Full Width [alt+shift+f] Shortcuts [alt+shift+k]
Sign Up [alt+shift+s] Log In [alt+shift+l]
49

The forecasting fallacy

from Articles - Alex Murrell [alt+shift+b] in startups

Marketers are prone to a prediction. You’ll find them in the annual tirade of trend decks. In the PowerPoint projections of self-proclaimed prophets. In the feeds of forecasters and futurists. To understand the extent of our forecasting fascination, I analysed the websites of three management consultancies. In total, these three companies’ make just shy of 15,000 predictions stretching out over the next 30 years. I believe the vast majority of these to be not forecasts but fantasies. Snake oil dressed up as science. Fiction masquerading as fact. This article assesses how predictions have performed in five fields. It argues that poor projections have propagated throughout our society and proliferated throughout our industry. It argues that our fixation with forecasts is fundamentally flawed. So instead of focussing on the future, let’s take a moment to look at the predictions of the past. Let’s see how our projections panned out.
14th Sep 2020

Stay updated

Get a weekly newsletter with the top 5 articles worth reading every week.

More from Articles - Alex Murrell

Marketing’s misleading metric

Perverse incentives, and the unintended consequences that flow from them, can be found on every continent, in every time, and in every industry. And marketing is no different. This article argues that a malevolent metric sits at the heart of many marketing discussions and decisions. I believe that the many marketers who prioritise this metric seek to capture value, but unintentionally destroy it.

14th Aug 2025 • 46 votes
Thinking rationally about emotion

In advertising, using emotion is entirely logical. Creative agencies have made this case consistently. But in 2013 Les Binet and Peter Field bought some much-needed data to the discussion. In their seminal report, The Long and The Short of It, the duo analysed 30 years of IPA effectiveness award submissions. The study found that emotional campaigns outperformed rational campaigns on every brand and business metrics that had been measured. But why is this? This article aims to answer this seeming simple question. It argues that emotional, brand-building communications are more effective because they attract more attention, create stronger memories and are more likely to be shared.

20th Aug 2024 • 135 votes
The age of average (encore)

The shift to music streaming has led to songs getting shorter, music getting less melodically diverse and lyrics getting more repetitive. Or to put it another way, just as our visual culture has become more homogeneous, so too has the music that accompanies it. Let’s run through these arguments one by one.

21st Mar 2024 • 129 votes
The age of average

In the early 1990s, two Russian artists named Vitaly Komar and Alexander Melamid hired a market research firm to survey the public on what they wanted in a work of art. Across 11 countries they then set about painting a piece that reflected the results. Each piece was intended to be a unique a collaboration with the people of a different country and culture. But it didn’t quite go to plan. Every picture looked the same. 30 years after the “People’s Choice” series, it seems the landscapes which Komar and Melamid painted have become the landscapes in which we live. From film to fashion and architecture to advertising, creative fields have become dominated and defined by convention and cliché. Distinctiveness has died. In every field we look at, we find that everything looks the same. Welcome to the age of average. Let’s dive in.

20th Mar 2023 • 73 votes
How to ride a recession

A storm is coming. In 2020 Britain suffered its deepest recession in over 300 years. Two years later and the UK’s economic picture is not much prettier. This article argues that whilst recessions are a threat to some businesses, they are an opportunity for others. It argues that brands can not only survive a downturn but thrive in one. It explores five principles that will help your brand be one that finds strength in the slowdown. The principles will help you increase your dominance during a downturn. They will help you be one of the 9% of companies who come out of the recession stronger than you went in.

2nd Aug 2022 • 54 votes

More in startups

Are You Operating Out of Fear or Joy?

Scarcity and survival keep you from being your best.

3 days ago • 4 votes
The frontier labs launch election war rooms

An old playbook is back for the deepfake era. Is it working?

3 days ago • 1 votes
Running Dry

If you haven’t subscribed to Where’s Your Ed At, now’s the best time. I’ve extended the sale — 10% off of the $70-a-year subscription for life (click here!) — for new subscribers for another week. It’s a

4 days ago • 1 votes
Anthropic’s moat is Claude

The bull case for Anthropic’s IPO.

5 days ago • 6 votes
Google Earnings, Facebook Déjà Vu, The Agent Play

Google's earnings miss looks a lot like Facebook's, and that's a credit to Google. The company is being more aggressive than they get credit for.

5 days ago • 1 votes
📚 BoredReading

You seem to be enjoying this.

Join free to unlock everything.

Create free account

Already have an account? Sign in