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These are difficult realities without Hollywood cliche answers. Caregivers and the costs of caregiving don't get much attention. They're not part of the news flow, and the day-to-day grind of caregiving doesn't lend itself to the self-promotional zeitgeist of social media. Look at me, helping Mom on her walker is not going to score big numbers online. The burdens in human and financial terms are often crushing. These realities are generally obscured by taboos and Hollywood cliches: it's considered bad form to describe the burdens of caregiving, and anyone who dares to do so is quickly chided: "You're lucky your parent is still alive so you can spend quality time together." Meanwhile, back in the real world, 4 in 10 family caregivers rarely or never feel relaxed, according to a 2023 AARP survey, as an integral part of caregiving is being on constant alert for something untoward happening to the elderly person in one's care. The demographics are sobering: we're living longer,...
4 days ago

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More from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith

If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On?

Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an easily digestible construct. (I tease all this apart in my book The Mythology of Progress.) Being social animals, humans are also hard-wired to quickly form loyalties to groups and gravitate to one camp. Very few football fans (if any) have zero loyalty to any team and have zero emotional stake (i.e. there's no team they hope loses and none they hope will win). Uncertainty generates anxiety, and so we settle the real world's many uncertainties with internal certainty: an ideology is a simple sketch of how the world works, and we will defend this emotionally powerful construct even as evidence piles up that it doesn't accurately map all of the world's complexities. We will deny, rationalize and cherry-pick examples to "prove" our ideological certainties map the real world. The problem with radically simplified constructs like mythologies and ideologies is they cannot possibly map the world accurately as complex, interactive systems don't reduce down to a simplified construct. So every ideological construct ends up denying, rationalizing and cherry-picking examples to cover the inherent weaknesses of simplifying the world into bite-sized constructs. Our intense drive to establish and nurture loyalties leads to emotionally satisfying but often counter-productive convolutions, such as any enemy of my enemy is my friend and any friend of my enemy is my enemy. The problems with ideological constructs are magnified in tumultuous times as ideologies map a rapidly shrinking share of the real world. The internally coherent ideology drifts further into incoherence, and our natural defense is not to become more open-minded (i.e. actively embrace uncertainty and entertain new ideas) but to cling even harder to the simplified certainties that generate our internal sense of self and certainty. Since the faithful of competing ideologies are pursuing the same strategy to reduce anxiety, our loyalties clash with increasing intensity. That possibility that all the ideologies claiming to map the real world are increasingly detached from real-world dynamics doesn't occur to any true believer in any camp, for each believer remains confident (and when pushed, becomes ever more adamant) that their ideology is the one true construct that faithfully maps all of the real world's immense complexity. Such is the power of these internally coherent constructs that we don't see them as belief structures, we see them as the bedrock of truth. We don't recognize our ideological beliefs as beliefs open to question, and so when challenged, we respond defensively: Ideology? What ideology? What I'm saying is the truth. Yes, true to us, but an accurate account / map of all the world's complexity? No. To each believer in an ideology, the problem isn't that their ideology is not mapping the real world with sufficient accuracy to successfully navigate increasingly stormy seas. The problem is the other ideologies are obstructing our solutions, which are guaranteed to work if pursued with absolute purity. Compromises introduce fatal impurities and so of course they fail to fix what's broken. If only all those misguided souls abandoned their wrong-headed beliefs and joined our temple, then we'd clear up all the real-world problems in no time. But alas, the fools insist on clinging to their completely misguided faith in false gods. In this increasingly bitter environment, up becomes down and vice versa. Common sense--by definition, an attempt to map real world complexities based on practicalities rather than internally coherent constructs and loyalties--is tossed aside in favor of doubling down on the simplified precepts of the ideology. We end up arguing about internally coherent simplifications, none of which do a productive job of mapping the real world, and accusations and raw emotions replace rationality. We are raging, spittle flying, demanding everyone agree with us that 100 angels can dance on the head of pin, not 10 and not 1,000. How can we trust anyone who so adamantly clings to such wrong-headed ideas? We can't, so social trust plummets accordingly. Those without any ideological faith watch the emotional fireworks with stunned amazement. So you think Dallas should be nuked because you hate the Cowboys? Um, okay.... But does nuking the Cowboys really clear your team's path to the Super Bowl? The more the real world unravels into complex uncertainties, the greater our need to cling to certainties as the source of our internal security and hope. Rather than see the failure of all internally coherent but increasingly incoherent constructs to map the real world as the core problem, we see those with different ideological beliefs as the problem. If we managed to set all ideological beliefs and constructs aside for a brief moment, is there anything we might agree on? As a thought experiment, imagine an AI project tasked with providing solutions to the core threats to our future stability and security. Is there anything the program might suggest that we could agree on? How about accountability and transparency? Can we agree on the practical value of making those wielding power accountable for their actions and decisions? Can anyone contest the practicality of demanding an honest, transparent, accurate accounting of public funds and publicly traded private-sector enterprises? Can anyone contest that transparency is the foundation of sound decision-making? Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive. The irony here is the more the real world changes in ways that don't map simplistic ideologies, the greater our urgency to cling even harder to the simplicities we've invested with our identity and loyalty, and the stronger our instinct to lash out at anyone who disagrees with us, as if their disagreement is the problem, rather than the real-world complexities that no simple construct can map with any functional utility. Rather than nuking Dallas, maybe finding some sort of practical, common-sense middle ground might be the wiser course, even though it goes against every fiber of our hard-wired instincts to circle the wagons to defend the one true construct and declare those who disagree as the problem. My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Cheryl A. ($50), for your much-appreciated generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.   Thank you, Steven R ($50), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, NeilHrab ($50), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.   Thank you, Alexander H. ($7/month), for your splendidly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.

