and losers in the investment game as well....
Citation Needed
Substackers Against Nazis
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
a year ago
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway MBA
Studying Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Berkshire Hathaway's history can provide a level of...
a year ago
Studying Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Berkshire Hathaway's history can provide a level of fluency in business and investing rivaling a costly MBA degree.
The Rational Walk
Poor Charlie’s Almanack
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five...
9 months ago
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five psychological tendencies that can cause human misjudgment.
Bits about Money
Banking in very uncertain times
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we...
a year ago
We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis: why, what we're doing to avoid it, and what we may not get about it.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of...
9 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of Anne Frank, Endurance, Crime and Punishment, and the Iliad.
Mazdak
AI.com to Chat.com: OpenAI's Domain Domination
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've...
a month ago
From AI.com to Chat.com, OpenAI is making big moves in the world of conversational AI. They've dropped a huge amount of cash – likely over $15.5 million – to snag the premium domain Chat.com.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #189
Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty...
10 months ago
Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty hours in the Vision Pro, Fairfax Financial, Parks America, Howard Marks, Danny Myer
Citation Needed
Issue 51 – It's quiet... too quiet
It's been a quiet few weeks in the world of crypto disasters... too quiet.
10 months ago
It's been a quiet few weeks in the world of crypto disasters... too quiet.
Citation Needed
I am my own legal department: the promise and peril of “just go independent”
Independent publishing is one important facet of the media ecosystem, and while I love it, I know it...
2 months ago
Independent publishing is one important facet of the media ecosystem, and while I love it, I know it is not the path for everyone.
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.7% in November
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and...
2 weeks ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8 percent from November 2023.
report:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
The Rational Walk
Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined...
8 months ago
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined ratio.
Farnam Street
A Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active...
over a year ago
Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active participant, the experience can transform the way you think, and how you see the world. *** Here’s a situation familiar to many of us: We decide to take a vacation and go somewhere...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread
Shanghai, Wrong, Returns, Nuclear, Employee Performance, Feedback Loops, Buffett
a month ago
Shanghai, Wrong, Returns, Nuclear, Employee Performance, Feedback Loops, Buffett
The Rational Walk
Two Sides of the Same Coin
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the...
11 months ago
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the longer it will take to achieve financial independence.
Mazdak
How to Build Wealth: 5 Key Principles
Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is...
a year ago
Building wealth is a long-term goal that requires time, discipline, and consistency. But it is possible for anyone who is willing to put in the work. Here are 5 key principles to help you build wealth: Live below your means. This is the single most important thing you can do to...
Mazdak
Unlocking Tax Savings and Building Wealth for Your Children: A Smart Strategy for Business Owners
As a business owner, you're constantly seeking ways to optimize your operations, reduce costs, and...
a year ago
As a business owner, you're constantly seeking ways to optimize your operations, reduce costs, and maximize profits. But have you considered a strategy that not only benefits your business but also sets your children up for financial success? The concept of hiring your children...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #184
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing,...
12 months ago
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing, Damodaran's 2024 data update, Michael Ovitz, Live Oak, Red Bull, Capital allocation
Commoncog
Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts
Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
9 months ago
Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
a year ago
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
Mazdak
A Brighter Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024?
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples...
a year ago
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples through the housing market, sparking both excitement and cautious optimism among prospective buyers and existing homeowners alike. While the prospect of lower mortgage rates is...
Mazdak
The Dangers of AI "Answers"
From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring...
a month ago
From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring the lines between fact and fiction.
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.3% to 3.1%
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter...
a week ago
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q4 domestic final sales forecast stands at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Dec 27th estimate]
emphasis added
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model...
Calculated Risk
Census: The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024
From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades...
2 weeks ago
From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades
The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, according to the new Vintage 2024 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
As the nation’s...
Mazdak
Jury Delivers Major Blow to Google in Antitrust Case: Play Store Deemed Illegal Monopoly
In a historic ruling that could shake the foundations of the mobile app ecosystem, a federal jury...
a year ago
In a historic ruling that could shake the foundations of the mobile app ecosystem, a federal jury has found Google Play guilty of violating antitrust laws in a lawsuit brought by Epic Games. This landmark decision has sent shockwaves through the tech industry and raised questions...
Mazdak
Tech Titans: AI Race Heats Up!
We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial...
2 months ago
We will explore the intensifying competition between major tech companies in the field of artificial intelligence.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Meeting
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage...
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
mortgage purchase applications index.
Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.344 million SAAR, up from 1.311 million SAAR.
Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator...
