Commoncog
Learning About Moats the Hard Way
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end...
14 hours ago
How even legendary conglomerator Henry Singleton got caught out by competitive arbitrage at the end of his career.
Vitalik Buterin's...
Some reflections on the Bitcoin block size war
yesterday
Citation Needed
Cryptocurrency companies have raised over $115 million to influence US elections this cycle, and...
As election season kicks into high gear, we need to watch how cryptocurrency companies are...
2 days ago
As election season kicks into high gear, we need to watch how cryptocurrency companies are influencing US politics.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #201
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity,...
3 days ago
Daily Journal, The Oresteia, Elon's compensation, TSMC, Banks in disguise, Reading about stupidity, Zweig on Ben Graham's continued relevance, 3G Capital, Morgan Housel, Christopher Tsai
The Rational Walk
The Oresteia
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery,...
3 days ago
The Oresteia is a trilogy produced by Aeschylus in 458 BC. Trapped in a cycle of lawless savagery, mankind finds its way toward due process and justice.
Vitalik Buterin's...
Layer 2s as cultural extensions of Ethereum
3 days ago
Moneyness
Monetagium
An English penny minted by William the Conqueror, who brought monetagium to England. Source: History...
4 days ago
An English penny minted by William the Conqueror, who brought monetagium to England. Source: History in Coins
The way that a modern mafia protection racket works is the mafia starts doing very bad things to regular folks, say you and your business. To stop the damage, you pay...
The Rational Walk
Daily Journal: The Canary in the Coal Mine?
Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence....
a week ago
Daily Journal and Berkshire Hathaway have little in common aside from Charlie Munger's influence. Recent development at Daily Journal raise concerns.
Bits about Money
Guys what is wrong with ACATS
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the...
a week ago
Ever transferred assets between brokerages? Impressive, terrifying machinations happened in the background. No cats were harmed.
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax Hike: Sell Now or Hold On? A Canadian Investor's Guide
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities....
a week ago
Canada's recent federal budget has sent ripples through the investment and real estate communities. A key change: a looming increase in capital gains tax on sizeable transactions. This has many wondering – should I sell assets before June 25th, 2024, to avoid the taxman's bite?...
Citation Needed
Privacy, human rights, and Tornado Cash
I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
a week ago
I am more worried about privacy than crypto crime.
Vitalik Buterin's...
How do layer 2s really differ from execution sharding?
a week ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #200
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks,...
a week ago
Jefferson's advice to his nephew, Inside a Baby Berkshire, Windows Copilot, Hot utility stocks, Appnesia, Stress and heart disease, Steve Jobs, Flying Cars, Dunkirk, Napoleon
Seeking Wisdom
What I Learned from The South Asian Health Solution and wearing a Continuous Glucose Monitor
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a...
a week ago
We all know avocados are healthy, and coke is bad. Yet we can’t help but gulp down a coke with a plate full of french fries. It takes an enormous amount of energy to break bad habits. I’ve broken bad habits under two conditions: (a) it’s a do-or-die situation, or (b) you have a...
Commoncog
Setting Up For The Second Half of 2024
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
a week ago
A new set of cases for two concept sequences, and the end of the Data Driven Series.
Citation Needed
Issue 58 – Threats to the stability and integrity of Ethereum
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's...
a week ago
The Justice Department worries about the stability of Ethereum, DCG tries to bilk their subsidiary's creditors, and Biden threatens a crypto veto.
The Rational Walk
Thomas Jefferson’s Advice to His Nephew
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on...
a week ago
Two letters from Thomas Jefferson to his nephew, Peter Carr, illustrate Jefferson's views on education, ethics, religion, and many other subjects.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #199
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's...
2 weeks ago
Daily Journal reduces leverage, iPad Pro vs. MacBooks, Independent platforms, Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, A long run perspective, the parent-therapy trap
Vitalik Buterin's...
The near and mid-term future of improving the Ethereum network's permissionlessness and...
2 weeks ago
Seeking Wisdom
Ruturaj Gaikwad, P-value, and Bayes’ Theorem
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is...
2 weeks ago
IPL is one of the greatest entertainments for a cricket lover like me. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) is my favorite team. Ruturaj Gaikwad, the new CSK captain for the IPL 2024 season, lost 10 out of 13 tosses: LLLLWLLLLLLWL. The probability of seeing the sequence LLLLWLLLLLLWL is...
The Rational Walk
Hesiod’s Works and Days
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it...
2 weeks ago
One of the oldest surviving books provides advice that is just as relevant to our lives today as it was 2,700 years ago.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #198
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How...
2 weeks ago
Thoughts on risk, Berkshire recap, Graham's first investment, Marks on debt, Electricity demand, How to spend your days, AI and productivity
Seeking Wisdom
A great investor is a great rejector
I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for...
2 weeks ago
I tend to grasp math concepts better from books written for other fields. Take linear algebra for example — I developed a stronger understanding and appreciation for it after reading the book Modeling Life. Similarly, the investing book What I Learned About Investing from Darwin...
FIRE v London
April ’24: Juggling cash as new UK tax year begins
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on...
2 weeks ago
The temperature in the Middle East got even hotter in April, with Israel and Iran trading attacks on each other’s sovereign buildings/territory. Somehow World War III has never really seemed in danger of breaking out but it is a reminder that only change is constant. Over in New...
Vitalik Buterin's...
Multidimensional gas pricing
3 weeks ago
The Rational Walk
Apple’s Dystopian iPad Video
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision...
3 weeks ago
When Steve Jobs spoke about the intersection of liberal arts and technology, he did not envision crushing symbols of art and culture.
Moneyness
Renovatio monetae
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of...
3 weeks ago
This silver pfennig from the Archbishopric of Magdeburg (1152-1192) was subject to a policy of renovatio monetae. Twice a year whoever held it had to bring it in to be changed for new coins at a rate of four old coins to three new coins. That suggests an annualized tax rate on...
Citation Needed
Issue 57 - I take deep breath and I get real high
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC...
3 weeks ago
Changpeng Zhao's sentencing, FOIA requests reveal past FBI investigations into Coinbase, and the SEC is on a Wells notice bender.
The Rational Walk
The Odyssey
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It...
3 weeks ago
Homer's epic poem tells the story of how Odysseus struggled to return home after the Trojan War. It is one of the greatest stories in history.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Q&A Session
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual...
3 weeks ago
Warren Buffett answered over thirty questions in a five hour marathon session in the first annual meeting after Charlie Munger's death.
The Rational Walk
In the Zone
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to...
4 weeks ago
Biohacking can be taken too far, but the intelligent use of modern technology has the potential to provide valuable insights about our health.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Linear Algebra
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life....
4 weeks ago
This is the 4th post in my series summarizing the key takeaways from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my previous posts first to gain a solid understanding on how to model dynamic systems. This post focuses on how linear algebra is employed in modeling dynamic...
Citation Needed
We can have a different web
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something...
a month ago
Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
balajis.com
Gil Duran Faked A Quote For the New Republic
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
a month ago
Then they stealth edited the piece. They knew they'd committed libel.
Bits about Money
The business of wallets
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around...
a month ago
How digital wallets work, and how payment costs drive a lot of product decisions inside and around them.
Vitalik Buterin's...
Binius: highly efficient proofs over binary fields
a month ago
The Rational Walk
The Dividend Signal
Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or...
a month ago
Mature technology companies are establishing regular quarterly dividends. Is this a positive or negative development for shareholders?
Citation Needed
Issue 56 – What are you gonna do, arrest me?
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto...
a month ago
The Binance CEO's sentencing draws near, and prosecutors have been busy chasing down other crypto criminals. Also, lawmakers take another stab at stablecoin regulation.
Commoncog
The Limits of Operational Excellence
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven,...
a month ago
An answer to a puzzle: why is that some businesses go down the Deming path, become data driven, achieve operational excellence, and die, and others acquire Process Power and win?
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Oscillation
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
a month ago
This is my 3rd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier posts first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium,...
Moneyness
Thoughts on the Tornado Cash defence and what happens when everyone adopts it
Payments companies are regularly punished for engaging in money laundering. MoneyGram, for instance,...
a month ago
Payments companies are regularly punished for engaging in money laundering. MoneyGram, for instance, has has to pay multiple fines. Western Union was famously busted in 2017. Meanwhile, Cash App is being probed as we speak for inadequate anti-money laundering controls.
In the...
Mazdak
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds : The Great Investment Debate
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual...
a month ago
For many investors, both seasoned and new, choosing between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds can be a head-scratcher. Both offer diversification, professional management options, and access to a variety of asset classes. However, they differ significantly in how they...
The Rational Walk
Free Articles!
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
a month ago
A selection of fifteen formerly paywalled articles
Citation Needed
AI isn't useless. But is it worth it?
AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
a month ago
AI can be kind of useful, but I'm not sure that a "kind of useful" tool justifies the harm.
Mazdak
Should You Rent or Buy a Home in Today's Market?
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more...
a month ago
In today's Canadian housing market, the age-old question of renting versus buying feels more pressing than ever. Soaring property values and rising interest rates have created a complex landscape, leaving many wondering: is homeownership still the golden ticket to building...
