More from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith
Consuming more of this Ultra-Processed World is not a path to "the good life," it's a path to the destruction and derangement of an Ultra-Processed Life. The digital realm, finance, and junk food have something in common: they're all ultra-processed, synthetic versions of Nature that have been designed to be compellingly addictive, to the detriment of our health and quality of life. In focusing on the digital realm, money (i.e. finance, "growth," consuming more as the measure of all that is good) and eating more of what tastes good, we now have an Ultra-Processed Life. All three-- the digital realm, money in all its manifestations and junk food--are all consumed: they all taste good, i.e. generate endorphin hits, and so they draw us into their synthetic Ultra-Processed World. We're so busy consuming that we don't realize they're consuming us: in focusing on producing and consuming more goods and services as the sole measure of "the good life," it's never enough: if we pile up $1 million, we focus on piling up $2 million. If we pile up $2 million, we focus on accumulating $3 million. And so on, in every manifestation of money and consumption. The digital realm consumes our lives one minute and one hour at a time, for every minute spent focusing on a screen is a minute taken from the real world, which is the only true measure of the quality of our life. Ultra-processed food is edible, but it isn't nutritious. It tastes good, but it harms us in complex ways we don't fully understand. This is the core dynamic of the synthetic "products and services" that dominate modern life: the harm they unleash is hidden beneath a constant flow of endorphin hits, distractions, addictive media and unfilled hunger for all that is lacking in our synthetic Ultra-Processed World: a sense of security, a sense of control, a sense of being grounded, and the absence of a hunger to find synthetic comforts in a world stripped of natural comforts. In effect, we're hungry ghosts in this Ultra-Processed World, unable to satisfy our authentic needs in a synthetic world of artifice and inauthenticity. The more we consume, the hungrier we become for what is unavailable in an Ultra-Processed Life. We're told there's no upper limit on "growth" of GDP, wealth, abundance, finance or consumption, but this is a form of insanity, for none of this "growth" addresses what's lacking and what's broken in our lives, the derangements generated by consuming (and being consumed by) highly profitable synthetic versions of the real world. Insanity is often described as doing the same thing and expecting a different result. So our financial system inflates yet another credit-asset bubble and we expect that this bubble won't pop, laying waste to everyone who believed that doing the same thing would magically generate a different result. But there is another form of insanity that's easily confused with denial: we are blind to the artificial nature of this Ultra-Processed World and blind to its causal mechanisms: there is only one possible output of this synthetic version of Nature, and that output is a complex tangle of derangements that we seek to resolve by dulling the pain of living a deranged life. We're not in denial; we literally don't see our Ultra-Processed World for what it is: a manufactured mirror world of commoditized derangements and distortions that have consumed us so completely that we've lost the ability to see what's been lost. Ultra-processed snacks offer the perfect metaphor. We can't stop consuming more, yet the more we consume the greater the damage to our health. The worse we feel, the more we eat to distract ourselves, to get that comforting endorphin hit. It's a feedback loop that ends in the destruction of our health and life. Once we've been consumed by money, the digital realm and ultra-processed foods, we've lost the taste for the real world. A fresh raw carrot is sweet, but once we're consuming a diet of sugary cold cereals and other equivalents of candy, we no longer taste the natural sweetness of a carrot; it's been lost in the rush of synthetic extremes of salt, sugar and fat that make ultra-processed foods so addictive. To recover the taste of real food, we first have to completely abandon ultra-processed foods-- Go Cold Turkey. The idea that we can consume junk food and maintain the taste for real food in some sort of balance is delusional, for the reasons stated above: junk food destroys our taste for real food and its artificially generated addictive qualities will overwhelm our plan to "eat healthy" half the time. Just as there is no "balance" between ultra-processed food and real food, there is no balance between the synthetic Ultra-Processed World and the real world. We choose one or the other, either by default or by design. Credit--borrowing money created out of thin air--is the financial equivalent of ultra-processed food. The machinery that spews out the addictive glop is complicated: in the "food" factory, real ingredients are processed into addictive snacks. In finance, reverse repos, swaps, derivatives, mortgages, etc. generate a highly addictive financial product: credit. Just as with ultra-processed food, the more credit we consume, the more it consumes us. I owe, I owe, so off to work I go. The derangements of synthetic food, digital realms and finance have yet to fully play out. Consuming more of this Ultra-Processed World is not a path to "the good life," it's a path to the destruction and derangement of an Ultra-Processed Life. New podcast: Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0? (40 min) My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Deliteful ($70), for your splendidly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Mark N. ($70), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Jim L. ($7/month), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Steve ($7/month), for your superbly generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.
