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Where the Wild Things Aren't We tell our children that weirdness is a blessing in disguise. That’s our fantasy, not theirs.
a month ago
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Get In, Weirdos
a month ago
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Can We Build a Five Gigawatt Data Center? By 2030, leading AI labs will need data centers so massive they will require the power equivalent of...
a month ago
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a month ago
By 2030, leading AI labs will need data centers so massive they will require the power equivalent of some of America’s largest cities. Will they be able to find it?
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Rarely is the Question Asked: Is Our Children Learning? Across the world, more students than ever are in school. But it’s not clear that they're learning...
2 months ago
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2 months ago
Across the world, more students than ever are in school. But it’s not clear that they're learning more while there — or if that’s even the goal.
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The Art of Asking Questions Everyone seems to agree that self-report questions are fraught with lies, biases, errors, and other...
2 months ago
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2 months ago
Everyone seems to agree that self-report questions are fraught with lies, biases, errors, and other inaccuracies. We all use them anyway. How can we ask them better?
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The Myth of the Loneliness Epidemic Are we really living through a uniquely lonely moment in American history? When it comes to...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
Are we really living through a uniquely lonely moment in American history? When it comes to friendship, this isn’t the first time that authorities have cried wolf.
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The Depths of Wikipedians A conversation about yogurt wars, German hymns, tropical cyclones, and the people who make Wikipedia...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
A conversation about yogurt wars, German hymns, tropical cyclones, and the people who make Wikipedia function.
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The Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Google Over the past two decades, Google has hosted two different internal platforms for predictions. Why...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
Over the past two decades, Google has hosted two different internal platforms for predictions. Why did the first one fail — and will the other endure?
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Rat Traps Does the rationalist blogosphere need to update?
3 months ago
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Looking Back at the Future of Humanity Institute The rise and fall of the influential, embattled Oxford research center that brought us the concept...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
The rise and fall of the influential, embattled Oxford research center that brought us the concept of existential risk.
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A Chinese Internet Phrasebook The latest slang on Weibo reveals a world of cynicism, ennui — and concrete pasta.
3 months ago
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Community Organizing
3 months ago
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A User’s Guide to Building a Subculture First, you’re going to need something to care about.
3 months ago
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The Biggest Community Development Program You’ve Never Heard Of The pilot of the Indian Community Development Program — among the first holistic development...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
The pilot of the Indian Community Development Program — among the first holistic development interventions to elicit widespread community participation — was a resounding success. Why did it fail to scale? And what can that tell us about development programs today?
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The Making of Community Notes The team that built X’s Community Notes talks about their design process and the philosophy behind...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
The team that built X’s Community Notes talks about their design process and the philosophy behind their approach to combatting false information on the platform.
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Why We Have Prison Gangs America’s prison gangs first emerged in the late 1950s. Why did they form? What keeps them going?...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
America’s prison gangs first emerged in the late 1950s. Why did they form? What keeps them going? And how do they govern themselves?
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Chimes at Midnight It’s been an idea for over three decades. How did the clock that will run for 10,000 years become a...
3 months ago
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3 months ago
It’s been an idea for over three decades. How did the clock that will run for 10,000 years become a reality?
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The Wrong Kind of City? How much can the way cities grow tell us about the economic trajectory of their countries? According...
5 months ago
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5 months ago
How much can the way cities grow tell us about the economic trajectory of their countries? According to the father of modern sociology, quite a lot.
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Culture Studies Montessori classrooms don’t have much in common with the Jesuit colleges of early modern Europe. But...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Montessori classrooms don’t have much in common with the Jesuit colleges of early modern Europe. But students in both settings learn more than a core curriculum — instead they’re taught a distinctive culture. And then they pass it on.
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Developmental Editing
6 months ago
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How Long Til We’re All on Ozempic? Over 100 million Americans, and possibly many more, could benefit from GLP-1 drugs. When can they...
