More from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith
Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth understanding if you're exploring self-employment. It's tax preparation time, the secular equivalent of crawling around the temple on cobblestones littered with broken glass. When our numbed minds read instructions like this--"Enter the smaller of line 10 or line 14. Also enter this amount on the applicable line of your return (see instructions)"--we wonder which is more applicable--Kafka's Castle, filled with unseen workers toiling away 24/7 getting nothing remotely useful accomplished, or Huxley's loving our servitude, or perhaps a tortuous mix of both. The simplified form for wage earners is much easier, of course, but it offers precious little in the way of deductions or tax breaks. The tax system for wage earners without huge mortgage interest or out-of-pocket medical expenses deductions is relatively skimpy in terms of tax breaks. The complexity--and the tax breaks--apply mostly to enterprises, from sole proprietors on up. I am not a tax professional, I am only sharing my experience as a self-employed worker. This is not tax or financial advice, it's an account of what I've learned preparing my own taxes for decades. Like most people, I rely on the tax preparation software to comply with tax codes and to do the heavy lifting of preparing the tax return. Of my 54 years of working and paying taxes, 14 were as an employee and 40 were self-employed, so I have experience in both realms. What continues to amaze me is the number of straightforward tax breaks available to the self-employed / sole proprietor. Let's avoid sugarcoating self-employment: it's difficult, demanding and risky. As a general rule, self-employment demands more of us than being an employee on all fronts: we own it all, victories and mistakes. Regulatory burdens and shadow work eat us alive. Much of what passes for self-employment now is low-paid gig work with little upside. So there is a trade-off here: self-employment is difficult to build up and keep going (taking a vow of poverty is a good start), which is why so few people manage to earn a middle-class income via self-employment outside the professions (accountant, attorney, etc.)--and even those fields are not easy paths to reliable livelihoods. But there are tax advantages. Let's start with business expenses. How we run our business is up to us. If we keep track of legitimate expenses (bought lunch for Client A, drove X miles to post office to mail packages, etc.), then nobody can deny that business expense. And if Client A only spent 10 seconds of an hour-long lunch talking "business," that's the nature of business lunches. Everyone understands there's wiggle-room in expenses. The system is designed to seek out unsubstantiated claims, not question how we run our business. If you happened to stop at the supermarket on the way to the post office, nobody's going to nix your mileage deduction. You went to the post office to mail a business-related package, and here's the receipt. Then there's the list of deductions for things you had to pay anyway. The self-employed pay both the employee and employer parts of Social Security and Medicare, so that's a hefty 15.3% of taxable income. But half of this self-employment tax is deductible. The cost of your healthcare insurance is also deductible. Retirement funding is another benefit. Yes, wage earners with 401K plans can contribute big chunks of cash into their tax-deferred accounts, but not every employee has a 401K plan at work. the basic limits for contributing to an IRA (individual Retirement Account) is $7,000--not much in today's inflationary era. The self-employed can open a Solo 401K that offers two benefits: the sums that can be stashed in the tax-deferred account are substantial (depending on one's income and age, $30,000 and up), and the Solo 401K funds can be used to buy precious metals or rental real estate as well as traditional financial assets--options not available to corporate 401K plans. Then there's the Qualified Business Income Deduction, a deduction available to most sole proprietor enterprises that tax-prep software such as TurboTax generates automatically. If you have a dedicated home office, the costs of that percentage of your house can be deducted as an expense. These deductions knock down your taxable net income, reducing your tax burden. And you can take the standard deduction, of course, further reducing your taxable income. All this requires tedious, attention-to-detail bookkeeping. That takes effort. But that's part of being in business. Yes, some people try to get away with absurd deductions, but it's easier to assume every expense / deduction will be audited, and proceed accordingly. There are plenty of legitimate expenses and deductions, so flim-flam is unnecessary. Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth understanding if you're exploring self-employment. There are roughly 9.8 million unincorporated self-employed (700K in agriculture and 9.1 million in non-ag sectors) and about 6.5 million incorporated self-employed, which are typically professionals in healthcare, legal and accounting services, engineers, architects, etc. Compare these to the wage-salary workforce of 152 million. Labor Force Statistics (BLS) As we might expect, self-employment rises in booms and declines in busts. It is currently around the same numbers it reached 30 years ago, despite the U.S. population rising by 30%, from 265 million in 1995 to 345 million in 2024. This suggests self-employment is declining as a percentage of the workforce. This also doesn't factor in the reality that the many self-employed workers earn modest sums and have a wage job to supplement their income. It's more challenging to start self-employment now, and more challenging to make a middle-class livelihood as a self-employed worker. Many regulations seem designed to favor corporations, and many locales claim to favor small business but do little to make it easier / cheaper to start a sole proprietorship. For many of us self-employed, we have no choice. The independence and accountability are what allow us to to thrive as human beings. New podcast: Charles Hugh Smith - LeafBox -- wide-ranging discussion of Anti-Progress, technology, mythology, and experimenting to right-size your own electrical utility... My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Sue W. ($225), for your beyond-outrageously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, Michael D. ($70), for your superbly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, David E. 