Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 223 thousand last week. Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.3% annualized in Q4, unchanged from 2.3% in the second estimate. Pending Home Sales Index for February.  Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for March.

This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available. On March 26, 2025, LBR was at $678.00 per 1000 board feet, up 15% from a year ago. Click on graph for larger image. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year. The recent increase might be due to tariffs.  This is the highest price since the pandemic related shortages.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in February. Tom Lawler’s estimate was very close (as usual). Sales averaged over 5.5 million SAAR for the month of February in the 2017-2020 period. So, sales were still about 23% below pre-pandemic levels. Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely months-of-supply will increase into the Summer. There is much more in the article.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 21, 2025. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Purchase applications saw the strongest weekly pace in almost two months and were 7 percent higher than a year ago. Last week’s purchase activity was driven primarily by a 6 percent increase in FHA applications, as the combination of loosening housing inventory and slowly declining mortgage rates have presented this segment of buyers with more opportunities,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Additionally, VA purchase applications saw a modest increase over the week. Overall applications declined, however, as refinance applications were down 5 percent to its lowest level in a month.” Added Kan, “Markets remained focused on potential trade policy changes, while the Fed held the funds rate its current level, resulting in the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.71 percent last week.” emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).   Purchase application activity is up about 24% from the lows in late October 2023 and is only 3% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.   The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990. The refinance index declined after increasing sharply the previous two weeks and remains very low.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in durable goods orders.