6 days ago 5 votes
Three Ways to Restore Housing Affordability

The choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable speculative asset in the global financialization casino. It can't be both. We tend to think of housing becoming unaffordable as a matter of land prices, zoning and the cost of 2X4s, but it's fundamentally a matter of values. Subscriber John summarized this in an insightful comment on Substack: "For me, this issue is a reflection of the values of our culture. 1. Lack of value placed on community means that a house is primarily a financial asset, not a home. 2. Lack of valuing community, means that we have not supported local business / industry and allowed these to be centralized or outsourced. 3. Lack of valuing self-sufficiency means that the only way we can view a house as an asset is when it increases in value. How much income does your house generate every month? (even if you count that income in tomatoes). Most of the housing being built is nothing more than boxes with a roof no matter how fancy the box. There is no awareness of how that housing is a part of the ecology that it is built in." This boils down to a simple choice: either housing is shelter for the citizenry, or it's just another asset class to be snapped up for private profit / gain by global capital. Choose one. This is one of the many pernicious consequences of glorifying Financialization as the most important dynamic in our economy and society. Once an economy has been financialized, everything becomes a commodity in the global marketplace to be bought and sold as an interchangeable asset. A flat in Bangkok, a flat in Barcelona, a flat in Miami: they're all the same to global capital, which includes trillions of dollars of non-U.S. wealth sloshing around seeking profitable places to park surplus capital, and domestic wealth doing the same thing, moving wealth around interchangeable assets to maximize private gain. This is the iron logic of Financialization and Globalization: housing is just another asset class to exploit. What effect the tsunami of wealth has on the communities being shredded is of zero interest to non-resident owners, corporations and speculators. Buying up houses to rent as short-term vacation rentals (STVRs), or simply left empty is just like buying a corporate bond: you move your capital around to maximize private gains, there's no difference between housing, shares in a mining company, bonds or any other financial commodity. This is how you end up with entire residential buildings having only a few residents, as 90+% of the owners don't live there, they just own the flat or house as a place to safely park surplus capital or visit a few days of the year on vacation. This is a global reality that anyone can observe who cares to open their eyes. Is housing shelter for citizens or is it a commodity asset one buys for profit as a mini-hotel? In popular tourist areas, consequential percentages of the housing has been snapped up by the wealthy as STVRs, short-term rental housing, the vast majority of which are owned not by hosts who live in the house as their sole residence but by absentee hosts who live half a world away and who have zero interest in the locale or community their interchangeable rental happens to be in. Restrictions on new housing serve the self-serving interests profiting from locking down the status quo. Anything that might negatively affect valuations is resisted. This urge to pull the ladder up behind us is natural, but is it fair to the generations behind us? As for all the restrictions, regulations and permitting--has anyone looked at this mass of costs with fresh eyes, asking if it's truly serving the citizenry? Or can much of it be stripped away as bureaucratic clutter or lobbying imposed by self-serving interests? We need to ask cui bono-- to whose benefit? Everyone is for solutions to housing unaffordability that don't diminish the value of their house. But the price is the problem. As I explained in Housing: The Foundations of the Middle Class Are Crumbling, turning housing into just another table in the financialization casino has inflated a bubble of unprecedented proportions that has distorted not just affordability but the fabric of society. Those who bought homes long ago are now wealthy not from genius but simply from timing. Buying in before the bubble inflated has generated generational and regional divides of the haves and the have-nots that are corrosive to the economy and society. Let's start with housing affordability. It's in the basement. The generations who bought homes 25 or more years ago have accumulated most of the wealth. When houses increase in value ten-fold while wages rise by a third, this is the result: Here's the National Case Shiller Housing Index. I've added long-term trendlines to clarify the two housing bubbles inflated by rampant financialization. A return to the upper trendline would require a 40% drop in current valuations, and a return to the lower trendline would require a 50% decline. Since financialization inflated housing to unaffordable heights, the only way to restore affordability is to eliminate the perverse incentives and distortions of financialization by taking these steps to return housing to sheltering the citizenry: 1. Impose a national ban on all short-term vacation rentals except those hosted by full-time owner-occupants. Those caught cheating would be fined $10,000 per violation (i.e. each rental to a new vacationer), with no upper limit. I know all the rationalizations, hut here's the thing: if you want to own and operate a mini-hotel, go build one in a resort / commercial zone. Residential housing is for residents, not a place for global capital to park surplus wealth or stripmine for private gain. Those full-time owner-occupants who want to rent out a room in their house to vacationers, that's fine. 2. Impose national limits on non-resident ownership of housing. An outright total ban on non-resident ownership of housing would be best, but if that's politically impossible, then requirements for residency would be the next best thing: if the owner leaves the home empty for 6 months or longer, a $100,000 fee is imposed annually. Anyone caught cheating would be fined the current value of the home. Once again, the choice is simple: housing is either shelter for citizens, or it's just another interchangeable speculative asset in the global financialization casino. It can't be both. Rationalizing excuses that it can serve both is why the few profiting from the rationalizations are so desperate to obscure this simple, fundamental choice. The third solution is to open the locked doors of zoning, planning and industry standards to new types of housing that would be unconventional but affordable. Every locale will have to wrestle with the forces of keeping the status quo locked down and the need to loosen restrictions and free up experimentation in housing. There isn't one-size-fits-all; every community will have to establish what works best for their economy and populace. One system builds communities, another destroys them. Take your pick, but choose wisely. My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Cheryl N. ($100), for your outrageously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.   Thank you, Jerry K. ($100), for your outrageously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership. Thank you, Lindsay M. ($70), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.   Thank you, Riderslb123 ($70), for your splendidly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.