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
a year ago
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
Commoncog
What Rigorous Process Improvement in Education Looks Like
What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
3 months ago
What an rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should do this in your own organisational contexts.
Mazdak
DOJ Breaks Up Google, Elden Ring Sold, and Windows Goes Meta
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will...
a month ago
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will the internet ever be the same?
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.3% Range
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to...
3 weeks ago
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to
3.0% q/q saar. Additionally, our 4Q US GDP tracker was unchanged at 2.1% q/q saar. [Dec 13th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final...
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
10 months ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
Seeking Wisdom
It’s a treasure trove of health insights!
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled...
2 months ago
Use Insulin wisely Life on Earth started simple. For nearly 2 billion years, tiny single-celled organisms dominated. Then, a lucky accident changed everything. One cell swallowed another, and the swallowed cell became mitochondria, the powerhouse of complex cells. This chance...
Moneyness
Inflation as a tax
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order...
a year ago
Last week I explored how Henry VIII resorted to coin debasement as a way to raise revenues in order to fight his wars. This provided Henry with the financial firepower to annex the city of Boulogne from the French in 1544, albeit at the price of England experiencing one of its...
The Rational Walk
Buffett Resumes Occidental Purchases
Berkshire spent $246.4 million to acquire 3.9 million OXY shares between October 23 and October 25.
a year ago
Berkshire spent $246.4 million to acquire 3.9 million OXY shares between October 23 and October 25.
balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got
Your assets are the government's collateral.
9 months ago
Your assets are the government's collateral.
The Rational Walk
New Articles Moving to Newsletter
Effective today, I will no longer post new articles to this website, rationalwalk.com. All new...
a year ago
Effective today, I will no longer post new articles to this website, rationalwalk.com. All new articles will be posted on my Substack at newsletter.rationalwalk.com.
Mazdak
How Long (and Why) You Must Keep Every Business Record 🇨🇦
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable...
11 months ago
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable records. This isn't just about staying organized; it's about complying with the law, managing your finances, and protecting yourself from audits. But with so many rules and regulations,...
Mazdak
The Unexpected Saviour of Journalism
In a digital landscape drowning in AI-generated noise, an unlikely hero emerges: generative AI...
a month ago
In a digital landscape drowning in AI-generated noise, an unlikely hero emerges: generative AI itself.
Moneyness
The effects of Russian sanctions as portrayed in YouTube videos
Last month American provocateur Tucker Carlson visited a Russian grocery store. Because it was...
9 months ago
Last month American provocateur Tucker Carlson visited a Russian grocery store. Because it was filled to the brim with food, Carlson claims that western sanctions placed on Russia aren't having an effect. "We've been told sanctions on Russia have had a devastating effect on its
...
balajis.com
Network State Conference 2023
Come to Amsterdam on October 30, 2023 to build the parallel establishment.
a year ago
Come to Amsterdam on October 30, 2023 to build the parallel establishment.
Mazdak
Anthropic & Amazon Partnership
In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup,...
a month ago
In the world of cutting-edge AI, a power couple has emerged: Anthropic, the ambitious AI startup, and Amazon, the tech giant with cloud dominance.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #170
The Precautionary Principle, GEICO Layoffs, Superlinear Returns, TIPS for Retirement, Rockefeller's...
a year ago
The Precautionary Principle, GEICO Layoffs, Superlinear Returns, TIPS for Retirement, Rockefeller's advice to his son, Impact of GLP-1 agonists, Tesla's IPO, Conference call transcripts, and more ...
The Rational Walk
In the Zone
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to...
8 months ago
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to provide valuable insights about our health.
Commoncog
An Increase in Membership Prices
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old...
a year ago
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s Uncertain Future
Warren Buffett's concerns about the regulatory climate for the utility industry has negative...
9 months ago
Warren Buffett's concerns about the regulatory climate for the utility industry has negative implications for PacifiCorp and BHE's other subsidiaries.
Commoncog
Focus Doesn't Mean Doing One Thing at a Time
Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time....
over a year ago
Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time. This is what focus looks like at an organisational level, told through the story of a business turnaround and the Marine Corps approach to war.
Commoncog
Setting the Business Expertise Series Free
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her...
a year ago
Removing the paywall on The Business Expertise Series, which covers the work of Lia DiBello and her collaborators.
Moneyness
How to debase the coinage in order to pay for wars
Henry VIII, after Hans Holbein the Younger
It's fun to imagine traveling back in time and engaging...
a year ago
Henry VIII, after Hans Holbein the Younger
It's fun to imagine traveling back in time and engaging with the then-prevailing technologies. Would you be able to ride a boneshaker or use a counting board? It's probably harder than you think: kids today can't even use a 1980s rotary...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2024: Danger and Opportunity - Bringing Risk into the Equation!
