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Noahpinion

Noahpinion
Trade deficits do not make a country poorer There are real problems with trade deficits, but Trump doesn't understand what they are.
14 hours ago
Noahpinion
Tariffs: Another American act of intentional self-harm As Adam Smith said, "there is a great deal of ruin in a nation."
yesterday
Noahpinion
If you're in Tokyo, come join my hanami this Saturday! Not an actual blog post, just an invitation.
3 days ago
Noahpinion
How Brazil built a world-beating aircraft manufacturer A guest post by Pedro Franco.
4 days ago
Noahpinion
The latest episode of Mad King Trump How long before businesses get fed up?
5 days ago
Noahpinion
Understanding America's New Right Fighting for Western Civilization in someone else's back yard
a week ago
Noahpinion
If and when you live in a dictatorship, how will you know? Trump's power is far from absolute, but he's always trying to see what he can get away with.
a week ago
Noahpinion
Blue states don't build. Red states do. A timely repost, with some updates.
a week ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things: Japan Trip edition (#61) Trump and Social Security; San Francisco corruption; Phones making us dumb; Ukraine and drones;...
a week ago
9
a week ago
Trump and Social Security; San Francisco corruption; Phones making us dumb; Ukraine and drones; Abundance stuff; Indian industrial policy; Steve Glinert on CHIPS reform
Noahpinion
The "corporate feudalism" thing won't work Warrenite progressives are not going to catch populist fire by bashing corporations.
a week ago
Noahpinion
Dems need to moderate and fight There's no contradiction there.
2 weeks ago
Noahpinion
Book review: "Abundance" In which Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson offer a whole new way of thinking about political economy.
2 weeks ago
Noahpinion
I have written a book! It's called "Weeb Economy". But so far it's only in Japanese.
2 weeks ago
Noahpinion
It's time to start panicking about the national debt Trump and the Republicans are trying to make things even worse.
2 weeks ago
Noahpinion
China is trying to kneecap Indian manufacturing An attempt to head off its only future rival.
3 weeks ago
Noahpinion
Why America betrayed Europe There are lots of reasons, actually.
3 weeks ago
Noahpinion
There is no utopia waiting on the other side of Trump's economy It's just pain now in exchange for more pain later.
3 weeks ago
Noahpinion
This thing will fail Trump will not restore the "strong gods" of community, family, and faith.
3 weeks ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things: Bananas republic edition (#60) Trump's chaos; GDP and government spending; DOGE; AI and growth; The baby bust
3 weeks ago
Noahpinion
Trump takes a baseball bat to the U.S. economy Destroying Americans' livelihoods and wealth to satisfy the whims of a crazy ideology.
4 weeks ago
Noahpinion
Is China inventing big important things? More thoughts on a great civilization at its peak.
a month ago
Noahpinion
A sovereign crypto fund is a new way to pay out regime cronies Once again, we find that crypto's true innovation is enabling gray-market payments.
a month ago
Noahpinion
America is ruled by gangsters now Three takeaways from Trump's disastrous meeting with Zelensky.
a month ago
Noahpinion
Popular econ books: What to read, what not to read A long overdue list.
a month ago
Noahpinion
What happens when we gut federal science funding? An experiment I would prefer not to conduct.
a month ago
Noahpinion
How the Democrats can fight back against MAGA Return to the liberalism of 1992.
a month ago
Noahpinion
Only fools think Elon is incompetent Underestimate a man like this at your peril.
a month ago
Noahpinion
America is being sold out by its leaders If Trump and Elon think they can forge a grand right-wing alliance with China and Russia, they're...
a month ago
15
a month ago
If Trump and Elon think they can forge a grand right-wing alliance with China and Russia, they're heading for trouble.
Noahpinion
Japan, South Korea, and Poland need nuclear weapons immediately A repost, with some urgent updates.
a month ago
Noahpinion
One big thing the legacy media gets wrong Analysis is not "opinion".
a month ago
Noahpinion
It's time for Europe to stand up America is not coming to save you, but you have the power to save yourselves.
a month ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things: Chaos Blitz edition (#59) Trump's chaos blitz; Econ data isn't fake; China's tech cluster; Abundance ideas; AI and antitrust;...
a month ago
Noahpinion
Anti-anti-neoliberalism is also not enough We're never going back to the 1990s, and the Biden years have important things to teach us.
a month ago
Noahpinion
What's going to happen to Ukraine now? The most likely scenario is some form of Finlandization.
a month ago
Noahpinion
When are tariffs good? National security, infant industries, national champions, and some more unorthodox theories.
a month ago
Noahpinion
Trump starts to break things Tariffs on Canada and Mexico are bad news.
2 months ago
Noahpinion
Patrick Collison interview + at least five interesting things (#58) Patrick interviews me; the energy transition; Americans die young; family and fertility; educating...
2 months ago
Noahpinion
Too many Americans still fear the future Some progress is being made, but politics is getting in the way.
2 months ago
Noahpinion
Paul Krugman and Noah Smith have a chat In which we talk about Paul's departure from the NYT, Substack writing, Trump, the 1980s, the future...
