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Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger...
2 months ago
24
2 months ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales Fannie and Freddie: Single...
Citation Needed
Issue 58 – Threats to the stability and integrity of Ethereum The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's...
9 months ago
140
9 months ago
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's creditors, and Biden threatens a crypto veto.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Linear Algebra This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life....
10 months ago
101
10 months ago
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my previous posts first to gain a solid understanding on how to model dynamic systems. This post focuses on how linear algebra is employed in modeling dynamic...
Mazdak
The Rise of Nvidia and the Fall of Intel For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its...
4 months ago
42
4 months ago
For 25 years, Intel held a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a testament to its influence in the tech world.
Bits about Money
Credit cards as a legacy system Credit cards have been in use for almost 75 years. Some long-ago decisions still cause consequences...
over a year ago
20
over a year ago
Credit cards have been in use for almost 75 years. Some long-ago decisions still cause consequences in the present day. But change is possible.
Calculated Risk
January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a month ago
193
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
The Rational Walk
The Use of Letters As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It...
a year ago
21
a year ago
As Mark Twain said, a person who won't read has no real advantage over a person who can't read. It makes no sense to refuse to learn vicariously.
Calculated Risk
Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts... Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
The Rational Walk
Initial Public Offerings A company that is in the process of selling shares to the public for the first time must navigate a...
a year ago
22
a year ago
A company that is in the process of selling shares to the public for the first time must navigate a minefield of competing interests.
Commoncog
The Skill of Capital What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk...
a year ago
127
a year ago
What, exactly, is the skill of capital? What does it consist of? How do you recognise it? We walk through three stories, and then talk about the shape of the skill in practice.
Mazdak
RRSP Guide for New Immigrants to Canada: Everything You Need to Know As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the...
3 months ago
29
3 months ago
As a newcomer to Canada, one of the most important financial tools you'll encounter is the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP).
The Rational Walk
The Digest #178 Berkshire countersues Pilot's founders, Meta targeting teens, Title Insurance, Moats & capital...
a year ago
45
a year ago
Berkshire countersues Pilot's founders, Meta targeting teens, Title Insurance, Moats & capital allocation, CAVA's origin, VISA's history, Business lessons from Tom Murphy
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances...
4 days ago
3
4 days ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While As the table shows, Federal Reserve net income was substantially negative in 2023 and 2024, with a combined net loss in these two years of almost $200...
Mazdak
Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones...
a year ago
73
a year ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones of Canadian financial planning. Both offer distinct advantages for saving and investing, but exceeding their annual contribution limits can lead to unwanted financial consequences.
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
a week ago
6
a week ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage...
Bits about Money
Payroll providers, Power, Respect Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is...
a year ago
Calculated Risk
PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.5% YoY in January Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE...
a week ago
3
a week ago
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through January 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.4% year-over-year in January, down from 4.6% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March...
The Rational Walk
Concentrated Investments Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the...
a year ago
44
a year ago
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the company. What are the risks of concentrated investments in general and Berkshire in particular?
The Rational Walk
The Digest #185 Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at...
a year ago
56
a year ago
Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at Alibaba's IPO, Chris Davis, Outsider CEOs, Shareholder activists, Oprah
The Rational Walk
A Very Strange Public Offering The story of the initial offering of Berkshire Hathaway's Class B stock is an excellent example of...
a year ago
28
a year ago
The story of the initial offering of Berkshire Hathaway's Class B stock is an excellent example of Warren Buffett's unconventional approach toward his business partners.
FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
11 months ago
104
11 months ago
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
Mazdak
Canadian Real Estate Market Predictions for 2024 As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for...
a year ago
36
a year ago
As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for investors. While the explosive growth of recent years is likely to abate, a multitude of factors will continue to shape the market's trajectory. Understanding these factors is crucial for...
Commoncog
Running a Fine Dining Restaurant in a Recession How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about...
7 months ago
76
7 months ago
How Eleven Madison Park survived the 2008 Global Recession ... and what this tells us about operating through the capital cycle.
Mazdak
Meta's Shifting Approach to Politics and Content Moderation Meta is backtracking on its political content policy.
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.3% Range From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to 3.0% q/q saar. Additionally, our 4Q US GDP tracker was unchanged at 2.1% q/q saar. [Dec 13th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final...
Commoncog
Power and Asian Business The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule...
2 months ago
65
2 months ago
The culmination of the Power in Business mini series. What it’s like doing business without the Rule of Law.
Citation Needed
Issue 43 – Laser eyes Two crypto firms emerge from bankruptcy, and a Bored Ape party turns out even worse than it sounds.
a year ago
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
a year ago
87
a year ago
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment...
4 weeks ago
11
4 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 170,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for...
Calculated Risk
February 21st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 weeks ago
8
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Commoncog
Marvel Studios’s Origin Story The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of...
a year ago
59
a year ago
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of superb capital expertise in action.
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Types, Ellison, AI, YouTube, Private Credit, Globalization, Lending, Huawei
a week ago
The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
a year ago
71
a year ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
Moneyness
Tornado Cash un-OFAC'ed The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado...
3 months ago
3
3 months ago
The next chapter in the Tornado Cash saga just dropped. Last week a court ruled last that Tornado Cash, a bot that can be used for obfuscating crypto, is safe from being sanctioned. I first wrote about Tornado Cash in 2021, before its legal troubles began, warning of the risks...
The Diff
The New National Champions Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile;...
a month ago
17
a month ago
Plus! Open Source AI; Meme Private Credit; Alpha Generators as an Asset Class; Going Hostile; Defense
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 12, 2024 The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts. ----- Monday, January...
a month ago
32
a month ago
The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts. ----- Monday, January 13th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, January 14th ----- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December. Producer Price Index for December...
balajis.com
Decentralizing Education with Synthesis I'm co-leading a round in Synthesis, a startup scaling the custom school built for Elon Musk’s kids.
over a year ago
Mazdak
Google's Ad Business Under Fire in Europe Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces...
a year ago
28
a year ago
Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe. Microsoft and OpenAI: A Partnership in Turmoil. Google Faces Antitrust Probe in Europe The European Commission has made a formal antitrust complaint against Google and its ad business. In a preliminary opinion, the regulator says Google has...
oftwominds-Charles...
AI Is a Digital Parrot: Word-Traps, False Logic and the Illusion of Intelligence Word traps and false logic don't lead to dominance of the future or monopolistic grips on limitless...
a month ago
6
a month ago
Word traps and false logic don't lead to dominance of the future or monopolistic grips on limitless profits. The heart of the current euphoric expectations for AI is a simple but problematic proposition: the equivalence of function equals intelligence. If using natural...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in November were below expectations, however, starts in September and October were revised up slightly, combined. Total...
Commoncog
Creating New Drills for Deliberate Practice A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a...
a year ago
87
a year ago
A lesson from a four month accelerated expertise experiment. Or: why creating new drills for a deliberate practice training program isn't as difficult as you might think.
Commoncog
What is Power? Understanding how power works in business is necessary to understanding business in developing...
