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Overcoming Bias

Overcoming Bias
Federal Futarchy Futarchy is a new financial-market-based form of governance.
5 days ago
Overcoming Bias
Celebrity v CEO v Politician Why are celebrities, CEOs, and politicians three different types of people who don’t overlap much?
a week ago
Overcoming Bias
Gender Norms Are Complex, Opaque Wondering how to make clear our cultural drift problem, it occurred to me that historical fiction,...
a week ago
15
a week ago
Wondering how to make clear our cultural drift problem, it occurred to me that historical fiction, especially using time travel, could make vivid how key norms and values have actually changed greatly over time, and not always in obviously good ways.
Overcoming Bias
Beware Shared Basic Value Changes Most of our activities can be seen as nested plans, to achieve nested goals.
2 weeks ago
Overcoming Bias
What Would Socrates Do? Christians often ask themselves, as a guide to living, “What would Jesus do?” In her new book Open...
2 weeks ago
28
2 weeks ago
Christians often ask themselves, as a guide to living, “What would Jesus do?” In her new book Open Socrates, my podcast-cohost Agnes Callard suggests we instead ask “What would Socrates do?”
Overcoming Bias
Toward More Direct Signals As I’ve attributed a large fraction of human behaviors to signaling incentives, I feel I should...
3 weeks ago
28
3 weeks ago
As I’ve attributed a large fraction of human behaviors to signaling incentives, I feel I should address a key signaling question, about which I was recently reminded.
Overcoming Bias
Fear Change Evolution in animals selects not only for static features, like claws, but also for behaviors that...
3 weeks ago
23
3 weeks ago
Evolution in animals selects not only for static features, like claws, but also for behaviors that change with context.
Overcoming Bias
Feels Gone Wrong The films A Complete Unknown, on Bob Dylan, and In Restless Dreams, on Paul Simon, make vivid to me...
3 weeks ago
37
3 weeks ago
The films A Complete Unknown, on Bob Dylan, and In Restless Dreams, on Paul Simon, make vivid to me the huge emotional appeal of becoming a musician like them.
Overcoming Bias
What Culture Can You Trust? Star Wars came out when I was 17, and made a big impression on me; I loved it.
a month ago
Overcoming Bias
Decision Selection Bias As futarchy interest and activity are way up lately, this seems a good time to elaborate on one of...
a month ago
28
a month ago
As futarchy interest and activity are way up lately, this seems a good time to elaborate on one of its most technical issues, one that @metaproph3t also discussed recently: decision selection bias.
Overcoming Bias
What Priority The Innocent? It is good if criminal law avoids punishing the innocent.
a month ago
Overcoming Bias
Conquest and Liberation of Academia During my graduate studies (’93-97), I looked at the history of prizes in science.
a month ago
Overcoming Bias
Hail Jeffrey Wernick I started to write about prediction markets in 1988, and not until 1999 about using conditional...
a month ago
18
a month ago
I started to write about prediction markets in 1988, and not until 1999 about using conditional markets to make org decisions.
Overcoming Bias
Arntz-Gray & I Talk Feminism At 6:30-8p ET today, I’ll be talking with Regan Arntz-Gray on
a month ago
Overcoming Bias
The Two Big Games Imagine a business meeting which will decide if a new project goes forward, or decide key priorities...
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
Imagine a business meeting which will decide if a new project goes forward, or decide key priorities about it.
Overcoming Bias
Culture Status Report I’ve been focused on cultural drift for about nine months now, and the probability estimates in my...
2 months ago
16
2 months ago
I’ve been focused on cultural drift for about nine months now, and the probability estimates in my last post make this a good time to take stock.
Overcoming Bias
Cultural Scenario Probabilities On Oct 25 I posted on the rankings given by polls on 16 cultural drift scenarios re their relative...
2 months ago
17
2 months ago
On Oct 25 I posted on the rankings given by polls on 16 cultural drift scenarios re their relative likelihood, desirability, and ease of influence.
Overcoming Bias
Love And War And Status “All is Fair in Love and War” - common saying
2 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Futarchy Futurism I have often taken on the role of econ futurist, analyzing the social consequences of particular...
2 months ago
14
2 months ago
I have often taken on the role of econ futurist, analyzing the social consequences of particular future techs.
Overcoming Bias
No Meta Status Orgs In health and medicine, we have many government agencies, and private philanthropies, devoted to...
2 months ago
7
2 months ago
In health and medicine, we have many government agencies, and private philanthropies, devoted to many specific medical conditions, and also to studying and reforming medicine in general, at a meta level.
Overcoming Bias
Beware Policy Abstraction The recent US presidential election should be fresh enough in your memory to let you directly...
2 months ago
8
2 months ago
The recent US presidential election should be fresh enough in your memory to let you directly confirm that the issues focused on there were biased in two key ways.
Overcoming Bias
Tension-Filled Black Holes Most matter pushes against nearby matter, via a positive “pressure.” That’s why Earth holds its...
2 months ago
6
2 months ago
Most matter pushes against nearby matter, via a positive “pressure.” That’s why Earth holds its shape, instead of collapsing down to a point mass.
Overcoming Bias
How Every Empire Falls On the radio yesterday, I heard the soulful song That’s How Every Empire Falls, written by RB Morris...
3 months ago
8
3 months ago
On the radio yesterday, I heard the soulful song That’s How Every Empire Falls, written by RB Morris sometime before 2005, and performed at various times by Morris, John Prine, and Marianne Faithfull.
Overcoming Bias
Prioritizing Concrete Proposals I think often about the non-immediate future, and wonder how to best allocate effort to make that...
3 months ago
4
3 months ago
I think often about the non-immediate future, and wonder how to best allocate effort to make that future better. And the first steps in this process are often to identify interesting classes of scenarios, and then estimate their desirability, chances, and ease of influence.
Overcoming Bias
Drift Poll Winner: Rational Culture Over the last day, I did two sets of polls comparing 16 cultural drift scenarios (detailed here) re...
3 months ago
11
3 months ago
Over the last day, I did two sets of polls comparing 16 cultural drift scenarios (detailed here) re their likelihood and desirability. (I later added influence.) Here are best fit priorities (relative to 100 max), sorted by priority sum:
Overcoming Bias
Our Authoritarian Default Many intellectuals, and intellectual wannabes, would, if pressed accept that UFOs seem sufficiently...
3 months ago
6
3 months ago
Many intellectuals, and intellectual wannabes, would, if pressed accept that UFOs seem sufficiently puzzling to justify more careful study.
Overcoming Bias
Beware Value Dashboards Vehicles like cars, planes, and boats generally need a) an engine to push them forward, b) steering...
3 months ago
8
3 months ago
Vehicles like cars, planes, and boats generally need a) an engine to push them forward, b) steering to direct their motions, and c) a driver to manage both.
Overcoming Bias
Who You Are Vs. What You Control If people can't think clearly about anything that has become part of their identity, then all other...
3 months ago
6
3 months ago
If people can't think clearly about anything that has become part of their identity, then all other things being equal, the best plan is to let as few things into your identity as possible.
Overcoming Bias
Capitalism, Govt Causes Culture Woes? Many have noticed a key time coincidence.
3 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Betrayed By Culture Like most humans ever, I love my culture.
3 months ago
Overcoming Bias
Culture Drift Predicts Decadence Babies are naturally pretty selfish, lazy, and present-oriented.
3 months ago