I have a non-recently post ready to write, any day now… Reading This was a strong month for reading: I finished The Hidden Wealth of Nations, Useful Not True, and Cyberlibertarianism. I had a book club that read Cyberlibertarianism so we discussed it last week. I have a lot of qualms with the book, and gave it two stars for that reason. But I will admit that it’s taking up space in my mind. The ‘cyberlibertarian’ ideology was familiar to me before reading it. The book’s critique of it didn’t shift my thinking that much. But I have been thinking a lot about what it argued for, which is a world in which the government has very extensive powers – to limit what is said online, to regulate which companies can even create forums or social media platforms. He also believed that a government should be able to decrypt and read conversations between private citizens. It’s a very different idea of government power than what I’m used to, and well outside my comfort zone. I think it’s interesting to consider these things: the government probably should have some control of some kinds of speech, and in some cases it’s useful to have the FBI tapping the phones of drug smugglers or terrorists. How do we really define what’s acceptable and what isn’t? I don’t know, I want to do more thinking about the uncomfortable things that nevertheless may be necessary for functioning of society. Besides that, there is so much to read. This month I added a lot of news subscriptions to my pile, which I think is now Hell Gate, Wired, NYTimes, Bloomberg, 404 Media, The Verge, and a bunch of newsletters. This interview with Stephanie Kelton, who is at the forefront of the Modern Monetary Theory movement in America, and wrote the very good book The Deficit Myth. This 404 Media story on an AI-generated ‘true crime’ YouTube channel is great because the team at 404 Media does both deep research and they interrogate their sources. Nathan Tankus has always been good but in this era he’s essential reading. His piece on Fort Knox is quick and snappy. His others are more involved but always worth reading. Listening We’ve been rewatching The Bear and admiring the dad-rock soundtrack. This Nine Inch Nails track shows up at the end of a season: And this Eno track: Besides that, this track from Smino played at a local cocktail bar. The bars at 0:45 sound like they’re tumbling downhill in a delightful way. Watching So I bought a sewing machine in February, a beautiful old Kenmore 158-series, produced in the 1970s in Japan. It’s awesome. How sewing machines work is amazing, as this video lays out. There’s so much coordinated motion happening for every stitch, and the machines are so well-designed that they last for decades easily. Besides that, I just watched The Apprentice, which I really did not like. Elsewhere I was on a podcast with Jeremy Jung, taking about Placemark! My post in the /micro/ section, All Hat No Cowboy, probably could have or should have been a blog post, but I was feeling skittish about being too anti-AI on the main.

I am not going to repeat the news. But man, things are really, really bad and getting worse in America. It’s all so unendingly stupid and evil. The tech industry is being horrible, too. Wishing strength to the people who are much more exposed to the chaos than I am. Reading A Confederacy of Dunces was such a perfect novel. It was pure escapism, over-the-top comedy, and such an unusual artifact, that was sadly only appreciated posthumously. Very earnestly I believe that despite greater access to power and resources, the box labeled “socially acceptable ways to be a man” is much smaller than the box labeled “socially acceptable ways to be a woman.” This article on the distinction between patriarchy and men was an interesting read. With the whole… politics out there, it’s easy to go off the rails with any discussion about men and women and whether either have it easy or hard. The same author wrote this good article about declining male enrollment in college. I think both are worth a read. Whenever I read this kind of article, I’m reminded of how limited and mostly fortunate my own experience is. There’s a big difference, I think, in how vigorously you have to perform your gender in some red state where everyone owns a pickup truck, versus a major city where the roles are a little more fluid. Plus, I’ve been extremely fortunate to have a lot of friends and genuine open conversations about feelings with other men. I wish that was the norm! On Having a Maximum Wealth was right up my alley. I’m reading another one of the new-French-economist books right now, and am still fascinated by the prospect of wealth taxes. My friend David has started a local newsletter for Richmond, Virginia, and written a good piece about public surveillance. Construction Physics is consistently great, and their investigation of why skyscrapers are all glass boxes is no exception. Watching David Lynch was so great. We watched his film Lost Highway a few days after he passed, and it was even better than I had remembered it. Norm Macdonald’s extremely long jokes on late-night talk shows have been getting me through the days. Listening This song by the The Hard Quartet – a supergroup of Emmett Kelly, Stephen Malkmus (Pavement), Matt Sweeney and Jim White. It’s such a loving, tender bit of nonsense, very golden-age Pavement. They also have this nice chill song: I came across this SML album via Hearing Things, which has been highlighting a lot of good music. Small Medium Large by SML It’s a pretty good time for these independent high-quality art websites. Colossal has done the same for the art world and highlights good new art: I really want to make it out to see the Nick Cave (not the musician) art show while it’s in New York.