a week ago 6 votes
Housing: The Foundations of the Middle Class Are Crumbling

Bottom line: with the loss of predictability, we've also lost any sense of future financial security. Home ownership has been the foundation of middle-class stability and security for so long that it defines middle-class status as much as income. From the end of World War II in 1945 on, the deal was simple: buy a house and you'll build equity that's even better than a savings account because you get the tax break of deducting mortgage interest and you get a roof over your head at a cost that's equal to or even lower than renting a house. Once you've paid off the mortgage, the costs of ownership drop, enabling a secure retirement. Every one of these assumptions has either crumbled or is now in doubt. A recent report in The Guardian sketches out the forces undermining housing as the source of security: 'I feel trapped': how home ownership has become a nightmare for many Americans Scores in the US say they're grappling with raised mortgage and loan interest rates and exploding insurance premiums. "I've come to view home ownership and healthcare as destabilizing forces in my life," said Bernie, a 45-year-old network engineer from Minneapolis. To finance owning his and his wife's $300,000 home and saving for the future, the couple was foregoing medical and dental treatment of any kind and cutting back on expenses everywhere, he said, despite a pre-tax household income of more than $250,000. Let's break down what's changed: 1. The non-mortgage costs of ownership are no longer predictable or affordable. For decades, the cost to insure one's home was modest and predictable, not changing much year to year. Now that insurers are losing billions of dollars as a result of increasingly extreme weather events, rates are rising even in places outside flood, fire and hurricane zones. Insurance rates are doubling or tripling in a few years, and insurers are leaving markets entirely or increasing the deductible that must be paid by the owners before insurance kicks in, and reducing the coverage. Property taxes are soaring in many locales. Property taxes were another cost that was relatively modest and predictable. Those conditions no longer apply in many locales: local governments are jacking up property taxes, and / or soaring home valuations are pushing taxes up to nosebleed levels. (I just looked up the annual property tax on a friend's house in California: north of $18,000 a year. And no, it's not a mansion in Malibu, and he bought it 20 years ago.) The costs of home repairs and maintenance are also skyrocketing. The average age of homes in the U.S. is around 40 years, but closer to 50 years in slow-growth states. As the quality of materials and construction have slowly declined, even houses that are 25 years old or less may require costly repairs--especially if construction defects were undiscovered until major damage had been done. Routine work such as trimming large trees that pose risks to houses now cost a small fortune. The Guardian article noted estimates for a new roof of $60,000, a sum that equals the construction cost of an entire new house two generations ago. Eye-watering costs of materials are now the norm. Again, the major changes are not just in costs, but in the loss of predictability. What was modest in cost was not just modest, it was predictable. Now the costs are far higher and future costs cannot be assumed to be affordable. 2. Mortgage costs are also higher, and there's no guarantee interest rates will fall back to 3.5% mortgage rates. As this chart illustrates, the cost of servicing today's mortgages is significantly higher than in years past. 3. Those who locked in low mortgage rates are trapped in their current homes, as they can't afford to move and pay interest rates that are 50% to 100% higher than the low rates they secured years ago. The Federal Reserve intervened massively in the private mortgage market in the post 2008 era, effectively socializing the mortgage market as the means to push mortgage rates down to encourage "growth." The Fed's intervention helped inflate Housing Bubble #2, just as the subprime excesses of the early 2000s helped inflate Housing Bubble #1. These distortions were intended to fuel home buying, but they also fueled massive increases in housing valuations. 