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023,...
11 months ago
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound. In this post, I look at risk, a central theme in finance and...
FIRE v London
Feeling broke
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is...
a year ago
My psychology around money has changed significantly over the last two years. While some of that is captured in my monthly portfolio updates, I thought it was worth recording some of my emotions while they are still fresh. Two years ago Turning the clock back, my financial...
Mazdak
OpenAI in Turmoil: Altman and Brockman Join Microsoft, Employees Revolt
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the...
a year ago
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the non-profit research company behind groundbreaking artificial intelligence advancements, are joining Microsoft to lead a new research unit. This move comes after failed talks to reinstate...
Citation Needed
We can have a different web
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
8 months ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
Calculated Risk
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average...
5 days ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices).
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.6% Annual Gain in October 2024
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home...
The Diff
Infrastructure on top of Infrastructure
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous...
2 weeks ago
Plus! AI as an Interface; AI and Property Rights; Covering an EV Short Position; Heterogeneous Consumption Baskets as Subtle Union-Busting; Second-Order Effects
Musings on Markets
A Business Upended: Streaming disrupts the Entertainment Business!
It has been an unsettling summer for anyone with a stake in the movie, television and broadcasting...
a year ago
It has been an unsettling summer for anyone with a stake in the movie, television and broadcasting businesses. The strike by screen actors and writers which started in July is now into almost into its third month, with no end in sight, putting at risk the pipeline of movies and...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #199
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's...
7 months ago
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, A long run perspective, the parent-therapy trap
Mazdak
Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones...
10 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones of Canadian financial planning. Both offer distinct advantages for saving and investing, but exceeding their annual contribution limits can lead to unwanted financial consequences.
Musings on Markets
META Lesson 2: Accounting Inconsistencies and Consequences
In my last post, I used Facebook's recent troubles to talk about the importance of corporate...
over a year ago
In my last post, I used Facebook's recent troubles to talk about the importance of corporate governance, and how we, as investors, have abandoned the power to change management at many younger tech companies in return for being able to invest in young tech companies, with growth...
balajis.com
#3 - The President of Palau
Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is...
a year ago
Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is becoming a digital leader, experimenting with everything from on-chain identity to drone delivery. Despite having less than 20,000 citizens, Palau is a full UN member state. Its path to...
balajis.com
The Elondrop
Build the political support necessary to free Twitter with the largest airdrop in history.
over a year ago
Build the political support necessary to free Twitter with the largest airdrop in history.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2023: The Earnings Test
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to...
a year ago
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates reverted back to pre-2008 levels, and risk capital discovered that risk has a downside. During the course of the year, investors also...
Moneyness
The long arm of OFAC and its reach into the Ethereum network
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving...
a year ago
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving Tornado Cash, a piece of blockchain infrastructure that was sanctioned by the U.S. government last year for providing mixing services to North Korea.
Over the last two weeks...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #165
Buffett on Inflation, Dollar General, Due Diligence, Personal Libraries, The role of AI in drug...
a year ago
Buffett on Inflation, Dollar General, Due Diligence, Personal Libraries, The role of AI in drug discovery, Small-cap opportunities, and interviews of Peter Brown, Bill Gross, Chris Bloomstran.
Moneyness
Kraken v Kraken, or how to protect the public from crypto exchange failures
It's been a full year since FTX International and FTX-US collapsed, and the shocking thing is –...
a year ago
It's been a full year since FTX International and FTX-US collapsed, and the shocking thing is – there is still no regulated crypto venue in the U.S.! You'd think some lessons would have been learnt.
To best protect the public from the Sam Bankman-Frieds of the world, what the...
Mazdak
The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large....
9 months ago
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large. Enter the 4% rule, a popular guideline that suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and adjust for inflation thereafter. But is it a guaranteed...
Mazdak
Commercial vs. Residential Real Estate: Which One Is Right for You?
Investing in real estate can be a great way to build wealth and generate passive income. But which...
a year ago
Investing in real estate can be a great way to build wealth and generate passive income. But which type of real estate is right for you? Commercial or residential? In this blog post, we will compare and contrast commercial and residential real estate, and help you decide which...
Mazdak
AI's Energy Problem: Can We Power Progress Without Wrecking the Planet? ⚡️🌎
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai...
a year ago
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai for COP28, it's more important than ever to understand the complex relationship between AI and climate change. Why it matters: AI could become one of the biggest energy guzzlers on...
