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After the positive reception of my cards article “Kelly can’t fail” I decided to share more of the methods used to characterize card counting. So, I’d like to share my new article on the statistics of drawing cards. This note relates the distribution of draw cards (which can seem scare) […]
2 weeks ago

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More from Win Vector LLC

Don’t think of a basketball player, or search engines don’t even support “not”

In my opinion we have been accepting poor interfaces and results from search engines for quite a while. This may be a small part of why the newer Large Language Models (LLMs) / Generative AIs look so good. The large language models at least implement a usable approximation of what […]

2 days ago 4 votes
Best Before Dates by Bass

I was searching for one last real world example for my upcoming video talk March 13th on time series forecasting. Hope to see you there! Or reach out to Win Vector LLC for custom training! I had the seemingly harmless thought: “Let’s look at Stack Overflow trends“. In particular their […]

a week ago 7 votes
Trying to Describe 2024 AI Premises

I can’t resist adding yet another commentary on the state of 2024 AI (and, yes I know it is now 2025 and DeepSeek is relevant!). The 2024 AI money machine appears to have depended on several premises: The product would be valuable. The product would be very expensive to reproduce. […]

a month ago 9 votes
Hat Color Puzzles

Introduction Theoretical computer scientists tend to love a class of problems I call “hat color” puzzles. There seem to be only a few of these puzzles, yet they feel like examples or tests for a large and important class of methodologies. I’d like to introduce a few of these marvels. […]

a month ago 10 votes

More in AI

Speaking things into existence

Expertise in a vibe-filled world of work

9 hours ago 2 votes
Response to Scott Alexander on Imprisonment

Back in November 2024, Scott Alexander asked: Do longer prison sentences reduce crime?

7 hours ago 1 votes
Don’t think of a basketball player, or search engines don’t even support “not”

In my opinion we have been accepting poor interfaces and results from search engines for quite a while. This may be a small part of why the newer Large Language Models (LLMs) / Generative AIs look so good. The large language models at least implement a usable approximation of what […]

2 days ago 4 votes
The Manus Marketing Madness

While at core there is ‘not much to see,’ it is, in two ways, a sign of things to come.

2 days ago 2 votes
Urgent warning: Black Mirror has entered the United States, with AI as its handmaiden

AI as a smoke screen to cover for authoritarian actions

2 days ago 2 votes