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From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar. [Jan 24th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final sales estimates unchanged, each at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Jan 24th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.0 percent on January 17, unchanged from January 16 after rounding. [Jan 17th estimate]
From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay content). Brief excerpt: While demand in the middle of the month was negatively impacted by extreme weather conditions across most of the country, with a week remaining in January there is upside to the outlook. On the flipside, there could be pause among some consumers, as they wait to see how the apparent revamping of federal policies and institutions by the new administration plays out. Regardless, sales are tracking to their fourth straight increase in January. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for January (Red). On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 15.6 million SAAR, would be down 7.1% from last month, and up 3.8% from a year ago.
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Sales in December (4.24 million SAAR) were up 2.2% from the previous month and were 9.3% above the December 2023 sales rate. This was the third consecutive month with a year-over-year increase after declining YoY every month for over 3 years. Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. Sales increased 9.3% year-over-year compared to December 2023. On an annual basis, existing home sales were at 4.06 million in 2024, down from 4.09 million in 2023, and the lowest level since 1995. There is much more in the article.
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascended 2.2% in December Existing-home sales climbed in December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and slipped in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales accelerated in all four regions. On an annual basis, existing-home sales (4.06 million) declined to the lowest level since 1995, while the median price reached a record high of $407,500 in 2024. seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million in December. Year-over-year, sales swelled 9.3% (up from 3.88 million in December 2023). emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This was the third consecutive year-over-year increase after declining YoY every month for over 3 years. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.15 million in December from 1.33 million the previous month. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. Inventory was up 16.2% year-over-year (blue) in December compared to December 2023. The sales rate was above the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Click on graph for larger image. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 24% YoY in December, and exports were down 6% YoY. This was a very strong July through December period as importers were likely stockpiling goods prior to the increase in tariffs.
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Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Click on graph for larger image. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 24% YoY in December, and exports were down 6% YoY. This was a very strong July through December period as importers were likely stockpiling goods prior to the increase in tariffs.
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Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Sales in December (4.24 million SAAR) were up 2.2% from the previous month and were 9.3% above the December 2023 sales rate. This was the third consecutive month with a year-over-year increase after declining YoY every month for over 3 years. Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. Sales increased 9.3% year-over-year compared to December 2023. On an annual basis, existing home sales were at 4.06 million in 2024, down from 4.09 million in 2023, and the lowest level since 1995. There is much more in the article.