2 months ago
21
2 months ago
In which we talk about Paul's departure from the NYT, Substack writing, Trump, the 1980s, the future of manufacturing, and more!
Noahpinion
Come watch my live chat with Paul Krugman today! Tune in at noon Pacific/3 PM Eastern
2 months ago
Noahpinion
Yes, reshoring American industry is possible Americans can make stuff, after all.
2 months ago
Noahpinion
Your memecoin is your slush fund Crypto is, in fact, about sending people money.
2 months ago
Noahpinion
Why I'm long-term bullish on the Middle East A bold prediction, to say the least.
2 months ago
Noahpinion
The Pettis Paradigm and the Second China Shock Will tariffs help rebalance the global economy (and the Chinese economy)?
2 months ago
Noahpinion
Should economists read Marx? Yes, but not for the reasons Marxists think.
2 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things: Red Tape edition (#57) NEPA; Carter's deregulations; targeted tariffs; YIMBY news; greedflation; a bad viral chart;...
2 months ago
Noahpinion
The Taiwan posts Three classics from the Noahpinion archive
2 months ago
Noahpinion
Trudeau was a poor steward of Canada's economy No one knows what ails Canada, but Trudeau didn't try very hard to fix it.
2 months ago
Noahpinion
How do we measure whether China's economy is "ahead" of America's? Comparing economies is an inexact science.
3 months ago
Noahpinion
The Players on the Eve of Destruction The insanity of war has returned to our world.
3 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things: Build Something, Dammit! (#56) Power vs. abundance; Chinese espionage; U.S. manufacturing woes; the growth of good jobs; Milei's...
3 months ago
Noahpinion
Five possible reasons China's productivity slowed down A repost, with some updates.
3 months ago
Noahpinion
Indian immigration is great for America This isn't ambiguous.
3 months ago
Noahpinion
Yes, Americans are much richer than Japanese people GDP is not a perfect guide to wealth, but it's pretty darn good.
3 months ago
Noahpinion
What are the checks and balances on the power of Elon Musk? The question we'll all be asking over the next year or more.
3 months ago
Noahpinion
Macroeconomics: The predator of foolish regimes One thing no ruler can control.
3 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things: Will of the Masses edition (#55) Abandoning X; Drone world; Asian voters' rightward shift; China and the Global South; Polycrisis;...
3 months ago
50
3 months ago
Abandoning X; Drone world; Asian voters' rightward shift; China and the Global South; Polycrisis; Illegal immigration's fiscal impact; Iranian power
Noahpinion
How we'll know if Trump is going to sell America out to China Keep an eye on the export controls. They are the key.
3 months ago
Noahpinion
How Paul Krugman changed the public face of economics He's a great economist, but he also changed how we talk about the subject.
3 months ago
Noahpinion
Insurance companies aren't the main villain of the U.S. health system It's mostly the providers overcharging you, not the middlemen.
3 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things: Nerdy economics edition (#54) The DBCFT; Construction productivity and regulation; Rationality and complexity; U.S. productivity...
4 months ago
41
4 months ago
The DBCFT; Construction productivity and regulation; Rationality and complexity; U.S. productivity growth; Demand-side inflation; Health care monopsony and innovation
Noahpinion
Manufacturing is a war now And the democracies are losing.
4 months ago
Noahpinion
No, you are not on Indigenous land Pieces of territory belong to institutions, not to racial groups.
4 months ago
Noahpinion
The best-case scenario for Trump's second term An optimistic Thanksgiving post.
4 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things: The new conservative era (#53) Conservative poll shift; Democratic machine politics; science and politics; some good news; better...
4 months ago
44
4 months ago
Conservative poll shift; Democratic machine politics; science and politics; some good news; better teachers; the AI slowdown; consumer confidence
Noahpinion
Four years of Noahpinion What happened to the world in 2024, and what I wrote about it
4 months ago
Noahpinion
What drove Asian and Hispanic voters to the right in 2024 A guest post by Dhaaruni Sreenivas.
4 months ago
Noahpinion
America doesn't really have a working class Why class politics is unlikely to succeed where identity politics failed.
4 months ago
Noahpinion
Why targeted tariffs are more effective than broad tariffs Something the Trump administration should probably think about.
4 months ago
Noahpinion
7 Reasons Democrats Should Be Optimistic About Their Chances in 2026 and 2028 A guest post by Wally Nowinski.
4 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things: Trump aftermath edition (#52) Bad election narratives; principles for the Democrats; slowing AI progress; rising life expectancy;...
4 months ago
40
4 months ago
Bad election narratives; principles for the Democrats; slowing AI progress; rising life expectancy; phones are bad; solar vs. nuclear
Noahpinion
The blue cities must be fixed If you want to govern the nation, you should first be able to govern San Francisco, New York, and...
4 months ago
53
4 months ago
If you want to govern the nation, you should first be able to govern San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles.
Noahpinion
Americans hate inflation more than they hate unemployment Lesson #2 from Trump's victory.