The Rational Walk
Paid Subscriptions
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
a month ago
The reasons behind my decision to discontinue paid subscriptions.
Commoncog
The Secret at the Heart of Continuous Improvement
Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart...
a month ago
Continuous Improvement sounds simple, even obvious. And yet there's a profound secret at its heart that doesn't seem to get talked about.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Equilibrium
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I...
a month ago
This is my 2nd post summarizing the key takeaways I got from reading the book Modeling Life. I recommend reading my earlier post first to get a good grounding on the foundations covered in the book. A system can exhibit three different types of behavior: equilibrium, oscillation,...
Citation Needed
Issue 55 – Halving a bad time
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed...
a month ago
The bitcoin "halving" looms, and that may not be as good news as coiners hope. Also, Terra committed fraud and Uniswap got a Wells notice.
The Rational Walk
Progressive is Firing on All Cylinders
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined...
a month ago
Progressive resumed aggressive growth in the first quarter of 2024 while reporting a strong combined ratio.
Moneyness
Why I'm in favor of financial illiteracy
I'm not a fan of mandatory investor education classes. The issue was brought up recently by former...
a month ago
I'm not a fan of mandatory investor education classes. The issue was brought up recently by former chair of FDIC, Sheila Bair, who sees such classes as ways to stop future FTX-style disasters.
The model of finance I've been using for many years is the fairly dismal dark forest...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #197
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence...
a month ago
Interest rates, Passive investing, Ben Graham as a young man, Daniel Kahneman, Ken Langone, Lawrence Cunningham, Reed Hastings, Steve Eisman
Commoncog
Introducing Xmrit
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to...
a month ago
Some free software to create, modify, experiment with and share XmR charts. Unlock the ability to become more data driven today.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Questions
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five...
a month ago
Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 annual meeting will be held in Omaha on May 4. This article includes five potential questions for the Q&A session.
Seeking Wisdom
Modeling Life: Foundations
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed...
a month ago
Herman Wouk was researching for a novel he planned to write about World War II. He interviewed several physicists at Caltech who had worked on the bomb, including Richard Feynman. After the interview, Feynman asked Wouk if he knew Calculus. “No,” said Wouk. To which Feynman...
The Rational Walk
The Iliad
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an...
a month ago
Homer's epic poem has much to teach us about human nature if we first take the time to gain an understanding of Greek mythology.
Citation Needed
"The Monkey Fraud": An interview with Ryder Ripps
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club...
a month ago
An interview with Ryder Ripps, a defendant in the Yuga Labs v. Ripps case about Bored Ape Yacht Club trademark infringement and racism.
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of...
a month ago
This post is a list of books that I read in the first quarter of 2024, most notably The Diary of Anne Frank, Endurance, Crime and Punishment, and the Iliad.
Mazdak
The 4% Rule: A Guide to Retirement Withdrawals, Not a Golden Ticket
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large....
a month ago
For many approaching retirement, the question of "how much can I safely withdraw?" looms large. Enter the 4% rule, a popular guideline that suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and adjust for inflation thereafter. But is it a guaranteed...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #196
Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on...
a month ago
Daniel Kahneman (1934 — 2024), Biglari Holdings, Classical education, Sports gambling, Ackman on Disney's proxy war, Lessons from Paul Graham, Dunbar's number
Citation Needed
Issue 54 – Cases continue
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two...
a month ago
Crypto-related litigation is in full swing, as the Terra civil fraud trial has kicked off and two other cases against crypto companies have survived motions to dismiss.
Mazdak
Canada's Housing Crisis: Is There a Way Out?
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out...
a month ago
Canada's housing market has become a national concern. Soaring prices have pushed homeownership out of reach for many, and even renters struggle to find affordable options. The pandemic exacerbated this pre-existing crisis, highlighting the urgent need for solutions. This article...
FIRE v London
Mar ’24: A towering influence
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would...
2 months ago
I’ve enjoyed March. I managed to enjoy a few days’ skiing, despite less snow than any of us would like, in the Austrian alps. Back at home, the sun has been getting stronger, and the evenings have been getting lighter – and now with Summer Time we will enjoy lovely late evenings...
Vitalik Buterin's...
Degen communism: the only correct political ideology
2 months ago
Moneyness
The effects of Russian sanctions as portrayed in YouTube videos
Last month American provocateur Tucker Carlson visited a Russian grocery store. Because it was...
2 months ago
Last month American provocateur Tucker Carlson visited a Russian grocery store. Because it was filled to the brim with food, Carlson claims that western sanctions placed on Russia aren't having an effect. "We've been told sanctions on Russia have had a devastating effect on its
...
The Rational Walk
Poor Charlie’s Almanack
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five...
2 months ago
My thoughts on the new edition with a focus on inconsistency avoidance, one of the twenty-five psychological tendencies that can cause human misjudgment.
Bits about Money
Anatomy of a credit card rewards program
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
2 months ago
Credit card rewards are mostly funded out of interchange, a fee paid by businesses to accept cards.
balajis.com
All It Takes Is All You Got
Your assets are the government's collateral.
2 months ago
Your assets are the government's collateral.
Citation Needed
25 years for Sam Bankman-Fried
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious...
2 months ago
"The judgment has to adequately reflect the seriousness of the crime, and this was a very serious crime."
Vitalik Buterin's...
What else could memecoins be?
2 months ago
Vitalik Buterin's...
Ethereum has blobs. Where do we go from here?
2 months ago
The Rational Walk
The Digest #195
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies,...
2 months ago
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview
Commoncog
Making Sense of Deming
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of...
2 months ago
A comprehensive summary of W. Edwards Deming's ideas, whose System of Profound Knowledge is one of the most powerful things you'll find on the Operations side of the business expertise triad. Read this, so you don't have to read multiple books to apply his ideas.
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried wants only six years for his "victimless" crime
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and...
2 months ago
Sam Bankman-Fried maintains that his crimes were victimless and resulted in zero losses, and therefore warrant only six years of imprisonment. Prosecutors argue that 40–50 years are justified.
The Rational Walk
Improving Disclosure for Public Companies
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing...
2 months ago
The Securities and Exchange Commission could improve disclosure and transparency by implementing three simple proposals.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices
The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire...
2 months ago
The real estate brokerage industry will change due to a settlement in a key lawsuit. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices was not a party to the agreement but its business model will still be affected.
The Rational Walk
Inflation Expectations
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers...
2 months ago
There's no reason for anyone to care what I think about inflation and interest rates, but readers should pay close attention to Warren Buffett's statements and actions.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #194
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation,...
2 months ago
Poor Charlie's Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons of history
Moneyness
How PayPal can use stablecoins to avoid AML requirements and make big profits
There's a new financial loophole in town: stablecoins. Stablecoins are dollar, yen, or pound-based...
2 months ago
There's a new financial loophole in town: stablecoins. Stablecoins are dollar, yen, or pound-based payments platforms that are built using crypto database technology.
Financial institutions are always looking for loopholes to game the system. Typically this has meant avoiding...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Proxy Statement
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in...
2 months ago
This article contains commentary on Berkshire Hathaway's latest proxy statement focusing on skin in the game, repurchase activity, and stock based compensation.
The Rational Walk
Real Estate Adventures
Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with...
2 months ago
Buying real estate can be intimidating and complicated. This article describes two experiences with realtors, one positive and one negative.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s Uncertain Future
Warren Buffett's concerns about the regulatory climate for the utility industry has negative...
2 months ago
Warren Buffett's concerns about the regulatory climate for the utility industry has negative implications for PacifiCorp and BHE's other subsidiaries.
Mazdak
Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of Property in Canada: A Comprehensive Guide
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is...
2 months ago
Selling a property can be a significant financial event, and understanding the tax implications is crucial. This article delves into capital gains tax in Canada, explaining how it works, how it's calculated, and how to potentially reduce your tax burden.
Moneyness
Are the sanctions on Russia working?
I very much enjoy economist Robin Brooks's tweets, especially his charts showing how sanctions...
2 months ago
I very much enjoy economist Robin Brooks's tweets, especially his charts showing how sanctions imposed on Russia have affected regional trade patterns. While direct trade between Europe and Russia has collapsed thanks to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, the...
Citation Needed
Issue 53 – Choose rich
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
2 months ago
Euphoria has risen along with crypto prices, but nothing has changed from the last bubble.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #193
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect...
2 months ago
Dynamic pricing, Greenback emissions, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Working too hard, Ozempic's effect on the brain, Race and cardiovascular disease, Inflation's effect on insurance pricing
Mazdak
Stock Buybacks: A Popular Yet Polarizing Practice
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate...
2 months ago
Stock buybacks have become a prevalent practice in the financial world, but they also generate significant debate. This article dives into the concept of buybacks, explores their motivations, and examines the arguments for and against them. What are Stock Buybacks?
Commoncog
Members Preview: An Easier Way to Create XmR Charts
Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
2 months ago
Early access to some software we've built to make XmR charts more accessible.