3 months ago
55
3 months ago
Understanding how power works in business is necessary to understanding business in developing markets. A members-only mini series.
The Rational Walk
Thoughts on Israel’s 9/11 On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered a terrorist attack that took an estimated 1,200 lives, the vast...
a year ago
25
a year ago
On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered a terrorist attack that took an estimated 1,200 lives, the vast majority of whom were civilians.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Culture in 2050 By mid-century, changes in Berkshire Hathaway's voting control could make a breakup of the...
2 weeks ago
Mazdak
More Creators Can Now Make Money on YouTube YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out...
a year ago
22
a year ago
YouTube Lowers Monetization Requirements for Creators. New Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino Sets Out Vision for the Platform. YouTube Makes It Easier for Small Creators to Earn Money YouTube is lowering the eligibility requirements for creators to make money from their channels....
The Rational Walk
Herodotus Herodotus is often described as the father of history for his narrative of the Greco-Persian Wars of...
7 months ago
52
7 months ago
Herodotus is often described as the father of history for his narrative of the Greco-Persian Wars of the fifth century BC.
Calculated Risk
Ten Economic Questions for 2025 Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. I'll follow up with some thoughts on each...
2 months ago
29
2 months ago
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions. We can assume the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will be extended.  That larger tariffs will be imposed on some imports, and there will be some...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #206 The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of...
8 months ago
106
8 months ago
The Trust Deficit, EU Regulations, Medicare Advantage scams, Munger soldiered on, The cult of Silicon Valley, Self-esteem and outer scorecards, MMT's founder is worried about deficits
Mazdak
A Brighter Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024? The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples...
a year ago
78
a year ago
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples through the housing market, sparking both excitement and cautious optimism among prospective buyers and existing homeowners alike. While the prospect of lower mortgage rates is...
Commoncog
Dell's Capital Expertise We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at...
a year ago
97
a year ago
We trace Michael Dell's skill at the art of capital in business, and use it to examine how skill at capital allows you to make moves that aren't available to a novice business operator.
Seeking Wisdom
Case for indexing Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In...
over a year ago
23
over a year ago
Warren Buffet made a compelling case in favor of indexing in the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM. In 1989, 65% of the top 20 global companies were domiciled in Japan. After three decades, 65% of the top 20 global companies are from the US. No companies from Japan made into the top...
Citation Needed
Become a Wikipedian in 30 minutes What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be...
a year ago
125
a year ago
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be proliferating on the web? The number one thing you can do is learn to edit, and I will walk you through how to get started in only 30 minutes.
Bits about Money
Why the CrowdStrike bug hit banks hard Regulation-induced monocultures meet unfortunate but explicable engineering decisions.
7 months ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
a month ago
29
a month ago
Skyscrapers, AI, Congestion Pricing, The Odyssey, History, Markets, Accounting, Loneliness, Slavery
balajis.com
No Cap Fed-killed banks took $100B+ from BTFP to stay afloat, but who's counting?
a year ago
FIRE v London
May ’24: UK election called The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick....
8 months ago
102
8 months ago
The month of May seems a little while ago, so I’d better get on and write it up. This will be quick. The big news in the UK was Rishi Sunak, the outgoing PM, calling a general election for 4 July. Independence-from-the-Tories Day. May was also the month that u-turner/blowharder...
Calculated Risk
Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate...
a week ago
5
a week ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. The previous three months were...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week...
Moneyness
Here’s why we tolerate fake check scams Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad...
a month ago
5
a month ago
Source: Better Business Bureau The daily news is filled with personal stories about bad experiences with banks. Here’s a recent example. In November 2024, a charity inadvertently accepted a fake check from a would-be donor. The charity's bank allowed the charity to deposit...
Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in November Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP)...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) moved down 0.1 percent in November after declining 0.4 percent in October. In November, manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent, boosted by a 3.5 percent increase in the index for motor...
Calculated Risk
Question #5 for 2025: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales,...
a month ago
15
a month ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales, December Personal Income and Outlays and November Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, January 27th ----- 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is...
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Homebuider Survey Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly...
a month ago
24
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 215 thousand from 201 thousand last week. Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released.  The...
Moneyness
Ending the penny won't lead to more nickels Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing the penny because it is unprofitable,...
2 weeks ago
14
2 weeks ago
Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing the penny because it is unprofitable, costing 3.69 cents to produce each one. In response, the lobbyists that earn big profits from the ongoing existence of the penny have come out in full force with dubious arguments for...
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
11 months ago
102
11 months ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
The Rational Walk
Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023) A life well lived
a year ago
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
11 months ago
99
11 months ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Mazdak
Bybit’s $5.5 Billion Bank Run: A Turning Point for Crypto Security? In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, security is paramount.
a week ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #202 George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter...
9 months ago
51
9 months ago
George Washington on debt, Superinvestors of micro-caps, BYD, OXY/BHE joint venture, Imposter syndrome, Decline of higher education, Howard Schultz, Cathie Wood, Robert Hagstrom
Calculated Risk
Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will...
Mazdak
Understanding Family Trusts in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide What is a Family Trust?
3 months ago
Mazdak
Anthropic's AI Breakthrough & Boeing's Q3 Disaster Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases...
4 months ago
24
4 months ago
Boeing's Q3 earnings report reveals a massive loss, while Anthropic's Claude AI showcases mind-blowing new capabilities.
Mazdak
Google's AI Search Tool: A Traffic Nightmare for Publishers? AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
a year ago
Mazdak
Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket? The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the...
a year ago
77
a year ago
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the dream of homeownership into a distant mirage for many Canadians. But before you resign yourself to renting forever, consider this: owning a home may not be the guaranteed...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s Uncertain Future Warren Buffett's concerns about the regulatory climate for the utility industry has negative...
11 months ago
41
11 months ago
Warren Buffett's concerns about the regulatory climate for the utility industry has negative implications for PacifiCorp and BHE's other subsidiaries.
Citation Needed
Big publishers think libraries are the enemy The recent Second Circuit decision in Hachette v. Internet Archive is only the latest battle in the...
5 months ago
58
5 months ago
The recent Second Circuit decision in Hachette v. Internet Archive is only the latest battle in the war on libraries and the freedom to read.
Calculated Risk
Friday: No major economic releases scheduled Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • No...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • No major economic releases scheduled.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Durable Goods, Case-Shiller House Prices From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Only Moderately Lower After Tech...
a month ago
13
a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Only Moderately Lower After Tech Rout Even though there is some uncertainty about the near-term Fed rate outlook and even though we have a Fed meeting coming up on Wednesday, today was all about conventional wisdom for...
FIRE v London
Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an...
a year ago
105
a year ago
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an impulse while travelling back from the Coastal Folly. My main frame of reference to the cathedral being those notorious Russian nerve agent assassins citing it as their reason for...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #167 TIPS for Retirement, BYD vs. Tesla, Katalin Karikó's vindication, Teledyne, Helzberg Diamonds,...
a year ago
31
a year ago
TIPS for Retirement, BYD vs. Tesla, Katalin Karikó's vindication, Teledyne, Helzberg Diamonds, Interviews of Marc Andreessen and Shane Parrish, David Senra's review of Jimmy Buffett's autobiography
The Diff
Two Models of Forward-Deployed Engineers Plus! Corporate VC; The New AI Model; The New AI Model, Continued; The Long But Volatile March;...
a month ago
Mazdak
What is QSBS? As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul...
a year ago
45
a year ago
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul into your company, and you want to see it thrive. But taxes can eat into your profits, leaving you feeling frustrated and discouraged. That's where QSBS (Qualified Small Business...
Bits about Money
BAM is now reader-supported Bits about Money now offers paid memberships. (Plus, a bonus essay on newsletter financial...
over a year ago
21
over a year ago
Bits about Money now offers paid memberships. (Plus, a bonus essay on newsletter financial infrastructure.)
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Education, Auto Theft, Optimizers, AI, Energy, Financial Engineering, Deep Research
2 weeks ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #174 Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions,...
a year ago
42
a year ago
Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions, The AI Gold Rush, 100th anniversary of Hitler's beer hall putsch, The Federalist Papers
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 23rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.2% Week-over-week, Up 26.3% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week.  Inventory is now...
2 months ago
29
2 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week.  Inventory is now 9.7% below the peak for the year (9 weeks ago). Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in January or February. The first graph...
The Diff
Just Another Risk Asset Plus! SPVs; The Global Advantage; Cachet; GLP-1 Friendliness; Integrations
2 months ago
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 7.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 January The U.S. hotel industry reported negative...
a month ago
27
a month ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 January The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 11 January. ... 5-11 January 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): Occupancy: 49.2%...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #209 Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation...
7 months ago
78
7 months ago
Berkshire's conservatism, Weschler's IRA, National Indemnity, A Defense of Andrew Left, Inflation hammers the poor, Felony convictions as footnotes, Immanuel Nobel, Eisenhower and D-Day
Mazdak
Unlock the Power of Persuasion: The 4-Part Key to Getting What You Want Imagine having just one skill that could propel your business to unprecedented success.
4 months ago
balajis.com
#4 - The Winklevoss Twins and Balaji Listen now (50 min) | Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss talk with Balaji about how Washington, DC is...
a year ago
22
a year ago
Listen now (50 min) | Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss talk with Balaji about how Washington, DC is losing crypto, while other countries like the UAE and Japan are winning web3. OUTLINE 0:00 - I'm 6'5", 220, and there's two of me! 0:58 - Crypto flippening from America to Asia
Mazdak
Elon Musk Lashes Out at Advertisers Leaving X ⚡️ Musk's Fiery Response to Advertiser Exodus 💥 "Go Fk Yourself," Musk Says to Advertisers** 🚀 X...
a year ago
37
a year ago
⚡️ Musk's Fiery Response to Advertiser Exodus 💥 "Go Fk Yourself," Musk Says to Advertisers** 🚀 X CEO Defiant Amidst Advertising Boycott In a fiery exchange at the 2023 DealBook Summit in New York, Elon Musk unleashed a barrage of profanity at advertisers who have pulled their...
Calculated Risk
Q3 GDP Growth Revised up to 3.1% Annual Rate From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP...
2 months ago
24
2 months ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2024 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the "third" estimate...
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual...
a month ago
24
a month ago
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,499,000. This is 15.8 percent above the revised November estimate of 1,294,000, but is 4.4 percent below the December 2023 rate of 1,568,000. Single-family housing starts...
Calculated Risk
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 6.7% Year-over-year From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar...
a month ago
11
a month ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 January On the positive side of the MLK Day calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 18 January. ... 12-18 January 2025 (percentage change from...
Calculated Risk
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious...
a month ago
10
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in December was 0.59%, up from 0.56% November. Freddie's rate is up...
Calculated Risk
Housing Feb 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.9% Week-over-week, Up 29.2% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.9% week-over-week. Inventory always...
2 weeks ago
13
2 weeks ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.9% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.2% from the bottom five weeks ago in January. The first graph shows the seasonal...
balajis.com
#3 - The President of Palau Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is...
over a year ago
24
over a year ago
Listen now (51 min) | The President of Palau and Balaji discuss how the tiny island country is becoming a digital leader, experimenting with everything from on-chain identity to drone delivery. Despite having less than 20,000 citizens, Palau is a full UN member state. Its path to...
Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Increased 0.4% in December On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and...
a month ago
16
a month ago
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from December 2023. report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and...
The Rational Walk
Warren Buffett’s Evolving Estate Plan Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new...
8 months ago
65
8 months ago
Warren Buffett has revised his will to leave his remaining assets at the time of his death to a new charitable trust run by his children.
The Rational Walk
Costco’s Director Compensation Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a...
a year ago
62
a year ago
Charlie Munger's service on Costco's board makes the retailer's director compensation approach a potential model for Berkshire Hathaway in the future.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Acquires BHE Minority Interests Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and...
5 months ago
45
5 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway has acquired the remaining minority interests in BHE from the Scott family and now is the sole owner of the energy company.
Mazdak
How to Start a Cleaning Company Without Cleaning The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion...
a year ago
22
a year ago
The cleaning industry is a booming one, with the global market size expected to reach $690 billion by 2026. This growth is being driven by a number of factors, including the increasing number of dual-income households, the growing popularity of Airbnb, and the rising demand for...
Calculated Risk
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market;...
a month ago
23
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts...
The Diff
Who is Levered to Extreme, but not History-Ending, Growth? Plus! Bond; Capitalizing Nvidia's Strategy; Creator Funds; Adjusted EBITDA; Shortages and Gluts
2 weeks ago
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Paradigms, AI, Pentium, Netflix, China, SBF
2 months ago
Citation Needed
New York Times: Crypto's fragile foundations My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency...
a year ago
37
a year ago
My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency industry that can lead to death spirals like the one at FTX.
Calculated Risk
Friday: Existing Home Sales Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home...
2 weeks ago
7
2 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.17 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: FOMC Statement Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
a month ago
16
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
Calculated Risk
Thursday: Unemployment Claims Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates...
2 months ago
34
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday). initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were at 220 thousand last week.
Calculated Risk
Update: Lumber Prices Up 6% YoY This might be something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL...
a month ago
12
a month ago
This might be something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August...
Calculated Risk
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
23
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Commoncog
Outcome Orientation as a Cure for Information Overload A simple, effective — though not easy! — technique for solving information overload. Written from...
2 weeks ago
Musings on Markets
The Corporate Life Cycle: Managing, Valuation and Investing Implications! As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children...
6 months ago
3
6 months ago
As I reveal my ignorance about TikTok trends, social media celebrities and Gen Z slang, my children are quick to point out my age, and I accept that reality, for the most part. I understand that I am too old to exercise without stretching first or eat a heaping plate of cheese...
Calculated Risk
February 28th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
a week ago
5
a week ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC...
a month ago
12
a month ago
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the...