4 months ago
Noahpinion
Four reasons not to vote for Trump, and four reasons to vote for Harris Summing up my thoughts on the 2024 election.
5 months ago
Noahpinion
Why on Earth does Trump want to cancel the CHIPS Act?? A second Trump presidency would truly be a gift to Xi Jinping.
5 months ago
Noahpinion
Trumpism is kakistocracy A cult of personality prizes loyalty above competence, resulting in "rule by the worst".
5 months ago
Noahpinion
Democrats fixed many of the problems of the early 2020s It's nice to have leaders who hear what people care about and deliver results.
5 months ago
Noahpinion
Thinking about "temporary hardship" America needs austerity. But is Musk's plan the right kind of austerity?
5 months ago
Noahpinion
If Trump loses the election, our nation can finally rest Let's not bring back the wacky 2010s.
5 months ago
Noahpinion
On immigration, what Americans want is democratic control Nations - even democratic ones - are exclusive clubs. And that's OK.
5 months ago
Noahpinion
Why America's future could hinge on Elon Musk Iron Man, or Dr. Doom?
5 months ago
Noahpinion
Realistically, how much damage could Trump do to the U.S. economy? The biggest risks are all about debt and inflation.
5 months ago
Noahpinion
A better way to build a downtown It's time to learn a Japanese word: "zakkyo".
5 months ago
Noahpinion
EVs are just going to win Because they're a superior technology, and superior technologies win.
5 months ago
Noahpinion
The free world teeters on the edge of a knife If Trump is elected, there will be no liberal great powers left in the world.
5 months ago
Noahpinion
A Nobel for the big big questions Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson win a prize for their grand unified theory of development.
5 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things to start your week (#51) Falling obesity; the red-state boom; U.S. housing supply; men avoiding college; China's economic...
5 months ago
50
5 months ago
Falling obesity; the red-state boom; U.S. housing supply; men avoiding college; China's economic goals; implicit taxes on the poor; Garcia interviews Krugman and Cowen interviews Scanlon
Noahpinion
Announcing the winners of our semiconductor policy contest! Some good ideas in here.
5 months ago
Noahpinion
In which I rebut Nate Silver on the economy and Matt Yglesias on nuclear Bloggers love to argue.
5 months ago
Noahpinion
The Democrats are a strong party, the Republicans are a weak party It's Boss Tweed vs. Boss Tweet.
5 months ago
Noahpinion
Let us pause to appreciate the remarkable U.S. economy It really doesn't get much better than this, folks.
6 months ago
Noahpinion
Let's evaluate Kamala Harris' entire economic policy program! Fun!!
6 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things to start your week (#50) Permitting reform; industrial policy progress; China stimulus/bailouts; men and politics; wokeness;...
6 months ago
54
6 months ago
Permitting reform; industrial policy progress; China stimulus/bailouts; men and politics; wokeness; tariffs; a bad union demand
Noahpinion
Once again: Imports do not subtract from GDP I've explained it before, and I'll keep explaining it until the world understands.
6 months ago
Noahpinion
Strategies to secure America's supply chains A guest post by Yann Calvó López and Ben Golub.
6 months ago
Noahpinion
America's supply chains are a disaster waiting to happen A guest post by Yann Calvó López and Ben Golub.
6 months ago
Noahpinion
How will you save small midwestern towns without mass immigration? What really happens when a "flood of migrants" gets "dumped" on a small heartland town.
6 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for your weekend (#49) Degrowth, real and imagined; 90s taxes; China's banks; CHIPS Act bureaucrats; YIMBY education; the...
6 months ago
Noahpinion
The dark vision of America Persecuting groups of people to score political points is not OK.
6 months ago
Noahpinion
Harris needs to be Pennsylvania fracking's biggest champion Biden already boosted fracking. Harris needs to promise more of the same.
6 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for your weekend (#48) Information war; Chinese VC; land reform; India's garment industry; degrowth research; Trump vs....
6 months ago
54
6 months ago
Information war; Chinese VC; land reform; India's garment industry; degrowth research; Trump vs. Harris on deficits; good news
Noahpinion
Six ideas for Poland Poland is a developed country. But it can still get richer.
6 months ago
Noahpinion
The U.S. needs to pay more attention to electronic warfare A guest post by Steven Glinert.
6 months ago
Noahpinion
Why Can't the U.S. Build Ships? A guest post by Brian Potter of Construction Physics.
7 months ago
Noahpinion
How do you deal with real, actual Nazis? They come back every few decades, spreading the same old lies.
7 months ago
Noahpinion
Biden did stuff, and it looks like it's working so far Only one President has taken actual concrete steps to address U.S. industrial weakness vis-a-vis...
7 months ago
Noahpinion
Progressives need to learn to take the W Outrage is only one motivation for change, and it comes with a cost.
7 months ago
Noahpinion
Sizing up the New Axis A repost, more relevant than ever.
7 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things to start your week (#47) Germany's mistakes; U.S. political parties; the VC winter; austerity; science and politics; TikTok...