The Rational Walk
Burlington Northern Santa Fe — 2023 Results
Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
10 months ago
Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
Seeking Wisdom
Focus on the process, not the outcome
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket...
4 months ago
Woorkeri Raman, a former Indian cricketer and former coach of the India women’s national cricket team, has two non-negotiables. As an offspinner, you must never get cut, and you must never get driven through the covers. Even when Ravichandran Ashwin takes five wickets, Raman will...
Mazdak
Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and...
12 months ago
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and battling for the last box of Oreos. The retail giant is about to revolutionize your shopping experience with a generative AI makeover. Imagine this: You're planning a Super Bowl bash,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #197
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
8 months ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales tomorrow, Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96...
Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
a year ago
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #190
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben...
10 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben Graham's summer on a farm, Income taxes, Interviews of Bruce Berkowitz and Howard Marks, and more...
The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
10 months ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
Citation Needed
Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x"
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
11 months ago
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
Commoncog
Putting Amazon’s PR/FAQ to Practice
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company...
over a year ago
What it's like putting Amazon's famed Working Backwards process to practice in a small company context, and what was surprising and difficult about it.
The Rational Walk
Hesiod’s Works and Days
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it...
7 months ago
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it was 2,700 years ago.
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett on Inflation — Part 2
Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto...
a year ago
Inflation took the auto insurance industry by surprise in the 1970s, impacting Berkshire's auto insurance business as well as nearly bankrupting GEICO.
Commoncog
Commoncog is Off for the Chinese New Year
A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
a year ago
A quick announcement. Happy Year of the Rabbit everyone!
Citation Needed
Polling: Are Democratic voters really “increasingly gravitating towards crypto”?
Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How...
4 months ago
Paradigm has polled some Democratic voters about crypto and released a summary of their results. How does it stack up to other industry polls, which are often heavily manipulated to paint a deceptively rosy picture?
Moneyness
It's time to impose Iran-calibre sanctions on Russia
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long...
12 months ago
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long list of sanctions that the G7 coalition has placed on Russia in response to its attack on Ukraine are surprisingly light compared to the fewer but far more-draconian sanctions...
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
A brief excerpt:
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Musings on Markets
Country Risk: A July 2023 Update!
I have looked at country risk, in all its dimensions, towards the middle of each year, for the last...
a year ago
I have looked at country risk, in all its dimensions, towards the middle of each year, for the last decade, for many reasons. One is curiosity, as political and economic crises roll through regions of the world, roiling long-held beliefs about safe and risky countries. The other...
Moneyness
Why bitcoiners should learn to accept bitcoin's ponzi nature as a good thing
When I describe bitcoin as a type of ponzi or pyramid, idealistic bitcoiners usually view this as an...
a year ago
When I describe bitcoin as a type of ponzi or pyramid, idealistic bitcoiners usually view this as an attack on the nobility of the bitcoin project. But they shouldn't. Bitcoin's ponzi nature is one of its greatest strength.
Imagine that you are trying to bootstrap an unorthodox...
FIRE v London
My 20 year property returns
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But...
a year ago
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But my net worth includes an important asset class – property – that I don’t normally track, but which I have held in some form for over 20 years. So, this post takes a look at how my…...
Bits about Money
A review of Number Go Up, on crypto shenanigans
A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether...
a year ago
A review of Zeke Faux's Number Go Up, with some bonus commentary on financial journalism and Tether specifically.
Mazdak
Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful...
a year ago
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful player in the industry. This deal puts an end to a years-long investigation into Binance. The deal: CZ agreed to pay $50 million in fines and is prohibited from operating or managing...
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
8 months ago
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
Moneyness
Memecoins are the point
Cypherpunks wanted to change the world. We ended up with memecoins.
Our story begins with some very...
2 months ago
Cypherpunks wanted to change the world. We ended up with memecoins.
Our story begins with some very smart and idealistic developers, known as cypherpunks, creating a new technology know as a blockchain. Blockchains are databases, but decentralized. Advertised as being...
Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
a year ago
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
The Rational Walk
Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023)
A life well lived
a year ago
The Rational Walk
The Odyssey
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
8 months ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
Mazdak
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
a month ago
The AI Invasion: Is humanity on the verge of a digital takeover?
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
a year ago
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
FIRE v London
Mayday for IBKR margin lending
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No...
a year ago
Regular readers will know what a fan I have been of margin lending from Interactive Brokers. No longer. If you’ve read my other posts (like this or this or this) on margin lending, and are interested in exploring further, make you read this post before you do. Why I used to like...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.4% YoY
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
2 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #212
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates,...