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The Problem With Money is that it's complicated. To many minds, the solution to our core economic problems is to return to sound money via either the gold standard, in which gold backs all currency, or by substituting bitcoin for gold, i.e. bitcoin becomes the coin of the realm. I have often held that if we don't change the way money is created and distributed, we've changed nothing. But money is complicated, and this introduces the koan of this post's title: The Problem With Money Isn't Money. The human mind prefers simplicity over complexity, and so we tend to seek simple solutions to complex problems. Sometimes simple solutions do work with almost magical efficacy, but other times they generate new problems that we didn't foresee, problems that complicate our simple solution. As David Graeber explained in his book Debt: The First 5,000 Years, the problem with money isn't what's declared the coin of the realm, it's all the forms of money that aren't coins and currency, i.e. credit a.k.a. debt, which as Graeber documents, has been "money" since commerce began. If we cut to the chase, the problem with money boils down to: 1. There isn't enough coin of the realm to grease all the activity everyone wants to pursue. 2. Most of the coin of the realm is owned by the wealthy, out of reach of commoners trying to improve their standard of living. 3. Regardless of what's declared the coin of the realm, human Wetware1.0 will generate disastrously destructive speculative bubbles and panics. If you declare clam shells as money, clam shells will be "invested" (i.e. gambled) in speculations that amass fortunes for a few and ruin for the rest. The extraordinary speculative manias and resulting ruin of the South Seas and Tulip Bubbles occurred in sound money economies. sound money didn't inhibit the rise of bubbles and the resulting crashes, nor did it limit the depressions and panics that characterized the 19th century. The problem in 1800 America was straightforward: there wasn't enough gold and silver in circulation to fuel the immense drive to increase production and commerce. If sound money is limited, and much of what is in existence is in the hands of the wealthy, then the economy of the bottom 95% can't expand. Here is the economic reality that sound money can't solve: the wealthy inherit sound money, or they own monopolies or enterprises that generate sound money, but the commoners have only their labor to sell, and the value of that labor is set by market forces such that few can earn enough to pile up savings sufficient to start an enterprise or buy an asset in cash. The rich love sound money, the poor love money in circulation and credit because these are the only means they have to increase production and commerce. This is the lesson of history: paper money was issued in China because there wasn't enough gold and silver in circulation to grease everyday commerce and production. In other realms, copper coins were issued for everyday transactions, as there wasn't enough gold and silver in circulation for average people to get their hands on any of it. A scarcity of gold and silver wasn't just a problem for commoners seeking to increase production and commerce; it was a problem for governments, too as commoners couldn't pay their taxes in gold or silver because they didn't have any. Taxes had to be paid in kind, i.e. with grain or with some other form of "money" that wasn't gold or silver. In the Middle Ages, the scarcity of gold and silver led to the creation of a vast system of commercial credit in which paper was "money." In today's terminology, merchants issued purchase orders and arranged for trade via promissory notes held by trusted intermediaries that could be traded as "money" before settlement. So if we agreed to trade a cartload of lumber for woolen clothing, the actual exchange of these goods would occur at one of the great trading fairs. In the meantime, I could trade (sell) the promissory note for the lumber to another merchant, and use the proceeds to pursue other commerce. At the trade fair, the goods would be exchanged and the "money" created by the notes disappeared. In other words, the vast majority of commerce was enabled by credit, not sound money. If commerce had been restricted solely to sound money, then there would have been very little commerce and therefore few opportunities for commoners to get ahead. Credit is "money," too. This is the reality that proponents of sound money gloss over. Most of the "money" in any system is credit or fiat: the Chinese dynasties issued "fiat currency" paper money out of necessity, just as ancient regimes issued low-value copper coinage to serve the same purpose, and merchants throughout history have used commercial credit as "money." One would imagine that the Spanish Empire, funded by its treasure fleet of silver from the New World, had no need for credit. But one would be