7 months ago
66
7 months ago
Germany's mistakes; U.S. political parties; the VC winter; austerity; science and politics; TikTok propaganda; desalination
Noahpinion
Why you should not ignore economists They aren't always right, but they almost always have something important to add.
7 months ago
Noahpinion
What's up with those revised job numbers? Government data revisions can be scary, but they actually aren't that hard to understand.
7 months ago
Noahpinion
A data-driven case for productivity optimism A guest post by Brian Albrecht of Economic Forces.
7 months ago
Noahpinion
Harris has the right idea on housing It has to be managed as both a consumer good and as an asset class.
7 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for your weekend (#46) Morning in America; Trump's bad vibes; Japan's chip industry; Biden and abundance; native-born...
7 months ago
46
7 months ago
Morning in America; Trump's bad vibes; Japan's chip industry; Biden and abundance; native-born employment; redistribution; transit costs
Noahpinion
Mass deportation would accomplish nothing Trump's signature policy would frighten Americans without improving the immigration situation.
7 months ago
Noahpinion
New Industrialist Roundup 2024 What people are writing about rebuilding America.
7 months ago
Noahpinion
How tariffs on China could help the world Looking for the silver lining in a messy policy.
7 months ago
Noahpinion
The Democrats' new sunny vibes Suddenly, the country has an opportunity to leave the madness of the 2010s behind.
8 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for your weekend (#45) Intel; Canada's economy; infrastructure and state capacity; East Asian development; race in America;...
8 months ago
77
8 months ago
Intel; Canada's economy; infrastructure and state capacity; East Asian development; race in America; corrupt nonprofits
Noahpinion
Why America fell behind in drones, and how to catch up agaon A guest post by Cat Orman and Jason Lu
8 months ago
Noahpinion
Who's "weird"? A campaign insult offers a window into American society in the 2020s.
8 months ago
Noahpinion
Why did the U.S. miss the battery revolution? We were early to the party on every other technological revolution, but we missed this one.
8 months ago
Noahpinion
Come see me speak about Japan! Plus: A bunch of fun posts I've written about Japanese urbanism and Japanese society.
8 months ago
Noahpinion
Why Trump (or Harris) might fail to stand up to China A very real possibility that more people need to be worried about.
8 months ago
Noahpinion
Yes, we still have to work The automated luxury paradise is still just science fiction.
8 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#44) Poland vs. China; smartphones; basic income; the soft landing; wages and automation; software and...
8 months ago
84
8 months ago
Poland vs. China; smartphones; basic income; the soft landing; wages and automation; software and inequality; immigrant doctors
Noahpinion
Don’t Rock the Vote Democrats are the party that benefits from low voter turnout. They just don’t know it yet. (Guest...
8 months ago
67
8 months ago
Democrats are the party that benefits from low voter turnout. They just don’t know it yet. (Guest post by Wally Nowinski)
Noahpinion
Bad and good arguments for industrial policy Has China invented a better way to run an advanced economy?
8 months ago
Noahpinion
Europe's fate is in Germany's hands now That's a scary thought, but not for the reason it used to be.
8 months ago
Noahpinion
There's not that much wealth in the world A little-understood fact.
8 months ago
Noahpinion
Skilled immigration is a national security priority A joint blog post by Noah and Minn Kim on America's need for a national skilled immigration...
8 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#43) Slop wars; Poland and Ukraine; AI bubble; MMT reversal;
8 months ago
Noahpinion
Energy Bell: The sketch of an idea How can we get America back to the forefront of energy research?
9 months ago
Noahpinion
Why has U.S. manufacturing productivity stagnated for over a decade? A few hypotheses about a very disturbing trend.
9 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things to start your week (#42) The end of Chevron deference; export controls; jerky American profs; basic income; economics of AI;...
9 months ago
79
9 months ago
The end of Chevron deference; export controls; jerky American profs; basic income; economics of AI; solar power uses; Global South tariffs; Gen Z wages; Stiglitz
Noahpinion
The elemental foe Lifting humanity out of poverty is Job #1.
9 months ago
Noahpinion
The age of SASEA South Asia and Southeast Asia are globalization's next frontier.
9 months ago
Noahpinion
Yes, of course crime is way down The people telling you crime isn't falling are feeding you a line.
9 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for your weekend (#41) Soviet America (or not); the energy revolution; Trump's tax cuts; the Build-Nothing Country; macro...
9 months ago
Noahpinion
Give us your ideas on how to deal with Chinese chips! A policy competition from the Federation of American Scientists, Chris Miller, ChinaTalk, and me
9 months ago
Noahpinion
China's demographics will be fine through mid-century There is no imminent crisis.
9 months ago
Noahpinion
Why some franchises go downhill while others stay great A little break from our typical economics fare.
9 months ago
Noahpinion
Is the West falling behind in science? China is now the leader in applied physical sciences. How can the U.S. and its allies catch up?
9 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#40) Europe's Greens; jobs and the Great Replacement; tariffs and development; rent control; service...
9 months ago
Noahpinion
Three holes in the U.S.' economic strategy against China Legacy chips, drones, and coordination with allies.