The Rational Walk
Burlington Northern Santa Fe — 2023 Results
Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
2 months ago
Warren Buffett is concerned about the performance of Berkshire's railroad
Mazdak
The Pros and Cons of Buying Real Estate Through a Corporation in Canada
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real...
2 months ago
This article explores the advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation to purchase real estate in Canada. It's important to note that this strategy is generally more complex and may not be suitable for everyone. When Owning Real Estate Personally Might Be Better
Mazdak
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Progress Seen as Insufficient
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious...
2 months ago
The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to maintain its key interest rate at 5% today, signaling a cautious stance on inflation despite recent declines. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged progress in bringing inflation down to 2.9% in January, but emphasized the need for continued...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #192
Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS,...
2 months ago
Unpopular large companies, Dopamine culture, Buffett's cheapest stock, Investing in vertical SaaS, The bear case for China, Chris Davis, Michael Mauboussin
Moneyness
It's time to get rid of "crypto"
Call me a pedant, but I'm not a fan of the word "crypto". It may have been a serviceable category...
2 months ago
Call me a pedant, but I'm not a fan of the word "crypto". It may have been a serviceable category back in 2011 when there was only one type of crypto thingy – bitcoin. But it's ceased to be a meaningful term and, if anything, it causes a regression in understanding.
Source:...
Seeking Wisdom
Stay the course
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with...
2 months ago
I spend a couple of weeks every February keeping up with my investments, timing it to coincide with the release of Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. I found something interesting while performing this ritual this time. I came across Aswath Damodaran’s website, where he has...
FIRE v London
Feb ’24: Envyidia
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations...
2 months ago
I’ve had quite a lot of culture to enjoy in February. Aside from some travel for the Six Nations rugby, I’ve been to two shows – one in London’s Royal Opera House and one on the south coast. Both events were either full or practically full. Covid feels fully behind us now. But...
Moneyness
Why my favorite coinage is Byzantine coinage
What do I like about Byzantine coinage?
Most people probably admire the Byzantine solidus, a gold...
3 months ago
What do I like about Byzantine coinage?
Most people probably admire the Byzantine solidus, a gold coin that maintained its weight and purity for over 600 years, which is quite remarkable for a coin. The solidus was exported all over the world, including to Europe, which lacked...
Bits about Money
Financial systems take a holiday
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's...
3 months ago
Ever wondered about what happens when banks are closed or why some apps have operating hours? It's fascinating.
Citation Needed
Issue 52 – I am Sam's low-level culpability
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried...
3 months ago
Bitcoin prices are spiking. Are we in for another round of crypto mania? Also, Sam Bankman-Fried doesn't want to go to jail for 100 years.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #191
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel...
3 months ago
The dopamine loop, Berkshire Hathaway's annual report recap, Tom Gayner's letter to Markel shareholders, Investing lessons from Earnest Shackleton, Google's Gemini AI goes off the rails
The Rational Walk
Too Clever by Half!
The temptation to trade in the stock market can be overwhelming, especially when prices are moving...
3 months ago
The temptation to trade in the stock market can be overwhelming, especially when prices are moving quickly. It's useful to ask, "What would Charlie Munger say?"
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s 2023 Results — Overview
This article provides a 30,000 foot overview of Berkshire Hathaway's results for 2023 with a focus...
3 months ago
This article provides a 30,000 foot overview of Berkshire Hathaway's results for 2023 with a focus on the components net operating earnings.
Citation Needed
Become a Wikipedian in 30 minutes
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be...
3 months ago
What will we do if Wikipedia falls to the type of AI-generated garbage that seems to be proliferating on the web? The number one thing you can do is learn to edit, and I will walk you through how to get started in only 30 minutes.
The Rational Walk
Will Berkshire Hathaway Pay a Dividend?
Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well...
3 months ago
Investors have been debating the dividend question for decades. So far, shareholders have been well served by Warren Buffett's reluctance to send out dividend checks.
Moneyness
The first round of U.S. secondary sanctions on Russia is working
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing...
3 months ago
Turkish banks halted transactions with Russian banks last month and are only slowly reintroducing payments for a narrow range of products that are on a so-called "green list," reports Ragip Soylu. This broad debanking of Russia by Turkey is part of the fallout from President...
Mazdak
Walmart Takes a Big Swing at the Advertising Market with Vizio Acquisition
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its...
3 months ago
In a move that sent ripples through the tech and advertising worlds, Walmart announced its acquisition of smart TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion. This deal is far more than just about TVs; it's a strategic play by Walmart to become a major force in the booming
The Rational Walk
The Digest #190
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben...
3 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Report, Liberty SiriusXM, Catastrophic risk, Tesla's lead designer, Ben Graham's summer on a farm, Income taxes, Interviews of Bruce Berkowitz and Howard Marks, and more...
Mazdak
Understanding Employment Insurance (EI)
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial...
3 months ago
Employment Insurance (EI) is a social insurance program in Canada that provides temporary financial support to eligible individuals who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. While this is the most commonly understood purpose of EI, the program offers various benefits...
Commoncog
Tacit Expertise Extraction, Software Engineering Edition
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior...
3 months ago
One software engineer's story of extracting expertise from the heads of 'a tiger team of senior software engineers'. Useful to anyone who might want to accelerate their own skills.
Musings on Markets
Catastrophic Risk: Investing and Business Implications
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers...
3 months ago
In the context of valuing companies, and sharing those valuations, I do get suggestions from readers on companies that I should value next. While I don't have the time or the bandwidth to value all of the suggested companies, a reader from Iceland, a couple of weeks ago, made a...
Mazdak
Don't Let Savings Turn into Penalties: Understanding RRSP and TFSA Contribution Limits
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones...
3 months ago
Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are cornerstones of Canadian financial planning. Both offer distinct advantages for saving and investing, but exceeding their annual contribution limits can lead to unwanted financial consequences.
Citation Needed
Issue 51 – It's quiet... too quiet
It's been a quiet few weeks in the world of crypto disasters... too quiet.
3 months ago
It's been a quiet few weeks in the world of crypto disasters... too quiet.
The Rational Walk
The River of Doubt
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles...
3 months ago
The amazing story of Theodore Roosevelt's death defying trek through the unmapped rivers and jungles of the Amazon River basin.
Commoncog
One Definition of Wisdom
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
3 months ago
Charlie Munger’s biggest business mistake, and what it tells us about wisdom.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #189
Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty...
3 months ago
Fifteen years, Eisenhower's farewell, A tribute to Charlie Munger, A profile of Wang Chuanfu, Forty hours in the Vision Pro, Fairfax Financial, Parks America, Howard Marks, Danny Myer
The Rational Walk
The Berkshire Hathaway Playbook
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked...
3 months ago
Competition tends to eliminate high profits resulting from business models that have worked spectacularly well. Will Berkshire's playbook continue to perform well in the future?
Mazdak
Salary vs. Dividends: Picking the Right Paycheck as a Business Owner
Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner...
3 months ago
Whether it's the joy of self-employment or the burden of payroll decisions, every business owner faces unique financial considerations. One critical choice arises early on: to pay yourself a salary or take dividends? Understanding the pros and cons of each path empowers you to...
Mazdak
Income Splitting with a Lower-Income Spouse: Strategies and Considerations 🇨🇦
Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be...
3 months ago
Managing finances effectively is crucial for any couple, and income splitting strategies can be powerful tools for maximizing tax benefits and building wealth. This article explores various strategies for couples where one spouse earns significantly more than the other,...
Citation Needed
We need to talk about digital ownership
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually...
3 months ago
"Ownership" means ten different things to ten different people. Let's talk about what we actually want.
FIRE v London
Jan ’24: A giant tax bill lands
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an...
3 months ago
One of several highlights for me in January was visiting Salisbury cathedral, which I did on an impulse while travelling back from the Coastal Folly. My main frame of reference to the cathedral being those notorious Russian nerve agent assassins citing it as their reason for...
Musings on Markets
The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023!
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at...
3 months ago
I was planning to finish my last two data updates for 2024, but decided to take a break and look at the seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which carried the market in 2023. While I will use the "Magnificent Seven" moniker attached by these...
Mazdak
A Review and Analysis of "The Laws of Human Nature" by Robert Greene
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different...
3 months ago
Robert Greene, the author of the controversial bestseller "The 48 Laws of Power," takes a different approach in his 2018 book, "The Laws of Human Nature." Instead of focusing on acquiring power over others, he dives deep into the intricate workings of human psychology, unveiling...
Mazdak
Minimize Taxes, Maximize Inheritance: A Canadian Guide to Estate Planning with Real Estate
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key...
3 months ago
For Canadians nearing retirement, minimizing probate fees and ensuring smooth inheritance become key concerns. In this context, real estate, often the largest asset, presents unique challenges and opportunities. While strategies like adding children to titles were once popular,...
Citation Needed
Review: Chris Dixon's Read Write Own
Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain...
3 months ago
Prominent crypto venture capitalist Chris Dixon provides an unconvincing bible for blockchain solutionists.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #188
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment...
3 months ago
Manufacturing time, Apple Vision Pro, Access journalism, Henry Ford's $5/hr wage, Sharing investment ideas, Insurance brokerages, Katalin Karikó’s autobiography, John Randolph of Roanoke
Mazdak
What Expenses Can You Write Off Against Your Business Income?
