At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and the December trade deficit​. ----- Monday, February 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.5, up from 49.3 in December. 10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending. All day: Light vehicle sales for January. Sales were at 16.8 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Wards expects vehicle sales to decrease to 15.6 million SAAR in January. Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS). ----- Tuesday, February 4th ----- 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December from the BLS. ----- Wednesday, February 5th ----- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in January, up from 122,000 added in December. 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for December from the Census Bureau. ISM Services Index for January. Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS). ----- Thursday, February 6th ----- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 214 thousand from 207 thousand last week. ----- Friday, February 7th ----- 8:30 AM: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 170,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for January).

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations. COVID Metrics  NowWeek AgoGoal Deaths per Week🚩773628≤3501 1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023. Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again - and at a minimum, I'll continue to post through the Winter.   Weekly deaths have been increasing, and weekly deaths are well above the low of 313 in early June 2024. And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of January 30th: This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths. Nationally COVID in wastewater is "High" according to the CDC.

From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP tracking estimate at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate at +2.3%. We launched our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate at +2.3%, in line with the advance reading. [Jan 31st estimate] emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is 2.9 percent on January 31. The initial estimate of last quarter's real GDP growth rate released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on January 30 was 2.3 percent, the same as the final GDPNow model nowcast after rounding. [Jan 31st estimate]

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.54% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in December. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 4.0% in December, up from up 3.9% YoY in November. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023. ... For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 6 of the 7 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida (and Florida has 14 of the 30 cities with the largest price declines). There is much more in the article!