4 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway at $1 Trillion, Warren Buffett's Canvas, Dollar General, Mr Market Miscalculates, Competing in Search, The American Dream, Li Lu, Deep Dive into AI, The Impact of Debt, and more ...
Moneyness
For the first time ever, euro paper money in circulation is shrinking
Why is the paper euro shrinking? Are we at peak cash?
To begin with, here is the data,...
a year ago
Why is the paper euro shrinking? Are we at peak cash?
To begin with, here is the data, charted:
As the orange line shows, Europe is experiencing its first year-over-year drop in paper money in circulation.
While it's tempting to attribute this to paper money's declining...
Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
a year ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
Mazdak
Google Pays $700 Million to Settle App Store Antitrust Concerns
Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling...
a year ago
Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling a major antitrust lawsuit brought by a coalition of states. This landmark deal marks a significant victory for developers and consumers alike, potentially paving the way for a more...
The Rational Walk
Pilot’s Founders vs. Berkshire Hathaway
Warren Buffett's reputation as a straight shooter is called into question by the Haslam family in a...
a year ago
Warren Buffett's reputation as a straight shooter is called into question by the Haslam family in a dispute over the valuation of their remaining 20% interest.
FIRE v London
July ’24: New UK government
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some...
5 months ago
July has been quite a busy month. I’ve been getting about a bit. Some South Coast action, some Mediterranean fun, a trip up to Oxford, a visit to one of England’s great Cathedrals, and more. And July saw some fine times in London. Both outdoors and inside. And of course we had...
Seeking Wisdom
Case for indexing
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In...
a year ago
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In 1989, 65% of the top 20 global companies were domiciled in Japan. After three decades, 65% of the top 20 global companies are from the US. No companies from Japan made into the top...
balajis.com
#2 - Tobi Lütke & Kaz Nejatian on Shopify's Country-Sized Economy
Listen now (127 min) | Tobi Lütke (Shopify Founder & CEO), Kaz Nejatian (Shopify COO), and Balaji...
a year ago
Listen now (127 min) | Tobi Lütke (Shopify Founder & CEO), Kaz Nejatian (Shopify COO), and Balaji review how Shopify rose from tiny startup to $180B+ global economy, with an annual GMV on par with the GDP of New Zealand. In the process they touch on Hayek, the Hanseatic League,...
Mazdak
5 Must-Read Finance Books for Building Wealth
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Negative Lollapalooza Effects
Sharing ideas can have benefits but there are also psychological risks. This article applies lessons...
a year ago
Sharing ideas can have benefits but there are also psychological risks. This article applies lessons from Charlie Munger's psychology of human misjudgment to investing.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Richmond Fed...
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December.
NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.
Mazdak
Canadian Mortgage Debt Growth Slows to Two-Decade Low, But Remains Elevated
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to...
a year ago
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to data from the Bank of Canada (BoC). However, mortgage debt growth remains historically high, despite the recent slowdown. The BoC's latest data shows that outstanding mortgage...
Commoncog
When Action Beats Prediction
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ......
a year ago
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ... isn't. What a theory of expertise in entrepreneurship tells us about creating new things in business.
Citation Needed
Coinbase appears to have violated campaign finance laws with a $25 million super PAC donation
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely...
5 months ago
Actively involved in contract negotiations with a federal government agency, Coinbase was likely prohibited from making its $25 million contribution to the Fairshake crypto super PAC in May 2024.
Mazdak
Inflation is Cooling Off: A Glimpse of Economic Stability ☀️
📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic....
a year ago
📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic. The moderation of inflation is a significant development that alleviates pressure on consumers and provides central banks with some breathing room. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's...
Musings on Markets
Putting the (Insta)cart before the (Grocery) horse: A COVID Favorite's Reality Check!
After years of rumors of an imminent IPO, Instacart has finally filed for a public offering of it’s...
a year ago
After years of rumors of an imminent IPO, Instacart has finally filed for a public offering of it’s shares, aspiring to raise about $600 million from markets, at a pricing of about $9-$10 billion for its equity. Coming in the week after ARM, an AI chip designer, also filed to go...
FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
7 months ago
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
Calculated Risk
Construction Spending Mostly Unchanged in November
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:
Construction spending...
3 days ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:
Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November...
Commoncog
Business Ecosystem Change Takes Time
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change...
6 months ago
The birth of Sony, and the possibility that private corporations and private individuals can change broader business ecosystems.
Mazdak
AI Energy Fears: Overblown or the Next Crisis?
Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
a month ago
Is the fear of AI's energy consumption a tempest in a teapot or a sign of a looming energy crisis?
Calculated Risk
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up...