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than...
3 months ago
Taxes are an inevitable part of running a business, but that doesn't mean you have to pay more than your fair share. Fortunately, the law allows you to deduct certain expenses from your business income, lowering your taxable amount and saving you money. But navigating the world...
Citation Needed
Issue 50 – Bitcoin busts
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of...
3 months ago
Governments seize huge quantities of bitcoin, and a few people seem to be yearning for the days of peak crypto mania.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #187
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the...
4 months ago
Damage repair, Claude Shannon, Elon Musk's pay, Intellectual obesity, Apple Vision Pro, Ignoring the market, Damodaran data updates, Apple packaging, Samsung, Big Pharma
Moneyness
What does the recent ruling on the Emergencies Act mean for your banking rights?
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy...
4 months ago
A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy protest in 2022 contravened the protestor's rights. In this post I want to provide my reading of this particular ruling and what is at stake for Canadians and their bank...
Musings on Markets
Data Update 5 for 2024: Profitability - The End Game for Business?
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free...
4 months ago
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the...
Bits about Money
The business of check cashing
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
4 months ago
Check cashing, as a business, is a poorly understood "alternative" financial service.
Vitalik Buterin's...
The promise and challenges of crypto + AI applications
4 months ago
balajis.com
The Men's Party
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
4 months ago
Republicans are becoming the party of strong men and the women that love them.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 4 for 2024: Danger and Opportunity - Bringing Risk into the Equation!
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023,...
4 months ago
In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023, driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound. In this post, I look at risk, a central theme in finance and...
Commoncog
Becoming Data Driven, From First Principles
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do...
4 months ago
People often say things like "become data driven" without explaining what that means or how to do it. This is everything you need to know to actually become data driven, from scratch, using the same first principles that Amazon, Koch, and Toyota used back in their day.
The Rational Walk
Endurance
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived...
4 months ago
The amazing story of Shackleton's legendary voyage to the Antarctic and how his 28 men survived shipwreck, ice floes, and constant danger.
FIRE v London
In praise of Berkshire Hathaway
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the...
4 months ago
I think I first clocked Warren Buffett’s (and Charlie Munger RIP’s) Berkshire Hathaway around the year 2000. I loved the story. Starting from, as the story was told back then, humble beginnings and a paper round, Warren Buffett (and Charlie – who I will stop mentioning but...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #186
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment...
4 months ago
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment checklists, Shane Parrish interviews Tom Gayner, Novo Nordisk, Howard Marks on interest rates
Musings on Markets
Data Update 3 for 2024: Interest Rates in 2023 - A Rule-breaking Year!
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the...
4 months ago
In my last post, I looked at equities in 2023, and argued that while they did well during 2023, the bounce back were uneven, with a few big winning companies and sectors, and a significant number of companies not partaking in the recovery. In this post, I look at interest rates,...
Moneyness
Do bitcoin ETFs conflict with bitcoin's original ethos?
Some folks are suggesting that a bitcoin ETF is absurd because it doesn't fit with Bitcoin's...
4 months ago
Some folks are suggesting that a bitcoin ETF is absurd because it doesn't fit with Bitcoin's original ethos. On the contrary, I think it's a nice snug fit.
It would be a misunderstanding of bitcoin's history to assume that it was the idealism of cypherpunk-ism that gave birth to...
The Rational Walk
Two Sides of the Same Coin
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the...
4 months ago
Savings and consumption are joined at the hip. The more we consume during our working years, the longer it will take to achieve financial independence.
balajis.com
Prompts are Tiny Programs
And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
4 months ago
And prompt engineering is a subset of software engineering.
Mazdak
How Long (and Why) You Must Keep Every Business Record 🇨🇦
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable...
4 months ago
Every business, from the corner store to the tech giant, needs to keep accurate and reliable records. This isn't just about staying organized; it's about complying with the law, managing your finances, and protecting yourself from audits. But with so many rules and regulations,...
Citation Needed
Issue 49 – And so the Lord says "give them a 10x"
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
4 months ago
Bitcoin ETP approval, God-sent crypto scammers, and more trouble in Justin Sun's world.
Mazdak
Choosing the Optimal Legal Structure for Your Small Business 🇨🇦
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate...
4 months ago
Launching a small business is a thrilling entrepreneurial adventure, but selecting the appropriate legal framework can feel like traversing a complex maze. This guide sheds light on the merits and drawbacks of the three primary options: sole proprietorship, partnership, and...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #185
Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at...
4 months ago
Capital Allocation, Progressive's strategy, Reading plans, Damodaran's free courses, Looking back at Alibaba's IPO, Chris Davis, Outsider CEOs, Shareholder activists, Oprah
Musings on Markets
Data Update 2 for 2024: A Stock Comeback - The Low Expectations Game!
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation...
4 months ago
Heading into 2023, US equities looked like they were heading into a sea of troubles, with inflation out of control and a recession on the horizon. While stocks had their ups and downs during the year, they ended the year strong, and recouped, at least in the aggregate, most of...
Citation Needed
Video: The charges against Binance
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant...
4 months ago
In December, not long after the Department of Justice announced charges against cryptocurrency giant Binance and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, I started writing up an overview of everything that had happened to the company over the past few years. I'd written separately about a...
Mazdak
Renting vs. Buying in Canada's Skyrocketing Market: Is Homeownership Still a Golden Ticket?
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the...
4 months ago
The Great Canadian Housing Dilemma: Soaring prices and sky-high interest rates have transformed the dream of homeownership into a distant mirage for many Canadians. But before you resign yourself to renting forever, consider this: owning a home may not be the guaranteed...
Citation Needed
Migrating from Substack to self-hosted Ghost: the details
I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
4 months ago
I migrated Citation Needed from Substack to self-hosted Ghost. Here is exactly how I did that.
The Rational Walk
Free Articles!
All articles older than six months are now free to read.
4 months ago
All articles older than six months are now free to read.
Musings on Markets
The School Bell Rings: Time for Class!
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting...
4 months ago
Continuing an annual ritual of long standing, ahead of starting my spring teaching at NYU starting in a couple of weeks, I would like to invite you, if you are interested, to come along for the ride. I know! I know! Most of you are not enrolled at NYU, paying nosebleed prices,...
The Rational Walk
The Thirty Second Mind
Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
4 months ago
Minds capable of deep concentration may soon be extinct.
Mazdak
A Guide to 2024 Tax Brackets and Rates (Canada 🇨🇦)
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian...
4 months ago
Tax season can be a daunting journey, with its intricate paths and hidden obstacles. For Canadian taxpayers, understanding the tax code and optimizing their financial position requires careful planning and informed decisions. This comprehensive guide equips you with the knowledge...
balajis.com
The Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
4 months ago
Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #184
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing,...
4 months ago
Ed Thorp: A Man for All Markets, Howard Marks on easy money, Active patience, Activist investing, Damodaran's 2024 data update, Michael Ovitz, Live Oak, Red Bull, Capital allocation
Mazdak
A Guide to 2023-24 Tax Brackets and Rates (US)
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial...
4 months ago
Tax time can be intimidating, but understanding how your income gets taxed is key to financial savvy. Let's crack open the code with a deep dive into the 2023-24 tax brackets and rates! Imagine your taxable income as climbing a ladder. Each rung represents a tax bracket, and as...
Mazdak
Walmart Goes All-In on AI: Building the Retail Future, One Personalized Shopping Spree at a Time
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and...
4 months ago
Forget the days of aimlessly wandering Walmart's aisles, clutching a crumpled grocery list and battling for the last box of Oreos. The retail giant is about to revolutionize your shopping experience with a generative AI makeover. Imagine this: You're planning a Super Bowl bash,...
Citation Needed
Issue 48 – Bitcoin has "no chance" of going to the moon
Bitcoin ETF fakeouts, imaginary CEOs, and a bridge hack make for an eventful start to the new year.
4 months ago
Bitcoin ETF fakeouts, imaginary CEOs, and a bridge hack make for an eventful start to the new year.
Mazdak
The AI Arms Race: A Billion-Dollar Battle for the Future of Intelligence
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms...
4 months ago
It's not just about building the next big app anymore. In the heart of Silicon Valley, a new arms race is heating up, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This isn't a battle fought with tanks and missiles, but with lines of code and the raw processing power of artificial...
Moneyness
It's time to impose Iran-calibre sanctions on Russia
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long...
4 months ago
Russia is sometimes described as the world's most sanctioned nation. And while that's true, the long list of sanctions that the G7 coalition has placed on Russia in response to its attack on Ukraine are surprisingly light compared to the fewer but far more-draconian sanctions...
Commoncog
A Most Unlikely Master of Capital Allocation
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in...
4 months ago
If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in her life, then perhaps you could, too.
Musings on Markets
Data Update 1 for 2024: The data speaks, but what does it say?
In January 1993, I was valuing a retail company, and I found myself wondering what a reasonable...
4 months ago
In January 1993, I was valuing a retail company, and I found myself wondering what a reasonable margin was for a firm operating in the retail business. In pursuit of an answer to that question, I used company-specific data from Value Line, one of the earliest entrants into the...
