Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in January, up from 122,000 added in December. Trade Balance report for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $87.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $78.2 billion in November. ISM Services Index for January.

From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Rise 14.2 Percent Total bankruptcy filings rose 14.2 percent, with increases in both business and non-business bankruptcies, in the twelve-month period ending Dec. 31, 2024. This continues an ongoing rebound in filings after more than a decade of sharply dropping totals. remain far lower than historical highs. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the business and non-business bankruptcy filings by calendar year since 1997. The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". 2024 was the 4th lowest year for bankruptcy filings, and 33% below the pre-pandemic level in 2019.

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the January 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 534 thousand. Click on graph for larger image. Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020.   Heavy truck sales were at 534 thousand SAAR in January, up from 454 thousand in December, and up 4.6% from 510 thousand SAAR in January 2025.   Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession.  Currently heavy truck sales are solid. As I mentioned yesterday, light vehicle sales decreased in January. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.   Light vehicle sales were at 15.60 million SAAR in January, down from 16.87 million in November, and up 3.8% from 15.03 million in January 2024.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in December was 0.59%, up from 0.56% November. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.55% in December 2023, however, this is below the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%. Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in December was 0.56%, up from 0.53% in November. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.55% in December 2023, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%. There is much more in the article.

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 7.6 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations were little changed at 5.5 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little. emphasis added This report is for December; the employment report this Friday will be for January. Click on graph for larger image. The number of job openings (black) were down 15% year-over-year.  Quits were down 7% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").