wrong. The flood of silver expanded the supply of "money," and the result was predictable: the value of silver "money" fell accordingly. The Empire pursued so many wars simultaneously that it borrowed heavily from Dutch bankers. Its enormous income of sound money did not stop it from becoming over-indebted. In the early 1800s, Americans were desperate for credit to expand production and commerce, and so banks sprouted and failed with alarming regularity. Recall how bank credit works. The bank accepts cash deposits, and loans out a percentage of the cash at interest as the necessary means of earning revenues to support the bank's costs of doing business: rent, employees, etc., and generating a return for the owners. In the normal course of everyday commerce, keeping 25% of the cash for customers withdrawing their deposited cash is more than enough. But then a financial panic arises, and every customer rushes to the bank to withdraw their savings in full. The bank doesn't have enough cash, and so it calls in all its loans. The borrowers don't have the cash on hand to pay back the loan, so they are bankrupted. The bank doesn't have enough cash to cover all withdrawal demands, and so the bank fails, and the depositors who weren't first in line lose their money. You see The Problem With Money Isn't Money per se, it's credit, humanity's hunger for speculation and improving one's standard of living and the necessity of issuing credit and other forms of "money" to grease commerce and increase production. How to satisfy the needs for credit and "money" in circulation and limiting the downsides of speculative bubbles and panics are the problems central banks were created to resolve. Sound money--the coin of the realm throughout history--generates its own set of problems, and does not eliminate speculative bubbles and crashes or the destruction wrought by panics. The Problem With Money is that it's complicated. It's tied not just to scarcity value and supply and demand but to human psychology and everything from the need to collect taxes to the Pareto Distribution, which dictates that 80% of all the wealth--property and all the sound money--will end up in the hands of the top 20%, leaving the bottom 80% with few opportunities to improve their lot. The rich own the sound money and the poor who want to get ahead need credit to fund their attempt to improve their lot. When speculative bubbles pop, the resulting ruin cannot be avoided. The problems of Money cannot be reduced down to a simple solution. New podcast: Charles Hugh Smith - LeafBox -- wide-ranging discussion of Anti-Progress, technology, mythology, and experimenting to right-size your own electrical utility... My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Bluemax2045 ($70), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Jed B ($7/month), for your superbly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Gary C. 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Meanwhile, in the lived-in world, our quality of life is unraveling in myriad ways as algorithmically-driven under-competence and mediocrity are now the norm. When deployed by monopolies / cartels, automation institutionalizes mediocrity, and soon everyone forgets excellence and quality because they no longer have any experience of either one. And since our economy is dominated by monopolies / cartels, automation has reduced our quality of life across the board. Once the "market choice" of price-constrained consumers has been reduced to one option (monopoly) or a handful of options offering the same price and quality (cartel), then monopolies / cartels have an irresistible incentive (increase profits) to slash costs by automating everything that can be automated, along with reducing the quality of customer service, for why bother spending money on customer service when the customers have no option other than another member of the cartel? With the customers corralled, the incentives are to algorithmically optimize mediocrity, as mediocrity is the most profitable optimization possible. If customer service and quality are degraded to the point of failure, consumers might rouse themselves and demand some improvement. But the pursuit of excellence is a waste of money, as the customers are effectively prisoners, so why waste money making gourmet meals for prisoners? Here's a good description of how automation institutionalizes mediocrity, and by automation I don't mean just chatbots, robots, voice-activated menus, etc.--automation includes automating via algorithms the organization and processes of all services and procedures. In other words, employees of the monopolies / cartels have to follow the optimized procedures under pain of being punished, even if the procedures complicate tasks, inhibit solutions and reduce the quality of customer service: The Demoralizing Downward Spiral Of Algorithmic Culture. Simply put, the nonsensical insanity of Kafka's everyone's busy 24/7 but nothing useful gets done Castle is optimized by automation. Monopolies come in two flavors: government and private. Both optimize mediocrity via automation. The automation of mediocrity is part of the systemic optimization of under-competence: employees receive just enough training to follow procedures in normal situations, but this purposefully thin training (why waste money training employees when a cheap algorithm can do the heavy lifting?) leaves the employees completely incompetent when a crisis arises that can only be resolved by those with experiential knowledge of the entire system. Mediocrity--oh so profitable in normal circumstances--guarantees failure when something outside the norm destabilizes the over-optimized machine. This reliance on algorithms has stripped us of competence outside the narrow boundaries