6 months ago
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6 months ago
Over 100 million Americans, and possibly many more, could benefit from GLP-1 drugs. When can they expect to get them?
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Sins of the Children The circle of life on Chelicer 14d.
7 months ago
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The Misery Bomb Children across the Western world are getting less happy. If we can’t find a way to reverse the...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Children across the Western world are getting less happy. If we can’t find a way to reverse the trend, it might have an outsized impact on their future.
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Can You Trust An AI Press Release? Of course not. Here’s how leading AI labs mislead consumers, journalists, and each other.
7 months ago
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Through the Looking Glass, and What Zheludev et al. (2024) Found There Every time microbiologists develop a new way of looking, they find that there’s more to see than...
7 months ago
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Want Growth? Kill Small Businesses The central question of development economics is simple: how can poor countries become rich? The...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
The central question of development economics is simple: how can poor countries become rich? The answer is neither small-scale, targeted interventions nor broad generalizations about growth. Instead, we should focus on firms.
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The Next Revolution in Animal Agriculture The technologies of precision livestock farming could reshape animal agriculture. How will that go...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
The technologies of precision livestock farming could reshape animal agriculture. How will that go for the animals?
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Development Finance Done Right A veteran diplomat explains how to navigate the U.S. development ecosystem, master the interagency...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
A veteran diplomat explains how to navigate the U.S. development ecosystem, master the interagency process, and bring electricity to 200 million people.
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Why We Shut Down In international development, it’s not enough to try to do good. We need the tools to tell if a...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
In international development, it’s not enough to try to do good. We need the tools to tell if a project is really working — and the incentive to end it if it’s not.
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Artificial Wombs When? What to expect when you’re expecting in 2050.
7 months ago
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Better Living Through Group Chemistry Inside the San Francisco group house scene.
7 months ago
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Shutting the California Prison System’s Revolving Door Between 2009 and 2014, California passed a series of laws to reduce the population in its prison...
7 months ago
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7 months ago
Between 2009 and 2014, California passed a series of laws to reduce the population in its prison system, which for years had operated over capacity. Determining whether those laws worked was not a straightforward task.
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The EA-Progress Studies War is Here, and It’s a Constructive Dialogue! We’re hoping Marc Andreessen doesn’t read this and polarize everyone again.
7 months ago
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The “TESCREAL” Bungle The TESCREAL “bundle of ideologies” is purportedly essential to understand the race to build...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
The TESCREAL “bundle of ideologies” is purportedly essential to understand the race to build artificial intelligence, the ethical milieu of those building it, and the philosophical underpinnings behind Silicon Valley as a whole. But does the label actually tell us anything?
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When RAND Made Magic in Santa Monica RAND’s halcyon days lasted two decades, during which the corporation produced some of the most...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
RAND’s halcyon days lasted two decades, during which the corporation produced some of the most influential developments in science and American foreign policy. So how did it become just another think tank?
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California vs. Big Soda Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes work. But during the time it took to figure this out, enacting them...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes work. But during the time it took to figure this out, enacting them became much harder.
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The Fault in Our Forecasts It’s impossible to predict when an earthquake will strike. This puts seismologists in a nearly...
8 months ago
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8 months ago
It’s impossible to predict when an earthquake will strike. This puts seismologists in a nearly impossible bind: how can they convince the public to take earthquakes seriously without crying wolf?
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It’s 2024 and Drought is Optional In the early 20th century, the United States diverted and dammed nearly every major river that runs...
9 months ago
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9 months ago
In the early 20th century, the United States diverted and dammed nearly every major river that runs through the West, ushering in an era of unparalleled dominion over water. Today, California once again struggles with water scarcity — but solar energy could change all that.
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Why Is Everyone Suddenly Furious About AI Regulation? Please tell us, because we're stumped.
9 months ago
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The Highway to NIMBYism San Francisco’s history of collective decision-making helped prevent the city from being carved up...
