The key reports this week are January New Home sales, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for January, and Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, February 24th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data. Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. ----- Tuesday, February 25th ----- 9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for December 2024. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. 9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for December. Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. ----- Wednesday, February 26th ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. 10:00 AM: New Home Sales for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is that new home sales increased to 678 thousand SAAR, down from 698 thousand in December. ----- Thursday, February 27th ----- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 225 thousand from 219 thousand last week. Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.3% annualized in Q4, unchanged from the advance estimate of 2.3%. Durable Goods Orders for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.8% increase in durable goods orders. Pending Home Sales Index for January. The consensus is for a 1.2% decrease in the index. Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for February. ----- Friday, February 28th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.6% YoY. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for February.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations. COVID Metrics  NowWeek AgoGoal Deaths per Week859953≤3501 1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023. Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2023 (low of 314 deaths), I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are once again below the goal. Weekly deaths are now decreasing following the winter pickup. And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of February 20th: This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has moving down recently. Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Moderate", down from "High" last week, according to the CDC.

From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14. Since then, our 1Q GDP tracker is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 4Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.2% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 21st] emphasis added From Goldman: [W]e lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate by 0.1pp to +2.1%. We left our Q4 past quarter tracking estimate unchanged at +2.1%. [Feb 19th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow [T]he GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent on February 19, unchanged from February 14 after rounding. [Feb 19th estimate]

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Sales in January (4.08 million SAAR) were down 4.9% from the previous month and were 2.0% above the January 2024 sales rate. This was the fourth consecutive year-over-year increase after declining YoY every month for over 3 years. Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025. Sales increased 2.0% year-over-year compared to January 2024. There is much more in the article.

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth Consecutive Month Existing-home sales retreated in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slipped in three major U.S. regions and held steady in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in three regions and were unchanged in the South. seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million in January. Year-over-year, sales improved 2.0% (up from 4 million in January 2024). emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This was the fourth consecutive year-over-year increase after declining YoY every month for over 3 years. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.18 million in January from 1.14 million the previous month. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. Inventory was up 16.8% year-over-year (blue) in January compared to January 2024. The sales rate was below the consensus forecast.  I'll have more later.