9 months ago
Noahpinion
Decade of the Battery A repost with some updates.
9 months ago
Noahpinion
Trump and inflation There are several good reasons to be worried.
10 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#39) Modi's third term; Biden and the border; good news on climate; nonprofits being bad; interest rates...
10 months ago
Noahpinion
How much can you really learn about a country from visiting it? Not as much as people think.
10 months ago
Noahpinion
Happy fun Cold War 2 update It's getting a little warmer out there.
10 months ago
Noahpinion
The case of the angry history postdoc Elite overproduction spotted in the wild.
10 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things to start your week (#38) WW2 production; "Neopopulism"; fake science; desire modification; deregulation ideas
10 months ago
Noahpinion
A pivotal moment for Japan's national defense A guest post by Jonathan Grady
10 months ago
Noahpinion
In which British writers scold America on trade If you don't acknowledge the point of tariffs, how can you hope to criticize them?
10 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things to start your week (#37) The U.S. as trade war leader; Russia/China infowar; Biden and inflation; Yglesias on industrial...
10 months ago
86
10 months ago
The U.S. as trade war leader; Russia/China infowar; Biden and inflation; Yglesias on industrial policy; How to get immigrants to the Rust Belt; How to lose money
Noahpinion
Why is China producing so many export goods, anyway? Six theories.
10 months ago
Noahpinion
The Big Tariffs are here Biden just slapped a 100% tax on Chinese car imports. Here's what that will and won't accomplish.
10 months ago
86
10 months ago
Biden just slapped a 100% tax on Chinese car imports. Here's what that will and won't accomplish.
Noahpinion
The death (again) of the internet as we know it A few big changes are making the online world a more boring place to hang out.
10 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for your weekend (#36) The silent majority and the Palestine protests; immigration is fine; batteries make solar work;...
10 months ago
82
10 months ago
The silent majority and the Palestine protests; immigration is fine; batteries make solar work; building warships in Japan; the decels of the Right
Noahpinion
Japan is not a xenophobic country It has a substantial amount of immigration, as well as pro-immigration policies and attitudes.
11 months ago
Noahpinion
America's semiconductor policy is missing a key piece A guest post by Steven Glinert.
11 months ago
Noahpinion
The positive case for Joe Biden It's not just about being anti-Trump.
11 months ago
Noahpinion
Who's afraid of East Asian management culture? TSMC's difficulties in Arizona aren't due to the mystical superiority of Confucian values.
11 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#35) Chinese defense spending, activists vs. normies, corporate diversity, phones in schools,
11 months ago
Noahpinion
Biden is right that we need to raise taxes But his plan needs a lot of work.
11 months ago
Noahpinion
What America needs to do now on national security The Ukraine-and-TikTok bill is a good start. Here are five more things we need to work on.
11 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things to start your week (#34) Woke capital, university rigidity, social media toxicity, SUVs and pedestrians, and crime and...
11 months ago
Noahpinion
How Latin America started to beat inequality It can be done.
11 months ago
Noahpinion
Five things to be optimistic about in America today Enough doom and gloom, let's allow ourselves a moment of happiness.
11 months ago
Noahpinion
Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense Writing about military spending is difficult.
11 months ago
Noahpinion
Sizing up the New Axis A timely repost.
11 months ago
Noahpinion
Americans are still not worried enough about the risk of world war In which I try to be Gandalf instead of Cassandra.
11 months ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things to start your week (#33) TSMC Arizona back on track, drawing arrows on graphs, the downsides of inclusionary zoning, why...
12 months ago
113
12 months ago
TSMC Arizona back on track, drawing arrows on graphs, the downsides of inclusionary zoning, why people hate inflation, and interesting ideas about market power
Noahpinion
The U.S. would be insane to go it alone on trade and manufacturing Punching down on our allies will not help the middle class.
12 months ago
Noahpinion
The perverse incentives of euthanasia Suggesting that people die is not a good way of saving taxpayer money.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Try patriotism A repost, with some updates.
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for your weekend (#32) The bridge disaster, Daniel Kahneman, Biden and nuclear power, ebbing unrest, Bay Area...
a year ago
49
a year ago
The bridge disaster, Daniel Kahneman, Biden and nuclear power, ebbing unrest, Bay Area "progressives", and cancer detection
Noahpinion
Secrets of Japanese urbanism (part 2) A review of "Emergent Tokyo", by Jorge Almazan and Studiolab
a year ago
Noahpinion
Market-rate housing will make your city cheaper Yes, market-rate!
a year ago
Noahpinion
Go read some Vernor Vinge R.I.P. to my favorite science fiction author
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#31) Indian poverty reduction, America's friends, Canada's economy, Europe grows a spine, and Japan's...
a year ago
Noahpinion
How we could return to the productivity growth of the 1990s A guest post by Preston Mui.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI Comparative advantage is very subtle, but incredibly powerful.
a year ago
Noahpinion
What just happened in San Francisco politics? A guest post by Armand Domalewski
a year ago
Noahpinion
Trump just rug-pulled the China hawks on TikTok The CCP and its allies have bought themselves a new champion.
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five things for your weekend (#30) "Are we better off", the economy of Dune, energy abundance, wacky polls, doomscrolling, anger about...
a year ago
49
a year ago
"Are we better off", the economy of Dune, energy abundance, wacky polls, doomscrolling, anger about interest rates, and visualizing urban density
Noahpinion
Chinasplaining will backfire A review of "China's World View", by David Daokui Li
a year ago
Noahpinion
Did immigration bring down inflation? I'm highly skeptical of this theory, but it's still quite interesting.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Why small developers are getting squeezed out of the housing market A guest post by Coby Lefkowitz
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#29) AI might help the middle class, Americans can afford food, narratives about science, Europe's...
a year ago
42
a year ago
AI might help the middle class, Americans can afford food, narratives about science, Europe's defense industry, and Native American YIMBYism
Noahpinion
New technologies, new totalitarians Thanks to smartphones, social media, and globalization, liberalism faces a new and terrifying kind...
a year ago
33
a year ago
Thanks to smartphones, social media, and globalization, liberalism faces a new and terrifying kind of opponent.
Noahpinion
This is not a good way to fight racism in America Building a multiracial society is hard work. Don't be tempted by shortcuts.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Japan isn't quite "back", but it has a fighting chance Here are some ideas for what it can do to be truly "back".
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things to start your week (#28) Cultural stagnation, pedestrian deaths, evidence on decoupling, the benefits of education, and why...
a year ago
36
a year ago
Cultural stagnation, pedestrian deaths, evidence on decoupling, the benefits of education, and why philosophers read the classics
Noahpinion
We’re entering a golden age of engineering biology A guest post by Joshua March and Kasia Gora
a year ago
Noahpinion
Pakistan needs a plan The country can't go on like this. It needs stability, privatization, education, foreign investment,...
a year ago
59
a year ago
The country can't go on like this. It needs stability, privatization, education, foreign investment, and peace.
Noahpinion
A bunch of handy charts about climate change A couple dozen pictures are worth a couple thousand words.
a year ago
Noahpinion
The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland When Putin talks, we should listen.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Do poor countries need a new development strategy? Bangladesh and Southeast Asia are defying the economists who say industrialization is dead.
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#27) Chaos Climbers, gender wars, union wars, social media toxicity, a good spending bill, and urban...
a year ago
Noahpinion
Economic losses for our allies are not wins for the U.S. Stop comparing ourselves to countries who are on our side.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Biden should run on a message of abundance Things are going pretty well in America, and Biden's policies have largely helped.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Interview: Sarah C. Paine A scholar of the 20th century explains the conflicts of the 21st.
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for your weekend (#26) The U.S. economy, U.S. energy, Millennial wealth, medical administrators, and standardized tests
a year ago
Noahpinion
Will China squander its moment in the sun? A great civilization could be a lot greater, if its leaders gave up their obsession with control.
a year ago
Noahpinion
A vote for Trump is a vote for chaos Let's leave the 2010s in the past where they belong.
a year ago
Noahpinion
The California Forever project is a great idea The implementation will be very tricky, but there's a big opportunity here.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Is U.S. industrial policy learning from its mistakes? I hope so, because mistakes are being made.
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things to start your week (#25) Maternal mortality, "living paycheck to paycheck", media negativity, diffusion of the tech industry,...
a year ago
24
a year ago
Maternal mortality, "living paycheck to paycheck", media negativity, diffusion of the tech industry, and the effect of corporate tax cuts
Noahpinion
Techno-optimism for 2024 What you should be excited about
a year ago
Noahpinion
People's Park and the Great American Infill After the 1970s, we agreed to all let each other have our space. That's over.
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for your weekend (#24) Economists had a good 2023, degrowthers promising growth, the troubles in the humanities, U.S....
a year ago
20
a year ago
Economists had a good 2023, degrowthers promising growth, the troubles in the humanities, U.S. redistribution, and defense production
Noahpinion
All futurism is Afrofuturism A repost, with some optimistic updates.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Toward a shallower future Adversity isn't worth the price of adversity.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Hispanics as the new Irish A historical analogy to help us understand the present moment.
a year ago
Noahpinion
In defense of science fiction New technology is usually good, and it's good for sci-fi to inspire it.
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things to start your week (#23) SF's Market Street debacle, the debate over real wages, why U.S. growth has gotten smoother, TikTok...
a year ago
74
a year ago
SF's Market Street debacle, the debate over real wages, why U.S. growth has gotten smoother, TikTok as a propaganda engine, and California homelessness
Noahpinion
My sci-fi novel recommendations A repost with some updates, just in time for the holidays.
a year ago
Noahpinion
What the Solow Model can teach us about China Economists knew back in the 1950s that a country can't build its way to infinite wealth.
a year ago
Noahpinion
How did the U.S. achieve a soft landing? Four simple theories.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Six reasons chipmakers should put their fabs in Japan It has every resource the semiconductor industry needs.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Some thoughts on where the war in Ukraine is headed And some perspective on what's happened already.