9 months ago
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9 months ago
San Francisco’s history of collective decision-making helped prevent the city from being carved up by highways. Today, that same legacy prevents the city from building what it desperately needs: more housing.
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How to Make a Great Government Website Do lots of user research, travel to every county in California, iterate constantly, and troubleshoot...
9 months ago
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9 months ago
Do lots of user research, travel to every county in California, iterate constantly, and troubleshoot on Reddit. And maybe take Political Economy of Industrial Societies 100.
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Silicon Valley’s Gold Rush Roots Silicon Valley, purveyor of disruptive technologies, likes to think of itself as sui generis. But...
10 months ago
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10 months ago
Silicon Valley, purveyor of disruptive technologies, likes to think of itself as sui generis. But there’s a clear line from tech’s knowledge economy to the Bay Area’s first economy: gold mining.
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Manufacturing Bliss A growing community centered on the Bay Area is rediscovering the jhanas, a meditation technique...
10 months ago
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10 months ago
A growing community centered on the Bay Area is rediscovering the jhanas, a meditation technique that practitioners claim could upend how we think about the brain — and transform our lives in the process.
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Debugging Tech Journalism A huge proportion of tech journalism is characterized by scandals, sensationalism, and shoddy...
10 months ago
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10 months ago
A huge proportion of tech journalism is characterized by scandals, sensationalism, and shoddy research. Can we fix it?
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When Was the Last Time We Built a New City? California Forever wants to build a new city in Solano county. On paper, it would be an affordable,...
10 months ago
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10 months ago
California Forever wants to build a new city in Solano county. On paper, it would be an affordable, high-density urbanist wonderland — but can they actually pull it off?
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Golden States
10 months ago
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Moving Past Environmental Proceduralism The foundations of modern environmental legislation were laid in the early ‘70s. Some of these laws...
10 months ago
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10 months ago
The foundations of modern environmental legislation were laid in the early ‘70s. Some of these laws helped fix the ozone layer, clean up DDT, and fight lead pollution — while others are delaying the necessary transition to green energy. If the activists of fifty years ago had...
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How Not To Predict The Future Good forecasting thrives on a delicate balance of math, expertise, and…vibes.
11 months ago
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The Ruin of Mumbai Mumbai’s land use regulations are designed to keep population density low. Instead, they force...
11 months ago
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11 months ago
Mumbai’s land use regulations are designed to keep population density low. Instead, they force Mumbaikars into slums, while all of India pays the price.
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Why Isn’t Solar Scaling in Africa? The World Bank designed the Scaling Solar program to set Africa on a course to sustainable energy....
a year ago
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a year ago
The World Bank designed the Scaling Solar program to set Africa on a course to sustainable energy. Instead, it shed light on how a lack of transparency in the climate and development industry hampers progress.
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All Aboard the Bureaucracy Train The United States has the most expensive transportation infrastructure in the world. That’s because...
a year ago
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a year ago
The United States has the most expensive transportation infrastructure in the world. That’s because we refuse to learn from experts, other countries, and our own history.
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Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem Weeks after it was clear that Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, you could still make pennies on...
a year ago
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a year ago
Weeks after it was clear that Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, you could still make pennies on the dollar betting Joe Biden would win. Why doesn’t smart money drive out dumb money in election markets?
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PEPFAR and the Costs of Cost-Benefit Analysis In the early aughts, economists said it was a bad use of money to send antiretroviral drugs to treat...
a year ago
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a year ago
In the early aughts, economists said it was a bad use of money to send antiretroviral drugs to treat HIV in low-income countries. Twenty years later, we can ask why they got it wrong.
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Lies, Damned Lies, and Manometer Readings America’s HVAC labor force is plagued by dishonesty and frequently incapable of meeting industry...
a year ago
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a year ago
America’s HVAC labor force is plagued by dishonesty and frequently incapable of meeting industry standards. Interventions in indoor air quality are the next frontier in pandemic prevention — but are they up to the task?