of normal transactions. Here's one way to understand this drawn from my own experience: the service is broken, but the problem isn't one of the three menu options offered--and there is no other choice but one of the three algorithmically programmed three options. So the problem is unfixable. We can understand deep experiential expertise as a type of human-capital buffer or redundancy which seems like an unnecessary expense when everything is operating normally, but when anomalous events reveal the limitations of algorithmic procedures, there's nobody left with the experience needed to stop the system from collapsing. This is how automation has optimized under-competence, rendering all these organizations prone to sudden, surprising failure. In summary, automating mediocrity optimizes profitability and sloth. Never mind if the quality of the service or product is low, because the customers have no real choice. It's easier to just follow procedures, and more profitable for private monopolies / cartels to optimize the automation of mediocrity. The Mythology of Technological Progress demands our worship of technology as the font of all goodness in the world. Meanwhile, in the lived-in world, our quality of life is unraveling in myriad ways as algorithmically-driven under-competence and mediocrity are now the norm, even as this optimization has eroded systemic resilience in ways few understand. My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Primob ($200), for your outrageously generous Founding Member subscription -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Art G. ($3/month), for your superbly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Donald B. 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Americans seem to have forgotten that we are not slaves to finance-tech profits as the sole divining rods to what happens next. A recent essay explores the paradox of American power: global reach amidst civic decline: The Strange Triumph of a Broken America: Why Power Abroad Comes With Dysfunction at Home. The media, mainstream and alternative alike, has long been highly attuned to evidence of US decline. This sensitivity held sway throughout the Cold War (1950 to 1990), briefly morphed into triumphalism in the early 1990s "unipolar moment" and then returned to tracking decline in the era of China's rise (1998-present). As a mind experiment, substitute "China" for the "US" in the following statistics drawn from the essay. Many of us find that we believe statistics showing China's dominance more readily than we believe those showing US dominance. By virtually any measure, the US has gained ground on its international rivals in key areas. Autocratic regimes excel in cloaking their systemic problems behind unverifiable claims, while democracies are a free-for-all of self-criticism. This openness accentuates the sensitivity to decline while the decline of autocracies is papered over. Consider these statistics with an open mind. (The essay is behind a paywall so I am excerpting data points. Let's stipulate that statistics can be massaged or inherently flawed, for example GDP, but they offer a general data-based context for discussion.) The US accounts for 26% of global GDP, the same as during the 'unipolar moment' of the early 1990s. In 2008, the economies of the US and the Eurozone were nearly equal in size, but today, the American economy is twice as large. The US economy is roughly 30% larger than the combined economies of the so-called global South: Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. A decade ago, it was just 10% larger. In 1995, Japanese citizens were, on average, 50% wealthier than Americans, measured in current dollars; today, Americans are 140% richer. If Japan were a U.S. state, it would rank as the poorest in average wages, behind Mississippi--as would France, Germany, and the UK. From 1990 to 2019, U.S. median household income rose 55% after taxes, transfers, and adjusting for inflation, with income in the bottom fifth seeing a 74% gain. The US dollar (USD) accounts for nearly 60% of global central bank reserves--down from 68% in 2004 but equivalent to its 1995 share. It is used in roughly 70% of both cross-border banking and foreign currency debt issuance--up from 2004--and almost 90% of global foreign exchange transactions. (China's renminbi holds a 2.3% share of global central bank reserves.) Once the world's largest energy importer, the US is now the leading producer of oil and natural gas, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia. US energy efficiency and renewable technologies have lowered per capita carbon emissions down to levels not seen since the 1910s. The US consumer market is equivalent to China's and the Eurozone's combined. U.S. firms generate over 50% of the world's high-tech profits, whereas China captures only 6%. The US is the only great power whose prime working-age population is projected to grow throughout this century. In contrast, China's population of workers between the ages of 25 and 49 is projected to drop by 74%, Germany's by 23%, India's by 23%, Japan's by 44%, and Russia's by 27%. Americans start businesses at two to three times the rate of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Russia and one and a half times the rates of China and the UK. The US is home to 7 of the top 10 universities and a quarter of the top 200. Exports account for just 11% of GDP, compared with a global average of about 30%. Global capital flows into the US as a safe haven. This chart of the global stock market reveals the enormous gap between the US stock market as a magnet for global capital and everyone else: the US market comprises 67% of global equities, while China has a tiny 3% share. Global capital is not pouring into China as