Citation Needed
Citation Needed has a new home
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
4 months ago
Citation Needed is no longer hosted on Substack. Welcome to my antifascist bar.
Commoncog
The 2023 Commoncog Recap
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
4 months ago
Everything that we covered in 2023, and what to expect now that Commoncog has a new direction.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #183
Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing,...
4 months ago
Daily Journal, Apple, Costco, Moody's, Munger's wisdom, Tesla's narratives, Tim Urban on writing, Rivian, AI's morality, AI bubble?, How James Longstreet defied the South after the war
Mazdak
2024 Tax Strategies for Optimization and Savings
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and...
4 months ago
The new year dawns, not just with fresh resolutions, but also the opportunity to reassess and optimize your tax strategy. While taxes may not be the most exhilarating topic, savvy planning can significantly reduce your liability and boost your financial well-being. So, grab your...
Mazdak
Why 2024 will be the year of the Delivery Drone?
For years, drone delivery has hovered on the horizon, a tantalizing glimpse of a futuristic utopia...
4 months ago
For years, drone delivery has hovered on the horizon, a tantalizing glimpse of a futuristic utopia where packages pirouette through the air and land at our doorsteps with clockwork precision. But 2024 marks a pivotal juncture, a year where the sci-fi fantasy transforms into a...
FIRE v London
Dec ’23 – 2023 in review
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m...
5 months ago
It’s the start of a calendar year. Let’s take a look at what 2023 did to me financially. I’m following the same structure I’ve used for the last few years (2022, 2021, and 2020). Overall, 2023 was a good year on almost all measures – thanks in particular to Q4 which saw the US...
The Rational Walk
A Seamless Web of Deserved Trust
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
5 months ago
Trust is earned over many years. Seamless trust requires decades.
Mazdak
The Elon Musk Empire
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and...
5 months ago
In the annals of American history, few individuals have wielded influence over such diverse and critical industries as Elon Musk. His companies, spanning transportation, communication, artificial intelligence, and space exploration, stand as testaments to his audacious vision and...
Mazdak
5 Sneaky Financial Traps Sabotaging Your Middle-Class Dream (and How to Escape Them)
In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth...
5 months ago
In today's dynamic financial landscape, the middle class faces unique challenges. Building wealth amidst rising costs and shifting landscapes requires careful navigation, avoiding insidious traps that can derail your financial goals. This newsletter identifies
Mazdak
Used Car Prices Drop: Should You Buy Now or Wait for Better Deals?
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has...
5 months ago
The once-tumultuous used car market, characterized by record-high prices and limited options, has begun to exhibit signs of a significant shift. Prices are now decelerating, presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers. This article delves into the key factors driving...
Mazdak
2024 Tax Changes in Canada: A Detailed Guide for Canadians 💰🇨🇦
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year,...
5 months ago
The Canadian tax landscape undergoes periodic shifts, and 2024 is no exception. This year, adjustments and updates across various areas present both opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. Let's explore the key changes and consider their potential ramifications.
Mazdak
The Shadow Bankers Rise: Private Credit Fuels M&A in a Turbulent Market
While 2023 witnessed a 6% dip in US M&A value, a silent force has emerged as the lifeblood of...
5 months ago
While 2023 witnessed a 6% dip in US M&A value, a silent force has emerged as the lifeblood of deal-making in this uncertain market: private credit. Stepping in where traditional bank financing hesitates, private credit has carved a niche with its nimble agility and diverse tools.
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 2
This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for...
5 months ago
This is the 11th and final post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I concluded the previous post by explaining how Attention works. You can download the Excel sheet and Python code that explains how Attention from here and...
Vitalik Buterin's...
Make Ethereum Cypherpunk Again
5 months ago
Mazdak
2024: A Roadmap for AI's Next Big Step
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to...
5 months ago
2023 was a whirlwind year for artificial intelligence (AI). ChatGPT wowed us with its ability to generate human-quality text, while chipmaker Nvidia pushed the boundaries of what's possible with graphics processing units (GPUs). But amidst the hype, there were also concerns about...
Citation Needed
Issue 47 – Residual garbage
All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
5 months ago
All my "absolute top tier apes" gone, anti-rug-pull rug pulls, and an update on this newsletter.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #182
Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire,...
5 months ago
Passive Investing, Low Trust Societies, Greg Abel in the spotlight, Capital allocation at Berkshire, Better habits for 2024, Amusing CPA stories, Ben Graham, Charlie Munger, Pernod Ricard
Seeking Wisdom
Attention is all you need – Part 1
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better...
5 months ago
This is the 10th post in my series on building a toy GPT. Read my earlier posts first for better understanding. I asked ChatGPT to complete the sentence given the phrase: “I chose that bank for”. It completed the sentences sensibly. Here are the four sentences it generated: In...
Mazdak
Yelp's Transformation: From Review Revolution to Advertising Efficiency
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a...
5 months ago
Yelp, the online review platform that revolutionized local business discovery, has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. Shifting from a sales-driven model to a self-service advertising engine, Yelp has achieved significant efficiency gains and revitalized its...
Mazdak
Inflation finally chills out! Americans rejoice & recession whispers fade as prices dip and spending...
The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first...
5 months ago
The good news just keeps coming! Prices finally took a breather in November, marking the first decline since way back in 2020! This ain't no mirage, folks - inflation is cooling down, and the Fed's fight against skyrocketing prices is showing real results!
The Rational Walk
What I’ve Been Reading
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
5 months ago
Thoughts on the books I read in Q4 2023
Mazdak
Canada's Retail Pulse: Holiday Shopping Season Navigates Mixed Signals
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday...
5 months ago
Canada's retail landscape is offering a mixed bag of signals heading into the critical holiday season. While October saw a surprising 0.7% increase in retail sales, exceeding economist expectations, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend in the face of rising...
Bits about Money
Payroll providers, Power, Respect
Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is...
5 months ago
Payroll processors exist to provide financial infrastructure and because political economy is complicated.
Mazdak
2024: The Year the Economy Wins?
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a...
5 months ago
As we turn the page to 2024, we're met with a cautiously optimistic economic forecast, suggesting a potential shift towards a more balanced and stable environment. While challenges and uncertainties remain, let's explore the key trends and strategic insights that can guide us...
Mazdak
Interest Rates Dip, But Will Demand Follow?
As the housing market continues its dynamic dance, a recent drop in interest rates presents a...
5 months ago
As the housing market continues its dynamic dance, a recent drop in interest rates presents a curious conundrum. While the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for qualifying loans sunk to 6.83%, purchase applications surprisingly declined 1%. This begs the question:
Moneyness
Are flatcoins a good idea?
I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea.
The idea for flatcoins has...
5 months ago
I'll start with the conclusion. I don't think flatcoins are a good idea.
The idea for flatcoins has been around for a while, but it got a wider airing when it popped up in a Coinbase marketing piece from earlier this year. Now, arch-crypto hater Nouriel Roubini has undergone a...
Mazdak
The Grim Outlook for Offices in 2024
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
5 months ago
The future of your workspace is facing some serious turbulence.
Mazdak
Google Pays $700 Million to Settle App Store Antitrust Concerns
Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling...
5 months ago
Google has agreed to pay a hefty $700 million and implement key changes to its Play Store, settling a major antitrust lawsuit brought by a coalition of states. This landmark deal marks a significant victory for developers and consumers alike, potentially paving the way for a more...
FIRE v London
Becoming an ISA $millionaire
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until...
5 months ago
This time last year I wrote that my annual ISA update was many months late. I had delayed it until using my full annual ISA allowance(s), which took me much longer than usual last year. This year I actually completed my ISA topups in April, within a few weeks of the start of the...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #181
Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò...
5 months ago
Antisemitism in America, Charlie Munger's uncommon sense, Les Schwab's business philosophy, Niccolò Machiavelli, internal vs. external goals, Safe withdrawal rates, Protecting your time
Mazdak
Adobe Scraps $20 Billion Figma Deal
Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the...
5 months ago
Adobe's blockbuster $20 billion bid for Figma, the web-based design darling, is officially off the table! This dramatic pivot throws a spotlight on the tightening grip of global regulators on tech mergers, leaving investors and industry players to wonder:
The Rational Walk
New Articles Moving to Newsletter
Effective today, I will no longer post new articles to this website, rationalwalk.com. All new...
5 months ago
Effective today, I will no longer post new articles to this website, rationalwalk.com. All new articles will be posted on my Substack at newsletter.rationalwalk.com.
The Rational Walk
The Year in Review
Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
5 months ago
Growth in 2023, top articles, and plans for the future
Moneyness
The long arm of OFAC and its reach into the Ethereum network
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving...
5 months ago
Coinbase, the U.S.'s largest crypto exchange, is openly processing Ethereum transactions involving Tornado Cash, a piece of blockchain infrastructure that was sanctioned by the U.S. government last year for providing mixing services to North Korea.
Over the last two weeks...
Citation Needed
Substackers Against Nazis
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
5 months ago
A collective letter to Substack leadership.