Denial doesn't end well, and the 'Economy of Denial' is destined to deconstruction. Even the most opinionated become circumspect when the discussion turns to The Addiction Economy, for the term The Addiction Economy calls things by their real name, which disrupts our protective shield of denial. Yes, denial, for ours is an Economy of Denial, where the surface stability of normalcy demands we avoid calling things by their real name at all costs, for that lays bare the core mechanisms of the Economy of Denial: addiction, extortion, deception. This is a jarring, disturbing mirror, for we see our own reflection. We become quiet when The Addiction Economy comes up, for the core concept here is that highly profitable addictions have been normalized to the degree that the majority of the populace is addicted but doesn't identify their addiction as an addiction because the words addiction and extortion have such negative connotations that they threaten both our sense of normalcy (i.e. belonging to the safe, stable, acceptable majority) and our self-pride that we're far above the poor lost souls who succumb to addiction. Addiction calls up images of illicit drugs and lost souls trapped in destructive dependency. Since discipline and will power are the highly valued engines of accomplishment, we view addicts with disdain, for their emotional craving for immediate comfort and solace has overwhelmed their rational will. This is why saying that we're addicted to our phones, social media, snacks, junk food, fast food, novelty, selfies, entertainment, the endless scroll of "news" and all things "money" is so disquieting, as all of these addictions have been normalized. Since "everyone does it," it can't be an addiction, right? The denial isn't just about recognizing behaviors as destructive dependencies; it's also a denial of the core dynamic of our economy, which is weaponizing and normalizing our instincts to overcome our rationality. As Charles Darwin observed, "The very essence of instinct is that it's followed independently of reason." It's natural to seek sources of immediate comfort and solace, and be drawn to sources of novelty, distraction, amusement and belonging that are socially approved. These are our instinctual, hard-wired drives for dopamine hits and endorphin highs. What The Addiction Economy does is exploit these instincts by engineering products and service to be so addictive that dependency is guaranteed. Given an immediate dopamine hit, rationality and will both dissipate into the ether, and the instinct to get another hit of comfort and solace increases. Bet you can't eat just one is the entire goal, and it's easily amplified / weaponized. But just as important as the weaponization is the narrative control of normalizing destructive dependencies: impulsively looking at our phone hundreds of times a day isn't like an addict seeking a hit; it's normal. Turning to snacks for dopamine hits isn't an addiction, it's normalized. Everyone snacks, all day long. This narrative control is so effective that anyone who refuses to get on board the addiction train is considered not just abnormal, but a threat because refusal is a way of saying "all of this is destructively addictive," i.e. calling things by their real name, and this brings us face to face with our own dependencies on these products and services to provide us comfort, amusement and solace. Just as the alcoholic cannot admit to being addicted to alcohol, we can't admit that our dependencies are dependencies. We rationalize it all away, for the rational mind cannot reverse our hard-wired instincts, but it is absolutely masterful at conjuring rationalizations. The same can be said for extortion, an ugly sounding word conjuring up images of sordid gangsters and helpless victims. That this is a core strategy of Corporate America is an ugly truth that we prefer to cloak with denial. I outlined this dynamic in Here Come the Chaos Monkeys: we took away the durability of your appliance, now pay us extra for an extended warranty. Deception is a core dynamic in the Economy of Denial, for to call it deception, i.e. by its real name, is to reveal the destructive nature of the economy. Deception plays out in multiple levels: products are labeled deceptively to con consumers into buying what they seek--a high-status product that enhances their self-worth in a society geared for downward mobility--with an inferior product intentionally packaged to claim something that isn't true. So the package of coffee is labeled "Kona Coffee," but the fine print reveals it is only 10% Kona coffee. The other 90% is cheap filler. The idea is obvious: label cheap coffee as being $50 per pound specialty coffee, and sell it to those who feel better about themselves drinking coffee that's labeled as high-status. The deception is universal: the once prestigious brand is now made cheaply as a commoditized product bound for the landfill, but the brand can still be milked for higher profit margins. Here's another example. I recently accompanied a friend seeking 100% cranberry juice at a Big Box retailer. A dizzying array of juices claimed to be 100% cranberry juice, but this was not the case; a careful reading