From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise with FHA Performance in the Spotlight • The national delinquency rate edged up 5 basis points (bps) to 3.53% in February; that’s up 19 bps from a year ago but still 32 bps below where it was entering the pandemic FHA mortgages accounted for 90% of the 131K rise in the number of delinquencies, despite making up less than 15% of all active mortgages emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here is a table from ICE.

Plus! AI Adoption and Incumbents; DOGE; The News Business; Financing the Trade; What do Oil Companies Want?

In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New Normal. In the cultural zeitgeist, the term Pod People refers to the novel and film franchise Invasion of the Body Snatchers, in which nomadic aliens reach Earth and spawn emotionless replicas of humans. The Pod People have been viewed as metaphors for Communism (the replacement of individuals with zombie-like Group-Think) and for conformity, i.e. social Group-Think. My meaning is entirely different: POD People refers to the present reality of Precariats in 2025, who live in a world of Precarity, Ordeals and Debasement (POD): precarity--insecure work and income; ordeals--finding affordable housing and healthcare (difficult for low-income wage earners), dealing with institutional bureaucracies, public and private; and debasement, what I call Anti-Progress, the debasement of goods and services across the spectrum of daily life, the incremental decline of quality and value, often in ways that are unseen yet consequential. The ranks of the POD People are swelling, expanding far beyond the working class deep into the middle class and upper middle class as secure employment becomes scarce, housing, healthcare and childcare become increasingly unaffordable, and the asset bubbles that have provided a veneer of financial security to the middle class are wobbling. The debasement of food and the digital world affect everyone. The nutrient content of our food has been declining for years, even as ultra-processed foods replace real foods due to the higher profitability of ultra-processed snacks and products. The debasement of the digital world manifests in many ways, debasing our mental and social health. What once worked is now an ordeal. Under-competence is now the norm, meaning fewer workers know how to fix what's broken. Regulatory thickets make what was once relatively smooth (obtaining a building permit, etc.) into months-long ordeals, and simple tasks now require extraordinary effort to get stuff fixed or restored. Medical appointments are now booked months in advance, replacement parts are no longer available--the list of debasement / Anti-Progress is essentially endless. In one way or another, we're all POD People now, for precarity, ordeals and debasement are the New Normal. New podcast: Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0? (40 min) My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, CBT ($70), for your astoundingly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.   Thank you, SolarGirl ($70), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Doogie ($7/month), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.   Thank you, Earl H. ($70), for your superbly generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.

NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous adjustment, it appears GDPNow (adjusted) is slightly positive for Q1. (For more on the gold adjustment, see For GDP Forecasters, Some Gold Doesn't Glitter Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking also remained at 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Mar 21st estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking and domestic final sales estimates unchanged at +1.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and +2.0%, respectively. [Mar 20th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.8 percent on March 18, up from -2.1 percent on March 17. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast for first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 7.2 percent to 9.1 percent. Due to FOMC blackout policy, today’s post does not include an update of the version of the model described here that adjusts the standard GDPNow model forecast for foreign trade in gold. That adjusted model will again be updated after our first scheduled post-blackout update on March 26. [Mar 18th estimate]

The crypto industry frees itself from the last remnants of SEC oversight, and Solana tries to appeal to its target demographic by bashing trans people