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Democracy by Mistake Most political scientists see democracy as the natural consequence of economic development or the...
a year ago
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a year ago
Most political scientists see democracy as the natural consequence of economic development or the result of strategic and rational choice. A detailed look through history suggests democracy emerges as often as not by another path: human error.
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Why You’ve Never Been In A Plane Crash The United States leads the world in airline safety. That’s because of the way we assign blame when...
a year ago
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a year ago
The United States leads the world in airline safety. That’s because of the way we assign blame when accidents do happen.
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China’s Policy Failures China’s experimental policy regime catalyzed the country’s economic ascent. Today, the system seems...
a year ago
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a year ago
China’s experimental policy regime catalyzed the country’s economic ascent. Today, the system seems incapable of providing effective governance.
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Michael Lewis’s Blind Side In Going Infinite, the famed chronicler of American finance proves he’s more interested in myths...
a year ago
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a year ago
In Going Infinite, the famed chronicler of American finance proves he’s more interested in myths than morals — or even math.
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Oops
a year ago
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Fracking Eyeballs How an alliance between psychologists and advertisers at the turn of the 20th century taught us how...
a year ago
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a year ago
How an alliance between psychologists and advertisers at the turn of the 20th century taught us how to measure (and monetize) human attention.
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Mysticism & Empiricism The best way to predict if you’ll benefit from psychedelic therapy is a questionnaire asking if...
a year ago
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a year ago
The best way to predict if you’ll benefit from psychedelic therapy is a questionnaire asking if you’ve met God. Where did it come from, and what is it really measuring?
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You’re Invited to a Colonoscopy! Colonoscopies are the first-line method for preventing colorectal cancer in America —and almost...
a year ago
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a year ago
Colonoscopies are the first-line method for preventing colorectal cancer in America —and almost nowhere else. But do they work? We finally have a comprehensive trial, but it’s left gastroenterologists with more questions than answers.
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Intelligence Testing Everyone agrees that AIs are getting smarter — but it’s surprisingly difficult to measure by how...
a year ago
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a year ago
Everyone agrees that AIs are getting smarter — but it’s surprisingly difficult to measure by how much.
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Pew Problems A conversation about religion, fertility, and the American family.
a year ago
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Behind Closed Doors In 2020, we worried that COVID lockdowns might lead to an increase in domestic violence. Instead,...
a year ago
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a year ago
In 2020, we worried that COVID lockdowns might lead to an increase in domestic violence. Instead, the opposite occurred. Why did this happen — and why was it so hard to figure out?
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The Devil in the Details: Matthew Desmond’s Poverty by America Matthew Desmond’s Poverty, by America is one of the most celebrated books on the subject....
a year ago
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a year ago
Matthew Desmond’s Poverty, by America is one of the most celebrated books on the subject. Unfortunately, carelessness about the ways we measure poverty undercuts its main argument.
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From Warp Speed to 100 Days During the COVID pandemic, we learned to design vaccines within weeks. Now, the bottleneck is...
a year ago
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a year ago
During the COVID pandemic, we learned to design vaccines within weeks. Now, the bottleneck is testing that they work. To get even faster, we need innovations in clinical trial design.
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Half A Million Kinksters Can’t Be Wrong The story of how one independent researcher conducted the largest-ever survey on fetishes, and what...
a year ago
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a year ago
The story of how one independent researcher conducted the largest-ever survey on fetishes, and what it has to teach us about sex, pleasure, and social science methodology.
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Between the Lines: A History of the Most Important Concept in Global Poverty The global poverty line helps determine how billions of dollars in aid are allocated. But where did...
a year ago
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a year ago
The global poverty line helps determine how billions of dollars in aid are allocated. But where did the idea of measuring poverty come from — and how might it be holding us back?