of the label revealed that they were "100% juice" but not 100% cranberry juice; they were blends of cheaper juices. Only one brand had only cranberry juice in the list of ingredients. The rest were intentionally deceptive. The most important deception is the one protecting us from admitting that our economy doesn't just profit from deception, it's dependent on deception, in effect addicted to addiction, extortion and deception because if these were somehow extinguished, profits would collapse. Denial is the core dynamic of collapse. Refusing to call things by their real name is the core rationalization that enables us to avoid facing our economy's dependence on destructive dependencies. It's cute to call the weaponization of instinct The Attention Economy, but that doesn't change the fact that it's The Addiction Economy. Denial doesn't end well, and the Economy of Denial is destined to deconstruction. Our only option as individuals and households is Going Cold Turkey in our Addiction Economy. New podcast: Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0? (40 min) My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, CBT ($70), for your astoundingly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, SolarGirl ($70), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Doogie ($7/month), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Earl H. ($70), for your superbly generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.
The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload, we're not even aware of the game until the extortion begins. Chaos Monkeys excel at distraction and extortion. They appear suddenly, leaping about in disorienting mayhem, selecting their targets among those dizzied by sensory overload and confusion. They may appear harmless, until they grab something of ours that is valuable or even essential, and then extort something they value in exchange for what they stole from us. Monkey steals tourist's phone, negotiates for food in exchange Here's how the extortion works in the larger world: you buy an accounting software program, and over the years you dutifully upgrade it from time to time, storing all your financial data in the program. Enter the Chaos Monkeys: you can no longer buy the software, now you must rent it via a monthly subscription. Wait--did you just grab my data, and are extorting me to pay you to get it back? Yes. Chaos Monkeys don't offer you higher quality goods or services; they take something away from you and extort a payment if you want it back.. This is--along with addiction--the business model of this era: take something away from you and then extort a payment to restore it. Distracted and disoriented by the chaos around us, we cave in to the extortion. What's being taken from us comes in many forms. The durability of basic appliances has been taken from us, and the extortion payment is "extended warranties." Wait a minute--didn't this product once have a multi-year warranty? Not any more. Now you have to pay extra for a warranty. The problem with the Chaos Monkeys Business Model is deeper than its crassness. The problem is the Chaos Monkeys Business Model erodes trust in the system, as everything is either designed to addict us or become essential enough that we can be extorted to pay more for what was once standard. The extortion is so blatant that it reveals the true nature of our economy and society. As with purposefully addictive products and services, we're nothing more than profit centers to the addiction dealers and the Chaos Monkey extortionists. One trust is eroded, the system starts collapsing under its immense weight of chaos, addiction and extortion. When everything is a con of one kind or another, then what's left? In terms of a functional social order, nothing. What isn't fake, a fraud, addictive, misrepresented or designed to extort future payments from us? The Chaos Monkeys are so masterful at distracting and confusing us with sensory-digital overload, we're not even aware of the game until the extortion begins: do you want what you once had back? Then pay up. New podcast: Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0? (40 min) My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Bruce ($3/month), for your most generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Carl ($32.40), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, John H. 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The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Will we revel in a New Roaring 20s of exhilarating expansion, or will we suffer a Great Depression 2.0? Gordon Long and I explore this binary in our latest podcast. Why is the next decade a binary of extremes rather than another period of "muddle through"? The short answer: Cycles. Take your pick: the Fourth Turning, the Kondratieff credit cycle, Peter Turchin's 50-year cycle, the Debt Supercycle, and a host of others--they're all hitting their inflection points now. If you dismiss all the cycles, fine. Just look at the political, social and economic state of the world, and you reach the same conclusion: a major historical inflection point in in play. While President Trump's policies are drawing all the media attention, Gordon and I break it all down to three defining systemic dynamics: 1. America's great wealth-income divides, i.e. the winners and losers of financialization and globalization: rural / urban, Main Street / Wall Street and the generational divide. 