Calculated Risk
February 7th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
4 weeks ago
12
4 weeks ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 5.5% in December; Down 5.0% Year-over-year From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Fell 5.5% in December Pending home sales retracted 5.5% in December...
a month ago
13
a month ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Fell 5.5% in December Pending home sales retracted 5.5% in December – following four consecutive months of increases – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions experienced month-over-month losses in transactions,...
oftwominds-Charles...
The AI Fad Just Burned to the Waterline Sometimes wide moats and billions of dollars to blow lead not to glory but to hubris, which beckons...
a month ago
6
a month ago
Sometimes wide moats and billions of dollars to blow lead not to glory but to hubris, which beckons Nemesis. While everyone was busy reassuring themselves the stock market was still A-OK, the driver of the market--the AI fad--just burned to the waterline. Yes, the current...
Calculated Risk
December 13th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
2 months ago
18
2 months ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 months ago
29
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales tomorrow, Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96...
Mazdak
The Dangers of AI "Answers" From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring...
3 months ago
43
3 months ago
From fake presidential pardons to AI-generated movie reviews, artificial intelligence is blurring the lines between fact and fiction.
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Job Openings From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Flat Despite Underlying Market...
a month ago
12
a month ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stay Flat Despite Underlying Market Volatility We know that mortgage rates are driven by financial markets and we know that financial markets have experienced volatility amid the roll-out of new tariffs over the weekend....
The Rational Walk
The Digest #160 Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan,...
a year ago
27
a year ago
Steve Jobs in his own words, Risk free rates, Saving for a home, Buffett's investments in Japan, Flawed memories, Podcast interviews with Rudy Havenstein, Doomberg, Paul Graham, and Guy Spier.
Calculated Risk
Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in...
2 months ago
24
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High A brief excerpt: From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock, Office’s Vacancy Rate Broke Another...
Mazdak
YouTube’s AI Evolution: What’s Coming in 2025? YouTube is gearing up for a massive AI-driven transformation.
3 weeks ago
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
a year ago
108
a year ago
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
Citation Needed
Issue 67 – Bug out bitcoin Crypto resurfaces on the campaign trail and the FTX fallout continues to unfold. Also, merch!
5 months ago
Calculated Risk
FOMC Preview: No Change to Policy Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at...
a month ago
18
a month ago
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to be on hold at the January, March and May meetings, with the next rate cut in May. From BofA: We...
Calculated Risk
Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025? Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase...
2 months ago
29
2 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025? Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices,...
FIRE v London
Sep 23: Antisocial markets For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK,...
a year ago
82
a year ago
For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19...
Bits about Money
The infrastructure behind ATMs ATMs are connected to banks by networks which operate little-understood payment rails.
over a year ago
Calculated Risk
December Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.7 million SAAR, Up 5% YoY From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on...
2 months ago
29
2 months ago
From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on Inventory (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Improved affordability is the main thrust to the end-of-year improvement in demand, with higher consumer confidence also likely a...
Calculated Risk
BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in December; Core CPI increased 0.2% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a...
a month ago
16
a month ago
From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, after rising 0.3 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index...
Calculated Risk
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in January The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger...
3 weeks ago
9
3 weeks ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. Click on graph for larger image. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.6% (down from 3.7% YoY in December), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (down from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose...
Mazdak
Block, TikTok & Beyond From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping...
3 months ago
47
3 months ago
From Block's latest moves to TikTok's impact on the music industry, we explore the trends shaping our digital world.
Citation Needed
Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage...
Calculated Risk
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market;...
3 weeks ago
10
3 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-February provides a snapshot of the current housing market. tells the tale! I’m watching...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread VC, Personal Finance, Careers, Hedge Funds, Hiring, Investing, Coase, Gates
3 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are...
a month ago
35
a month ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are unchanged and DOW futures are up 68 (fair value). WTI futures at $76.57 per barrel and Brent at $79.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $73, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil...
The Rational Walk
The Other Side of the Trade Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other...
9 months ago
89
9 months ago
Reflections on trying to profit from the technical problems that caused Berkshire Hathaway and other stocks to temporarily crash on June 3, 2024.
Calculated Risk
Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Beige Book Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage...
3 days ago
2
3 days ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 140,000 payroll jobs added in February,...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #215 Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking...
5 months ago
71
5 months ago
Ajit Jain's Berkshire sales, Dollar Stores, Jobs vs Cook on Innovation, Robert Caro, Fact checking Kamala Harris, Weaponizing political anger, Nick Sleep's letters, Howard Marks on risk
The Rational Walk
My Years with General Motors General Motors, under the leadership of Alfred P. Sloan, capitalized on the mistakes of Henry Ford...
a year ago
22
a year ago
General Motors, under the leadership of Alfred P. Sloan, capitalized on the mistakes of Henry Ford in the 1920s to become the dominant American automaker.
FIRE v London
May ’23: Magic megatech May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had...
a year ago
61
a year ago
May has been election month. In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected. And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking...
Mazdak
The Ultimate Small Business Hiring Guide How to Find the Right Fit for Your Team
4 months ago
balajis.com
The Network State Book A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
17
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
Calculated Risk
Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen Here is a YouTube video of a discussion with Mike Simonsen. Enjoy.
a month ago
The Diff
General-Purpose Technologies Revalue Natural Resources Plus! Meme Coins; Fees; Platforms; Opportunistic Offers; Private Accounting Fraud
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs? Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500...
Calculated Risk
Friday: Employment Report Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier...
a month ago
29
a month ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index...
Citation Needed
Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried...
a year ago
88
a year ago
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried doesn't want to go to jail for 100 years.
Molson Hart's Blog -...
What Do Brontosauruses Know about Uncoordinated Conspiracies? Brontosaurus skeleton at the Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History (allegedly) Let’s pretend for a...
6 months ago
5
6 months ago
Brontosaurus skeleton at the Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History (allegedly) Let’s pretend for a moment that brontosauruses are made up, despite them being accepted by the public and scientific community, having ample evidence for their existence, and appearing in museums all...
Farnam Street
Learning Through Play Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind...
over a year ago
70
over a year ago
Play is an essential way of learning about the world. Doing things we enjoy without a goal in mind leads us to find new information, better understand our own capabilities, and find unexpected beauty around us. Arithmetic is one example of an area we can explore through play....
Mazdak
Canadian Mortgage Debt Growth Slows to Two-Decade Low, But Remains Elevated Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to...
a year ago
37
a year ago
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to data from the Bank of Canada (BoC). However, mortgage debt growth remains historically high, despite the recent slowdown. The BoC's latest data shows that outstanding mortgage...
Commoncog
What’s an Operational Definition Anyway? Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most...
a year ago
61
a year ago
Two principles on collecting data, from the field of Statistical Process Control. As with most principles in SPC, this is both simpler and more important than you might think.
Mazdak
Regulating Crypto Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end...
3 months ago
46
3 months ago
Eighteen states are suing the SEC over Biden's crypto crackdown. Is this the beginning of the end for crypto, or a necessary step towards mainstream adoption?