2 weeks ago
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough). I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a...
Seeking Wisdom
What I learned from Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics Course at FLAME University
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University....
over a year ago
I had the privilege to attend Prof. Sanjay Bakshi’s Behavioral Economics course at FLAME University. Being his student since 2011, I realized my dream by sitting in his class for 3.5 days. Prof. Bakshi taught us around 20 different models from Charlie Munger’s Psychology of Human...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #221
Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro:...
2 months ago
Bezos on Media Bias, Marks on Asset Allocation, Moral Hazard, Meta's AI Prospects, Vision Pro: Success or Failure?, Berkshire in the 1960s, Whole Foods, Black Diamond, Merck, Wormholes
Mazdak
Tesla's Trump Card: How a Presidency Could Fuel a Trillion-Dollar Boom
What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
a month ago
What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
Commoncog
There Is No Truth in Business, Only Knowledge
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from...
a year ago
'Knowledge' here is defined as 'theories or models that help you predict better'. How an idea from W. Edwards Deming may well be a working philosophy of business.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #214
September 11, 2001, Nixon vs JFK, Apple's future, Damodaran on decline, Berkshire's book value,...
3 months ago
September 11, 2001, Nixon vs JFK, Apple's future, Damodaran on decline, Berkshire's book value, Founder mode, Chasing dividends, Caro on LBJ, Peter Lynch, Epicureanism, Mt Everest
The Rational Walk
The Digest #156
Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century...
a year ago
Flawed clinical studies, AI and employment, Anonymous wealth, Age of the universe, 19th century anarchy, Buffett and Japan, Claude Hopkins, Benjamin Franklin
Commoncog
A Most Unlikely Master of Capital Allocation
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in...
12 months ago
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in her life, then perhaps you could, too.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2023: Inflation and Interest Rates
If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more...
a year ago
If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. The US treasury market, considered by some still as a safe haven, was anything but safe or a haven, especially at the long maturities, as long...
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 16th Weekly Update: Inventory down 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 26.6% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now...
2 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now 7.7% below the peak for the year (8 weeks ago).
Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active...
Moneyness
Another Indian payments idea: a lightweight portable payments system for catastrophes
India is so far ahead of most of the world when it comes to payments technology that when a new...
a year ago
India is so far ahead of most of the world when it comes to payments technology that when a new Indian payments idea emerges, we should probably pay attention.
In its recent annual report, the Reserve Bank of India, the country's central bank, put forward the idea of a...
Mazdak
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed...
a year ago
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed as contributions to nonprofit organizations. Shares of Amazon fell 1.8% on Nov. 15 and 0.3% on Nov. 16. Bezos still holds 988.3 million shares of Amazon, around 10% of the company.
Musings on Markets
Tesla in 2023: A Return to Reality, The Start of the End or Time to Buy?
I am not much of a car person and view cars primarily as a mode of transportation. I drive a 2010...
a year ago
I am not much of a car person and view cars primarily as a mode of transportation. I drive a 2010 Honda Civic, a perfectly serviceable vehicle that is never going to get oohs and ahas from onlookers, but I feel no urge to value Honda. I don't own a Tesla, and have only driven...
The Rational Walk
Paid Subscriptions
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
8 months ago
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
Calculated Risk
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding...
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
A brief excerpt:
Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #163
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's...
a year ago
Corporate taxes, Berkshire's clean energy investments, Isaacson's biography of Elon Musk, ESPN's future, Nvidia, AI, Interpreting medical studies, Why Doomberg left Twitter, Jimmy Buffett, and more...
Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
6 months ago
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income?
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
11 months ago
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
Musings on Markets
Just do it! Brand Name Lessons from Nike'sTroubles!
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon...
3 months ago
I have spent the last week reading "Shoe Dog", Phil Knight's memoir of how a runner on the Oregon University track team built one of the great shoe companies in the world, in Nike. In addition to its entertainment value, and it is a fun book to read, I read it for two...
Moneyness
After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the...
2 weeks ago
What follows is an essay on how my thinking on bitcoin has changed since I began to write on the topic starting with my first post in October 2012. Since then I've written 109 posts on the Moneyness Blog that reference bitcoin, along with a few dozen articles at venues like...
The Rational Walk
Free Articles!
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
8 months ago
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
Calculated Risk
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to All!
High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!)
beach in Newport.
Best Wishes to All!
a week ago
High Sierra webcam (it is snowing!)
beach in Newport.
Best Wishes to All!
Commoncog
Data is an Added Sense
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in...
4 months ago
A useful operating principle to sidestep the biggest misconception with becoming data driven in business.