I was just enjoying Simon Willison’s predictions and, heck, why not. 1: The web becomes adversarial to AI The history of search engines is sort of an arms race between websites and search engines. Back in the early 2000s, juicing your ranking on search engines was pretty easy - you could put a bunch of junk in your meta description tags or put some text with lots of keywords on each page and make that text really tiny and transparent so users didn’t notice it but Google did. I doubt that Perplexity’s userbase is that big but Perplexity users are probably a lot wealthier on average than Google’s, and there’s some edge to be achieved by getting Perplexity to rank your content highly or recommend your website. I’ve already noticed some search results including links to content farms. There are handful of startups that do this already, but the prediction is: the average marketing exec at a consumer brand will put some of their budget to work on fooling AI. That means serving different content to AI scrapers, maybe using some twist on Glaze and other forms of adversarial image processing to make their marketing images more tantalizing to the bots. Websites will be increasingly aware that they’re being consumed by AI, and they will have a vested interest in messing with the way AI ‘perceives’ them. As Simon notes in his predictions, AIs are gullible: and that’s before there are widespread efforts to fool them. There’s probably some way to detect an AI scraper, give it a special payload, and trick it into recommending your brand of razors whenever anyone asks, and once someone figures it out this will be the marketing trend of the decade. 2: Copyright nihilism breeds a return to physical-only media The latest lawsuit about Meta’s use of pirated books, allegedly with Mark Zuckerberg’s explicit permission, if true, will be another reason to lose faith in the American legal system’s intellectual property system entirely. We’ve only seen it used to punish individuals and protect corporations, regardless of the facts and damages, and there’s no reason to believe it will do anything different (POSIWID). The result, besides an uptick in nihilism, could be a rejuvenation of physical-only releases. New albums only released on vinyl. Books only available in paperback format. More private screenings of hip movies. When all digital records are part of the ‘training dataset,’ a niche, hipster subset will be drawn to things that aren’t as easily captured and reproduced. This is parallel, to the state of closed-source models from Anthropic or OpenAI. They’re never distributed or run locally. They exist as bytes on some hard drive and in some massive GPU’s memory in some datacenter, and there aren’t Bittorrents pirating them because they’re kept away from people, not because of the power of copyright law. What can be accessed can be copied, so secrecy and inaccessibility is valuable. 3: American tech companies will pull out of Europe because they want to do acquisitions The incoming political administration will probably bring an end to Lina Khan’s era of the FTC, and era in which the FTC did stuff. We will go back to a ‘hands off’ policy in which big companies will acquire each other pretty often without much government interference. But, even in Khan’s era, the real nail in the coffin for one of the biggest acquisitions - Adobe’s attempt to buy Figma – was regulators from the EU and UK. Those regulators will probably keep doing stuff, so I think it’s likely that the next time some company wants to acquire a close competitor, they just close up shop in the EU, maybe with a long-term plan to return. 4: The tech industry’s ‘DEI backlash’ will run up against reality The reality is that the gap between women and men in terms of college degrees is really big: “Today, 47% of U.S. women ages 25 to 34 have a bachelor’s degree, compared with 37% of men.” And that a great deal of the tech industry’s workforce is made of up highly-skilled people who are on H-1B visas. The synthesis will be that tech workers will be more diverse, in some respects, but by stripping away the bare-bones protections around their presence, companies will keep them in a more vulnerable and exploitable position. But hard right-wingers will have plenty to complain about because these companies will continue to look less white and male, because the labor pool is not that. 5: Local-first will have a breakthrough moment I think that Zero Sync has a good chance at cracking this really hard problem. So does electric and maybe jazz, too. The gap between the dream of local-first apps and the reality has been wide, but I think projects are starting to come to grips with a few hard truths: Full decentralization is not worth it. You need to design for syncing a subset of the data, not the entire dataset. You need an approach to schema evolution and permission checking These systems are getting there. We could see a big, Figma-level application built on Zero this year that will set the standard for future web application architecture. 