Mazdak
In the AI Race: Embrace Commoditization, Focus on Customer Value The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for...
a year ago
44
a year ago
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for attention and a slice of the market pie. In this competitive environment, it's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of proprietary components and cutting-edge algorithms,...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
2 weeks ago
9
2 weeks ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 14,...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2025: The Party Continued (for US Equities) In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years,...
a month ago
6
a month ago
In my last post, I noted that the US has extended its dominance of global equities in recent years, increasing its share of market capitalization from 42% in at the start of 2023 to 44% at the start of 2024 to 49% at the start of 2025. That rise was driven by a surge in US equity...
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus,...
8 months ago
69
8 months ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the second quarter of 2024, including Aeschylus, Herodotus, the Odyssey, and American Scripture.
Calculated Risk
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December,...
a month ago
67
a month ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and slipped in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales accelerated in all four...
Commoncog
The 2024 Commoncog Recap Everything that we covered in 2024, and what to expect in the coming year.
a month ago
The Rational Walk
The Limits of the 25th Amendment The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe...
8 months ago
78
8 months ago
The 25th Amendment is intended to clarify Presidential succession procedures, but it has severe limits that should be acknowledged.
Calculated Risk
Comments on January Employment Report The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November...
4 weeks ago
11
4 weeks ago
The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to...
Mazdak
DOJ Breaks Up Google, Elden Ring Sold, and Windows Goes Meta The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will...
3 months ago
39
3 months ago
The DOJ is swinging a massive hammer at Google, potentially forcing them to sell off Chrome - will the internet ever be the same?
Calculated Risk
Benchmarking the U.S. economy Presidents receive too much credit and blame for the economy! Benchmarking the U.S. economy that...
a month ago
22
a month ago
Presidents receive too much credit and blame for the economy! Benchmarking the U.S. economy that President Donald Trump is set to inherit • While the U.S. economy still has challenges, especially lingering inflation and poor consumer sentiment, many important economic metrics...
Calculated Risk
Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New...
3 weeks ago
11
3 weeks ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New Week Mortgage rates have been on a vacation from volatility since January 16th when they fell back toward 7% after hitting the highest levels since May 2024. Top tier 30yr fixed rates...
Calculated Risk
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 223,000 The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 6,000 from the...
a month ago
17
a month ago
The DOL reported: seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,500, an increase of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 212,750. emphasis added The...
The Diff
Longreads + Open Thread Hackers, Safety, EBITDA, More Hackers, Feudalism, Randomness, CEOs
a week ago
Mazdak
OpenAI’s Ph.D.-Level Super Agents The AI landscape is evolving at breakneck speed, and OpenAI is leading the charge.
a month ago
The Diff
Filling Out Forms is Corvée Labor Plus! The Real News Business; Credit, Wealth, and Risk-Adjusted Returns; Less-Than-Truckload; Capex;...
a week ago
7
a week ago
Plus! The Real News Business; Credit, Wealth, and Risk-Adjusted Returns; Less-Than-Truckload; Capex; Bundling and Scale; Diff Jobs
Calculated Risk
March 7th COVID Update: COVID Deaths Declining Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm...
7 hours ago
1
7 hours ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report...
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly...
4 weeks ago
12
4 weeks ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2024 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential...
Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in...
a month ago
26
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not...
Calculated Risk
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a...
3 days ago
2
3 days ago
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Brief excerpt: Property Insurance Premiums Increased Sharply in 2024 • The average annual property insurance premium among mortgaged single-family homes rose by a...
Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
9 months ago
99
9 months ago
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
Calculated Risk
1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006 Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024...
a month ago
22
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006 A brief excerpt: Although total housing starts decreased 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023, completions increased sharply...
Citation Needed
Issue 51 – It's quiet... too quiet It's been a quiet few weeks in the world of crypto disasters... too quiet.
a year ago
Farnam Street
Reciprocity: Getting What You Give This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics,...
over a year ago
72
over a year ago
This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics, Chemistry and Biology Reciprocity teaches us why win-win relationships are the way to go, why waiters leave candies with the bill, why it’s a good idea to use the least force possible...
Mazdak
OpenAI's Meltdown: A Fight for the Future of AI The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching...
a year ago
41
a year ago
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching implications for the future of artificial intelligence (AI). OpenAI, known for its groundbreaking ChatGPT technology, is considered a frontrunner in the AI race, and its fate could...
Calculated Risk
February Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR, Up 1.5% YoY From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay...
a week ago
5
a week ago
From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay content).  Brief excerpt: Sales are recording solid gains, but production slowdowns capping dealer stock in a growth market – a market that ostensibly still is climbing out of the...
The Diff
Good Accounting is a Positive Externality Plus! Crossovers; Politics: Back on Meta; Structure; Gradual Tariffs; Property Rights
a month ago
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home...
a month ago
12
a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022...
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Why We Shouldn’t “Buy the Dip” “Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the...
a year ago
3
a year ago
“Buying the dip” is buy stocks whenever there is a short-term decline in stock prices, under the assumption that asset prices will quickly revert, enabling you to make money. This article explains why a government-driven culture of “buying the dip” can be damaging to you and...
Citation Needed
Issue 70 – The Cryptocurrency States of America Crypto’s efforts to buy the 2024 elections paid off, and we’re in for a bumpy ride.
3 months ago
Citation Needed
When did cryptocurrency policy become a voter issue? I don’t believe that it has.
7 months ago
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried: guilty on all charges Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
a year ago
Mazdak
Meta's Oakley Smart Glasses, TikTok's Revenue Nearly Doubled YouTube's Last Year, Hidden Hashtags on... “What if Elon Musk or Larry Ellison bought TikTok?”
a month ago
Calculated Risk
LA Ports: Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in November Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and...
2 months ago
24
2 months ago
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units...
The Diff
Economic Lessons from the Last Few Singularities Plus! Conflicts and Confluence; Bonds; Empire Building; China; The Capital and Talent Cycle
2 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #161 Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy...
a year ago
31
a year ago
Feynman on knowledge, TransDigm's controversial business model, Costco's history, The Ozempic/Wegovy band-aid; Plus insights from Todd Combs, Michael Burry, Joel Tillinghast, and Lee Ainslie.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #205 Books I read in Q2, Buffett's estate plan, The magic of compounding, How to read a book, Portfolio...
8 months ago
56
8 months ago
Books I read in Q2, Buffett's estate plan, The magic of compounding, How to read a book, Portfolio rebalancing, Ben Graham in 1955, Sam Walton, LBJ, Robert Moses, The origins of language
Mazdak
RRSP vs TFSA: Making the Right Choice for Your Financial Future Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful...
4 months ago
36
4 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are two powerful investment vehicles available to Canadians.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a month ago
22
a month ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 17,...
Calculated Risk
December Employment Preview On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is...
a month ago
25
a month ago
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. From Goldman Sachs: We expect a below-consensus 125k increase in payrolls (vs. +160k consensus) in...
Mazdak
Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀
a year ago
FIRE v London
I’m 28, and can’t figure out how to start on FatFIRE – what would you do in my shoes? From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from...
