46

It Was 20 Years Ago Today I Started this Blog: What Surprises Me

3 months ago

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith in finance

I've managed to maintain a sense of humor and curiosity--or at least the comforting delusion that I've maintained them. It was 20 years ago...

18

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Apartment...

26

Expect More Politically Inscrutable Assassinations

3 months ago

from The Diff in finance

Plus! Coasian Bargains; Movies; Currency; OpenAI; Tariffs

21

Trade Deficit increased to $140.5 Billion in March

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that...

29

OpenAI is not becoming a for-profit company after all.

3 months ago

from Mazdak in finance

In a significant reversal, OpenAI announced on May 5, 2025, that it will remain under the control of its nonprofit entity, abandoning earlier plans to...

21

Recession Watch Metrics

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded...

110

The Terminal Rot in Corporate America

3 months ago

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith in finance

Corporate America took advantage of the Covid shortages and fiscal largesse to profiteer on a scale criminals could only dream of. One of...

33

Warren Buffett’s Final Brushstrokes

3 months ago

from The Rational Walk in finance

Warren Buffett is retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway but he may still make a few final brushstrokes on his canvas as Chairman.

19

ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool Brief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to Slow •...

24

Peak Berkshire (In a Good Way)

3 months ago

from The Diff in finance

Plus! Diff Jobs; Decoupling; Who Trains the Model-Trainers; Cash Cycles; AI and ARR; Gating

16

ISM® Services Index Increased to 51.6% in April

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 51.6%, up from 50.8% last month. The employment index increased to 49.0%, from 46.2%. Note:...

17

Longreads + Open Thread

3 months ago

from The Diff in finance

Margin Call, Math, BNPL, AI and the Environment, Bonds, Favors, Tariffs, College

34

The Greed & Fear Tango: The Markets in April 2025!

3 months ago

from Musings on Markets in finance

I started the month on a trip to Latin America, just as the tariff story hit my newsfeed and the market reacted with a sell off that knocked more than...

16

Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

The key report scheduled for this week is the March trade balance. ----- Monday, May 5th ----- 10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for April.   The...

20

25 Years of Higher Interest Rates Ahead?

3 months ago

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith in finance

Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk. As a result of recency bias, where we assume the recent past is a...

15

Storing Up Untainted Data

3 months ago

from The Diff in finance

Plus! Niches; Creator Economy; AI and Filters; Trade Wars; Peak Gaming?

22

Berkshire Hathaway’s Diamond Anniversary

3 months ago

from The Rational Walk in finance

Warren Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway sixty years ago. It is possible that major announcements will be made at the annual meeting.

108

Business with Tariffs; Business as Usual

3 months ago

from Commoncog in finance

Every Asian Tycoon we’ve examined got their start in a world with tariffs. They could thrive and adapt under severe uncertainty. So can we. Here’s how...

20

The Potential Winners and Losers in Reshoring Supply Chains

3 months ago

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith in finance

Until values, priorities and incentives change, "the lifestyle you ordered is currently out of stock and on back order, with no estimate of a future...

14

Pathologically High-Margin Businesses

3 months ago

from The Diff in finance

Plus! Change My View; Capital Structure; Artificial Sycophancy; Elasticity; Internalizing Externalities

17

The Winners and Losers in 21st Century America

3 months ago

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith in finance

Statistical games can be played to mask the realities of our neofeudal economy, but "narrative control" can't obscure the facts or the banquet of...

17

When Step One is to Light Money on Fire and Measure How Fast it Burns

3 months ago

from The Diff in finance

Plus! Groupchats and Norms; Venture; Made in America; Real Estate Elasticity; Lagging Investments

20

Trump-proofing Canada means ending our dependence on SWIFT

3 months ago

from Moneyness in finance

It's time to stop staring into the headlights and respond to the fact that Canada is being eyed as a choice morsel by a much larger predator: our...

19

Longreads + Open Thread

3 months ago

from The Diff in finance

Movies, Scams, Decentralization, Reading, AI, Offline, Trade

26

Issue 82 – E-moluments

3 months ago

from Citation Needed in finance

As Celsius victims detail their devastation even under the weak crypto regulations of the past, the Trump administration continues to dismantle those...

39

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 8.1% Year-over-year due to Easter Timing

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 19 April As expected due to the Easter and Passover holidays, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative...

138

Do Chatbots Cannibalize Search? Or is it the Other Way Around?

3 months ago

from The Diff in finance

Plus! Crypto; Cheating; Crypto, Redux; Guidance; Ghost Apps

36

Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY Sales in March...

37

The Wile E. Coyote Recession

3 months ago

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith in finance

So where are corporate profits going to come from as globalization, price-gouging, planned obsolescence, shrinkflation and immiseration run out of...

53

U.S. Births Increased in 2024

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2024. The NCHS reports: The provisional number of births for the United...

31

Venture and Media

3 months ago

from The Diff in finance

Plus! Cluely; Big Tech Sees Like a State; Distribution; Student Loans and Demand Shocks; Rollups

29

MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.36% in March

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.36% in March The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan...

40

What's "Normal" in a Hyper-Normalized World?

3 months ago

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith in finance

Now that the entire economy depends on these hyper-normalized speculative bubbles for its "growth" and "wealth," there is a profound fear of a future...

33

Thinking-Things-Through Privilege

3 months ago

from The Diff in finance

Plus! Trade Negotiations; M&A; AI and IP; Consolidation; Sourcing

36

California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt:...

58

Buy the Dip: The Draw and Dangers of Contrarian Investing!

3 months ago

from Musings on Markets in finance

When markets are in free fall, there is a great deal of  advice that is meted out to investors, and one is to just buy the dip, i.e., buy beaten down...

31

Sunday Night Futures

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025 Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 20 and DOW futures are down 128 (fair value). WTI...

37

Vanguard as a Demand-Side Mystery

3 months ago

from Commoncog in finance

We study the rise of Vanguard, the index fund management company, as a case study of how customer demand is not always about pain.

33

TSA: Airline Travel up 1% YoY

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA. This data is as of April 16, 2025. Click...

37

A stupid decision to sell my rental property

3 months ago

from FIRE v London in finance

I sold my rental property last year, after owning it over 20 years. It’s a lovely property, worth around £1m, right in the heart of London – near the...

40

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts at 1.324 million Annual Rate in March

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. Housing and Demographics Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324...

46

Longreads + Open Thread

3 months ago

from The Diff in finance

Moon, Welch, Robinhood, Heterodoxy, Bots, Liquidity, Trade, Google

31

Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, April 21st ----- No major economic releases...

32

The Family Home: From Shelter to Asset to Liability

3 months ago

from oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith in finance

The deflation of asset bubbles and higher costs are foreseeable, but the magnitude of each is unpredictable. With the rise of financialized...

43

The Network School Fellowship

3 months ago

from balajis.com in finance

Anyone from anywhere can apply for $100k in funding at ns.com.

22

Housing and Demographics

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt: I’ll return to the above graph and discuss some of...

28

Does VIX Have Fundamentals?

3 months ago

from The Diff in finance

Plus! Customer Service; Latency; Corp Dev.; Scavengers; Broken Windows

31

Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to Jan and Feb core control retail sales. [Apr 17th...

40

Trump’s newest grift: Building a cryptocurrency empire while destroying its regulators

3 months ago

from Citation Needed in finance

Inside the Trump family’s sprawling crypto empire — from memecoins to mining — and how Trump is using presidential power to dismantle the regulators...

28

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 31.2% YoY

3 months ago

from Calculated Risk in finance

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they...