6: Local, small AI models will be a big deal Embedding models are cool as heck. New text-to-speech and speech-to-text models are dramatically better than what came before. Image segmentation is getting a lot better. There’s a lot of stuff that is coming out of this boom that will be able to scale down to a small model that runs on a phone, browser, or at least on our own web servers without having to call out to OpenAI or Anthropic APIs. It’ll make sense for costs, performance, and security. Candle is a really interesting effort in this area. Mini predictions Substack will re-bundle news. People are tired of subscribing to individual newsletters. Substack will introduce some ~$20/month plan that gives you access to all of the newsletters that participate in this new pricing model. TypeScript gets a zeitwork equivalent and lots of people use it. Same as how prettier brought full code formatting from TypeScript, autoloading is the kind of thing that once you have it, it’s magic. What if you could just write <SomeComponent /> in your React app and didn’t have to import it? I think this would be extremely addictive and catch on fast. Node.js will fend off its competitors. Even though Val Town is built around Deno’s magic, I’ve been very impressed that Node.js is keeping up. They’ve introduced permissions, just like Deno, and native TypeScript support, just like the upstarts. Bun and Deno will keep gaining adherents, but Node.js has a long future ahead of it. Another US city starts seriously considering congestion pricing. For all the chatter and terrible discourse around the plan, it is obviously a good idea and it will work, as it has in every other case, and inspire other cities to do the same. Stripe will IPO. They’re still killing it, but they’re killing it in an established, repeatable way that public markets will like, and will let up the pressure on the many, many people who own their stock.

I still use Bandcamp almost exclusively to buy music, and keep a big library of MP3s. The downside is that this marks me as a weirdo, but otherwise it’s great and has been working well for me. Since I last wrote about it, Bandcamp was acquired by Epic games (?) and then acquired from them by Songtradr, and its employees are trying to get recognized as a union. Times are changing and Bandcamp is no longer a lovely indie company, but it’s still a heck of a lot better than Spotify. People (who?) are sharing their ‘Spotify wrapped’ auto-generated compilations and I wanted the same, for my Bandcamp purchases, so I built it on Val Town. You can create your own! Or edit the code of the tool that generates them. Because of API limitations – really, the absence of an API – it requires you to copy & paste content from your purchases page, but isn’t copy-and-paste really a kind of API? Anyway: Vampire Empire / Born For Loving You by Big Thief Patterns by Pool Boys Acadia by Yasmin Williams Cascade by Floating Points of course i still love you by Darwin Deez (pre-order) 4 | 2 | 3 by MIZU Son by Rosie Lowe & Duval Timothy Imaginal Disk by Magdalena Bay Dirty Projectors by Dirty Projectors Green Disco by Justine Electra Daedalus by Daedelus You Look A Lot Like Me (2016) by Mal Blum Big City Boys by Cailin Pitt Promises by Floating Points, Pharoah Sanders & The London Symphony Orchestra Windswept by Photay Jessie Mae Hemphill by Jessie Mae Hemphill Rituals by Ishmael Ensemble 1992 - 2001 by Acetone Final Summer by Cloud Nothings Bright Future by Adrianne Lenker La For​ê​t (2024) by Xiu Xiu Frog Poems by Mister Goblin Living is Easy by Agriculture Again by Oneohtrix Point Never Put The Shine On by CocoRosie The Light Is On You Return by Ben Levin Mercurial World by Magdalena Bay Burn It Down by Lovebirds Room 25 by Noname Wall Of Eyes by The Smile Forest Scenes by MIZU Looking back on the year, I like how I can remember a few of these albums from my first exposure to them in odd places - I heard Jessie Mae Hemphill playing in a Chipotle, and Rosie Lowe playing in my hair salon. It was apparently a big year for instrumental, electronic, minimalist music. The only ‘rock’ album that hooked me was Wall of Eyes, and the only pop album that made an impact was Imaginal Disk - the fuzzy outro of Image is something I keep re-listening to. MIZU has been on heavy rotation, too – the only of these artists that I learned about by seeing them live - she opened for Tim Hecker and I think made a lot of fans there with a really theatric and heavy performance. Buy some music! Listen to it repeatedly, and put it in your MP3 player!