8 months ago
100
8 months ago
From: TazTo: FvL Hi FvL I’ve read your blog on and off for the past year or three. I graduated from the London School of Economics in 2017 after which I went through the hardest few years of my life mentally and ended up unemployed or in dead-end low paid jobs. I currently work...
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 The key reports this week are January Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, February...
2 weeks ago
10
2 weeks ago
The key reports this week are January Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, February 17th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of Washington's Birthday. ----- Tuesday, February 18th ----- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey...
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of...
a week ago
5
a week ago
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries “The Fed’s balance sheet runoff increases the supply of Treasuries. It’s easier for me to extend duration when I’m not competing with another big seller.” This statement...
Commoncog
When Action Beats Prediction One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ......
a year ago
143
a year ago
One of the great paradoxes of business is that management is prediction, but entrepreneurship ... isn't. What a theory of expertise in entrepreneurship tells us about creating new things in business.
Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP Tracking: around 2.4% From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter...
2 months ago
25
2 months ago
From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3%. [Jan 2nd estimate] emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth...
Commoncog
Making Sense of Deming A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of...
11 months ago
98
11 months ago
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of the most powerful things you'll find on the Operations side of the business expertise triad. Read this, so you don't have to read multiple books to apply his ideas.
The Rational Walk
Prometheus Bound This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus...
9 months ago
93
9 months ago
This article presents a discussion of "Prometheus Bound", a play by the Greek Tragedian Aeschylus dating back to the fifth century BC.
Calculated Risk
January Vehicle Forecast: Sales Decline to 15.6 million SAAR, Up 4% YoY From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay...
a month ago
15
a month ago
From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay content).  Brief excerpt: While demand in the middle of the month was negatively impacted by extreme weather conditions across most of the country, with a week remaining in January...
Moneyness
The end of El Salvador's bitcoin payments experiment Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use...
3 weeks ago
8
3 weeks ago
Back in 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to require its citizens to use bitcoin for payments. Last month, four years later, it notched another record: it became the first country to rescind bitcoin's status as required tender. This backtracking was the...
Mazdak
Google Pays $700 Million to Settle App Store Antitrust Concerns Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling...
a year ago
40
a year ago
Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling a major antitrust lawsuit brought by a coalition of states. This landmark deal marks a significant victory for developers and consumers alike, potentially paving the way for a more...
Mazdak
The Best Age to Start Taking Social Security: It's Not What You Think When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may...
a year ago
24
a year ago
When you reach full retirement age (FRA), you can start taking Social Security benefits. But you may want to consider taking them sooner, even if it means a smaller monthly check. Here's why: Your benefits will grow by 8% per year for each year you delay taking them, up to age...
Mazdak
Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its...
a year ago
87
a year ago
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its acquisition of smart TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion. This deal is far more than just about TVs; it's a strategic play by Walmart to become a major force in the booming
Mazdak
Creating a Data-Driven LinkedIn Strategy: A Step-by-Step Guide One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its...
4 months ago
60
4 months ago
One of the most effective ways to succeed on LinkedIn is to create content with purpose, track its performance, and adjust based on data.
oftwominds-Charles...
The Power of Our Behavior Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are...
a month ago
7
a month ago
Why is any reduction in consumption posed in terms of unbearable sacrifice, when no sacrifices are necessary to consequentially reduce consumption? When we think of the word power, we associate it with external forces: energy, technology, the government, etc. But our own...
Commoncog
The Amazon Weekly Business Review Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and...
8 months ago
108
8 months ago
Everything you need to know about the Amazon Weekly Business Review: how it works, why it works, and how it helps Amazon win.
FIRE v London
Dec ’24 – 2024 in review And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024....
a month ago
52
a month ago
And we’re off, into 2025. Before we get too far, it’s time to take stock (pardon the pun) of 2024. I’ll follow the 7 point approach I’ve used for the last few years, starting with the wider market context. Q1 How did markets do? December saw falls across most asset classes –...
Mazdak
Perplexity AI’s Bold Move to Merge with TikTok As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a...
a month ago
30
a month ago
As the United States inches closer to a potential TikTok ban, Perplexity AI has emerged as a surprising yet intriguing bidder to merge with TikTok US.
Commoncog
One Definition of Wisdom Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
a year ago
Commoncog
Charlie Munger’s Supply Demand Curve Puzzle What a puzzle from Charlie Munger tells us about a supply-side business model with unreasonably high...
a year ago
The Rational Walk
Negative Lollapalooza Effects Sharing ideas can have benefits but there are also psychological risks. This article applies lessons...
a year ago
28
a year ago
Sharing ideas can have benefits but there are also psychological risks. This article applies lessons from Charlie Munger's psychology of human misjudgment to investing.
Mazdak
Yelp's Transformation: From Review Revolution to Advertising Efficiency Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a...
a year ago
53
a year ago
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. Shifting from a sales-driven model to a self-service advertising engine, Yelp has achieved significant efficiency gains and revitalized its...
Calculated Risk
A Comment on GDPNow On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed...
5 days ago
3
5 days ago
On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed went strongly negative in the most recent reading: "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on...
The Rational Walk
Dollar General: Value or Value Trap? I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some...
a year ago
104
a year ago
I spent Labor Day weekend reading about this beaten down retailer. This article provides some initial thoughts about the company as well as the overall retail landscape.
Calculated Risk
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in...
2 months ago
27
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.56% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA)...
Commoncog
Beck’s Measurement Model, or Why It’s So Damn Hard to Measure Software Development A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of...
a year ago
66
a year ago
A pretty useful lens for when a business activity is easy to measure, and when it is not. Part of the Becoming Data Driven in Business Series.
Calculated Risk
Sunday Night Futures Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024 Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The...
2 months ago
24
2 months ago
Weekend: Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024 Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 5.8, down from 31.2. Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value). WTI futures at $71.12 per...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 Results — Manufacturing, Service, and Retailing A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on...
a year ago
41
a year ago
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on results in Q3 2023 as well as a longer term view.
The Rational Walk
Coffee Can Investing Sometimes an investing approach that is not necessarily "rational" from an economic perspective can...
a year ago
25
a year ago
Sometimes an investing approach that is not necessarily "rational" from an economic perspective can produce superior results when one accounts for human nature.
Calculated Risk
Housing Dec 30th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.5% Week-over-week, Up 26.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week. Inventory will...
2 months ago
26
2 months ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in late January or February. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory...
The Diff
AI Assistants Will Be Great (Especially for the Biggest Companies) Plus! Short Selling; Crypto Treasury Gresham's Law; The Joy of Higher Rates; Labor Substitution;...
3 weeks ago
oftwominds-Charles...
Welcome to the DeepSeek Disruption (DSD) In summary: bloated headcounts, no new sources of revenue from AI, and limitless content with no...
a month ago
6
a month ago
In summary: bloated headcounts, no new sources of revenue from AI, and limitless content with no scarcity value. Welcome to the DSD: DeepSeek Disruption. I've been fruitfully engaged in a lively dialog with readers on my Substack regarding my post yesterday Is DeepSeek a...
Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the October Case-Shiller house price index released earlier this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index...
The Rational Walk
Soldier On In 1955, Charlie Munger's nine year old son died of leukemia, a disease with a nearly 100% death...
a year ago
48
a year ago
In 1955, Charlie Munger's nine year old son died of leukemia, a disease with a nearly 100% death rate at the time. How did he overcome his grief and endure in life?
Calculated Risk
ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends;...
2 weeks ago
7
2 weeks ago
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends; Wildfire Delinquencies Emerge • Delinquencies fell 24 basis points (bps) to 3.47% in January; that’s 10 bps higher than last year, but 33 bps below pre-pandemic levels Foreclosure...
Mazdak
The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large....
11 months ago
92
11 months ago
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large. Enter the 4% rule, a popular guideline that suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and adjust for inflation thereafter. But is it a guaranteed...
Farnam Street
Lessons on Leadership: Michael Abrashoff on Turning the Worst Ship in the Navy into the Best Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile...
over a year ago
78
over a year ago
Michael Abrashoff was in his mid-thirties when he took command of the USS Benfold, a guided missile destroyer and one of the worst-performing ships in the navy. Despite her potency, the “dysfunctional ship had a sullen crew that resented being there and could not wait to get out...
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
a year ago
112
a year ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
Calculated Risk
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.8% below 2022 peak Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below...
a month ago
13
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the November Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was...
Seeking Wisdom
Hello LLMs! When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This...
a year ago
63
a year ago
When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, consider an extreme or simple case. This will often give you the insight needed to move forward. I nodded in agreement when I read the above lines from the book Maxims for Thinking Analytically. ChatGPT took the world by...
Calculated Risk
ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in...
3 days ago
3
3 days ago
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in February; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief...
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
a year ago
77
a year ago
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 9 for 2025: Dividends and Buybacks - Inertia and Me-tooism! In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world,...
3 days ago
5
3 days ago
In my ninth (and last) data post for 2025, I look at cash returned by businesses across the world, looking at both the magnitude and the form of that return. I start with a framework for thinking about how much cash a business can return to its owners, and then argue that, in the...
The Rational Walk
There’s Always a Reason Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an...
a year ago
20
a year ago
Enduring business models in competitive industries exist for good reasons. Dollar stores provide an important option for customers chronically short on cash.
FIRE v London
The richest person you know What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are...
a year ago
113
a year ago
What’s it like to be in the top 1%? According to the statistics, most of the readers of my blog are among the highest earning and/or richest people in the UK. I bet however that not many of you feel that way. Let’s start with income To be in the top 1% of earnings in… Continue...
The Diff
That Top-of-Cycle Feeling Plus! Search; Cost of Capital; Duration; Aggregate Demand; Leaky Restrictions
2 months ago
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
11 months ago
98
11 months ago
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
Seeking Wisdom
Books I loved reading in 2022
over a year ago
Commoncog
An Increase in Membership Prices Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old...
a year ago
46
a year ago
Commoncog is increasing membership prices on 1st August 2023. If you'd like to lock in the old prices, you should probably sign up before then.
Mazdak
OpenAI vs. DeepSeek: The AI Arms Race Heats Up The battle for artificial intelligence supremacy has taken a new turn, and it’s raising major...
a month ago
23
a month ago
The battle for artificial intelligence supremacy has taken a new turn, and it’s raising major concerns about intellectual property, competition, and the future of AI development.
Calculated Risk
NY Fed Q4 Report: Household Debt Increased; High auto loan delinquency rates From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates...
3 weeks ago
8
3 weeks ago
From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates Remain Elevated for Auto and Credit Cards The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The...
Moneyness
Pricing the anonymity of banknotes Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a standard set of payments...
3 months ago
4
3 months ago
Banknotes are useful. Not only do they provide their owner with a standard set of payments services, they also offer financial anonymity. This post introduces the idea of trying to price the anonymity component.  To help think about why we might want to price anonymous...
Calculated Risk
FOMC Projections Statement here. press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM...
2 months ago
32
2 months ago
Statement here. press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. projections.  Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and inflation close to expectations (although...
Mazdak
Reddit CEO: Third-Party App Developers Have Made Millions, So They Should Pay for API Access The Future of Third-Party Reddit Apps: Will They Survive the API Changes? Binance.US Lays Off 50...
a year ago
20
a year ago
The Future of Third-Party Reddit Apps: Will They Survive the API Changes? Binance.US Lays Off 50 Employees After SEC Charges. Google Bans AI Chatbots to Protect Sensitive Information. The Future of Third-Party Reddit Apps: Will They Survive the API Changes?
Mazdak
Can Quantum Break Crypto? Trump to Rescue TikTok? Tech in Defence ... Google’s Quantum Breakthrough: Should Crypto Be Worried?
2 months ago
Mazdak
The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024 The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
a year ago
Mazdak
Inside xAI: Musk vs. OpenAI Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his...
3 months ago
25
3 months ago
Elon Musk is on a mission to create the world's most powerful AI, and he's not afraid to take on his former company, OpenAI, to do it.
oftwominds-Charles...
The Not-So-Strange Paradox of American Power and Dysfunction Americans seem to have forgotten that we are not slaves to finance-tech profits as the sole divining...
3 weeks ago
12
3 weeks ago
Americans seem to have forgotten that we are not slaves to finance-tech profits as the sole divining rods to what happens next. A recent essay explores the paradox of American power: global reach amidst civic decline: The Strange Triumph of a Broken America: Why Power...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #183 Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing,...
a year ago
53
a year ago
Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing, Rivian, AI's morality, AI bubble?, How James Longstreet defied the South after the war
Calculated Risk
Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show...
2 months ago
20
2 months ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth From housing economist Tom Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Incorporate Revised Methodology for Estimating Net International Migration, Show...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #219 Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam...
4 months ago
62
4 months ago
Roth IRA Conversions, Net-Nets, Margin of Safety, SpaceX's Triumph, The Dystopia of Smartphones, Sam Zell, UK Bargains, Gregorys Coffee, Free Speech Under Assault, Dopamine and Addiction
Calculated Risk
The Normal Seasonal Change for Median House Prices Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR:...
a week ago
6
a week ago
Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January, I mentioned that the median price typically bottoms seasonally in January (contracts signed mostly in November and December)...
Calculated Risk
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in...
2 months ago
22
2 months ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local...
Mazdak
2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step 2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to...
a year ago
84
a year ago
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to generate human-quality text, while chipmaker Nvidia pushed the boundaries of what's possible with graphics processing units (GPUs). But amidst the hype, there were also concerns about...
Mazdak
Biden Not to Block TikTok, Apple's Credit Card Dilemma, Google Says No to EU Rules, ... The Biden administration has decided not to enforce the law that could force TikTok to go dark in...
a month ago
Citation Needed
Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me? The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto...
10 months ago
123
10 months ago
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto criminals. Also, lawmakers take another stab at stablecoin regulation.