4. The total costs of ownership--the monthly nut including mortgage and other costs--now exceeds the peak in Housing Bubble #1. Buying a house now is not a guaranteed pathway to financial security, it's a wager that valuations will continue to soar ever higher, generating capital gains that will offset the decades of higher costs of ownership. 5. The triple-whammy of soaring valuations, mortgage rates and other costs of ownership has made housing unaffordable in many locales. By any measure, housing affordability has declined to levels that equal or exceed the trough of Housing Bubble #1. The Case Shiller National Housing Index offers a snapshot of Housing Bubble #2. 6. Land, materials and labor are no longer cheap. In traditional economics, the high costs of housing can be reduced by reducing demand or increasing supply. Increasing supply at affordable prices is far more challenging now than in the postwar decades. The easy-to-build land was built out long ago, and high-rise condominiums come with higher construction costs and the uncertainties of common-area expenses, which in some cases skyrocket to equal or exceed the costs of ownership. Proponents of building more housing in urban / suburban areas--YIMBYs--yes in my back yard--face hurdles of geography, aging infrastructure, parking, and the high costs of insurance, mortgages, materials and labor, along with many restrictive zoning and planning regulations designed to maintain the status quo. As for reducing demand: the population of the U.S. was 265 million in 1995, and it's now 345 million: an increase of 80 million people, roughly the same as the entire population of Germany (83 million). 7. The costs of housing have opened generational and regional divides. Boomers and Gen-Xers who bought homes decades ago in the 1990s or early 2000s locked in much lower purchase prices and had multiple opportunities to refinance mortgages at lower rates as the Fed interventions pushed rates down. Recent buyers have no equivalent set of built-in advantages. Regional divides are increased. A modest home purchased in a middle-class urban area decades ago has increased 10-fold in some areas and not even kept up with inflation in others. The winners are now sitting on a million dollars in equity, a windfall the less fortunate did not reap. As the urban winners cash in their equity and move to desirable towns, they quickly bid up housing to the point local residents can no longer afford to buy a home in their hometown. And since the wealthy also snap up housing as investment properties--short-term vacation rentals--households that would be considered middle-class by income are doomed to being renters. "Middle class" is no longer middle-class, it's a seat in the casino that most exit as losers. 8. Renting is no longer a cheaper option. Rents have soared along with home prices, and once again, the predictability of future costs has vanished: rents can increase 30% overnight, just as insurance and property taxes can leap up far beyond anyone's projections. Bottom line: with the loss of predictability, we've also lost any sense of future financial security. Buying a house is now a wager: a wager that the costs of ownership won't stair-step up to eat us alive, and a wager that valuations will continue to rise, offsetting the high costs of ownership with future capital gains. Should Housing Bubble #2 pop--and all bubbles eventually pop--then homeowners will be dealt a future of ever-higher costs of ownership even as their equity diminishes. Those sitting on a wealth of equity now may find the assumption that this equity is predictably permanent is itself a wager. The middle class was fundamentally defined by predictable financial security and social stability. Now everything is a wager with unknowable odds. Rather than being a source of stability, housing is now a source of instability for many--and potentially for every homeowner, should costs of ownership continue increasing as Housing Bubble #2 pops. My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Glenn B. ($70), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.   Thank you, Dermot W. ($7/month), for your superbly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Dan M. ($70), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.   Thank you, Thomas1760 ($70), for your splendidly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.

