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The key report this week is February CPI. ----- Monday, March 10th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, March 11th ----- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February. 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the BLS. ----- Wednesday, March 12th ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. Consumer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% Year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY. ----- Thursday, March 13th ----- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 221 thousand last week. Producer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI. Q4 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve. ----- Friday, March 14th ----- 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for March).
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data." So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations. COVID Metrics NowWeek AgoGoal Deaths per Week735878≤3501 1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023. Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2023 (low of 314 deaths), I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are once again below the goal. Weekly deaths are now decreasing following the winter pickup. And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of March 6th: This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths. This has moving down recently. Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Low", down from "High" three weeks ago, according to the CDC.
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in February compared to January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) decreased to 204.1, which reflects a 0.1% increase from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index drove the monthly move for the index, as non-seasonally adjusted values rose for the month. The non-adjusted price in February increased by 1.4% compared to January, moving the unadjusted average price up 0.8% year over year. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in February (seasonally adjusted) and were up 0.1% YoY.
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.4% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index now sits at 6.9 percent, the highest reading in the history of that monthly data series, which goes back to the start of 2017. After a historic tightening in 2021, multifamily occupancy has been slowly but consistently easing for over three years amid an influx of new inventory. 2024 saw the most new apartment completions since the mid-1980s, and with nearly 800 thousand units still in the construction pipeline, the supply boom has runway to continue into 2025. Realtor.com: 18th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents In the first month of 2025, the median asking rent across the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas picked up slightly to $1,703, from $1,695 in December 2024, but it remains down 0.2% from one year ago. This marks the 18th consecutive month in which rents have fallen year over year. This is much more in the article.
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to be in a good place. The labor market is solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal. At the Federal Reserve, we are intently focused on the dual-mandate goals given to us by Congress: maximum employment and stable prices. Recent Economic Data Economic growth The labor market Inflation Monetary Policy Conclusion Before I conclude, I will note that at our last FOMC meeting, we began our second five-year review of our monetary policy framework. We will consider changes to our consensus statement (Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy) and to our communications as part of this review. The consensus statement articulates our framework for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of the goals assigned to us by Congress. We will consider lessons of the past five years and adapt our approach, where appropriate, to best serve the American people, to whom we are accountable. The 2 percent longer-run inflation goal will be retained and is not a focus of the review. This public review will be familiar to those who followed our process five years ago. We will hold outreach events around the country involving a wide range of parties, including Fed Listens events. We are open to new ideas and critical feedback. We will host a research conference in Washington in May. Our intent is to wrap up the review by late summer.
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From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in February compared to January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) decreased to 204.1, which reflects a 0.1% increase from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index drove the monthly move for the index, as non-seasonally adjusted values rose for the month. The non-adjusted price in February increased by 1.4% compared to January, moving the unadjusted average price up 0.8% year over year. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in February (seasonally adjusted) and were up 0.1% YoY.
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The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%. Earlier: February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 years old participation rate was unchanged in February at 83.5% from 83.5% in January. The 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.5% from 80.7% the previous month. Both are down from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium. Average Hourly Wages The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in February. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report: The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million in February. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs." The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94 million from 4.48 million in January. This is above the pre-pandemic levels. alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 8.0% from 7.5% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Unemployed over 26 Weeks This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million. Job Streak Through February 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 50 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks Year EndedStreak, Months 12020113 2N/A501 3199048 4200746 5197945 6 tie194333 6 tie198633 6 tie200033 9196729 10199525 1Currrent Streak Summary: The headline number was decent.
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The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December, revised. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Both exports and imports increased in January. Both imports and exports have generally increased recently. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. The surge in imports in January happened as some importers were avoiding the coming tariffs.