Farnam Street
Tit For Tat Tit for tat is a strategy which, according to game theory, is the most effective choice for iterated...
over a year ago
62
over a year ago
Tit for tat is a strategy which, according to game theory, is the most effective choice for iterated games based on mutual cooperation or defection. Both players benefit if they cooperate, but one benefits and the other loses out if only they defect, and both lose out to a lesser...
Commoncog
Focus Doesn't Mean Doing One Thing at a Time Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time....
over a year ago
82
over a year ago
Focus may be about saying no to good ideas, but it certainly doesn't mean doing one thing at a time. This is what focus looks like at an organisational level, told through the story of a business turnaround and the Marine Corps approach to war.
Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
a year ago
65
a year ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
FIRE v London
My 20 year property returns I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But...
over a year ago
61
over a year ago
I was pleased to have reached the 10 year point of tracking my investment portfolio last month. But my net worth includes an important asset class – property – that I don’t normally track, but which I have held in some form for over 20 years. So, this post takes a look at how my…...
Calculated Risk
NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter" Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions...
a month ago
15
a month ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter" From the NMHC: Apartment Market Experiences Loosening Conditions, Decreased Deal Flow and Less Available Financing to Start the New Year Apartment...
Calculated Risk
Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2024 At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up...
2 months ago
31
2 months ago
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).  I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a...
balajis.com
The Network State Conference Come to Amsterdam on October 30 to build the parallel establishment.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
Schedule for Week of February 2, 2025 The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade...
a month ago
13
a month ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade deficit​. ----- Monday, February 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.5, up from 49.3 in December. 10:00 AM:...
Calculated Risk
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in... At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR:...
a month ago
18
a month ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in...
Musings on Markets
Return on Equity, Earnings Yield and Market Efficiency: Back to Basics! While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by...
2 weeks ago
13
2 weeks ago
While I was working on my last two data updates for 2025, I got sidetracked, as I am wont to do, by two events. The first was the response that I received to my last data update, where I looked at the profitability of businesses, and specifically at how a comparison of accounting...
Calculated Risk
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active...
2 weeks ago
7
2 weeks ago
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to...
Mazdak
2024 Tax Changes in Canada: A Detailed Guide for Canadians 💰🇨🇦 The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year,...
a year ago
35
a year ago
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year, adjustments and updates across various areas present both opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. Let's explore the key changes and consider their potential ramifications.
Mazdak
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed...
a year ago
53
a year ago
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed as contributions to nonprofit organizations. Shares of Amazon fell 1.8% on Nov. 15 and 0.3% on Nov. 16. Bezos still holds 988.3 million shares of Amazon, around 10% of the company.
balajis.com
Too Fake to Tell US government stats aren't reliable. More importantly, neither are US government bonds.
a year ago
Calculated Risk
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 49.3% in December (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3%...
2 months ago
31
2 months ago
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3% in December, up from 48.4% in November. The employment index was at 45.3%, down from 48.1% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 52.5%, up from 50.4%. Manufacturing...
The Rational Walk
The Cost of Corporate Security The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that...
2 months ago
64
2 months ago
The assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson revealed corruption in society that justifies higher corporate spending to protect executives.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #201 Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
9 months ago
98
9 months ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
Molson Hart's Blog -...
Older Articles I’ve Written In reverse chronological order: Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer...
over a year ago
3
over a year ago
In reverse chronological order: Starting a Physical Product Company? You’re Gonna Need a Lawyer (October 18, 2020) The Right to a Nonconsensus Opinion (June 9, 2020) Never Invest in Anything Made of Metal (May 2, 2020) Simple 3 Step Strategy to Stop the Coronavirus in the...
Commoncog
How to Use Power How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect...
3 months ago
60
3 months ago
How do you gain power, use power, and identify those who have power, so that you may protect yourself against them? Part two of three in a series on power in business.
Mazdak
How to Find Great Stocks That Will Make You Money The stock market can be a great way to grow your wealth over time. However, it's important to know...
a year ago
21
a year ago
The stock market can be a great way to grow your wealth over time. However, it's important to know how to find great stocks that will make you money. In this blog post, I will share five key factors to look for when finding great stocks. Factor 1: Strong Revenue Growth
Mazdak
Tesla's Trump Card: How a Presidency Could Fuel a Trillion-Dollar Boom What happens when a polarizing president and an electric vehicle giant collide?
3 months ago
Citation Needed
Transcript of leaked call with Meteora’s Ben Chow A transcript of a leaked call between DefiTuna’s Moty Povolotski and Meteora’s Ben Chow
2 weeks ago
Calculated Risk
Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million...
a month ago
22
a month ago
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in December were above expectations and starts in October and November were revised up. Total starts were down 4.4% in...
Commoncog
The Story of Samsung How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s...
3 weeks ago
16
3 weeks ago
How Samsung became the largest chaebol in South Korea, and gained so much power over the country’s economy.
Mazdak
LinkedIn Goes All In on Vertical Video For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form...
a month ago
13
a month ago
For years, platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have dominated the short-form video space.
Calculated Risk
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications...
a week ago
5
a week ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 21,...
Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI) Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
a year ago
103
a year ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
Commoncog
Lee Walker and the Dell Growth Plateau How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination,...
a year ago
52
a year ago
How Lee Walker overcame Dell's biggest growth plateau in 1986. A story about capital, imagination, and creative deal-making.
balajis.com
The Network State Book A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
over a year ago
22
over a year ago
A new book on starting new countries. Available on Kindle and for free at thenetworkstate.com.
Commoncog
The Gambling King The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling...
a month ago
18
a month ago
The start of the Asian Conglomerates Series: we open with a look at the life of Stanley Ho, gambling king of Macau.
Bits about Money
A very Chicago gamble Chicago and Bally's have teamed up in an investment offering.
a month ago
Calculated Risk
NAHB: Builder Confidence "Edges Up" in January The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47,...
a month ago
19
a month ago
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47, up from 46 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Builder Confidence Edges Up Even as Market Risk Concerns...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2025: The times they are a'changin'! In my first two data posts for 2025, I looked at the strong year that US equities had in 2024, but a...
a month ago
8
a month ago
In my first two data posts for 2025, I looked at the strong year that US equities had in 2024, but a very good year for the overall market does not always translate into equivalent returns across segments of the market. In this post, I will remain focused on US equities, but I...
Calculated Risk
Housing Jan 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 24.8% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always...
a month ago
22
a month ago
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If the previous week was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has...
Commoncog
What Process Improvement in Education Looks Like What rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes...
5 months ago
55
5 months ago
What rigorous trial and error looks like when applied to improving disadvantaged student outcomes ... and why you should be able to do this in your own org contexts.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #220 The Intelligent Investor, Antitrust and Big Tech, Berkshire Hathaway's Moat, Nuclear War Risks, The...
4 months ago
56
4 months ago
The Intelligent Investor, Antitrust and Big Tech, Berkshire Hathaway's Moat, Nuclear War Risks, The Invisible Man, AIG's Rise & Fall, Housing Prices, Barbary Wars, Speeches of Pericles