a week ago 7 votes
When Markets Misbehave

Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the soundness of the hull and the level of self-reinforcing hubris. When Benoit Mandelbrot's book The (Mis)behavior of Markets was published in 2004, it was a revelation for many of us. I remember sitting in my car in a parking lot, unwilling to tear myself away from reading it. Here's the super-short summary: from time to time markets crash for no visible reason. The internal dynamics of market structures are fractal, and one feature of this structure is that markets break down unpredictably. After the fact, we seek an external trigger--a Federal Reserve "policy error," inflation fears, etc.--but these post-mortem explanations gloss over the cause, which is the inherent instability of market structures. Markets can trundle along for years appearing to be stable and controllable. Any spot of bother can be corrected with a reduction in interest rates or quantitative easing. Everything is known and controllable. But this control is illusory. Out of the blue, markets stop behaving. They misbehave, and possibly quite badly. Nature offers many examples. The seas are relatively calm, and suddenly an enormous rogue wave appears. At that point, the condition of the ship matters. A sound craft will survive the rogue wave, the leaky, rotten hulk won't. Human hubris also matters. If the passengers and crew of the hulk have been persuaded by each other's happy talk that the ship is rock-solid, then its breaking apart will come as a nasty shock. In the current zeitgeist, the consensus is the mighty ship of the stock market is a superliner. No matter how big the rogue wave, the ship will handle it easily. But what if the consensus is wrong, and we're all passengers on a rotting hulk gussied up with new paint? What if the consensus isn't based on the soundness of the hull, but on the self-reinforcing happy-talk around the dessert cart and bar? The consensus is convinced the ship is unsinkable, and so the guaranteed path to profit is to "buy the dip" after the rogue wave has passed. This guarantee is not actually causal; it's recency bias, as "buy the dip" has worked like magic for 15 years. Nobody's interested in leaving the first class casino to get in a lifeboat when guaranteed profits beckon. The question is: how sound is the hull? Who's actually checking, and who's just parroting happy-talk? Can we even tell the difference? In a euphoric speculative bubble, the answer is "no." In a speculative bubble, "buy the dip" is all you need to know to win big, and continue winning big. So who cares about rogue waves and rotten hulls? I often refer to this chart of the dot-com bubble because this happened not in some pre-technology era but in the technology-obsessed present. I attended Comdex in Las Vegas in the peak euphoria, and attendees were busy trading stocks online amidst the crowd. Every bubble is forever until it is no more. Notice the numerous sharp spikes higher as the crowd "bought the dip." The initial crash was bought with all four feet, which was followed by a secondary crash to a new low, which was immediately bought, generating a euphoric spike that signaled "all clear, buy buy buy!" until it too rolled over. This was followed by one last manic "buy the dip" which resulted in a double-top. Once that petered out, a multi-year stair-step down began. The index eventually bottomed after losing about 80% of its peak valuation. Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the soundness of the hull and the level of self-reinforcing hubris. My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF) The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF) Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF). A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. Thank you, Reynold W. ($70), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.   Thank you, Bob F. ($70), for your superbly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Farouk B. ($70), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.   Thank you, Ed W. ($7/month), for your splendidly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html for the full posts and archives.

a week ago 11 votes

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Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales

20 hours ago 1 votes
Longreads + Open Thread

Personal Essays, Lies, Popes, GPT-4.5, Banks, Buy-and-Hold, Advanced Portfolio Management, Trade, Karp

22 hours ago 1 votes
Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025

The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, March 11th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February. 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the BLS. ----- Wednesday, March 12th ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. Consumer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% Year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY. ----- Thursday, March 13th ----- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 221 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI. Q4 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve. ----- Friday, March 14th ----- 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for March).

yesterday 1 votes
Two Kinds of News Business

Plus! AI as an Interface; Post-Post; Meta-Moderation; Custom Finance; Voice and Search

2 days ago 2 votes
Comments on February Employment Report

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%. Earlier: February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 years old participation rate was unchanged in February at 83.5% from 83.5% in January. The 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.5% from 80.7% the previous month. Both are down from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium. Average Hourly Wages The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).   There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in February.    Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report: The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million in February. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs." The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94 million from 4.48 million in January.  This is above the pre-pandemic levels. alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 8.0% from 7.5% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Unemployed over 26 Weeks This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million. Job Streak Through February 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 50 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).   Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks Year EndedStreak, Months 12020113 2N/A501 3199048 4200746 5197945 6 tie194333 6 tie198633 6 tie200033 9196729 10199525 1Currrent Streak Summary: The headline number was decent.

2 days ago 1 votes