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#22) Test score collapse, triumph of the vibes, U.S. dependence on China, the benefits of upzoning,...
a year ago
14
a year ago
Test score collapse, triumph of the vibes, U.S. dependence on China, the benefits of upzoning, immigrants and jobs, and a world at war
Noahpinion
Uphold territorial integrity An organizing principle for U.S. power in the 21st century.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Car wars A flood of cheap Chinese imports is upsetting the global industrial order.
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#21) Saudi oil, delayed economic optimism, the EV revolution, U.S. education performance, Indian...
a year ago
18
a year ago
Saudi oil, delayed economic optimism, the EV revolution, U.S. education performance, Indian industrialization, and Chinese urbanism
Noahpinion
Stop saying "there is no decoupling". There is! Decoupling will take time, and it won't look like the Iron Curtain, but it's happening.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Vibes vs. data It's asymmetric warfare out there.
a year ago
Noahpinion
The U.S. must not ignore Indonesia We have the opportunity to befriend an Asian country with a huge population, a large and growing...
a year ago
14
a year ago
We have the opportunity to befriend an Asian country with a huge population, a large and growing economy, and a strategic location.
Noahpinion
At least five things for your Thanksgiving weekend (#20) The OpenAI coup, "deaths of despair", Japan's stagnation, solar panel waste, and the Inequality Wars
a year ago
Noahpinion
Feeling strangely optimistic about Egypt It has many of the building blocks for a successful industrialization story.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Three years of Noahpinion What happened to the world in 2023, and what I wrote about it
a year ago
Noahpinion
The Roaring 20s are back on track A healthy economy, strong productivity growth, and a continuing tech boom.
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five things to finish your week (#19) Real wages, why North Korea is poor, China's stalled catch-up, the economics of social media, AI...
a year ago
75
a year ago
Real wages, why North Korea is poor, China's stalled catch-up, the economics of social media, AI takes some jobs, and a comic about rabbits
Noahpinion
The Super-Scary Theory of the 21st Century (repost) The haunting specter of techno-authoritarianism has only gotten more haunting
a year ago
Noahpinion
Singapore urbanism Thoughts from a visit to the solarpunk city.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Liberalism is losing the information war Because it's refusing to fight.
a year ago
Noahpinion
How Ireland got so rich Once an underdog, the Emerald Isle is now on top.
a year ago
Noahpinion
The Middle East is getting older Why I'm optimistic about the waning of conflict in the region.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Asia is much more important to U.S. interests than the Middle East We need to prioritize, and our priorities should be clear.
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things to start your week (#18) Recession illusions, China's military buildup, industrial policy and wages, rethinking corporate...
a year ago
13
a year ago
Recession illusions, China's military buildup, industrial policy and wages, rethinking corporate tax, tightening export controls, and an interview with Darrell Owens
Noahpinion
Does the notion of a "Global South" still make any sense? There are really four Global Souths.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Great news about American wealth Regular Americans are getting richer.
a year ago
Noahpinion
The American socialist worldview is just totally broken (repost) Plus a new update showing how right I was.
a year ago
Noahpinion
America needs a bigger, better bureaucracy They're from the government, and they really are here to help.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Thoughts on techno-optimism What it means to me, and why I support it.
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#17) Techno-optimism, the mighty U.S. economy, Chinese real estate, slavery's economic effects, and the...
a year ago
14
a year ago
Techno-optimism, the mighty U.S. economy, Chinese real estate, slavery's economic effects, and the danger of hate on social media. Plus, rescue rabbits.
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for the end of your week (#16) Michael Lewis and SBF, how to win Cold War 2, American manufacturing, Target and shoplifting, and...
a year ago
Noahpinion
A Nobel for the story of women in the workforce How Claudia Goldin brought all the threads together.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Western leftists have lost the plot Gleeful support for the massacre of innocents is simply inhumane.
a year ago
Noahpinion
A three-state solution is the only viable future for Israel and the Palestinians Ethnic cleansing is off the table, and non-contiguous states just don't work.
a year ago
Noahpinion
You're not going to like what comes after Pax Americana Welcome to the jungle.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Don't be a decel Technological progress must be harnessed, not fought
a year ago
Noahpinion
How China's "debt traps" actually work Raiding the Global South like a piggy bank.
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for your weekend (#15) Working-class wealth, the education gap, zero-sum thinking, data uncertainty, and indigenous...
a year ago
Noahpinion
What if Xi Jinping isn't that competent? (repost) Plus a new update showing how right I was.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Why do economists get paid more than sociologists? An economic explanation.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Argentina's macroeconomic situation is even worse up close A guest post by Karl T. Muth
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#14) Commercial real estate doom, education polarization vs. racial polarization, China's dodgy GDP...
a year ago
53
a year ago
Commercial real estate doom, education polarization vs. racial polarization, China's dodgy GDP numbers, phonics, and Russian nationalism
Noahpinion
An Age of Austerity is probably on the way It's not the 2010s anymore.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Who's afraid of the Huawei Mate 60 Pro? Export controls were never going to make China's semiconductor industry vanish.