a safe, profitable haven, it's leaving China to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars a year, as China's property bubble burst has already erased $18 trillion and is far from bottoming. The opportunity costs of China's subsidy-heavy economic development model are enormous. The electric vehicle sector alone has received $231 billion in subsidies since 2009, while China's neglect of its rural population has left around 300 million people without the education or skills needed to work in a modern economy, as the economist Scott Rozelle has shown. China's new tech startups have dropped from over 50,000 in 2018 to just 1,200 by 2023. Chinese are the fastest-growing migrant group crossing the U.S. southern border, with their numbers surging 50-fold. All this speaks to two points: 1) every nation has problems balancing global ambitions and domestic stability, and 2) the durability of US global reach. The author then turns to America's domestic dysfunctions, and makes these points: Social Security and Medicare help seniors, but working-age Americans receive far less support. United States spending only one-fourth of the OECD (the developed economies) average on job training and just over one-third on childcare and early education. Urban centers have largely reaped the benefits of globalization, immigration, and the shift to knowledge- and service-based industries. In contrast, most rural areas have been left behind. The US economic system has impoverished rural areas, threatening the stability of American democracy. From 2000 to 2007, the United States lost 3.6 million manufacturing jobs, followed by another 2.3 million during the 2008 financial crisis. Rural towns were hit hardest. Immigration reduced the earnings of the least-skilled native-born workers by 0.5 to 1.2 percent for each one percent rise in immigrant labor supply, according to an exhaustive review. From 2000 to 2019, 94 percent of new U.S. jobs were created in urban areas. Working-class men have been hardest hit by reductions in decent-paying blue-collar jobs and wages over the past two decades. As the economist Nicholas Eberstadt has shown, prime-age men currently suffer unemployment levels comparable to those of the Great Depression. A military recruitment crisis has arisen, as 77% of young Americans ineligible for service because of obesity, drug use, or health issues. In the author's view, globalization has splintered the US along urban-rural lines: "The urban-rural divide itself remains a powerful obstacle to reform, because it fuels political polarization and gridlock. This fault line is likely to define American society for years to come, threatening national cohesion in a dangerous world." He sees this divide as threatening American democracy: "The cultural fissure between the parties increasingly threatens the United States’ democratic stability." he also believes that "an exaggerated sense of decay is already starting to destabilize democracy." In my analysis, the author has missed the key dynamics driving this paradox: the dominance of finance and technology in the economy, and the dominance of the economy over every other source of national coherence. He also misses the dire consequences of the internal contradiction at the heart of the Attention / Addiction Economy we now inhabit: it's highly profitable to addict consumers to junk food, technologies and deranging content, and highly profitable to treat the resulting chronic disorders with medications, just as it's highly profitable to replace durability with planned obsolescence. In other words, it's no mystery that 77% of America's youth can't qualify for military service: it's extraordinarily profitable to degrade their physical and mental health and then treat the degradation with medications. By making financial metrics the sole measure of success and Progress, we've elevated the most profitable sectors--finance and technology--to the point that our entire economy is a winner-take-most game in which those enterprises and individuals who are most adept at leveraging globalization and financialization for their private gain are worshiped as winners, while those who are less adept are abandoned as having little to no value in the game, so why invest in them? Being a magnet for the immense global wealth that has been created by the policy responses to the 2008 Global Financial Meltdown also has perverse consequences, as global capital has been a key factor in pushing housing and other asset valuations to nosebleed levels, rendering housing unaffordable to young Americans just entering the market. The author also failed to note that this rural-urban divide is global: small farmers and rural towns aren't just struggling in the US, they're struggling in Europe, Japan and China, too. Globalization has re-ordered the global economy in ways that are destructive to civic stability, as decentralized, localized producers cannot compete with globalized, commoditized crops, capital, labor and goods. As I have taken pains to explain, this manic focus on maximizing profits as the sole metric has consolidated supply chains and capital into inherently unstable systems stripped of resilience. This fragility is masked by the apparent robustness of these systems, so that only insiders know how vulnerable the system is to disruption in any dependency chain. In elevating maximizing profits as the sole metric for making decisions, we've created an economy of monopolies and cartels, for as J.D. Rockefeller understood, competition and transparency are obstacles to profits and must be eliminated. Once capital is concentrated, it has the means to buy political influence and control the narrative, glorifying immensely profitable finance as "doing God's work" and technology monopolies as saviors of humanity. These asymmetries are the source of both global dominance and the destabilization of domestic coherence. Understood in this way, the paradox of American power and dysfunction are not strange; the paradox is the inevitable result of favoring profitable finance and technology above all else, as these generate global dominance and destabilizing asymmetries in the domestic economy. Americans seem to have forgotten that we are not slaves to finance-tech profits as the sole divining rods to what happens next; we can rebalance profit with civic coherence by reducing the asymmetries created by the worship of financial-tech profits. What's good for trillion-dollar corporations may not be good for the nation. This reality is taboo, as is the recognition that much of what is unraveling America's quality of life is Anti-Progress masquerading as Progress to reap greater profits, even as the machinery generating those profits grinds up the citizenry like grist in the mill. We can do better, and must do better. Perhaps one starting point is to identify the taboos protecting the machinery unraveling national coherence from scrutiny. This essay was first distributed exclusively to my subscribers and patrons. Thank you for supporting my work. My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Hccadman ($32.40), for your wondrously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, John D. ($3/month), for your superbly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Sly Scribe ($3/month), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Dennis W. ($7/month), for your splendidly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.
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Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth understanding if you're exploring self-employment. It's tax preparation time, the secular equivalent of crawling around the temple on cobblestones littered with broken glass. When our numbed minds read instructions like this--"Enter the smaller of line 10 or line 14. Also enter this amount on the applicable line of your return (see instructions)"--we wonder which is more applicable--Kafka's Castle, filled with unseen workers toiling away 24/7 getting nothing remotely useful accomplished, or Huxley's loving our servitude, or perhaps a tortuous mix of both. The simplified form for wage earners is much easier, of course, but it offers precious little in the way of deductions or tax breaks. The tax system for wage earners without huge mortgage interest or out-of-pocket medical expenses deductions is relatively skimpy in terms of tax breaks. The complexity--and the tax breaks--apply mostly to enterprises, from sole proprietors on up. I am not a tax professional, I am only sharing my experience as a self-employed worker. This is not tax or financial advice, it's an account of what I've learned preparing my own taxes for decades. Like most people, I rely on the tax preparation software to comply with tax codes and to do the heavy lifting of preparing the tax return. Of my 54 years of working and paying taxes, 14 were as an employee and 40 were self-employed, so I have experience in both realms. What continues to amaze me is the number of straightforward tax breaks available to the self-employed / sole proprietor. Let's avoid sugarcoating self-employment: it's difficult, demanding and risky. As a general rule, self-employment demands more of us than being an employee on all fronts: we own it all, victories and mistakes. Regulatory burdens and shadow work eat us alive. Much of what passes for self-employment now is low-paid gig work with little upside. So there is a trade-off here: self-employment is difficult to build up and keep going (taking a vow of poverty is a good start), which is why so few people manage to earn a middle-class income via self-employment outside the professions (accountant, attorney, etc.)--and even those fields are not easy paths to reliable livelihoods. But there are tax advantages. Let's start with business expenses. How we run our business is up to us. If we keep track of legitimate expenses (bought lunch for Client A, drove X miles to post office to mail packages, etc.), then nobody can deny that business expense. And if Client A only spent 10 seconds of an hour-long lunch talking "business," that's the nature of business lunches. Everyone understands there's wiggle-room in expenses. The system is designed to seek out unsubstantiated claims, not question how we run our business. If you happened to stop at the supermarket on the way to the post office, nobody's going to nix your mileage deduction. You went to the post office to mail a business-related package, and here's the receipt. Then there's the list of deductions for things you had to pay anyway. The self-employed pay both the employee and employer parts of Social Security and Medicare, so that's a hefty 15.3% of taxable income. But half of this self-employment tax is deductible. The cost of your healthcare insurance is also deductible. Retirement funding is another benefit. Yes, wage earners with 401K plans can contribute big chunks of cash into their tax-deferred accounts, but not every employee has a 401K plan at work. the basic limits for contributing to an IRA (individual Retirement Account) is $7,000--not much in today's inflationary era. The self-employed can open a Solo 401K that offers two benefits: the sums that can be stashed in the tax-deferred account are substantial (depending on one's income and age, $30,000 and up), and the Solo 401K funds can be used to buy precious metals or rental real estate as well as traditional financial assets--options not available to corporate 401K plans. Then there's the Qualified Business Income Deduction, a deduction available to most sole proprietor enterprises that tax-prep software such as TurboTax generates automatically. If you have a dedicated home office, the costs of that percentage of your house can be deducted as an expense. These deductions knock down your taxable net income, reducing your tax burden. And you can take the standard deduction, of course, further reducing your taxable income. All this requires tedious, attention-to-detail bookkeeping. That takes effort. But that's part of being in business. Yes, some people try to get away with absurd deductions, but it's easier to assume every expense / deduction will be audited, and proceed accordingly. There are plenty of legitimate expenses and deductions, so flim-flam is unnecessary. Lowering one's tax burden is not the reason to pursue self-employment, but it is something worth understanding if you're exploring self-employment. There are roughly 9.8 million unincorporated self-employed (700K in agriculture and 9.1 million in non-ag sectors) and about 6.5 million incorporated self-employed, which are typically professionals in healthcare, legal and accounting services, engineers, architects, etc. Compare these to the wage-salary workforce of 152 million. Labor Force Statistics (BLS) As we might expect, self-employment rises in booms and declines in busts. It is currently around the same numbers it reached 30 years ago, despite the U.S. population rising by 30%, from 265 million in 1995 to 345 million in 2024. This suggests self-employment is declining as a percentage of the workforce. This also doesn't factor in the reality that the many self-employed workers earn modest sums and have a wage job to supplement their income. It's more challenging to start self-employment now, and more challenging to make a middle-class livelihood as a self-employed worker. Many regulations seem designed to favor corporations, and many locales claim to favor small business but do little to make it easier / cheaper to start a sole proprietorship. For many of us self-employed, we have no choice. The independence and accountability are what allow us to to thrive as human beings. New podcast: Charles Hugh Smith - LeafBox -- wide-ranging discussion of Anti-Progress, technology, mythology, and experimenting to right-size your own electrical utility... My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Sue W. ($225), for your beyond-outrageously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, Michael D. ($70), for your superbly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, David E. ($100), for your outrageously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, Don F. ($50), for your splendidly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.
Plus! Humans in the Loop; Humans in the Loop, Con't.; The Hardware/Software Burden; Custody; Unwinding a Bubble
This was a new record for imports in January, eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) by 17%! some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Click on graph for larger image. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 25% YoY in January and exports were down slightly YoY. This was a very strong July through January period as importers were likely stockpiling goods prior to the increase in tariffs.
After 17 years of research and development, Microsoft has unveiled its first quantum processor—Majorana 1. This breakthrough has the potential to redefine the future of computing, promising industrial-scale problem-solving and scientific discovery at an unprecedented level.
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28–29, 2025. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although progress could remain uneven. Participants cited various factors as likely to put continuing downward pressure on inflation, including an easing in nominal wage growth, well-anchored longer-term inflation expectations, waning business pricing power, and the Committee's still-restrictive monetary policy stance. A few noted, however, that the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be far above its neutral level. Furthermore, some participants commented that with supply and demand in the labor market roughly in balance and in light of recent productivity gains, labor market conditions were unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure in the near future. However, other factors were cited as having the potential to hinder the disinflation process, including the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number of Districts had indicated that firms would attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs. In addition, some participants noted that some market- or survey-based measures of expected inflation had increased recently, although many participants emphasized that longer-term measures of expected inflation had remained well anchored. Some participants remarked that reported inflation at the beginning of the year was harder than usual to interpret because of the difficulties in fully removing seasonal effects, and a couple of participants commented that any increase in reported inflation in the first quarter due to such difficulties would imply a corresponding decrease in reported inflation in other quarters of the year. the Committee was well positioned to take time to assess the evolving outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, with the vast majority pointing to a still-restrictive policy stance. Participants indicated that, provided the economy remained near maximum employment, they would want to see further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate. Participants noted that policy decisions were not on a preset course and were conditional on the evolution of the economy, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks. emphasis added