Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. FOMC Minutes, Meeting of March 18-19

Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again after the start of President Trump's 2nd term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker. TermPrivate Sector Biden14,327 Clinton 110,875 Clinton 210,104 Obama 29,924 Reagan 29,351 Carter9,039 Reagan 15,363 Obama 11,889 GHW Bush1,507 GW Bush 2453 Trump 23251 GW Bush 1-822 Trump 1-2,178 1Through 2 months Click on graph for larger image. Private sector employment increased by 9,039,000 under President Carter (dashed green), by 14,714,000 under President Reagan (dark red), 1,507,000 under President G.H.W. Bush (light purple), 20,979,000 under President Clinton (light blue), lost 369,000 under President G.W. Bush, and gained 11,813,000 under President Obama (dark dashed blue).  During President Trump's terms (Orange), the economy has lost 1,853,000 private sector jobs.  A big difference between the presidencies has been public sector employment.  Note: the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020.  And a table for public sector jobs. Public sector jobs increased have increased the most during Biden's term (mostly state and local employment), ahead of the number during Reagan's 2nd term.  Public sector jobs declined the most during Obama's first term. TermPublic Sector Biden1,813 Reagan 21,438 Carter1,304 Clinton 21,242 GHW Bush1,127 GW Bush 1900 GW Bush 2844 Clinton 1692 Obama 2447 Trump 2201 Reagan 1-24 Trump-537 Obama 1-710 1Through 2 months

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released. This was before the recent surge in economic uncertainty and stock market volatility that might impact existing home sales. In March, sales in these markets were down 0.7% YoY. Last month, in February, these same markets were down 4.2% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). There is much more in the article.

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines 7% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, receded 6.9% in March to 205.6 (2000=100) from the revised February reading of 220.9. Over the month, commercial planning declined 7.8% while institutional planning fell 5.0%. Increased uncertainty around material prices and fiscal policies may have begun to factor into planning decisions throughout March,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “While planning data has weakened across most nonresidential sectors this month, activity remains considerably higher than year-ago levels and still suggests steady construction activity in mid-2026.” On the commercial side, weaker planning activity for warehouses, data centers and retail stores drove this month’s decline. Meanwhile, hotel and office planning continued to accelerate. On the institutional side, planning activity slowed for education, healthcare and government buildings. In March, the DMI was up 30% when compared to year-ago levels. The commercial segment was up 32% from March 2024. The institutional segment was up 27% over the same period, following a very weak March last year. The influence of data centers on the DMI this year remains substantial. If we remove all data center projects between 2023 and 2025, commercial planning would be up 4% from year-ago levels, and the entire DMI would be up 12%. While momentum decelerated for data centers this month, levels of activity remain very high. ... emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Worst 24 Hours For Rates So Far This Year While there was certainly some volatility surrounding news headlines that were less than credible (specifically, that Trump was considering a 90 day pause on Tariffs), bonds maintained steady selling pressure all day. 30 year fixed 6.82%] emphasis added Small Business Optimism Index for March.