Moneyness
Crypto adoption in America
Source: America Loves Crypto
You may have recently come across the America Loves Crypto...
a year ago
Source: America Loves Crypto
You may have recently come across the America Loves Crypto marketing campaign, sponsored by Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange. In an attempt to promote the voting power of crypto owners, the website makes the claim that 52 million...
Mazdak
X's Ad Business Faces Its Toughest Challenge Yet
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are...
a year ago
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are suspending ad spending on the platform. This comes in response to owner Elon Musk's endorsement of an antisemitic post, as well as to a report by Media Matters For America that...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
11 months ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
The Rational Walk
Stepping into the River
Just like no man steps into the same river twice, reading a worthwhile book multiple times continues...
2 months ago
Just like no man steps into the same river twice, reading a worthwhile book multiple times continues to yield new insights over the years.
Mazdak
Choosing the Optimal Legal Structure for Your Small Business 🇨🇦
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate...
11 months ago
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate legal framework can feel like traversing a complex maze. This guide sheds light on the merits and drawbacks of the three primary options: sole proprietorship, partnership, and...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2023: Setting the table!
In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each...
a year ago
In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the first of a series of posts that I make at the start of each year, where I look at data, both macro and company-level. In this post, I...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15...
2 weeks ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but close to housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate).
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted...
Mazdak
Unlock the Power of Persuasion: The 4-Part Key to Getting What You Want
Imagine having just one skill that could propel your business to unprecedented success.
2 months ago
Imagine having just one skill that could propel your business to unprecedented success.
Commoncog
Announcing the Commoncog Case Library Public Beta
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate...
over a year ago
We're testing a cognitive flexibility theory-driven learning library, designed to accelerate business expertise. Find out more.
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
a year ago
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
Moneyness
Coinbase: "What if we call them rewards instead of interest payments?"
Here's a question for you: which U.S. financial institutions are legally permitted to pay interest...
a year ago
Here's a question for you: which U.S. financial institutions are legally permitted to pay interest to retail customers?
We can get an answer by canvassing the range of entities currently offering interest-paying dollar accounts to U.S. retail customers. It pretty much boils...
balajis.com
Global Crypto Regulation: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not?
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a...
over a year ago
Global crypto regulation is confusing. So I surveyed the information available and created a heatmap.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #210
Disinflation vs. Deflation, Zooming Out, Warren Buffett's Apple Sales, Teens without Smartphones,...
4 months ago
Disinflation vs. Deflation, Zooming Out, Warren Buffett's Apple Sales, Teens without Smartphones, Adam Wright, Joel Greenblatt, Robert Kierlin, Bruce Berkowitz, Jeremy Grantham
The Rational Walk
The Digest #161
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy...
a year ago
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy band-aid; Plus insights from Todd Combs, Michael Burry, Joel Tillinghast, and Lee Ainslie.
Moneyness
Why my favorite coinage is Byzantine coinage
What do I like about Byzantine coinage?
Most people probably admire the Byzantine solidus, a gold...
10 months ago
What do I like about Byzantine coinage?
Most people probably admire the Byzantine solidus, a gold coin that maintained its weight and purity for over 600 years, which is quite remarkable for a coin. The solidus was exported all over the world, including to Europe, which lacked...
Citation Needed
Issue 64 – Pointing its arsenal at our friends
As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like...
4 months ago
As parts of the crypto industry scramble to court the Harris administration with events like “Crypto4Harris”, others insist it is Harris who must “bend the knee”.
Farnam Street
Reciprocity: Getting What You Give
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics,...
over a year ago
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics, Chemistry and Biology Reciprocity teaches us why win-win relationships are the way to go, why waiters leave candies with the bill, why it’s a good idea to use the least force possible...
The Rational Walk
The Thirty Second Mind
Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
11 months ago
Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #179
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI...
a year ago
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI colonoscopies, Advice on tipping, Alcohol and cardiovascular risks, Nicomachean ethics
Moneyness
Will the digital euro be like cash?
The European Union published its proposal for a digital euro late last month, which will be issued...
a year ago
The European Union published its proposal for a digital euro late last month, which will be issued by the European Central Bank (ECB) if it goes ahead. There's plenty to digest in the 62-page document, but the one area I want to focus on in this post is privacy.
Digital euros...
Moneyness
How PayPal can use stablecoins to avoid AML requirements and make big profits
There's a new financial loophole in town: stablecoins. Stablecoins are dollar, yen, or pound-based...
9 months ago
There's a new financial loophole in town: stablecoins. Stablecoins are dollar, yen, or pound-based payments platforms that are built using crypto database technology.