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Methods Section
a year ago
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Emotional Intelligence Amplification Love in the time of chatbots.
a year ago
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The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth A conversation about what happens to the economy when intelligence becomes too cheap to meter.
a year ago
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The Puzzle of Non-Proliferation Today, only nine countries have nuclear weapons. That outcome was hardly inevitable, and the story...
a year ago
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a year ago
Today, only nine countries have nuclear weapons. That outcome was hardly inevitable, and the story of how we arrived there holds important lessons for AI.
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The Transistor Cliff Moore’s law may be coming to an end. What happens to AI progress if it does?
a year ago
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How We Can Regulate AI The chips used to train the most advanced AIs are scarce, expensive, and trackable — giving...
a year ago
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a year ago
The chips used to train the most advanced AIs are scarce, expensive, and trackable — giving regulators a path forward.
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Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart AIs Are? Scientists have repeatedly failed to recognize the complexity of animal cognition. Will we make the...
a year ago
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a year ago
Scientists have repeatedly failed to recognize the complexity of animal cognition. Will we make the same mistakes with AI?
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How Long Until Armageddon? Scientists, generals, and politicians all failed to accurately predict when the Soviets would get...
a year ago
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a year ago
Scientists, generals, and politicians all failed to accurately predict when the Soviets would get the bomb. Could they have done any better?
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Through a Glass Darkly Nobody predicted the AI revolution, except for the 352 experts who were asked to predict it.
a year ago
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A Field Guide to AI Safety AI safety is starting to go mainstream, but the researchers who’ve been immersed in it for over a...
a year ago
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a year ago
AI safety is starting to go mainstream, but the researchers who’ve been immersed in it for over a decade still have strong disagreements.
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What We Get Wrong About AI & China Everyone’s afraid of what China can and will do with AI. On the ground, the picture looks a lot more...
a year ago
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a year ago
Everyone’s afraid of what China can and will do with AI. On the ground, the picture looks a lot more complicated.
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Crash Testing GPT-4 Can we tell if an AI model is safe before it’s released? The group that tested GPT–4 is trying to...
a year ago
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a year ago
Can we tell if an AI model is safe before it’s released? The group that tested GPT–4 is trying to figure out how.
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AI Isn’t Coming for Tech Jobs—Yet LLMs can make a developer’s job easier and faster. When might they make them obsolete?
a year ago
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Growing Up Overnight A look at the past few years of LLM progress.
a year ago
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Why Worry?
a year ago
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Is Cultivated Meat For Real? Cultivated meat faces a wall of scientific skepticism, but investors haven’t been deterred. A decade...
a year ago
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a year ago
Cultivated meat faces a wall of scientific skepticism, but investors haven’t been deterred. A decade in, how close are we to seeing it on our plates?
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Salt, Sugar, Water, Zinc: How Scientists Learned to Treat the 20th Century’s Biggest Killer of... Oral rehydration therapy is now the standard treatment for dehydration. It’s saved millions of...
a year ago
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a year ago
Oral rehydration therapy is now the standard treatment for dehydration. It’s saved millions of lives, and can be prepared at home in minutes. So why did it take so long to discover?
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My Primal Scream of Rage: The Big Alcohol Study That Didn't Happen Five years ago, the National Institutes of Health cancelled the largest study on alcohol ever...
a year ago
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a year ago
Five years ago, the National Institutes of Health cancelled the largest study on alcohol ever planned. Here’s why — and why you should be mad too.
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Read This, Not That: The Hidden Cost of Nutrition Misinformation Our daily lives are inundated with misleading claims about nutrition. That’s not just distracting —...
a year ago
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a year ago
Our daily lives are inundated with misleading claims about nutrition. That’s not just distracting — it’s also harming our health.
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America Doesn’t Know Tofu China has spent millennia exploring the culinary possibilities of soybean curds. The West has barely...
a year ago
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a year ago
China has spent millennia exploring the culinary possibilities of soybean curds. The West has barely scratched the surface.
