Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in February. Tom Lawler’s estimate was very close (as usual). Sales averaged over 5.5 million SAAR for the month of February in the 2017-2020 period. So, sales were still about 23% below pre-pandemic levels. Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely months-of-supply will increase into the Summer. There is much more in the article.

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The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 676 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in February 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.8 percent above the revised January rate of 664,000 and is 5.1 percent above the February 2024 estimate of 643,000. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. New home sales were slightly below pre-pandemic levels. The months of supply decreased in February to 8.9 months from 9.0 months in January. "The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 500,000. This represents a supply of 8.9 months at the current sales rate." Sales were close to expectations of 680 thousand SAAR, however sales for the three previous months were revised down, combined. I'll have more later today.

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Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 7.0% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing seasonally. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.   Inventory was up 30.3% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 29.3%), and down 19.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 20.5%).  The gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly! This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of March 21st, inventory was at 668 thousand (7-day average), compared to 656 thousand the prior week.  Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube