The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $98.4 billion in December, up $19.5 billion from $78.9 billion in November, revised. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Exports and imports increased in November. Both imports and exports have generally increased recently.   The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. It is likely some importers were trying to beat potential tariffs.

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in January; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Consumer-facing industries drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production.” This was above the consensus forecast of 150,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 170,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in January.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 31, 2025. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the Martin Luther King holiday. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 15 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.2 percent higher than the same week one year ago. Purchase activity had a tougher week, with declines across all loan types. The average loan size for a purchase loan has increased since the start of the year and continued that trend last week with weaker government purchase activity, which reached $447,300, the highest level since October 2024.” ... emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).   Purchase application activity is up about 25% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 4% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.   The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990. The refinance index remains very low.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in January, up from 122,000 added in December. Trade Balance report for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $87.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $78.2 billion in November. ISM Services Index for January.

From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Rise 14.2 Percent Total bankruptcy filings rose 14.2 percent, with increases in both business and non-business bankruptcies, in the twelve-month period ending Dec. 31, 2024. This continues an ongoing rebound in filings after more than a decade of sharply dropping totals. remain far lower than historical highs. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the business and non-business bankruptcy filings by calendar year since 1997. The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". 2024 was the 4th lowest year for bankruptcy filings, and 33% below the pre-pandemic level in 2019.