Citation Needed
Issue 46 – Checkmate, crypto
Cheating chess-players, cursed mansions, and more defi centralization.
5 months ago
Cheating chess-players, cursed mansions, and more defi centralization.
Mazdak
A Brighter Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024?
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples...
5 months ago
The Federal Reserve's recent announcement of potential interest rate cuts in 2024 has sent ripples through the housing market, sparking both excitement and cautious optimism among prospective buyers and existing homeowners alike. While the prospect of lower mortgage rates is...
Mazdak
Google's AI Search Tool: A Traffic Nightmare for Publishers?
AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
5 months ago
AI Threatens to Shake Up the News Landscape.
Mazdak
Threads Takes Europe!: Meta's Microblogging App Makes a Big Move
Calling all European Tweeters! 🇪🇺 Meta's microblogging platform, Threads, is officially landing on...
5 months ago
Calling all European Tweeters! 🇪🇺 Meta's microblogging platform, Threads, is officially landing on your shores. Months after its initial launch in the U.S., Threads is finally spreading its wings and embracing the vast and vibrant online communities of Europe. Mark Zuckerberg...
Mazdak
Fed Signals Shift to Easing: Rate Cuts Likely in 2024, Economy Expected to Remain Solid.
The Federal Reserve is signalling a change of course, and it's music to the ears of businesses,...
5 months ago
The Federal Reserve is signalling a change of course, and it's music to the ears of businesses, investors, and everyday Americans. After two years of aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation, the central bank is now laying the groundwork for a shift towards easing
The Rational Walk
Concentrated Investments
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the...
5 months ago
Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have a very large percentage of their net worth invested in the company. What are the risks of concentrated investments in general and Berkshire in particular?
Mazdak
A Look at the Struggling Office Sector in the US
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the...
5 months ago
The Covid-19 pandemic may be largely in the rearview mirror, but there is at least one area of the economy that remains ill: the office sector of the U.S. commercial real-estate market. ** What's the Problem?** Hybrid/remote work: What began as a two-week work-from-home...
Bits about Money
The Long Shadow of Checks
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the...
5 months ago
A lot of more modern financial infrastructure follows the paths blazed by checks, at least in the U.S.
Mazdak
Apple & Google Face Mounting Threats to $500 Billion Market
The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is...
5 months ago
The $500 billion app store market, which has been a cash cow for Apple and Google for years, is facing a growing number of threats. A recent court ruling against Google and new regulations in Europe and Asia could force the two tech giants to open up their app stores to more...
Mazdak
The Big News: ChatGPT Pays Up for Content, Ushering in a New Era for Media & AI
Get ready for a paradigm shift, folks! News just dropped that OpenAI, the brains behind ChatGPT, has...
5 months ago
Get ready for a paradigm shift, folks! News just dropped that OpenAI, the brains behind ChatGPT, has signed a multi-year licensing deal with Axel Springer, the media giant behind Politico and Business Insider. This isn't just any deal, it's a game-changer
Mazdak
Playing it Safe Paid Off in 2023, But Now It's Time to Take More Risk with Your Money
2023 was a year of playing it safe for investors, with many flocking to the security and guaranteed...
5 months ago
2023 was a year of playing it safe for investors, with many flocking to the security and guaranteed returns of cash and cash-like investments. This was largely driven by the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, which boosted the yields of money-market funds and similar...
Mazdak
Protect Your iPhone: Apple Introduces Stolen Device Protection
Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device...
5 months ago
Apple is taking a stand against iPhone theft with a new security feature called Stolen Device Protection, currently available to beta testers. This feature adds an extra layer of protection to your personal information and financial data, making it more difficult for thieves to...
Mazdak
Jury Delivers Major Blow to Google in Antitrust Case: Play Store Deemed Illegal Monopoly
In a historic ruling that could shake the foundations of the mobile app ecosystem, a federal jury...
5 months ago
In a historic ruling that could shake the foundations of the mobile app ecosystem, a federal jury has found Google Play guilty of violating antitrust laws in a lawsuit brought by Epic Games. This landmark decision has sent shockwaves through the tech industry and raised questions...
Commoncog
Data and the Capital Cycle: How Koch Became an Empire
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and...
5 months ago
How Koch Industries became an empire. We draw on ideas from both the Becoming Data Driven series and the Capital Expertise series.
Mazdak
Teens Obsessed with YouTube and TikTok: New Survey Reveals Usage Trends
Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew...
5 months ago
Nearly 1 in 5 teens are on YouTube or TikTok "almost constantly," according to a new survey by Pew Research Center. This highlights the immense popularity of these video-streaming platforms among younger generations. Here are the key takeaways from the survey:
Mazdak
Nearly All US Job Growth in November Came From Just 3 Sectors!
Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's...
5 months ago
Did you know? The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, slightly more than expected. But what's even more interesting is that nearly all of this job growth came from just three sectors! So, which sectors are we talking about? Healthcare: Leading the pack with a steady demand...
Mazdak
Canadian Real Estate Market Predictions for 2024
As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for...
5 months ago
As we enter the year 2024, the Canadian real estate market presents a unique landscape for investors. While the explosive growth of recent years is likely to abate, a multitude of factors will continue to shape the market's trajectory. Understanding these factors is crucial for...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #180
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting,...
5 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, John Neff and Peter Lynch on investing, Charlie Munger on parenting, Damodaran on key person risk, Microsoft's IPO, Howard Marks and Annie Duke on risk
Musings on Markets
The Difference Makers: Key Person(s) Valuation
Can one person make a difference to the value of a business? Of course, and with small businesses,...
5 months ago
Can one person make a difference to the value of a business? Of course, and with small businesses, especially those built around personal services (a doctor or plumber’s practice), it is part of the valuation process, where the key person is valued or at least priced and...
Mazdak
What is QSBS?
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul...
5 months ago
As a small business owner, you know the importance of every dollar. You pour your heart and soul into your company, and you want to see it thrive. But taxes can eat into your profits, leaving you feeling frustrated and discouraged. That's where QSBS (Qualified Small Business...
Mazdak
The Future of Healthcare: Your AI Health Pod is Here! 🩺
Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and...
5 months ago
Get ready for a revolution in healthcare! Say goodbye to long waits and crowded waiting rooms, and hello to the CarePod, your self-contained doctor's office powered by artificial intelligence. Imagine: Stepping into a futuristic pod at your local mall, gym, or even office...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway Energy
Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
5 months ago
Selected highlights from the 2023 EEI Financial Conference
Mazdak
Google's Gemini Enters the AI Arena: Ready to Take on OpenAI?
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This...
5 months ago
Get ready for a new contender in the world of large language models (LLMs): Google's Gemini! This powerful AI is set to shake things up, potentially rivaling big names like OpenAI and Microsoft. What's the Buzz About Gemini? Gemini comes in three flavors:
Mazdak
The Rollercoaster Ride of Long-Term Rates: What it Means for You and the Economy
Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that...
5 months ago
Remember that dramatic rise in long-term interest rates back in September and October? The one that had everyone from policymakers to financial analysts glued to their screens? Well, guess what? It's mostly reversed! What does this mean? In a nutshell, it means a sigh of relief...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #179
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI...
5 months ago
Guard your time, Tributes to Charlie Munger, Social media traps, The margin of illusion, AI colonoscopies, Advice on tipping, Alcohol and cardiovascular risks, Nicomachean ethics
FIRE v London
Nov ’23 revalues the future
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public...
5 months ago
In the news It has been quite a busy month out there. The Israel/Gaza crisis continues. Public opinion is shifting against the Israel government here, even in North London – which would normally be one of the most sympathetic neighbourhoods outside Tel Aviv. The Ukrainians are...
Mazdak
Open Source AI Takes Center Stage: A New Alliance Challenges Tech Giants 🤖
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open...
5 months ago
In a bold move to challenge the dominance of closed AI models, a new global alliance for AI open source development has emerged, firing shots at the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. These tech giants have captured much of the AI spotlight in 2023, but the alliance believes...
Mazdak
The Weight-Loss Gold Rush
A Race to Develop Blockbuster Obesity Drugs
5 months ago
A Race to Develop Blockbuster Obesity Drugs
Moneyness
Why do sanctioned entities use Tether?
Tether, a stablecoin, has been in the news for offering sanctioned actors such as Hamas a means to...
5 months ago
Tether, a stablecoin, has been in the news for offering sanctioned actors such as Hamas a means to participate in the global payments ecosystem.
In this post I want to explore in more depth how Tether is being used to dodge sanctions. I'm going to avoid drawing on the Hamas...
Citation Needed
Issue 45 – I'm the director now
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker...
5 months ago
Rising bitcoin prices bring echoes of the crypto mania from years past, and an ambitious hacker decides to manifest a new job for themselves.
Mazdak
AI's Energy Problem: Can We Power Progress Without Wrecking the Planet? ⚡️🌎
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai...
5 months ago
AI is booming, but its appetite for energy is a growing concern. As world leaders gather in Dubai for COP28, it's more important than ever to understand the complex relationship between AI and climate change. Why it matters: AI could become one of the biggest energy guzzlers on...