2. The allocation of capital: creative destruction vs monopoly / cartels. How will the nation's capital be invested? Will it be squandered in malinvestment that serves the interests of private equity, or will it be invested to serve national interests? 3. DOGE and entrenched interests' resistance to change: government over-reach, unlimited deficit spending and the decay of accountability do not serve the common good, yet these excesses benefit powerful entrenched interests who will pull out all the stops to defend their slice of the pie. As I have often noted, the past 40 years can be understood as the Age of Hyper-Financialization and Hyper-Globalization, as these forces have come to dominate the America's economic, political and social landscapes. Financialization and globalization are not neutral forces: they generate winners and losers, and a deep gulf between the two extremes. Coastal urban regions have been the nig winners, rural America has been the big loser. Wall Street has been the big winner, and Main Street the big loser. The Boomer Generation that bought stocks and housing when they were affordable to the majority have been the big winners as these assets have soared in credit-asset bubbles, and the generations priced out of these assets have been the big losers. Monopolies and cartels have been the big winners, to the detriment of everyone else. The crapification of goods and services and the rise of precarity has enriched monopolies, cartels and private equity, at the expense of the rest of us. Will the nation's capital be invested in the common good and the citizenry, or will it serve the interests of private equity? The heavily promoted fantasy is that enriching private equity magically serves the common good and the citizenry, but the decline of the nation's health and security speak to the reality that self-enrichment is not the same as investing in the citizenry and their interests. The core requirement of good governance are: 1) transparency 2) accountability 3) prudent borrowing/spending and 4) limits on over-reach. That each of these are in need of improvement is undeniable, and resistance comes in two flavors: those with different ideas of reform and those resisting any diminishment of their power and share of the state's largesse. The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Clinging on to whatever serves the interests of those benefiting from the current arrangement can be sold as "change," but this isn't adapting, it's maladaptation on a systemic scale. Whether we get the Roaring 20s or the Great Depression 2.0 boils down to this: Are we adapting via real transformations, or are we controlling the narrative to protect those benefiting from the status quo? Stay tuned. My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Harley O. ($20/month), for your outrageously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, Tim C. ($10/month), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, Kitty B. 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Another update ... a few key points: 3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Click on graph for larger image. The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust since normal sales followed the regular seasonal pattern - and distressed sales happened all year.
The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Friday. ----- Monday, March 31st ----- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in February. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for March. ----- Tuesday, April 1st ----- 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February from the BLS. ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, unchanged from 50.3 in February. Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in construction spending. All Day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.6 million SAAR in March, up from 16.0 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). ----- Wednesday, April 2nd ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 119,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from 77,000 added in February. ----- Thursday, April 3rd ----- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 224 thousand last week. 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. ISM Services Index for March. ----- Friday, April 4th ----- 8:30 AM: Employment Report for March. The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference, Arlington, Virginia
As the US government lays a very favorable groundwork for the crypto industry, Trump positions himself for maximum personal profit
From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to 1.0% q/q saar. [Mar 28th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Mar 27th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 28, down from -1.8 percent on March 26. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.5 percent. [Mar 28th estimate]