a year ago
Noahpinion
How not to be fooled by viral charts Part 1: How to spot misinformation, mistakes, and meaningless data
a year ago
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for your weekend (#13) Climate messaging, antitrust, Chinese consumption, the Fed and inflation, marriage and happiness,...
a year ago
11
a year ago
Climate messaging, antitrust, Chinese consumption, the Fed and inflation, marriage and happiness, historical data, and some Star Trek recommendations
Noahpinion
Our climate change debates are out of date Solar and batteries are going to win, and our thinking needs to adjust accordingly.
a year ago
Noahpinion
The danger of another American civil war is low Re-upping some arguments I've made before.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Is it time for the Revenge of the Normies? An optimistic take on technology and inequality.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Interview: Jean Twenge, psychologist In which we talk all about generational differences, Millennial angst, and the effects of social...
a year ago
18
a year ago
In which we talk all about generational differences, Millennial angst, and the effects of social media and cell phones
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#12) The college shakeout, China vs. its developing neighbors, Chinese zombie companies, more fun YIMBY...
a year ago
12
a year ago
The college shakeout, China vs. its developing neighbors, Chinese zombie companies, more fun YIMBY stuff, and the victory of the Melting Pot
Noahpinion
Decoupling isn't phoney The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself, and it's mostly not Biden's doing.
a year ago
Noahpinion
BRICS is fake It's not an anti-NATO, it's not going to replace the dollar, and it's not going to control global...
a year ago
57
a year ago
It's not an anti-NATO, it's not going to replace the dollar, and it's not going to control global economic growth.
Noahpinion
At least five interesting things for the middle of your week (#11) "Bullshit jobs", racial depolarization, the YIMBY-union alliance, China's last boosters, Biden's...
a year ago
19
a year ago
"Bullshit jobs", racial depolarization, the YIMBY-union alliance, China's last boosters, Biden's foreign policy, low-carbon steel, and Javier Milei
Noahpinion
Why China's economy ran off the rails A short, simplistic, but fairly reasonable story.
a year ago
Noahpinion
A few economists are starting to think seriously about industrial policy But not enough researchers are paying attention, and we only know a little so far.
a year ago
Noahpinion
The economics of "Rich Men North of Richmond" It made some good points, and some not-so-good points.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Why skilled immigration (usually) benefits both countries When to worry about brain drain, and when not to worry.
a year ago
Noahpinion
"I'm cute I'm punk rock" A guest post by Pourteaux.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Can unions and industrial policy coexist? They had better learn how to, and quickly.
a year ago
Noahpinion
The George Floyd protests were not a civil war (repost) And the less we collectively remember them as one, the better.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Comparing "Morning in America" with 2023 Are we better off?
a year ago
Noahpinion
Interview: Heather Boushey, economist and member of the Council of Economic Advisers In which we talk all about Bidenomics.
a year ago
Noahpinion
How homogeneous is Japan really? (repost) It depends on what you mean by "homogeneity".
a year ago
Noahpinion
If this is a bad economy, please tell me what a good economy would look like We should acknowledge that things are going well, even as we continue to look for problems to solve.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Uh, guys, we really should think about spending more on defense That's not a message many people want to hear, but it's true.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Mike Bird and Noah Smith debate industrial policy In which we hash out at least a few of our differences.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Book Review: "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" Peter Zeihan gives us his vision of the collapse of globalization.
a year ago
Noahpinion
The China 2023 series All the posts in one handy list
a year ago
Noahpinion
What should China do to revive its economy? There are a couple of aces that the government hasn't yet played.
a year ago
Noahpinion
No, NEPA really is a problem for clean energy A guest post by Aidan Mackenzie and Santi Ruiz
a year ago
Noahpinion
Refusing to teach kids math will not improve equity We have public schools for a reason.
a year ago
Noahpinion
The pushback against industrial policy has begun So far, it's a vague broadside instead of a targeted criticism.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Grading the economic schools of thought Who got the 2020s inflation right?
a year ago
Noahpinion
Interview: Chris Miller, historian and author of "Chip War" In which I consult an expert on the battle to control the semiconductor industry.
a year ago
Noahpinion
California needs real math education, not gimmicks A guest post by Armand Domalewski.
a year ago
Noahpinion
China at the peak The country's rise is complete, but don't expect a rapid decline.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Who cares about the Ivy League? (repost) Too much of our education discourse focuses on a handful of tiny elite schools.
a year ago
Noahpinion
The New 1970s The U.S. is a confused, unsettled nation. But green shoots are quietly sprouting.
a year ago
Noahpinion
The student debt revolt failed, but Millennials will be fine My generation will bear some minor economic scars into our prosperous middle age.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Maximum Canada is happening Canada has a nation-building population strategy. Does America?
a year ago
Noahpinion
The end of the "vibecession"? Maybe people are being irrationally pessimistic. Or maybe it's just all about real wages.
a year ago
Noahpinion
Indiamerica A new quasi-alliance is born, but there are still some challenges to overcome.
a year ago