Financial institutions are always looking for loopholes to game the system. Typically this has meant avoiding...
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
a year ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
The Rational Walk
The Limits of an Inner Scorecard
Having an "inner scorecard" can be liberating and foster independent thinking, but ultimately human...
a year ago
Having an "inner scorecard" can be liberating and foster independent thinking, but ultimately human beings must also subject themselves to the judgment of key people in their lives.
Commoncog
Process Improvement is Trickier Than You Think
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because...
over a year ago
Most companies skimp on process improvement. But the surprising thing is that they do so not because they're bad or lazy — but because there are system dynamics that prevent them from doing so. We take a look at what those are.
Commoncog
Marvel Studios’s Origin Story
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of...
a year ago
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of superb capital expertise in action.
Commoncog
Learning About Moats the Hard Way
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end...
7 months ago
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end of his career.
Mazdak
More Creators Can Now Make Money on YouTube
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out...
a year ago
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out Vision for the Platform. YouTube Makes It Easier for Small Creators to Earn Money YouTube is lowering the eligibility requirements for creators to make money from their channels....
The Rational Walk
The Digest #200
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks,...
7 months ago
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks, Appnesia, Stress and heart disease, Steve Jobs, Flying Cars, Dunkirk, Napoleon
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked...
10 months ago
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked spectacularly well. Will Berkshire's playbook continue to perform well in the future?
Mazdak
What is QSBS?
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul...
a year ago
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul into your company, and you want to see it thrive. But taxes can eat into your profits, leaving you feeling frustrated and discouraged. That's where QSBS (Qualified Small Business...
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
9 months ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
balajis.com
The Network State Book
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
Mazdak
Meta's AI & Reuters: A New Era of News?
Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading...
2 months ago
Meta's AI is changing how we consume news. The tech giant has partnered with Reuters, a leading global news provider, to bring real-time news updates directly to users through Meta's AI chatbot.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #183
Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing,...
a year ago
Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing, Rivian, AI's morality, AI bubble?, How James Longstreet defied the South after the war
balajis.com
Decentralizing Education with Synthesis
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
over a year ago
I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
The Rational Walk
Insurance Loss Reserve Estimates
The ability to accurately estimate loss reserves is a core competency for any well-run insurance...
a year ago
The ability to accurately estimate loss reserves is a core competency for any well-run insurance company. Progressive provides a useful case study in loss reserving practices.
Commoncog
Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do...
11 months ago
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do it. This is everything you need to know to actually become data driven, from scratch, using the same first principles that Amazon, Koch, and Toyota used back in their day.
balajis.com
The Men's Party
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
11 months ago
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
Calculated Risk
December 13th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm...
3 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.
Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Diff
Where do AI Agents Get Deployed First?
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
a month ago
Plus! IP; Bull Markets; Run on the Fund; Moderating Moderation; Paraphrasing Bundling
FIRE v London
Becoming an ISA $millionaire
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until...
a year ago
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until using my full annual ISA allowance(s), which took me much longer than usual last year. This year I actually completed my ISA topups in April, within a few weeks of the start of the...
The Rational Walk
Dollar General: Value or Value Trap?
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some...
a year ago
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some initial thoughts about the company as well as the overall retail landscape.
Bits about Money
Payroll providers, Power, Respect
Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is...
a year ago
Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is complicated.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope
Last week...
2 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope
Last week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. In fact, on a few...
Moneyness
Are flatcoins a good idea?
I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea.
The idea for flatcoins has...
a year ago
I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea.
The idea for flatcoins has been around for a while, but it got a wider airing when it popped up in a Coinbase marketing piece from earlier this year. Now, arch-crypto hater Nouriel Roubini has undergone a...
Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in...
6 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales
A brief excerpt:
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
Commoncog
Understand the Shape of the Game You're Playing
What it looks like when you come up with a diagnosis for your business, a thing that is necessary...
a year ago
What it looks like when you come up with a diagnosis for your business, a thing that is necessary for strategy.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #209
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
4 months ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
Mazdak
Used Car Prices Drop: Should You Buy Now or Wait for Better Deals?
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has...
a year ago
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has begun to exhibit signs of a significant shift. Prices are now decelerating, presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers. This article delves into the key factors driving...
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
3 days ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year
A brief excerpt:
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.56% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
Mazdak
Big Tech Donating to Trump's Inaugural Fund, Teens' Online Habits, More Tech Updates
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on...
3 weeks ago
Amazon is reportedly donating $1M to Trump’s inaugural fund and will stream the inauguration on Prime Video 😀
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