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Cows vs. Chemists: The Health Debates Over Plant-Based Meat Everyone wants to know if plant-based meats are good for you. Despite what you might read, no one...
a year ago
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What I Won’t Eat A reflection on ethics, animal cognition, and chocolate cake.
a year ago
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Animal Welfare in the Anthropocene Wild animals outnumber farmed animals by orders of magnitude. Are we obligated to help them? And...
a year ago
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a year ago
Wild animals outnumber farmed animals by orders of magnitude. Are we obligated to help them? And even if we wanted to, do we know how?
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Beyond Staple Grains The Green Revolution saved a billion lives, but it left a legacy of homogenous diets and distorted...
a year ago
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a year ago
The Green Revolution saved a billion lives, but it left a legacy of homogenous diets and distorted agricultural markets. What impact has this had on global health — and how can we move forward?
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Feeding the World Without Sunlight In 1815, the largest volcanic eruption in recorded history led to harvest failures across the globe....
a year ago
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a year ago
In 1815, the largest volcanic eruption in recorded history led to harvest failures across the globe. Today, a nuclear winter could bring the global food system crashing down. Is it possible to feed the world in the aftermath of a catastrophe?
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The Virtue of Wonder: Martha Nussbaum’s Justice for Animals Martha Nussbaum’s latest book challenges us to change the way we think — and feel — about animals....
a year ago
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a year ago
Martha Nussbaum’s latest book challenges us to change the way we think — and feel — about animals. What role can wonder and awe play when pathos comes up short?
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What Comes After COVID The next pandemic is coming. Is it possible to say when?
a year ago
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Aperitif
a year ago
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They May as Well Grow on Trees The Future of Genetically Engineered Livestock
over a year ago
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The Illogic of Nuclear Escalation How much is enough? It’s the most basic question in the nuclear arms race. For over sixty years, few...
over a year ago
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over a year ago
How much is enough? It’s the most basic question in the nuclear arms race. For over sixty years, few have asked it, and even fewer have received an answer.
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China’s Silicon Future China dreams of competing with global superpowers in the semiconductor industry. Whether its efforts...
over a year ago
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over a year ago
China dreams of competing with global superpowers in the semiconductor industry. Whether its efforts will succeed is far from clear.
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Is Wine Fake? Wine commands wealth, prestige, and attention from aficionados. How much of what they admire is in...
over a year ago
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over a year ago
Wine commands wealth, prestige, and attention from aficionados. How much of what they admire is in their heads?
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Why Isn’t the Whole World Rich? The question of why some countries join the developed world while others remain in poverty has vexed...
over a year ago
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over a year ago
The question of why some countries join the developed world while others remain in poverty has vexed economists for decades. What makes it so hard to answer?
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Rebuilding After the Replication Crisis Over a decade has passed since scientists realized many of their studies were failing to replicate....
over a year ago
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over a year ago
Over a decade has passed since scientists realized many of their studies were failing to replicate. How well have their attempts to fix the problem actually worked?
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How to Prevent the Next Pandemic Modern technology makes bioterrorism seem increasingly likely. If we can get our act together, there...
over a year ago
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over a year ago
Modern technology makes bioterrorism seem increasingly likely. If we can get our act together, there are smart ways to prevent it.
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Making Sense of Moral Change A conversation about abolitionism, moral progress, and the pitfalls of historical counterfactuals.
over a year ago
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What We Owe The Future William MacAskill’s latest book presents itself as an introduction to the burgeoning longtermist...
over a year ago
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over a year ago
William MacAskill’s latest book presents itself as an introduction to the burgeoning longtermist movement. But his views are eccentric – even within the movement he founded.
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Modeling the End of Monkeypox The journalistic and public health response to the US monkeypox outbreak was noisy and contentious....
over a year ago
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over a year ago
The journalistic and public health response to the US monkeypox outbreak was noisy and contentious. What tools do we have for predicting its spread?
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Note to the Reader
over a year ago