The Rational Walk
Soldier On
In 1955, Charlie Munger's nine year old son died of leukemia, a disease with a nearly 100% death...
5 months ago
In 1955, Charlie Munger's nine year old son died of leukemia, a disease with a nearly 100% death rate at the time. How did he overcome his grief and endure in life?
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 2
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
6 months ago
This is the 9th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. Word embeddings convert words into fixed-length numerical arrays. Each number in these arrays corresponds to a specific characteristic of the word, such...
Mazdak
⚖️ Copyright Law and Generative AI
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions...
6 months ago
Generative AI is revolutionizing the way we create, but it's also raising complex legal questions about copyright law. 🤯 What's the Issue? 🤔 Copyright law protects original works created by humans. But what about AI-generated content? Is it protected by copyright? 🤔
Moneyness
Even crypto mixing deserves a threshold
Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically...
6 months ago
Many of you may not realize this, but in most parts of the developed world, banks automatically record and report our transactions to law enforcement. The logic behind this is that by giving up our personal data, we get more security, albeit at the cost of 1) losing our privacy,...
Mazdak
Tesla Cybertruck beats a Porsche 911 while towing a 911 🫡👀
6 months ago
Mazdak
Top 10 Finance News Headlines for Thursday, November 30th, 2023 📈📰
📈 Stocks Soar: The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 500 points on Thursday, closing at...
6 months ago
📈 Stocks Soar: The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 500 points on Thursday, closing at its highest level of the year. The rally was fueled by optimism about the economy and a slowdown in inflation. 🚀 💼 Peltz Takes Aim at Disney: Activist investor Nelson Peltz is...
Mazdak
Inflation is Cooling Off: A Glimpse of Economic Stability ☀️
📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic....
6 months ago
📰 Highlights Inflation is finally starting to show signs of easing on both sides of the Atlantic. The moderation of inflation is a significant development that alleviates pressure on consumers and provides central banks with some breathing room. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's...
Mazdak
Elon Musk Lashes Out at Advertisers Leaving X
⚡️ Musk's Fiery Response to Advertiser Exodus 💥 "Go Fk Yourself," Musk Says to Advertisers** 🚀 X...
6 months ago
⚡️ Musk's Fiery Response to Advertiser Exodus 💥 "Go Fk Yourself," Musk Says to Advertisers** 🚀 X CEO Defiant Amidst Advertising Boycott In a fiery exchange at the 2023 DealBook Summit in New York, Elon Musk unleashed a barrage of profanity at advertisers who have pulled their...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #178
Berkshire countersues Pilot's founders, Meta targeting teens, Title Insurance, Moats & capital...
6 months ago
Berkshire countersues Pilot's founders, Meta targeting teens, Title Insurance, Moats & capital allocation, CAVA's origin, VISA's history, Business lessons from Tom Murphy
Mazdak
Finance News Roundup - Wednesday, 29th November
😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire...
6 months ago
😢 Investing Legend Charlie Munger Passes Away Charlie Munger, a longtime vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and a close associate of Warren Buffett, has passed away at the age of 97. Munger was known for his wit, wisdom, and contrarian investment style.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #177
Remembering Charlie Munger
6 months ago
Remembering Charlie Munger
Mazdak
Google and the Canadian Government Reach a Deal on Online News Act
The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three...
6 months ago
The Government of Canada and Google have reached a deal on the Online News Act (C-18), just three weeks before the act is scheduled to come into effect. The deal will see Google continue to show Canadian news on its platforms in exchange for annual payments to Canadian news...
The Rational Walk
Charlie Munger (1924 – 2023)
A life well lived
6 months ago
Mazdak
The ChatGPT Revolution: A Year Later
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured...
6 months ago
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) that quickly captured the attention of the world. ChatGPT's ability to generate human-quality text, translate languages, write different kinds of creative content, and answer questions in an informative...
Moneyness
Are central banks too reliant on SWIFT for domestic payments?
Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally...
6 months ago
Central bank settlement systems are the the tectonic plates of the payment system: they are vitally important to our lives, but we never see them in action. All of a nations' electronic payments are ultimately completed, or settled, on these systems. If they stop working, our...
Commoncog
Marvel Studios’s Origin Story
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of...
6 months ago
The creation of Marvel Studios was contingent on some very creative financial dealmaking. A story of superb capital expertise in action.
Mazdak
Four Dumb Things You're Doing That Are Making You Lose Money in the Stock Market
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While...
6 months ago
Navigating the stock market can be a daunting task, especially for those new to investing. While there are many strategies that can help you achieve your financial goals, there are also some surefire ways to lose money. Here are four of the most common mistakes investors make:
Citation Needed
Effective obfuscation
Silicon Valley's "effective altruism" and "effective accelerationism" only give a thin philosophical...
6 months ago
Silicon Valley's "effective altruism" and "effective accelerationism" only give a thin philosophical veneer to the industry's same old impulses.
Bits about Money
The Bond villain compliance strategy
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out...
6 months ago
Jurisdictional gamesmanship is a common strategy for crypto businesses. Here is how it worked out for Binance and its CEO. Spoiler: poorly.
Mazdak
Subscription Overload: The Rise of Recurring Revenue
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches...
6 months ago
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches onto the subscription business model. This is because businesses can make more money up-front and over time by selling subscriptions and building loyalty. They can also mine...
Seeking Wisdom
Embeddings – Part 1
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
6 months ago
This is the 8th post in my series on building a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. I love playing and watching cricket. The dominance India showed in the recently concluded World Cup is astounding. I have never seen anything like it in...
Commoncog
Commoncog's Next Phase
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains...
6 months ago
Announcing the launch of the Commoncog Case Library, setting the Learning in Ill-Structured Domains series free, and one more thing.
Mazdak
Sam Altman Returns to OpenAI as CEO
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman has been reinstated as CEO of OpenAI, just days after being...
6 months ago
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman has been reinstated as CEO of OpenAI, just days after being fired by the company's board. The move comes after a whirlwind few days that saw Altman's supporters rally to his side, with many threatening to quit if he was not brought back.
The Rational Walk
Buffett Accelerates Gifts to Family Foundations
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of...
6 months ago
For the second year in a row, Warren Buffett has made gifts to four family foundations in excess of the annual commitments pledged in 2006.
Commoncog
Strong at Capital, Bad at Everything Else
Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but...
6 months ago
Two examples of operators who were strong on the capital side of the business expertise triad, but weak in just about everything else.
Mazdak
Binance CEO Steps Down and Pleads Guilty as Part of $4.3 Billion Settlement
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful...
6 months ago
Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao is the most powerful player in the industry. This deal puts an end to a years-long investigation into Binance. The deal: CZ agreed to pay $50 million in fines and is prohibited from operating or managing...
Citation Needed
Issue 44 – Four
The Justice Department's interest in Binance isn't just "FUD" anymore.
6 months ago
The Justice Department's interest in Binance isn't just "FUD" anymore.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #176
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land,...
6 months ago
Found Money, OpenAI drama, GLP-1 drug studies, Estée Lauder, Heart valve technology, Edwin Land, John Oliver skewers dollar stores, Apple regrets, The Great Books Journal
Mazdak
Sam Altman's Potential Return to OpenAI
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to...
6 months ago
In a surprising turn of events, high-level discussions are underway to bring Sam Altman back to OpenAI, not just as an investor or advisor, but as the company's CEO once again. This development comes just days after Altman's abrupt departure from the position, which sent...
Mazdak
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed...
6 months ago
Jeff Bezos sold around $240 million worth of Amazon shares last week. The transactions were listed as contributions to nonprofit organizations. Shares of Amazon fell 1.8% on Nov. 15 and 0.3% on Nov. 16. Bezos still holds 988.3 million shares of Amazon, around 10% of the company.
Mazdak
Information Overload? Don't Be Fooled!
In today's world of instant access and information overload, we often find ourselves bombarded with...
6 months ago
In today's world of instant access and information overload, we often find ourselves bombarded with conflicting opinions and dubious advice. It can be a challenge to distinguish genuine expertise from misleading claims and unqualified opinions. This issue of our newsletter offers...
Mazdak
OpenAI's Meltdown: A Fight for the Future of AI
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching...
6 months ago
The recent turmoil at OpenAI, sparked by the abrupt firing of CEO Sam Altman, has far-reaching implications for the future of artificial intelligence (AI). OpenAI, known for its groundbreaking ChatGPT technology, is considered a frontrunner in the AI race, and its fate could...
Mazdak
X's Ad Business Faces Its Toughest Challenge Yet
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are...
6 months ago
In a major blow to X, formerly Twitter, a number of marquee advertisers have announced that they are suspending ad spending on the platform. This comes in response to owner Elon Musk's endorsement of an antisemitic post, as well as to a report by Media Matters For America that...
Mazdak
OpenAI in Turmoil: Altman and Brockman Join Microsoft, Employees Revolt
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the...
6 months ago
In a stunning turn of events, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, the ousted CEOs of OpenAI, the non-profit research company behind groundbreaking artificial intelligence advancements, are joining Microsoft to lead a new research unit. This move comes after failed talks to reinstate...
