From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking is up from 0.1% q/q saar to 0.4% q/q saar. [Apr 4th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on April 3, up from -3.7 percent on April 1. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.8 percent. [Apr 3rd estimate]

From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: Turning to monetary policy, we face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. Our monetary policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we face as we gain a better understanding of the policy changes and their likely effects on the economy. It is not our role to comment on those policies. Rather, we make an assessment of their likely effects, observe the behavior of the economy, and set monetary policy in a way that best achieves our dual-mandate goals. We have stressed that it will be very difficult to assess the likely economic effects of higher tariffs until there is greater certainty about the details, such as what will be tariffed, at what level and for what duration, and the extent of retaliation from our trading partners. While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth. The size and duration of these effects remain uncertain. While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome would depend on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored, on the size of the effects, and on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices. Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem. emphasis added

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined.   The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%. Earlier: March Employment Report: 228 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in March to 83.3% from 83.5% in February. The 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.4% from 80.5% the previous month. Both are down from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium. Average Hourly Wages The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).   There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% YoY in March.    Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report: The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.8 million, changed little in March. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs" The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.78 million from 4.94 million in February.  This is above the pre-pandemic levels. alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.9% from 8.0% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Unemployed over 26 Weeks This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million. Job Streak Through March 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 51 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).   Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks Year EndedStreak, Months 12020113 2Current, N/A511 3199048 4200746 5197945 6 tie194333 6 tie198633 6 tie200033 9196729 10199525 1Currrent Streak Summary: This was a solid employment report.

From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment also increased in retail trade, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Federal government employment declined. employment in January and February combined is 48,000 lower than previously reported. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. Total payrolls increased by 228 thousand in March.  Private payrolls increased by 209 thousand, and public payrolls increased 19 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 4 thousand). Payrolls for January and February were revised down by 48 thousand, combined. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.5% in March, from 62.4% in February. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. I'll have more later ...

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference, Arlington, Virginia