Moneyness
Is it legal to mix cash in a jar?
Chris Blec asks the following question:
Source: Twitter
Chris's premise is that it is "not...
6 months ago
Chris Blec asks the following question:
Source: Twitter
Chris's premise is that it is "not illegal" for him to get together with a bunch of strangers to mix cash. But that's not quite right. It can be legal. It can also be illegal. To determine which it is, we need to...
Mazdak
Canadian Mortgage Debt Growth Slows to Two-Decade Low, But Remains Elevated
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to...
6 months ago
Canadians are taking on mortgage debt at a slower pace than ever before in two decades, according to data from the Bank of Canada (BoC). However, mortgage debt growth remains historically high, despite the recent slowdown. The BoC's latest data shows that outstanding mortgage...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #175
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount...
6 months ago
Pseudonyms on social media, Superinvestor portfolios, Apple Vision Pro, Gates on AI, 40% discount rates, Evolving moats, Jay Gould, Garry Tan, Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Steve Ells
Moneyness
Kraken v Kraken, or how to protect the public from crypto exchange failures
It's been a full year since FTX International and FTX-US collapsed, and the shocking thing is –...
6 months ago
It's been a full year since FTX International and FTX-US collapsed, and the shocking thing is – there is still no regulated crypto venue in the U.S.! You'd think some lessons would have been learnt.
To best protect the public from the Sam Bankman-Frieds of the world, what the...
Commoncog
Colin Bryar on the practice of Amazon's Weekly Business Review
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of...
6 months ago
Cedric talks to Colin Bryar, early Amazon executive and former shadow to Jeff Bezos, on one of Amazon's secret operational weapons: the Weekly Business Review.
Mazdak
Unlocking Tax Savings and Building Wealth for Your Children: A Smart Strategy for Business Owners
As a business owner, you're constantly seeking ways to optimize your operations, reduce costs, and...
6 months ago
As a business owner, you're constantly seeking ways to optimize your operations, reduce costs, and maximize profits. But have you considered a strategy that not only benefits your business but also sets your children up for financial success? The concept of hiring your children...
The Rational Walk
Superinvestor Portfolio Changes — Q3 2023
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General,...
6 months ago
A few observations based on recent 13F filings, with a focus on Berkshire Hathaway, Dollar General, Markel, and Semper Augustus.
Moneyness
In praise of anti-money laundering thresholds
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money...
6 months ago
Two seemingly separate stories, a crypto and a banking story, have a common thread in anti-money laundering thresholds.
In the first story, the New York Times shows how regular folks are increasingly losing their bank accounts because their bank perceives them to be engaging in...
Mazdak
How Companies Use Transfer Pricing to Avoid Taxes
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their...
6 months ago
In the world of finance, there are a myriad of strategies employed by corporations to optimize their tax liabilities. One such method, known as transfer pricing, has become increasingly prevalent in recent years, raising concerns about fairness and equity in the global tax...
The Rational Walk
Finding Your Life’s Work
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of...
6 months ago
The majority of people never find their "life's work", yet the premise of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for a college degree assumes that they will.
Citation Needed
The stones left unturned in the Sam Bankman-Fried trial
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many...
6 months ago
From billions of mysterious Tethers to the apparent identity theft of Thai sex workers, many questions remain about what happened at Bankman-Fried's crypto empire.
Vitalik Buterin's...
Exit games for EVM validiums: the return of Plasma
6 months ago
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 3
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend...
6 months ago
This is the seventh post in my series on making a toy GPT. For better understanding, I recommend reading my earlier posts first. The MNIST dataset is the “hello world” of machine learning, containing images of handwritten digits that are used to train machine learning models. It...
balajis.com
Only Newsom Can Go To China
If Nixon and Mao came to an accord, so might Newsom and Xi.
6 months ago
If Nixon and Mao came to an accord, so might Newsom and Xi.
Mazdak
How to Use Pain to Fuel Your Personal Evolution
Pain is inevitable, especially if you're chasing ambitious goals. But what if I told you that pain...
6 months ago
Pain is inevitable, especially if you're chasing ambitious goals. But what if I told you that pain can be a powerful tool for personal evolution? When you're feeling pain, it's a sign that you need to find a solution. This is an opportunity to learn and grow. If you can develop a...
The Rational Walk
The Digest #174
Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions,...
6 months ago
Working Hard, Berkshire Q3 Recap, ProPublica attacks Buffett, Chipotle's international ambitions, The AI Gold Rush, 100th anniversary of Hitler's beer hall putsch, The Federalist Papers
Citation Needed
Issue 43 – Laser eyes
Two crypto firms emerge from bankruptcy, and a Bored Ape party turns out even worse than it sounds.
6 months ago
Two crypto firms emerge from bankruptcy, and a Bored Ape party turns out even worse than it sounds.
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 Results — Manufacturing, Service, and Retailing
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on...
6 months ago
A review of Berkshire's large collection of non-insurance operating businesses, with a focus on results in Q3 2023 as well as a longer term view.
Mazdak
In the AI Race: Embrace Commoditization, Focus on Customer Value
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for...
6 months ago
The world of AI is a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, where startups are constantly vying for attention and a slice of the market pie. In this competitive environment, it's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of proprietary components and cutting-edge algorithms,...
Moneyness
How would a cash-only central bank conduct monetary policy?
What role do changes in the supply of banknotes play in contributing to a central bank's ability to...
6 months ago
What role do changes in the supply of banknotes play in contributing to a central bank's ability to carry out monetary policy? Put differently, to what degree does "printing," or creating new physical currency and issuing it into the economy, contribute to generating a central...
Citation Needed
New York Times: Crypto's fragile foundations
My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency...
6 months ago
My article in the New York Times describes the common practice throughout the cryptocurrency industry that can lead to death spirals like the one at FTX.
Commoncog
High Roller: Lessons from America's Richest Banker
Andy Beal's story is an astounding story of capital allocation, incidentally making him America's...
6 months ago
Andy Beal's story is an astounding story of capital allocation, incidentally making him America's richest banker. A guest post by Frederik Gieschen.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #173
Berkshire's Q3 earnings, Munger on retailing, SBF's strange philosophy, Rob Henderson on reading,...
6 months ago
Berkshire's Q3 earnings, Munger on retailing, SBF's strange philosophy, Rob Henderson on reading, Howard Marks on a full return world, Morgan Housel on writing that sells, Cities on Mars
The Rational Walk
GEICO Prioritizes Profits Over Market Share
Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price...
6 months ago
Berkshire Hathaway's auto insurer has returned to consistent profitability in 2023 but at the price of ceding market share that will be costly to regain in the future.
Bits about Money
Seeing like a Bank
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like...
6 months ago
The structural reasons why banks sometimes behave bizarrely in interactions with customers, like forgetting things which customers tell them.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 2
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts...
6 months ago
This is my sixth post in a series on building a toy GPT. I recommend that you read my previous posts before reading this one. When using linear and logistic regression, which involve just a single linear equation, calculating derivatives is easy since there is only one equation...
Mazdak
Move Your Business Abroad: A Step-by-Step Guide for Entrepreneurs
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and...
6 months ago
Expanding your business abroad can be a great way to reach new markets, increase revenue, and diversify your portfolio. However, it's important to do your research and take the necessary steps to ensure a successful transition. Here are some practical tips for entrepreneurs...
The Rational Walk
Buffett Continues to Avoid Long-Term Bonds
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to...
6 months ago
Berkshire's longstanding aversion to fixed-maturity investments has not changed in response to higher interest rates.
balajis.com
Crypto Twitter Found SBF's Fraud
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
6 months ago
The establishment did nothing until the internet revealed everything.
FIRE v London
Oct ’23: Terror erupts from Gaza
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of...
6 months ago
It’s the Middle East again. I don’t have any perspective on it, sadly, other than that I hear of some nasty low level youth violence/intimidation/vandalism in North London in Jewish neighbourhoods by pro-Palestinian, dare-I-say-it pro-Hamas hotheads. But in most of London life...
The Rational Walk
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2023 — Overview
A high level overview of third quarter results and year-to-date repurchase activity.
6 months ago
A high level overview of third quarter results and year-to-date repurchase activity.
Seeking Wisdom
Neural Networks – Part 1
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts...
6 months ago
This is my 5th post on my journey to build a toy GPT. I’d recommend checking out my previous posts before diving into this one. Take the statement, ‘I will only go for a walk if it’s nice outside AND I have free time.’ This can be neatly represented using a truth table. We can…
Commoncog
The Two Types of Data Analysis
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have...
7 months ago
Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to data analysis in business. The two approaches have different worldviews, and express different tradeoffs. Here's why that matters.
Citation Needed
Sam Bankman-Fried: guilty on all charges
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
7 months ago
Jurors spent less than five hours deliberating before returning the verdict.
The Rational Walk
The Digest #172
Pilot's Founders vs. Berkshire, I Bonds, Ted Weschler interview transcript, Expanding circles of...
7 months ago
Pilot's Founders vs. Berkshire, I Bonds, Ted Weschler interview transcript, Expanding circles of competence, Damodaran on Tesla, Thompson on AI, Charlie Munger, Chris Davis
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